2026.01. 31 本文字数：2666，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 李秀中 在广东和新疆统计局30日发布了去年经济数据之后，全国31个省份去年GDP结果全部揭晓。在总量排 名上，31个省份基本上保持稳定，只有重庆超越辽宁发生变动；在经济增速上，西藏继续领跑全国。 西藏领跑 1月29日，西藏统计局发布，2025年，全区实现生产总值3031.89亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长 7.0%，增速连续四个季度位居全国前列。 梳理全国各省份经济增速，西藏、甘肃、河南和河北增速位居前三位，分别增长了7.0%、5.8%、 5.6%和5.6%。而这些省份高速增长的原因分别代表了当前经济4个发动机，大基建、资源开发和新能 源汽车等制造业。 西藏GDP增速的高增长，一个重要因素就是重大基建项目的落地。近年来，川藏铁路、雅江水电站等 大项目开始施工，带动基础设施建设投资高速增长。在这些项目带动下，民间资本大量进入，工业投资 高速增长。 2025年，西藏全区固定资产投资同比增长17.2%。2023年，全区固定资产投资比上年增长35.1%（不 含川藏铁路雅安至林芝段西藏境内投资）。2024年，西藏固定资产投资同比增长19 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a volatile trend this week, with an average daily trading volume of 3.06 trillion, a week-on-week increase of 9.44%[6] - Major indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI A100 recorded positive returns, while the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indices experienced declines[6] - Value and large-cap growth sectors performed relatively well, whereas small-cap indices such as CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 saw significant drops[6] - Cyclical sectors like oil, telecommunications, coal, and non-ferrous metals outperformed, while growth sectors including computers and new energy faced larger declines[6] Group 2: Market Insights and Expectations - The A-share market displayed structural characteristics and volatility, with gold stocks experiencing a collective pullback due to fluctuations in international gold prices[6] - AI and technology growth stocks continued to attract capital, as evidenced by the strong performance of the Sci-Tech 50 index, indicating a favorable investment logic in growth sectors[6] - Short-term market conditions are expected to remain structurally volatile, with potential pullback pressures on previously strong cyclical sectors lacking sustained catalysts[7] - The upcoming period post-Spring Festival until the Two Sessions is anticipated to be a more certain upward phase for the market, suggesting strategic positioning opportunities[7] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong market performed strongly this week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.71%[8] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a slight decline of 1.38%, indicating volatility within the tech sector[8] - Leading sectors included energy (7.44%), real estate and construction (5.71%), and finance (5.3%), while information technology and healthcare experienced minor declines[8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The Hong Kong market is expected to continue its structural upward trend, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and improving sentiment in the A-share market[9] - Sustained demand for AI is likely to benefit the tech sector in Hong Kong, although investors should remain cautious of external policy uncertainties[9] - A prudent asset allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend assets and sectors with both profitability improvement and growth potential[9] - Risks include unexpected tightening of global liquidity and complexities in market dynamics and policy changes[10]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月30日 2026年01月31日 策略周报 南向和外资净流入规模放量——1 月第 4 周全球外资周观察 核心结论：①北向资金：最近一周可能小幅净流出，其中灵活型外资可能小 幅净流入。②港股：稳定型外资流出 35 亿港元，灵活型外资流入 82 亿港元， 港股通流入 126 亿港元。③亚太市场：外资本周流入日本，12 月外资流出印 度。④美欧市场：12 月资金流入欧洲，流入美国。 A 股：最近一周北向资金可能小幅净流入。最近一周（2026/1/26-2026/1/30， 下 同 ） 交 易 日 期 间 北 向 资 金 估 算 净 流 出 9 亿 元 ， 前 一 周 （2026/1/19-2026/1/23，下同）估算净流出 93 亿元。最近一周交易日期间 灵活型外资估算净流入 25 亿元，前一周估算净流入 32 亿元。此外，我们汇 总最近一周陆股通每日前十大活跃个股，其中紫金矿业（本周陆股通双向成 交总金额为 247 亿元，占个股当周交易金额比重的 9%，下同）、宁德时代（224 亿元、17%）、中际旭创（193 亿元、10%）成交较为活跃。 港股：南向和外资净流入规模放量。根据港 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that in Q4 2025, the allocation of Hong Kong stocks by actively managed equity public funds has decreased, with a decline in the proportion of funds overweighting Hong Kong stocks [1][10] - The total size of actively managed equity public funds eligible to invest in Hong Kong stocks in Q4 2025 is 20,356 billion, accounting for 52.2% of the total actively managed equity fund size, down from 52.4% in Q3 2025 [10] - The market value of Hong Kong heavy stocks held by actively managed equity public funds in Q4 2025 is 3,121 billion, which is a decrease from 3,950 billion in Q3 2025 [10][11] Group 2 - In terms of industry allocation, actively managed equity public funds have increased their exposure to cyclical financial sectors while reducing exposure to technology and consumer sectors in Q4 2025 [2][19] - The sectors with increased allocation include non-ferrous metals (6.8%, up 2.3 percentage points), non-bank financials (5.1%, up 3.2 percentage points), and oil and petrochemicals (3.5%, up 2.1 percentage points) [19][26] - The sectors with reduced allocation include consumer discretionary retail (11.0%, down 2.2 percentage points), hardware equipment (3.0%, down 2.0 percentage points), and semiconductors (7.6%, down 2.0 percentage points) [19][26] Group 3 - The concentration of the top ten heavy stocks held by actively managed equity public funds has decreased, with their combined holding percentage in Q4 2025 being 49.7%, down from 54.0% in Q3 2025 [3][28] - The top three heavy stocks remain consistent with Q3 2025, including Tencent Holdings (holding size of 578 billion, accounting for 18.5%), Alibaba (310 billion, 10.0%), and SMIC (187 billion, 6.0%) [3][28]

A-Share Market - The A-share market exhibited a volatile trend this week, with an average daily trading volume of 3.06 trillion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.44% [6] - Major indices showed mixed performance, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI A100 recording positive returns, while the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indices experienced declines [6] - Sector performance was diverse, with cyclical and value sectors such as oil, petrochemicals, telecommunications, coal, and non-ferrous metals performing well, while growth sectors like computers, power equipment, new energy, and automobiles faced significant declines [6] - The market displayed structural characteristics and volatility, with precious metals and resource cyclical sectors initially strong but later retreating due to fluctuations in international gold prices, indicating rapid shifts in market sentiment and short-term speculative influences [6][7] - AI and technology growth stocks continued to attract capital, as evidenced by the strong performance of the Sci-Tech 50 index, supporting the investment logic in growth directions [6] Outlook for A-Share Market - The short-term outlook suggests a continuation of structural trends, but increased volatility is anticipated. Cyclical sectors that were previously strong may face correction pressures if lacking sustained catalysts [7] - With the Spring Festival approaching, the period after the festival until the Two Sessions may present a more certain upward trend, suggesting opportunities for strategic positioning post-festival [7] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong market showed strong overall performance this week, with major indices rising, including a 2.38% increase in the Hang Seng Index and a 1.71% rise in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [8] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a slight decline of 1.38%, indicating volatility within the technology sector [8] - Leading sectors included energy (7.44%), real estate and construction (5.71%), and finance (5.3%), while information technology and healthcare sectors saw slight declines [8] - The market exhibited complex and differentiated characteristics, with a rebound in property stocks due to rising policy expectations, while gold and non-ferrous metal stocks experienced significant fluctuations influenced by international gold price volatility [8] - Despite a slight decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index, certain AI concept stocks like Baidu and Alibaba remained active due to advancements in AI chips, highlighting the sustained appeal of AI as a long-term driver [8] Outlook for Hong Kong Market - The outlook for the Hong Kong market suggests a potential continuation of structural upward trends, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and a recovery in A-share sentiment [9] - Continued improvement in AI demand is expected to benefit the technology sector in Hong Kong, although investors should remain cautious of external policy uncertainties and consider a prudent allocation strategy, focusing on high-dividend assets and sectors with both profitability improvement and growth potential [9]

总量排名基本稳定，只有重庆超越辽宁发生变动 在广东和新疆统计局30日发布了去年经济数据之后，全国31个省份去年GDP结果全部揭晓。在总量排名上，31个省份基本上保持稳定，只有重庆超越辽宁发 生变动；在经济增速上，西藏继续领跑全国。 西藏领跑 1月29日，西藏统计局发布，2025年，全区实现生产总值3031.89亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长7.0%，增速连续四个季度位居全国前列。 梳理全国各省份经济增速，西藏、甘肃、河南和河北增速位居前三位，分别增长了7.0%、5.8%、5.6%和5.6%。而这些省份高速增长的原因分别代表了当前 经济4个发动机，大基建、资源开发和新能源汽车等制造业。 省份 ■ GDP (万亿元) 广东 14.58 江苏 14.24 10.32 山东 9.45 浙江 四川 6.77 河南 6.66 湖北 6.27 6.02 福建 上海 5.67 | 湖南 | 5.53 | | --- | --- | | 安徽 | 5.30 | | 北京 | 5.21 | | 河北 | 4.93 | | 陕西 | 3.66 | | 江西 | 3.60 | | 重庆 3.38 | | | 辽宁 | 3.32 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced extreme volatility, with a significant price increase over the past year followed by a dramatic single-day drop of 35%, highlighting the unpredictable nature of silver as an investment [3][27][40]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The silver market is characterized by its dual nature, possessing both industrial and precious metal attributes, making it difficult to predict price movements [31]. - The supply side of silver is rigid, with 30% sourced from primary silver mines and 70% from by-product mining, leading to slow responses to price changes [9][33]. - Demand for silver is highly variable, with total demand projected to grow from 30,892 tons in 2016 to 35,713 tons in 2025, driven primarily by the photovoltaic sector [9][33]. Group 2: Demand Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see the most significant growth in silver demand, increasing from 2,538 tons in 2016 to 7,560 tons in 2025, marking it as the largest contributor to demand growth [9][33]. - Investment demand for silver is the most volatile segment, with a projected decrease from 6,622 tons in 2016 to 6,357 tons in 2025, despite a peak of over 10,000 tons in 2022 [9][33]. Group 3: Recent Price Movements - The recent sharp decline in silver prices can be attributed to a combination of high leverage among long positions and a decrease in expectations for short squeezes, alongside tightening policies from exchanges [14][38]. - The market has seen a significant shift in sentiment, with the expectation of a bullish trend dissipating due to increased costs and risks associated with maintaining long positions [39]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The outlook for silver demand in 2026 is uncertain, particularly due to anticipated declines in photovoltaic installations and the inherent volatility of investment demand [11][37]. - The silver market is expected to experience further fluctuations, with potential for both sharp declines and subsequent rebounds, necessitating a focus on short-term trading strategies [46][49].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced overall pressure this week, with most major indices showing a pullback, particularly in small-cap and growth styles, while large-cap blue chips demonstrated relative resilience [2][3] - Market sentiment is cautious, with funds shifting towards low-volatility and defensive sectors [2] Index Performance - The majority of A-share indices showed a pattern of "mostly down, few up," with significant pressure on small-cap and growth indices, while large-cap blue chips provided some support against downward pressure [3][7] - Weekly index performance indicated a clear divergence, with defensive sectors and energy stocks leading gains, while previously high-performing growth and manufacturing sectors faced notable corrections [9][10] Sector Rotation - The energy sector emerged as a strong performer, with significant contributions from gold and energy-related stocks, while essential consumer sectors also showed relative stability, reflecting a defensive allocation of funds [9][10] - Conversely, sectors associated with growth and manufacturing saw substantial declines, indicating a clear rotation in industry performance [17][18] Trading Activity - A-share trading volume increased significantly, reaching 8,944.21 billion shares and a transaction value of 15.31 trillion yuan, marking a week-on-week growth of 12.56% and 9.44% respectively [23][25] - Despite the increase in volume, the trading structure showed a "high at the beginning, low later" trend, indicating weak enthusiasm for chasing prices [23] Fund Flow - Main funds continued to show a net outflow, totaling approximately 2,644.24 billion yuan, reflecting an overall cautious market sentiment [30] - Financial sectors attracted net inflows, while cyclical and growth sectors like materials and information technology faced reductions [31][36] Market Sentiment - The overall "profit-making effect" in the market weakened, with fluctuations in the number of stocks hitting the daily limit, indicating a cautious but optimistic sentiment with increasing divergence [40][44] - The average margin balance remained stable at 27.3 trillion yuan, suggesting a cautious approach among investors [44] Upcoming Focus - Upcoming IPOs and stock unlocks are expected to influence market sentiment, particularly in sectors like semiconductor equipment and magnetic materials [48][49]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月31日 港股投资周报 金融股领涨，港股精选组合年内上涨 7.92% 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益 0.49%，相对恒生指数超额收益-1.89%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 7.92%，相对恒生指数超额收益 1.07%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，中国秦发等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期板块，其次为科技、消费、制 造和大金融板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周港股通 50 指数收益最高，累计收益 2.78%；恒生科技 指数收益最低，累计收益-1.38%。 行业指数方面，本周能源业行业收益最高，累计收益 7.44%；医疗保健业行 业收益最低，累计收益-2.72%。 概念板块方面，本周安防监控指数概念板块收益最高，累计收益 27.50%； 卫星导航指数概念板块收益最低，累计收益-9.93%。 金融工程·数量化投资 | ...

连建明 2026年头一个月，A股走势让许多股民感到犹如"坐过山车"，好在主要指数月K线都收阳，为全年开了 好头。不过，周五的大幅震荡也在提示市场风险悄悄降临，展望未来，慢牛行情有望持续，但风险也需 提高警惕。 再细看个股方面，上涨股票数量远多于下跌股票。1月份上涨股票3800只，下跌股票1300多只。聚焦热 点板块，既有去年的"老明星"，又有今年出现的"新贵"，通过1月份净申购的ETF就能看出，净申购前 几名分别是有色金属ETF、化工ETF、电网设备ETF、黄金ETF等，这些板块几乎是本月涨幅最大的板 块，涨幅最大的是有色和黄金板块，黄金板块涨幅高达40%，这当然与本月黄金价格暴涨有关，但风险 也在显现，1月最后一个交易日由于黄金出现震荡，A股中的黄金类企业股票大幅下跌，很多股票跌 停。至于去年最热门的科技股尤其是半导体、人工智能板块热度还在延续，人工智能从去年炒硬件转为 AI应用，导致软件和传媒板块大涨，中证传媒指数1月份涨幅为22%。卫星和电网设备去年12月份就开 始成为热点，今年1月份炒作延续，但下半月出现明显回调。化工板块则是1月份异军突起的板块，表现 突出。 1月份还有一个显著特点，就是大盘股、小盘 ...