仓单 现货 盘面 品种 项目 铁合金早报 | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5400 5400 | 0 0 | 50 -50 | 5660 5750 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5612 5576 | -24 -30 | 182 68 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5500 | 0 | -50 | 5830 | 05合约 | 5512 | -106 | 86 | | | 陕西#72 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 5650 | 09合约 | 5536 | -22 | 84 | | | 陕西#75 | 5900 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 48 | 24 | -132 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5660 | 0 | 10 | | 1-5月差 | 64 | 76 | -18 | | 贸易商价 | 天津#72 | 5800 | 50 | 10 ...

黑色产业链日报 2025/5/14 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观 点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在 不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不 能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许 可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东 亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

2025 年 5 月 14 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 硅铁：宏观情绪扰动，硅铁宽幅震荡 锰硅：宏观情绪扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 | | | 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 期货研究 锰硅2507-硅铁2507 160 -32 元/吨 锰硅2509-硅铁2509 274 -34 元/吨 1、铁合金在线：5 月 13 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5350-5400，宁夏 5350-5400，青海 5350-5450，甘肃 5400-5450（+50），内蒙 5350-5450；75#硅铁：陕西 5900-6000，宁夏 5850-5950，青海 5900-5950 （+50），甘肃 5950-6000，内蒙 5850-5900（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1020- 1050，75#1100-1120（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#南北主流价格在 5550-5750 元/吨（+100）区 间。（现金出厂含税报价） | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | ...

库存 成本利润 -10000 10000 30000 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000 150000 01/01 01/24 02/16 03/11 04/03 04/26 05/19 06/11 07/04 07/27 08/19 09/11 10/04 10/27 11/19 12/12 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：中国（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：宁夏（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 12, the manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 5866, up 1.80%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese remained stable at 5550. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, most of the additional tariffs imposed on goods since April 2 have been cancelled, leading to a significant recovery in the commodity market. Ferroalloys have negative production profits, low production enthusiasm on the supply side, and rising port inventories of imported manganese ore. The overall arrival of manganese ore in May is expected to increase month - on - month, and downstream hot metal production may peak and decline. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the market should be treated as oscillating. [2] - On May 12, the silicon - iron 2507 contract closed at 5636, up 1.55%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon - iron rose by 50 to 5510. From January to April this year, the national railway completed 194.7 billion yuan in fixed - asset investment, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Ferroalloys have negative production profits, and the maintenance of large factories in Ningxia affects market sentiment. The downstream metal magnesium market price has rebounded, but the overall demand for steel is still weak. The market should be treated as oscillating. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (Manganese - Silicon) main contract closing price was 5,866 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; SF (Silicon - Iron) main contract closing price was 5,636 yuan/ton, up 154 yuan. - SM futures contract positions decreased by 13,582 to 621,718 hands; SF futures contract positions increased by 7,963 to 481,715 hands. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese - silicon decreased by 8,516 to - 27,836 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in silicon - iron decreased by 4,344 to - 25,370 hands. - The SM 9 - 5 contract spread increased by 12 to 80 yuan/ton; the SF 9 - 5 contract spread decreased by 10 to - 60 yuan/ton. - SM warehouse receipts decreased by 881 to 118,816; SF warehouse receipts decreased by 32 to 18,876. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 remained at 5,550 yuan/ton; the price of Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B rose by 50 to 5,610 yuan/ton. - The price of Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 remained at 5,500 yuan/ton; the price of Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B rose by 50 to 5,520 yuan/ton. - The price of Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 rose by 50 to 5,500 yuan/ton; the price of Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B rose by 50 to 5,510 yuan/ton. - The manganese - silicon index average decreased by 105.42 to 5,497 yuan/ton; the SF main contract basis decreased by 104 to - 126 yuan/ton. - The SM main contract basis decreased by 108 to - 316 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore: Mn38 block in Tianjin Port remained at 32 yuan/ton - degree; the price of silica (98% in the northwest) remained at 210 yuan/ton. - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke remained at 1,070 yuan/ton; the price of semi - coke (medium - sized in Shenmu) remained at 670 yuan/ton. - Manganese ore port inventories increased by 23.10 to 394.80 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate decreased by 3.21 to 37.53%; the silicon - iron enterprise operating rate increased by 1.78 to 32.53%. - Manganese - silicon supply decreased by 10,780 to 172,025 tons; silicon - iron supply increased by 3,900 to 102,900 tons. - Manganese - silicon manufacturers' inventories increased by 25,300 to 207,100 tons; silicon - iron manufacturers' inventories decreased by 0.99 to 7.37 million tons. - The national steel mill inventory days of manganese - silicon decreased by 1.17 to 15.44 days; the national steel mill inventory days of silicon - iron decreased by 0.82 to 15.44 days. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese - silicon in the five major steel types decreased by 2,350 to 125,861 tons; the demand for silicon - iron in the five major steel types decreased by 224.10 to 20,336.30 tons. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.29 to 84.64%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.08 to 92.11%. - The monthly crude steel output increased by 16.8722 million tons to 92.8414 million tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - Ningxia Yinhe added maintenance for 2 45,000 - kVA silicon - iron furnaces, reducing daily output by 200 - 300 tons. - At the end of 2024, China's bond market balance was 177 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world. Bond financing accounted for 40% of the incremental social financing scale, and the bond trading volume reached 460 trillion yuan. - At the end of 2024, the global public debt exceeded 100 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 93% of the global GDP, and is expected to rise to about 100% in 2030. - From 2012 - 2022, the average annual growth rate of the equity value of state - owned enterprises was 13.8%. [2]

供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/0 ...

铁合金期货周报 宁 夏 结 算 电 价 下 调 ， 合 金 急 跌 后 反 弹 广发期货APP 微信公众号 作者：徐艺丹 联系方式：020-88818017 从业资格证：F03125507 投资咨询：Z0020017 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 品种观点 | | | 基本面来看，硅铁日产环比小幅回升，经过前期减产供应压力有所缓解，厂库延续降库，但整体库存仍处于中高 水平。需求端，铁水产量维持高位，钢厂利润修复，成材社库累库及表需冲高回落，关注后续出口边际变化。非 钢需求方面，金属镁节前厂家去库支撑价格，但下游需求采购谨慎，同时海外报价走高但询盘减少，买家对高价 接受力度有限。成本端，兰炭价格持稳，低库存叠加供应缩减，供需矛盾有限。电价方面，5月宁夏不再是电力现 货市场结算，电价或有回升可能，短期电价扰动告一段落。展望后市，短期硅铁供需矛盾有所缓解，成本端电价 变化仍需跟踪，兰炭暂时企稳，短期价格缺乏明显驱动，预计价格震荡运行。 区间震荡，区间参考5300- 5650 区间震荡，短期参考 5500-5900 本周海外矿山锰矿远期报价继续下调，伴随进口亏损利润加深，锰矿贸易商 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报5.6-5.9 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 原料端，锰矿市场成交冷清，现货价格持续偏弱运行。供应端，目前硅锰厂减停产计划仍存，盘面偏强震荡，硅锰现 货价格止跌企稳。需求端，下游钢厂多等待主流钢招进场，市场散单成交冷清，市场多持观望态度。 下周行情预测： 硅锰市场供需双弱，现货价格偏弱运行，预计下周锰硅价格偏弱为主。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-12-01 2023-07-01 2024-02-01 2024 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 11 日 锰硅：矿端报价扰动，锰硅宽幅震荡 硅铁：电费成本扰动，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 报告导读： 总体来看，锰硅近期供需格局边际收紧，市价较低，现货成交较弱，期货仓单提货明显；硅铁成本 重心下移，后续应继续关注合金厂的生产节奏变动和钢厂生产节奏的博弈，跟踪需求端高炉铁水产量的 节奏变动对双硅的需求支撑。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏弱，收于 5,482 元/吨，周环比变化-108 元/吨，成交 440,882 手，持仓 82,029 手，持仓环比变化-39,724 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势震荡，收于 5,758 元/吨，周环比变化 6 元/吨，成交 21326 手，持仓 42605 手，持仓环比变化-14,562 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 10 ...

钢材：供需趋于宽松，偏弱运行 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 相关会议措施对黑色系提振有限，市场情绪消退，市场回归产业逻辑。螺 | | | | 纹表需大幅下降 77 万吨，超过季节性降幅，库存不降反增，供需趋于宽松。 | | 螺纹钢 | 偏弱运行 | 行情大幅增仓下行，市场悲观情况较浓。中期关注高铁水背景下需求季节 | | | | 性回落带来的供需矛盾激化风险，短期关注下方 3000 支撑。【3000，3070】 | | | | 基本面方面，热卷供应小幅增加，需求降幅较大，库存出现上升。出口仍 | | 热卷 | 偏弱运行 | 在高位，但后期有回落风险。宏观消息提振有限，中期延续偏弱运行。【3130， | | | | 3200】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。供给短阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。单边短 | | | | 线参与，跨期正套持有。【680，71 ...