2026 年 1 月 20 日 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | 期 货 | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅 铁2603 | 5548 | -22 | 114,689 | 229,601 | | | 硅 铁2605 | 5536 | -30 | 36,726 | 78,111 | | | 锰 硅2603 | 5808 | -20 | 123,290 | 228,834 | | | 锰 硅2605 | 5848 | -18 | 106,298 | 273,541 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅 铁:FeSi7 5-B:汇总价格:内 | 蒙 | 5270 | -50.0 | 元/吨 | | | 硅 锰:FeMn6 5S i1 7:内 | 蒙 | 57 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 19 日 F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： 内蒙古 宁夏 广西 天津 江苏 内蒙古 - -120 100 0 70 宁夏 - - 220 -70 190 广西 - - - -100 -30 天津 - - - - 70 硅锰 :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5548 | -22 | -150 | 114689 | -89005 | 219779 | 9822 | | SM主力合约 | 5808 | -20 | -122 | 123290 | -62382 | 228834 | -2102 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron (FeSi), prices vary by region and grade, e.g., Ningxia 72 is 5320, Inner Mongolia 72 is 5320, and Shaanxi 75 is 5850 [1] - For silicon manganese (SiMn), the closing price of the main contract on CZCE, basis, spreads between regions and grades are presented, along with prices of related materials like chemical coke and manganese ore [6] Supply - For silicon iron, the monthly and weekly production of 136 Chinese enterprises, and the capacity utilization rate in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are shown [4] - For silicon manganese, the weekly production in China, and the purchase volume and price of Hebei Steel Group are provided [6] Demand - For silicon iron, factors related to demand include the production of crude steel, metal magnesium, and stainless - steel in China, as well as the purchase volume of Hebei Steel Group [4] - For silicon manganese, the demand in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's data), and the export volume are presented [7] Inventory - For silicon iron, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi), CZCE's warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory available days in different regions are given [5] - For silicon manganese, CZCE's warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, total inventory, inventory available days in China, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China are shown [7] Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, costs such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and profits including production cost, discount to the main contract profit, and export profit are presented [5] - For silicon manganese, profits in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North and South regions), and the discount to the main contract profit in Guangxi and Ningxia are provided [7]

| | | | | | | | HE STATE W | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2026/01/19 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) 元 | RB2610 | HC2610 | 12609 | J2609 | JM2609 | 6000 | | | 400 3 ...

跟随调整后，底部支撑较强 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量双双下降，同时，为避免加收高额差别电价，陕西地区部分企业存在技术改造需求，未来 供应端仍有收缩预期。需求方面，本周钢联数据显示，钢材表需与产量双双增加，短期原料需求存在支撑。不过从高炉检修数据推 算，未来高炉复产节奏放缓，拖累远期需求。成本端方面，产区铁合金电价近期平稳运行，关注主产区电价政策动态。受有色金属 等商品龙头调整拖累，硅铁有所调整，但自身估值水平不高，且底部成本支撑较强。 锰硅方面，供应端 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market cooled last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate in the bottom - range. The black - series is still in a bottom - oscillating pattern and is sensitive to marginal news. Pay attention to the destocking progress of hot - rolled coils, the strengthening of "dual - carbon" policies, and their potential marginal impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [3]. - For iron ore, the overseas shipping season is entering a slow period, and the supply pressure may be marginally relieved. Iron - water production has limited resumption, and the inventory structure problem remains unsolved. Steel mills are starting to replenish their stocks before the Spring Festival, creating room for a relative price increase. Monitor the stock - replenishment and iron - water production rhythm of steel mills [6]. - The long - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, mainly centered around precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are affected by the spill - over of market sentiment, and the scope of sentiment influence may shrink. Be aware of the impact of the high - level fluctuations of leading varieties on market sentiment [9]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be influenced by the overall market sentiment and the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply contraction for ferrosilicon. Focus on potential restrictions on manganese ore exports and "dual - carbon" policies [10]. - The decline of coking coal and coke prices last week was mainly due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but with short - term fluctuations. Coking coal and coke are expected to show an oscillatingly strong price trend [15][16]. - For industrial silicon, with the reduction of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, it still faces inventory - building pressure and is expected to have an oscillatingly weak price trend. Monitor the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [19]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [22]. - For glass, the supply - demand pattern is in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal driver. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand game continues, and there is no obvious driving factor. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3163 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.094%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 61,680 tons, an increase of 1510 tons. The main - contract open interest was 1.7553 million lots, an increase of 70,217 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai summary prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3315 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.241%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 194,362 tons, unchanged. The main - contract open interest was 1.5147 million lots, an increase of 66,309 lots. The Lecong and Shanghai summary prices increased by 20 and 30 yuan/ton respectively [2]. b. Strategy Views - The production of hot - rolled coils has slightly increased, the apparent demand has improved, but the inventory is high and the destocking is slow. The apparent demand for rebar has increased significantly, the production is at a medium level, and the inventory is basically flat. The overall performance is neutral [3]. Iron Ore a. Market Quotes - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.12% (- 1.00). The open interest changed by - 3540 lots to 648,900 lots. The weighted open interest was 995,200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 819 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.72 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.74% [5]. b. Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron - ore shipping volume has continued to decline. The shipping volume from Brazil has decreased significantly, and the shipping of Rio Tinto and BHP has decreased. The shipping from non - mainstream countries has increased, and the near - term arrival volume has continued to rise [6]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output was 228.01 tons, a decrease from the previous period. There were both blast - furnace overhauls and restarts. The profitability of steel mills has risen to nearly 40% [6]. - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to increase, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has also increased [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon a. Market Quotes - On January 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.72% at 5828 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 82 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.71% at 5570 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 230 yuan/ton [8]. b. Strategy Views - The decline in the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon was due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but the main focus is on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. Other sectors are affected by sentiment spill - over [9]. - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market will be influenced by market sentiment, the cost - push from manganese ore, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [10]. Coking Coal and Coke a. Market Quotes - On January 16, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 1.39% at 1171.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanxi had different basis levels. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.60% at 1717.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Rizhao and Lvliang had different basis levels [12]. b. Strategy Views - The decline in coking coal and coke prices last week was due to the weakening of market sentiment. In the future, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market will continue, but with short - term fluctuations. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and the prices are expected to show an oscillatingly strong trend [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Quotes - For industrial silicon, the main contract (SI2605) closed at 8605 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.43% (- 125). The weighted open interest increased by 6473 lots to 371,875 lots. The spot prices of different grades in East China remained unchanged [18]. - For polysilicon, the main contract (PS2605) closed at 50,200 yuan/ton on Friday, up 3.14% (+ 1530). The weighted open interest decreased by 2173 lots to 84,296 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon increased [20]. b. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is also weakening. It still faces inventory - building pressure and is expected to have an oscillatingly weak price trend [19]. - For polysilicon, the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [22]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Quotes - For glass, the main contract closed at 1103 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.57% (+ 17). The inventory decreased by 2505,000 cases week - on - week. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders changed [24]. - For soda ash, the main contract closed at 1192 yuan/ton on Friday, down 0.08% (- 1). The inventory increased by 0.23 million tons week - on - week. The positions of the top 20 long and short holders changed [26]. b. Strategy Views - For glass, the supply - demand pattern is in a loose balance, with no obvious marginal driver. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1015 - 1200 yuan/ton [25]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand game continues, and there is no obvious driving factor. The price is expected to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 1123 - 1310 yuan/ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro - sentiment declined last week, ferroalloys showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and fluctuating downward. The industrial side's hedging at high prices suppressed the price increase. Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side and may show a bottom - oscillating trend after the short - term correction [2]. - The production profit of ferroalloys has improved marginally, and the production reduction trend has gradually flattened and turned upward, with production starting to gradually recover. However, the demand improvement is limited, and high inventory further suppresses demand. De - stocking may still need to be achieved through production cuts [63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment decline last week led to a fall - back in ferroalloys. Industrial hedging at high prices restricted price increases. Silicon - manganese inventory decreased by 2.5% week - on - week, but its warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 32.96%. Silicon - iron inventory decreased by 7.48% week - on - week [2]. - On the supply side, the decline in hot - metal production last week reduced the demand for ferroalloys. Although the profit of ferroalloys has recovered recently, the downstream demand is weak, and the driving force for production reduction is not strong, with production expected to fluctuate slightly around the current level. Silicon - iron production decreased by 0.40% and silicon - manganese production decreased by 0.23% week - on - week [2]. - On the demand side, the decline in hot - metal production reduced the demand for ferroalloys. The downstream five major steel products may enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation state, also reducing the demand for ferroalloys [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound oscillation. - Price range: The price range of the silicon - iron main contract 2603 is 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton, and that of the silicon - manganese main contract 2603 is 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton. - Basis strategy: Wait - and - see. - Calendar - spread strategy: Wait - and - see. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Wait - and - see [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Ferroalloy price range forecast: The price range of silicon - iron in the next month is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 53.8%. The price range of silicon - manganese is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.18% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.5% [7]. - Ferroalloy hedging: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a 15% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese. For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Anti - involution expectations; accelerating the comprehensive green and low - carbon transformation and controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects effectively from next year; the 15th Five - Year Plan; magnesium ingot production increased by 7.7% month - on - month in November; downstream steel profits gradually improved; silicon - manganese inventory decreased by 2.5% week - on - week; silicon - iron inventory decreased by 7.8% week - on - week [9][10]. - **Negative information**: Not clearly listed in a summarized form, but factors such as the decline in hot - metal production and high inventory of silicon - manganese are negative factors [2]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday, China will announce the GDP growth rate for 2025. - Next Thursday, the US will announce the weekly initial jobless claims [17]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Analyzed the closing prices and positions of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [14]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar - spread Structure - Silicon - manganese warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 32.96% week - on - week. The silicon - manganese inventory base is at a five - year high, with great de - stocking pressure. The improvement in ferroalloy profits may lead to a continued increase in production, putting pressure on supply [16]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The marginal improvement of ferroalloy profits led to a weakening of the motivation for production cuts, and production began to increase slightly month - on - month [32]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between silicon - iron export profit and export volume, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [62]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - On the supply side, the production profit of ferroalloys has improved marginally, and production has started to gradually recover. On the demand side, although hot - metal production may stop falling and steel production has increased month - on - month, the downstream consumption demand is difficult to rise sustainably in the off - season, and the improvement in ferroalloy demand is limited. High inventory further suppresses demand, and de - stocking may require production cuts [63]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted weekly production of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, as well as the relationship between production profit and production, and the relationship between hot - metal production and ferroalloy production, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [66][67][68]. 3.5.3 Demand - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted weekly demand for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in the five major steel products, as well as the relationship between hot - metal production, magnesium ingot production, steel enterprise profitability, and ferroalloy demand, and the relationship between ferroalloy export profit and export volume, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [70][71][74]. 3.5.4 Inventory - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted seasonal inventory of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, including enterprise inventory, warehouse - receipt inventory, and total inventory, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [85][90][92].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2026年1月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：基本面短期维持，关注供应节奏 | 利 | 润 | | 存 库 | | | 需 求 | | | | 供 应 | | 基本面 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货利润 （周） | 盘面利润 | 仓单数量 | 样本企业库存（周） | 钢厂库存可用天数（12月） | 表需 | 日均铁水产量 | 高炉产能利用率（周） | 出口数量 | 进口数量 | 周产量 | | 条 目 | | | （周） | （张） | | | （11月） | （周） | | （11月） | （11月） | （周） | | | | -74 . | 175 . | 10427 | 6 . | 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, steel products are supported by the cost side with limited downside, but lack upward drivers, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - The fundamentals of iron ore are weakening, with a high shipping level, slow steel - mill resumption, increasing port inventories, and high valuations, so the short - term price is weak but with limited downside [21] - The coking coal supply - demand structure is still in surplus, but the surplus is not serious. The inventory structure is expected to improve, and the macro sentiment is the key factor for price trends [32] - Ferroalloys have large supply pressure, but are supported by the cost side, and may show bottom - oscillating trends after a correction [49] - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the long - term, with increasing over - supply expectations. High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream limit prices [63] - Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, and the high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, with existing spot pressure [87] 3. Summary of Each Section Steel Products - **Price Data**: - On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts changed compared to the previous day, and the month - spreads also showed different degrees of change. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3242 yuan/ton, up from 3165 yuan/ton on the previous day [4] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed slightly, and the basis also had corresponding fluctuations [8][10] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot roll - rebar price difference also showed different trends [15] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable [18] Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The shipping volume of iron ore is at a moderately high level with a 12% year - on - year increase. The steel - mill resumption is slow, with a 1.5 - million - ton week - on - week decrease in molten iron production to 228 million tons. Port inventories are continuously accumulating, exceeding historical highs [21] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts generally decreased compared to the previous day, and the basis also changed. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 806.5 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day [22] Coking Coal and Coke - **Fundamentals**: The coking coal supply - demand structure is in surplus, but the surplus is not serious compared to previous years. With the improvement of demand and the reduction of domestic mine production during the Spring Festival, the inventory structure is expected to improve [32] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the coking coal and coke contract spreads, the basis, and the production profits all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [33][35][36] Ferroalloys - **Fundamentals**: Silicon iron has started to accumulate inventory, and the inventory of silicon manganese has decreased week - on - week, but the inventory base is still large. The supply pressure of ferroalloys is large, but they are supported by the cost side [49] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the basis, contract spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese all changed compared to the previous day and the previous week [50][51] Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: With the release of new production capacity, the daily output of soda ash has reached a new high, and the over - supply expectation is intensifying. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is high, which restricts the price. However, exports in November were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [63] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts and the month - spreads changed, and the spot prices in different regions remained stable [64] Glass - **Fundamentals**: Before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. The high inventory in the mid - stream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [87] - **Price Data**: On January 16, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts and the month - spreads changed significantly. For example, the glass 01 contract dropped to 0 yuan/ton from 941 yuan/ton on the previous day [88]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on manganese - silicon futures, dated January 14, 2026, and the research analyst is An Zhiyuan [1] Group 2: Futures Market - On January 14, 2026, the main manganese - silicon futures contract SM2605 opened at 5,900 yuan/ton, fluctuated weakly throughout the day, with a maximum of 5,940 yuan/ton, a minimum of 5,870 yuan/ton, and closed at 5,920 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 143,373 lots, and the trading volume was 4.233 billion yuan, with stable capital participation [2] Group 3: Spot Market - On January 14, the market price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. As of the week of January 9, the national average price index of silicon - manganese was 5,726 yuan/ton, 5,694 yuan/ton in the northern region, and 5,778 yuan/ton in the southern region, all up from the previous week. Some spot - futures enterprises' quotes remained stable, with Ningxia's quotes in the range of 05 + 350 to 05 + 390 and Inner Mongolia's in the range of 05 + 250 to 05 + 280. The market trading atmosphere was average, and spot transactions were mainly based on on - demand procurement [6] Group 4: Influencing Factors Industry News - On January 14, Mysteel reported that HBIS Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in January was 5,850 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the December price, and the procurement volume was 17,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons from December. In December, the national silicon - manganese output was 843,500 tons, a 0.62% month - on - month decrease and a 4.02% year - on - year decrease. As of January 8, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 382,500 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous period, indicating continuous inventory reduction [7] Technical Analysis - The closing price of the main contract SM2605 was 5,920 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages were flat, showing a short - term bearish trend. The trading volume increased moderately, indicating a slight increase in short - selling funds. The green column of the MACD indicator widened slightly, and short - selling momentum was released. The middle track of the Bollinger Band around 5,910 yuan/ton formed short - term support, and if broken, it may further decline to the 5,870 - 5,890 yuan/ton range [8] Group 5: Market Outlook - The core contradiction in the current manganese - silicon market is the game between "cost support and loose supply - demand". Rising manganese ore prices and steel mills' restocking needs support the price, but high inventory pressure and the off - season characteristics of terminal demand limit the upside. It is expected that the main contract will fluctuate in a range in the short term. Attention should be paid to the final pricing of mainstream steel mills such as HBIS, changes in manganese ore import policies, and the rhythm of inventory reduction [9]