Core Insights - The consumer industry has experienced significant developments over the past year, driven by IP and trendy toy economies appealing to Generation Z's purchasing power, as well as the comprehensive integration of AI into consumption and e-commerce [1] - The "New Consumption Conference" organized by 21st Century Business Herald will take place on December 17 in Shanghai, focusing on the theme of "cross-border growth and innovative integration" [1] Industry Trends - New consumer brands are characterized by their ability to adapt and innovate in response to changing market dynamics [1] - The upcoming year is expected to bring new trends in the consumer sector, emphasizing the importance of cross-industry collaboration and innovation [1]

宏观日报 | 2025-12-19 关注下游消费新业态试点运行 中观事件总览 服务行业：1）近日，商务部办公厅、财政部办公厅印发《关于做好消费新业态新模式新场景试点有关工作的通知》， 在北京等50个城市开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点。12月17日，商务部会同财政部召开"三新"试点工作部署推 进会。会议强调，各试点城市要进一步完善实施方案，建立健全工作推进和保障机制，抓紧出台试点资金（项目） 管理办法，紧扣"三新"试点支持方向，精心筛选支持项目，强化项目动态管理。试点城市商务主管部门要发挥好 牵头协调作用，推动解决试点面临的堵点痛点问题，确保试点工作取得实效。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）有色：镍、铅价格小幅回落。2）农业：棕榈油价格小幅回落。3）能源：国际原油，液化天然气价格持 续回落。 中游：1）化工：PX、PTA开工率持续回落。2）能源：电厂耗煤量提高。3）基建：沥青开工低位。 下游：1）地产：一、二、三线城市商品房销售持续回暖。2）服务：国内、国际航班班次回落。影视票房回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary strategy for economic growth, aiming to build a strong domestic market and enhance the quality of goods and services supplied [1][2]. Group 1: Strengthening Domestic Demand - The conference prioritizes expanding domestic demand, with a contribution rate of 71% from domestic demand to economic growth in the first three quarters of the year [2]. - Experts highlight that the strategic position of expanding domestic demand has been elevated, with a focus on boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency [2][3]. - The emphasis on "maintaining strategic initiative and enhancing economic resilience" through a strong domestic market is noted as a key objective [2]. Group 2: Boosting Consumption - The focus on "expanding the supply of quality goods and services" aligns with the goal of leading new supply with new demand [4]. - There is a recognition of the mismatch between effective demand and supply, particularly in high-quality products and services, indicating a need for structural improvements [4][5]. - The conference outlines plans to adapt to changes in consumption structure and optimize the implementation of relevant policies to enhance service consumption [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Stabilization - The conference sets a goal to "promote investment stabilization," with plans to increase the scale of central budget investments and utilize new policy financial tools [7]. - It is acknowledged that fixed asset investment growth has been declining, necessitating a strategic response to enhance investment effectiveness [7][8]. - The emphasis on optimizing the management of local government special bonds aims to improve funding efficiency and support major project construction [8].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations between adjustments and rebounds, with mixed sentiments among investors regarding whether to cut losses or buy more [1] - The external environment is not optimistic, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut highlighting internal divisions, particularly concerning stagnant inflation and a cooling job market [2] - The A-share market has shown a structural performance with seamless transitions between sectors, leading to the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs despite some volatility [2] Group 2 - As the year-end approaches, there is a decrease in risk appetite among investors, which explains the recent market adjustments [3] - The stock-bond valuation ratio indicates that major indices are in a middle state, neither particularly cheap nor overly expensive, based on the PE-TTM and ten-year government bond yield [3] - The number of new individual stock accounts is not at a high level, suggesting that the current market conditions do not reflect the typical signals of a market peak [6] Group 3 - The core driving force behind the recent market rally since April 7 is attributed to positive domestic signals, including policy support for the capital market, technological innovation, and new domestic capital inflows [8] - Despite external influences and geopolitical tensions, the fundamental logic of the current market rally remains intact, encouraging a cautious yet confident outlook for medium to long-term investments [8]

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 过去十几年，A股市场在岁末年初通常会呈现这样一个现象：基于对新一年经济、政策或行业的预期， 市场资金流入增加，交易趋于活跃，风险偏好抬升，进而酝酿一段上涨行情，这一现象被称为跨年行 情。 从历史数据看，跨年行情在时间维度和资产表现风格上呈现不同的特征。跨年行情通常集中在上年12月 至次年3、4月之间，中间跨越春节、两会这两个重要的时间节点。行情延续时间长短不一，强弱也各有 不同。统计2010年至2025年跨年行情可以看到，主要指数在12月至次年2月期间的上涨概率逐步上升， 背后的主要因素可能在于，2月份通常是春节所在月份，市场受到春节前后积极情绪以及春节后至两会 前政策博弈的推动。 | | 上证指数 | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证1000 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12月 | 47% | ୧୦% | 40% | 27% | 33% | 40% | | 1月 | ...

【编者按】2025年，A股市场迎来里程碑式发展：总市值站上100万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。站在"十五五"规划的开局之年， 2026年A股市场又将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，展望及预测2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产 配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 12月17日，永赢基金权益研究部总经理、基金经理王乾做客搜狐财经直播间，对2025年A股市场进行复盘，并展望了2026年的投资机遇与挑战。 政策效应最直接的体现是市场流动性的极大改善。"早期国家队的入市，在市场比较底部的时候，给市场注入了非常多的信心。"王乾表示。后续随着行情演 绎，居民存款向非银机构转移等带来的增量资金入市迹象明显。 进入2026年，市场风格是否会发生变化？王乾认为，风格再平衡是2026年值得关注、研究和布局的重要方向。 过去一年，A股在政策转向与流动性改善的双重驱动下，走出了一轮显著的行情。王乾回顾称，此轮行情的起点可追溯至2024年"924"政策的转向，而2025 年的走势是去年四季度以来行情 ...

【编者按】2025年，A股市场迎来里程碑式发展：总市值站上100万亿元的高峰，上证指数涨破4000点创下近十年新高。站在"十五五"规划的开局之年， 2026年A股市场又将如何演绎？哪些行业将孕育新的投资机遇？ 搜狐财经《基金佳问》栏目特别推出"基遇2026"专题系列报道，复盘A股市场细分领域年内行情，展望及预测2026年各热门赛道的投资机遇，把握后市资产 配置的主逻辑，寻找具有投资潜力的基金产品。 12月17日，永赢基金权益研究部总经理、基金经理王乾做客搜狐财经直播间，对2025年A股市场进行复盘，并展望了2026年的投资机遇与挑战。 过去一年，A股在政策转向与流动性改善的双重驱动下，走出了一轮显著的行情。王乾回顾称，此轮行情的起点可追溯至2024年"924"政策的转向，而2025 年的走势是去年四季度以来行情的延续。 政策效应最直接的体现是市场流动性的极大改善。 "早期国家队的入市，在市场比较底部的时候，给市场注入了非常多的信心。"王乾表示。后续随着行情 演绎，居民存款向非银机构转移等带来的增量资金入市迹象明显。 进入2026年，市场风格是否会发生变化？王乾认为，风格再平衡是2026年值得关注、研究和布局的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a "spring market" driven by earnings growth in 2026, supported by policies aimed at reducing competition, advancements in AI infrastructure, and a recovering consumer market [1][2]. Market Short-term Style Shift - Morgan Stanley's China stock strategy team has shifted its outlook to positive for MSCI China and CSI 300 indices since January 9, 2023, predicting that the upward trend may continue until 2026 [2]. - A style shift from growth and momentum sectors to value, defensive, and high-dividend sectors is recommended, likely lasting until the end of this year and early next year [2]. - The MSCI China, CSI 300, and MSCI Hong Kong indices are projected to reach 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively by 2026, representing potential increases of approximately 22%, 13.5%, and 17.8% [2]. Earnings Growth as Market Driver - Stable growth in earnings per share (EPS) is identified as the core driver for sustained market growth [3]. - The proportion of companies in the MSCI China index with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased since May [3]. - The current net profit margin of Chinese listed companies (excluding the financial sector) is relatively low in the Asia-Pacific region, but the return on equity (ROE) remains strong [3]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign long-term funds have increased their holdings in the Chinese stock market, with a 100 basis point rise in the holdings of global active funds by the end of October [4]. - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: "anti-involution," AI, overseas expansion, and consumption, with real estate as a potential theme [4][5]. Sector-Specific Insights - The "anti-involution" theme focuses on sectors with strong growth prospects, such as batteries and photovoltaics, as well as macro-sensitive sectors like steel and cement [5]. - Companies with overseas operations are expected to gain more attention from global investors due to their balanced business models [5]. - The essential consumer sector in MSCI China is currently undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [5]. AI Sector Analysis - The assessment of whether the AI sector is in a bubble depends on valuation levels, with recent corrections observed in semiconductor hardware valuations [6]. - The focus is on energy storage companies within AI infrastructure, which are currently in a recovery phase [6]. - The technology sector's performance in the fourth quarter is crucial for sustaining high expectations, with long-term growth dependent on companies improving quality and profitability [6].

我们做基金投资，一般是低估买入，正常估值坚定持有，等到高估时再止盈卖出。 有朋友问，之前低估买入的品种，如果一轮牛市走完也没能涨到高估，是不是就白折腾了，还会有收益吗？ 牛市里，也不是所有品种都能到高估 其实，每一轮牛市都会必然遇到有品种到不了高估的情况。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 像2021年初，市场涨到了3点几星，当时估值表里，就有不少品种仍然处于正常估值，没到高估。 | 螺丝钉星级 | ★★★ | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20210219 | | 射坡益率 市盈率 市净架 股息率 | | | ROE | 场内基金 | 场外交流 | | 上证红利 | 9.99% | 10.01 | 1.05 | 4.53% | 10.45% | 510880 | | | 中川名城河 | 9.58% | 10.43 | 1.12 | 4.25% | 10.75% | 515180 | 030010 | | 中加程家行 | | | 0.98 | 3.27% | | 512800 | 001594 | | 基本 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘上午微涨，到下午出现了神奇两点半。 到收盘的时候大盘上涨比较多，一口气回到4.2星。 大中小盘股都上涨，小盘股上涨略低一些。 前两天下跌比较多的成长风格，今天也大幅反弹。 港股也整体上涨。 1. 最近全球市场，一些资产也出现了波动。 （1）A股中证全指，从10月份的高点，到本周二，大约回调了5-6%上下。 这个回调幅度不算太大。 今年1月和4月，A股都有过10%以上级别的回调。 不过三季度大涨的时候，进来了不少新投资者，可能刚开始投资就遇到了回调。 对新手投资者，这个波动也是一个考验。 港股最近的波动就更大一些。 另外亚太地区的股票市场，也普遍出现波动。 （2）除了股票市场波动，最近长期纯债也出现波动。 30年期国债指数基金，今年已经从高点，到周二，回调了8.9%。 这个回调比A股的回调还大。 最近几周长期纯债波动也比较大。 股票和长期纯债一般是有负相关性。 两者一起下跌，历史上不太多，往往是遇到流动性短期收紧的时候会出现。 例如2013年、例如2020年初。 2. 流动性收紧，也跟美元等政策有关。 （1）12月11日美联储降息。 但是美联储也释放了"鹰式降息" ...