Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for rapeseed meal experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 2617.00 yuan, with a current price of 2682.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.94% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Chaos Tiancheng Futures suggests that short-term drivers are limited, and rapeseed meal may maintain a range-bound operation due to a relatively sufficient supply and a balanced demand-supply situation [2] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that rapeseed meal prices will continue to experience a bearish trend in the short term, with stable import rhythms of raw materials and no significant positive news to support prices [3] - Zhonghui Futures notes that multiple factors are at play, with global rapeseed production recovering year-on-year, but there are risks of yield reductions for new crops. The domestic market shows a mixed inventory situation, with high levels of commercial stocks compared to last year [4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand from aquaculture provides some support for rapeseed meal prices, while limited arrivals of rapeseed at ports contribute to a tightening supply expectation [2] - The import of rapeseed from August to October is expected to be significantly lower year-on-year, compounded by a 100% import tariff on rapeseed meal, which supports prices despite the pressure from improved import profits [4] - The current market shows a significant substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal, indicating competitive dynamics in the feed market [4] Group 3: Future Considerations - Market participants should pay attention to changes in trade policies between China and Canada, as well as weather conditions affecting rapeseed planting, which could impact future prices [3][4] - The focus should also be on the adjustments in rapeseed data from the upcoming USDA report, which may influence market sentiment [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the bean meal market, the new - season US soybeans are growing well with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, but there are concerns about the policy situation. In China, although the soybean supply is sufficient and the bean meal inventory is rising, the increase in Brazilian basis and import costs support the bean meal price. The situation of new - season US soybeans and policy changes are key factors affecting the price [2] - For the corn market, the domestic market has less remaining grain compared to the same period last year, but market confidence is low. Traders are actively selling, and the upcoming harvest of North China spring corn will supplement the supply. Downstream demand is weak, and the yield of new - season corn needs continuous attention [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data - Bean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3072 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (+0.89%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2724 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton (-1.77%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: As of the week ending July 31, Canada's rapeseed exports were 30,000 tons (60,000 tons the previous week). The total rapeseed exports in the 2024/25 season were 9.519 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.8% [1] Group 4: Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2262 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2642 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market news: As of August 6, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest was 4.439 million tons, with a harvest progress of 89.3% and an average yield of 7.23 tons per hectare [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [7] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [8] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating with a bearish bias [9] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating with a bullish bias [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a bearish bias in the long - term; short - term view is to sell on rebounds [15] - **Pulp**: Oscillating widely [16] - **Logs**: Oscillating, with an operating range of 800 - 850 [18] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products. For oils and fats, the MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise. Protein meal shows an internal - strong, external - weak, near - weak, far - strong pattern. Corn and starch markets continue to oscillate weakly. Hog supply and demand remain loose, with prices oscillating narrowly. Natural rubber prices rise due to strong raw material support, and synthetic rubber prices go up due to tight raw materials. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, while sugar prices are under pressure. Pulp presents opportunities for low - buying in the far - month contracts, and log prices oscillate with potential low - buying opportunities [7][8][9][11][12][14][15][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: The MPOB report is bullish, and palm oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday [7] - **Industry Information**: In July, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.1%; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.07% [7] - **Logic**: The market awaited MPOB and USDA monthly reports. Under the influence of the bullish MPOB report, domestic palm oil led the rise. Macro - environment factors include the focus on US monetary and tariff policies, the decline of the US dollar and crude oil prices. From the industrial side, US soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and domestic soybean imports may decline seasonally. Malaysian palm oil production in July was slightly lower than expected, exports were higher, and inventory was lower. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still high [7][2] - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the upper technical resistance of rapeseed oil [7][3] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment disturbs, and the price fluctuation intensifies [8] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes for US Gulf soybeans, US West soybeans, and South American soybeans changed week - on - week and year - on - year. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing also changed week - on - week and year - on - year [8] - **Logic**: Internationally, the expectation of a good US soybean harvest is strong. Domestically, in the short term, inventory pressure and expected Argentine soybean meal arrivals restrict the rise of spot prices. In the long term, there may be a supply gap in the fourth quarter, and the cost supports the far - month contracts [8] - **Outlook**: The pattern of internal strength, external weakness, near - term weakness, and long - term strength continues. Spot and basis may adjust, but prices will stabilize and rise. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 and add positions on dips. Buy options to bet on volatility [8] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The market continues to oscillate weakly [9] - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2300 yuan/ton, the domestic average corn price is 2384 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2255 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53% [9] - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are stable with a slight decline. On the supply side, inventory has been digested, and the arrival of grain at deep - processing enterprises has decreased. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grain is low. Policy - wise, the import corn transaction rate has declined. The new - season corn production is normal [9][10] - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking. After the new - crop is on the market, supply pressure will be released, and prices will decline [10] 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Supply and demand remain loose, and prices oscillate narrowly [11] - **Industry Information**: On August 11, the price of Henan live hogs (external ternary) was 13.66 yuan/kg, with no change; the closing price of the hog futures active contract was 14,140 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28% [11] - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August will increase. In the medium term, the number of live hogs for slaughter is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. Demand shows narrow fluctuations, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing [11] - **Outlook**: The hog market presents a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Spot prices face pressure, and if capacity reduction policies are implemented, hog prices may turn strong in 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Strong raw material support drives rubber prices to oscillate upwards [12] - **Industry Information**: Prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market changed. From January to July 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and in July, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [12][13] - **Logic**: Yesterday's warm macro - sentiment supported rubber prices. Rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, with many speculative themes. Fundamentally, short - term ship arrivals may decrease, and demand is rigid. Supply may be delayed due to heavy rainfall expectations [13] - **Outlook**: With good macro - sentiment and short - term fundamental support, rubber prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term [13] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Tight raw materials support the upward movement of the market [14] - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and domestic butadiene changed [14] - **Logic**: The BR market rose rapidly on Friday night. It was driven by sentiment - based funds from natural rubber and supported by the short - term tightness of butadiene, its raw material. Butadiene supply did not increase as expected, and downstream demand was good [14] - **Outlook**: In the short term, butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly, and the market may oscillate with a bullish bias [14] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in demand [14] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts in the 2024/2025 season was 8172. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton contracts 09 and 01 changed [14] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, global cotton supply is expected to be loose. Demand is weak, and inventory is low. Cotton prices are supported by low inventory, and if downstream orders increase in August, it may be beneficial [14] - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias before new cotton is on the market [14] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices are under pressure and weakening [15] - **Industry Information**: As of August 11, the closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract was 5573 yuan/ton, with no change [15] - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. In the short term, supply pressure will increase seasonally. Attention should be paid to the external market, as some institutions have lowered their forecasts for Brazilian sugar production [15] - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices are expected to decline due to the expected supply surplus. In the short term, it is recommended to sell on rebounds, with the contract expected to operate in the range of 5600 - 5900 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Negative factors have been priced in for a long time. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities in far - month contracts [16] - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong changed [16] - **Logic**: Futures prices rose yesterday, but the spot market was still weak. Supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, and demand is weak. Overseas markets are also weak. However, the price is at a low level, and negative factors have been fully priced in [16] - **Outlook**: The pulp futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main 11 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5500. For a single - side strategy, pay attention to low - buying opportunities when the 01 contract drops to around 5200 - 5250 [16] 3.10 Logs - **View**: The market oscillates. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities within the range [18] - **Industry Information**: No new incremental information was provided, and the market returned to fundamental trading [18] - **Logic**: The market oscillated yesterday. The fundamental situation has marginally improved, with an increase in valuation, a reduction in hedging pressure, and a decline in port arrivals. However, there are also negative factors such as low acceptance of price increases by downstream and potential pressure from undigested warehouse receipts [18] - **Outlook**: The market has multiple factors at play. The cost has increased, and supply pressure has eased. It is recommended to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a significant increase in agricultural futures, with all major contracts closing higher on August 11, indicating a bullish trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] Group 1: Sugar Market - Raw sugar futures rose by 1.78%, closing at 16.54 cents per pound, reflecting a positive movement in the sugar market [1] Group 2: Cotton Market - Cotton futures increased by 0.36%, ending at 66.84 cents per pound, suggesting a stable demand in the cotton sector [1] Group 3: Cocoa Market - Cocoa futures experienced a notable rise of 2.63%, closing at $8,750.00 per ton, indicating strong market performance for cocoa [1] Group 4: Coffee Market - Coffee futures surged by 3.55%, closing at 313.20 cents per pound, highlighting a robust demand for coffee [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts close higher on August 11, with soybean futures rising by 2.30% to 1010.25 cents per bushel, corn futures increasing by 0.55% to 407.75 cents per bushel, and wheat futures remaining flat at 514.50 cents per bushel [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures experienced a significant increase, reflecting a rise of 2.30% [1] - Corn futures also saw a modest gain, with an increase of 0.55% [1] - Wheat futures remained unchanged, indicating stability in that market segment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows diverse trends. Palm oil is expected to be strong due to positive supply - demand reports and strong exports. Eggs are under pressure from high supply. Pork prices are affected by supply - demand imbalance. Red dates are rising on production reduction expectations and holiday stocking. Other products like soybean oil, sugar, corn, etc. also have their own influencing factors and price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Palm oil is strongly supported by positive monthly supply - demand reports from Malaysia and strong early - August exports, with a bullish outlook [1]. - Eggs have dropped significantly because of high laying - hen inventory, abundant supply, and the impact of cold - stored eggs on the market [1]. - Red dates continue to rise due to expected production reduction in the new season and the start of the Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period [1]. - Pork prices have fallen after a rise because of accelerated supply from farmers and insufficient consumer demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2509 contract has reached a new high this year. Malaysia's July palm oil production increased 7.09% to 181 million tons, exports rose 3.82% to 131 million tons, and inventory increased 4.02% to 211 million tons. August 1 - 10 exports increased 23.3% and 24% compared to the previous period. The market expects increased demand from India before the October Diwali [2]. - Technically, the contract is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8940 and resistance at 9250 [4]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2510 contract has fallen sharply. In July, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.292 billion, a 1.73% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year increase. Cold - stored eggs are impacting the market [5]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 3160 and resistance at 3254 [5]. 3.2.3 Pork - The main 2511 contract first rose and then fell. Supply pressure remains high, with low demand in summer, increased fattening costs, and some pig diseases. Demand is limited, especially in the southern regions [7]. - Technically, the upward trend remains. The strategy is to hold a long position, with support at 14060 and resistance at 14325 [7]. 3.2.4 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract has continued to rise. New - season production is expected to be 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease. The Mid - Autumn and National Day stocking period has started [9]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 11400 and resistance at 11900 [9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract has continued to rise, driven by the strength of palm oil. Uncertain US soybean purchases, soybean oil exports, and expected inventory reduction during the autumn and holidays support the price [11]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to hold a light long position, with support at 8288 and resistance at 8466 [11]. 3.2.6 Sugar - The main 2509 contract has continued to decline. Imported sugar is expected to increase, and domestic sugar de - stocking may slow down. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply [13]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a light short position, with support at 5550 and resistance at 5599 [13]. 3.2.7 Corn - The main 2509 contract is in a low - level oscillation. Continuous auctions of imported corn, wheat substitution, and low demand from downstream enterprises are pressuring the price. New - season corn has a good harvest outlook [15]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold a short position, with support at 2245 and resistance at 2268 [15]. 3.2.8 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract has oscillated downward. Trump's call for China to buy more US soybeans may change the import situation. In July, domestic oil mills had a high operating rate, increasing soybean meal output and inventory [19]. - Technically, it is weak. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3034 and resistance at 3107 [19]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract has oscillated upward. Xinjiang cotton has a good growth outlook, but current commercial inventory is low, and there are expectations of supply shortage before new - cotton listing. The textile industry is in a low season [20]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and open light long positions, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [22]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main 2510 contract has continued to rise. As of August 6, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 533,900 tons and decreasing. New - season apple listing is delayed due to weather [23]. - Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 8050 and resistance at 8200 [23].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products showed a mostly positive trend, with apple futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 1.91%, reaching a high of 8192.00 yuan/ton [1] - The main contract for apples opened at 8100.00 yuan/ton and fluctuated between a low of 8062.00 yuan and a high of 8192.00 yuan, indicating a strong performance in the market [1] - Southwest Futures noted that the main contract represents the new season's purchase price, with a slight increase in national production, contradicting previous reduction expectations [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Futures highlighted that the supply of early-ripening apples has decreased in recent years, leading to a significant price differentiation in the market, with high-quality apples commanding higher prices [2] - The new season's apple bagging quantity is slightly lower than the previous season, and the purchase prices for early-ripening apples in the northwest region are higher than last year, providing some support for late-ripening varieties [2] - The market is advised to consider buying on dips in the short term, focusing on the performance of the new season's apple production [2]

Report Investment Ratings - **Beans and Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Large - range oscillation [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Jujube**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - **Beans and Meal**: Amid the interplay of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs, it shows a large - range oscillation. This week, there was inventory reduction, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans decreased month - on - month, which is bullish. However, there is a risk of an upward adjustment in the US soybean yield in the August USDA report, so be cautious about chasing long positions. Focus on the next USDA monthly supply - demand report [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Under the influence of multiple long and short factors, it presents a large - range market. Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a yield reduction in Canada. The import of rapeseed from August to October is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price. But the improvement in Canadian rapeseed import profit exerts downward pressure. Pay attention to the planting weather, yield estimates, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian developments [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the consumption outlook of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. However, there may be inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July, which could suppress short - term prices. Consider the support of biodiesel policies and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Also, pay attention to domestic palm oil purchases in the past three months and beware of the risk of short - term squeeze [1][10]. - **Cotton**: The moisture condition in the main cotton - producing areas of the US continues to deteriorate slightly, and the export improvement expectation is limited. The ICE market is expected to move in a narrow range. In China, the guaranteed output of new cotton has increased, and the high - temperature risk has been lifted, but the risk of rainy days in the future needs attention. The commercial inventory is still being depleted rapidly, and there is no quota issuance at the import end, providing short - term support. The downstream may gradually enter the stocking period, and there is an expected marginal improvement in the spinning mill's operating rate and future orders. Before the new cotton is launched, the downside space is limited, and it is advisable to establish long positions on dips [1][14]. - **Jujube**: There are still significant differences in the market regarding the reduction range, and the possibility of an over - expected reduction is still in doubt, with speculation risks remaining. High - inventory pressure restricts the rebound height before the final output is determined. It is recommended to be cautious and try long positions [1][17]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous second - fattening sales and the acceleration of short - term sales rhythm have pushed down the price of live pigs. However, the recovery of the price difference between standard and fat pigs still drives some second - fattening speculation, so the near - term contracts are weak but have certain support. The medium - and long - term production capacity remains at a high level, and the gradual reduction of production capacity by leading enterprises may help the far - term contracts rise. The overall situation is "weak reality, strong expectation". Continue to pay attention to the reverse - spread strategy and the opportunity to establish long positions on dips for far - term contracts [1][20]. Summary by Directory Beans and Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.237 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 152,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 100,000 tons, and the bean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main bean meal contract closed at 3,045 yuan/ton, up 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,015.43 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons [7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main rapeseed meal contract closed at 2,773 yuan/ton, up 1.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,725.26 yuan/ton, up 1.07% [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 582,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,300 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 3,400 tons [9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main palm oil contract closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,108 yuan/ton, up 1.26% [8]. Cotton - **Inventory Data**: The cotton commercial inventory dropped to 2.0067 million tons, 210,000 tons lower than the same period. The inventory depletion has not significantly slowed down [13]. - **Price Data**: The main Zhengzhou cotton contract CF2509 decreased by 0.22% to 13,640 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.10% to 15,193 yuan/ton [11][12]. Jujube - **Inventory Data**: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9,784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, and 4,379 tons higher than the same period [16]. - **Price Data**: The main jujube contract CJ2601 increased by 3.59% to 11,540 yuan/ton [16]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Output Data**: In August, the planned output of Steel Union sample enterprises was 13.2257 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 5.26%. The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 37.6332 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%, and the output was 10.9168 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 3.01% [18][19]. - **Price Data**: The main live - pig contract Lh2511 increased by 0.96% to 14,180 yuan/ton, and the domestic live - pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [18][19].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 策略参考 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于本周美国农业部报告预期偏空，短期美豆在缺乏天气题材和出口低迷的拖累下，期价持续 承压于 1000 美分整数关口。国内豆类市场内强外弱格局持续，交易围绕近弱远强的供应预期和成本推动 展开，远期大豆成本抬升构成豆粕价格的重要支撑，短期豆粕期价有望保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core View of the Report - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts in autumn, winter, and spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which need to be prevented in advance. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, attention should be continuously paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Summary According to Data 1. Price and Spread - **Ex - market Quotes**: The prices of US sugar and US cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased by 0.34%, in Kunming by 0.09%, the cotton index 328 by 0.09%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3]. - **Price Spreads**: All price spreads and basis for sugar and cotton remained unchanged from August 9th to 10th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 2. Import and Profit - **Import Prices**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.32% [3]. - **Profit Space**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged from August 7th to 8th, 2025, with a 0.00% increase or decrease [3]. 3. Option and Warehouse Receipt - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF509C13600, and CF509P13600 are 0.0874, 0.0855, 0.0923, and 0.0923 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF509 are 5.93 and 7.78 respectively [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 7th to 8th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.92% [3]. Company Introduction - **General Information**: CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is one of the large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures companies in China [8]. - **Exchange Membership**: It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange, an observer of the China Securities Association, and an observer member of the Asset Management Association of China [8].