商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-07-02 | 2025-07-03 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 15.56 | 16.37 | 5.21% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 68.64 | 68.43 | -0.31% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-07-02 | 2025-07-03 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6070.0 | 6060.0 | -0.16% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5895.0 | 5880.0 | -0.25% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.26% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 15200.0 | 15150.0 | -0. ...

2025年07月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美豆油情绪偏好，国际油脂上涨 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆小幅收涨，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 8 | | 棉花：期价受市场乐观情绪支撑 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：旺季将至，淘汰难增 | 11 | | 生猪：短期情绪偏强 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 4 日 棕榈油：美豆油情绪偏好，国际油脂上涨 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Overnight, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate. The spot price of soybeans is stable, and the futures price fluctuates [1]. - On July 3, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly higher due to short - covering and position adjustment before the US Independence Day long - weekend. However, the gains were limited by good US weather and sufficient global supply [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybean 2509 closed at 4141 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 yuan (+0.10%), and 4153 yuan/ton at night, up 5 yuan (+0.12%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2958 yuan/ton during the day session, up 11 yuan (+0.37%), and 2971 yuan/ton at night, up 11 yuan (+0.37%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1048.25 cents/bushel, up 0.5 cents (+0.05%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 292.4 dollars/short - ton, up 1.7 dollars (+0.58%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal is 2870 - 2900 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 or +20 yuan compared to the previous day. The spot basis is M2509 - 50/-30, remaining unchanged [1]. - In East China, the price is 2850 - 2900 yuan/ton, up 10 or 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In South China, the price is 2860 - 2970 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Main Industry Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 16.2 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 44.85 million tons per day two trading days ago [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was 64.21 million tons per week on the previous trading day, compared with 47.12 million tons per week two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 3, 2025, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly due to short - covering and position adjustment before the US Independence Day long - weekend. But the gains were limited by good US weather and sufficient global supply. Trump was to speak in Iowa, and market rumors about his speech led to a sharp rise in soybean prices on Wednesday. The overall weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be good. The US Midwest will have mild weather and scattered showers in the next two weeks, which is beneficial for crop growth. The US Department of Agriculture reported that private exporters sold 22.6 million tons of US soybeans to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2024/25 season [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybeans is 0, only referring to the price fluctuation of the main contract in the day session on the report day [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, domestic soybean meal is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation, and the spot price remains under pressure. The supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans is expected to remain tight. Under the current China - US tariff policy, domestic soybean meal has a de - stocking expectation. It is recommended to adopt a long - at - low strategy for the far - month M01 contract, while also paying attention to weather and policy changes [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on July 2nd, in Dalian and Rizhao it was - 4 to - 84 with a change of - 3; in Tianjin it was - 24 with a change of 17; in Zhangjiagang it was - 104 with a change of 17; in Dongguan it was - 104; in Zhanjiang it was - 94 with a change of 17; in Fangcheng it was - 94 with a change of 17. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 108 with a change of - 12. The M9 - 1 spread was - 43 [6] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 370 with a change of 10, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 366 with a change of - 9 [7] b. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1179, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 95.00 cents per bushel. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 232 yuan per ton with no change [7] c. Inventory Data - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to be stocked. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history, while soybean meal inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period in history, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises continues to increase [7][8] d. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has declined to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth [7] - Demand: Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November; the inventory of poultry remains high, the cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is replacing corn, reducing the use of protein [7] e. Trading Suggestion - It is recommended to adopt a long - at - low strategy for the far - month M01 contract, while also paying attention to weather and policy changes [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The colored metals sector should be vigilant against short - term trend reversals. Different varieties in the black, agricultural products, and energy - chemical sectors require differentiated risk management strategies, including short - term operations, band trading, and combining with fundamentals [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Colored Metals Sector - **1H25 Colored Metals Sector Technical Rating Review** - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals sector in 1H25 was weak, with significant differentiation among varieties. Traditional industrial metals were relatively resistant to decline, while new energy materials declined sharply. For example, copper and aluminum prices rose, while zinc, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon prices fell [13]. - The technical indicator ratings of copper and aluminum were generally consistent, but the correlation between the rating and actual yield was different. The technical indicators of zinc and lead had a high correlation with yields. For new energy metals, the effectiveness of technical indicator ratings was limited [15][23]. - **Detailed Review of Key Colored Metals Variety - Copper** - **Volume and Open Interest**: The price and volume changes of the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract in the first half of the year can be divided into five trends. Currently, the volume and open interest have rebounded slightly, but the price increase is limited, and it is necessary to wait for further volume signals [39][40][43]. - **MACD**: There were 5 golden cross signals and 3 dead cross signals in the first half of the year. The short - term MACD formed a dead cross signal, and there is a risk of short - term correction. Medium - and long - term operations need to consider the long - term bullish fundamentals [45][46]. - **Oscillating Indicators**: The overall signal effectiveness of oscillating indicators was insufficient. The long - cycle KDJ was more effective in observing large - scale corrections and sudden rebounds, while the CCI had a high failure rate [49][52]. - **Support and Resistance Levels**: The pivot point of Shanghai copper rose steadily, showing a bullish market. However, the resistance levels were "solidified", and the support levels were "moving up". The price was compressed in a box, and the adjustment of support and resistance levels in the third quarter needs to wait for short - term price and volume breakthroughs [53][55]. - **Colored Metals Sector Risk Management Guidelines** - Traditional non - ferrous metals and new energy metals can use technical indicator ratings to capture price risks. For example, for Shanghai aluminum, set stop - loss levels and use put options to hedge against correction risks; for Shanghai zinc, use call options instead of some long positions [61][62]. - Shanghai copper is in a stage of shock consolidation. There is a risk of short - term correction, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of downward break - through and false breakthrough. Long - term upward trends need to be confirmed by volume [63][65]. 3.2 Black Metals Sector - **1H25 Black Metals Sector Technical Rating Review** - In the first half of 2025, black metal futures all declined, with coking coal and coke leading the decline. The volatility of coking coal, coke, and iron ore was high, while that of rebar and hot - rolled coil was relatively low [64]. - The pivot point distribution of each variety showed obvious differentiation, with "raw materials > finished products > alloys" in terms of volatility gradient. Coking coal and coke had a high risk of breaking through S2 and R2, iron ore had a medium risk of breaking through S3, and manganese silicon had a high risk of breaking through R3 [89]. - **Detailed Review of Key Black Metals Variety - Rebar** - **Volume and Open Interest**: The price of the rebar main - continuous contract in 1H25 can be divided into five stages. Currently, the decline has slowed down, but the downward pressure has not been eliminated. The market is in a weak balance state, and it is necessary to be vigilant against break - through risks [92][93][94]. - **Technical Patterns**: The effectiveness of the dead cross signal of MACD was stronger than that of the golden cross signal. Oscillating indicators did not have significant long - or short - term guidance, and it was necessary to be cautious about rebounds in the third quarter [96][98]. - **Support and Resistance Levels**: The pivot point moved down step by step in 1H25, and the market was dominated by bears. The current price is in a box - shaped shock between S2 and R2. The adjustment of support and resistance levels in the third quarter needs to wait for short - term price and volume breakthroughs [102]. - **Black Metals Sector Risk Management Guidelines** - The upstream coking coal and coke can use short - term box operations based on the new weekly Fibonacci pivot, and long - term holding needs to consider fundamental fluctuations. Iron ore can appropriately loosen the box operation to S3 and R3. Rebar is in a weak shock pattern, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of short - term rebound and false breakthrough [113][115]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **1H25 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Rating Review** - Palm oil and soybean meal had high volatility, suitable for short - term active operations; pork and soybean oil had moderate volatility, suitable for medium - term trading; sugar, corn, and cotton had low volatility, suitable for trading strategies that follow the fundamentals [116]. - The overall fit between the market fluctuations and technical indicator ratings in the agricultural products sector was less than 40%, but the yield performance was relatively coordinated in long - and short - term ratings. High - volatility varieties need to use multi - dimensional technical indicators for refined market ratings [116]. - **Agricultural Products Sector Fibonacci Pivot Analysis** - Different varieties had different levels of activity. High - volatility varieties such as soybeans, palm oil, eggs, and red dates were suitable for short - term operations; medium - volatility varieties such as apples, corn starch, soybean meal, and peanuts were suitable for band trading; low - volatility varieties such as japonica rice and cotton were suitable for combining with fundamentals and waiting for key technical level breakthroughs [139]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Sector - The energy - chemical sector mainly adopts differentiated risk management. High - volatility varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and styrene are suitable for short - term operations; medium - volatility varieties such as LPG and asphalt are suitable for band trading; low - volatility varieties such as PVC and polypropylene are suitable for medium - term operations combined with fundamentals. PTA should be vigilant against overbought corrections [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Bullish [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating [9][10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating Bullish [11][12][13] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [17] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [18][20] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [21] - **Pulp**: Oscillating Bearish [22] - **Logs**: Oscillating Bearish [23][24] 2. Core Views of the Report - The improvement in the macro - level drives the rebound of agricultural products. Different agricultural products show various trends due to factors such as policy, supply - demand, and macro - environment [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs (1)行情观点 - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy boosts demand expectations, and oils and fats may continue to oscillate upward. The US Senate's passing of the fiscal spending bill including the 45Z tax credit and Brazil's plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio are positive factors. However, factors like OPEC +'s August production policy, trade relations, and crude oil prices need attention [8]. - **Protein Meal**: It will oscillate within a range, and long positions can be held. Internationally, factors such as the US Senate's tax bill, US soybean area, and Argentine soybean production are intertwined. Domestically, there is a supply - pressure on the short - term price, but long - term cost support exists [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: After the import auction is finalized, the futures price drops in advance. The supply pressure from policy - grain auctions and the substitution of wheat for feed are negative factors, while the potential production - demand gap is a positive factor [9][10]. - **Hogs**: The strengthening of the macro - sentiment drives up both the spot and futures prices. In the short term, there is a price rebound, but in the long term, there is supply - suppression risk [11][12][13]. - **Natural Rubber**: The strong rise of commodities drives the rubber price to run strongly. Currently, the supply has an incremental expectation, and the demand has a decreasing expectation, but it is difficult for a sharp decline to occur in the third quarter [14][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price oscillates within a narrow range. The market is mainly affected by the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities, and the end - user's raw material procurement attitude is negative [17]. - **Cotton**: The low - inventory structure supports the cotton price. Although there is an expected increase in new - cotton production and weak demand in the off - season, the current low inventory makes the price relatively resistant to decline [18][20]. - **Sugar**: There is insufficient power for continuous strengthening. Both domestic and international markets face potential supply - increase pressure, and there is a limit to the price rebound [21]. - **Pulp**: The warm trading atmosphere in the financial market drives the pulp price. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate downward [22]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak, and the market oscillates. The market is in the off - season, and the mid - term is affected by weak fundamentals [23][24]. (2)品种数据监测 - The report only lists the names of various product categories such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, etc., without specific data monitoring content provided.

农产品日报 | 2025-07-03 现货压力较大，豆粕维持弱势 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2944元/吨，较前日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.57%；菜粕2509合约2578元/吨，较前 日变动-8元/吨，幅度-0.31%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2910元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M09-34， 较前日变动+7；江苏地区豆粕现货2800元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差M09-144，较前日变动-13；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2800元/吨，较前日变动跌-30元/吨，现货基差M09-144，较前日变动-13。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2580元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差RM09+2，较前日变动-2。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部月度压榨报告显示，5月份美国大豆压榨量2.037亿蒲，较4月的2.024亿蒲增长0.65%， 较去年同期的1.916亿蒲增长6.30%。2024/25年度迄今累计压榨量达18.44亿蒲，高于去年同期的17.43亿蒲。StoneX 报告显示，巴西2024/25年度大豆产量估计为1.69亿吨，较早先预估上调50万吨，预计巴西 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [1] - Pig: Range [3] - Egg: Low long [3] Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the import corn auction continues, and the spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend. In the medium term, the supply pattern is expected to gradually tighten, and the spot price will still run strongly. In the long term, policy grain source release and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space. The pricing logic is import substitution + planting cost, and policy orientation should be focused on [1]. - Pig: In the short term, the price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs expands, and the short - term supply decreases, so the pig price fluctuates strongly. In the medium term, there is an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year. In the long term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3]. - Egg: In the short term, the egg supply is stable, and the egg price is weakly stable. In the medium term, the supply pressure remains high, but there may be a phased rebound in August - September, and the rebound high depends on the chicken culling rhythm [3]. Summary by Related Items Corn Market Review - Overnight, the corn futures fluctuated and consolidated. As of the night - session close, the 2509 contract fell 0.25% to 2363 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On July 2, the prices of north - south ports and deep - processing enterprises were stable. The corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 to 209,951 hands. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was - 20 yuan/ton. On July 4, 305,964 tons of imported genetically - modified corn will be auctioned. On July 2, 38,000 tons of the planned 40,000 - ton corn auction were sold [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: Import corn auctions continue, and the spot market is stable with a slight upward trend. Medium - term: The supply pattern is expected to tighten. Long - term: Policy grain source release and wheat substitution may limit the upward price space [1]. Trading Strategy - Medium - and long - term: Maintain the range - trading idea. Short - term: Verify the upper pressure and find the lower support. The 2509 contract's 2420 pressure has been verified, and the short - term support is 2350 - 2360 [1]. Pig Market Review - The main pig futures contract rose sharply. The LH2509 contract rose 3.2% to 14,340 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 1.12% to 13,550 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On July 2, the national average pig price was 15.33 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/jin. The early - morning pig price is expected to be stable with a slight increase. In May 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million. At the end of April, the number of medium - and large - sized pigs increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. On July 2, the price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs was 0.14 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. On June 26, the average weekly slaughter weight was 125 kg, down 0.46 kg from the previous week. On July 2, the pig futures warehouse receipts decreased by 375 to 450 [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs expands, and the short - term supply decreases, so the pig price fluctuates strongly. Medium - term: There is an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year. Long - term: The pig production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Short at high levels. Medium - term: Range trading. Short - term: Strengthen to test the upper pressure. Do not blindly chase the long. The 2509 contract breaks through the first pressure of 14,000 - 14,100 and the second pressure of 14,400 - 14,600. The 2511 contract focuses on the pressure effect of 13,600 - 13,800 [3]. Egg Market Review - The egg futures fluctuated weakly. The JD2508 contract fell 0.67% to 3544 yuan/500kg, and the JD2509 contract fell 0.33% to 3678 yuan/500kg [3]. Important Information - On July 2, the egg spot price was weakly stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.6 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin. The inventory in the production and circulation links decreased. The average price of old hens was 4.73 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. In May, the number of laying hens was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in June was 1.34 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. On July 2, the egg futures warehouse receipts increased by 92 to 147 [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The egg supply is stable, and the egg price is weakly stable. Medium - term: The supply pressure remains high, but there may be a phased rebound in August - September, and the rebound high depends on the chicken culling rhythm [3]. Trading Strategy - Currently, the difference between long and short is large. It is recommended to watch more and trade less. The 08 contract runs in a wide range, with the upper pressure at 3600 - 3650 and the lower support at 3480 - 3500. The 09 contract maintains the short - term long and long - term short trading idea. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal futures price may rebound in the short - term as the market sentiment stabilizes. The rise of US soybean futures price, driven by the increase in the expected demand for US soybean crushing due to the US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill and the market's focus on the weather - related yield adjustment from July to August, has led to a rise in the cost of imported soybeans in China [6]. - The palm oil futures price shows a short - term strong and volatile trend. The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which in turn boosts the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill also boosts the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector, indirectly benefiting palm oil [8]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The US Senate's tax - cut and spending bill includes measures to restrict biofuels from North American sources, which drives up the US soybean oil futures price, increasing the expected demand for US soybean crushing and thus the cost of imported soybeans in China. After the US soybean planting area is determined, the market focuses on the yield adjustment due to weather disturbances from July to August. With the stabilization of market sentiment, the soybean meal futures price may rebound [6]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: strong; Intraday: strong and volatile; Reference view: strong and volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: The tightening supply and strong demand of Malaysian palm oil support its price, which has a positive impact on the domestic palm oil futures price. The US Senate's fiscal spending bill on July 1 boosts the US soybean oil futures price, enhancing the sentiment of the entire oil and fat sector and indirectly benefiting palm oil. The obvious return of short - term funds makes the palm oil futures price trend strongly and volatile [8].

Core Insights - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by over 1.7%, reaching a daily high and approaching the 30.70 points mark [1] - CBOT corn futures rose by more than 1.7%, hitting a daily high, while wheat futures increased by over 2.0% [1] - Soybean futures saw a rise of approximately 1.6% before retracting some gains [1] - U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo stated that the trade agreement with Vietnam is significant for American farmers [1]