| 1). 3400点附近 | 21% | | --- | --- | | 2). 3500点附近 | 39% | | 3). 3600点附近 | 8% | | 4). 3700点附近 | 12% | | 5). 3800点附近 | 14% | | 6). 3900点附近 | 1% | | 7). 4000点及以上 | 5% | 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 投资者盈利占比上升 | 请问您对2025年三季度上证综指波动区间下限的判断是 | | | --- | --- | | 1). 3500点附近 | 26% | | 2). 3400点附近 | 48% | | 3). 3300点附近 | 10% | | 4). 3200点附近 | 16% | （感谢申万宏源证券、东北证券相关营业部对本调查的支持。上图为部分调查结果） □ A 股三大指数在二季度探底回升呈"V"形走势，在行情回暖的背景下，48%的受访投资者表示在二季 度实现盈利 □ 伴随指数连续反弹，投资者持有的权益资产估值逐渐修复，其对未来证券账户的配置意愿也出现回升 □ 二季度，个人投资者延续对科技成长股的投资热 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Japan's government bond liquidity has deteriorated beyond the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, with the Bloomberg Japan government bond liquidity index surpassing the post-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels[2] - The relative performance of U.S. cyclical stocks versus defensive stocks is closely tied to forward swap rates linked to interest rates, indicating market optimism about sustained high rates despite expectations of Fed rate cuts[5] - The relative performance of MSCI Japan bank stocks is highly correlated with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, benefiting from rising inflation expectations in Japan[5] Group 2: Investment Trends - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to technology stocks, reaching the highest level since March 2009, while reducing positions in cash and consumer staples[6] - Emerging market sovereign debt and U.S. Treasury yield spreads have narrowed to a 15-year low, reducing the attractiveness of emerging market debt strategies[6] - The relative performance of European consumer staples has diverged from the gold-to-copper ratio since 2024, indicating a weakening relationship with macroeconomic conditions[7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The relative P/E ratios of U.S. and European stock indices are closely linked to the uncertainty of economic policies, with European valuations rising as U.S. policy uncertainty increases[9] - China's 5-year and 1-year interest rate swap spread turned positive in July 2025, reflecting increased investor confidence in inflation due to domestic policies and infrastructure projects[8] - The South African stock index has risen approximately 19% since 2025, driven by increasing gold and platinum prices, outperforming other emerging market indices[13] Group 4: Sentiment and Risk - The SPDR U.S. Dollar ETF's call option volume has been declining, suggesting limited upward momentum for the dollar index in the near future[13] - A significant portion of fund managers (38%) view global trade conflicts as the biggest tail risk, with "shorting the U.S. dollar" identified as the most crowded trade[6]

截至收盘，中证港股通互联网指数上涨1.7%，恒生科技指数上涨1.6%，恒生港股通新经济指数上涨1.2%，中证港股通消费主题指数上涨1.2%，中证港股通 医药卫生综合指数上涨0.2%。 Wind数据显示，恒生科技ETF易方达（513010）上周连续5日获资金加仓，累计获近10亿元净流入 港股新经济指数基本情况跟踪 (2025年8月4日) 恒生新经济ETF 跟踪恒生港股通新经济指数 该指数由港股通范围内、属于 "新经济"行业中市值最大的 50只股票组成,主要包括信息 技术、可选消费、医疗保健行 = 令日 该指数涨跌 1.2% 该指数 滚动市盈率 23.3倍 恒生科技ETF易方达 跟踪恒生科技指数 该指数由港股上市公司中与科 技主题高度相关的、市值最大 的30只股票组成,信息技术及 可选消费行业合计占比超90% 令日 该指数涨跌 该指数 滚动市盈率 1.6% 2 港股通互联网ETF 跟踪中证港股通互联网指数 该指数由港股通范围内30家互 联网龙头公司的股票组成,主 要包括信息技术、可选消费行 业 令日 该指数涨跌 21.2倍 港股通医药ETF 跟踪中证港股通医药卫生综合指数 该指数由港股通范围内医疗卫 生行业中50 ...

Production Side - As of the fourth week of July, the blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[19] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, exceeding last year's average[19] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, a slight decrease compared to the previous period[19] - The asphalt inventory saw a significant decline, indicating an acceleration in physical work volume in the infrastructure sector[7] Demand Side - In July, the real estate market remained weak, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities down by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.88%[8] - The total box office revenue for movies was 84,200.00 million yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 99.53% but a year-on-year decline of 14.85%[8] Trade and Prices - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) rose to 1,305.40, with a month-on-month growth of 2.19%[9] - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) decreased to 1,684.07, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 16.42%[9] - The CPI showed a mild increase in consumer prices, while industrial product prices fluctuated, with PPI pressures from weak energy prices[9]

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of July, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up by 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous period[3] Inventory and Capacity Utilization - As of the fourth week of July, rebar inventory decreased by 4.29% compared to the previous period, indicating a reduction in stock levels[27] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 53.48%, up by 2.51 percentage points from the previous month, slightly above last year's average[46] - Cement clinker capacity utilization was 58.10%, down by 0.45 percentage points from the previous month, below last year's average[46] Demand Trends - In July, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 21.88%[4] - The volume of postal express collection was 3.704 billion pieces, down by 5.29% month-on-month but up by 15.14% year-on-year[4] Price Movements - The average price of cement was 338.17 yuan/ton, down by 0.33% month-on-month, below last year's average[67] - The price of rebar increased by 4.14% month-on-month to 3,310.40 yuan/ton, still below last year's average[68] - The price of asphalt rose by 0.40% month-on-month to 3,823.00 yuan/ton, above last year's average[69]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent market adjustments, with major indices mostly declining, while specific sectors like PCB and innovative pharmaceuticals continue to accelerate trends, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3][12] - The AI computing sector shows increased capital expenditure from overseas tech giants, confirming the rationality of North American computing demand, while domestic computing's self-control is seen as an inevitable trend [4][13] - The innovative pharmaceutical theme has surged significantly, with the Wind data indicating a 25.61% increase in the innovative drug index for July, driven by clinical advancements and overseas breakthroughs [14] Group 2 - As of August 1, 2025, over 91.81% of actively managed equity funds have achieved positive returns this year, with an average return of 13.50%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index [15] - The active equity fund index tracking shows varied performances, with the growth stock index rising by 0.63% and achieving a cumulative excess return of 20.58% since inception [8][12] - The pharmaceutical stock index rose by 3.48% last week, reflecting strong performance in the sector, while the consumer stock index fell by 1.78% [9][12]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a correction today, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (159570) falling over 2% and marking a three-day decline [1] - The trading volume for the ETF reached 763 million yuan, with an increase of 903 million shares traded in the past month [1] - Other related ETFs also showed declines, including the E Fund Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513070) down 1.12%, the Hong Kong Automotive ETF (159210) down 0.71%, the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750) down 0.67%, and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology 30 ETF (520980) down 0.46% [1] Group 2 - The mentioned ETFs allow investment in the Hong Kong market without the need for a Hong Kong stock account [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Report author: Mao Lei [8] - Report institution: Guotai Junan Futures [9] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance last week: The overall market declined, reaching a phased high during the week and then oscillating downward. The top three sectors in terms of gains were medicine and biology, communication, and media, while the bottom three were coal, non - ferrous metals, and real estate [3] - Policy impact: The Politburo meeting announced the main economic work direction for the second half of the year. The policy on stabilizing growth weakened marginally due to the improved external environment and good economic data in the first half. In the anti - involution area, the policy on prices was diluted, causing a significant decline in related commodity futures prices and dragging down relevant stock market sectors [3] - Overseas factors: Tariff fluctuations increased. The deadline for the equal - tariff negotiation for non - Chinese countries was approaching on August 1st, and the market's interpretation of the China - related trade negotiation in Sweden was not optimistic, suppressing investors' risk appetite [3] - Market turning points: In a bull market driven by risk preference, market turning points are mainly driven by policy shifts and the fermentation of external risks. Last week's market performance basically conformed to this adjustment logic [4] - Future market outlook: After the policy meeting, the actual future direction is uncertain. There is also uncertainty regarding the Sino - US equal - tariff deadline in the middle of this month. The upward market space may be limited, and the downward space is also restricted as market sentiment remains positive [4] - Factors to watch: The release of China's economic data in July, the Fed's policy direction, and the progress of tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term strategy - Intraday trading frequency can refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [6] Trend strategy - Adopt a long - after - correction approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 contracts are 3909 - 4110 points, 2727 - 2853 points, 6030 - 6434 points, and 6375 - 6804 points respectively [6] Cross - variety strategy - Cautiously participate in the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [7] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot market review - Global stock indices: Most global stock indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 0.30%, while others such as the Russian RTS, NASDAQ, and Brazil BOVESPA Index fell [11] - Major domestic indices: All major domestic indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index was an exception with a 0.30% increase. Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase [11][12][13] - Industry performance: In the CSI 300 index, the medicine sector rose by 2.17%, while sectors such as industry, materials, and optional consumption declined. In the CSI 500 index, the medicine and telecommunications sectors rose, while others such as finance and real estate declined [15] Futures market review - Futures contract performance: The IF futures contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of股指期货 declined [15] Index valuation - PE ratios: The PE (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.57 times, 13.5 times, 11.39 times, 30.79 times, and 41.44 times respectively [18][19] Market funds - Newly - established funds and investors: The data on newly - established equity - biased fund shares and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented [22] - Fund rates and central bank operations: The fund rate declined last week, and the central bank's net investment situation is shown [22]

Core Viewpoint - The core argument emphasizes that listed companies are not solely the assets of major shareholders but are jointly owned by diverse investors, necessitating the transformation of differing expectations into collaborative development to enhance comprehensive value management [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Diverse Investor Participation - The trend of socialized equity structure in China's A-share market shows a decline in the proportion of institutional holdings from 50.7% in 2018 to 42.0% in 2024, indicating an increase in the influence of individual and institutional investors [3]. - Attracting diverse social capital is crucial for the development of listed companies, especially in sectors like biotechnology and information technology, where early-stage investments are vital for overcoming innovation challenges [4]. Group 2: Comprehensive Value Management - Comprehensive value management aims to align the interests of various investors, addressing the financial stability needs of financial investors, the innovation expectations of industrial investors, and the social responsibility demands of societal investors [8]. - Companies should elevate comprehensive value management to a strategic level, integrating financial, industrial, and social value dimensions into their evaluation systems [8]. Group 3: Addressing Investor Discrepancies - Discrepancies between major shareholders and minority investors pose challenges in decision-making regarding profit distribution, mergers, and R&D investments, necessitating a balanced approach to governance [10][11]. - Companies should optimize shareholder checks and balances to foster collaboration between major and minor shareholders, ensuring that both long-term growth and short-term returns are addressed [12]. Group 4: Innovation and Technology Development - Disparities in understanding technology innovation between industrial investors and company management can hinder progress, necessitating a collaborative approach to decision-making in technology paths and innovation outcomes [14][16]. - Companies should establish processes that involve both management and industrial investors in technology decisions to align their interests and enhance innovation [16]. Group 5: Risk Sharing Mechanisms - Financial and industrial investors often have differing risk preferences, complicating the establishment of effective risk-sharing mechanisms in innovation [19][21]. - Companies should adopt diversified financing strategies to distribute risks among various investor groups, enhancing stability and flexibility in funding [21]. Group 6: Balancing Economic and Social Value - Social investors prioritize long-term societal impacts over short-term economic benefits, creating potential conflicts in corporate decision-making [24]. - Companies must recognize the influence of social perceptions on their investment value and strive to balance economic performance with social responsibility [25][26].

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is approaching its conclusion, with a focus on achieving economic and social development goals by the end of the year [4][5] - Various regions and departments are working to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations while promoting high-quality development [5][8] - The completion of 102 major projects, including the Yebatan Hydropower Station, is crucial for economic recovery [6][7] Group 2 - Policies are being implemented to address insufficient demand, including financial support for consumption and the issuance of special bonds [9][10] - Over 180 million business entities are seen as the backbone of the Chinese economy, with local governments providing tailored support to help them navigate challenges [11] - Employment policies are being strengthened, particularly for recent graduates, to ensure job stability [13] Group 3 - Significant investments are being made in artificial intelligence and robotics, with local governments establishing funds and alliances to support these industries [16][18] - The Chinese market for artificial intelligence is projected to reach $140 billion by 2030, highlighting the country's competitive edge in high-tech sectors [16] - Financial institutions are expanding support for technology innovation and industrial upgrades, with increased loan limits and new financing policies [20] Group 4 - Recent reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board aim to enhance inclusivity and adaptability for high-quality, unprofitable tech companies [21][22] - Ongoing reforms are being implemented across various sectors to stimulate market vitality and ensure the completion of reform objectives [23][24] - China is expanding its institutional openness, creating a favorable business environment for foreign investors [25][26]