Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold price fluctuated and closed down at $3314.18 per ounce, with a high of $3345.35 and a low of $3301.47 during the trading day [1][9] - The COMEX gold futures closed at $3314.00 per ounce [9] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings stood at 956.23 tons [9][10] Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan after 170.7 billion yuan matured [2][10] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1729 against the USD, down 50 basis points from the previous trading day, with the USD index rising by 1.02% to 98.6694 [15][2] Group 3: Macro Events and Trade Agreements - Trump announced that the U.S. will soon impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with global tariffs expected to be around 15-20% [2][17] - The EU and U.S. have established a general framework for a trade agreement, but specific details, including those related to alcoholic beverages, are still under negotiation [2][17] - The trade agreement includes a $750 billion energy purchase commitment and a $600 billion investment commitment from the EU, which may increase energy costs in Europe and accelerate capital outflow, negatively impacting the European economy [2][17] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.14% at 44,837.56 points, S&P 500 up 0.02% at 6,389.77 points, and Nasdaq up 0.33% at 21,178.58 points [16] - Chinese A-shares saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44% [16]

Group 1 - The core argument of the articles is that while Trump's tariff policies have led to some market volatility, the overall impact on the U.S. economy has been limited and within the normal range of economic fluctuations [1][3][4] - Analysts have differing views on the implications of Trump's policies, with some predicting significant economic turmoil while others argue that the changes are part of a normal economic cycle [3][4] - The success of Trump's economic policies hinges more on political factors rather than purely economic ones, as they aim to overturn decades of established trade policies [2][5] Group 2 - The analysis highlights that the S&P 500 index rose by 11.8% from April 1 to July 18, 2025, indicating a recovery and resilience in the market despite initial concerns [4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield decreased from a peak of 4.61% on May 21 to 4.42% by July 18, suggesting a stabilization in the bond market [4] - The articles emphasize that while the tariff policies and a declining dollar may alter trade dynamics, they do not necessarily correlate with a significant downturn in U.S. economic growth [5][13] Group 3 - Trump's administration has seen the dollar experience its fastest decline since 1973, which is viewed as a strategic move to enhance U.S. competitiveness in global markets [6][10] - The combination of tariff measures and dollar depreciation has led to an estimated 25% increase in the average price of imported goods within six months [11][13] - The articles suggest that while the trade geography of the U.S. may change significantly, the overall economic slowdown is driven by different underlying economic forces [13]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 24, 2023, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, but a month-on-month decrease of 15.2%[2] - Subway passenger volume growth in July was 0.36% year-on-year and 4.31% month-on-month, indicating sustained travel demand[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - By July 26, 2023, the average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 83.38%, while the operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.77 percentage points to 73.11%[3] - The operating rate of semi-steel tires dropped by 3.25 percentage points to 73.8% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of anti-involution policies[3] Price Performance - As of July 25, 2023, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.35% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 0.27%[4] - The price of eggs surged by 5.56% week-on-week due to seasonal demand from summer tourism and early Mid-Autumn Festival preparations[4] International Macro - The U.S. employment market remains stable, with initial jobless claims dropping to 217,000, alleviating concerns about rising unemployment rates[9] - The U.S. PMI for manufacturing in July was 49.5, below the expected 52.7, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[9] Policy and Market Trends - The yield on 30-year government bonds rose to 1.95%, while the yield on 10-year bonds reached 1.7%, indicating a significant adjustment in the bond market[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1763.8 in July, reflecting a 5.3% month-on-month increase but a 7.8% year-on-year decline, indicating fluctuating shipping demand[2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan has spent $550 billion to buy U.S. tariffs, resulting in a mere 15% reduction in tariffs, raising questions about the implications for global trade dynamics and U.S. economic policy [3][5][6] Group 1: Economic Implications - The transaction reflects a shift from traditional diplomatic negotiations to a cash-based approach in tariff discussions, potentially altering global trade rules [5][6] - If other countries follow Japan's lead and attempt to buy tariffs, it could transform the U.S. into a marketplace for tariffs, raising concerns about the future of international trade agreements [5][6][7] Group 2: Historical Context - This is not the first instance of Japan engaging in significant financial maneuvers to secure trade advantages; a similar situation occurred in 1985 with the Plaza Accord [3][6] - Japan's economic strength allows it to undertake such large expenditures, which may not be feasible for other nations lacking similar financial resources [6][7] Group 3: U.S. Trade Strategy - Trump's suggestion to allow other countries to purchase tariffs indicates a potential shift in U.S. trade strategy, emphasizing financial transactions over traditional negotiation methods [5][6] - The approach raises concerns about the sustainability of global economic order and the reliance on financial power in trade negotiations [6][7]

Group 1 - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, dropping from $1 trillion in 2022 to $756.3 billion by May 2024, marking the lowest level since 2009 [3][4] - The reduction in US Treasury holdings includes a sell-off of $173.2 billion in 2022, $50.8 billion in 2023, and $57.3 billion in 2024, indicating a trend of "liquidation" [3][4] - The shift in China's investment strategy is driven by concerns over the volatility of the US dollar and a desire to reduce dependency on it, while simultaneously increasing gold reserves to 2,296 tons by May 2024 [4][10] Group 2 - Other countries are also reducing their US Treasury holdings, with Saudi Arabia decreasing from $116 billion in 2016 to $80 billion in 2024, and Germany cutting $20 billion in the first quarter of 2024 [8][10] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum globally, with countries like Australia planning to reduce their US Treasury holdings from 60% to 50% over the next two years [8][10] - The global financial landscape is shifting, with non-dollar asset allocation rising to nearly 30% in 2024, more than doubling in five years, indicating a challenge to the dollar's dominance [12]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China showed strong resilience and vitality in the first half of 2025, with cross-border income and expenditure reaching a historical high of 7.6 trillion USD, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [1] - There was a net inflow of 127.3 billion USD in cross-border funds, with a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 46% in the second quarter [1] - The foreign exchange reserves remained stable at 33,174 billion USD by the end of June, with the RMB accounting for 53% of cross-border receipts and payments [1] Group 2 - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has increased, with foreign holdings exceeding 600 billion USD, indicating strong international interest in the RMB bond market [3] - In the stock market, foreign net purchases of domestic stocks and funds reached 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [3] - Notably, the net increase in foreign holdings in May and June alone was 18.8 billion USD, reflecting a renewed confidence among international investors in the Chinese stock market [3] Group 3 - The stable development of the economic fundamentals has created a favorable macro environment for foreign investment, with several international investment banks upgrading China's asset ratings from neutral to overweight [4] - High-quality development of the financial market has provided a conducive policy environment for foreign investment, enhancing the convenience of foreign participation in China's financial markets [4] - China's financial market system is comprehensive and deep, with both bond and stock market capitalizations ranking second globally, offering diverse investment options for foreign investors [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that China's foreign exchange market performed better than expected in the first half of the year, with stable foreign capital allocation in RMB assets and a positive outlook for future investment [1][3][6] - The foreign exchange market showed strong resilience and vitality, with five key features: steady increase in foreign-related income and expenditure, continued net inflow of cross-border funds, basic balance in supply and demand, active market trading, and stable foreign exchange reserves [1][6] - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35, which helped stabilize the macro economy and international payments [1][6] Group 2 - Foreign capital's allocation in RMB assets is expected to have sustainable growth potential, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, and a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [3][4] - The international balance of payments is maintaining basic equilibrium, with a steady increase in the current account surplus and a corresponding financial account deficit, indicating a self-balancing pattern [2][6] - Three factors are expected to support the continued stable operation of the foreign exchange market: robust economic fundamentals, steady progress in opening up to the outside world, and enhanced resilience of the foreign exchange market [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has shown resilience amid complex external conditions, with stable expectations for the RMB exchange rate and continued net inflows of cross-border capital [1][5][11]. Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [3]. - The combined settlement and sale of foreign exchange by banks amounted to $2.3 trillion, up 3% year-on-year, the second-highest level for the same period [3]. - The RMB accounted for 53% of cross-border transactions, indicating its growing importance in international trade [3]. Capital Inflows and Market Stability - There was a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border capital from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of the previous year, with a 46% increase in the second quarter [3]. - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [5][11]. - The foreign exchange market showed balanced supply and demand, with a total trading volume of $21 trillion, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [3]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion [8]. - In the first half of 2025, foreign investors net purchased $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [8]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is approximately 3% to 4%, indicating potential for further growth in foreign investment in RMB assets [8][9]. Economic and Policy Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and enhancing the financial market [9]. - The foreign exchange market has accumulated experience in counter-cyclical adjustments, with improved regulatory effectiveness to mitigate external shocks [11]. - The overall balance of payments is expected to maintain a pattern of current account surpluses and capital account deficits, contributing to market stability [11].

Core Insights - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets has shown stability and growth, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion and net inflows into domestic stocks and funds reaching $10.1 billion in the first half of the year, particularly increasing to $18.8 billion in May and June [1][3] - The overall foreign investment in RMB assets is expected to continue its stable and sustainable growth, supported by a robust macroeconomic environment and improved financial market conditions in China [3][5] Group 1 - The GDP of China grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with domestic demand contributing 77% to economic growth in the second quarter, an increase of 17 percentage points [4] - The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand is expected to further consolidate the positive economic trend, with several international investment banks upgrading their ratings on Chinese assets from neutral to overweight [5] - China's financial market has developed a comprehensive and deep system, with both bond and stock markets ranking second globally, providing diverse options for foreign investors [5] Group 2 - The demand for diversified global asset allocation has created favorable opportunities for foreign investment in China, as RMB assets are seen as important for risk diversification and yield enhancement [5] - In the first five months of the year, net inflows of equity investment into China reached $31.1 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, while outbound direct investment remained stable at $51.9 billion [6] - As of March 2025, China's external liabilities are projected to be $7.1 trillion, with external assets at $10.7 trillion, reflecting the effectiveness of attracting foreign investment and holding RMB assets [6]

1. Market Index and Commodity Price Tracking - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,323.07 on July 22, 2025, down 19.12 points or 0.043% from the previous trading day [2]. - The NASDAQ Composite Index closed at 20,974.17, up 78.51 points or 0.376% [2]. - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6,305.60, up 8.81 points or 0.140% [2]. - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,994.14, up 168.48 points or 0.679% [2]. - COMEX gold futures rose 1.633% to $3,410.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.121% to $39.24 per ounce [2]. - LME copper futures rose 0.740% to $9,867.00 per ton, and LME aluminum futures rose 0.114% to $2,641.00 per ton [2]. 2. Macroeconomic News - European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit China on July 24, 2025 [7]. - The State Council of China has announced the "Housing Rental Regulations," which will come into effect on September 15, 2025 [7]. - China's LPR remained unchanged in July 2025, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% [7]. - Hainan Free Trade Port has released detailed rules for cross - border asset management pilot projects, with an initial pilot scale limit of 10 billion yuan [8]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term but maintain a downward trend, with a continued weak supply - demand pattern [10]. - The oil market is expected to be volatile, with Brazil's soybean exports in July expected to increase by 24% year - on - year, and Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 10 up 5.31% month - on - month [10]. - Sugar futures rose slightly on July 21, with a narrow - range volatile trend. The market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the decline of US sugar prices restricts the rebound space of domestic sugar prices [10]. - Corn futures rose on July 21. The price has broken through the key resistance level of 2,300 yuan. It is recommended to go long at low levels, but beware of callback risks [10]. - Pig prices have been falling, and the supply in the next 2 - 3 months is expected to remain abundant, with futures prices remaining volatile [13]. - Egg prices are rising, with short - term upward adjustment space due to factors such as reduced production rates in high - temperature weather and increased demand from food factories [12]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Caustic soda prices rose on Monday. Although the supply is increasing, the cost support is strong. Attention should be paid to the upper pressure range of 2,600 - 2,700 yuan/ton [13]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the range of 1,720 - 1,850 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, but there is still support from autumn fertilizer demand and export expectations [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to consolidate in a high - level range. The US - EU agreement and the upcoming stable - growth plan for non - ferrous metals provide support, but demand has weakened [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels. Although relevant domestic policies have boosted prices, the inventory accumulation expectation is still strong [15]. - Alumina prices rebounded strongly on Monday and are expected to continue to operate strongly in the short term [15]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the release of stable - growth work plans for key industries and positive macro - atmosphere [15]. - Ferroalloy prices are expected to have upward space in the short term, but in the long term, the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged [15]. 3.4 Options and Finance - The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on July 21. The ChiNext Index is approaching last year's high, small - cap stock indices are hitting new highs, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through the previous high [16]. - The "anti - involution" sector is fermenting, and the future cycle stock market is worth paying attention to. It is recommended to focus on IF, IM, and IC low - buying opportunities [17]. - For option investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddle options to short volatility [19].