经历了2021至2023年的持续三年低迷行情后，2024年以来港股市场已迈入"业绩+估值"双击的行情。 年初受大模型推出及AI商业化落地催化，中国资产重估行情启动，港股市场领衔上行，虽然四季度以 来港股市场有望承压，但年初至今的累计涨幅仍然亮眼，在全球主流市场指数中名列前茅，成功逆袭！ 恒生指数涨29.6%，其中的港股通标的更是"青出于蓝胜于蓝"，恒生港股通指数涨幅高达34.6%！ 今日，跟踪恒生港股通指数的恒生港股通ETF（520820）重磅上市！恒生港股通ETF（520820）囊括港 股重点板块稀缺资产，轻松布局港股互联网、创新药、新消费等优质龙头！ 数据截至2025.12.14 那么历经两年的估值修复后，港股市场在2026年又将有何表现呢？"指数投资"趋势下，又有哪些新工具 值得关注呢？ 【春山可望？2026年港股研判："乘势而上、迈向新高度"】 中信证券从多个维度剖析了港股市场2026年的配置价值，其中指出： 估值维度，当前港股仍是全球主要市场中的估值洼地，而计算当前的恒生指数ERP仍高达到5.7%。业绩 来看，当前Bloomberg一致预期显示恒生指数的2026E净利润同比增长8.5%。随着港股基本 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the paradox of China's trade surplus, which reached a historic high of $1.08 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating a strong export performance but underlying issues in domestic consumption [1][5] - It emphasizes that a large trade surplus does not necessarily equate to a strong economy, as it may reflect an inability to consume domestically, leading to over-reliance on exports [1][5] Trade Surplus Analysis - China's trade surplus is calculated as the difference between exports and imports, with exports growing by approximately 5.9% in 2025 while imports remained stagnant or even declined in some months [1][5] - The significant surplus is attributed to low domestic consumption, as consumers are hesitant to spend on housing and vehicles, causing companies to focus on exporting excess production [1][5] Export Dynamics - The export of photovoltaic components has surged in quantity, but the total export value growth has not kept pace, with some months showing a decline in monetary value due to drastic price reductions [3][4] - Companies are resorting to "price for volume" strategies to maintain cash flow and market share, resulting in thin profit margins that hinder wage increases for workers [4] Domestic Consumption Challenges - The decline in the real estate sector has severely impacted consumer confidence and spending, as many individuals have their wealth tied up in property, leading to a defensive saving mentality [5] - Despite nominal growth in disposable income of about 5.3% in 2025, the faster growth in savings indicates a reluctance to spend, driven by fears of economic instability [5] Policy Recommendations - The article suggests several policy measures to stimulate domestic demand, including capacity reduction, urbanization initiatives, and targeted fiscal policies to alleviate the financial burden on citizens [5] - It advocates for a shift in investment focus from real estate to diversified asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of investing in cities with net population inflows [5] Future Economic Outlook - The article predicts a prolonged low-interest-rate environment globally, influenced by economic downturns and rising debt levels, which will create volatility in capital markets [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a diversified portfolio that includes high-dividend stocks and growth sectors, while also preparing for potential market uncertainties [5]

12月15日消息，三大指数集体低开，CPO板块跌幅居前。截至今日开盘，沪指报3865.40，跌0.62%；深成指报13150.43 点，跌0.81%；创指报3157.32点，跌1.16%。 消息面： 2、财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安12月12日主持召开党组会议，会议指出，明年要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支 出总量，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 10、近期，磷酸铁锂行业正掀起一波密集的提价浪潮。记者从多家产业链企业获悉，头部厂商已开始向客户发出明确的涨 价通知。 11、智通财经记者从多个渠道人士处获悉，茅台各省区经销商联谊会近日召开会议决定，年内计划外配额停发，明年非标 产品减量。 3、商务部办公厅、中国人民银行办公厅、金融监管总局办公厅发布《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振消费的通 知》。其中提到，鼓励有条件的地方运用数字人民币智能合约红包提升促消费政策实施质效。合理确定贷款发放比例、期限和 利率，加快推动个人消费贷款业务发展。 4、全国发展和改革工作会议12至13日在北京召开。会议强调，扎扎实实做好明年发展改革重点工作。要多措并举促进投 资止跌回稳，适当增加中央预算内投资 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the 2026 economic work is on "qualitative effective improvement" through optimizing fiscal expenditure and income structure, deepening industrial policy, and enhancing monetary policy coordination, laying the foundation for the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The capital market is expected to benefit from qualitative improvements, with profit growth driving market development, particularly in the midstream manufacturing sector [1][6] - Key sectors to watch include chemicals, new energy chains, real estate chains, and healthcare chains, as well as the potential for service consumption growth [1][6] Core Insights and Arguments - The economic policy for 2026 emphasizes a combination of cross-cycle and counter-cyclical measures, focusing on qualitative improvements rather than quantitative growth, differing significantly from the 2024 approach [2][3] - The real estate market is expected to stabilize through risk mitigation measures, encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing construction [4][14] - The automotive industry anticipates a flat or slightly positive growth in domestic insurance demand for 2026, supported by trade-in and scrappage policies [11][12] - The metal sector is projected to benefit from domestic demand-driven economic models, with a focus on aluminum, copper, and gold prices due to supportive macro policies [9][10] Additional Important Insights - The manufacturing sector is expected to see significant AI integration, enhancing production efficiency and driving industrial upgrades [17][18] - The semiconductor equipment, liquid cooling equipment, and power facility sectors are anticipated to enter a phase of order and revenue realization in 2026 [18] - The AI application landscape is set for substantial growth, particularly in robotics and smart hardware, with major companies planning product launches [19] - The real estate market's inventory is expected to decrease significantly, improving fundamentals and benefiting companies focused on improving housing supply [16] - The non-banking financial sector is encouraged to enhance capital market reforms, with a focus on improving the quality of small financial institutions [27][28] Recommendations for Investment - In the automotive sector, companies with high overseas exposure and strong positions in AI and robotics, such as Geely, Xpeng, and BYD, are recommended [13] - For the metal sector, companies like China Aluminum, China Nonferrous Mining, and Wugang Resources are highlighted due to their potential in aluminum and copper markets [9][10] - In the real estate sector, firms focusing on improving housing supply in core cities are expected to benefit from supportive policies [14][16] - In the semiconductor and equipment sectors, companies involved in AI infrastructure and related technologies are recommended for investment [17][18]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the financial data and economic conditions in China, particularly focusing on the banking sector and macroeconomic indicators [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Loan Growth and Economic Trends** - In January, new loans amounted to 5.1 trillion yuan, indicating a typical credit peak season, but a slight decrease in loan growth is expected in the coming months, aligning with nominal economic growth trends [1][9]. - The demand for household credit remains weak due to multiple factors including a sluggish real estate market, stock market volatility, and declining consumer data [1][10]. 2. **Monetary Supply and Policy Environment** - M1 money supply growth has decreased to 4.9% year-on-year, while M2 growth remains stable at 8%, reflecting a relatively stable policy environment with no urgent need for adjustments [1][4]. - The central bank's financial data shows a year-on-year growth in social financing scale of 8.5%, with loan growth at 6.3%, indicating a stable overall performance but with some discrepancies from market expectations [2]. 3. **ETF Fund Flows and Market Sentiment** - Dividend ETFs continue to attract funds for low-positioning, while the technology sector shows weak liquidity. The CSI 500 ETF saw a net inflow close to 10 billion yuan, while tech-themed ETFs like AI, military, and semiconductors experienced significant net outflows [1][5][6]. - The banking sector is experiencing a daily net outflow of about 500 million yuan, but its fundamental improvement is considered highly certain, suggesting potential investment value [6]. 4. **Future Market Expectations** - An interest rate hike is anticipated around mid-2026 to address potential economic downturn risks. The banking sector's fundamentals are improving, but the overall upward potential is limited to about one or two percentage points [7][8]. - The consumer sector remains a market highlight, and the performance of innovative pharmaceutical stocks in Hong Kong is also noted [8]. 5. **Investment Policy and Economic Recovery** - Attention is required on the implementation of policies from the Central Economic Work Conference, particularly regarding "investment stabilization." Current market reactions are relatively muted, and there is a lack of new directions to boost investment growth [11]. - The potential for large-scale infrastructure projects or new monetary tools to support the economy is acknowledged, but the effectiveness may not match past initiatives like the 4 trillion yuan stimulus plan [11]. 6. **Market Dynamics and Risks** - The overall economic activity is showing signs of weakening, which is viewed as a healthy adjustment. The stock market requires strong policy signals to break out of its current stagnation [12]. - The impact of US-China competition is discussed, indicating that China is not at a disadvantage, which supports the RMB exchange rate and foreign capital allocation [13]. Additional Important Insights - The early loan disbursement by banks in October rather than December may influence corporate project growth [3]. - The current financial data suggests that without unexpected policy support, the stock market may struggle to maintain upward momentum [12]. - The debt market may see recovery opportunities following the Central Financial Conference, as high interest rates currently hinder fiscal debt issuance costs [12].

Group 1 - The "21 Vanke 02" bond experienced a decline of over 24%, leading to a temporary trading halt [1] - The "23 Vanke 01" bond fell by more than 5% [1] - The "22 Vanke 04" bond decreased by over 3% [1]

Market Overview - On December 15, A-shares opened lower across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62% at 3865.4 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.81% at 13150.43 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16% at 3157.32 points [1] - The CPO, energy metals, and lithium mining sectors saw significant declines, while the controllable nuclear fusion sector had several stocks open high, including Xue Ren Group and Hualing Cable, which hit the daily limit [1] - The liquor sector showed signs of recovery, with Huangtai Liquor up over 5% and Guizhou Moutai up over 1% [1] Company News - Vanke announced that three proposals for extending the maturity of its "22 Vanke MTN004" bond were not effectively passed, with one proposal receiving 83.40% approval for an extension with credit enhancement [2] - Shunhao Co. indicated that its "Tianshu Tiansuan" business may take five years to realize commercial value, facing challenges such as strong radiation and regulatory issues [2] - Renfu Pharmaceutical received a notice of administrative penalty from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for false financial disclosures, leading to a one-day suspension of its stock [2] - Yongding Co. reported that its subsidiary's revenue from superconducting materials is less than 1% of total revenue and will not significantly impact its performance [3] - Chip Origin Co. agreed to terminate a major asset restructuring transaction to protect shareholder interests [3] - Enjie Co. plans to acquire 100% of Qingdao Zhongke Hualian New Materials Co. through a share issuance and will resume trading on December 15 [3] - Kehua Data has partnered with domestic GPU chip manufacturers to support the development of a self-controlled computing power ecosystem [3] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to accelerate the development of satellite internet and 6G technology [6] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented on a recent agreement among several countries to strengthen the rare earth supply chain, urging adherence to market principles [7] - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a wave of price increases as major companies begin to adjust their product prices [7] - The commercial aerospace sector marked a significant milestone with the successful launch of a private space vehicle by Ziwei Technology [8] - The National Financial Supervision Administration called for support to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government financing risks [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced new regulations to optimize the import and export of lithium batteries [10] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the importance of transitioning to a dual carbon control strategy, promoting a comprehensive green transformation [11] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is drafting guidelines to standardize pricing behavior in the automotive industry [12]

Core Viewpoint - Hainan is accelerating the construction of a shared and prosperous free trade port, focusing on people-centered development to ensure that the benefits of economic growth reach the populace, thereby enhancing overall well-being [7]. Group A: Employment and Economic Stability - Hainan has established employment stations to assist job seekers, resulting in the creation of a labor team for agricultural work, which has alleviated immediate employment challenges for local businesses [8][9]. - The province has implemented various measures to stabilize employment, achieving a total of 684,400 new urban jobs during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an urban survey unemployment rate maintained below 5.5% [11]. - The "Hainan Good Employment" app has gained popularity, with 4.0059 million job postings and 294,500 registered job seekers, reflecting the province's commitment to providing accessible employment services [11]. Group B: Social Welfare and Education - Hainan is enhancing elderly care and children's education, with initiatives like regional elderly service centers and group-based schooling to ensure quality services for the elderly and children [12][13]. - The province has established 189 educational groups to improve resource distribution in education, allowing more children to access quality schooling close to home [13]. - Digital education resources have been expanded, with 3.5 million digital education resources and 6 million test questions available, promoting equitable education across the province [13]. Group C: Infrastructure and Living Conditions - Hainan is actively improving living conditions through the construction of affordable housing, with 117,000 affordable housing units planned and 2,187 old urban communities being renovated [16]. - The province has developed "pocket parks" to enhance urban green spaces, with 49 parks renovated this year, ensuring residents have access to green areas within walking distance [16]. - Infrastructure improvements include the construction of 2,815.79 kilometers of urban gas pipelines and a comprehensive underground utility corridor in Haikou, enhancing urban resilience [16]. Group D: Cultural and Recreational Development - Hainan is diversifying its cultural and recreational offerings, with events like the Hunan Satellite TV New Year's concert and government-issued consumer vouchers to stimulate local spending [18]. - The province is fostering a vibrant cultural scene, with activities such as marathons and other community events contributing to a lively atmosphere [18].

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlined the economic work for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development [1][3][5] Group 1: Economic Signals - The conference released three major positive signals: strong policy continuity with a focus on "more proactive fiscal policy + moderately loose monetary policy," emphasis on high-quality development, and targeted efforts in key areas such as domestic demand and risk prevention [3][4] - The focus on "domestic demand as the primary driver" highlights the commitment to building a robust domestic market, with specific measures to increase income for urban and rural residents [3][10] Group 2: Policy Framework - The macro policy framework for 2026 includes maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% and expanding special bond quotas to approximately 5 trillion yuan, alongside a "small step, slow run" approach to monetary policy [7][8] - The expectation for fiscal policy is to direct funds towards key areas such as technology innovation, green initiatives, and consumer sectors, while monetary policy aims to lower financing costs for the real economy [8][9] Group 3: Focus on Domestic Demand - "Expanding domestic demand" is positioned as the top priority for 2026, with a focus on consumption driven by income growth and improved public services [10][20] - The strategy emphasizes a collaborative effort across government, businesses, and individuals to stimulate consumption and create a strong domestic market [10][21] Group 4: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - The conference identified key areas for new growth drivers, including digital economy, artificial intelligence, advanced manufacturing, and renewable energy, with the capital market playing a crucial role in supporting these sectors [13][14] - Capital markets are expected to provide pricing, financing, and merger support to foster innovation and facilitate the transition to high-tech industries [13][14] Group 5: Risk Management and Competition - The need to address "involution" in competition and improve the quality of small financial institutions was highlighted, with a focus on creating a unified national market to enhance fair competition [15][16] - Strategies for risk management include targeted measures to address risks in real estate and local government debt, emphasizing a market-oriented approach combined with policy support [17][18] Group 6: International Cooperation and Investment Opportunities - The conference emphasized the importance of international cooperation in areas such as digital trade, green energy, and high-end manufacturing, which are expected to present significant investment opportunities [19][20] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors benefiting from service industry expansion, digital trade, and green transition, particularly for companies with competitive advantages in these areas [20][21]

3. 中信建投：跨年行情蓄势待发 A股上涨的底层逻辑并未改变，目前市场已经基本完成调整，跨年有望迎来新一波行情。中期行业配置 方面，重点关注具有一定景气催化的有色金属和AI算力板块;主题投资方面，商业航天为主线，可控核 聚变和人形机器人也可适当关注。此外，港股市场中的潜在热点主要集中在互联网巨头、创新药两大方 向。 上周A股市场风格分化，成长风格整体走强。主要指数中，沪指累跌0.34%，深证成指累涨0.84%，创业 板指累涨2.74%。通信、军工、电子、机械设备领涨;煤炭、石油石化、钢铁、房地产板块下跌。 后市市场将如何演绎?且看最新十大券商策略汇总。 1. 中信证券：内外兼顾，寻求交集 从中央经济工作会议内容来看，做大内循环仍是重心，定位和去年相似。但对于股票市场而言，内需品 种和外需品种的预期和定价与去年存在巨大差异：去年底投资者对外需普遍谨慎，对内需充满期待，但 最终外需的表现大超预期;今年是重仓布局外需敞口品种，预期相对充分，但对内需品种欠缺信心;实际 上，明年外需继续超预期的难度在加大，但内需可期待的因素在增多。从这些角度来看，海外敞口品种 业绩兑现力强，但估值继续提升难度大;内需敞口品种景气度一般 ...