在黄金和白银之后，铂和钯又加速上涨，成为近期贵金属品种中最耀眼的两颗"新星"。 有专家在接受证券时报记者采访时认为，铂市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需 求扩张，将对铂价形成较强支撑。 另一贵金属钯最近的涨势也十分惊人。行情数据显示，12月18日，广期所钯期货主力合约收盘大涨6.99%，盘中一度达476.60元/克。今年12月以来，该主 力合约累计涨幅高达27.69%。 对于钯，该专家在受访时认为，基本面趋松在中长期将对钯价形成一定压制，未来重点关注需求端铂钯替代进程演变。 贵金属"新宠"？铂和钯价格涨势加速 在黄金和白银之后，近期贵金属市场中，铂、钯价格亦水涨船高，涨势进一步加速。 在国内期货市场，以铂为例，12月18日，广期所铂期货主力合约价格再度大涨，当天收盘涨幅高达5.32%，盘中最高达549.90元/克，再创上市以来新高。 今年12月以来，广期所铂期货主力合约价格已累计上涨24.91%。 国际市场上，NYMEX铂期货主力合约价格目前已逼近2000美元/盎司，今年12月以来累计已上涨超过18%，年内价格已实现翻倍；而NYMEX钯期货主力合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is undergoing a structural re-evaluation driven by multiple macroeconomic and industrial forces, with gold nearing historical highs and silver continuously setting records, indicating a reallocation of assets by investors in response to economic slowdown expectations, changes in liquidity environment, and long-term uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - Silver has experienced a remarkable surge of nearly 130% since 2025, significantly outperforming gold's approximately 65% increase, reflecting a market re-pricing of silver's dual attributes, transitioning from a "high-volatility precious metal" to a more strategically significant asset class [1][4]. - The rising unemployment rate has strengthened expectations for future easing policies, highlighting the value of precious metals as a hedge, with silver's role as a risk buffer increasing in a context of marginal economic growth slowdown [1][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Structure - A persistent global silver supply deficit has become a long-term variable, with annual silver production remaining around 813 million ounces, while industrial demand continues to expand, particularly in sectors like renewable energy, transportation electrification, and computing infrastructure [1][4]. Group 3: Futures Market Dynamics - The silver futures trading volume is approaching that of gold, indicating a significant shift in market structure, which is viewed as a signal of structural change rather than short-term speculation [2][5]. - The demand for silver in industrial applications, such as photovoltaics, energy storage, electric vehicles, and data center construction, creates a continuous and rigid demand, enhancing price stability compared to gold, which primarily serves as a store of value [2][5]. Group 4: Liquidity and Market Environment - Ongoing interest rate cuts and asset purchase programs are improving the financial environment, with historical evidence suggesting that easing cycles tend to elevate the overall valuation of precious metals [3][6]. - The current precious metals market dynamics are not merely driven by short-term sentiment but are the result of macroeconomic policies, industrial upgrades, and market structure interactions, with the roles of silver and gold in the global asset system being redefined [3][6].

贵金属市场迎来了非凡的一年——黄金价格上涨超65%，白银价格涨幅更是突破100%。 加拿大蒙特利尔银行资本市场部（BMO Capital Markets）预计，2026年黄金的上涨趋势将持续。尽管黄 金和白银当前价格已处于或接近历史高位，分析师仍认为其存在上涨空间，且明确表示在各类贵金属中 更偏好黄金。 聚焦黄金：BMO上调2026年价格预期 在2026年官方大宗商品展望报告中，BMO预计黄金将在上半年触及全年高点。分析师当前预测，上半 年黄金均价将达到每盎司4600美元，较此前预期上调约5%。就全年而言，该行预计黄金均价为每盎司 4550美元，较此前预测上调约3%。 这一预测表明，BMO认为当前的黄金上涨周期尚未结束。经过一年约65%的涨幅，且创下近50次历史 新高后，分析师认为这轮牛市虽已进入后期，但尚未耗尽上涨动能。2026年，黄金仍将是贵金属板块中 的首选资产。 白银：涨超100%后预期趋于谨慎 BMO预测的核心，仍是宏观经济对黄金的支撑作用。分析师预计，美联储明年将继续降息。美国利率 下降通常会削弱美元并降低实际收益率，而在这种环境下，作为无息资产的黄金，历史上往往能获得良 好表现。 BMO指出，由 ...

美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒近期表态强化了这一预期。他明确指出，鉴于就业增长转弱和通胀风险下 降，"美联储仍有进一步降息的空间"。这与亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克的鹰派观点形成鲜明对比，内部 政策分歧反而放大市场对宽松政策的想象。 黄金作为零孳息资产，在利率下行周期中吸引力显著上升——降息将直接降低持有黄金的机会成本，驱 动资金从债市与其他资产流向金市。 关键节点预警：本周延迟公布的美国11月CPI与PCE通胀数据，若结果低于预期，可能成为 金价突破4400美元关口的导火索。 地缘政治紧张升级放大避险需求 除了经济基本面，骤然升温的地缘政治风险为贵金属涨势再添"一把火"。美国总统特朗普周二下令封锁 所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，进一步升级对马杜罗政府的施压。据美国记者塔克·卡尔森援引国会 消息，特朗普或在美国东部时间12月17日晚九点的全国讲话中正式对委内瑞拉宣战。 这一潜在军事行动风险瞬间点燃全球避险情绪。历史经验显示，地缘冲突尤其是涉及能源大国的危机， 往往引发黄金短期内急涨。市场波动率预期上升，推动投资者加速涌入黄金、白银等传统避险资产。 股市疲软也为金价提供间接支撑。周三，受人工智能融资忧虑拖累科技股，美股 ...

Core Viewpoint - Platinum prices have surged significantly this year, with a nearly 90% increase, surpassing gold's gains, indicating a potential shift in consumer interest towards platinum jewelry [1][2]. Price Trends - NYMEX platinum futures have risen by 105% this year, marking it as the second precious metal to double in price after silver [2]. - Since November, NYMEX platinum futures have increased by over 15%, with notable price jumps of 28% in June and 17% in September [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - A supply crisis emerged between May and July due to extreme weather in South Africa, aging mines, and power shortages, leading to a 13% year-on-year decline in global platinum supply [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a global platinum market shortage of 26.4 tons by 2025, despite a 4% expected decline in total demand to 244.8 tons [3]. Market Behavior - The supply shortage is exacerbated by geopolitical factors and inventory accumulation in response to U.S. tariff policies, tightening the London market [4]. - In Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, there is a noticeable shift from gold to platinum jewelry, with many retailers reducing gold displays in favor of platinum due to rising prices and consumer interest [5]. Consumer Sentiment - Discussions around platinum have increased on social media, with many consumers viewing it as a valuable investment alternative to gold, especially as gold prices rise due to added taxes [8]. - Retail prices for platinum jewelry have seen fluctuations, with current prices around 440 yuan per gram, up from 310 yuan earlier in the year [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that platinum prices may continue to rise, with estimates suggesting a potential price of $2,170 to $2,300 per ounce by 2026, significantly higher than other forecasts [11]. - The ongoing demand from both traditional automotive catalysts and emerging hydrogen energy applications is expected to further widen the supply-demand gap [11].

短期内，金银在触及阶段高位后出现技术性整理，属于上涨过程中的正常现象。随着关键经济数据陆续 公布，市场对未来利率路径的判断仍将反复修正，价格波动或有所加大。 对于后市，尽管白银相对黄金的估值已处于偏高区间，短线不排除出现轮动或回调，但在经济不确定性 尚未消散的环境下，贵金属作为对冲工具和资产多元化选择的核心地位依然稳固。综合来看， Mhmarkets迈汇认为，在货币政策预期、实物需求与资金流向多重因素支撑下，贵金属板块仍具备中长 期配置价值，本年度行情有望延续强势表现。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月16日，2025年以来，贵金属市场延续强势格局，白银表现尤为突出。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，制造业 数据不及预期令市场重新押注货币环境趋于宽松，美元承压之下，资金加速流入贵金属板块，成为本轮 行情的重要背景。 从价格结构来看，白银大幅跑赢黄金，金银比快速回落至历史相对低位区间。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，这 一变化反映出市场风险偏好阶段性抬升，资金更倾向于选择弹性更大的品种，以捕捉降息预期下的超额 收益。 制造业活动走弱被视为本轮上涨的直接催化剂。相关数据大幅低于市场预期，强化了对未来利率下行的 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the weakening of US economic indicators and the government shutdown increased economic uncertainty, supporting precious metal prices. The trading logic of precious metals kept changing, leading to price increases and differentiation, with silver outperforming gold and the gold - silver ratio being repaired [1][65]. - Looking ahead, the reshaping of the global trade pattern has damaged the US dollar's credit, and the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. In 2026, the Fed will still be in a rate - cut cycle, and the weakening US dollar index will support the financial attribute premium of precious metals. Silver, with its "strategic resource + financial attribute + industrial attribute" triple - drive, is expected to continue to rise with high volatility and outperform gold [1][65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **External and Internal Markets**: Both New York gold and silver and Shanghai gold and silver showed an overall upward - trending and volatile pattern in 2025. New York silver and Shanghai silver had greater increases than their gold counterparts. As of December 11, New York gold closed at $4258.30 per ounce with a 52.86% annual increase, and New York silver closed at $62.20 per ounce with a 101.40% increase. Shanghai gold closed at 956.40 yuan per gram with a 52.39% increase, and Shanghai silver closed at 14373.00 yuan per kilogram with an 88.75% increase [6][7]. - **Five Trading Phases**: The trading logic of the precious metal market in 2025 can be divided into five phases: from January to March, driven by risk - aversion sentiment; from April, affected by tariff policies; from June to September, focused on the repair of the gold - silver ratio and industrial attributes; from September to November, driven by rate - cut expectations; from November onwards, influenced by silver supply - demand relationships [9][10][12][13]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The gold - silver ratio continued to rise at the beginning of the year and then gradually repaired. Currently, it has returned to near the lowest level since 2020, and the ratios in domestic and foreign markets are gradually converging [17]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **US Economic Fundamentals** - **GDP**: The release of the Q3 2025 US GDP data was postponed. The Q2 real GDP annualized growth rate was 3.8%, and the Q3 forecasted growth rate was 3.9% [19]. - **PMI**: In November, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.2%, indicating accelerated contraction, while the service PMI was 52.6%, continuing to expand. However, the employment index in both sectors was in a contraction state [23][24]. - **Inflation**: Both CPI and PCE indices fluctuated but showed a cooling trend overall. In September, CPI and core CPI were lower than expected, and PCE and core PCE both increased by 2.8% year - on - year [26][28]. - **Employment**: In September, non - farm employment increased by 119,000. In November, ADP employment decreased by 32,000, but subsequent data such as challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims alleviated market concerns [32]. - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index first declined and then fluctuated at a low level. In the short term, it was driven by economic data and Fed policy expectations, and in the long term, it was affected by fiscal sustainability and global monetary policy differentiation. Overall, the long - term trend may be weak [37][38]. - **Tariff Policy**: Tariff policy changes in 2025 can be divided into four stages: full - scale tariff increases from January to March, the establishment of a "reciprocal tariff" system in April, negotiation and adjustment from May to October, and partial adjustments from November to December. The impact of tariffs on precious metal prices weakened in the second half of the year [39][44]. - **Fed Rate - Cut Expectations**: The Fed's rate - cut path in 2025 can be divided into three stages: waiting and seeing in the first half of the year, policy turning in the third quarter due to employment data, and rate cuts and internal differences becoming public at the end of the year. The rate - cut path in 2026 is uncertain [45][48]. - **Geopolitics**: In 2025, the change in the global geopolitical pattern increased market uncertainty, driving up the demand for precious metals as a safe - haven. Geopolitics will remain a core variable in the precious metal market in 2026 [51][52]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Gold**: In 2025, the global gold supply increased steadily, while the demand side showed significant structural differentiation. Investment demand, including ETFs and central bank purchases, was strong, while high prices suppressed traditional gold jewelry consumption [53][54]. - **Silver**: The silver market in 2025 continued to face a supply - demand imbalance. Supply was rigid due to factors such as mine strikes and limited recycling growth, while demand was driven by both industry (especially photovoltaics) and investment. The World Silver Association estimated a supply gap of 117 million ounces for the whole year [56][57]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the weakening US economy and changing trading logic supported precious metal prices, with silver outperforming gold. - In 2026, the long - term logic for gold and silver remains unchanged. The Fed's rate - cut cycle and the weakening US dollar will support precious metal prices. Silver is expected to continue to rise with high volatility and outperform gold due to its supply - demand situation and multiple attributes [1][65].

Group 1 - Silver prices have exceeded $6, with a fixed price above $64 per ounce during the midday market clearing auction [1] - Gold prices increased by $100 from last Friday's benchmark, reaching around $4343 per ounce, before retreating to $4300 per ounce [1] - Platinum prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and sector dynamics, with ongoing geopolitical events contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2 - The U.S. trade deficit fell to its lowest level in five years in September, largely due to a surge in gold bar exports, particularly to Switzerland [2] - Trump's statement that "gold will not be subject to tariffs" has provided strong support for gold bar exports [2] - The Federal Reserve has reappointed all 11 current regional presidents for a five-year term, which is typically done in years ending in 1 or 6 [2][3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices may face downward pressure, with a potential target of $4170-$4180 if prices fall below $4250 [4] - Silver prices are under significant pressure, with a critical level at $61.00; a drop below this could lead to further declines towards $58.60-$58.80 [4] - Platinum is expected to show mixed short-term performance, with key support at 450 CNY per gram and resistance at 490 CNY per gram [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with a general expectation of a 25 basis point cut, but significant internal divisions exist among the voting members [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Half of the 12 voting members are inclined to maintain the current rates, and if more than three dissenting votes occur, it will mark the first such instance since 2019 [1] - Jerome Powell faces the challenge of balancing dovish statements to soothe the market while controlling inflation amid political pressure from the White House [1] Group 2: Asset Performance - Gold is hovering around the $4200 mark, supported by central bank purchases exceeding 1000 tons annually, with potential to break resistance levels and aim for historical highs [1] - Silver has surged to a historical peak of $61, driven by a spike in photovoltaic demand creating a supply-demand gap, leading to a continued rebound [1] - Hong Kong stocks are experiencing weakness, but there is potential for recovery based on the resilience of the mainland economy and a low price-to-earnings ratio of 7.75, awaiting signals of liquidity easing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report by Heraeus Precious Metals predicts a downward trend in the prices of gold, silver, and platinum group metals in the first half of 2026, following previous price increases that pushed gold and silver to high levels and platinum group metals to record highs [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Gold and silver prices are expected to face downward pressure due to a potential loss of momentum after recent price increases [1] - Platinum group metals may experience significant downward pressure due to weak industrial demand, despite a currently tight market [1] Group 2: Market Influences - The precious metals market may be affected by slowing economic growth, geopolitical uncertainties, and ongoing transformations in the automotive industry, leading to increased price volatility in the first half of 2026 [1] - Strong central bank demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions are expected to provide solid support for gold prices [1] Group 3: Specific Metal Insights - Silver prices are anticipated to be more volatile due to industrial headwinds [1] - The palladium market is expected to continue facing oversupply as the market share of pure electric vehicles increases [1] - China remains a key factor in global demand trends, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" promoting green hydrogen and fuel cell technology, which may benefit the demand for ruthenium and iridium in the long term [1]