Group 1: Report Summary Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating was provided in the content [1][21][35] Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides trading strategies based on market data, industry news, and logical analysis [4][23][37] Section Summaries Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2506 contract closed at 78,100 yuan with a 0.31% increase, and the Shanghai Copper index increased its position by 3,097 lots to 531,000 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [2] - **Important Information**: Ivanhoe Mining suspended the operation of its Kakula underground mine due to earthquake activity [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The mid - year negotiation between Antofagasta and smelters is approaching, and the copper concentrate processing fee is under pressure. The import of recycled copper may increase, but the long - term supply is still tight. The market may show a back structure in the medium term [4] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to temporarily observe for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options [5][7] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract rose by 98 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.11%. Spot prices in various regions also increased [9] - **Related Information**: Guinea's Axis mining area had its mining license revoked, and the transition authorities designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas [10][11] - **Logic Analysis**: The Guinea event may reduce the annual surplus of bauxite supply and support the bauxite price. Short - term attention should be paid to the resumption of alumina production capacity [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the alumina price will be strongly volatile in the short term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [15][16] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 20,125 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions also changed [18] - **Related Information**: There were news about Sino - US trade, real - estate data, bank interest rates, and Fed officials' statements. Aluminum inventory decreased [19][20] - **Trading Logic**: Fed officials hinted at no interest rate cut before September, and domestic banks lowered deposit rates. Aluminum consumption maintained an upward trend, and low inventory supported the price difference [23] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the aluminum price will fluctuate. Consider the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 06 - 09 contract and temporarily observe for options [24] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 rose by 0.83% to 22,410 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders, and the spot premium declined slightly [26] - **Related Information**: The Hong Kong Exchange plans to add three storage facilities in Hong Kong, and the zinc ore tender price in North China increased [27] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters resumed production, downstream orders did not improve, and short - term zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [28] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - sided trading, short positions can be lightly tested at high prices. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2506 rose by 0.45% to 16,900 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand, and regional trading was acceptable [30] - **Related Information**: Some recycled lead smelters reduced the purchase price of waste batteries and planned to stop production [31] - **Logic Analysis**: Recycled lead smelters are in a loss state, and the short - term resumption of production willingness is not strong. The demand off - season restricts the upward space of lead prices [32] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily observe for arbitrage and options [33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2506 decreased by 60 to 123,280 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [34] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, nickel ore imports increased seasonally, and the export of ternary precursors decreased [36] - **Logic Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, nickel ore prices supported the nickel price, but the supply surplus is expected to expand after May [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to weaken. Consider the double - selling strategy for options and temporarily observe for arbitrage [38] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2507 rose by 30 to 12,870 yuan/ton. Spot prices were given [39] - **Important Information**: The European stainless steel market is facing challenges, and prices are falling [40] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, steel mills' production decreased, demand was mainly for rigid demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [41] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. Temporarily observe for arbitrage [43][44] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Tin closed at 267,730 yuan/ton, with a 1.11% increase. Spot trading was limited [46] - **Related Information**: There was news about the US missile defense system, but it had little impact on the tin market [47] - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices are in a high - level shock. African tin mines are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand situation is expected to ease [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to adjust in the short term. Temporarily observe for options [49][50] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of industrial silicon futures weakened, and spot prices were generally lowered [52] - **Related Information**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported industrial silicon from multiple countries [53] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weak, supply will increase, and high inventory suppresses prices [54] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions, sell out - of - the - money call options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [54] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main contract of polysilicon futures strengthened, and spot prices were given [55] - **Related Information**: The US electricity consumption is expected to reach a record high, and solar power installation capacity is expected to remain stable [56] - **Logic Analysis**: In May, production decreased, inventory decreased, and the 07 contract is facing a game between fundamentals and delivery contradictions [57][58] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the PS2507 contract, sell PS2507 - C - 40000, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [59] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and spot prices decreased [60] - **Related Information**: In April 2025, lithium carbonate imports increased significantly [61] - **Logic Analysis**: Some smelters and mines are reducing production, but demand is not optimistic, and inventory is high [62] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds, hold put ratio options, and temporarily observe for arbitrage [63][65][66] Second Part: Non - ferrous Industry Price and Related Data - The report provides daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals, including price, spread, inventory, and profit data, as well as multiple charts showing the historical trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [68][79][184]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On May 20, polysilicon showed a weak oscillating trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 35,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.99%, and an increase in positions by 7,474 lots to 70,536 lots. The price of SMM N-type polysilicon material dropped to 37,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 975 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon fell below the 8,000-yuan mark, with the main contract 2506 closing at 7,910 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.53%, and a decrease in positions by 10,324 lots to 64,706 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 73 yuan/ton to 9,412 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,100 yuan/ton, with the spot premium widening to 95 yuan/ton. Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, due to the lack of a reversal driver in demand and the suppression of warehouse receipt pressure, a defensive short strategy is recommended. Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research View - On May 20, polysilicon and industrial silicon prices both declined. The main polysilicon contract 2506 closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 0.99% for the day, while the main industrial silicon contract 2506 closed at 7,910 yuan/ton, down 2.53% for the day [2]. - Leading silicon factories in Xinjiang have actively cut production, and the industry is calling for joint production cuts, which will temporarily relieve the supply pressure. However, demand lacks a reversal driver, and warehouse receipt pressure is suppressing prices. A defensive short strategy is recommended [2]. - Polysilicon is facing a structural contradiction between a shortage in near-term delivery and a rapid loss of demand. After the squeezing pressure on the main contract ends, it is inevitable for the price to weaken, and the rebound height will be lower than before [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 140 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also declined, with the largest decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 1,525 yuan/ton and 625 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of N-type polysilicon material and dense material/single crystal use decreased by 500 yuan/ton and 1,000 yuan/ton respectively. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan/ton [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,097 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 4,770 tons to 331,920 tons. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 90 lots, while the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 210,000 tons to 270,000 tons [4]. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, price differentials between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and silicon coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The report includes charts showing the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - **Inventory**: The report includes charts showing the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, and the weekly industry inventory, as well as the inventory of DMC and polysilicon [22][23][26]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report includes charts showing the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [29][31][37]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have extensive experience in commodity research and provide services to many leading spot enterprises [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For industrial silicon: Unilateral - Sell on rallies; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Options - None [3][4] - For polysilicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Futures - spot - None; Options - None [8] 2. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, with potential supply increases from the resumption of production in the northwest and southwest, lackluster consumption, and declining exports [3] - The fundamentals of polysilicon are also weak. With the increase in the number of warehouse receipts, the delivery game is weakening, and the market is expected to run weakly [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract 2505 opened at 8080 yuan/ton and closed at 7910 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton (-2.53%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 64706 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66249 lots, an increase of 152 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8700 - 8900 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9400 - 10000 (-150) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest continued to decline [1] - In April 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,500 tons, a 2% increase month - on - month and a 9% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 216,700 tons, a 7% decrease year - on - year. In April 2025, the import volume of metallic silicon in China was 500 tons, a 70% decrease month - on - month and an 83% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5200 tons, a 43% decrease year - on - year [1] Consumption End - The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. In the organic silicon market, the prices of raw rubber and D4 showed different trends. The demand for raw rubber downstream increased rapidly, and the transaction was good, while the overall transaction of D4 was average due to weak demand for room - temperature rubber, and the high - end price declined slightly [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fell, opening at 36020 yuan/ton and closing at 35625 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 70536 (63062 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 165519 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, and N - type silicon was 36.00 - 39.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [5] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25000 tons, a 2.27% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a 7.22% increase month - on - month. The weekly output of polysilicon was 21400 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 12.42GW, a 0.50% increase month - on - month [6] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply and demand situation is complex. On the supply side, all polysilicon manufacturers are operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash - cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. On the demand side, the downstream photovoltaic module production schedule is synchronously reduced to 50 - 55GW, and the demand side shows an obvious marginal weakening trend. The inventory of the polysilicon industry remains high, and it is difficult to reduce inventory, putting serious pressure on the spot price. The macro - economic environment and international trade frictions also suppress overseas demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 35,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The main contract position is 70,536 lots, an increase of 41,848 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of polysilicon is 1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,305 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 38,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of polysilicon is 850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan/ton. The average price of polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.3 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg. The average price of polysilicon (re - feeding material) is 34.5 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton. The export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The spot price of industrial silicon is 8,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, an increase of 46,400 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons. The monthly import volume of polysilicon is 2,906 tons, a decrease of 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars/kg. The monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78,444,000 kilowatts, an increase of 11,443,000 kilowatts. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.91, a decrease of 0.62. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 pieces, an increase of 24,038,530 pieces. The monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 9,846,120 pieces, a decrease of 2,122,260 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/piece [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of May 19, the mainstream market prices of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type granular silicon are stable at 32 yuan/kg, 35.5 yuan/kg, 39 yuan/kg, and 37 yuan/kg respectively. From January to April, the social financing increment was 163.4 billion yuan, and the new loans were 100.6 billion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The cost support has weakened due to the decline in raw materials and electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest region. There are no bright spots on the consumer side, and high industry inventories are suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the southwest and the impact of macro - sentiment [2]. - In the short term, actual spot transactions are extremely rare. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory. Near - month contracts are still trading based on delivery games, while far - month contracts are trading on weak reality and weak expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to bottom out. The main contract 2507 opened at 8150 yuan/ton and closed at 8130 yuan/ton, a change of (-155) yuan/ton or (-1.87)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2507 was 155,038 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,384 lots, a change of - 49 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 8800 - 9100 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 10100 (-150) yuan/ton. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region also continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. It is reported that the market trading volume is expected to recover faster in mid - to late May, and the low - level inventory reduction of monomer enterprises has been effective recently. Although the operation of monomer enterprises in North and Southwest China has recovered, those in the Northwest are still in the maintenance period [1]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 36,900 yuan/ton and closed at 37,150 yuan/ton, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 28,688 (32,702 the previous day) lots, and the trading volume was 72,986 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quotation of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type silicon was 37.00 - 39.00 (-0.75) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased month - on - month. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 25.00 tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.27%, the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a month - on - month change of 7.22%, the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW, a month - on - month change of 0.50% [4]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers** - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (-0.02) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 (-0.02) yuan/piece [6]. - **Battery Cells** - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - **Components** - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Factors to Watch - Resumption of production in the southwest and changes in the operation in the northwest [2][5]. - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [5]. - Policy disturbances [5]. - Macro and capital sentiment [2][5]. - Operation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. - Impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [7]. - Impact of futures listing on the spot market [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The contradiction in nickel ore provides a bottom - support, while the economics of conversion production may limit the upside valuation [2]. - Stainless steel: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial driving force for upward movement [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The ore price has dropped significantly again, and the weak operation may continue [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Upstream production is gradually resuming, leading to a supply - demand surplus [2][14]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weak, and there is a downward driving force in the market [2][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950, down 15 from T - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 123,850, down 210 from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and spreads also showed different changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products; Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US; new nickel - iron projects in Indonesia entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; the Philippines is discussing a nickel - ore export ban [5][6][8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,180, down 620 from T - 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 62,580, also down 620 from T - 1. Other data including trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products in the industrial chain all showed declines [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. A wildfire in Canada threatened the Tanco lithium mine [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2507 closing price was 8,130, down 190 from T. The PS2506 closing price was 37,150, down 1,300 from T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices of related products in the industrial chain showed various trends [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported metal silicon from several countries [15][17]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [10]. - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: - 1 [13]. - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 2; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The silicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the polysilicon price volatility will intensify [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Changes - On May 20, 2025, the average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) dropped 1.67% to 8,850 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) dropped 1.50% to 9,850 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price dropped 0.18% to 8,130 yuan/ton. N - type polysilicon material dropped 1.33% to 37 yuan/kg, while the futures main contract closing price rose 0.81% to 37,150 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - Imported sand high - price decreased to 110,000 yuan/ton, down 5,000 yuan/ton from last week's high, and is expected to decline further. On May 8, the 350 - ton high - dispersion ultra - fine silver powder production line of Dongfang Jingcai was put into operation, which will fill the gap in domestic high - end silver powder production [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Industrial Silicon - In April, due to production cuts in Xinjiang, industrial silicon production decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, production is expected to increase slightly due to the resumption of production in Southwest China and new capacity ramping up, but the increase will be limited. Demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and silicon - aluminum alloy industries is weak, and the overall demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline [1]. Investment Strategy for Industrial Silicon - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand with high inventory. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rebounds [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Polysilicon - Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, and the resumption may be postponed. The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers, silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. Investment Strategy for Polysilicon - Recently, the polysilicon price rebounded due to delivery factors and supply - side reform news, but then fell again. In the short - term, the weak fundamentals conflict with delivery factors, causing intensified price fluctuations. It is necessary to continue to monitor the evolution of "high positions and low warehouse receipts" [1].

多晶硅日报 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 05 月 20 日 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现：多晶硅 06 合约价格下跌动能有所衰减。PS2506 收盘价 37150 元/吨, 涨幅 0.51%，成交量 7.30 万手，持仓量 28688 手，净减 4041 手。 后市展望：终端抢装结束，政策真空期，现货价格弱势限制反弹空间。供应端，5 月第 3 周周度产量保持在 2.3 万吨，预期月度产量为 10 万吨左右，前期我们提到 供需平衡需要装置更大幅度减产，此外还需注意丰水季或有增产预期。弱现实主 要体现在下游光伏终端"抢装"逐渐进入尾声，需求环比降明显下降，此外多晶 硅（28 万吨）、硅片和电池片均连续 6 周累库。总体来看，交割逻辑驱动减弱， 弱现实限制反弹空间，集中减产等消息面较难提振远月预期，短线价格进入震荡 期，上方 3.8-4.0 仍然是多空关键的博弈区间。 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunch ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the supply side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the expectation of new capacity launch is increasing. Most enterprises are in the stage of losing cash - cost, and production enthusiasm is frustrated. If prices remain low, more enterprises may cut production; if market expectations improve, some enterprises may resume production. The demand side shows a significant marginal weakening trend, with downstream photovoltaic component production schedules being synchronously adjusted down. The terminal market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, and polysilicon inventory remains high, making it difficult to destock and putting severe pressure on spot prices. Overseas photovoltaic market demand also has uncertainties. The operation suggestion is to short - term layout long positions and go short on highs in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon is 37,150 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 300 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 28,688 lots, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 4,014 lots. The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts is 875 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 155 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 29,020 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 315 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 38,750 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1,750 yuan/ton. The average price of polysilicon (cauliflower material) is 30.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of polysilicon (compact material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of polysilicon (re - feeding material) is 34.5 yuan/kg, with no change. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.3 US dollars/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.04 US dollars/kg. The basis of polysilicon is 1,900 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 680 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon is 8,130 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 15 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,100 yuan/ton, with no change. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 335,750 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 46,400 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 599,000 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 97,000 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 7,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,906 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 222 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 5.13 US dollars/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.14 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,190 US dollars/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 140 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 78,444,000 kilowatts, with a ring - to - ring increase of 11,443,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 95,373,120 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 24,038,530 units; the monthly import volume is 9,846,120 units, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 2,122,260 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.27 US dollars/unit, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 22.91, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.62 [2] 3.6 Industry News - As of May 16th, the mainstream market price of P - type polysilicon cauliflower material is 32 yuan/kg, N - type compact material is 35.5 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material is 39 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon is 37 yuan/kg, all with stable market prices. From January to April, the social financing increment was 16.34 trillion yuan, and the new loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. In April, M2 increased by 8% year - on - year [2]