Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market has shown an upward trend, with major indices such as the ChiNext Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 leading in gains, while the STAR 50 and CSI 500 experienced slight declines [1][15][17] - Since early April, there has been a significant outperformance of small-cap indices compared to large and mid-cap indices, with the CSI 2000 and Wind Micro-cap Index rising by 16.4% and 22.1% respectively from April 8 to May 16 [2][20][26] - The report highlights that the small-cap indices have benefited from a rebound after a prior decline, as well as from improved market sentiment following substantial progress in US-China trade talks [2][26][27] Group 2 - Historical patterns suggest that the divergence between small and large-cap stocks may converge in the future, as market sentiment shifts from riskier small-cap stocks to more stable large-cap stocks during prolonged market rallies [3][34][36] - The report emphasizes that mid to long-term capital inflows into the A-share market are likely to favor large-cap stocks, as these are typically preferred by institutional investors seeking stability and predictable performance [3][35] - The report also notes that the profitability of large-cap stocks is currently stronger, with the ROE (TTM) for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 at 9.8% and 6.0% respectively, compared to lower figures for small-cap indices [3][37] Group 3 - The report suggests a potential rotation between defensive and growth styles in the market, with defensive sectors focusing on stable or high-dividend industries, while growth sectors emphasize thematic growth and independent cyclical industries [4][58][59] - It identifies specific industries to watch under different market sentiment scenarios, with utilities, banks, and construction being favored in a declining sentiment environment, while media, defense, and technology sectors may perform better if sentiment improves [4][59][60] - The report provides a scoring framework for industry allocation, indicating that public utilities and banks score highly under current conditions, suggesting a preference for these sectors in the near term [4][65]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with a focus on relative opportunities in the pharmaceutical and dividend sectors [19][21] - The model predicts a potential shift to a downward trend for the Wande All A Index, indicating a possible adjustment phase in May [19][26] - The pharmaceutical sector is highlighted for its relative stability and potential for returns, while the dividend sector is also expected to perform well after a short-term adjustment [19][21] Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (May 12-16, 2025) - The top three broad indices were: North Certificate 50 (3.13%), Wande Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (1.58%), and ChiNext Index (1.38%) [10] - The bottom three indices were: Sci-Tech Innovation 100 (-1.29%), Sci-Tech Innovation 50 (-1.10%), and Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index (-1.00%) [10] A-share Market Outlook (May 19-23, 2025) - The Wande All A Index's daily model shifted from a positive to a negative signal on May 15, suggesting a potential adjustment phase [19][26] - The monthly model for May scored -2.5, indicating a slight adjustment in the A-share market [19][26] - The report anticipates a "V-shaped" market movement, with ongoing pressure on trading volumes [19] Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a defensive ETF allocation strategy, focusing on the pharmaceutical and dividend sectors for relative returns [19][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the resilience of China's economy, as evidenced by a 2.4% year-on-year growth in total goods trade imports and exports in the first four months of the year, with a notable 5.6% increase in April alone [1] - The export of new energy vehicles reached 642,000 units, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 52.6%, reflecting the high-quality development of China's strategic automotive industry [1] - The A500 index, which tracks major stocks in the A-share market, has shown strong performance, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as China Merchants Energy and China Life Insurance, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF (159339) is described as a powerful tool for long-term investment in China's capital market, covering 63% of total revenue and 70% of total net profit with less than 10% of the A-share market's constituent stocks [2] - The A50 ETF (159592) focuses on large-cap leading stocks across various industries, benefiting from increased market concentration due to supply-side reforms, making them attractive during earnings disclosure periods [2] - Recent policy measures emphasize the importance of developing service consumption, supporting technological innovation, and maintaining a stable and active capital market, aiming for a "slow bull" market trend to attract long-term investment [2]

据悉，"2025海外榜TOP50"是对所有2025年1月1日之前在全球上市的中国内地公司进行测评后，选取海外品牌价值居前的50家公司。 每经记者｜黄博文 每经编辑｜张海妮 5月9日，第九个中国品牌日前夕，由每日经济新闻主办、清华大学经济管理学院中国企业研究中心提供学术支持的"2025第九届中国上市公司品牌价值榜发 布会"在上海举行。 会上发布了"2025中国上市公司品牌价值海外榜TOP50"（以下简称"2025海外榜TOP50"）。数据显示，"2025海外榜TOP50"的总体海外品牌价值为24732.55 亿元，同比增长19.8%。其中，腾讯控股（HK00700）位居第一，海外品牌价值达到2565.23亿元。此外，共有15个行业的企业进入榜单，其中，家电合计海 外品牌价值最高，达到3854.59亿元。 腾讯控股位居第一，海外品牌价值增至2565亿元 图片来源：《2025中国上市公司品牌价值榜分析报告》 具体到行业分层情况，可分成3个梯队：第一梯队中，有2个行业海外品牌价值超过3000亿元，即家电和电子行业，合计海外品牌价值为7280.59亿元，占比 29.4%；第二梯队中，有8个行业海外品牌价值在1000亿元 ...

周三（5月7日），美国科技股七巨头（Magnificent 7）指数跌0.11%，报147.23点，全天呈现出U形走 势。 英伟达收涨3.1%，亚马逊涨2%，Meta Platforms涨1.62%，特斯拉和微软至多涨0.32%，苹果则收跌 1.14%，谷歌A跌7.26%。 此外，AMD涨1.76%，台积电ADR涨1.31%，巴菲特旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦B类股涨1.15%，礼来涨 0.21%。 | 英伟达 | 117.06 | +3.52 (+3.10%) | 2.03亿股 | 2.86万亿 -12.82% | ( ) ... | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | us NVDA | 116.70 | -0.36 (-0.31%) 盘后 | | | | | 亚马逊 | 188.71 | +3.70 (+2.00%) 4360.79万股 | | 2.00万亿 -13.98% | ( | | us AMZN | 189.03 | +0.32(+0.17%)盘后 | | | | | AMD | 100.36 | +1.74 (+1.76%) 8538.74万股 | | 16 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 4 月 29 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天震荡调整，三大指数小幅下跌 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3288.41 | -0.20% | -6.65 | | | 深证成指 | 9855.20 | -0.62% | -61.86 | | | 沪深 300 | 3781.62 | -0.14% | -5.37 | | | 创业板 | 1934.46 | -0.65% | -12.73 | | | 科创 50 | 1002.83 | -0.17% | -1.74 | | | 北证 50 | 1277.03 | -1.78% | -23.16 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行 | 0.98% ...

1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪进一步下行 根 据 《 从 结 构 化 视 角 全 新 打 造 市 场 情 绪 择 时 模 型 》 文 中 提 到 的 构 建 思 路 ， 目 前 我 们 用 于 构 建 市 场 情 绪 结 构 指 标 所 用 到 的 细 分 指 标 如 下 表 | 指标简称 | 含义 | 情绪指示方向 | | --- | --- | --- | | 行业间交易波动率 | 资金在各板块间的交易活跃度 | 正向 | | 行业交易拥挤度 | 极值状态判断市场是否过热 | 负向 | | 价量一致性 | 资金情绪稳定性 | 正向 | | 科创 50 成交占比 | 资金风险偏好 | 正向 | | 行业涨跌趋势性 | 刻画市场轮涨补涨程度，趋势衡量 | 正向 | | RSI | 价格体现买方和卖方力量相对强弱 | 正向 | | 主力买入力量 | 主力资金净流入水平 | 正向 | | PCR 结合 VIX | 从期权指标看市场多空情绪 | 正向或负向 | | 融资余额占比 | 资金对当前和未来观点多空 | 6 公众号 · 普罗完酒会工 | 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和 ...

1. 情绪模型观点：市场情绪进一步下行 根据《从结构化视角全新打造市场情绪择时模型》文中提到的构建思路，目前我们用于构建市场情绪结构指标所用到 的细分指标如下表 在指标合成方法上，模型采用打分的方式，根据每个分项指标所提示的情绪方向和所处布林轨道位置计算各指标分 数，指标分数可分为（-1，0，1）三种情况，最终对各个指标分数等权求和。最终的情绪结构指标为求和后分数的20 日均线，如图1所示，指标整体围绕0轴在[-6,6]的范围内上下波动，近5年A股市场情绪波动较大，其中2023年大部分 时间指标都处于较低位置，直至2024年10月市场情绪得分突破2。 市场情绪自3月20日持续调整，当前已下降接近0轴，为0.1，数值较上周五(4/11)下降0.4，模型维持看空观点。 1.1 从分项指标出发：市场进一步缩量，资金不确定情绪增长 本周A股市场继续提示市场情绪下行，速度没有呈现减缓趋势。本周市场情绪不确定性增强，风险偏好程度下降是市 场情绪进一步调整的主要原因。 下表展示了4月以来的情绪结构各分项指标的分数情况，从分项指标出发，本周明显提示信号切换的指标为科创50成 交占比和300RSI指标，分别代表了市场风险偏好程 ...