Report Overview - Report Name: Baocheng Futures' Morning Report on Beans and Oils (June 17, 2025) [1] - Research Focus: Commodity futures in the agricultural products sector, including soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of the beans and oils market is positive, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil all being either "strong" or "slightly strong" [5][6][7][9] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly strong, medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is slightly strong [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The positive outlook of the US biofuel policy boosts the demand for US soybean crushing. As US soybeans enter the weather - sensitive period, they tend to rise. The domestic soybean market is supported by the US soybean futures price, and the upward trend continues. The linkage between beans and oils is strengthening. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect the market [5][7] Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Intraday and medium - term views are strong, and the reference view is strong [6][7][8] - **Core Logic**: The improving outlook for US bio - energy demand has led to the US soybean oil futures price hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days, which significantly boosts the domestic oils and fats sector. The strengthening of international oil prices also has a spill - over effect on the oils and fats sector. Although the domestic oil mill's soybean oil inventory is still accumulating, the market trading logic focuses on the US soybean oil in the external market and the cost support of raw soybeans, making the soybean oil futures price turn strong [8] Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Intraday and medium - term views are strong, and the reference view is strong [7][9] - **Core Logic**: The overall oils and fats market is strong. The strong performance of US soybean oil futures and the strengthening of international oil prices have made the biodiesel attribute of palm oil prominent. Market sentiment has improved significantly, and funds have flowed back into the palm oil market. With the enhanced linkage between beans and oils, the oils and fats market has entered a rebound channel, and domestic palm oil has shown high price elasticity and led the rebound of the oils and fats sector [9]

Group 1 - Chicago futures market saw mixed price movements for corn, wheat, and soybeans on June 16, with corn down 9.75 cents to $4.35 per bushel, wheat down 7.25 cents to $5.37 per bushel, and soybeans unchanged at $10.70 per bushel [1] - The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a record soybean crush of 192.8 million bushels in May, up 5% year-on-year, aligning with industry expectations [1] - The supply of feed in the market is ample, leading to difficulties in raising corn and wheat prices despite favorable weather conditions in the Midwest [1] Group 2 - The USDA's export inspection report indicated that corn export inspections for the week ending June 12 were 66 million bushels, lower than the previous week but up 28% year-on-year, reaching a cumulative total of 2.049 billion bushels for the crop year [2] - Soybean export inspections for the same week were 8 million bushels, down from 21 million bushels the previous week, while wheat inspections increased to 14 million bushels [2] - Weather forecasts predict rain coverage in the Plains, Midwest, and South until June 19, followed by a period of high temperatures in the corn belt from June 22 to 24 [2]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 6 月 16 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds showed a positive trend, with soybean oil futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a peak of 7998.00 yuan/ton, marking a rise of 2.57% [1] - The rise in soybean oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have led to a surge in international crude oil prices, alongside favorable U.S. biodiesel policies [1][2] - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency proposed higher biodiesel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027, set at 24.02 billion gallons and 24.46 billion gallons respectively, exceeding industry expectations and supporting the bullish sentiment in the soybean oil market [1][2] Group 2 - Despite an increase in domestic soybean oil inventory by 70,000 tons, which may exert downward pressure on prices, current stock levels remain low compared to historical averages [2] - Market activity has been relatively subdued, with weaker food and downstream restaurant consumption observed in June, leading to cautious market sentiment regarding future supply [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal futures market is influenced by the weather - driven fluctuations of US soybean prices, positive expectations of US bio - energy policies, and rising import cost expectations, resulting in a continuous staged rebound [5]. - The palm oil market is supported by the active procurement of 6 - 8 - month shipments from India and China. Although the EU market demand decline is a drag, the overall oils and fats sector has entered a rebound channel, and domestic palm oil follows the international palm oil price rebound [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Intraday View**: Oscillating strongly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: US soybean futures prices show weather - market fluctuation characteristics and are supported by positive bio - energy policies. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by rising import cost expectations, and with the return of market sentiment, funds are flowing into the soybean market, continuing the staged rebound [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday View**: Strong [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Reference View**: Strong [7] - **Core Logic**: International palm oil demand is supported by India and China's procurement, but EU demand decline is a drag. Domestic palm oil inventory is rising with increased purchases. The oils and fats sector is boosted by international oil prices and US bio - fuel policies, and domestic palm oil follows the international price rebound [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall balance sheet of new US soybean crops has tightened, especially under the influence of biodiesel policy adjustments, making the overall supply - demand situation more tense. South American supply is generally loose, with potential export pressure in Brazil and stable high - yield in Argentina. In China, soybean arrivals are increasing while demand is good, but there is still some pressure [4]. - Raw sugar has been dragged down by the expected increase in global supply, hitting a four - year low. In China, the delayed summer stocking demand, combined with the short - term weakness of raw sugar, has led to higher import profits, and the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [9]. - Last Friday night, the EPA's proposed RVO exceeded expectations, causing the US soybean oil to hit the daily limit. Affected by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, Brent crude oil also opened higher. Oils and fats are expected to run strongly in the short term, following crude oil and US biodiesel. Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase its procurement. Domestic soybean oil is in a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is not overly loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, with a pattern of oversupply, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil market is still strong [17]. - US corn sowing is accelerating, and the weather is favorable, so the outer - market corn is oscillating at the bottom. In China, corn supply is relatively scarce, with rising prices in the Northeast and stable port prices. It is rumored that imported corn will be auctioned. The spot price of corn in North China is strong, and the wheat price continues to rise. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened, and the corn spot price is relatively stable. The 07 corn contract has declined, and the basis has narrowed. Corn spot is expected to be strong in the short term, while futures will oscillate at a high level [26]. - After the continuous decline in pig prices, farmers' resistance to low prices has increased, and the overall slaughter rhythm has slowed down. However, due to the increasing monthly slaughter of large - scale enterprises and the high inventory of ordinary farmers and secondary fattening, the overall supply pressure is still relatively high [30]. - Peanut spot trading is still scarce. New - season peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined and are currently stable at around 4.6 yuan per catty. Imports have decreased significantly, and the price of imported peanuts is also falling. Peanut oil mills' purchase prices are relatively stable, but downstream consumption remains weak. Peanut meal prices are stable, and peanut oil prices are stable. Oil mills are profitable, but the purchase volume of large - scale oil mills is small. The peanut market for oil is weak. The market expects an increase in the new - season planting area, and peanuts are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term with potential for further decline [34]. - After May, with the arrival of the rainy season, egg consumption has entered the off - season, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. For futures, considering the current price level, the downward space is limited. For far - month contracts, as egg prices weaken, the willingness to cull laying hens has increased. If the culling volume continues to rise in the future, which may improve the egg supply, the August and September contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise, but the upward space may be limited if the supply side is not significantly improved [43]. - The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April had a negative impact on fruit setting in some areas of Shaanxi. The futures price of apples in June is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [50]. - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is affected by two factors. On the macro level, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries makes the cotton trend highly uncertain. On the fundamental level, the national commercial cotton inventory is currently at a low level. If the inventory - reduction speed remains the same in the future, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new - flower listing, and cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **External Market Situation**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.69% to 1062.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 298.6 US dollars per short ton [2]. - **Relevant Information**: US May soybean crushing is expected to reach a record high for the same period, with an average estimate of 193.519 million bushels. Brazil's soybean exports from March to May increased by 3.3 million tons to 44 million tons. CONAB expects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to reach 169.6058 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. As of June 13, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%. Soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year, and soybean meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week but decreased by 57% year - on - year [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new US soybean balance sheet has tightened, while South American supply is loose. In China, there is still some pressure despite increasing arrivals and good demand [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term short - selling operations for single - side trading; M11 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage; selling call options for options trading [5]. Sugar - **External Market Situation**: ICE US sugar fell, with the main contract down 0.16 (0.96%) to 16.54 cents per pound [6]. - **Important Information**: Sugar prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing plants have decreased. As of Friday, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 707 week - on - week, and the number of effective forecasts remained unchanged. China's sugar imports in May are expected to be about 400,000 tons, much higher than 20,000 tons in the same period last year. The sales - to - production ratio of domestic sugar in the 24/25 season as of the end of May exceeded 70% [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Raw sugar has been affected by the expected increase in global supply, while in China, the supply pressure of refined sugar is about to materialize, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline [9]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, maintain a short position with partial profit - taking and partial holding; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, use out - of - the - money ratio spread options [10][11][12]. Oilseeds and Oils - **External Market Situation**: The price of CBOT US soybean oil changed by 6.48% to 50.61 cents per pound, and the price of BMD Malaysian palm oil changed by 2.27% to 3927 ringgit per ton [14]. - **Relevant Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 15 increased by 26.3% compared to the same period last month. The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026. As of June 10, about 13% of US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, and about 18% of US corn planting areas were affected [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The EPA's proposal and geopolitical factors have led to a strong short - term trend in oils and fats. India's tax reduction on crude palm oil may increase its procurement. Domestic soybean oil is accumulating inventory, and the rapeseed oil market has an oversupply pattern but strong bottom support [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, oils and fats are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but may fall back after the event and sentiment fade; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [18][19][20]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rose, with the main contract rebounding 0.2% to 444.5 cents per bushel [22]. - **Important Information**: In the US corn - producing states, 94.44% of the areas are likely to have higher - than - normal temperatures and 61% are likely to have higher - than - normal precipitation in the next 6 - 10 days. The wheat market price is rising. As of June 10, about 13% of US soybean planting areas and 18% of US corn planting areas were affected by drought. The expected corn planting area in the US 2025/2026 is 95.3 million acres, unchanged from May. The purchase price in the northern port is stable, and the corn price in the North China production area is strong [23][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: US corn sowing is accelerating, and the outer - market corn is oscillating at the bottom. In China, corn supply is scarce, and the spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, while futures will oscillate at a high level [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the outer - market 07 corn is oscillating at the bottom, and take a wait - and - see approach for the 07 contract; for arbitrage, conduct oscillating operations on corn and starch spreads, buy the 09 starch contract and short the 09 corn contract when the spread is low, and hold the position of buying corn and shorting the 07 corn contract; for options, consider a strategy of selling options at high prices for those with spot inventory [27][28]. Pigs - **Relevant Information**: Pig prices are rebounding in most regions. As of June 13, the prices of 7 - kg and 15 - kg piglets remained unchanged, while the price of 50 - kg sows decreased by 3 yuan per head. On June 13, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased by 0.14 points, and the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.3% [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the decline in pig prices, farmers' resistance to low prices has increased, but the overall supply pressure remains high due to the increasing slaughter of large - scale enterprises and high inventory [30]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, conduct LH79 reverse spreads; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanuts - **Important Information**: Peanut prices in different regions are stable. The arrival volume of peanut oil mills is small, and the price of peanut oil is strong with some negotiation space. Peanut meal sales are slow. As of June 12, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased by 5280 tons week - on - week, and the peanut oil inventory decreased by 170 tons week - on - week [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut spot trading is scarce, imports are decreasing, and the market expects an increase in the new - season planting area, so peanuts are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [34]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, short peanuts at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8800 option [35][36][37]. Eggs - **Important Information**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas decreased by 0.22 yuan per catty compared to last Friday, and the price in the main sales areas decreased by 0.18 yuan per catty. The national mainstream egg price is mostly stable. In May, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion month - on - month and 7.2% year - on - year. The egg - chick hatching volume in May decreased by 4% month - on - month and increased by 1% year - on - year. As of June 13, the weekly slaughter volume of laying hens increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the average slaughter age decreased by 3 days. As of June 12, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas decreased by 7.4% week - on - week. The average inventory in the production and circulation links increased, and the egg - farming profit decreased [40][41][42]. - **Trading Logic**: Egg consumption is in the off - season, and the spot price is expected to be weak. For futures, the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of laying hens increases, the August and September contracts may rise, but the upward space may be limited [43]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, consider building long positions in the August and September far - month contracts in mid - to - late June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high; for arbitrage, short near - month contracts and long far - month contracts; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [44]. Apples - **Important Information**: As of June 11, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main production areas was 1.2746 million tons, a decrease of 107,400 tons week - on - week, and the sales speed slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative apple export volume from January to March increased by 9.5% year - on - year, and the import volume increased by 123.9% year - on - year. The downstream demand for apples is weak, and the impact of seasonal fruits is significant. The new - season apple bagging is mostly in the later stage. The price of apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable, with more transactions in high - cost - performance products [45][47][48]. - **Trading Logic**: The low inventory of apples this season is expected to support the price of early - maturing apples. The futures price in June is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [50]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, build long positions in the AP10 contract at low prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [56]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Influence**: ICE US cotton rose on Friday, with the main contract rising 0.37 (0.55%) to 67.90 cents per pound [52]. - **Important Information**: Cotton spot trading is cold, and the purchase intention of spinning mills is weak. The sales basis is firm. As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of ICE cotton futures sellers decreased by 1511. From June 1 to 11, the rainfall in India's cotton - producing areas was lower than normal. The southwest monsoon resumed on Thursday [53][54][57]. - **Trading Logic**: The uncertainty of trade policies affects the cotton trend, and the low commercial inventory may lead to tight supply before the new - flower listing, so cotton prices may oscillate slightly stronger [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate strongly under macro - influence; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [59][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the next week (06.16 - 06.20), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate strongly. The U.S. biodiesel policy is unexpectedly positive, driving up the U.S. soybean futures price and supporting the soybean meal price. For domestic soybeans, the market is waiting for the release of Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybeans. In the future, attention should be paid to the weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas and trade negotiations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 U.S. Soybean Futures Market - Last week (06.09 - 06.13), the U.S. soybean futures price first declined and then rose. The decline was due to good weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas, lack of agricultural details in China - U.S. trade negotiations, and concerns about U.S. soybean demand. The rise was because the biofuel blending requirements proposed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency were higher than industry expectations, which was beneficial to boosting U.S. soybean oil and soybean demand. There were no large - scale export sales orders for U.S. soybeans during the week. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of June 13, the main 07 contract of U.S. soybeans had a weekly increase of 0.99%, and the main 07 contract of U.S. soybean meal had a weekly decrease of 1.52% [1]. 3.2 Domestic Soybean Meal and Soybean Futures Market - Last week (06.09 - 06.13), the domestic soybean meal futures price "first rose, then fell, and fluctuated strongly", while the soybean futures price rose. For soybean meal, the price was strong mainly due to China - U.S. trade talks and positive market sentiment. The subsequent slight decline was because the sharp rise in crude oil drove up the price of soybean oil, affected by the "oil - strong, meal - weak seesaw" effect. For soybeans, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The main contract was shifted to the 2509 contract. The previous price of this contract was relatively low, and it made up for the increase recently affected by the strong surrounding market. Although there was an expectation of the release of Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybeans, the impact on the futures market was small. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of June 13, the main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.03%, and the main a2509 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 3.39% [2]. 3.3 International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **U.S. soybean sales and shipment**: In the week of June 5, for 2024/25, the U.S. soybean export shipment was about 450,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 47%; the cumulative export shipment was about 45.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipment to China was 0, and the cumulative shipment to China was about 22.48 million tons (about 23.88 million tons in the same period last year). The current - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of U.S. soybeans were about 60,000 tons (about 190,000 tons in the previous week); the next - market - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 58,000 tons (about 3,600 tons in the previous week), with a total of about 118,000 tons (about 193,600 tons in the previous week), at the lower end of the expectation (100,000 - 700,000 tons). The current - crop - year (2024/25) weekly net sales of U.S. soybeans to China were 0 ( - 100 tons in the previous week), and the next - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales to China were 0 (0 in the previous week) [2]. - **U.S. soybean planting progress and quality**: As of the week of June 9, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 90%, compared with 87% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 88%. The good - to - excellent rate was 68%, compared with 67% in the previous week and 72% in the same period last year [2]. - **Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and crushing profit**: As of the week of June 13, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for July - September delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit increased week - on - week [2]. - **Weather forecast in U.S. soybean - producing areas**: According to the weather forecast on June 14, in the next two weeks (June 15 - June 29), there will be more precipitation and higher temperatures in the U.S. soybean - producing areas, with a neutral impact [2]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of June 13, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills in China was about 350,000 tons (mainly due to the large - scale trading of basis contracts from October 2025 to January 2026), compared with about 120,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of June 13, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 195,000 tons, compared with about 200,000 tons in the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of June 13, the weekly average basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 149 yuan/ton, compared with about - 61 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 112 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of June 6, the inventory of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills in China was about 320,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 21% and a year - on - year decrease of about 60% [4]. - **Crushing volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased slightly week - on - week and is expected to rise next week. According to the forecast of Steel Union (125 oil mills), as of the week of June 13, the weekly soybean crushing volume in China was about 2.26 million tons (2.24 million tons in the previous week and 1.9 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 63.5% (63% in the previous week and 54% in the same period last year). Next week (June 14 - June 20), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 2.46 million tons (1.94 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 69% (55% in the same period last year) [4]. 3.5 Domestic Soybean Spot Market - **Soybean price**: The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some northeastern regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans (the mainstream purchase price of clean soybeans passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,220 - 4,320 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In some inland regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 5,140 - 5,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of edible soybeans from the Northeast (the mainstream retail price of medium - grade, packaged, "tower - selected" Northeast soybeans) was in the range of 4,620 - 4,840 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [5]. - **Market situation in the Northeast production area**: There was little remaining grain in the Northeast production area, and the purchase was slow. Due to the reduction of soybean sources at the grass - roots level and the strong soybean futures price, a few grain - holding entities raised their asking prices. Traders' purchases were slow, mainly focusing on inventory reduction or purchasing according to orders [5]. - **Market expectation of reserve soybean release**: The market is currently focused on when the reserve soybeans will be put into the market. There are rumors that the Heilongjiang provincial reserve soybeans may start to be sold next week, subject to the official website announcement [5]. - **Demand in the sales area**: The demand in the sales area was weak. After mid - June, in the hot and humid weather, the terminal market's demand for soybean products decreased. Various soybean product factories limited or stopped production due to the slow sales of downstream products, which affected the procurement enthusiasm for raw soybeans [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For soybean meal, the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans has increased domestic oil - mill operating rates and rapidly raised soybean meal inventories. The short - term rise in Brazilian premiums will support soybean meal to some extent, but the overall loose supply pattern remains unchanged. Key factors to watch include Brazilian premiums, US soybean planting area weather, and policy changes [2] - For corn, on the domestic front, the supply has increased due to factors such as the end of grassroots grain reserves and the need for traders to clear inventory for wheat purchases. The demand from deep - processing enterprises is low, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders. Attention should be paid to the listing and substitution of new - season wheat [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3049 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2674 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (+1.36%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - US soybean export inspection: In the week of May 29, 2025, it was 54.7 tons, higher than market expectations. As of the week of June 6, 2024, it was 23.4 tons. Cumulative exports this crop year reached 4518.8 tons, compared with 4054.3 tons in the same period of the previous year [1] Market Analysis - With the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans, domestic oil - mill operating rates have increased, and soybean meal inventories have risen from low levels. The overall supply of soybeans remains loose, and short - term support comes from rising Brazilian premiums [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2372 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.08%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2710 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.04%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Ukraine wheat export: As of June 11, 2024/25, Ukraine exported 1518.4 tons of wheat, lower than the previous year. The export volume has reached 93.7% of the quota, with 100 tons of quota remaining [3] Market Analysis - On the supply side, grassroots grain reserves are exhausted, and traders need to clear inventory for wheat purchases. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises have low operating rates, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

2025年06月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：国际油价反弹，关注RVO公布情况 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆担忧需求、盘面下跌，连粕震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理为主 | 8 | | 棉花：关注下游开机和原料需求 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：梅雨季利空释放，等待淘鸡印证 | 11 | | 生猪：等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：关注现货 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 13 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：国际油价反弹，关注 RVO 公布情况 豆油：驱动暂时不强，区间震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,010 | 涨跌幅 0.50% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,046 | 涨跌幅 0.45% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 豆粕2507 | 2864 | 2872 | 2886 | 2853 | 2874 | 10 | 0.35% | 68216 | ...