Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1][5][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting May and longing September contracts for glass [1][8][9][11] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on 98,000 - 106,000; strengthening observation for aluminum; moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel; range trading for tin; bullish - biased range movement for gold, silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][13][16][18] - **Energy and chemicals**: Bullish - biased oscillation for PVC, methanol, polyolefins; low - level oscillation for caustic soda; shorting on rallies for soda ash; long - allocating on dips without chasing highs for styrene, rubber; range trading for urea, methanol [1][25][28][31] - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Bullish - biased oscillation for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; range movement for red dates [1][39][41][42] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Cautiously shorting on rallies for May contracts of live hogs, with a bearish - biased rolling strategy; shorting on rallies of near - month contracts for eggs if the culling does not accelerate; range operation for corn due to a high short - term basis; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; bullish - biased oscillation for oils, and suggesting long - allocating soybean and palm oils on dips [1][44][45][49] Core Views - The global market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors in the futures market show diverse trends and investment opportunities. Geopolitical events like the US - Israel conflict with Iran have a significant impact on the market, especially on precious metals and energy - related products. Economic data from the US and China also influence market expectations. Supply - demand imbalances in various industries drive price movements [5][14][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: The US - Iran conflict and economic data from both the US and China affect the market. With external markets rebounding and domestic economic policies in focus, stock indices are expected to be bullish - biased in the medium - long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips [5] - **Government bonds**: The bond market lacks a clear trading direction. Medium - short - term bonds are favored by institutions, while long - term bonds are mainly dominated by trading - volume players. The market is waiting for clearer guidance from important meetings, and government bonds are expected to move in a range [6] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Coal mines are resuming production, but trading is sluggish. Downstream demand is mainly for inventory digestion, and short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is oscillating. The current valuation is low, but the demand drive is weak in the short term. With inventory accumulation and the need to focus on post - festival demand recovery, range trading is suggested [9] - **Glass**: Affected by the Spring Festival, the glass market has weak demand and rising inventory. The supply of soda ash is not favorable. The market shows a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations, and shorting May and longing September contracts are recommended [11] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: After the Chinese New Year, the copper price has moved up, but inventory accumulation and weak demand limit its upward momentum. The geopolitical conflict may push up the price indirectly. In the long term, demand from new energy, power, and AI computing supports the price, and short - term range trading with a focus on 98,000 - 106,000 is advised [13][14] - **Aluminum**: The price of domestic bauxite is stable. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed. The downstream demand is gradually picking up, but inventory pressure is high. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and strengthening observation is recommended [16] - **Nickel**: The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price. However, refined nickel demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Overall, nickel prices are expected to be bullish - biased, and moderately holding long positions on dips is recommended [18] - **Tin**: The production of refined tin has decreased, and imports have increased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but the supply of tin ore is tight. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly, and range trading is suggested [19] - **Gold and silver**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the weakening of the US economy and expectations of interest - rate cuts support the prices. Both are expected to move in a bullish - biased range, and buying on dips after sufficient corrections is recommended [21][22] - **Lithium carbonate**: Supply is affected by mine production and imports, and demand is strong. With supply disturbances, the price is expected to oscillate bullishly [24] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is relatively low, supply is high, and domestic demand is weak. However, export demand is good, and there are short - term opportunities due to export tax rebates. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly in the short term, and trading within the rising - channel range is recommended [25] - **Caustic soda**: Demand is supported by alumina production, and there is potential for export improvement. Supply may be affected by maintenance. With low valuation, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [28] - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors push up the price through cost. There is inventory support, but the increase in supply may suppress the rise. It is expected to oscillate bullishly, and long - allocating on dips without chasing highs is recommended [29] - **Polyolefins**: Geopolitical conflicts support the cost. Supply is high, but downstream demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly [31] - **Rubber**: There is a game between cost support and inventory pressure. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly, and long - allocating on dips without chasing highs is recommended [32] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, but demand from industry and agriculture is also rising. The conflict in Iran may affect the international supply and drive up the price. The price is expected to be bullish in March and may face pressure later [34][35] - **Methanol**: The conflict in Iran may cause a supply shortage. Domestic supply and demand have their own characteristics, and the price is expected to oscillate bullishly [36] - **Soda ash**: Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended [38] Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed. After the festival, consumption expectations are rising, and the price is expected to oscillate bullishly [39] - **Apples**: The apple trading is stable, with some local price fluctuations. The sales in the distribution area are okay, and the price is expected to oscillate bullishly [41] - **Red dates**: The acquisition price of Xinjiang grey dates is in a certain range, and the price is expected to move in a range [42] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live hogs**: The short - term price is oscillating at the bottom due to oversupply. In the medium - long term, the supply may decrease, but the price increase is limited. A bearish - biased rolling strategy for May contracts and a cautious bullish view for July and September contracts are recommended [44] - **Eggs**: The current egg price is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Although there is potential demand support, the supply is sufficient. If the culling does not accelerate, shorting on rallies of near - month contracts is recommended [45] - **Corn**: The short - term price is oscillating due to the game between supply and demand. The medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Range operation with caution on high - price chasing is recommended [47] - **Soybean meal**: The US soybean market is affected by South American production and demand factors. The domestic supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Shorting on rallies is recommended [49] - **Oils**: Affected by international crude oil prices, oils are expected to oscillate bullishly. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and long - allocating soybean and palm oils on dips is recommended [50][54]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily - Date: March 5, 2026 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [1][2][3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoint - Due to the weakening of the February PMI and the support of risk - aversion sentiment, the bond market continued to show a relatively strong performance. The yields of most major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined. In March, treasury bond futures may first strengthen and then weaken. The weak February PMI was affected by the Spring Festival, but high - frequency economic indicators after the festival showed a rapid resumption of production. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter may continue to perform well, which will dampen market expectations of monetary easing. Trump's visit to China at the end of March may push up market risk appetite, putting pressure on the bond market. In the short term, the deterioration of the US - Iran situation has increased risk - aversion sentiment, and there may be certain expectation differences during the Two Sessions. However, concerns about inflation caused by the continuous soaring of oil prices need to be noted [8][9][11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestion - **Market Performance**: Affected by the weakening of the February PMI and risk - aversion sentiment, the bond market continued to be strong. The yields of most major - term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with the decline of the 10 - year treasury bond yield within 1bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250022 was reported at 1.788%, a decline of 0.8bp. At the beginning of the month, the inter - bank liquidity was loose, with a net withdrawal of 36.9 billion yuan through open - market reverse repurchases. The overnight DR in the inter - bank deposit market fluctuated narrowly around 1.27%, the 7 - day funding rate dropped 3.3bp to around 1.42%, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly between 1.56% and 1.58% [8][9][10] - **Conclusion**: The weak February PMI was affected by the Spring Festival. High - frequency economic indicators after the festival showed a rapid resumption of production, and overseas export demand remained strong. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season, and the economy in the first quarter may continue to perform well, dampening market expectations of monetary easing. Trump's visit to China at the end of March may push up market risk appetite, putting pressure on the bond market. In the short term, the deterioration of the US - Iran situation has increased risk - aversion sentiment, and there may be certain expectation differences during the Two Sessions. After the long - term supply pressure is digested, market sentiment may be restored. However, concerns about inflation caused by the continuous soaring of oil prices need to be noted. Overall, treasury bond futures in March may first strengthen and then weaken [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5th to 12th, with an 8 - day session. The agenda includes reviewing the government work report, the draft 14th Five - Year Plan, etc. There will be 3 press conferences, 3 "Representative Corridor" and 3 "Ministerial Corridor" activities. The spokesperson of the conference, Lou Qinjian, made statements on various issues such as the 14th Five - Year Plan, the economy, and foreign policy [13] - The State Council Information Office will hold a briefing on March 5th to interpret the "Government Work Report". The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, called on all parties to stop military operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Affected by the Spring Festival, China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points. China's S&P manufacturing PMI in February was 52.1, expected 50.2, and the previous value was 50.3; the service industry PMI was 56.7, expected 52.3, and the previous value was 52.3; the composite PMI was 55.4, and the previous value was 51.6 [14] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of treasury bond futures on March 4th, including information such as the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for multiple contracts. It also mentions aspects such as the spread between different - term and different - variety main contracts and the trend of main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The data sources of the money market mainly come from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. The report includes figures related to the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [30][32] - **Derivatives Market**: The data sources of the derivatives market are also from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. The report shows figures of the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, focus on risk defense. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may continue to outperform the weighted stocks. Geopolitical risks reduce risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline [11][13]. - For steel, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. For iron ore, short - term high - level short positions can take profits, and long - term partial short positions can be held lightly. For double - coking, the price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines, downstream demand recovery, and international crude oil price fluctuations after the Spring Festival [15][16][18]. - For various non - ferrous metals and new materials, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, zinc is recommended to maintain a bearish view, and lead is recommended to hold short positions [24][27]. - For agricultural products, different varieties also have different trends. For example, cotton is expected to enter a volatile stage, sugar is recommended to be operated with a volatile mindset, and eggs are expected to have a limited increase in price in March [34][35][36]. - For energy and chemical products, the short - term trading of crude oil is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the price of fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation after continuous daily limit increases. Different chemical products such as plastics, rubber, and methanol also have their own characteristics and trends [42][44][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5th to March 12th. The State Council Premier Li Qiang will deliver the "Government Work Report", and relevant personnel will interpret it [6]. - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer. The US will control the rhythm and intensity of the operation. NATO's interception of Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause. China will send a special envoy to the Middle East for mediation [6]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court rejected Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the US may officially adopt a 15% global tariff rate this week. The US will provide insurance for oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf [7]. - The South Korean stock market fell sharply, and the financial regulatory agency will start a 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if market fluctuations intensify [7]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [7]. - NVIDIA's CEO said that the company's $30 billion investment in OpenAI may be its last investment before the company goes public, and OpenAI is expected to start an IPO by the end of the year. The $10 billion investment in Anthropic may also be the last [8]. - Mediterranean Shipping Company will unload all goods bound for ports in the Gulf region at the nearest safe port and charge a mandatory surcharge of $800 per container. Maersk will temporarily stop accepting cargo bookings to and from the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia [8]. - US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will replace the current Fed Chairman Powell for a four - year term [8]. - The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025. The eurozone's unemployment rate in January unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and the PPI showed different changes [9]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.98% to 4082.47 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.75%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.41%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 0.69%. The market traded 2.39 trillion yuan throughout the day. The market's focus shifted to food and fertilizer sectors, and the oil and gas sector's volatility increased. The semiconductor sentiment weakened due to the sharp decline in the South Korean stock market [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks reduce risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline. The official PMI was affected by seasonality and was weak, while the Hong Kong ratingdogPMI was strong. The continuous sharp rise in crude oil prices pushed up the bond market due to market risk - aversion sentiment [13]. Black Steel - The current order - receiving situation of steel is acceptable, but the inventory is high, especially for coils, which suppresses steel prices. The real - estate sales and new construction data are weak, and infrastructure projects have not started much. The downstream consumption of coils is acceptable, and the export and steel mills' orders are good. The supply side has low - level profits, and the iron - water output has increased slightly. The cost of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal fluctuates, and the overall steel price is expected to fluctuate. The recommended strategies include selling wide - straddle options and holding, taking profits on short positions in iron ore in the short - to - medium term, and holding partial short positions in the long term [15][16]. Coal and Coke - The price of double - coking may fluctuate in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the supply of coal mines has recovered, and the demand from steel mills will increase. However, the recovery of terminal steel demand is uncertain, and there is still an expectation of price cuts for coke. The rise in international crude oil prices may support the price of double - coking [18]. Iron Alloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by off - industry forces. The current price is at a stage high, and there are negative impacts such as hedging pressure and production resumption pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions and try short positions at high prices [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is high, and some enterprises have maintenance plans. The new production capacity of leading enterprises has made progress. For glass, the upstream price has loosened, and there are both cold - repair and ignition plans on the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see at present [22]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Copper - In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the expectation of interest - rate cuts has cooled, and Kevin Warsh may promote balance - sheet reduction, which will put pressure on copper prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the long term, the global copper - mine supply is tight, which will support the copper - price center [24]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view and treat it with a volatile mindset [24]. Lead - The consumption of lead is gradually recovering, and the supply recovery is slower than the consumption end. It is recommended to hold short positions [27]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate show a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The short - term supply increases, and the demand may weaken due to the Israel - Iran war. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is valued at a relatively low level, and previous long positions can be held. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][32]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market is expected to enter a volatile stage. The global cotton output is expected to decline, and the demand remains stable. The domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage, and the actual consumption and orders of textile enterprises are the key to the market [34]. Sugar - The global sugar market has a supply surplus, but the surplus has been adjusted. The domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, and there is a replenishment demand after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to operate with a volatile mindset [35]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs may stabilize, and there is an expectation of price increase in March, but the increase space is limited. The futures contracts in the second quarter are supported by the expectation of spot - price increase, but the premium over the spot is large, and the upside pressure is large [36]. Apples - High - quality apple products may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly. The prices of high - quality products in the western region are rising, while those in the Shandong region are stable [38]. Corn - It is recommended to choose the 5 - 7 reverse spread. The domestic corn price is strong in the spot market and fluctuates in the futures market. There is a certain stage pressure, but the low inventory supports the price [39]. Red Dates - The red - date market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The consumption after the Spring Festival is in the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales areas and the mentality of purchasers [40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz is still impassable, and the domestic crude - oil price continues to rise sharply. Geopolitical factors are the main trading line in the short term. The conflict between the US and Iran has a great impact on global crude - oil supply. The oil - price premium is relatively high, and the increase range is limited if there is no extreme conflict [42]. Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focus is the impact of oil prices on fuel oil under the influence of geopolitics. After continuous daily limit increases, it is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. The supply risk has not been eliminated [44]. Plastics - The unstable situation in the Middle East may support the price of polyolefins. It is recommended to beware of the rebound risk and adopt a bullish mindset [45]. Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports, and it is recommended to be cautious in going long in the short term. Pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between RU - NR and RU - BR [46]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to go long on dips, but be cautious about the rapid decline of energy prices and high inventory. Partially take profits on the strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber [48]. Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, which may affect the supply of Iranian methanol. It is recommended to adopt a bullish - volatile mindset, but beware of the callback caused by the shutdown of downstream MTO factories [49]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda market is expected to fluctuate widely. The spot price is relatively weak, and the futures price has insufficient upward drive and relatively high valuation [50]. Asphalt - Asphalt follows the oil - price fluctuation, and the amplitude is expected to be smaller than that of crude oil. Pay attention to the replenishment demand after winter storage in March [51]. PVC - The short - term PVC may be bullish - volatile. The increase in oil prices will raise the cost of ethylene - based PVC. It is recommended to be cautious and adopt a range - volatile mindset [52][53]. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend is dominated by oil prices and market sentiment, and it is expected to continue to run strongly. Pay attention to the implementation of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the long term [54]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The supply of LPG is abundant in the future, and the price is difficult to stay high. The demand is restricted. The short - term geopolitical situation increases volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. Pulp - The market is in a multi - empty game. The high inventory pressure and the forced production cuts of overseas pulp mills are the focus. Pay attention to the port inventory and the implementation of product price increases [57]. Logs - The demand in the Rizhao area is gradually recovering, and the forward - spot price is difficult to fall under the support of the cost. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the commodity and macro - sentiment [58]. Urea - The futures market is highly emotional, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to lay out short positions when the price rises [59].

研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2026 年 3 月 5 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 在美以伊冲突爆发之后，全球资本市场均出现大幅波动，A 股在首个交易日 低开反弹后又再度回落，主要原因还是在于冲突的影响范围和持续时间超出了市 场预期。今日 A 股市场缩量下跌，上证指数跌破 4100 点，市场情绪延续弱势。沪 深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 1.14%、1.33%、0.39%、0.59%。 期货方面，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 1.30%、1.55 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment of stock index futures has improved significantly, and the short - term market is expected to bottom out. Treasury bond futures show a strengthening trend due to looser funds [18][22]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal may decline, while the sugar price is likely to oscillate at the bottom. The fluctuation of the oil and fat sector has increased, and the corn and its starch futures are in high - level oscillation [26][29][32][33]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate during the two sessions, and the trend of coking coal and coke is not obvious. Iron ore prices will oscillate due to geopolitical conflicts [56][58][61]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals such as gold and silver will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and the price of copper will oscillate in the short term [66][72]. - In the shipping and carbon emission market, the spot freight rate of container shipping may rise if the geopolitical conflict persists, and the freight rate of dry bulk shipping is supported by overseas demand [110][114]. - In the energy and chemical market, the price difference between domestic and foreign crude oil markets has soared, and asphalt is supported by cost with a reduced supply expectation [122][125]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the stock index continued to decline, but the market sentiment has improved. The adjustment is expected to end, and it is recommended to go long on dips and conduct index - futures and ETF arbitrage [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures closed higher. With the central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the release of the February official manufacturing PMI, the bond market was generally strong. It is recommended to hold long positions in the T contract lightly [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The supply of domestic protein meal is under pressure, and the price may decline. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the single - side and narrow the MRM09 spread [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price has fallen, and the domestic sugar price has corrected. The international sugar market may oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price may oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. It is recommended to buy low and sell high on the single - side [29][31][32]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: The prices of CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil have changed. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and fundamentals, the oil and fat market may oscillate with increased volatility. It is recommended to consider reverse arbitrage on p59 and y59 [33][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn futures have declined. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures are in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on the 05 corn on the single - side and expand the spread between 05 corn and starch [37][38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is oscillating, with sufficient supply in the medium - to - long term and some short - term support. It is recommended to short the far - month contracts on the single - side [40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut lightly on dips and sell the pk605 - P - 7700 option [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has declined due to the off - season consumption. It is recommended to short the June contract on the single - side [45][47]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory is at a relatively low level, and the price is firm. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long - 5 and short - 10 arbitrage [50][51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external cotton market is oscillating. The domestic cotton price has strong support below and is likely to oscillate stronger. It is recommended to go long on the domestic cotton on dips [53][54][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: During the two sessions, steel prices will continue to oscillate. The overall fundamentals of steel are weakening, but the short - term trend is oscillating stronger. It is recommended to go short on the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating greatly but without an obvious trend. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating stronger. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased, but the impact on domestic iron ore supply is small. The supply is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The profit - loss ratio of ferroalloys has decreased, and it is recommended to partially close long positions [64][65]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market sentiment has recovered, but inflation concerns still exist. Gold and silver will continue the high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and go long on silver on dips [66][67][68]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The concern about re - inflation has slightly weakened, and the precious metals will oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, wait and see on palladium, and conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [69][70][71]. - **Copper**: The copper price will oscillate in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment [72][73]. - **Alumina**: The overseas alumina price has fallen, and the domestic market is also under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [74][76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts have affected the Qatalum electrolysis plant, and the aluminum price is expected to rise. The internal - external price difference is expected to widen [78][79][80]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to rise with the aluminum price [81]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may be stronger in the short term. It is recommended to hold long positions with the stop - loss line raised [83][84][85]. - **Lead**: The lead price will oscillate within a range [86]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy is favorable, but the macro - sentiment dominates. It is recommended to buy on dips after the macro - sentiment stabilizes [90][92]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by cost, the stainless steel price follows the nickel price. It is recommended to buy after the macro - sentiment stabilizes [94][96][97]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The sudden increase in electricity prices has consolidated the bottom of the industrial silicon market. It is recommended to buy on dips and try shorting after the manufacturer hedges [98]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot transaction price has driven the futures price down. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side and pay attention to liquidity risks [100][103]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk preference has decreased, and funds have withdrawn. It is recommended to go long on dips [104][105]. - **Tin**: The long - term resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the tin price may oscillate and consolidate [107][109]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: Maersk's wk12 opening price has increased. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the spot freight rate may rise. It is recommended to close long positions in the off - season contract 04 in batches [110][111][112]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The freight rate index has risen. Affected by the resumption of work in China and geopolitical conflicts, the freight rate of all ship - types has increased. The freight rate of small and medium - sized ships may be supported by overseas demand [115][116][117]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market is trading lightly, and the EU carbon price is affected by policies and energy prices. The short - term trend of the domestic carbon price is expected to be oscillating stronger, and the EU carbon price will continue to be affected by geopolitical conflicts [117][120][121]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The situation of the war is unclear, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has soared. It is recommended to take a bullish view on the single - side [122][123][124]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the cost provides support. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks [125][126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The focus of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the near - term is on supply contradictions. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks [128][129][130]. - **LPG**: The supply is tightening, and the freight rate has increased significantly. The price is expected to oscillate stronger [131][133]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG price is continuing to correct, and the market risk is still extremely high. It is recommended to wait and see [134][136]. - **PX & PTA**: PX has carried out preventive load - reduction measures. It is recommended to follow the cost trend on the single - side [137][138]. - **BZ & EB**: There are many maintenance plans for styrene in March. The styrene price is expected to be oscillating stronger [140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Iranian plants have stopped production, and the supply from the Middle East is affected. The price is expected to be stronger with a strengthening basis [142][143][144]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price follows the cost trend. It is recommended to hold long positions before the end of geopolitical conflicts and conduct arbitrage on the processing fee [145][146]. - **Bottle Chips**: The factory load is gradually recovering. It is recommended to follow the cost trend on the single - side [147]. - **Propylene**: The price of the main raw materials has risen, and the supply - demand side has support. The price is expected to be pushed up in the short term [149][151]. - **Plastic PP**: The LLDPE and PP prices have risen. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L and PP 2605 contracts and conduct short - arbitrage on the L2605&PP2605 contract [152][153][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price is oscillating. It is recommended to be bearish on the single - side and wait and see on arbitrage [156][157]. - **PVC**: The PVC price is rising firmly. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high [159][160]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price is oscillating stronger. It is recommended to be bullish on the single - side and conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage [161][162][163]. - **Glass**: The glass price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies on the single - side and conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage [163][164][165]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously, pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [166][168]. - **Urea**: The urea price is oscillating. It is recommended to operate within the range on the single - side and wait and see on arbitrage [169][170][172]. - **Pulp**: It is necessary to pay attention to the supply of European pulp. It is recommended to go long on dips and sell the SP2605 - P - 5200 option [172][173][174]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: High inventory suppresses the paper price. It is recommended to short on rallies and sell the OP2604 - C - 4250 option [175][176]. - **Logs**: The external price has risen, and the spot price is strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [176][177][179]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The El Niño index continues to cool down. It is recommended to wait and see on the RU and NR 05 contracts [180][181][182]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production increase of butadiene rubber has expanded. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BR 05 contract and conduct long - BR2605 and short - RU2605 arbitrage [184][185][186].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the US - Iran conflict, global risk appetite is disturbed, oil prices are rising, the Fed's rate - cut expectation is weakening, and US Treasury yields are climbing rapidly. It is recommended to pay attention to domestic Two Sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation and control risks [4]. - Due to the Spring Festival dislocation, the February PMI data shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The economy's recovery momentum needs further observation, and domestic demand awaits income stabilization and policy support. The US - Iran conflict may boost the bond market in the short - term, but long - term impacts depend on the conflict's intensity and duration. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - The near - blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and strong US economic data suppress the Fed's rate - cut expectation and put pressure on precious metals. A cautious bearish view is taken on gold and silver [8]. - For copper, the geopolitical situation and policy factors support the price, and the short - term price may rise with a slowdown in inventory accumulation [11]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to supply concerns from the Middle East conflict and relatively low LME inventory [13]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely during the conflict, following the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector [15]. - Lead prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short - term and may gradually recover as supply narrows [16]. - Nickel prices are expected to rise slowly in the medium - term, but in the short - term, they will likely fluctuate to digest inventory pressure [17]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see due to the current situation of supply - demand balance and rising inventory [19]. - For lithium carbonate, it is cautiously bullish before the end of the downward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement and market atmosphere [20]. - Alumina futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on potential supply - side drivers [22]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain an upward - fluctuating pattern, with supply pressure and improved market procurement [24]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to cost support and improved demand [26]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the core contradiction being inventory digestion and demand verification [28]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate, with supply recovering and demand affected by important meetings [30]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with a potential upward trend in the second half of the year [35]. - Glass prices are expected to maintain a weak - fluctuating pattern due to high inventory and slow demand recovery [37]. - Soda ash prices are expected to maintain a narrow - fluctuating pattern, with supply reduction expectations and slow demand release [39]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to potential cost - push and supply - contraction factors [43]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with prices fluctuating due to news disturbances [45]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to be under pressure due to high inventory and weak feedback [48]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market and set stop - losses [53]. - For crude oil, a mid - term layout is recommended, including short - selling strategies and spread - trading strategies [55]. - Methanol is recommended to take profit at high prices as it has fully priced in the geopolitical premium [57]. - Urea is recommended to be short - sold as its fundamental outlook is bearish [60]. - For pure benzene and styrene, wait for the non - integrated profit to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [62]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand, and the short - term price is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [65]. - Ethylene glycol has a high inventory and high - load production. There is an expectation of reducing production to improve the supply - demand pattern, and attention can be paid to long - positions at low prices [67]. - PTA is expected to follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices after observing the maintenance situation [69]. - PX is expected to turn into a de - stocking cycle in March. It is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [71]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to rise due to reduced pressure on the supply side and a rebound in demand [73]. - Polypropylene prices are recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven to production - mismatch [76]. - For live pigs, a bearish view is taken on the near - term and a cautious bullish view on the far - term [79]. - For eggs, be aware of the valuation pressure on the far - term contracts due to increased inventory - building behavior [81]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, wait for a callback to buy due to high domestic soybean inventory and expected large - scale purchases [83]. - For oils and fats, a bullish view is taken in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy at low prices [86]. - For sugar, it is not advisable to be overly bearish on raw sugar. It is recommended to participate in long - positions in the domestic market at low prices [88]. - For cotton, it is recommended to buy at low prices, focusing on the downstream opening rate in March [91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - Financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: A 15% global tariff rate may be implemented this week; US ADP employment in February was 63,000, higher than expected; potential price volatility in precious metals if gold and silver transportation is blocked; Huawei and BYD had product launches [2]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to domestic Two Sessions policy signals and the war situation, and control risks [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In February, the manufacturing PMI declined, the non - manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and the comprehensive PMI decreased. The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum needs observation. The US - Iran conflict may boost the bond market in the short - term, but long - term impacts depend on the conflict. The bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold fell 0.22%, and silver rose 1.88%. COMEX gold and silver rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.09%, and the US dollar index was 98.82. The Middle East situation and strong US economic data put pressure on precious metals [7]. - **Strategy**: A cautious bearish view is taken on gold and silver, with reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [8]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: US ADP data was better than expected, and copper prices stopped falling. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and spot discounts narrowed [10]. - **Strategy**: Geopolitical and policy factors support copper prices. The short - term price may rise with a slowdown in inventory accumulation [11]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The Middle East conflict affected aluminum supply, and prices rose and then fell. Inventory and other indicators changed [12]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to supply concerns and low LME inventory [13]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices had small changes, and inventory and other data were reported [14][15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely during the conflict, following the sentiment of the non - ferrous metal sector [15]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell slightly, and inventory and other indicators were reported [16]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize in the short - term and may gradually recover as supply narrows [16]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose, and spot and cost data were reported [17]. - **Strategy**: Nickel prices are expected to rise slowly in the medium - term, but in the short - term, they will likely fluctuate to digest inventory pressure [17]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose. Supply was affected by the situation in Myanmar, and demand was in a post - holiday recovery period [18]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC index fell, and the futures price rose [20]. - **Strategy**: It is cautiously bullish before the end of the downward trend, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement and market atmosphere [20]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell, and inventory and other data were reported [21]. - **Strategy**: Alumina futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on potential supply - side drivers [22]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose slightly, and inventory and other data were reported [23]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel is expected to maintain an upward - fluctuating pattern, with supply pressure and improved market procurement [24]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose, and inventory and other data were reported [25]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to cost support and improved demand [26]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell slightly, and inventory and other data were reported [28]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the core contradiction being inventory digestion and demand verification [28]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fell slightly, and some steel enterprises received emission - reduction notices [29]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate, with supply recovering and demand affected by important meetings [30]. 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices fell, and spot - to - futures spreads were reported [32]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with a potential upward trend in the second half of the year [35]. 3.3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices rose slightly, and inventory increased. Soda ash prices rose, and inventory also increased [36][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices are expected to maintain a weak - fluctuating pattern due to high inventory and slow demand recovery. Soda ash prices are expected to maintain a narrow - fluctuating pattern, with supply reduction expectations and slow demand release [37][39]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly, and technical analysis was provided [40]. - **Strategy**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are affected by market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to potential cost - push and supply - contraction factors [43]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Inventory and other data were reported [44][46]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon is expected to have a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with prices fluctuating due to news disturbances. Polysilicon prices are expected to be under pressure due to high inventory and weak feedback [45][48]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fell slightly, and industry data such as tire - factory开工率 and inventory were reported [50][51]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the market and set stop - losses. A hedging strategy of buying NR and short - selling RU2609 is suggested [53]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined - oil product prices rose, and inventory data of Fujeirah port were reported [54]. - **Strategy**: A mid - term layout is recommended, including short - selling strategies and spread - trading strategies [55]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [56]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit at high prices as it has fully priced in the geopolitical premium [57]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [59]. - **Strategy**: Urea is recommended to be short - sold as its fundamental outlook is bearish [60]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Prices of pure benzene and styrene rose, and supply - demand and inventory data were reported [61]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the non - integrated profit to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [62]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and cost, supply - demand, and inventory data were reported [63]. - **Strategy**: PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand, and the short - term price is driven by crude oil cost sentiment [65]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were reported [66]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of reducing production to improve the supply - demand pattern, and attention can be paid to long - positions at low prices [67]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were reported [68]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to follow PX and crude oil to go long at low prices after observing the maintenance situation [69]. 3.4.9 PX - **Market Information**: PX prices rose, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were reported [70]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to turn into a de - stocking cycle in March. It is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [71]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Polyethylene prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data were reported [72]. - **Strategy**: Polyethylene prices are expected to rise due to reduced pressure on the supply side and a rebound in demand [73]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Polypropylene prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data were reported [74]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices, with the long - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven to production - mismatch [76]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Live Pigs

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.54% to $5151.60 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 0.35% to $83.77 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract fell 0.22% to 1144.20 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 1.53% to 21546 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 4, the global largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust's holdings decreased by 18 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1081.038 tons. The global largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust's holdings decreased by 33.81 tons, with the current holding at 15947.57 tons [1] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 12.5% [1] - The US Senate's first vote on the Iranian "war powers resolution" did not pass the vote to stop Trump from striking Iran without congressional authorization [1] - The US defense secretary said the US - Iran conflict may last 8 weeks or longer. Iran denied secret peace - talks rumors and is ready for a long - term war [1] - In February, the US private sector added 63,000 new jobs, higher than the market expectation of 50,000. However, the January data was revised down from 22,000 to 11,000 [1] - The US ISM services index in February rose to 56.1, up 2.3 points from the previous month, reaching a new high since mid - 2022. The new orders sub - index climbed to 58.6, and the order backlog index soared 11.9 points [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the US dollar index fell 0.26% to 98.82. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose for the third consecutive day to 4.103%. On Tuesday, due to the strengthening of the dollar and rising Treasury yields, precious metals declined. On Wednesday, with the slight decline of the dollar index, the rebound of US stocks, and the interruption of Dubai air freight, precious metals rose slightly [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to high short - term market uncertainty, investors should control positions to prevent risks [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 5, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market is affected by multiple factors, including the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, domestic environmental protection policies, and downstream consumption recovery. The high - inflation expectation caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the strong rebound of the US dollar put pressure on non - ferrous metals. Although zinc is less directly affected, the expected supply disruption from Iranian zinc mines supports the tight zinc ore market. High inventory and weak demand suppress zinc prices, and the spot discount remains low. Future zinc price trends depend on the evolution of the US - Iran situation and the progress of domestic downstream resumption and inventory reduction [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Data**: For the Shanghai zinc futures, the 2603 contract opened at 24,470 yuan/ton, closed at 24,400 yuan/ton with a decrease of 115 yuan and a decline rate of 0.47%, and the position decreased by 830 to 8,530. The 2604 contract (the main contract) opened at 24,375 yuan/ton, closed at 24,480 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or 0.59%, with a position decrease of 8,042 to 87,434. The 2605 contract opened at 24,330 yuan/ton, closed at 24,540 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan or 0.59%, and the position increased by 2,130 to 64,951 [7]. - **Market Situation**: Non - ferrous metals showed a mixed trend. The US - Iran conflict affected the Middle East aluminum supply chain, leading to production cuts and higher production costs, thus pushing up aluminum prices. Shanghai aluminum and nickel rose due to capital inflows, while Shanghai tin led the decline. The high - inflation expectation caused by the Strait of Hormuz blockade led to a significant drop in the expected interest rate cut in June, and the strong US dollar put pressure on non - ferrous metals. The supply situation of each metal led to differentiated trends. Zinc was less directly affected, but the expected supply disruption of Iranian zinc mines supported the tight zinc ore market. During the Two Sessions in China, environmental protection restrictions in North China tightened, downstream consumption recovered slowly, and social inventory was expected to continue to increase this week. High inventory and weak demand led to a low - level spot discount. The Shanghai market had a discount of 70 yuan to the 04 contract, the Tianjin market had a discount of 10 yuan to the Shanghai market, and the Guangdong market had a discount of 105 yuan to the 04 contract [7]. 2. Industry News - **Price and Quotation on March 4, 2026**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,365 - 24,620 yuan/ton, and double - swallow zinc was traded between 24,465 - 24,710 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,295 - 24,550 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton for the next - month ticket based on the SMM average price, and there was no quotation against the market [8]. - **Regional Market Conditions**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 24,385 - 24,620 yuan/ton, with a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded between 24,360 - 24,670 yuan/ton, and Zijin zinc was traded between 24,400 - 24,670 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingots were traded around 24,310 - 24,560 yuan/ton. Zijin zinc offered a premium or discount of 0 - 30 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and Huzinc was priced at 25,070 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc ingots offered a discount of 0 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and the Tianjin market had a discount of about 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded between 24,330 - 24,575 yuan/ton, with a discount of 125 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides four data charts: the price trends of zinc in two markets, the SHFE monthly spread, the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots (in ten thousand tons), and the LME zinc inventory (in tons), with data sources including Wind and SMM [11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economic data is strong, U.S. stocks rebounded, and gold prices closed slightly higher. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up across the board, and the three major European stock indexes stopped falling and rebounded. U.S. bond yields rose collectively, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising 3.65 basis points to 4.096%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% to 98.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar to 6.8946. COMEX gold futures rose 0.54% to $5151.60 per ounce. The gold market is affected by multiple factors, and the Shanghai gold premium has expanded to 8 yuan/gram. With the continuous escalation of the Middle East situation, risk appetite is significantly hit, and safe-haven sentiment still provides support, leading to gold price fluctuations. It is recommended to operate in the range of 1130 - 1165 for Shanghai Gold 2604 [4]. - Silver prices rose after a pullback. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up across the board, and the three major European stock indexes stopped falling and rebounded. U.S. bond yields rose collectively, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising 3.65 basis points to 4.096%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% to 98.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar to 6.8946. COMEX silver futures rose 0.35% to $83.77 per ounce. Trump vowed to "spare no expense" on the Iran issue. In the afternoon, it was reported that the U.S. would provide insurance and naval escort for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a slump in silver prices and then a rebound. The Shanghai silver premium converged to around 2500 yuan/kilogram. With low risk appetite and safe-haven sentiment still providing support, silver prices are weak [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The U.S. economic data was strong, U.S. stocks rebounded, and gold prices closed slightly higher. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up across the board, and the three major European stock indexes stopped falling and rebounded. U.S. bond yields rose collectively, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising 3.65 basis points to 4.096%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% to 98.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar to 6.8946. COMEX gold futures rose 0.54% to $5151.60 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Silver prices rose after a pullback. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed up across the board, and the three major European stock indexes stopped falling and rebounded. U.S. bond yields rose collectively, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield rising 3.65 basis points to 4.096%. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.26% to 98.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar to 6.8946. COMEX silver futures rose 0.35% to $83.77 per ounce [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis of gold is -2.2, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 105,060 kilograms, a decrease of 27 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20-day moving average is upward, and the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, which is neutral. The main net long position is held, and the main long position increases, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is -394, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 294,823 kilograms, a decrease of 12,661 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20-day moving average is downward, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish. The main net long position is held, and the main long position decreases, which is bullish [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Time TBD: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China is held in Beijing. - 08:30: Australia's January goods and services trade balance. - 16:50: European Central Bank Vice President de Guindos speaks at an event of the Institute of International Finance (IIF). - 17:35: European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn also speaks at the IIF event. - 18:00: German Bundesbank President (also a member of the European Central Bank Governing Council) Nagel submits the Bundesbank's 2025 annual report. - 21:30: U.S. January trade balance, January import price index, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28. - 01:00 the next day: European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a "2026 Global Risk Lecture" speech in memory of Robert Mundell [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The mid-term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and continuous easing. There is still support at the macro - level. The risks include Trump's impact, improvement in U.S. economic expectations, significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black swan events [9][10]. - **Silver**: Global turmoil, tense U.S.-Iran relations, a significant shadow Fed, potential determination of the new Fed chairman, rising expectations of easing, a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar, the resurgence of Trump's tariff storm, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors for silver prices, and low spot inventory with a hot supply - shortage game are positive factors. The fading marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, significant internal differences within the Fed, the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts, deteriorating risk appetite, and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks are negative factors [12][13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold on March 4, 2026, was 155,716, a decrease of 7,826 or 4.79% compared with March 3. The short position volume was 42,969, an increase of 275 or 0.64%. The net position was 112,747, a decrease of 8,101 or 6.70% [37]. - **Silver**: The long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver on March 4, 2026, was 273,112, a decrease of 6,135 or 2.20% compared with March 3. The short position volume was 271,108, a decrease of 6,777 or 2.44%. The net position was 2,004, an increase of 642 or 47.14% [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. It is expected to move in a short - term shock. Attention should be paid to the Middle East events. The supply side is disturbed, the smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. The manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances exist, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with the manufacturing prosperity level declining; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 101,950, the basis is 290, with a premium over the futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On March 4, copper inventory increased by 3,850 to 261,525 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared with last week; neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is running downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position decreases; bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多Factors**: Geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, slow mine - end production increase, and the production reduction event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area [4]. - **利空Factors**: Repeated US comprehensive tariffs and the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [4]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 119,054 tons to 391,529 tons compared with last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [12]. Other Indicators - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee has declined [14]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [18]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, the production is 12.06 million tons, the import is 3.73 million tons, the export is 0.46 million tons, the apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, the actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is 0.11 million tons [20].