1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to repeated geopolitical factors between the US and Iran and EU sanctions targeting third - country ports, which bring uncertainties to the supply side [1]. - Fuel oil prices are likely to oscillate. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore is under pressure in the short - term but may improve in March. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is strengthening. Both are affected by geopolitical situations and crude oil costs [3]. - Asphalt market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price follows the cost - side oil price but may be volatile after the US - Iran negotiation, so light positions are recommended before the Spring Festival [3]. - Polyester prices are expected to fluctuate. PX and PTA prices may follow the cost and weaken, while ethylene glycol prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [3][5]. - Rubber prices are predicted to maintain an oscillating trend due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals and a slight increase in port inventory [5]. - Methanol prices are likely to have a narrow - range fluctuation. The decrease in Iranian shipments in February will support the price, but the slow destocking speed at ports and the approaching Spring Festival will limit the price movement [6]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate narrowly. With the end of downstream enterprise restocking and the approaching Spring Festival, the market trading activity will decline [6]. - PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Although the supply is high and domestic demand is slowing, the export tax - refund policy before April 1 will provide short - term support [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI March contract closed at $64.36/barrel, up $0.81 or 1.27%; Brent April contract closed at $69.04/barrel, up $0.99 or 1.45%; SC2604 closed at 475.2 yuan/barrel, up 9.2 yuan or 1.97%. OPEC's January oil production decreased by 60,000 barrels per day to 28.34 million barrels per day, with Nigeria having the largest decline. The EU plans to expand sanctions on Russia to ports in Georgia and Indonesia. The short - term oil price will oscillate due to geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.5% at 2,794 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2604 closed down 1.22% at 3,248 yuan/ton. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the expected increase in arbitrage cargoes from the Western market in February will put pressure on the Singapore low - sulfur market. However, the inflow of arbitrage cargoes in March is expected to decrease. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is strengthening [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2603 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.98% at 3,334 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, and the port inventory of diluted asphalt has increased. The demand has basically ended before the Spring Festival. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price follows the cost - side oil price [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5,192 yuan/ton, up 0.5% on the previous day; EG2605 closed at 3,739 yuan/ton, down 0.11%. The PX futures main contract 605 closed at 7,290 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The polyester load is weakening, and the near - term performance is under pressure, while the far - month is expected to be strong [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 165 yuan/ton to 16,245 yuan/ton, and the NR main contract rose 100 yuan/ton to 13,150 yuan/ton. The cost - side raw material prices are supported by stocking, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weak with a slight increase in port inventory [5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the Taicang spot price was 2,205 yuan/ton. The domestic supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the Iranian supply is low. The load of the Ningbo Fude MTO device will gradually increase, and there is rigid demand support. The decrease in Iranian shipments in February will support the price, but the destocking speed at ports will be slow [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,530 - 6,750 yuan/ton. The upstream production is at a high level, and the downstream factories will gradually stop production. The downstream restocking is basically over, and the polyolefins will start to accumulate inventory, so there is pressure for the price to rise [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Monday, the price in the East China PVC market was stable, and the price in the South China market rose slightly. The domestic real - estate construction is slowing down before the Spring Festival, and the demand for pipes and profiles is decreasing. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the export policy will provide short - term support [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, price changes of spot and futures, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for multiple energy - chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. [8] 3.3 Market News - On February 9, the US issued a new guide for merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, advising US - flagged ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters and not to resist if boarded by the Iranian military [11]. - According to traders and shipping data, Russian oil tankers are increasingly listing Singapore as the official destination, but Singapore does not import Russian crude oil, and its offshore waters are often used for ship - to - ship transfers [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc., from 2022 to 2026 [13][15][17][19][21][24][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts for multiple products, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [31][36][37][38][40][41]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [43][45][48][51][53][55][57]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, BU/SC ratio, etc. [59][62][64]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts for LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash - flow chart for ethylene - based ethylene glycol [64][66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market, has won multiple awards and provides risk management and investment strategies for many enterprises [70]. - **Du Bingqin**: Energy and Chemical Research Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain, has won many awards and is often interviewed by the media [71]. - **Di Yilin**: Rubber and Polyester Analyst of Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the research of rubber and polyester - related futures varieties, has won several awards and published views in many media [72]. - **Peng Haibo**: Methanol, Propylene, Pure Benzene, Polyolefin, and PVC Analyst of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in the energy - chemical spot - futures trading and CFA Level 3 certification [73].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of AI technology in Yihua Group's operations enhances production safety and efficiency, particularly through the implementation of intelligent inspection systems and AR technology for comprehensive safety management [1][9]. Group 1: AI Implementation in Production - Yihua Group utilizes AI-driven intelligent inspection systems to monitor over 700 key points across seven core production segments, achieving an overall detection accuracy exceeding 90% [6]. - The AI systems are designed to identify safety hazards such as powder leakage, liquid spills, and smoke, thereby ensuring continuous production and safeguarding personnel and equipment [6][8]. - The deployment of AI technology has significantly reduced the need for manual inspections, allowing a single team to conduct centralized inspections, which enhances risk identification and response speed [8]. Group 2: Monitoring and Safety Management - Hikvision has installed intelligent monitoring systems on over 100 key points of belt conveyors in Yihua's phosphate chemical company, addressing issues like belt misalignment and blockages that can disrupt production [3][5]. - The AR-based management system at Xinyihua Chemical provides a unified visual interface that integrates environmental monitoring data and hazard information, improving safety management efficiency and response times [9]. - The shift from traditional manual inspections to AI-driven monitoring represents a significant advancement in operational efficiency, allowing for better resource allocation and risk management [11].

Group 1 - India has made significant progress in trade negotiations, reaching agreements with the EU and the US, marking a major shift in its foreign trade strategy [1] - The agreements involve substantial tariff reductions, with over 90% of bilateral tariffs being cut, and commitments in sectors like automotive and wine, alongside strategic cooperation in defense and technology [1] - India has pledged to procure $500 billion worth of US goods and cease oil purchases from Russia, shifting its imports to the US and Venezuela [1][2] Group 2 - India's commitment to stop purchasing Russian oil will significantly alter the global crude oil trade, as it was previously importing about 40% of its oil from Russia [2] - The shift in oil sourcing will impact India's domestic refining costs, as it transitions from cheaper Russian oil to potentially more expensive US oil or Venezuelan heavy crude [2] - The Indian chemical industry is expected to face cost pressures due to changes in feedstock sourcing, which may affect its competitiveness in export markets [2] Group 3 - The EU's stringent environmental and chemical management standards will likely influence India's industrial standards, necessitating compliance for Indian manufacturers to benefit from tariff reductions [3] - The trade agreements may drive India’s chemical industry towards higher value-added production and innovation, supported by investments from Europe in green energy and advanced materials [3] - The Indian chemical sector is at a critical transformation point, moving from scale-driven growth to value-led and innovation-driven models, influenced by sustainability and digitalization [3] Group 4 - The Indian chemical market is projected to grow from $220 billion in 2023 to between $400 billion and $450 billion by 2030, with potential to reach $850 billion to $1 trillion by 2040 [4] - The growth is driven by increasing per capita consumption of polymers, which is currently low at 15 kg, and geopolitical shifts that position India as a strategic alternative to China [4] - The demand for petrochemical products in India is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8% to 10%, outpacing GDP growth, fueled by urbanization and infrastructure development [4] Group 5 - S&P predicts that under the influence of the trade agreements, India's petrochemical demand will have a compound annual growth rate of 8% over the next decade, potentially surpassing the US to become the second-largest polyethylene market by 2034 [5]

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil has announced the early shutdown of its Fife Ethylene Plant in Mossmoran, Scotland, which was initially scheduled for permanent closure in the third quarter of 2026, indicating a shift in operational strategy in response to economic assessments and market pressures [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The Fife Ethylene Plant has an ethylene production capacity of approximately 830,000 tons per year, making it a significant chemical infrastructure in the UK [1] - The decision to close the plant ahead of schedule is part of ExxonMobil's global asset optimization strategy, focusing on core assets with competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The early closure is expected to affect the local ethylene supply landscape and may further influence the European ethylene market [1] - Analysts suggest that the decision is influenced by multiple factors, including economic evaluations of the facility, cost pressures in Europe, and broader strategic adjustments within the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shell's chemical business continues to incur losses, with a quarterly loss of $589 million in Q4 2025, marking six consecutive quarters of losses [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted annual loss for Shell's chemical business in 2025 reached $1.12 billion, with Q4 losses contributing significantly [1] - Over the past four years, the chemical segment has recorded annual losses, primarily due to narrowing profit margins [1] - The global chemical business margin in Q4 was $140 per ton, with an annual average of $148 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of $4 [1] Strategic Adjustments - Shell is considering shutting down production facilities on a case-by-case basis, with all adjustment options remaining on the table [1] - The CFO emphasized that restructuring and strategic repositioning of the chemical business will be a core focus for 2026 [1] - To improve cash flow, Shell has planned a cost-cutting initiative worth several hundred million dollars, aiming to bring the chemical business's free cash flow close to balance [1] Operational Metrics - The operating rate of the chemical business fell to 76% in Q4 2025, primarily due to an increase in both planned and unplanned maintenance shutdowns [1] - Shell has divested its loss-making refining and petrochemical assets in Singapore and will continue to adjust its chemical asset portfolio [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The US is planning to lower the so - called reciprocal tariffs on Bangladeshi goods and provide new exemptions for textiles, which will support Bangladesh's clothing industry [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading margin ratios and daily price limit ranges for newly listed contracts of multiple futures varieties [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit ranges and margin standards for lithium carbonate, platinum, and palladium futures contracts starting from February 12th [2] - The growth and moisture conditions of Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean crops have deteriorated significantly, with the proportion of normal - to - good rated crops and suitable - to - optimal moisture areas decreasing [3] - In February, the production of polysilicon decreased significantly month - on - month due to the shutdown of leading enterprises, and some other enterprises also reduced production. Polysilicon inventory increased slightly [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot News - The US will lower the overall reciprocal tariff on Bangladesh to 19% from 20% (last year it was lowered from 37% to 20%), and there is a mechanism for full tariff exemption for specific textiles [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit range of the gold 2605 contract to 17%, and the trading margin ratios for hedging and general positions to 18% and 19% respectively; for the silver 2702 contract, the daily price limit range is 20%, and the trading margin ratios for hedging and general positions are 21% and 22% respectively [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the daily price limit range of lithium carbonate futures contracts to 15% and the speculative trading margin standard to 17%, and the hedging trading margin standard to 16% from February 12th; for platinum and palladium futures contracts, the daily price limit range is adjusted to 24%, and the trading margin standards for both speculative and hedging are adjusted to 26% [2] - As of February 4th, Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean sowing is completed, but the growth and moisture conditions have worsened. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good (down 8.6% from a week ago), and 59% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions (down 5.6% from a week ago) [3] - In February, polysilicon production decreased significantly month - on - month due to leading enterprises' shutdowns, and some other enterprises also reduced production. Polysilicon inventory increased slightly as production was insufficient to cover short - term shipments [3] Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, lithium carbonate, platinum, crude oil, coking coal [4] - Night - session performance of sectors: non - metallic building materials rose 2.06%, precious metals rose 34.00%, oilseeds and fats rose 8.44%, soft commodities rose 2.59%, non - ferrous metals rose 25.41%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 10.39%, energy rose 2.69%, chemicals rose 10.71%, grains rose 1.00%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.71% [4] Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily % Change | Monthly % Change | Year - to - date % Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 1.41 | 0.12 | 3.89 | | | SSE 50 | 1.45 | 0.50 | 1.67 | | | CSI 300 | 1.63 | 0.27 | 1.92 | | | CSI 500 | 2.02 | - 0.71 | 11.33 | | | S&P 500 | 0.47 | 0.37 | 1.74 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.76 | - 1.31 | 5.45 | | | German DAX | 1.19 | 1.94 | 2.14 | | | Nikkei 225 | 3.89 | 5.70 | 11.97 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.16 | 1.59 | 4.58 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.58 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.25 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.03 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.51 | - 2.81 | 4.12 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.54 | - 1.72 | 12.23 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.85 | 3.66 | 17.15 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 0.08 | 4.51 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 6.26 | - 16.23 | 15.87 | | Other | US Dollar Index | - 0.78 | - 0.27 | - 1.44 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 1.83 | 18.80 | [6] Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The report presents various charts showing the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premiums of relevant stock indices [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the A-share market, with growth driven by technology and consumption sectors, suggesting a balanced investment strategy focusing on both growth and value opportunities [5][9][10] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,123.09, up by 1.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.17% to 14,208.44, indicating a general upward trend in the domestic market [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.71 and 51.84 respectively, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][10] International Market Performance - Major international indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down by 0.67% and the S&P 500 down by 0.45%, while the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.62% [4] Industry Analysis - The electric power and utilities sector is recommended for investment, with a "stronger than market" rating due to stable returns and growth potential, particularly in large hydroelectric and high-dividend coal enterprises [18] - The chemical industry is experiencing a price recovery, with a notable increase in the prices of key chemicals such as lithium hydroxide and butadiene, suggesting potential investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from rising raw material costs [19][21] Specific Sector Insights - The photovoltaic industry is projected to see significant growth, with over 300 GW of new installations expected in 2025, despite challenges from international demand and rising production costs [28][29] - The AI sector is rapidly evolving, with new models expected to outperform existing technologies, indicating a strong potential for investment in AI-related companies [22][24] Investment Recommendations - A balanced investment strategy is advised, focusing on technology sectors such as AI and high-end manufacturing, while also considering consumer sectors that may present future opportunities [5][9][10] - The report suggests monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes closely, as these factors will influence market dynamics and investment strategies [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, buying on dips for glass [1][6] - **Non - ferrous metals**: General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase hedging coverage for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expect lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][10] - **Energy and chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporary wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; expect polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1][20] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to move in a range [1][29] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short - term supply - demand game for hogs, with a strategy of selling on rallies for off - season contracts; sell on rallies for hedging post - festival contracts of eggs; short - term cautious about chasing high prices for corn, and grain holders can wait for rallies to sell for hedging; expect soybean meal to be mainly volatile in the short term, with the M2603 contract paying attention to the performance at the 3030 level; expect oils and fats to be volatile at high levels in the short term, and recommend buying on pullbacks [1][31] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, inventory, and policy to analyze the price trends of different commodities and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: Bullish in the medium - to - long - term, expected to be volatile and stronger. Overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may drive stock indices to move in this way. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - **Government bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Although institutions may have a demand to hold bonds during the holiday, the rebound of the TL2603 contract was blocked, and there are uncertainties after the holiday [6] Black building materials - **Double - coking coal**: Expected to move in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has short - term fluctuations, but the price increase is not sustainable due to weak demand and other factors [7][8] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is currently at a low static valuation, and the recent weakness is due to weakened cost support. It is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday [8] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range with a bullish bias. There are industry rumors, and although there is pressure above, the price is at a relatively low level again. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. The recent sharp decline is due to macro - level panic. Although there are uncertainties, it may stabilize in a range after risk release. Traders are advised to reduce positions, and hedgers to increase coverage [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. Supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range. Although there is positive news, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tight, and consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17] - **Silver and gold**: Expected to move in a range. Affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data, the medium - term price center is rising. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to relevant economic data [17][18] - **Lithium carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are both changing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [19] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to be volatile at a low level in a wide range. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [21] - **Caustic soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [22] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range. There is support for inventory reduction, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [23] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tightening, and demand is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading [23] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [24][25] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is high, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory [26][28] - **Soda ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is cost support. The price may have limited downward space [28] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term outlook is optimistic [29] - **Apples and jujubes**: Expected to move in a range. The market for apples in production areas is stable, and the price of jujubes is determined by quality [29][31] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short - term, there is a supply - demand game, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction [31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound from a low level. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the market will experience a grinding process in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider hedging on rallies [33] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices, and grain holders can sell on rallies for hedging. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [34][35] - **Soybean meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35] - **Oils and fats**: Expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. Different oils have different performance characteristics [36][41]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 板块逻辑： 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-10 全国动⼒煤普遍去库，化⼯延续震荡整 理 原油期货价格延续震荡整理态势，市场焦点依旧在于美伊和谈。彭博 报道，2月6日美伊双方在阿曼进行了初次谈判，美国总统表示会谈进行得 非常好，双方会谈将于本周继续进行。在地缘局势平息前，原油将延续震 荡整理。隆众数据显示，当前煤炭市场价格则受到低库存的支撑，周度看 全国各区域均环比去库，发运倒挂，煤炭价格春节前后维持坚挺的概率较 大。彭博报道，美国天然气期货周一延续跌势，天然气钻机数持续回升为 期价带来压力。 三大一次能源的震荡格局为化工带来一些支撑，化工产业链自身当前 矛盾并不很大。周一液体化工库存公布，隆众数据显示，2月9日当周苯乙 烯华东港口库存环比下滑11.18%，库存绝对值位于五年同期最低；纯苯港 口库存周度环比略增0.34%，纯苯当前依旧是五年同期最高的库存水平；C CF公布数据显示，乙二醇华东港口库存环比增加4.24%。乙二醇和纯苯的 累库属于季节性，苯乙烯的反季节性去库更凸显当前产业格局的健康，高 利润带来的远期开工的回升是隐忧。 原油：地缘溢价 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being bullish. The overall view is that the methanol futures will maintain a volatile and bullish pattern on Tuesday, February 10, 2026 [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Trend and View - **Short - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be volatile (within one week) [1]. - **Medium - term**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be volatile (from two weeks to one month) [1]. - **Intraday**: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be bullish, and the overall reference view is a bullish run [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - **Supply - side factor**: Overseas supply has a "hard contraction". Iran, the main source of imports, is in the stage of natural gas supply guarantee and production limitation in winter. Most methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, and the output is at a low level for the year. China's methanol imports may decline significantly in January and February, leading to tight external supply [5]. - **Geopolitical factor**: Due to the large differences between the US and Iran, the "pizza index" of the US Pentagon has risen again, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the domestic methanol futures showed a volatile and bearish trend on the night session of Monday, the downside space of the futures price is limited [5].