Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q3 2025, with a significant increase in net profit compared to the previous quarter, driven by inventory gains and improved gross margins [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the exit of small refineries, improving the refining landscape and providing substantial recovery potential for the refining sector [6] - The polyester sector is facing challenges due to oversupply, but industry cooperation is anticipated to lead to a recovery in profitability [6] - The company has concluded large capital expenditures, and with improving cash flow, dividends are expected to increase, currently yielding 3.1% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 243.57 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.0% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 8.04 billion in 2025, reflecting a 14.2% increase year-on-year [5] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.14 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 15 [5] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 16.36%, an increase of 8.58 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 11.5% in 2025 to 14.7% by 2027 [5] Company Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 157.38 billion, down 11.46% year-on-year, but net profit was 5.02 billion, only down 1.61% year-on-year [6] - In Q3 2025, the company’s revenue was 53.50 billion, a decrease of 17.98% year-on-year but an increase of 14.15% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The refining margin for Q3 2025 was estimated at 1,575 yuan/ton, up 219 yuan/ton from the previous quarter [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [6] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with a notable recovery in Q3 2025 driven by "anti-involution" policies that are expected to enhance the refining landscape [6] - The report anticipates a significant recovery in refining margins due to the exit of less competitive domestic refineries and a decline in overseas refining capacity [6] - The company has completed major capital expenditures, leading to improved cash flow and increased dividends for shareholders, with a current dividend yield of 3.1% [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 243.57 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.0% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 8.04 billion in 2025, reflecting a 14.2% increase year-on-year [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.14 yuan in 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times [5] - The gross margin is expected to be 11.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.5% [5] - The company achieved a gross margin of 16.36% in Q3 2025, up 8.58 percentage points year-on-year [6] Market Data - As of October 27, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 17.07 yuan, with a market capitalization of 120.157 billion [6] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.9 and a dividend yield of 3.1% based on the most recent dividend announcements [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA prices rebounded rapidly due to policy expectations, with cost support from rising crude oil prices, high polyester downstream demand, and potential overseas demand recovery after positive signals from China - US economic and trade negotiations [2] - The price of ethylene glycol is under continuous pressure due to low port inventory, limited port arrivals, expected decline in overseas imports, and domestic device commissioning, but the overall polyester inventory is in good condition and downstream weaving load is maintained [2] - It is expected that polyester will run weakly as the polyester peak season is ending and the fundamentals of crude oil are declining [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price increased from 464.9 yuan/barrel on October 24, 2025, to 468.9 yuan/barrel on October 27, 2025, with a change of 4.00 yuan/barrel [2] - PTA - SC increased from 1139.5 yuan/ton to 1208.5 yuan/ton, with a change of 68.93 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3373 to 1.3546, with a change of 0.0174 [2] - CFR China PX increased from 815 to 821, with a change of 6; PX - naphtha spread increased from 234 to 240, with a change of 6 [2] - PTA main contract futures price increased from 4518 yuan/ton to 4616 yuan/ton, with a change of 98.0 yuan/ton; PTA spot price increased from 4450 to 4505, with a change of 55.0 yuan/ton [2] - PTA spot processing fee increased from 75.9 yuan/ton to 111.7 yuan/ton, with a change of 35.8 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee increased from 153.9 yuan/ton to 222.7 yuan/ton, with a change of 68.8 yuan/ton [2] - MEG main contract futures price increased from 4077 yuan/ton to 4109 yuan/ton, with a change of 32.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha was at (131.72) yuan/ton on October 24 and (131.91) yuan/ton on October 27, with a change of - 0.2 yuan/ton [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4187 to 4183, with a change of - 4.0 yuan/ton [2] Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX operating rate remained at 84.62%; PTA operating rate remained at 79.46%; MEG operating rate increased from 61.89% to 63.50%, with a change of 1.61% [2] - Polyester load decreased from 89.38% to 89.28%, with a change of - 0.10% [2] Product Price and Cash - flow - POY150D/48F price remained at 6400; POY cash - flow decreased from (57) to (103), with a change of - 46.0 [2] - FDY150D/96F price remained at 6655; FDY cash - flow decreased from (302) to (348), with a change of - 46.0 [2] - DTY150D/48F price increased from 7720 to 7730, with a change of 10.0; DTY cash - flow decreased from 63 to 27, with a change of - 36.0 [2] - Long - filament sales decreased from 101% to 70%, with a change of - 31% [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6400 to 6405, with a change of 5; polyester staple fiber cash - flow decreased from 293 to 252, with a change of - 41.0 [2] - Short - fiber sales decreased from 83% to 68%, with a change of - 15% [2] - Semi - bright chip price increased from 5525 to 5545, with a change of 20.0; chip cash - flow decreased from (32) to (58), with a change of - 26.0 [2] - Chip sales increased from 54% to 222%, with a change of 168% [2] Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile. Specifically, the price of crude oil is expected to return to a volatile state due to OPEC+'s production increase plan and concerns about weak demand; the prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are also expected to be volatile due to various factors such as supply and demand and cost [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The WTI December contract closed down $0.19 to $61.31 per barrel, a decline of 0.31%. The Brent December contract closed down $0.32 to $65.62 per barrel, a decline of 0.49%. The SC2512 closed at 464.9 yuan per barrel, down 3.5 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.75%. OPEC+ tends to moderately increase production in December. Eight member countries have increased their production targets by a total of 2.7 million barrels per day through a series of monthly production increases, accounting for about 2.5% of global supply. The market's concern about weak demand continues to suppress oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices will return to a volatile state in the short term [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.28% at 2,842 yuan per ton; the main low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 closed up 1.8% at 3,275 yuan per ton. Due to weak downstream demand and sufficient recent supply, the Asian low-sulfur market structure has weakened. The Asian high-sulfur market is expected to remain stable. In the short term, the absolute prices of FU and LU will rebound following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro factors [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3,295 yuan per ton. From the perspective of refinery production schedules in early November, the supply pressure will be alleviated. In the short term, the absolute price of BU will rebound following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro factors [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,616 yuan per ton yesterday, up 2.17%; EG2601 closed at 4,109 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.78%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are generally good, with an average production and sales estimate of about 70%. The fundamentals of TA and EG have improved. In the short term, the prices of polyester products are expected to be volatile [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 rose 45 yuan per ton to 15,380 yuan per ton, and the main NR contract rose 35 yuan per ton to 12,540 yuan per ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased. Macroscopically, the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, and it is expected that rubber prices will be strongly volatile [3] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan per ton. In the short term, the port supply is still relatively high, and the short-term rebound of crude oil has a positive impact on the valuation of chemicals. Therefore, the performance of methanol may tend to be volatile [4] - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,560 - 6,650 yuan per ton. In the short term, the production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short-term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile stage [4] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the price of the PVC market in East China fluctuated slightly. The supply remains at a high level, the domestic demand has slowed down, and the export is expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under the suppression of high inventory [5] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 28, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [6] 3.3 Market News - Market participants said that OPEC+ tends to moderately increase production in December to regain market share. Eight member countries have increased their production targets by a total of 2.7 million barrels per day through a series of monthly production increases, accounting for about 2.5% of global supply [10] - Morgan Stanley said that the fundamentals of the oil market are expected to return to balance from an oversupply state in the second half of next year [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, paraxylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][23] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [24][26][30][32][33][36] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [38][40][43][46][49][50][53] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [55][59][61][62] - **Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, and LLDPE production profit [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [69][70][71][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On October 23, the EU's 19th - round sanctions on Russia drove up the price of Brent crude oil, increasing the cost of PX and PTA. For PX, it is expected to be short - term bullish with high operating rates. For PTA, supply increases while demand stabilizes, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. For MEG, supply is expected to rise, and the market will become more balanced. For short - fiber and bottle - chip, short - term demand is okay, but long - term demand may weaken [8]. - Trading strategies for all products suggest short - term shock. After the weakening of demand and oil prices, there are opportunities to short at high prices. Arbitrage is on hold, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX**: Supply and demand both increase. Spot floating prices are strong, and paper - goods maintain a back structure. Operating rates will remain high. Short - term is bullish, and look for short - selling opportunities when demand and oil prices weaken [8]. - **PTA**: Supply increases while demand stabilizes. Social inventory has been rising since late September. Processing fees have dropped to within 100 yuan/ton. Operating rates are expected to be stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation [8]. - **MEG**: Port pick - up is stable, and the basis is strong. Supply has decreased this week but is expected to increase. The market will become more balanced [8]. - **Short - fiber**: Supply and demand are stable, with good processing fees. Domestic demand is strong, but export orders are slow. Demand support may be limited in the future [8]. - **Bottle - chip**: Operating rates are stable, with good transactions and slightly stronger processing fees. Future demand may decline as it transitions from peak to off - peak season [8]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - **Overall**: Operating rates are stable, raw material prices rise, and processing fees are compressed. Sales are good due to terminal replenishment [12]. - **Filament**: Sales are good, operating rates change little, and inventory decreases significantly. Operating rates are around 92.4%, and average inventory days are 17.6 days, a decrease of 6.8 days week - on - week [17]. - **Bottle - chip**: Operating rates are stable, transactions are good, and processing fees are slightly stronger. Future replenishment may weaken [19]. - **Short - fiber**: Supply and demand are stable, factory and downstream inventory decline, and processing fees are good. Domestic demand is strong, but new export orders are slow, and demand support may be limited [26]. 2.2 PX - **Price**: Spot floating prices are strong, and paper - goods maintain a back structure [27]. - **Profit**: Naphtha cracking spreads are compressed, and long - and short - process device profits are strong. Long - process device profits are around $240/ton, and short - process device profits are over $100/ton [29]. - **Operating rate**: It is at a high level and will continue to rise. Many devices are scheduled to restart [31]. 2.3 PTA - **Basis and monthly spread**: They are weak, and social inventory has been rising since late September [33]. - **Supply and demand**: Supply increases while demand stabilizes. Processing fees have dropped to a new low this year, within 100 yuan/ton. Operating rates are expected to be stable [37]. 2.4 MEG - **Basis**: It is strong due to stable port pick - up and low arrivals [38]. - **Supply**: Operating rates have decreased this week but are expected to increase as many devices are scheduled to restart [48]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of the PX industry chain, including naphtha, pure benzene, etc. [52]. - **Spreads and profits**: It includes variety spreads, disproportionation - blending spreads, regional spreads, etc. [54][58][60]. 3.2 PTA - **Price**: It shows the spot prices of PTA and PX and related spreads and profits [72]. - **Supply and demand**: It shows the load indexes of PTA and polyester and inventory data [82][84]. 3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the spot price of ethylene glycol and related raw material prices [86]. - **Spreads and profits**: It includes various spreads and profits such as internal - external spreads and oil - making profits [88][97]. - **Supply and demand**: It shows the load index and inventory data [104][106]. 3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: It includes weighted profits, filament profits, etc. [109]. - **Supply**: It shows the load data of polyester, bottle - chip, etc. [111]. - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory days of filament, short - fiber, etc. [114]. - **Demand**: It includes the operating rates of downstream industries such as printing and dyeing, weaving, and related inventory and sales data [117][122][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not specified in the report [1] - Methanol: Not specified in the report [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified in the report [1] - Styrene: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1][9] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the disk [1] - Plastic: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - PVC: Not specified in the report [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - PX: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - PTA: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the disk [1] - Short - fiber: ★☆★, suggesting a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current disk [1] - Glass: Not specified in the report [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but with limited operability on the disk [1] - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a bearish trend [1] 2. Core Views - The prices of various chemical products are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and market sentiment. For example, short - term oil price fluctuations affect the cost of some products, and supply - side changes and downstream demand trends determine the price trends of different products [2][3][5] - Different products have different price trends and investment suggestions. Some products are expected to have long - term downward pressure due to over - supply, while others may have short - term rebounds due to certain events but still face long - term challenges [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly. Short - term oil price increases support costs, but supply pressure is difficult to relieve due to expected increases in supply [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures close slightly higher. For polyethylene, domestic supply increases, demand has both positive and negative factors, and cost and macro - news support the market. For polypropylene, supply is abundant, and downstream demand provides limited support [2] 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of traditional benzene is weak. Port inventory is decreasing, but mid - term import pressure is high. The focus is on port inventory accumulation [3] - Styrene futures fluctuate around the 5 - day moving average. Short - term oil price rebounds relieve cost pressure, but long - term price is suppressed by high inventory [3] 3.3 Polyester - PX and PTA prices are weak in the morning and rebound in the afternoon. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. Supply pressure is high. Based on the industry meeting news, there is an expectation of "anti - involution" [5] - Ethylene glycol production increases. The polyester industry chain rebounds, driving ethylene glycol up. Short - term negatives weaken, but mid - term inventory accumulation is expected [5] - Short - fiber has a good spot pattern, but may accumulate inventory again. Bottle - chip demand is weak, and long - term pressure comes from over - capacity [5] 3.4 Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures remain at a low level. Port inventory increases slightly, and the market is likely to maintain low - level fluctuations [6] - Urea price increase lacks momentum. Supply - demand imbalance persists, but there may be a phased rebound at low prices [6] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC price rises slightly at a low level. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may operate in a bottom - range [7] - Caustic soda price fluctuates at a low level. Supply pressure is high, and downstream demand is average, so the price is expected to remain low [7] 3.6 Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash price fluctuates strongly. Cost increases, supply is high, and it is recommended to be cautious when short - selling near the cost of traditional soda ash [8] - Glass price fluctuates narrowly. Inventory is increasing, and the price decline may be limited due to low valuation [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA prices rebounded slightly as crude oil prices recovered. The PTA supply side contracted due to low processing fees, and the polyester industry's profit was affected by over - capacity. However, the upward trend of crude oil prices supported PTA. The downstream polyester load remained above 87%, and the demand was slightly better than expected. The market is concerned about the impact of Sino - US negotiations on textile and clothing demand, and sanctions on some domestic refineries may affect PX supply [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remained low, and the arrival volume was limited. Overseas imports were expected to decline, but domestic plant production pressured the price. With the end of the polyester peak season and the downward trend of the crude oil fundamentals, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. 3) Summary Based on Related Catalogs a. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 459.7 yuan/barrel on October 23, 2025, to 464.9 yuan/barrel on October 24, 2025, an increase of 5.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread decreased by 27.79 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0121. The PTA主力期价 rose by 10 yuan/ton, the spot price rose by 25 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 12 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 remained unchanged [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased by 4, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 26 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 decreased by 18 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 1.2 yuan/ton, and the MEG inner - market price increased by 14 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price increased by 40 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F price increased by 35 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. 1.4D straight - spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the semi - gloss chip price remained unchanged [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The PX operating rate remained at 84.62% [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA operating rate increased from 76.95% to 79.46%, an increase of 2.51% [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG operating rate remained at 61.89% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. c. Product Cash Flow and Sales - **Polyester Filament**: POY cash flow increased by 14, FDY cash flow increased by 9, DTY cash flow decreased by 41, and the filament sales rate remained at 101% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased by 16, and the short - fiber sales rate remained at 68% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The chip cash flow decreased by 26, and the chip sales rate remained at 54% [2]. d. Device Maintenance An East China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA supply has contracted as domestic plants have adjusted due to low processing fees. The polyester industry's profit is still constrained by over - capacity from new plant commissions, but the rising crude oil price supports PTA, leading to a slight upward movement in PTA prices after hovering at low levels. [2] - The polyester downstream load remains above 87%, and high polyester load has not led to large inventory accumulation. The demand from the polyester downstream is slightly better than expected, with recent good sales in the polyester market. The market is concerned about the impact of China - US negotiations on textile and clothing demand. [2] - Later, overseas sanctions on some domestic refineries may affect PX supply, which requires continuous attention. [2] 3. Summary by Related Data Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 4425 to 4450, with a change of 25; MEG inner - market price rose from 4173 to 4187, a change of 14; PTA closing price went up from 4508 to 4518, a change of 10; MEG closing price decreased from 4095 to 4077, a change of - 18. [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6390 to 6400, a change of 10; short - fiber basis remained unchanged at 178; 11 - 12 spread decreased from 18 to 32, a change of - 14. [2] - Polyester bottle - chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets increased slightly, with the average price rising by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of bottle - chips (e.g., East China water bottle - chips, hot - filling polyester bottle - chips, carbonated - grade polyester bottle - chips) increased by 7. [2] - T32S pure - polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10300; T32S pure - polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3910 to 3900, a change of - 10; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16350. [2] Load and Production - Sales - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 93.90% to 94.40%; the polyester short - fiber production - sales rate decreased from 77.00% to 51.00%, a change of - 26.00%. [3] - The polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50%; the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) increased slightly from 51.00% to 51.50%. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving factors, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of PTA has a slight contraction, the demand side of polyester is slightly recovering, and the overall market is in an oscillating state. The future trend depends on the recovery of downstream demand and the evolution of global energy and trade policies [3][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The domestic crude oil import is disrupted, and some refineries and trading companies are sanctioned, which may affect the refinery's operation. The supply of domestic PTA devices has a slight contraction, the PTA basis is stable, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost is strengthening, and the PXN has also expanded [3]. - **Demand**: The downstream load of polyester maintains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the polyester sales are higher than expected. Whether the weaving can maintain the load in the future needs attention [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has significantly increased this week, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis quickly stabilizes, the PTA profit continues to shrink, and the liquidity of the PTA market is more tense than before [3]. - **Profit**: The price difference between PX and naphtha reaches $250, the processing fee of PTA still maintains at about 200 yuan, and the processing fee of PTA has shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the domestic maintenance season ends, the reforming device gradually recovers. Due to the rise in crude oil prices, the absolute price of PTA follows the rise [3]. - **Macro - policy**: On the morning of October 25 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States began the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia [3]. - **Investment view**: There is no obvious driving factor, and it is expected to be mainly oscillating upwards [3]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk attention: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Gasoline demand**: The US government shutdown may affect demand in the off - season. The load of North American refineries has declined, and the gasoline supply has shrunk. The gasoline peak season is over, and the high - octane premium remains [8][14][25]. - **Inventory and price**: The EIA US crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory are presented in the data. The gasoline cracking profit has increased significantly, and the refined oil price adjustment lags behind that of crude oil [8][9][65]. 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply contraction**: Some domestic companies are sanctioned, leading to a contraction in the supply of aromatic hydrocarbons. The mixed xylene market price has strengthened due to the increase in upstream costs, but the market faces the dual pressures of sufficient supply and weak demand [34][56]. - **Arbitrage opportunity**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatic hydrocarbons has opened, but physical trade has not yet occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price suppresses the disproportionation profit [45][51][58]. - **PX, PTA, and short - fiber and bottle - chip markets**: PX is the core of polyester industry price fluctuations, and its pricing is closely linked to futures. The PTA processing interval is long - term maintained below 500 yuan, and the option - based income - enhancement plan is more widely used. Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in the capacity release cycle, and overseas demand is an important variable [55][64]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is still at a low level, and the new domestic devices put into production have continuously pressured the price [79][85]. - **Polyester operation**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, and the weaving load performance exceeds expectations. The polyester production has recovered, but the downstream has entered the off - season [94][96].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical sector, with various indices showing significant weekly gains, such as the oil and gas resource index increasing by 3.80% and the oil and gas extraction service index rising by 10.04% [9][10]. Core Insights - Oil prices have risen primarily due to geopolitical factors, particularly the U.S. sanctions on Russian suppliers Rosneft and Lukeoil, which have raised concerns about short-term supply reductions [15][17]. - The report suggests that the actual impact of sanctions may be limited, as historical data indicates that trade flow is more affected than actual supply levels [17]. - The report highlights that the U.S. crude oil inventory has decreased, with a net import increase, and the active oil rig count remains stable at 418 [15][17]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The petrochemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.45%, with various sub-sectors showing positive performance [9]. - The average operating load of domestic refineries was reported at 80.89%, a slight decrease from the previous week [3]. Oil Sector - As of October 23, WTI crude was priced at $61.79, up by $4.33, while Brent crude was at $65.98, up by $3.90 [15]. - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventory by 961,000 barrels, with gasoline inventory down by 214,700 barrels [15]. Refining Sector - The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 512.62 yuan/ton, down by 35.2 yuan/ton from the previous period [3]. - The report indicates a weak domestic gasoline market, with average operating loads for Shandong independent refineries at 50.04% [3]. Polyester Sector - The report notes an increase in raw material prices, leading to a slight uptick in replenishment willingness among weaving enterprises [3]. - The average profit level for polyester filament POY150D was reported at 96.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80.44 yuan/ton from the previous week [3]. Olefin Sector - The domestic ethylene market average price was reported at 6,370 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 15 yuan/ton [3]. - The report anticipates continued weak consolidation in the ethylene market due to negative downstream profits [3].