Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall industrial production is stable, with some indicators showing upward trends and others showing downward trends. Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. Automobile sales have increased year-on-year, and price performance is differentiated. Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. Port throughput has increased, while most shipping indices have declined. Bond indices have generally fallen, most stock indices have risen, commodities have shown mixed performance, and most foreign currencies have depreciated [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Large - scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined, most stock indices rose, commodities showed mixed performance, and most foreign currencies depreciated. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [1][6]. 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream perspective, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47% week - on - week, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.67% week - on - week. In the real estate chain, the rebar operating rate decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65% week - on - week, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operating rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. In the general consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48% week - on - week, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% week - on - week [1][9]. 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volumes in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1][32]. 4. Consumption - Automobile sales have increased year - on - year, and price performance is differentiated. Both the year - on - year wholesale and retail sales of automobiles increased. In the previous period, the year - on - year sales of passenger cars in the wholesale and retail markets increased by 6.00% and 9.00% respectively compared with last year, and both the 4WMA of the year - on - year wholesale growth rate and the 4WMA of the year - on - year retail growth rate increased. The weekly box office of movies decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with the pork price decreasing by 0.31% week - on - week and the vegetable price increasing by 4.23% week - on - week [1][46]. 5. Investment - Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction is performing well. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. By city tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][55]. 6. Export - Port throughput has increased slightly, and most shipping indices have declined. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the container throughput increased by 0.2% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [1][73].

Core Viewpoint - The strategic cooperation agreement between Yancheng Municipal Government and CATL aims to promote zero-carbon development and support Yancheng in achieving its dual carbon goals [2][7]. Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The agreement will enhance resource integration and collaboration between Yancheng and CATL, establishing a new model for zero-carbon development [2]. - Yancheng and CATL will work together to build a "green electricity direct connection + zero-carbon ecosystem," setting a benchmark for zero-carbon industrial cooperation [2]. Group 2: Background and Context - Yancheng has been identified as a key area for green electricity direct connection projects, with three pilot projects, including CATL's, selected [3][4]. - The province of Jiangsu aims to enhance green electricity consumption capabilities through these pilot projects, promoting green and low-carbon development [4]. Group 3: Yancheng's Energy Landscape - Yancheng is the leading city in Jiangsu in terms of power generation, hosting all major state-owned power enterprises and possessing abundant wind and solar energy resources [5]. - As of July this year, Yancheng's installed capacity for renewable energy reached 20.06 million kilowatts, making it the first city in the eastern coastal region to surpass this milestone [5]. - Yancheng's offshore wind power capacity accounts for approximately half of Jiangsu's total, one-eighth of the national total, and seven percent of the global total, solidifying its status as the "offshore wind power capital" [5]. Group 4: Innovative Solutions - To address the instability of renewable energy supply, Yancheng is innovating with "green electricity direct connection" solutions, which involve direct transmission of green energy to industrial parks [6]. - The local government emphasizes the development of zero-carbon parks and green factories to maximize the utilization of green electricity resources [6]. Group 5: CATL's Role - CATL, as a leading company in zero-carbon technology innovation and new energy equipment manufacturing, aims to be a system solution provider and a zero-carbon technology company [7]. - The collaboration with Yancheng is expected to create significant synergies and contribute to broader regional cooperation and national dual carbon goals [7].

Group 1 - The 19th International Economic Advisory Council meeting in Chongqing focused on "building an AI application hub to empower high-quality industrial development" with representatives from 21 global Fortune 500 companies [1] - A total of 71 forward-looking suggestions were made, primarily in three areas: constructing a systematic AI application mechanism, enhancing talent recruitment and training, and deepening open cooperation [1] - Companies like Signify and Hitachi Energy expressed intentions to deepen investment cooperation, with Hitachi's CEO emphasizing the need for stable power supply to unlock AI's potential [1] Group 2 - Carlsberg has invested over 20 billion yuan in China, with more than 10 billion yuan in Chongqing, and is leveraging its global "AI+" experience in its local operations [2] - Carlsberg's executive vice president proposed the establishment of an "AI+ agriculture and food" innovation platform, advocating for government-led initiatives to enhance international standards and support AI applications across various business processes [2] - The proposal includes creating a tiered talent cultivation system leveraging local educational resources to support the "AI+ agriculture and food" sector [2] Group 3 - Siemens has been involved in Chongqing's industrialization since 1925 and is a long-standing advisor in the International Economic Advisory Council [3] - Siemens' executive vice president highlighted the transition of industrial AI from "technology heat" to "application depth," aligning with Chongqing's robust manufacturing base and the new "industrial brain + future factory" model [3] - The focus is on promoting applications, nurturing talent, and building ecosystems to fully realize the potential of "manufacturing + AI" in Chongqing [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive table of the basis rate statistics for various futures contracts, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial instruments. It details the basis rate, changes compared to the previous day, and basis values for different contract months, along with corresponding spot prices and their sources [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Metals - Copper (CU): Basis rate is 0.42%, with a spot price of 82,505 and a current - month basis of 425 [4]. - Aluminum (AL): Basis rate is - 0.05%, spot price is 20,770, and current - month basis is 5 [4]. - Zinc (ZN): Basis rate is - 0.43%, spot price is 21,870, and current - month basis is - 90 [4]. - Lead (PB): Basis rate is - 0.94%, spot price is 16,950, and current - month basis is - 120 [4]. - Tin (TI): Basis rate is 0.20%, spot price is 273,700, and current - month basis is 550 [4]. - Nickel (NI): Basis rate is 1.08%, spot price is 124,050, and current - month basis is 1660 [4]. - Industrial Silicon (TI): Basis rate is 5.20%, spot price is 9500, and current - month basis is 480 [4]. - Gold (AU): Basis rate is - 0.32%, spot price is 851.99, and current - month basis is 0.25 [4]. - Silver (AG): Basis rate is - 0.56%, spot price is 10,353, and current - month basis is - 17 [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Coke: Basis rate is - 6.98%, spot price is 1637, and current - month basis is - 122.8 [4]. -动力煤 (ZC): For Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal, basis rate is 1178% (data seems abnormal), spot price is 1270, and current - month basis is 35.5; for Shanxi Q5500 coal at Qinhuangdao Port, basis rate is - 0.25%, spot price is 707, and current - month basis is - 94.4 [4]. - Silicon Iron (SF): Basis rate is - 7.88%, spot price is 5330, and current - month basis is - 406 [4]. - Manganese Silicon (SM): Basis rate is 1.04%, spot price is 6000, and current - month basis is 62 [4]. - Stainless Steel: Basis rate is 1.31%, spot price is 13,100, and current - month basis is 70 [4]. - Glass (FG): Basis rate is - 4.72%, spot price is 1210, and current - month basis is - 60 [4]. - Methanol (MA): Basis rate is - 3.54%, spot price is 2273, and current - month basis is - 84 [4]. - Ethanol (EG): Basis rate is 1.39%, spot price is 4305, and current - month basis is 130 [4]. - PTA (TA): Basis rate is - 1.45%, spot price is 4610, and current - month basis is - 68 [4]. - Polypropylene (PP): Basis rate is 2.20%, spot price is 7050, and current - month basis is 152 [4]. - Styrene (EB): Basis rate is - 0.26%, spot price is 6940, and current - month basis is - 50 [4]. - Short - fiber: Basis rate is 1.38%, spot price is 6460, and current - month basis is 6 [4]. - Plastic: Basis rate is 1.55%, spot price is 7280, and current - month basis is 111 [4]. - PVC (V): Basis rate is 9.52%, spot price is 5405, and current - month basis is 470 [4]. - Rubber (RU): Basis rate is - 4.62%, spot price is 14,850, and current - month basis is - 720 [4]. - 20 - number Rubber (NR): Basis rate is 7.19%, spot price is 13,324, and current - month basis is 849 [4]. - Soda Ash (SA): Basis rate is - 6.84%, spot price is 1225, and current - month basis is - 90 [4]. - Urea (UR): Basis rate is - 3.82%, spot price is 1610, and current - month basis is - 64 [4]. - Paper Pulp (SP): Basis rate is 13.14%, spot price is 5725, and current - month basis is 411 [4]. - Crude Oil (SC): Basis rate is - 4.02%, spot price is 470.9, and current - month basis is - 20.6 [4]. - Fuel Oil (EU): Basis rate is 8.59%, spot price is 3135, and current - month basis is 248 [4]. - Asphalt (BU): Basis rate is 1.74%, spot price is 3500, and current - month basis is 115 [4]. - Low - sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): Basis rate is - 0.7%, spot price is 3424, and current - month basis is - 7 [4]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (PG): Basis rate is 5.41%, spot price is 4498, and current - month basis is 219 [4]. Agricultural Products - Threaded Steel (RB): Basis rate is 4.20%, spot price is 3300, and current - month basis is 226 [4]. - Hot - rolled Coil (HC): Basis rate is 1.85%, spot price is 3420, and current - month basis is 0 [4]. - Iron Ore: Basis rate is 4.02%, spot price is 837.9, and current - month basis is 32.4 [4]. - Soybeans: Basis rate is 1.30%, spot price is 3980, and current - month basis is 66 [4]. - Soybean Meal (M): Basis rate is - 2.25%, spot price is 2900, and current - month basis is - 67 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): Basis rate is 4.75%, spot price is 2560, and current - month basis is 116 [4]. - Edible Oil: Basis rate is 3.03%, spot price is 8440, and current - month basis is 248 [4]. - Rapeseed Oil (Ol): Basis rate is - 1.0%, spot price is 10,040, and current - month basis is - 102 [4]. - Peanuts (PK): Basis rate is 10.57%, spot price is 8600, and current - month basis is 830 [4]. - Palm Oil: Basis rate is - 0.56%, spot price is 9170, and current - month basis is - 52 [4]. - Corn: Basis rate is 6.24%, spot price is 2300, and current - month basis is 167 [4]. - Corn Starch (CS): Basis rate is 3.48%, spot price is 2560, and current - month basis is 19 [4]. - Apples (AP): Basis rate is - 7.65%, spot price is 7800, and current - month basis is - 847 [4]. - Eggs (JD): Basis rate is 17.04%, spot price is 3600, and current - month basis is 228 [4]. - Live Pigs: Basis rate is - 1.05%, spot price is 12,550, and current - month basis is - 760 [4]. - Cotton (CF): Basis rate is 11.48%, spot price is 15,083, and current - month basis is 1553 [4]. - Sugar (SR): Basis rate is 7.38%, spot price is 5890, and current - month basis is 405 [4]. Financial Instruments - CSI 300 (IF): Basis rate is 0.69%, spot price is 4593.5, and current - month basis is 8.5 [4]. - SSE 50 (IH): Basis rate is - 0.03%, spot price is 2952.7, and current - month basis is - 1.1 [4]. - CSI 500 (IC): Basis rate is 2.44%, spot price is 7341.3, and current - month basis is 48.1 [4].

Market Overview - The recent market has seen significant gains, with gold rising over 35% and the stock market increasing by 14%, while the dollar index has dropped by 9.3% and crude oil has fallen by 11.4% [1] - The current market rally is attributed not only to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts but also to reductions in tariffs and taxes, indicating potential market bubbles [1] Historical Context - Historical data shows that since 1900, the average increase in stock market bubbles from low to peak is 244%, with current market conditions suggesting there may still be room for growth [3] - The "Seven Giants" have seen a 223% increase since March of the previous year, with a dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 39 times, indicating that the current rally may not be over yet [3] Investment Strategies - Focus on core assets is recommended, as returns during bubble periods tend to be concentrated in specific sectors rather than widespread [6] - A "barbell strategy" is suggested, where investors hold both high-risk bubble assets for potential gains and undervalued value stocks for stability [7] - Global markets such as Brazil and the UK are highlighted for their attractive price-to-earnings ratios, suggesting opportunities beyond popular stocks [8] Bond Market Insights - Monitoring corporate bonds is crucial, as they often react more sensitively to underlying company fundamentals compared to stocks [9] - Historical patterns indicate that rising interest rates typically lead to falling bond prices, suggesting a strategy of shorting bonds in anticipation of rate hikes [10] Sector Focus - Industries that may be affected by inflation, such as large pharmaceuticals and energy companies, should be monitored closely for potential risks [12] - The depreciation of the dollar is seen as beneficial for international markets, with signs of a positive correlation between the yen and Japanese stocks, indicating potential investment opportunities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of a new round of tariffs by President Trump has stirred global markets, leading to increased risk aversion among investors and significant declines in Asian stock indices [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Details - Starting October 1, the U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks, and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded pharmaceuticals [1]. - Additionally, a 25% tariff will be applied to all imported heavy trucks [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Major Asian stock indices fell sharply, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down approximately 0.6% to 45,478 points, and South Korea's Kospi dropping 2.5% to 3,384.58 points, marking its third consecutive day of decline [2][4]. - Japanese pharmaceutical stocks experienced significant declines, with Sumitomo Pharma down 5.2% and Chugai Pharmaceutical down 3.9% [2][6]. Group 3: U.S. Market Context - U.S. stock markets have seen three consecutive days of decline, primarily due to stronger-than-expected economic data, which has raised doubts about the Federal Reserve's future rate cuts [5][7]. - The recent economic performance has led to skepticism regarding the continuation of rate cuts, which have been a significant driver of U.S. stock market gains this year [5]. Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Despite the overall market downturn, oil prices have risen, with Brent crude futures reaching $69.67 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude up 0.3% to $64.59 per barrel [10][13]. - The increase in oil prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions and an unexpected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, pushing benchmark prices to their highest levels since August 1 [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the price fluctuations of the black and infrastructure upstream industries, and presents the latest situation of the production and service industries through mid - level event overviews, as well as the operating conditions of the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industries [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The third fifth meeting of the Copper Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association was held on September 24 in Xiongan New Area, with the low copper concentrate processing fees due to "involution - style" competition being the most prominent issue. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference on September 25, emphasizing stable supply of "vegetable basket" products, winter - spring vegetable production, and regulation of pig production capacity [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Ministry of Education and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Guidelines for the Procurement and Acceptance Management of Bulk Food Ingredients in School Canteens" to improve campus food safety [1]. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The prices of glass (black) and cement (infrastructure) have rebounded [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The polyester industry's operating rate is at a three - year median, power plant coal consumption is at a median level, and the asphalt operating rate is rising [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly declined, and the number of domestic flights is at a median level [3]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Update Time | Current Value | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Spot price: Corn | 9/25 | 2288.6 yuan/ton | 0.06% | | | Spot price: Egg | 9/25 | 7.8 yuan/kg | - 3.13% | | | Spot price: Palm oil | 9/25 | 9188.0 yuan/ton | - 1.90% | | | Spot price: Cotton | 9/25 | 15106.7 yuan/ton | - 1.45% | | | Average wholesale price: Pork | 9/25 | 19.4 yuan/kg | - 0.56% | | Non - ferrous Metals | Spot price: Copper | 9/25 | 82435.0 yuan/ton | 2.99% | | | Spot price: Zinc | 9/25 | 21864.0 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 9/25 | 20783.3 yuan/ton | - 0.59% | | | Spot price: Nickel | 9/25 | 124400.0 yuan/ton | 1.18% | | | Spot price: Aluminum | 9/25 | 17031.3 yuan/ton | - 0.33% | | | Spot price: Rebar | 9/25 | 3204.5 yuan/ton | 2.02% | | Ferrous Metals | Spot price: Iron ore | 9/25 | 807.9 yuan/ton | 0.04% | | | Spot price: Wire rod | 9/25 | 3385.0 yuan/ton | 1.27% | | | Spot price: Glass | 9/25 | 15.1 yuan/square meter | 5.60% | | Non - metals | Spot price: Natural rubber | 9/25 | 14958.3 yuan/ton | 0.73% | | | China Plastic City Price Index | 9/25 | 790.2 | - 0.39% | | | Spot price: WTI crude oil | 9/25 | 65.0 dollars/barrel | 2.03% | | Energy | Spot price: Brent crude oil | 9/25 | 68.5 dollars/barrel | 1.48% | | | Spot price: Liquefied natural gas | 9/25 | 3808.0 yuan/ton | - 1.19% | | | Coal price: Coal | 9/25 | 790.0 yuan/ton | 1.15% | | Chemical | Spot price: PTA | 9/25 | 4635.0 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | | | Spot price: Polyethylene | 9/25 | 7346.7 yuan/ton | - 0.65% | | | Spot price: Urea | 9/25 | 1647.5 yuan/ton | - 1.49% | | | Spot price: Soda ash | 9/25 | 1262.5 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | Real Estate | Cement price index: National | 9/25 | 134.8 | 2.53% | | | Building materials composite index | 9/25 | 114.4 points | 0.33% | | | Concrete price index: National index | 9/25 | 91.7 points | - 0.09% | [36]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Tianhao Energy confirmed that its subsidiary, Chifeng Tongrui, will officially start operations in 2025 and will be included in the company's consolidated financial statements, adhering to relevant accounting standards for revenue recognition [2][3]. Group 2 - Chifeng Tongrui is a subsidiary in which the company holds a 51% stake [2]. - The company is committed to strict compliance with accounting standards when recognizing revenue from Chifeng Tongrui [2].

Core Viewpoint - The conference held in Lhasa aimed to deepen cooperation between the region and enterprises, celebrating the 60th anniversary of Tibet Autonomous Region's establishment [1] Group 1: Conference Overview - The event was co-hosted by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade and the People's Government of Tibet Autonomous Region, with over 200 participants from various sectors [1] - Keynote speeches were delivered by Ren Hongbin, President of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, and Zhao Peng, Vice Chairman of Tibet Autonomous Region [1] Group 2: Industry Participation - A total of 65 enterprises from various industries, including agriculture, energy, biomedicine, and cultural tourism, participated in the conference, including 11 well-known foreign enterprises [1] - The conference facilitated in-depth exchanges between enterprise representatives and officials from relevant departments in Tibet [1] Group 3: Investment Promotion - Local officials from Lhasa, Shigatse, and Nyingchi provided targeted investment promotion presentations, highlighting key industry layouts, resource advantages, and investment policies [1] - A signing ceremony for cooperation projects took place, covering sectors such as automotive technology and agriculture [1] Group 4: Ongoing Support for Tibet - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade has a history of supporting Tibet's development, including training and promoting unique industries like Tibetan carpet exports [2] - Over the past 35 years, the Tibet Autonomous Region's trade promotion agency has organized nearly 6,000 enterprises to participate in over 480 domestic and international exhibitions, achieving a cumulative transaction volume exceeding 890 million yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The economic data in July - August reveals a complex macro - economic situation. There is pressure of marginal slowdown in economic growth, but counter - cyclical policies are in place. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, but the path of future rate cuts is uncertain [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week. The strong US economic data supports the US dollar index and increases the uncertainty of the Fed's future rate - cut path [4][5]. - The stock index is under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. However, there is support from positive policies, so the downside space is limited [6]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile. Policy support exists, and operations should focus on oversold rebounds [7]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is generally rising, driven by the increase in quotes by MSC and the closing of short positions by some investors [8][9]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Gold is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, and silver may rise further if it breaks through key levels. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10][12]. - The supply - side shortage has significantly pushed up the copper price. The long - term shutdown of Freeport's Grasberg mine will impact the global copper supply chain [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the - money call options [18]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. - Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. - Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain [53]. - Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [54]. - Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. - Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. - Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, and the weekly initial jobless claims decreased. The Fed's future rate - cut path is uncertain, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October has cooled [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The strong US economic data supported the US dollar index, and the RMB is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.15 this week [3][4][5]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index was under pressure due to the weakening expectation of the Fed's rate cut. The CSI 300 index rose, and the trading volume increased [5]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was volatile. The 30 - year Treasury bond trading was crowded, and the policy was supportive. It is recommended to buy on dips with proper position control [6][7]. - **Container Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices rose. MSC raised its quotes, and the market was affected by pre - holiday capital fluctuations [8][9]. Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. Silver, platinum, and palladium rose strongly. It is recommended to hold light positions during the National Day holiday [10]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose significantly due to the supply - side shortage caused by the accident at Freeport's Grasberg mine [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, alumina is likely to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [15][16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have its center of gravity move down slowly. It is recommended to buy in - the - money put options or sell out - of - the money call options [18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong in the short - term, affected by supply concerns in the nickel ore market and the rise in cobalt prices [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for opportunities for long positions [20]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton before the National Day holiday [21][22]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of "strong expectation, weak reality". It is recommended to be cautious when participating in polysilicon investment [23][24]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term contradiction lies in raw materials, and it is necessary to observe the demand's acceptance of prices [26]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products face problems of high supply and insufficient demand, with pressure on de - stocking. However, there is support from raw material replenishment before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the risk of negative - feedback production cuts after the holiday [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply is at a medium - to - high level, and the demand is in a tight balance due to pre - holiday replenishment by steel mills [29][30]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are expected to be affected by the "anti - involution" policy. It is not recommended to short coking coal. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday and relevant policies [31][32]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and the downside space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price levels [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil is rebounding driven by geopolitical risks, but the upside space is limited in the absence of major geopolitical events. The long - term trend may be weak [35][36]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic supply is controllable, and the chemical demand is temporarily strong [37][38]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA is recommended to be cautiously bought. The polyester demand is seasonally strong but lacks sustainability, and the supply - side contradictions may be alleviated [40][41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate between 4150 - 4300 yuan. It is recommended to wait for market drivers [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is recommended to hold short - put options. The main contradiction lies in the port, and the 01 contract has limited upside potential [45][46]. - **PP**: PP's downside space is limited. Attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long positions at low prices [48][49]. - **PE**: PE is expected to fluctuate. The supply may increase, and the demand recovery is slow, but the downside space is limited due to macro - expectations and low valuations [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is uncertain. Styrene has more supply disturbances. The supply is expected to increase after September, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to observe and consider widening the spread between pure benzene and styrene [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is recommended to be observed due to concerns about supply reduction from Russia. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [55]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is sluggish [56][57]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the inventory is improving [58][59]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the price is restricted by high inventory [60]. - **Glass**: Glass is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall. The supply - side may have uncertainties, and the demand is weak in the short - term [61]. - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda's spot price is weakening. The supply is fluctuating due to maintenance, and the demand varies by region [62]. Others - **Pulp**: Pulp is recommended to be bought at low prices in the futures market and to sell out - of - the - money put options in the options market [63][64]. - **Logs**: Logs are recommended to use the interval grid strategy and the covered put strategy [66][67]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is expected to fluctuate. The futures market is consolidating, and the cost pressure on the demand side still exists [68][69]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices due to high supply [70][72]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the far - month rising opportunities of palm oil and the widening of the rapeseed oil 15 - spread [73].