Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market has shown strong performance with multiple hotspots driving the market upward, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day winning streak, which has boosted investor confidence and mitigated pre-holiday risk aversion [2][3][8] - The report highlights that the market's trading volume has slightly increased, approaching 2 trillion, reflecting optimistic expectations for the post-holiday market [2][8] - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD has enhanced the domestic market's attractiveness to foreign capital, while macro policy has more operational space, contributing to positive news across various sectors such as commercial aviation, 6G, small metals, and batteries [2][8] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the A-share market's performance is critical post-holiday, with the current market showing signs of recovery, although trading volume remains below August highs, and some funds are still in a wait-and-see mode [3][10] - It suggests that the market's ability to break through previous highs after the New Year will be a key focus, with ongoing policy support expected to favor the equity market [10][12] - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" for A-share allocation, suggesting that investors should follow hot sectors like telecommunications, batteries, and commercial aviation while maintaining some cash reserves to wait for post-holiday trends [13] Group 3 - The bond market has shown a rare independent upward trend, with expectations of continued volatility, as the report notes that the bond market is in a phase of downward support but upward resistance [4][38] - It indicates that without significant positive news, the bond market is likely to remain in a range-bound state for the foreseeable future [5][38] Group 4 - The commodity market has experienced an upward trend, particularly in precious metals, with silver prices reaching new highs and gold prices also increasing, which is expected to continue in the medium to long term due to the decoupling from the USD [46][47] - The report suggests maintaining positions in gold as it is anticipated to lead the commodity market's strength [47]

本文来源：时代财经 作者：何秀兰 港股走强的背后，是资金、政策与制度的三重红利共振。南向资金作为 "压舱石"，年内净流入超 1.3 万亿元；制度层面，港交所于5月推出 "科企专线"，允许硬科技与生物科技企业保密递表，叠加18C章上市通道高效落地，制度红利推动港股IPO市场强势回暖。截至12月29日，港 交所年内IPO合计募资近2800亿港元，同比增长224.38%，助推港交所重回全球交易所募资榜首。 盘古智库高级研究员余丰慧向时代财经表示，2025年港股估值修复的核心驱动力主要来源于资金宽松、国内经济复苏预期增强以及政策支持。 特别是南向资金的持续流入，加上人民币汇率稳定，增强了市场信心。此外，新能源汽车、人工智能等产业的发展也促进了相关板块的业绩和 估值扩张。 图源：图虫创意 核心指数领涨全球，资金面共振推动港股复苏 2025年，港股核心指数集体爆发，全年表现领跑全球主要资本市场。 从具体表现来看，截至12月29日收盘，恒生指数从年初约19600点攀升至25635点，全年涨幅近28%；恒生科技指数同步走高，涨幅近23%；恒 生国企指数全年涨幅近22%，反映出央企国企板块的估值重塑成效。这一表现不仅创下港股五 ...

Key Points - China will implement a temporary import tariff lower than the most-favored-nation rate on 935 items starting January 1, 2026, to enhance the linkage between domestic and international markets and expand the supply of quality goods [3] - The People's Bank of China announced that a new generation of digital RMB framework, management system, operational mechanism, and ecosystem will officially launch on January 1, 2026, marking a significant adjustment as digital RMB transitions from a digital cash era to a digital deposit currency era [3] - From January to November, state-owned enterprises reported total operating revenue of 75,625.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, while total profits decreased by 3.1% to 3,719.45 billion yuan [3] - The State Council Tariff Commission released a tariff adjustment plan for 2026, increasing the total number of tariff items to 8,972 [3] - The international silver price experienced significant volatility, briefly surpassing $83 per ounce before quickly declining, with platinum and palladium also seeing substantial drops [3]

Market Overview - The market has experienced a nine-day consecutive rise, starting from 3815, but the latest candlestick indicates a weakening momentum, forming a doji with a long upper shadow, suggesting increased selling pressure and potential profit-taking [1] - The current question is whether this upward trend has ended and if the market will enter a correction phase or continue to rise after some fluctuations [1] Technical Analysis - A strong adjustment would be characterized by a shallow decline, allowing the market to continue rising and potentially reach new highs. The critical resistance level is identified at 3936, where a consolidation above this level could lead to further upward movement towards 4000 [2] - If the market breaks below 3936, a stronger correction is expected, leading to a decline below the 5-day moving average and a longer consolidation period. However, the overall trend remains upward as a short-term upward trend has already formed [3] Sector Performance - The market is currently in a broad upward consolidation phase, with sector performance being more critical than the overall index. Notable active sectors include carbon fiber, robotics, and commercial aerospace, which have shown strong performance [4] - The robotics sector, particularly humanoid robots, has surpassed previous highs and is expected to continue upward, although caution is advised regarding potential pullbacks for better entry points [4] - The market has seen volatility due to futures trading, impacting individual stocks, particularly in the lithium battery and resource sectors, which experienced significant declines [4]

每经AI快讯，12月29日，美股白银股盘前下跌，此前该贵金属在首次突破每盎司80美元后急剧回落。 科尔矿业跌3.5%，赫克拉矿业跌3.3%，First Majestic白银跌3%，泛美白银跌2.4%，希尔威金属矿业跌 2.3%，Endeavour Silver跌2.1%。 ...

12月29日，近期白银价格出现剧烈波动，其走势呈现出类似比特币的特征。ZFX山海证券认为，这主要 受市场对降息预期和工业需求变化的双重影响。白银在周末交易中表现出极高的波动性，短时间内价格 快速拉升又迅速回落，这显示出贵金属市场短期内存在明显投机活跃，投资者情绪波动加剧。相比传统 贵金属，白银的交易特征正在呈现出加密资产的高频波动模式。 12月29日，近期白银价格出现剧烈波动，其走势呈现出类似比特币的特征。ZFX山海证券认为，这主要 受市场对降息预期和工业需求变化的双重影响。白银在周末交易中表现出极高的波动性，短时间内价格 快速拉升又迅速回落，这显示出贵金属市场短期内存在明显投机活跃，投资者情绪波动加剧。相比传统 贵金属，白银的交易特征正在呈现出加密资产的高频波动模式。 据市场观察，白银在周日一度触及約84美元的新高，同时黄金价格也被推升至約4530美元。ZFX山海证 券表示，白银的波动在短短一个小时内尤为剧烈——当地时间下午6点20分，白银期货开盘仅20分钟便 飙升至83.75美元，涨幅达6%；而到7点30分，价格又迅速回落至75.15美元，蒸发约10%的价值。这种 行情反映出市场对利率变化和美元走势的敏感 ...

Group 1: Silver Price Surge - The price of silver has surpassed $74 per ounce, exceeding the price of crude oil for the first time in 45 years, driven by strong demand and structural supply constraints [1][2] - Silver's price increase is attributed to both investment demand and industrial applications, particularly in clean energy sectors like solar panels and electric vehicles [2][7] - The current silver market is characterized by a significant supply constraint, as global pure silver deposits are nearly depleted, leading to silver being produced as a byproduct of mining other metals [11] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Investment Behavior - The industrial demand for silver is robust, with the solar industry consuming nearly 30% of the global annual silver production, highlighting a structural demand gap [8] - Investment behavior is shifting, with some investors turning to silver as a more affordable alternative to gold, especially as gold prices rise above $4,500 per ounce [9] - The ETF market reflects this trend, with iShares Silver Trust showing a significant price advantage over SPDR Gold ETF, attracting funds into the silver sector [10] Group 3: Oil Market Challenges - The global oil market is facing a supply surplus and structural demand transformation, with international oil prices having dropped 21% since 2025, reaching low levels post-pandemic recovery [3][14] - Analysts predict that unless major oil-producing countries coordinate substantial production cuts, the oversupply situation in the global oil market will worsen [14] - Geopolitical stability could further exacerbate supply-demand imbalances by releasing more oil production capacity [15]

央视财经12月29日报道，由于近期贵金属和工业金属期货价格快速上涨，大幅波动风险加剧，美国芝商 所集团宣布全线上调包括金、银、钯金、锂等在内的金属期货交易保证金。新规将于当地时间本周一收 盘后生效，其中，黄金期货保证金上调10%，白银期货上调约13.6%，铂金上调约23%。 芝商所上调保证金曾导致银价大跌 分析人士指出，CME提高保证金的操作让人们回想到了历史上的相似情形。 但也有分析人士认为和以往投机驱动的周期不同，支撑此轮白银涨势的不仅因为白银是贵金属里相对可 负担的一种投资品，还因为它在工业领域具有不可替代性，就连马斯克也对此发声。近期，马斯克在旗 下社交平台X上针对银价上涨的现象发文称：这可不好，白银被用于许多工业生产环节。 纽商所明年2月交割的黄金期价报每盎司4497.9美元，跌幅为1.20%； 3月交割的白银期价报每盎司75.930美元，跌幅为1.65%； 1月交割的铂金期价报每盎司2323.6美元，跌幅为5.98%； 3月交割的钯金期价报每盎司1839.0美元，跌幅为9.11%； 3月交割的铜期价报每盎司5.773美元，跌幅为1.17%。 上世纪80年代左右，美国亨特兄弟试图通过囤积垄断白银市场 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日现货白银上演极端波动行情：开盘暴力拉升突破 80 美元 / 盎司关口，迅速触及 83 美元 / 盎司，日内涨幅一度超 5%，年内累计涨幅扩大至 52 美元；但随后 30 分钟内大幅跳水逾 6 美 元，日内振幅达 9 美元，最新报 76.5 美元 / 盎司，跌幅超 3%。同期，现货黄金高开逼近 4550 美元 / 盎 司新高后回落，跌破 4500 美元关口至 4497 美元 / 盎司。 此次异动并非偶然，Wmax拆解数据后明确三大核心驱动：一是地缘政治升级、美元弱势延续为贵金属 提供底层支撑，契合年末历史涨势规律；二是年末流动性稀薄加剧短期走势偏离基本面；三是白银纸货 与实物供需错配，Wmax供需模型验证显示实物库存难以满足交割需求，叠加美国关键矿产进口调查可 能引发贸易限制，进一步激化市场争夺。值得注意的是，Wmax风险预警系统已捕捉短期回调信号，贵 金属高位下短期投资者获利了结意愿升温，瑞银提示的交易风险与Wmax测算的"高位波动率阈值"共 振，成为白银大幅跳水的重要诱因。 2026 年贵金属走强的结构性支撑 Wmax结合宏观经济模型与行业数据推演，识别出2026年贵金属市场 ...

Group 1 - The overall trading pace in the market remains restrained due to the year-end holiday effects, but liquidity has improved compared to previous periods [1] - Gold and silver prices have experienced a pullback after reaching historical highs, indicating a phase of profit-taking and market consolidation [1] - The U.S. dollar index is maintaining a low range, showing limited volatility in major non-U.S. currencies, which has not provided clear direction for precious metals [1] Group 2 - Despite short-term pressure, gold has seen a cumulative increase of nearly 70% in 2025, marking its best annual performance since the late 1970s [2] - Trump's comments regarding the next Federal Reserve chair maintaining a low interest rate stance have reignited discussions about policy independence and future monetary paths, reinforcing the long-term value of traditional safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The Bank of Japan's recent monetary policy meeting highlighted concerns over inflation risks, although market expectations for actual policy changes remain cautious [2] Group 3 - Technically, gold prices are holding above the 100-day exponential moving average, with the Bollinger Bands indicating an ongoing upward structure [3] - Key resistance for gold is noted at $4550, with potential upward movement towards the psychological level of $4600 if trading volume supports it; initial support is at $4430 [3] - The current pullback in gold prices is viewed as a structural consolidation rather than a reversal of fundamental logic, with market focus shifting to Federal Reserve policy signals and global risk sentiment [3]