Group 1 - The top 20 stocks with significant capital inflow as of February 9 include Jiecheng Co., Xinyi Technology, and China Duty Free, with inflows of 8.37 billion, 7.39 billion, and 6.84 billion respectively [1] - Jiecheng Co. experienced a price increase of 19.93%, while Tianfu Communication saw an increase of 18.24%, indicating strong market interest in these stocks [2] - Other notable stocks include Zhongwen Online with a 20% increase and TCL Zhonghuan with a 9.98% increase, both attracting substantial capital inflow [2][3] Group 2 - The sectors represented by the top inflow stocks include cultural transmission, telecommunications, tourism, and photovoltaic equipment, highlighting diverse investment interests [2][3] - Companies like China Ping An and Zijin Mining also attracted significant inflows, with 4.76 billion and 4.65 billion respectively, indicating continued investor confidence in the insurance and non-ferrous metals sectors [2][3] - The overall trend shows a strong interest in technology and renewable energy sectors, as evidenced by the performance of companies like Industrial Fulian and Sunshine Power [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价走弱，周一更是跌停，直接下跌超万元每吨，现货观望情绪浓重，贸易商待假情 绪上升，随着镍价进一步下探，下游有部分采购入场。供应方面，1月产量继续上升，国内库存继续垒 加，LME小幅回落，市场供应充足。产业链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，印尼强需求和国内成本倒挂成交 冷清形成鲜明对比。镍铁价格开始回落，成本线下移。不锈钢库存继续回升，短期或成为价格压力。 新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货135800，基差3960，偏多 3、库存：LME库存285282，-792，上交所仓单51274，+810，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力 ...

Group 1 - Copper prices continue to rise, with domestic commodity futures opening with Shanghai copper up over 2%. Last week, LME metal futures closed higher, with LME copper rising by $91 to $12,994 per ton and LME aluminum rising by $58 to $3,085 per ton [1] - According to Huayuan Securities, in the medium to long term, insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply-side disruptions may shift the copper supply-demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage. Additionally, the profit cycle for copper smelting is expected to bottom out amid a "de-involution" backdrop, and with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, copper prices are likely to break upward [1] - In the context of copper prices reaching historical highs, the process of "aluminum replacing copper" in the air conditioning and home appliance sectors may accelerate. Furthermore, the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones is expected to continue until 2026, which may lead to an increase in demand for electrolytic aluminum [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, China Aluminum, and others, collectively accounting for 55.71% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - As of February 6, the market's latest financing balance is 26,470.46 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 17.021 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with all primary industry financing balances declining [1] Industry Summary - The financing balances in the non-ferrous metals, electric power equipment, and communication sectors saw significant reductions, decreasing by 20.52 billion yuan, 20.46 billion yuan, and 15.94 billion yuan respectively [1] - The industries with the largest percentage declines in financing balance include petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, and non-ferrous metals, with latest financing balances of 228.49 billion yuan, 151.77 billion yuan, and 1,474.51 billion yuan, reflecting decreases of 2.00%, 1.77%, and 1.37% respectively [1] - The detailed financing balance changes by industry on February 6 are as follows: - Beauty Care: 68.62 billion yuan, down 0.13 billion yuan (-0.20%) - Comprehensive: 50.02 billion yuan, down 0.25 billion yuan (-0.49%) - Textile and Apparel: 87.75 billion yuan, down 0.66 billion yuan (-0.74%) - Social Services: 133.08 billion yuan, down 0.66 billion yuan (-0.49%) - Steel: 173.02 billion yuan, down 0.87 billion yuan (-0.50%) - Transportation: 421.26 billion yuan, down 0.92 billion yuan (-0.22%) - Environmental Protection: 201.00 billion yuan, down 1.47 billion yuan (-0.72%) - Retail: 277.67 billion yuan, down 1.51 billion yuan (-0.54%) - Building Materials: 140.12 billion yuan, down 1.62 billion yuan (-1.14%) - Building Decoration: 431.15 billion yuan, down 1.96 billion yuan (-0.45%) - Light Industry Manufacturing: 144.81 billion yuan, down 2.01 billion yuan (-1.37%) - Coal: 151.77 billion yuan, down 2.74 billion yuan (-1.77%) - Home Appliances: 386.69 billion yuan, down 3.00 billion yuan (-0.77%) - Food and Beverage: 521.51 billion yuan, down 3.23 billion yuan (-0.62%) - Public Utilities: 567.60 billion yuan, down 3.34 billion yuan (-0.58%) - Real Estate: 361.25 billion yuan, down 3.36 billion yuan (-0.92%) - Automotive: 1,222.02 billion yuan, down 3.50 billion yuan (-0.29%) - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: 304.82 billion yuan, down 4.05 billion yuan (-1.31%) - Petroleum and Petrochemicals: 228.49 billion yuan, down 4.65 billion yuan (-2.00%) - Banking: 817.58 billion yuan, down 5.57 billion yuan (-0.68%) - Non-Banking Financial: 1,989.78 billion yuan, down 5.99 billion yuan (-0.30%) - Computer: 1,855.44 billion yuan, down 6.12 billion yuan (-0.33%) - Defense and Military Industry: 1,010.67 billion yuan, down 6.23 billion yuan (-0.61%) - Media: 570.34 billion yuan, down 7.46 billion yuan (-1.29%) - Electronics: 3,892.55 billion yuan, down 8.10 billion yuan (-0.21%) - Machinery and Equipment: 1,374.28 billion yuan, down 8.71 billion yuan (-0.63%) - Basic Chemicals: 1,038.16 billion yuan, down 10.48 billion yuan (-1.00%) - Pharmaceutical and Biological: 1,661.59 billion yuan, down 11.83 billion yuan (-0.71%) - Communication: 1,313.04 billion yuan, down 15.94 billion yuan (-1.20%) - Electric Power Equipment: 2,339.86 billion yuan, down 20.46 billion yuan (-0.87%) - Non-Ferrous Metals: 1,474.51 billion yuan, down 20.52 billion yuan (-1.37%) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Negative Outlook**: Copper, iron ore, p-xylene, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PVC [8][47][71][83][86][131] - **Neutral Outlook**: Gold, silver, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, log, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, pure benzene, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, eggs, peanuts [5][11][15][18][25][28][32][39][44][51][56][60][64][66][114][116][122][123][134][136][145][148][153][157][160][163][167][172][181] - **Positive Outlook**: None 2. Core Views - The report provides an in - depth analysis of various commodities, including their price trends, supply - demand relationships, and market news. It emphasizes the importance of considering macro - economic factors, industry policies, and geopolitical events when evaluating investment opportunities in the commodity market. For example, factors such as international trade agreements, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions can significantly impact commodity prices [7][12][31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to rebound in a volatile manner, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for the fifteenth consecutive month [5][7]. - **Silver**: Likely to decline from its high level [5]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum is expected to recover in a volatile state, while palladium rebounds following the precious metals sector [28]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Trading is cautious, and prices are volatile. Industry news includes potential changes in copper resource reserves and production adjustments by major companies [8][10]. - **Zinc**: Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are volatile [15]. - **Tin**: Prices are in a consolidation phase [18]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory reduction. Alumina prices are expected to converge in a volatile manner, and cast aluminum alloy prices follow those of electrolytic aluminum [25]. - **Nickel**: Affected by pre - holiday capital outflows, the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and cost support has shifted upwards [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: The report does not directly cover crude oil, but related products such as fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are analyzed. Fuel oil is in a narrow - range adjustment, and the short - term weakness has eased. Low - sulfur fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels continues to decline [134]. - **Chemicals**: PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with a weakening monthly spread. PTA is in a range - bound market, and MEG requires range - bound operations. Synthetic rubber is under pressure and volatile. LLDPE has a narrowing import window and is in a pre - holiday volatile market. PP has limited valuation repair, and export weekly orders are declining. Caustic soda has rising costs and a low valuation [71][83][86][89][92]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Related Products**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. The spot market for soybeans is gradually entering the holiday mode, and the futures price is volatile [157]. - **Corn**: The decline is expected to be limited [160]. - **Sugar**: Prices are in a narrow - range consolidation [163]. - **Cotton**: Prices are expected to remain volatile before the holiday [167]. - **Eggs**: Prices are in an oscillatory adjustment [172]. - **Hogs**: The peak season is confirmed to be weak, and the release of the "backlog" has begun [176]. - **Peanuts**: Prices are in an oscillatory state [181]. Others - **Iron Ore**: Stockpiling is nearing completion, and demand expectations are weakening [47]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand has weakened month - on - month, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation [51][52]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices are in a wide - range oscillation [56]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are in a high - level oscillation [60]. - **Thermal Coal**: Prices are expected to remain stable before the holiday [64]. - **Log**: Port arrivals are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [66]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is oscillatory [136]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips**: The short - term market is oscillatory [145]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short positions should stop losses and exit [148]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are in a strong and volatile state [153].

半导体板块反弹，澜起科技上市首日高开57%，兆易创新、纳芯微涨超4%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅, | | --- | --- | --- | | 澜起科技 | 168.000 | 57.17% | | QPL INT'L | 0.430 | 7.50% | | 华虹米导体 | 103.800 | 4.58% | | 兆易创新 | 294.000 | 4.33% | | 纳芯微 | 142.000 | 4.26% | | 英诺赛科 | 55.700 | 3.15% | | 中芯国际 | 69.600 | 2.96% | | 天数智芯 | 170.000 | 2.91% | | 中电华大科技 | 1.330 | 2.31% | | 豪威集团 | 107.000 | 2.10% | | 天岳先进 | 58.500 | 2.09% | | 峰昭科技 | 133.000 | 1.76% | | 壁仞科技 | 32.280 | 1.57% | 有色金属板块回暖，中国白银集团、中广核矿业、紫金黄金国际、万国黄金集团均涨超4%。 | | | 2月9日，香港恒生指数高开1.59%，恒生科技指数涨1.9%。 | 代码 | ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of various ETFs, highlighting the resilience of the chemical and non-ferrous metal sectors amidst market fluctuations [5][19]. Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have percentile PE ratios of 98.89%, 91.35%, and 46.11% respectively, indicating a high valuation environment [1]. - The chemical ETF (516020) increased by 2.37%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) rose by 0.18%, showcasing sector resilience [17][19]. Sector Performance - The top three sectors with net inflows include: - Electric Power Equipment: 2.522 billion - Basic Chemicals: 2.065 billion - Machinery: 0.805 billion [2][11] - The sectors with the highest net outflows are: - Communication: -4.440 billion - Media: -4.133 billion - Computers: -3.133 billion [2][11]. ETF Performance - The following ETFs showed notable performance: - Chemical ETF: 2.37% increase, with a 6-month performance of 44.66% [14]. - Green Energy ETF: 1.51% increase, with a 6-month performance of 35.35% [14]. - New Materials ETF: 1.32% increase, with a 6-month performance of 38.61% [14]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF has been identified as part of a long-term investment strategy, with expectations of high profitability lasting 3-5 years due to supply-demand mismatches and macroeconomic support [19]. Institutional Insights - Guotai Junan Securities continues to favor investment opportunities in the chemical sector, recommending focus on leading companies and price recovery products [19]. - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to maintain high profitability driven by macroeconomic factors and industry upgrades [19].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a small wave adjustment, with overall profitability effects and growth relative value profitability effects retreating to historically high levels. A rebound is possible, but further confirmation of the lower boundary of the fluctuation range may still be needed [2][3]. Short-term Market Analysis - The short-term low cost-effectiveness is no longer extreme, and the rapid adjustment phase may have passed. However, the rebound power based on market forces remains limited. Effective rebounds will require new catalysts and highlights to open up upward space in the market [2][3]. - The overall PE valuation of A-shares is also at historical high levels, indicating a potential transition from an upward phase to a consolidation phase as valuations reach historical peaks [3]. Medium-term Market Positioning - The current market is still in the first phase of an upward trend, with expectations for a "two-stage upward market" where the second stage will be initiated after confirming the lower boundary of the fluctuation range. This phase is characterized by waiting for further industrial trends and easing cost-effectiveness issues [4][5]. - The market has shown alternating structural main lines since September 2025, with several sectors reaching historical high valuations, leading to a horizontal consolidation phase [3]. Investment Opportunities - Four high-certainty judgments for medium-term opportunities include: 1. The primary market venture capital financing has bottomed out and is recovering, indicating a potential trend [5]. 2. The AI industry trend has clear space for growth, with ongoing advancements in AI applications validating the trend [6]. 3. Short-term cyclical Alpha logic is concentrated, but there are still significant discrepancies in cyclical Beta expectations domestically and internationally [6]. 4. The impact of the U.S. "devirtualization" and "broad credit" policies may lead to improved external demand expectations [7]. Sector Performance Indicators - The profitability effect indicators show a contraction in several sectors, including oil and petrochemicals (83% down 7%), basic chemicals (77% down 3%), and non-ferrous metals (71% down 12%). However, sectors like light industry manufacturing (69% up 5%) and electric power equipment (67% up 7%) are continuing to expand [10]. - The overall A-share market shows a profitability effect of 59%, indicating a comprehensive contraction, while sectors like food and beverage (52% up 13%) and household appliances (48% up 9%) are experiencing expansion [10]. ETF Market Insights - Various ETFs are showing different performance metrics, with the Huatai Baichuan Zhongzheng Photovoltaic Industry ETF at 99.83 million shares, reflecting a 0.8% change, while the Fuguo Zhongzheng Innovative Drug Industry ETF has 144.40 million shares, with a 0.9% change [11].

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a volatile decline, with Wind All A Index dropping by 1.49% and average daily trading volume decreasing to 2.4 billion yuan [3] - The major indices such as CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 fell by 2.46%, 2.68%, 1.33%, and 0.93% respectively, primarily due to pullbacks in the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors [3] - There is a strong bearish sentiment in the market, indicated by a weekly decrease in financing balance by 43.2 billion yuan to 2.65 billion yuan and an increase in implied volatility for options [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The logic supporting the strength of the technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains unchanged, contributing to improved productivity and asset returns in the equity market [3] - The cyclical themes are more sensitive to inflation indicators, suggesting that systematic opportunities may arise only after inflation metrics stabilize [3] - The recent style shift in the market is viewed as a result of declining risk appetite rather than a signal of a change in market themes [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a strong performance driven by a decline in PMI data and the central bank's resumption of reverse repos, leading to a marginal easing of liquidity [5][19] - As of February 6, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds were recorded at 1.36%, 1.56%, 1.81%, and 2.25% respectively, reflecting slight decreases from January 30 [5][19] - The government issued 4.393 billion yuan in bonds this week, with a net issuance of 1.976 billion yuan, indicating a focus on managing debt levels [20] Group 4: Local Government Economic Targets - Over 60% of local governments adjusted their GDP growth targets for the year, with many setting targets around 5%, indicating a shift towards structural adjustments rather than short-term growth [22] - In terms of retail sales growth, 15 out of 21 provinces lowered their targets, with most reductions around 1% [22] - Investment targets were also adjusted, with 13 out of 18 provinces lowering their fixed asset investment growth goals, emphasizing structural optimization over expansion [22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of copper prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiment and liquidity conditions, with both domestic and international copper prices rising over 2% [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai copper opened higher in the morning, with both domestic and international copper prices increasing by over 2% [2] - On Friday, the decline in U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies negatively impacted market sentiment, causing Shanghai copper to briefly fall below the 100,000 yuan mark [2] - Following a stabilization in U.S. tech stocks, concerns over market liquidity eased, leading to an improvement in risk appetite and a rebound in precious metals, which also positively influenced copper prices [2]