1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Demand**: As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30%. The downstream is in a relative off - season. Although the premium strengthened after the price decline, the trading sentiment remained weak. The output of terminal industrial products such as air conditioners decreased month - on - month. Downstream buyers followed the market on a need - to - basis, and market sentiment was cautious [7]. - **Macro**: US CPI and PPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and inflation data was mild. The decision of the Fed to cut interest rates is highly uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in July remains unclear, but the market generally believes it is low. The US dollar strengthened this week, suppressing the prices in the non - ferrous market. Copper tariffs may be officially implemented on August 1st. In addition to refined copper, copper products may also be subject to tariffs. On July 18th, the State Council Information Office announced a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non - ferrous metals, focusing on both supply and demand [8]. - **Supply**: As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in July to increase by 15,500 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37%. In the international market, Peruvian protesters lifted the blockade, and the copper transportation and export channels that had been blocked for more than two weeks have resumed [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - Macro Information - US CPI in June was 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.4%. Core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.8%. CPI was 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations; core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3%. PPI in June increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.6%. Core PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 3% [13]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The weekly high was 78,590 yuan/ton, the low was 77,700 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.13%, and the interval decline was - 0.03% [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - Copper Industry Disturbances - Vedanta Resources' Zambian subsidiary Konkola Copper Mines announced on July 16th that it will shut down and transform its smelter to improve capacity efficiency, which is a key measure to fulfill its $1.2 billion five - year investment commitment. - The world's largest cable manufacturer, Prysmian SpA, supports the Trump administration's planned 50% copper import tariff, believing it will strengthen the US domestic supply chain, although costs will be passed on to end - users [21]. 3.4 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of July 21st, the average spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of copper was low. After the copper price declined, spot circulation was smooth, and the spot premium strengthened [27]. 3.5 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of July 18th, the weekly change of LME copper was 0.83%, closing at $9,720 per ton. After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper spot premium weakened significantly. Currently, LME copper is at a discount to futures, mainly due to the sufficient supply of market - available copper and the weakening of spot prices [32]. 3.6 Copper Concentrate Port Data - Inventory - As of July 18th, the copper concentrate inventory at 7 major domestic ports decreased by 32,000 tons to 457,000 tons this week. The copper concentrate inventory continued to decline and is currently at an absolute low level in the same period over the years. In May, China imported about 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the average monthly import volume of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [37]. 3.7 Smelter Processing Fees - TC/RC - As of July 18, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee was - $43.16 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents per pound. Both fees have stabilized and rebounded this week. One smelting enterprise has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, which has a limited impact on refined copper production [43]. 3.8 Scrap Copper - Refined - Scrap Spread - As of July 18, 2025, the refined - scrap spread in the mainstream areas was 827 yuan/ton. The weekly spread strengthened, while the monthly spread weakened. Currently, the refined - scrap spread is at a low level, the substitution advantage of scrap copper is poor, the scrap copper rod production start - up rate increased slightly, and the scrap copper procurement sentiment was low [50]. 3.9 Inventory Information - COMEX - As of July 18th, the COMEX copper inventory was 242,800 short tons, and it increased by 2,379 short tons in the past week, a change of 0.02%. As the copper tariff implementation on August 1st approaches, the rush - to - buy copper sentiment is fading, and the inventory accumulation speed in the US has slowed down. As of July 18th, the LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. Since the copper tariff was implemented in early July, the LME copper inventory has rebounded from a low level, suppressing the LME copper price [56]. 3.10 Inventory Information - SHFE - As of July 18th, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from last week, a change of - 16.73%, and a decrease of 6,600 tons from last month, a change of - 15.00%. After the 50% copper tariff was implemented, the export channels tightened, and the domestic copper inventory increased significantly. In the past two days, it has decreased slightly due to new spot purchases after the price decline [60]. 3.11 Inventory Information - Bonded Area - As of July 17th, the cumulative copper spot inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 73,900 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and a decrease of 800 tons from the 14th. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 69,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the 10th and unchanged from the 14th. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 5,500 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the 10th and the 14th. The bonded area inventory showed a downward trend. Although there were still smelter export goods entering the warehouse this week, some warehouses also had goods shipped out for export, resulting in a decrease in inventory [63]. 3.12 Refined Copper Monthly Imports and Exports - In June 2025, China exported 154,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 33.8%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 743,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 464,000 tons. From January to June, China imported 2.633 million tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In June, China imported 337,000 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month increase of 44,300 tons and a year - on - year increase of 92,300 tons. Exports of refined copper were 79,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 49.92% [68]. 3.13 Downstream Demand - **Copper Rod**: The output of copper rods continued to decline slightly. The market acceptance was low, especially due to insufficient domestic raw material supply and upstream suppliers hoarding goods. In July, the off - season demand affected copper rod production and sales. - **Copper Foil**: The price of copper foil fluctuated. The market supply and demand were weak this week, and the downstream market was not optimistic, with general support from the supply - demand side. - **Copper Tube**: The output of copper tubes decreased significantly due to the shrinking long - term orders from downstream. Large enterprises had a more prominent production cut due to their high previous - period base, while small and medium - sized enterprises had a relatively gentle decline due to capacity limitations [73]. 3.14 Downstream End - Users - As of the end of May, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.08 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 56.9%, and wind power installed capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.1%. - In June 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 163.296 million units, a cumulative increase of 5.5% [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discounts, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index rebounds slightly but remains in the negative range, and port inventories increase slightly. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the copper ore quotation slightly. - On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials and the good price of the by - product sulfuric acid of smelters, the production willingness of smelters remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply may increase steadily and slightly. - On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. - In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory accumulates slightly but still operates at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually repaired. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.65, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0536, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreases slightly. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars converge slightly. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position, slightly bullish trading in a volatile market, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,700 yuan/ton, up 1,290 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,865.50 US dollars/ton, up 87 US dollars. - The inter - month spread of the main contract is 0 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 137,484 lots, down 7,946 lots. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are - 1,352 lots, up 3,254 lots; the LME copper inventory is 122,175 tons, up 25 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the SHFE is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 14,075 tons, up 2,875 tons. - The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 28,177 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,555 yuan/ton, up 895 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,640 yuan/ton, up 1,015 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the CU main contract is - 145 yuan/ton, down 395 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 53.76 US dollars/ton, up 4.95 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 US dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 US dollars. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,960 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,660 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. - The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the North is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 1.302 billion tons, up 480 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,090 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,300 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.2145 billion tons, up 118.5 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.64%, up 1.44 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.12%, up 0.83 percentage points. - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.49%, down 0.0044 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.65, up 0.0536. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US rose slightly by about 1 point to 61.8 in July, reaching a five - month high; consumers' expectation of price increases in the next year dropped to 4.4%, the lowest since February. - Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: The latest consumer price index data shows that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation, and he is "slightly worried" about this. Interest rates are expected to drop significantly in the next year. - The Ministry of Commerce: China's consumer market ranks second in the world. In the past four years, the average annual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.5%, and it is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, the cumulative foreign investment absorbed has exceeded 700 billion US dollars, and the average annual growth rate of China's foreign investment has exceeded 5%. The proportion of exports to the US in total exports decreased from 17.4% in 2020 to 14.7% in 2024. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: It will continue to implement the high - quality development implementation plans for the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, and issue and implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in the non - ferrous metals industry; encourage innovation in new non - ferrous metal materials and green and low - carbon process technologies, build a number of green mines, green factories, and green industrial parks, cultivate typical scenarios, benchmark factories, and benchmark enterprises for digital transformation, and promote the in - depth integration of artificial intelligence technology with the industry. - Three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to deploy further standardization of the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry. - The Fourth Central Steering Group conducted a special research symposium on comprehensively rectifying the irrational competition problem in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring leading enterprises to compete legally, rationally, and jointly resist irrational competition in the industry to maintain a fair and just market competition order. - According to Yicai, the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is located in Nyingchi City, Tibet Autonomous Region. The project mainly adopts the development method of straightening the river bend and diverting water through tunnels, and will build 5 cascade power stations with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The project's electricity is mainly for external consumption, taking into account the local self - use needs in Tibet. [2]

国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年07月20日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜产业链周度报告 铜：下游逢低买货，宏观情绪边际提升，支撑价格走强 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：77000-80000元/吨 铜的精废价差处于历史偏低水平 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国内铜社会库存处于历史同期低位 资料来源 SMM ，iFinD同花顺 国泰君安期货研究 ： 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 01-02 01-11 01-20 01-29 02-11 02-24 03-06 03-17 03-27 04-08 04-18 04-29 05-13 05-23 06-03 06-13 06-24 07-04 07-15 07-25 08-05 08-15 08-26 09-05 09-16 09- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The controversy within the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased this week, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and moved high with a strong intraday oscillation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expected tight supply of copper may improve. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is weak overall, except for the bright refrigerator production and sales data. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened intraday, closing at 77,840. The long positions of the top 20 were 103,634 lots, a decrease of 4,798 lots; the short positions were 102,315 lots, a decrease of 1,478 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On July 17, 2025, the LME official price was 9,620 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 34.5 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of July 11, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.32 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of July 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a slight increase of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 241,800 short tons, an increase of 2,379 short tons from the previous period [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The good economic data in the United States supports the price of copper. The strong retail sales data and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims last week in the US led to the rise of the US dollar and the US stock market, with the S&P and the Nasdaq closing at new highs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,850, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price was 78,260, with a night - session increase of 0.53%. The price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 9,678, with an increase of 0.43% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 35,722, an increase of 1,534 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 138,006, an increase of 1,690. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,283, a decrease of 5,365, and the open interest was 268,000, an increase of 408 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 42,139, a decrease of 8,103, and the LME copper inventory was 122,150, an increase of 1,150. The LME copper注销仓单比 was 9.17%, a decrease of 1.02% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: There were various changes in different price spreads, such as the LME copper ascension and discount, the spread between spot and futures, and the spread between different contracts [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The strong US retail sales data and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims last week led to the rise of the US dollar and the US stock market, with the S&P and the Nasdaq closing at new highs [1]. - **Industry**: China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates in June were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in June were 464,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [1]. 3.3 Other Industry News - Azerbaijan's copper concentrate production soared nearly 12 times in the first half of this year, reaching about 1,200 tons, much higher than only more than 100 tons in the same period last year [3]. - India continued to impose counter - subsidy duties on continuously cast copper wires from four countries including Indonesia [3]. - Vedanta Resources Ltd.'s copper mine in Zambia plans to renovate its smelter to increase production [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors. The expected 50% tariff on US copper in late July, along with weakening demand and existing supply - side contradictions, may lead to price fluctuations. The主力 contract price is expected to be affected by the 78000 support level [1]. - **Aluminum**: For alumina, the market is in a state of small - scale surplus, with prices expected to oscillate between 2950 - 3250. For aluminum, high - level prices face pressure due to inventory accumulation, weakening demand, and macro uncertainties, with the主力 contract price expected to range from 20000 - 20800 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The regenerative aluminum market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with demand being the more prominent issue. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract running between 19400 - 20200 [4]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market has a loose supply expectation in the long - term. Although the inventory level provides some price support, the domestic social inventory may enter a stockpiling cycle. The main contract price is expected to range from 21500 - 23000 [7]. - **Nickel**: In the nickel market, the cost support for refined nickel is weakening, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The short - term price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference of 118000 - 126000 [10]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period. It is recommended to hold short positions from the previous high [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel market has weak demand and slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract running between 12500 - 13000 [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market has short - term price support due to news and capital sentiment, but the medium - term pressure remains, and there may be a downward trend. The short - term main contract is expected to run between 63000 - 68000 [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.59% to 77995 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 155 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 35.97% to 545 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 113.49 million tons, and the import volume in May increased by 1.23% to 25.31 million tons. The domestic social inventory increased by 3.29% to 14.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.20% to 20510 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 110 yuan/ton. The alumina price in Shandong increased by 0.32% to 3150 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 725.81 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 360.90 million tons. The aluminum profile production rate remained unchanged at 49.50% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20000 yuan/ton. The spread between 2511 - 2512 increased by 40 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerative aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 1.49% to 61.50 million tons, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.30% to 25.50 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.14% to 22150 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss increased by 63.52 yuan/ton to - 1260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 58.51 million tons, and the import volume in May decreased by 5.36% to 2.67 million tons. The galvanizing production rate increased by 1.81% to 58.29% [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.11% to 120400 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss decreased by 447 yuan/ton to - 2442 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31800 tons, and the import volume increased by 116.90% to 19157 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 0.83% to 24922 tons [10]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.71% to 264600 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2508 - 2509 decreased by 120 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume increased by 36.39% to 13449 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14840 tons [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the spread between 2509 - 2510 decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 companies) in April decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons, and the 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 3.39% to 52.48 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.39% to 64900 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 110 yuan/ton to - 1960 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93876 tons. The total inventory increased by 2.27% to 99858 tons [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the electrolytic copper in non - US regions shows a pattern of "looser supply expectation and weaker actual demand", and the spot contradiction will be gradually resolved. The copper price may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt the copper price. The main contract should focus on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported by the supply tightness expectation of bauxite in Guinea and the low inventory of alumina futures warehouse receipts. However, the high - capacity operation situation remains unchanged, and the market is slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 this week. For aluminum, although the domestic consumption stimulus supports the price, the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. The price of the main contract is expected to face pressure at high levels this week, with a reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. The subsequent weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract running between 19,400 - 20,200 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose, but the output growth rate of domestic mines in June fell short of expectations, which supports the price. The supply of refined zinc is expected to be loose, while the demand is marginally weak. In the long - term, if the mine growth rate is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the price center may move down. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [8]. Nickel - Macro uncertainties increase, and the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term disk is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. Short - term macro fluctuations are large, and previous high - level short positions should be held [14]. Stainless Steel - There are macro uncertainties, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The low - level nickel - iron price weakens the cost support, the supply - side production cut is less than expected, and the overall demand is weak. The short - term disk will fluctuate, with the main contract running between 12,500 - 13,000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, the fundamentals still face pressure, and the excess supply may intensify. The disk is in a game between sentiment and fundamentals. The short - term disk is expected to run in a relatively strong range, with the main contract running between 63,000 - 68,000, while there is still downward risk in the medium - term [20]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.34%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount was - 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,470 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.54%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount was 10 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 20,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.50% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,180 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The premium/discount was 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 121,750 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.33%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount dropped to 1,950 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.50% [11]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 266,500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.07%. The SMM 1 tin premium/discount remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) rose to 12,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.39% [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.41%. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) dropped to - 2070 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 168.83% [20]. Month - to - Month Spreads - **Copper**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 50 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 140 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2511 - 2512 was 90 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was - 70 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Tin**: The spread between 2507 - 2508 was 130 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was - 20 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2508 - 2509 was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [1]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the alumina output was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%. The electrolytic aluminum output was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. In May, the import volume was 250,500 tons, and the export volume was 10,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In June, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 255,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.30%. In May, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 97,000 tons, and the export volume was 24,200 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: In June, the refined zinc output was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, and the export volume was 1,400 tons [8]. - **Nickel**: In June, China's refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The import volume of refined nickel was 19,157 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous month [11]. - **Tin**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%. The SMM refined tin output was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37% [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April (43 companies), the output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 125,100 tons, and the export volume was 436,300 tons [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In June, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%. The demand was 93,815 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease [20].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting August 1, citing national security concerns due to copper's critical role in weapon manufacturing and high-tech products [1] - Chilean President Boric strongly opposed the tariff, emphasizing the need to protect Chile's copper industry and advocating for multilateral negotiations while exploring new markets in Asia and Europe [1] - Following the announcement, New York copper futures surged by 17%, marking the largest single-day increase since 1989, raising concerns about rising manufacturing costs in the U.S. and potential price hikes for consumer goods [3] Group 2 - On July 9, Trump announced a similar 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, prompting a strong response from Brazilian President Lula, who criticized the U.S. for its past trade surplus with Brazil [5] - Brazil is a major supplier of everyday consumer goods to the U.S., including coffee, orange juice, and beef, and the tariff could lead to significant price increases in American supermarkets, exacerbating inflationary pressures [5] - The Trump administration's immigration policies have faced backlash from California, with state officials arguing that these measures threaten employment opportunities in agriculture, technology, and services that rely on immigrant labor [6]

Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - This week, copper prices declined. The US copper tariff policy had two unexpected changes: a 50% tariff rate and implementation between late July and early August. This high - tariff and fast - implementation policy ended the ongoing export - to - US arbitrage path, increased price pressure on LME copper, and caused inventory to show an inflection point. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on SHFE copper and short on LME copper [4][86]. - The mid - year long - term contract negotiation settled at $0, severely hitting smelters' long - term profitability. Currently, domestic production remains high, and sulfuric acid and by - product profits barely cover losses, with an extremely unhealthy profit structure. On the demand side, the domestic off - season is deepening, spot premiums are falling from high levels, but due to the internal - external price difference, increased domestic exports lead to a weak expectation of inventory accumulation. The LME squeeze problem has eased, Asian warehouse inventories have increased, and premiums have declined [4][86]. - Copper prices saw a significant reduction in positions and a decline this week, indicating that most of the previous active long positions in the domestic market have left. There is still a lack of active short - selling power. It is necessary to monitor changes in LME copper. With insufficient domestic short - selling power and during the tariff game phase, macro expectations may continue to face pressure. Keep an eye on the progress of US copper tariffs. As copper prices closed in the negative on the weekly chart, continue to hold the strategy of selling near - month CALL options and buying far - month PUT options [4][86]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Macro - level - In June, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable. The eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, unchanged from the previous month. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose 0.7% month - on - month to 49%, while France's manufacturing PMI declined 2% month - on - month to 47.8%. The US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52%, unchanged from the previous month. In June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, remaining below the boom - bust line for three consecutive months. New orders and new export orders improved slightly in June, and the service industry PMI gradually stabilized [12]. - The high tariff rate and fast implementation ended the export - to - US arbitrage path. The market profited from the short - term price difference decline of COMEX copper and LME copper. The implementation of the US copper tariff increased price pressure on LME copper, and inventory began to show an inflection point [4][13][86]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - According to ICSG data, in December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%. From January to December 2024, global copper concentrate production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. The 2024 market had a surplus of 301,000 tons, compared with a shortage of 52,000 tons in the previous year. In April 2025, global copper mine production was 1.909 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. From January to April 2025, cumulative copper mine production was 7.526 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. In April 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply shortage of 38,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 12,000 tons in March. In the first four months of this year, the market had a supply surplus of 233,000 tons, similar to the surplus of 236,000 tons in the same period last year [21]. - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import of copper ores and concentrates was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In May 2025, copper concentrate data were generally lower than market expectations. In May, China imported about 2.4 million tons of copper concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the average monthly import of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [27]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - On July 11, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - $43.79 per dry ton, an increase of $0.46 per dry ton from the previous period. The CSPT group decided not to set a spot purchase guidance price for copper concentrate in the third quarter of 2025. In 2025, the long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrate was set at $21.25 per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [31]. Refined Copper Production - In June 2025, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 3,400 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.3%, and increased by 12.93% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative production increased by 674,700 tons, an increase of 11.40%. In July 2025, it is expected that national electrolytic copper production will further increase, with a month - on - month increase of 15,500 tons (1.37%) and a year - on - year increase of 122,200 tons (11.88%) [37]. Refined Copper Import Volume - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, imports were 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, exports were 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In May 2025, China imported 292,700 tons of electrolytic copper, a year - on - year decrease of 15.64% [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China's imports of copper scrap and waste were 217,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. The cumulative import in 2024 was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In May 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and waste were 185,200 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import was 962,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.98% [47]. Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference - This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 25.45%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 3.05 percentage points year - on - year. The average price difference between scrap and refined copper rods this week was 991 yuan per ton, a decrease of 558 yuan month - on - month. Due to the decline in copper prices, recycled copper rod enterprises' raw material inventory was relatively abundant, and the number of operating days increased. The weekly finished product inventory of recycled copper rod sample enterprises was 5,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 250 tons. The decline in copper prices significantly narrowed the price difference between scrap and refined copper rods, eliminating the economic benefits of recycled copper rods. Cable enterprises preferred to purchase refined copper rods from traders, and recycled copper rod enterprises faced increasing sales pressure [51]. Consumption - end - In 2024, from January to December, power source cumulative investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. In 2025, from January to May, power source cumulative investment was 257.782 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.39%, and grid investment was 203.986 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [52]. - In 2024, in December, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. In 2025, from January to May, the air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The monthly production declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate slowed down, indicating that the industry entered the off - season [56]. - From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. From January to June 2025, domestic automobile sales were 12.57 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. Among them, domestic sales of traditional fuel vehicles were 6.693 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. In June 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.4% and 26.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.8% of total automobile sales. From January to June 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 44.3% of total automobile sales [61]. - In 2024, from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real - estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year [63]. Other Elements Inventory - As of July 11, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 424,300 tons, a weekly increase of 23,500 tons. LME copper inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 108,700 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,500 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 13,200 tons to 234,200 tons. Domestic exports to LME led to overall inventory accumulation. As of July 10, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 78,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from last week [68]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of July 8, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 39,604 lots, a weekly increase of 5,914 lots. The non - commercial long position was 80,843 lots, a weekly increase of 6,218 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 41,239 lots, a weekly increase of 304 lots. The speculation of a 50% tax rate on COMEX copper prices led to a rapid increase, with long - position holders adding positions and the net long position expanding [70]. Premium and Discount - As of July 11, the LME copper spot was at a discount of $21.57 per ton. The concern about LME copper squeeze was relieved, and the spot premium quickly changed to a discount pattern. With the increase in Asian warehouse inventories, the LME squeeze crisis eased. This week, copper prices declined, and downstream procurement sentiment improved, but due to the seasonal off - season, downstream orders improved limitedly. Shanghai's inventory decreased slightly this week, mainly consuming previously imported low - price goods. Next week, approaching the delivery date, holders will actively sell goods under the high monthly spread, and the SHFE copper spot discount will expand, but the discount range is expected to be limited. After the contract change, holders will start quoting at a premium of 150 - 200 yuan per ton, but actual transactions are unlikely to improve significantly [80]. Basis - As of July 11, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Grade 1 copper and the continuous third - month contract was 400 yuan per ton [82].

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by President Trump to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper reflects a chaotic economic policy that hinders the development of U.S. manufacturers both now and in the future [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Increasing the cost of copper for Americans will make U.S. aircraft manufacturing less attractive, giving competitors from Europe, Brazil, and Canada an advantage [1] - The tariff could exacerbate the already challenging situation for the U.S. shipbuilding industry, which relies heavily on protectionist policies [1] - The U.S. imports most of its copper from Chile, Canada, and Peru, indicating a reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly China for certain materials [1] Group 2: Domestic Copper Industry - The U.S. has a strong domestic copper industry that accounts for about half of the copper used in the country, primarily sourced from Arizona [2] - There are concerns that raising the price of a widely used production material will weaken U.S. competitiveness in key industries [2] Group 3: Historical Context and Policy Analysis - Historical leaders believed in active government involvement to promote industrialization, contrasting with Trump's approach which may overlook the complexities of modern economies [3] - The focus on resource extraction and primary commodity production could lead to deindustrialization, undermining the goal of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse [3][4] - Trump's tariff policies may raise the prices of essential inputs, potentially stifling capital accumulation necessary for manufacturing growth [4] Group 4: Labor and Skills Consideration - A serious industrial policy should consider establishing visa programs for skilled workers in sectors like semiconductors, batteries, and shipbuilding [5] - The importance of copper lies in its use for manufacturing other goods, suggesting that trade policies should aim to enhance production capabilities rather than hinder them [5]