Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to profitability, indicating a potential new cycle as production expansion comes to an end and policies are gradually implemented [1][7]. Industry Challenges - Since 2022, the chemical industry has faced price declines and increased competition, leading to many companies experiencing revenue growth without profit [2]. - Despite domestic demand stabilization from various policies, supply-side competition has intensified, resulting in lower product prices and utilization rates, which has kept overall profit levels low [2][3]. Current Industry Position - The bottom position of the industry appears to be well-defined, with high concentration in most sub-industries limiting further optimization through concentration increases [3]. - The driving force of the chemical market is shifting from demand stimulation to supply-side reform, necessitating a focus on optimizing supply-demand dynamics for high-quality development [3]. Self-Regulation and Policy Coordination - The current phase of the chemical industry's anti-involution process is at the initial stage of policy and industry assessment, with industry associations promoting self-regulation among companies [4]. - Historical experiences suggest that self-regulation effects are often short-lived, and temporary production cuts can lead to a rebound in operating rates, returning to a supply surplus situation [4]. Specific Industry Insights - The polyester filament industry is entering a period of slow capacity growth, with profitability improvements driven by policies to eliminate about 10% of outdated capacity and joint production cuts by leading companies [5]. - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen no new capacity in the past five years, maintaining a stable supply-demand balance, with strict carbon emission policies curbing new capacity as a driving factor [5][6]. Future Industry Outlook - The anti-involution direction for the chemical industry is clear, with a shift towards profitability through capacity elimination and enhanced self-regulation [7]. - The industry is currently in a policy vacuum, but as more policies are implemented, the issues of internal competition are expected to improve [7]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in major sectors like petrochemicals and coal chemicals, with a focus on leading companies in these areas [7][8].

Macro Insights - The US July CPI shows a moderate increase, with core CPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with market expectations, alleviating concerns about significant inflation rebound [2] - The core CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%, slightly above the expected 3.0% [2] - The market anticipates a 96% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, influenced by the manageable inflation pressures from tariffs [2] Fixed Income Insights - AI is becoming a central theme in the market, impacting investment, employment, and asset prices, leading to a structural divergence in stock performance [3] - The report suggests that AI could enhance labor productivity, potentially leading to a scenario where stock market performance outpaces GDP and employment growth [3] - Long-term, AI may alleviate debt pressures but could also exacerbate income and opportunity disparities [3] Energy Sector Insights - National electricity generation in July is estimated to increase by 3.2% year-on-year to 924.9 billion kWh, with coal, hydro, and renewable energy sources contributing differently [4] - The report anticipates a positive growth momentum for thermal power generation despite some pressure from hydroelectric output recovery [4] Banking Sector Insights - The introduction of a personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy aims to stimulate domestic demand, with a 1% annual subsidy rate [5] - Major banks are responding positively to the subsidy policy, indicating a favorable outlook for structural opportunities in the banking sector [5] Company-Specific Insights - Wanchen Group (300972 CH) is accelerating the acquisition of minority shareholder equity, with stable earnings in April and May, leading to an upgraded target price of 212.66 CNY and a "Buy" rating [7] - Guizhou Moutai (600519 CH) reported a 9.2% year-on-year increase in total revenue for H1 2025, indicating a solid foundation for achieving its annual growth target [11] - Pengding Holdings (002938 CH) is focusing on AI-related capacity investments, with a revenue increase of 24.75% year-on-year in H1 2025, leading to an upgraded target price of 69.2 CNY [12] - Desay SV (002920 CH) benefited from the smart driving trend, achieving a 25.25% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025, with a positive outlook for future growth [17] - City Development Environment (000885 CH) reported a revenue increase of 11.25% year-on-year in H1 2025, indicating stable growth in waste treatment operations [21]

Core Viewpoint - Dongyue Group (00189) shares rose over 3%, currently up 3.42% at HKD 11.79, with a trading volume of HKD 81.084 million [1] Group 1: Refrigerant Prices and Market Dynamics - Despite a year-on-year decline in air conditioning production since July, refrigerant prices continue to rise, with the latest R32 enterprise price approaching CNY 60,000 per ton [1] - The pricing power for refrigerants has shifted from the demand side to the supply side as the third-generation refrigerants enter the quota period, indicating that the seasonal decline in air conditioning demand does not dominate refrigerant price trends [1] - European R32 prices are nearing EUR 20,000 per ton in Q4 2024, suggesting that there is still significant upward potential for refrigerant prices in China, with the "ceiling" for prices remaining distant [1] Group 2: Air Conditioning Market Performance - As the new cooling season approaches at the end of August, although air conditioning production has decreased since July, terminal consumption continues to rise, with offline retail sales in the domestic air conditioning market increasing by 19.63% year-on-year as of mid-July [1] - Online platform retail sales for air conditioning products have seen a year-on-year increase of 26.17%, with retail volume growth reaching 30.28% [1] - Notably, there have been stock shortages in markets such as Northeast and Northwest China, while sales momentum remains optimistic in East and Central China, indicating that production levels are expected to remain high and refrigerant demand may be boosted [1]

Group 1 - Dongyue Group (00189) saw a stock price increase of over 3%, reaching HKD 11.79 with a trading volume of HKD 81.084 million [1] - CICC's report indicates that despite a year-on-year decline in air conditioning production since July, refrigerant prices continue to rise, with the latest R32 price approaching CNY 60,000 per ton [1] - The pricing power of refrigerants has shifted from the demand side to the supply side, as the air conditioning demand enters a seasonal production lull, which does not dominate refrigerant price trends [1] Group 2 - As of mid-July, the offline retail sales of air conditioners in the domestic market increased by 19.63% year-on-year, while online retail sales grew by 26.17% [1] - The retail volume for offline and online platforms also saw significant increases of 16.15% and 30.28% year-on-year, respectively [1] - There have been reports of stock shortages in markets such as Northeast and Northwest China, while sales in East and Central China remain optimistic [1] Group 3 - With the new cooling season approaching at the end of August, despite a decrease in air conditioning production since July, terminal consumption is expected to remain high, leading to sustained high production levels and increased demand for refrigerants [1]

| (%) | | | | | | 股份数量 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 童建国 | | 境内自然人 | | 39.60 | 186,300,199 | | 7,894,736 | | 质押 | | | 26,500,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | 宁波梅山保税港区冰龙投 | | | | | | | | | | | | 5.90 | | 其他 | | | 27,742,400 | | 0 | 无 | | | | 资合伙企业（有限合伙） | | | | | | | | | | | | 中央企业乡村产业投资基 | | | | | | | | | | | | 国有法人 | | | 4.47 | | 21,052,631 | 21,052,631 | | 无 | | | | 金股份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | | | 境内非国有 | | | | | | | | | | | | 浙江星皓投资有限公司 | | | | 4.46 | | 21,000 ...

证券代码：605020 证券简称：永和股份 公告编号：2025-065 债券代码：111007 债券简称：永和转债 二、董事会会议审议情况 （一）审议通过《关于公司 2025 年半年度报告及其摘要的议案》 根据《上市公司信息披露管理办法（2025年修订）》《上海证券交易所股票 上市规则（2025年4月修订）》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指南第六号 ——定期报告（2025年4月修订）》等有关规定，公司编制了《2025年半年度报 告》及《2025年半年度报告摘要》。 表决结果：9票同意，0票反对，0票弃权。 本议案已经公司董事会审计委员会以3票同意、0票反对、0票弃权审议通过， 并同意提交公司董事会审议。 浙江永和制冷股份有限公司 第四届董事会第二十一次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 浙江永和制冷股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第四届董事会第二十一次 会议于 2025 年 8 月 11 日（星期一）以通讯方式召开。会议通知已于 2025 年 8 月 1 日以邮件方式送达各位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The refrigerant market is expected to maintain high demand as the new cooling year approaches, despite a decrease in air conditioning production since July. The overall sales performance remains strong, indicating a potential uplift in refrigerant demand [1][4]. Group 1: Refrigerant Production and Policy - In the first half of 2025, the production of refrigerants R32, R134a, and R125 reached 138,000 tons, 76,000 tons, and 57,000 tons respectively, accounting for approximately 49%, 37%, and 34% of the annual quota [2]. - The export volumes for R32 and R134a in the same period were 40,000 tons and 50,000 tons, representing about 41% and 39% of their respective annual export quotas [2]. - The supply-demand environment for refrigerants in 2025 is relatively balanced, with some varieties being relatively abundant, reducing the necessity for quota increases. The policy regarding refrigerant quotas is expected to remain stable through mid-2026 [2]. Group 2: Refrigerant Pricing Trends - Despite a decline in air conditioning production since July, refrigerant prices continue to rise. The latest corporate quotation for R32 is nearing 60,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The pricing power for refrigerants has shifted from the demand side to the supply side, indicating that the seasonal decline in air conditioning demand does not dominate refrigerant price trends [3]. - Internationally, the price of R32 in Europe approached 20,000 euros per ton in the fourth quarter of 2024, suggesting that there is still significant upward potential for domestic refrigerant prices [3]. Group 3: Air Conditioning Market Performance - As the new cooling year approaches in late August 2025, the retail sales of air conditioning units have shown strong growth. Offline retail sales increased by 19.63% year-on-year, while online sales surged by 26.17% [4]. - The retail volume for air conditioning units also saw a year-on-year increase of 16.15% offline and 30.28% online, with certain regions experiencing stock shortages [4]. - Given the current sales dynamics, air conditioning production is expected to remain high, which will likely boost refrigerant demand [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Following the release of refrigerant companies' performance in the first half of 2025, the sector's valuation has seen a decline. Concerns remain regarding the stability of the policy environment and the potential impact on future refrigerant demand [5]. - The expectation of stable policies in 2025 and 2026, along with the continued rise in refrigerant prices during the off-season, suggests that market expectations may gradually improve, leading to a potential recovery in sector valuations [5]. - Companies in the refrigerant supply chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160.SH), Dongyue Group (00189), and others, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their expected valuation increases [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the refrigerant industry, specifically the transition from third-generation (3rd Gen) to fourth-generation (4th Gen) refrigerants and the implications for companies involved in this sector [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The height and duration of 3rd Gen refrigerants are expected to exceed market expectations, while 4th Gen refrigerants are unlikely to deteriorate quickly, remaining dependent on the 3rd Gen framework [1][4]. - Fluorinated compounds are experiencing increasing demand in new materials due to their superior stability and electrochemical properties, particularly in applications like lithium batteries and high-speed cables [1][5]. - Recent price increases for R32 refrigerant have surpassed market expectations, driven by a year-on-year increase in household air conditioner production, indicating a shift in pricing power towards sellers [1][6]. - The valuation of the refrigerant sector should be viewed from a strategic perspective, as the significant rise in R32 prices suggests that related companies' annualized performance warrants a higher valuation, moving away from the cyclical commodity concept [1][7][8]. - The refrigerant industry is currently optimistic in terms of valuation, with companies gradually shedding cyclical influences, suggesting potential for valuation improvement [1][9]. Future Trends - The price of 3rd Gen refrigerants is expected to continue rising over the next 5 to 10 years due to the immaturity of 4th Gen refrigerants and the lack of substitutes [1][10]. - Although patents for 4th Gen refrigerants will expire, the immature synthesis routes will keep their prices high, indicating a long-term advantage for companies with 3rd Gen capabilities [1][10]. Competitive Landscape - Leading companies that accumulated profits during the golden period of 2nd and 3rd Gen refrigerants are likely to reinvest in R&D, enhancing their core competitiveness in the 4th Gen refrigerant and high-end fluoropolymer markets [2][11]. - The refrigerant industry is characterized by low cost contributions to downstream products, allowing for high price elasticity and a positive price outlook [3]. Investment Considerations - The refrigerant sector is recommended as a strong investment opportunity, with leading companies like Juhua, Sanmei, Yonghe, and Dongyue showing strong competitive advantages and currently trading at low valuations of 9 to 10 times earnings [12]. - The ongoing price increases and the long-term potential for 3rd Gen refrigerant prices to rise without limits, combined with the strong R&D capabilities of leading firms, make this sector worthy of long-term investment focus [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, with specific recommendations for various companies within the sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the recent explosion at Kanto Chemical's factory in Japan, which is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of semiconductor gases [6][7]. - The establishment of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway Company is anticipated to boost demand in the civil explosives sector, with recommendations to focus on companies like Xuefeng Technology and Guangdong Hongda [6]. - The report notes a rise in refrigerant prices, indicating a sustained upward trend in the refrigerant market, with suggested attention on companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyue Group [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgments indicate that non-OPEC countries are expected to lead an increase in oil production, with OPEC+ showing signs of excess production expectations. Global GDP growth is projected at 2.8%, with stable oil demand but some slowdown due to tariff policies [6][7]. - The report mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors, while natural gas export facilities in the U.S. may lead to lower import costs [6][7]. Chemical Sector Analysis - The report provides a detailed analysis of various chemical products, including price movements for PTA, MEG, and various fertilizers, indicating a mixed market environment with some products experiencing price declines [12][13][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the PPI trends and manufacturing PMI, which recorded a decline, reflecting a potential slowdown in demand [8][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific companies within the chemical sector, including Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, among others [6][22]. - It also highlights growth opportunities in semiconductor materials and packaging materials, recommending companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Co. for their strong performance potential [6][22]. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization, projected net profits, and PE ratios, with recommendations for companies like Hailir and Yangnong Chemical to be rated as "Buy" or "Increase" [22].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.69%, surpassing the 25,000-point mark, indicating a positive market response to reduced uncertainty factors [1] - S&P Global Ratings maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in China's economic resilience and debt management [2] - The stock market environment is favorable, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, leading to a decline in the US dollar and an increase in gold prices [2] Group 2 - China's trade with ASEAN reached 4.29 trillion yuan, growing by 9.4%, making ASEAN the largest trading partner, while trade with the US decreased by 11.1% [3] - Apple announced a new $100 billion investment to shift more production to the US, contributing to a significant rise in its stock and related supply chain companies [4] - The express delivery industry in Guangdong raised its base price, leading to stock price increases for major players like ZTO Express [4] Group 3 - The brain-computer interface industry is expected to see significant innovation and the emergence of leading companies by 2030, supported by government policies [5][6] - The shipping industry is experiencing price increases, with major companies like Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk raising freight rates on various routes [7] - Dongyue Group anticipates a substantial profit increase of approximately 150% due to the ongoing demand for refrigerants and its leading position in the industry [9][10]