国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：原料端扰动，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：小幅震荡 | 10 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：过剩格局未改 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：交投清淡，横盘整理 | 13 | | 钯：持续震荡 | 13 | | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：情绪利好推升盘面，关注节前资金行为 | 17 | | 工业硅：盘面波幅减少 | 19 | | 多晶硅：部分仓单注销，关注情绪影响 | 19 | | 铁矿石：区间震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：事件扰动，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 28 ...

Macro Insights - The CPI year-on-year growth rate has significantly decreased due to seasonal factors and the drop in fresh vegetable prices, but the upward trend remains intact. The transmission of raw material price increases to downstream durable consumer goods continues, and the central government's policy on pig production capacity may accelerate the reduction of pig production, leading to a moderate improvement in pork prices in the second half of the year [1] - The PPI month-on-month growth rate has accelerated, with price increases spreading further, influenced by external factors and domestic policies aimed at reducing competition. It is expected that the PPI year-on-year growth may turn positive in the second quarter [1] Industry Research - In the steel and aluminum sector, the potential for increased dividend payouts is supported by three factors: the inclusion of market capitalization management in assessments, high dividend yield as a core strategy for insurance capital allocation, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries. Companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are likely to have strong dividend potential. Key recommendations include Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Jiuli Special Materials, with a suggestion to pay attention to China Aluminum [3] Company Research - Jiantao Laminated Board (1888.HK) is a leading global manufacturer of copper-clad laminates with a vertically integrated supply chain. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to be HKD 2.17 billion, HKD 3.95 billion, and HKD 4.84 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 64%, 82%, and 22% respectively. The company excels in cost control and supply chain stability, enhancing profit elasticity during rising copper price cycles, and its deep upstream material layout and AI electronic fabric are expected to open new growth avenues. The company is considered to have a certain level of scarcity and valuation upside, thus receiving a "buy" rating [4]

Core Insights - As of February 11, the latest financing balance in the market is 26,278.24 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 159.17 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Three industries saw an increase in financing balance, with the non-ferrous metals industry leading with an increase of 3.44 million yuan [1] - A total of 28 industries experienced a decrease in financing balance, with the electronics, electric power equipment, and communication sectors showing the largest declines of 25.01 billion yuan, 23.67 billion yuan, and 12.84 billion yuan respectively [1][2] Industry Summary - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Latest financing balance is 1,475.99 billion yuan, with an increase of 3.44 million yuan and a growth rate of 0.23% [1] - **Social Services**: Latest financing balance is 133.33 billion yuan, with an increase of 966.57 million yuan and a growth rate of 0.73% [1] - **Construction Materials**: Latest financing balance is 139.24 billion yuan, with an increase of 527.69 million yuan and a growth rate of 0.38% [1] - **Real Estate**: Latest financing balance is 348.59 billion yuan, with a decrease of 9.26 billion yuan and a decline rate of 2.59% [1] - **Petroleum and Petrochemicals**: Latest financing balance is 223.72 billion yuan, with a decrease of 3.35 billion yuan and a decline rate of 1.48% [1] - **Light Industry Manufacturing**: Latest financing balance is 143.61 billion yuan, with a decrease of 1.78 billion yuan and a decline rate of 1.22% [1] - **Electronics**: Latest financing balance is 3,892.79 billion yuan, with a decrease of 25.01 billion yuan and a decline rate of 0.64% [2] - **Electric Power Equipment**: Latest financing balance is 2,313.03 billion yuan, with a decrease of 23.67 billion yuan and a decline rate of 1.01% [2]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The A-share margin balance decreased to 26,444.35 billion yuan on February 11, reflecting a reduction of 160.40 billion yuan from the previous trading day, which accounts for 2.54% of the A-share circulating market value [1] Group 1: Margin Trading Data - The margin trading volume on February 11 was 1,806.36 billion yuan, down by 120.21 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.02% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2: Industry Financing Net Inflows - Among the 31 primary industries, three sectors experienced net financing inflows, with the non-ferrous metals industry leading at a net inflow of 344 million yuan [2] - Other industries with notable net financing inflows included social services and construction materials [2] Group 3: Individual Stock Financing Net Inflows - A total of 15 stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Northern Rare Earth leading at 844.01 million yuan [3] - Other stocks with significant net inflows included Tianfu Communication, Wangsu Science and Technology, Dongshan Precision, and People's Daily, among others [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The securities market has shown significant structural trends since the beginning of the year, with increasing attention on the economic and industrial development outlook for 2026 and investment opportunities [1][7]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic policy is expected to remain proactive, with growth-stabilizing policies likely to continue, and monetary policy is expected to maintain a steady and loose stance [1][7]. - Despite frequent market concerns regarding the macroeconomic fundamentals, there is a belief in the need for confidence and determination to adapt to potential changes and actively seek allocation opportunities across various industries [1][7]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The company continues to favor growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals and medical devices, defense and military industry, and humanoid robots, while also looking at cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals, steel, and securities for potential returns driven by macroeconomic fluctuations [1][7]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company increased its overall equity position based on a high position from the third quarter, maintaining holdings in sectors like robotics, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and finance, while also adding to other cyclical industries [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The active trading of the Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) indicates a strong market interest, with significant inflows and a notable increase in the underlying index [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of February 11, 2026, the Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF (159157) had a turnover rate of 15.83% and a trading volume of 270 million yuan, reflecting active market participation [1]. - The ETF experienced a net subscription of 166 million shares throughout the day, contributing to a total net inflow of 779 million yuan over the past four days [2]. - The latest scale of the Tianhong Nonferrous Metals ETF reached 1.873 billion yuan, with a total of 1.881 billion shares, both marking all-time highs since its inception [2]. Group 2: Index and Sector Performance - The underlying index, the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059), rose by 2.63%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Tungsten High-tech (up 10.00%), Xiamen Tungsten Industry (up 7.54%), and Jinchuan Group (up 7.08%) [1]. - In January, the prices in the nonferrous metals sector saw significant month-on-month increases, with the mining and smelting sectors strengthening concurrently [2]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that international nonferrous metal prices drove domestic mining and smelting prices up by 5.7% and 5.2%, respectively, with specific increases in silver smelting (up 38.2%), copper smelting (up 8.4%), gold smelting (up 4.8%), and aluminum smelting (up 2.3%) [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Citic Securities noted recent volatility in gold prices, attributing it to market concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and changes in the situation in Iran, suggesting that uncertainty in these areas may continue to affect market stability [3]. - The outlook for 2026 remains optimistic for both precious and nonferrous metal prices, despite short-term fluctuations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical sector shows strong performance, with significant gains in metals, chemicals, and oil and gas sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the long-term fundamentals of the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The mining ETF (561330) increased by 2.93%, while the gold stock ETF (517400) rose by 2.62%, and the chemical ETF (516220) gained 2.20% [2] - The coal sector is also performing well, with news that the Trump administration plans to direct the Pentagon to purchase coal, potentially revitalizing the coal industry [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Concerns about cryptocurrencies impacting liquidity in the cyclical sector have been alleviated, as precious metals like silver remain stable, suggesting limited risk of a secondary shock to the non-ferrous sector [1] - Long-term support for the non-ferrous sector is expected from factors such as resource nationalism and supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the only coal ETF (515220) due to short-term catalysts and long-term valuation support from a weakening dollar credit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "Three-Year Action Plan for Supporting the Transformation and Upgrading of Advanced Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai (2026-2028)" aims to accelerate the establishment of a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, promoting green and digital transformation across enterprises of all sizes [1][2]. Group 1: Action Plan Overview - The action plan includes four major actions and 17 measures to enhance the development of advanced manufacturing in Shanghai [1]. - By 2028, Shanghai aims to add 100 manufacturing enterprises with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan and increase the number of industrial enterprises above designated size by 500 [1]. Group 2: Development Paths - The plan outlines three development paths: - For traditional advantageous industries, it emphasizes "optimization and enhancement" [1]. - For leading industries, it promotes "strategic guidance" [1]. - For key and emerging industries, it focuses on "expansion and development" [1]. Group 3: Innovation and Support Measures - The action plan supports enterprises in high-level R&D and high-value product transformation, addressing industry pain points and overcoming key core technologies [2]. - Financial support includes one-time subsidies for R&D investments, with amounts varying based on the level of investment [2]. Group 4: Financial Incentives - Companies investing in technology transformation projects can receive interest subsidies on loans or equipment financing leases, with a maximum subsidy of 20 million yuan [3]. - Additional rewards are available for energy-saving upgrades and for companies recognized as national green factories [3].

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4% and down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, down from 1.2% previously, while the month-on-month growth was 0.3%[1] - The PPI year-on-year change was -1.4%, better than the expected -1.5% and improved from -1.9% in the previous month[1] Structural Changes in Price Index - The new weight distribution for the CPI shows a shift towards services, with food and beverage (29.5%), housing (22.1%), and transportation and communication (14.3%) being the largest categories[2] - The weight of pork in the food category was increased from 1.4% to 1.9%, enhancing its contribution to CPI[2] - The average impact of the base period switch on CPI and PPI year-on-year was only 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively, ensuring continuity in price statistics[2] Seasonal and Structural Influences - January's CPI month-on-month performance was weaker than seasonal trends, recording only 0.2% due to the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival[3] - Food prices were a significant drag on the index, with fresh vegetable prices dropping 4.8% month-on-month, while pork prices rose 1.2%[4] - Core CPI showed strength, driven by rising gold prices and the effects of "anti-involution" and "national subsidy" policies, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[4] PPI Recovery and Market Signals - The PPI month-on-month growth accelerated to 0.4%, up from 0.1-0.2% in the previous quarter, indicating a structural recovery in industrial prices[6] - The broadening of price increases across 30 major industries, with 13 showing month-on-month increases, suggests improving profitability expectations in the manufacturing sector[8] - The report anticipates a potential rise in CPI to around 1.0% in February due to the Spring Festival purchasing effect, while PPI is expected to remain around -1.4% year-on-year[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [6]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 5.42% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index, ranking 28th among 31 first-level industries [12]. - Precious metals, energy metals, minor metals, industrial metals, and new metal materials all experienced varying degrees of decline during this period [12]. - The report highlights significant price movements, with tungsten prices rising sharply by 25.09% over the past two weeks, while other metals like silver and tin saw substantial declines [19][38]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index fell by 5.42% from January 26 to February 6, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 index [12]. - Precious metals decreased by 2.49%, energy metals by 11.47%, minor metals by 4.25%, industrial metals by 4.29%, and new metal materials by 9.25% [12]. Precious Metals - As of February 6, COMEX gold closed at $4,988.60 per ounce, up 0.11% over the past two weeks, and up 14.89% year-to-date [20]. - COMEX silver closed at $77.53 per ounce, down 24.92% over the past two weeks, but up 7.28% year-to-date [20]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $12,840.00 per ton, down 0.62% over the past two weeks, but up 2.14% year-to-date [29]. - Domestic copper averaged ¥99,560 per ton, down 1.68% over the past two weeks [29]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price reached ¥673,000 per ton, up 25.09% over the past two weeks [38]. - LME tin price was $47,155 per ton, down 16.69% over the past two weeks [38]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index was reported at 265.43, up 11.37% over the past two weeks [52]. - Neodymium oxide closed at ¥757,500 per ton, up 12.64% over the past two weeks [52]. Energy Metals - Electrolytic cobalt averaged ¥420,000 per ton, down 3.89% over the past two weeks [61]. - Lithium carbonate (99.5% battery grade) averaged ¥134,500 per ton, down 21.35% over the past two weeks [64]. Major Events - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public opinion on revising lead futures contract rules, which will include recycled lead ingots as alternative delivery items [3]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced the suspension of over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects to control capacity growth [70].