格隆汇8月19日｜据彭博，期权交易员越来越担心未来几周科技股会暴跌，并纷纷为此购买"保险"。自4 月初唐纳德·特朗普的全面关税引发崩盘以来，以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数上涨了近40%。此轮涨 势主要由大型科技公司推动，彭博七巨头指数从4月8日底部飙升了近50%；该指数的成份股包含英伟 达、Meta Platforms和微软。然而，市场担心涨势掩盖了一些薄弱环节。从几天后将要开始的美联储杰 克逊霍尔研讨会，到英伟达下周将发布的财报，都是潜在的股市下跌诱因。 ...

7月，美国经济仍呈现为"胀"大于"滞"，经济表现好于预期。1）通胀方面，随着关税税率的提升和传导，7月以来，线上零售价格持续上涨；2）增长方面， 7月美国失业率为4.2%、符合市场预期，且二季度GDP回升，经济总量上具有韧性，但结构上已现经济疲弱的态势。 同时，美股超预期的季报数据也"点燃"了市场情绪，再度吸引外资的回流，也支撑了美元的反弹。1）美股二季报出炉，标普500盈利、营收均超市场预期。 2）外资对美资产配置持续走高，其中对美股增持113.6亿美元。外资向美国"回流"等也支撑了美元上行。 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、赵宇、王茂宇（赵伟系申万宏源证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘要 7月，美国经济好于预期，叠加超预期的二季报，上半年全球资金"再平衡"趋势一度逆转，再度向美国回流。"再平衡"反转的持续性、后续国内外关注的焦 点？本文分析，供参考。 （一）7月海外市场主线？美股季报行情叠加经济韧性，海外"再平衡"再现波折 （二）7月国内市场的焦点？"反内卷"政策释放利好，上游价格明显回升 7月，"反内卷"政策利好不断，主线逻辑不断夯实。在前期政策的基础上，7月进一步落地多项"反内卷"举措，如《中华人 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Swatch's controversial advertisement featuring a model making a "slant-eyed" gesture, which is perceived as a symbol of racial discrimination against East Asians [2][5][6] - Following the backlash, Swatch quickly removed the image from its Chinese website but did not issue an immediate official statement [5][6] - The company's apology, issued the next day, acknowledged the issue but lacked specific details on how such content passed their review process and what measures would be taken to prevent future occurrences [6] Group 2 - The incident highlights a potential oversight in content review and a perceived disregard for the Chinese market by Swatch, which is crucial for its revenue [6] - In 2023, Swatch's sales in China grew by 10.9% to 2.63 billion Swiss francs, accounting for 33.3% of the group's total sales [6] - The company must demonstrate a deeper understanding of Chinese culture and consumer sentiments to regain trust, rather than relying solely on apologies and image removals [6] Group 3 - The second controversy involves YingShi Innovation's founder throwing cash at employees during a celebration, which sparked debate over whether this act was a form of humiliation or a genuine incentive [7][11] - The company issued a statement clarifying that the cash was from the founder's personal salary and emphasized the need to align employee behavior with public image standards [11][12] - This incident reflects a broader conflict between corporate incentive culture and public perception, indicating the importance of emotional resonance and value alignment in employee motivation strategies [12]

信用是市场经济的基础。对企业而言，良好的信用是一张重要名片。 这也带来思考，如何运用法治思维和法治方式，深入推进构建良好信用生态？ 两个事例，给人启示。 一个关乎精准惩戒。上海某汽车公司、某科技公司因合同纠纷被申请强制执行后，未按承诺及时履行。 企业是"恶意失信"还是"暂时失能"？上海长宁法院实地调查后认为，企业掌握关键核心技术，发展前景 可期，只是暂时遇到融资困难。法院以执行担保等对企业经营发展影响更小的措施，避免将其纳入失信 名单。今年3月底，企业获得融资后主动履行义务，困境迎刃而解。 一个关乎柔性修复。某塑料科技公司因技术升级导致资金链紧张未能偿还贷款，因违反财产报告令被纳 入失信名单。公司受信用惩戒影响无法再融资扩产，陷入"有订单无资金、有产能无信用"的困境。 怎么破局？江西法院查明，企业非恶意逃废债，仍有发展潜力。经债权人同意，法院出具信用修复证明 书，并暂停信用惩戒。半年内，企业偿还了债务，重焕生机。 打开信用修复之门，是激发市场活力的良方。实践表明，信用惩戒并非目的，通过精准施策，以约束促 诚信、以修复促发展才是更优解。当前，各地各部门积极探索，为"诚实而不幸"的经营主体"纾困"，执 法有力度又 ...

美联储紧急降息50基点引发全球市场剧震，A股在"利好兑现"与"衰退担忧"的拉锯中走出独立行情。 关键冲击波 多空博弈焦点 • 北向资金单日净流入破纪录 • 黄金股与科技股罕见齐涨 • 人民币汇率急升800点 外需复苏预期VS内需疲软现实 流动性宽松VS业绩下修风险 政策工具箱VS市场信心阈值 主力调仓动向 公募加仓消费电子 游资狙击可转债 险资坚守高股息 结语 这场突变既是压力测试，也是价值重估的契机。当A股与全球市场的联动逻辑改变，投资者需要新的认知框架。 ...

当前港股科技板块正处于一个预期重塑、价值重估的关键阶段。上半年的亮眼表现源于AI技术突破和 中国资产整体重估带来的估值修复。近两个月的震荡调整，主要反映了市场对短期盈利压力（如电商价 格战、新能源车价格战）、国内经济修复程度的担忧，以及海外流动性、中美关系、地缘政治的阶段性 扰动。 海外流动性边际改善：美联储9月降息概率较大，且11月和12月也不排除降息可能，海外流动性和风险 偏好的改善利好新兴市场权益资产，尤其是科技成长股。 港股市场作为全球金融中心地位提升，IPO融资全球第一，国际资金或将持续流入港股市场。 此外，对于部分投资者对科技叙事破灭的担忧，从今年Q2海外科技龙头的业绩表现来看，AI扩张的逻 辑依旧稳固，Token调用量、算力需求仍在快速增长，下游应用用户数也保持强劲增长。谷歌、微软、 Meta 25Q2均取得了超预期的业绩，其中AI和云业务增速尤其亮眼，并继续上调资本开支。整体来看AI 推理和应用需求快速增长趋势不减，企业前期投入的高额资本开支在逐步转化为收入和利润端的高增 速，扩张逻辑依旧稳固，不用对叙事破灭过于担忧。 综上，对下半年港股科技板块持比较乐观的态度。短期可能仍有波动，但基于估值、 ...

中国发展网讯山东省滨州市作为黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的重要节点城市，正全力推进五大千亿级产 业集群转型升级与新兴产业培育。然而，在产业迭代与企业成长过程中，企业融资难、融资贵问题如同 横亘在企业发展道路上的一道关卡，严重制约着企业的发展壮大与转型升级。滨州市发展改革委立足本 地产业特色，以"靶向治疗"思维重构融资服务体系，通过打通股权融资"主动脉"、畅通小微融资"毛细 血管"、搭建信用融资"智慧桥梁"，让金融资源精准流向实体经济最需要的地方，为产业高质量发展注 入强劲动力。 激活股权融资"引擎"，为产业升级注入资本动能 股权融资作为企业直接融资的重要方式，是推动产业转型升级的核心动力。滨州市发展改革委以政策为 引领、平台为纽带、龙头为支点，构建起多层次股权融资服务体系，让资本市场的"活水"精准滴灌实体 经济。 政策赋能，厚植创投沃土。出台《推动创业投资高质量发展三年行动方案》，将创业投资发展纳入县 (市、区)考核体系，通过任务分解、定期调度、督导通报，形成上下联动的工作格局。截至目前，累计 开展创投政策培训20余场，覆盖企业负责人、金融从业者超700人次，深入企业宣讲130余次，让政策红 利直达市场主体。6月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "US Regime Indicator" compiled by Bank of America has shown the largest jump in over a year, signaling a potential shift in the US business cycle from "downturn" to "recovery" [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "Not-so-Nifty 450" stocks, which exclude the top 50 stocks in the S&P 500, are expected to outperform the "Nifty 50" during the recovery phase, with historical data indicating that the former's P/E expansion is twice that of the latter [1][2][3]. - Historical data shows that during previous recovery periods, the "Nifty 50" underperformed the "Not-so-Nifty 450" by an average of 3.3 percentage points per year, with only 36% of recovery periods seeing the "Nifty 50" outperform [2][3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The "Magnificent Seven," comprising major tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, have significantly driven the S&P 500 index to new highs, but their high valuations are causing caution among investors [4][5][8]. - The disparity in performance between large-cap and small-cap tech stocks is at a historical high, with small-cap tech stocks lagging significantly behind their large-cap counterparts [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The improvement in the "US Regime Indicator" is broad-based, with six out of eight original inputs showing positive changes, including EPS revisions and GDP forecasts [6][8]. - Despite the positive signals, leading economic indicators and the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index have shown weakness, indicating potential volatility in the recovery [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There is a structural opportunity for small-cap stocks, particularly those with high-quality factors and low-risk profiles, as the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. - A list of stocks from the "Not-so-Nifty 450" with low forward P/E ratios and high beta values has been identified as potential recovery plays, including companies like United Airlines and Devon Energy [9].

Market Overview - On August 18, Hong Kong's three major indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.37% at 25,176.85 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.65% at 5,579.18 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.06% at 9,033.68 points [1] - The pharmaceutical sector remained strong, while cyclical stocks were generally weak. Notable stock movements included BYD up over 0.5%, Alibaba and Xiaomi both up nearly 0.5%, Tencent down over 0.5%, and Kuaishou down nearly 1.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) rose by 1.06% [1] Southbound Capital - On August 18, southbound capital recorded a net inflow of 1.386 billion HKD, bringing the total net inflow for the year to 940.308 billion HKD, significantly exceeding last year's total [1] U.S. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results overnight, with the Dow Jones down 0.08%, S&P 500 down 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.03%. Notable declines included Sherwin-Williams and Amgen, both down over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks had mixed performances, with Xunlei up over 37% and Niu Technologies down nearly 10%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.12% [1] Earnings Reports - Recently, the Hong Kong stock market entered a period of concentrated earnings disclosures. On August 18, Leap Motor reported a net profit of 30 million CNY for the first half of the year, becoming the second Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer to achieve semi-annual profitability [2] - Leap Motor raised its annual sales target to between 580,000 and 650,000 units, with a goal of challenging 1 million units in sales next year [2] Short Selling Data - On August 18, a total of 638 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with total short selling amounting to 33.484 billion HKD. The top three stocks by short selling amount were Tencent Holdings at 1.598 billion HKD, Xiaomi Group at 1.255 billion HKD, and Alibaba at 1.135 billion HKD [3] Institutional Insights - According to Guotai Junan, the acceleration of AI applications is benefiting Hong Kong's tech sector, which is seen as a main investment theme. The AI industry is expected to grow rapidly due to technological and policy catalysts [4] - The State Council's recent approval of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan aims to promote large-scale commercial applications of AI, which could enhance the competitive edge of Hong Kong's tech leaders [4] - The Hong Kong market is also expected to benefit from strengthened dividend policies and low interest rates, making new consumption and innovative pharmaceutical assets attractive compared to A-shares [4] Hong Kong ETFs - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) focuses on e-commerce and new consumption sectors, which are relatively scarce compared to A-shares [5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets in China, representing a scarcity of tech leaders compared to A-shares [5]

家人们，美股又双叒叕震荡了？别慌，帮主今天带你们看透这潭深水背后的暗流涌动！隔夜三大指数看似波澜不惊，实则暗潮汹涌——道指微跌0.08%， 纳指勉强收红，标普500几乎纹丝不动。但你以为这是暴风雨前的宁静？错！这分明是主力资金在悄悄调仓换股，为即将到来的降息盛宴铺路。 先聊聊美联储这根指挥棒。本周杰克逊霍尔年会可是重头戏，鲍威尔的讲话比任何大片都刺激。市场现在押注9月降息概率高达85%，这就像提前剧透了 电影结局，但过程依然充满悬念。想想看，美联储从去年的鹰派加息到如今的鸽派转向，这剧情反转比美剧还精彩。不过帮主提醒一句，降息周期初期 市场往往波动加剧，就像冲浪时遇到暗流，稳住方向比盲目冲刺更重要。 零售业财报这周要集体"交作业"了。沃尔玛、家得宝这些零售巨头的业绩，就像美国消费市场的体温计。富国银行的专家说得很直白，关税和通胀可能让 这份成绩单不太好看。但别急着抛售，消费韧性就像弹簧，压得越低反弹力越强。特别是那些能把成本压力转嫁给消费者的公司，反而可能在逆境中脱 颖而出，就像当年经济危机时的麦当劳，靠低价策略逆势扩张。 地缘政治这边也是好戏连台。特朗普和普京通了电话，居然支持俄乌直接谈判，这可比好莱坞编剧 ...