Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in Shanghai nickel futures is primarily influenced by news from Indonesia regarding nickel ore approvals for 2026, raising concerns about supply adjustments and market dynamics [2][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai nickel futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract 2602 opening at 146,500 CNY/ton and dropping to a low of 133,800 CNY/ton, closing at 136,440 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 6.14% [2][7]. - The trading volume decreased to 1,520,600 contracts, down 34.3% from the previous trading day, while open interest fell by 3.69% to 128,100 contracts [2][7]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in nickel prices was triggered by a press conference held by Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, where no specific figures were disclosed regarding the approval of nickel ore mining for 2026, leading to reduced expectations for nickel ore production capacity [2][8]. - Concerns about a potential oversupply in the nickel market were exacerbated by the increase in global refined nickel inventories, with both SHFE and LME stocks rising [8].

有色金属研究 | 镍 专题报告 2026-01-09 剧烈反弹之后，如何看待镍价走势？ 报告要点： 近期镍价强势反弹更多体现为宏观交易逻辑主导的估值修复，而非产业供需格局发生实质性改 善。在商品普涨与风险偏好抬升的背景下，宏观资金持续流入显著改变了盘面主导力量，推动 价格突破前期震荡区间。 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 基本面层面，2026 年在印尼矿端配额供应相对充裕、后续新增项目投产的假设下，镍产业链过 剩压力仍较为突出，中长期镍铁与精炼镍价格仍面临向下修正风险；尤其精炼镍在短期溢价快 速扩大后，或将通过转产与增产机制引发供给弹性释放，进而抑制其估值持续扩张空间。考虑 到当前多头资金体量较大、短期内难见明显撤退迹象，同时印尼配额缩减（RKAB）叙事尚无法 证伪，镍价或仍将维持一定风险溢价，后市更大概率转入高位宽幅震荡格局。需重点关注两类 验证信号：一是 LME 与国内显性库存是否出现持续累积；二是盘面资金（尤其基金端）持仓是 否出现明显减仓或多头离场迹象，若两者同步出现，则本轮上涨行情可能逐步进入尾声。 吴坤 ...

Group 1 - The State Administration for Market Regulation has interviewed six leading companies in the photovoltaic industry regarding monopoly risks and has issued clear rectification requirements [1] - The interviewed companies include Tongwei Group, GCL-Poly Energy, Daqo New Energy, Xinte Energy, Asia Silicon, and Dongfang Hope [1] - The companies are prohibited from agreeing on production capacity, sales prices, and other market-related communications [1] Group 2 - The China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China Aviation Oil have been approved for a merger by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [3] - China Aviation Oil is the largest aviation fuel procurement and logistics company in Asia, while Sinopec is the world's largest refining company [3] Group 3 - HSBC Holdings has agreed to pay approximately €300 million to settle a tax case in France related to the "Cum-Cum" dividend tax avoidance scandal [4] - The settlement includes a fine of about €268 million and approximately €30 million in taxes [4] Group 4 - Indonesia plans to approve a coal production quota of around 600 million tons for 2026, which is lower than last year's quota of 790 million tons [5] - The reduction aims to support the prices of Indonesian mineral products, with adjustments also planned for nickel quotas [5] Group 5 - Nestlé has initiated a recall of specific batches of infant formula in Europe, prompting regulatory bodies in China to ensure the recall of affected products sold in China [7] - The Chinese authorities are emphasizing the importance of consumer safety and quality control in the infant formula market [7] Group 6 - GIC and other institutions have reportedly subscribed to shares in MiniMax's Hong Kong IPO, which raised HKD 4.8 billion [8] - The IPO attracted over 70 times the subscription from institutional investors, indicating strong market interest [8] Group 7 - Nanjing Panda has clarified that it currently has no mature products related to its high-speed brain-machine interaction technology project and has not generated sales revenue from it [9] - The company is involved in a sub-project focused on key technology development for brain-machine interface systems [9] Group 8 - Kinglong Permanent Magnet expects a net profit of between RMB 660 million and RMB 760 million for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 127% to 161% [10] - The company has achieved record high sales volumes, reinforcing its leading position in the global rare earth permanent magnet industry [10] Group 9 - Mengniu has stated that it is not related to the raw material suppliers involved in the recent Nestlé recall of infant formula [11] - The company emphasizes its adherence to strict quality control standards in its production processes [11] Group 10 - Lingbao Gold has announced an expected revenue of approximately RMB 12.935 billion to RMB 13.172 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 9% to 11% [12] - The company anticipates a net profit of approximately RMB 1.503 billion to RMB 1.573 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 115% to 125% [12] Group 11 - Three new stocks in the Hong Kong market have seen significant gains in the dark market, with Jin Xun Resources rising 35%, Ruibo Bio rising over 25%, and MiniMax rising over 15% [13] - These companies have successfully raised substantial capital through their IPOs, indicating strong investor interest [13] Group 12 - China Shipbuilding Defense has indicated that the demand for shipbuilding is expected to accelerate, potentially raising its valuation [14] - The company plans to undertake contracts worth RMB 17.45 billion in 2025, supported by a strong order backlog [14]

新华财经雅加达1月8日电（冯钰林吴郑思） 印度尼西亚能源和矿产资源部长巴赫利尔·拉哈达利亚8日表 示，印尼政府拟议在2026年批准约6亿吨的煤炭产量配额，并将根据行业需求对镍矿生产配额作出调 整，以稳定矿产品价格，避免供应过剩对市场造成冲击。 巴赫利尔表示，拟议中的2026年煤炭产量配额水平将明显低于2025年的实际产量。根据印尼能矿部矿产 和煤炭总局等官方和行业初步数据估算，2025年印尼煤炭产量在约7.5亿吨至7.9亿吨区间。近年来，印 尼煤炭产量在出口需求和企业扩产推动下持续攀升，多次突破政府设定的年度配额。 他指出，下调煤炭产量目标旨在支撑矿产品价格，维护行业长期稳定发展。"我们希望避免产量过快增 长对市场造成压力，政府有责任保持供需平衡，"巴赫利尔说。 此前，巴赫利尔以及能矿部多名官员多次公开表示，政府将逐步强化对矿业生产计划和预算（RKAB） 的审批和执行力度，确保资源开发与市场需求相匹配，防止企业无序扩产。 在镍矿方面，巴赫利尔表示，政府将采取与煤炭类似的配额管理思路，但目前尚未确定2026年的具体配 额规模。"我们正在计算该行业现有以及即将投产的冶炼和下游产能，必须确保能够为这些产能提供足 够 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is influenced by the tense situation in Venezuela and Indonesian policies, with funds flowing into the nickel sector, causing the price of the Shanghai nickel futures contract to hit a new high since June 2024. Although the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, it is expected to remain strong due to favorable policies from Indonesia and attention from profitable funds in the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors [1][3]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by the cost transmission of the sharp rise in Shanghai nickel and Indonesian nickel export restrictions. The short - term trend depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and the medium - to - long - term trend needs to focus on the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 143,500 yuan/ton and closed at 147,720 yuan/ton, up 8.00% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,132,256 (+393,922) lots, and the open interest was 132,955 (+1,474) lots. The price hit a new high since June 2024, and the bullish sentiment of funds reached a climax [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market has limited resources, and the price is stable with an upward trend. The 1.25 - grade nickel ore tender in the Philippines' Benguet mine was settled at $32.5, up from the previous level. In Indonesia, the first - phase domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the second - phase domestic trade base price is expected to rise by $3 - 5 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 153,300 yuan/ton, up 5,600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, and spot trading was cold. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 500 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,776 (-612) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 275,634 (+20,088) tons [2]. Strategy - The operation strategy is mainly range trading for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3][4]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 7, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 13,450 yuan/ton and closed at 14,025 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 288,456 (+151,355) lots, and the open interest was 112,880 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the cost transmission of Shanghai nickel and Indonesian policies, it showed a one - way upward trend and closed at the daily limit. The spot price increased synchronously, but the market was in a state of "high price but few transactions" [4]. - **Spot**: The futures price hit the daily limit, and the spot price increased significantly. The downstream inquiry was active, but the transaction was cautious. Some steel mills suspended orders. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,900 (+600) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,900 (+600) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan/nickel point to 947.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - The short - term trend depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and the medium - to - long - term trend needs to focus on the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation. The operation strategy is neutral for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have been experiencing a significant rebound since mid-December 2025, driven primarily by uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's nickel mining policies, with a notable acceleration in price increases in 2026 [1] Group 1: Nickel Price Dynamics - The main catalyst for the recent rise in nickel prices is the uncertainty regarding Indonesia's mining policies, which has tightened supply and raised cost expectations in the industry [1] - Analysts indicate that Indonesia's nickel production target for 2026 is set at approximately 250 million tons, a 34% decrease from the 379 million tons quota in 2025, aimed at preventing further price declines [1][2] - The market sentiment in the non-ferrous sector is improving, with nickel being viewed as a relatively undervalued metal, leading to strong potential for price recovery [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Outlook - If Indonesia's nickel mining approval quota drops to 250 million tons, combined with imports from the Philippines and a projected consumption of 340 to 350 million tons, there will be a significant supply gap in local smelting materials [2] - Despite the tightening supply, the overall nickel market remains weak, with an expected surplus of approximately 190,900 tons in 2026, similar to 2025 levels, indicating limited demand growth [2] - Current high inventory levels, with LME nickel stocks exceeding 250,000 tons, suggest that the nickel market is still in a state of oversupply, despite some positive expectations [2] Group 3: Macro Factors and Market Sentiment - A moderately loose monetary policy is contributing to the upward pressure on non-ferrous metal prices, including nickel, with increased market liquidity expected to amplify price volatility [3] - The short-term market trajectory will depend on the interplay between Indonesia's mining policies and the existing oversupply and high inventory levels, while long-term focus should be on the implementation of Indonesia's mining approval policies [3]

2026年1月6日，沪毅合约大幅上涨。夜盘封涨停板8%至147720元吨。同时伦锦也大幅冲高，盘中一度涨超10%、엔三年以来最大涨幅。银价大幅上行主要受到市场对于印尼端政策收紧 预期支撑。 整加有色板块集体冲高带动情绪大幅上扬，银作为有色板块中估值税对较低的品种变现较强向上弹性，同时面态电池"业化有所提速。 进一步带动银远期需求向好预期增强。印尼瑞 政策最新动态来看，SMM1月5日讯、印尼将通过 RKAB 诚控 2026 年矿产配额、旨在实现供应与下游需求同步——印尼ESDMI明确表示、2026 年度工作计划和预算（RKAB）将作为战略工具。 度矿产产量与国内工业需求同步、特别是将镜产量目标设定在 2.9 亿吨左右以匹配治泵厂节能。尽管印尼银矿商协会（APN）担心产量可能降至 2.5 亿吨。但政府表示具体数据仍在整合中、旨 在确保印尼下游产业在不严重依赖进口的情况下保持盈利。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应端。国内电锯12月产量环比再度回升，同时印尼12月MHP、冰辣和滚软产量整体维持高位、整体银供给端压力仍存。需求端进入传统消费淡季，不锈钢井产在利润修复下 环比有所增长、但电镀和合金端预计将有所下滑。整体基本 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced a collective adjustment, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.94% to 26,458.95 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.49% to 5,738.52 points, and the National Enterprises Index down by 1.14% to 9,138.75 points, ending a three-day upward trend [1] - Market sentiment is overly pessimistic, as indicated by a low turnover rate of 0.21% for the Hang Seng Index and a volatility index of 18.98, both at low percentiles for the year [1] Sector Performance Pharmaceuticals - Pharmaceutical stocks showed strong performance, particularly CRO and CDMO related stocks, with notable gains: Kelaiying up 8.92%, Tigermed up 8.88%, and WuXi Biologics up 5.92% [3][4] - The CRO and CDMO sectors are experiencing positive changes driven by both domestic and international demand, with an improving investment environment expected as overseas interest rate cuts begin in Q4 2024 [5] Metals - The metals sector, particularly nickel-related stocks, saw significant gains, with Lihua Resources up 4.92%, Rusal up 4.91%, and Jinke Permanent Magnet up 3.65% [6][7] - The price movements are influenced by Indonesia's announced reduction in nickel production, cutting its 2026 output target from 379 million tons in 2025 to 250 million tons, a decrease of 34% [6] Coal - Coal stocks also performed well, with Shougang Resources up 5.98%, China Qinfa up 5.92%, and Yanzhou Coal up 5.86% [9][10] - The coal industry is seeing an optimization in demand structure, with a projected annual electricity demand growth of about 5% over the next five years, supported by new manufacturing and digital computing needs [11] Automotive - Automotive stocks faced downward pressure, with BYD down 3.93%, NIO down 3.34%, and Xpeng down 2.19% [12][13] - Concerns stem from policy changes and weak demand, with predictions of a 7% decline in China's automotive market sales in 2026, marking the first annual negative growth since 2020 [12] Technology - Technology and internet stocks also underperformed, with Tencent Music down 5.50%, Alibaba down 3.25%, and Bilibili down 1.59% [15] - New regulatory measures aimed at strengthening oversight in the live-streaming e-commerce sector are impacting market sentiment [15] Individual Stock Movements - Nanhua Futures saw a rise of 5.07% as it is set to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on January 19 [16] - ASMPT increased by 6.16%, driven by expectations of accelerated growth in the semiconductor industry due to a storage supercycle, with global storage market growth projected at 39.4% in 2026 [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The nickel and stainless steel markets showed strong performance on January 6, 2026. Although the fundamentals still indicate high inventory and oversupply, with frequent favorable policies from Indonesia and the metals being in a long - term bottom - shock period, they are likely to attract the attention of profit - seeking funds from the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, and are expected to remain strong [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 6, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 134,100 yuan/ton and closed at 139,800 yuan/ton, up 4.13% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 738,334 (+371,441) lots, and the open interest was 131,481 (-3,248) lots. The overnight LME nickel rose 3.16% to $17,290/ton. The supply contraction expectation was the core driving force for price increase, and the strengthening of the outer market and the overall recovery of the non - ferrous sector provided a good external environment [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The overall nickel ore resources in the market are limited, and the price remains stable. The Benguet mine in the Philippines is tendering for 1.25 nickel ore, and the mine maintains a bullish attitude. In January 2026 (Phase I), the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia increased by $0.05 - 0.08/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 147,700 yuan/ton, up 5,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 1,350 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 200 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 39,388 (+964) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,546 (+192) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The fundamentals still show high inventory and oversupply, but with frequent favorable policies from Indonesia and the metal being in a long - term bottom - shock period, it is expected to remain strong. - Unilateral: Mainly use range - bound operations; no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 6, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 13,395 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 137,101 (+51,971) lots, and the open interest was 63,161 (-4,171) lots. Driven by the strong performance of Shanghai nickel, it broke through the upper limit of the previous shock range, showing a cost - driven upward trend. Although the increase was less than that of Shanghai nickel, the trend was stable, with good volume - price coordination and improved technical patterns [3]. - **Spot**: The continuous strengthening of the futures market boosted market confidence, resulting in good market transactions and higher spot quotes. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,300 (+50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,300 (+50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 50 - 250 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan/nickel point to 935.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, stainless steel is expected to continue the shock - upward trend, and investors can consider adding positions on dips. In the medium - to - long term, beware of the risk of a high - level correction. Pay attention to the news from the ore end and the downstream inventory situation. - Unilateral: Neutral; no suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源及有色组 昨日沪镍盘面大幅上涨，主力合约2602合约开于134100元/吨，日盘开盘后迅速上行，最高触及139960 元/吨，险些破开14万整数关口，最终收于139800元/吨，涨幅4.13%。持仓量13.1万手，日增仓-2.41%， 成交量73.83万手，较前一交易日增长101%。 近期沪镍上涨主要是印尼镍矿供应收缩预期、海外矿企停产消息、资金面与外盘联动共同推动，短期情 绪主导明显。印尼2026年RKAB产量目标大幅下调的影响犹在，而美国对委内瑞拉军事行动加剧国际局 势紧张，强化基本金属供应端避险情绪，贵金属、有色板块集体大涨，成为镍价上涨的额外推手。此 外，股市与期货形成联动，今日紫金矿业、洛阳钼业等有色龙头股飙升，板块走强进一步放大镍价看涨 情绪。 但需注意，目前全球精炼镍库存仍处于高位，SHFE仓单与LME库存均有增加，镍市基本面整体仍呈现 供应过剩状态，此次上涨更多是政策预期、板块带动与资金情绪博弈的结果，并非供需结构实质改善， 后续需警惕政策落地不及预期带来的回调风险。 风险提示：关注印尼政策实际落地情况，下游消费不及预期，库存持续增长。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许 ...