Group 1 - The short-term performance of A-shares before the Spring Festival may influence the market after the holiday, with historical data showing that in 16 years since 2010, there were 9 instances where the Shanghai Composite Index rose or fell in the first five trading days before the festival and then moved in the opposite direction on the first trading day after the festival [8][2] - Economic and profit expectations during the Spring Festival may improve, with anticipated favorable data for travel and consumption, as well as a potential rebound in real estate sales due to low base effects and strong policy support [9][2] - Liquidity is expected to remain loose during the Spring Festival, with the central bank likely to increase net injections to counter seasonal tightening, and stock market funds may maintain a certain level before accelerating back after the holiday [9][2] Group 2 - After a short-term adjustment, technology growth and cyclical sectors are expected to outperform, supported by policy and industry trends, with historical patterns indicating that leading sectors may regain strength post-adjustment [10][3] - Current observations suggest that technology growth and certain cyclical industries are likely to remain dominant, driven by supportive policies and ongoing industry trends, particularly in commercial aerospace and AI [10][3] - The consumption sector's short-term rebound may be a result of valuation recovery, but its sustainability is uncertain due to weak consumer confidence and the absence of a profit turning point [11][3] Group 3 - Industry allocation recommendations suggest a balanced approach towards technology growth, certain cyclical sectors, and consumption, with specific industries like automotive, military, beauty care, machinery, and communication expected to perform well in 2025 [11][3] - The current sentiment towards growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals, automotive, and computing is relatively low, indicating potential for future gains [11][3] - Suggested low-entry allocations include sectors with upward policy and industry trends, such as electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), media (AI applications, gaming), and healthcare [11][3]

Upstream Sector - In the upstream cyclical products, there is a price divergence, with only gold prices rising while silver and other industrial metals have declined[1] - The PPI for coal mining and washing has improved, with a year-on-year growth of -8.9% in December, up from -11.80% in November[41] - Brent crude oil prices have decreased by 6.2% to $66.30 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices fell by 4.7% to $62.14 per barrel[15] Midstream Sector - In the steel sector, iron ore and rebar prices have increased week-on-week, with rebar prices at 3,002 RMB per ton, up 1.6%[16] - The chemical products price index has decreased by 0.9% week-on-week, indicating a downward trend in major chemical product prices[16] - The shipping industry is experiencing a decline, with the Baltic Dry Index down by 5.6%[16] TMT Sector - The semiconductor sales cycle is on the rise, with a year-on-year growth of 22.9% in China[17] - The software industry has seen a cumulative profit growth of 7.3% year-on-year[17] - The film box office revenue in China has decreased by 69.11% year-on-year, indicating a significant drop in the media sector[17] Downstream Consumption - The price of Feitian Moutai has increased, supporting the strength of the liquor market[19] - The number of breeding sows in China has decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a decline in the agricultural sector[19] - The retail sales of consumer goods in December have shown a year-on-year decline of 0.9%[19] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The cumulative year-on-year decline in China's commercial housing sales area is 8.7%[20] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development investment is 17.2%[20] - The total trading volume in the two markets has increased, with the margin financing balance remaining high, indicating a robust brokerage environment[20]

Core Viewpoint - The monthly stock recommendations from brokerages in February indicate a clear trend towards technology growth and cyclical sectors, with high concentration in electronics, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, reflecting a consensus in the market for the spring rally [1][3]. Industry Summary Electronics Sector - The electronics sector remains a cornerstone for brokerage allocations, driven by expanding computing power demand, accelerated domestic substitution, and improved industry chain conditions. Companies like Haiguang Information are favored due to their core technology and industry position, indicating sustained institutional confidence in technology self-sufficiency and high-end manufacturing [3][4]. - There is increasing differentiation within the electronics sector, with funds favoring leading companies that demonstrate higher earnings certainty and support from industry trends [3]. Machinery Equipment Sector - The machinery equipment sector is highlighted for its significant role in the February stock recommendations, benefiting from manufacturing upgrades and equipment renewal demands, as well as investments in computing infrastructure and energy development. Brokerages note high visibility of orders and clear profit recovery rhythms, making these companies attractive during market style shifts [4]. - Companies in the equipment manufacturing sector that combine growth attributes with cyclical elasticity are more likely to attract long-term capital attention in the current macro environment [4]. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector is gaining traction due to strengthening cyclical logic, with global economic expectations improving and changes in resource supply-demand dynamics. Companies like Zijin Mining are frequently recommended due to their resource reserves, cost control, and global layout advantages [4]. - The sector not only presents short-term trading opportunities but also shows extended investment value in the context of long-term demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing [4]. Individual Stock Structure - The stock recommendations include both growth-oriented technology and manufacturing companies, as well as stable or cyclical stocks like Tencent Holdings and China Pacific Insurance, reflecting a balanced and optimized approach in portfolio construction by brokerages [5]. - This "steady progress" allocation strategy is becoming a significant consensus among institutions, emphasizing the importance of stability and flexibility in stock selection [5]. Market Outlook - Most brokerages maintain a cautiously optimistic view on the February market trend, noting that the spring rally window is still open and market sentiment has not significantly weakened. However, external uncertainties and internal structural differentiation persist, making rapid index increases unlikely [5]. - In this environment, focusing on selected stocks and understanding industry rotation may be more meaningful than merely betting on the index [5]. Operational Insights - Some institutions suggest investors pay attention to trading opportunities arising from post-holiday capital inflows and policy expectations, while remaining cautious of short-term price surges in certain sectors to avoid emotional buying [6]. - The February stock recommendations serve as an important observation sample for the market and reflect institutions' preliminary judgments on the investment themes for the year. The expectation of a continued spring rally suggests that technology growth and cyclical sectors may not be in opposition but could rotate in performance at different stages [6].

Fund Size Statistics - The top three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Scale Index ETF (¥15.406 billion), Cross-border Industry Index ETF (¥6.624 billion), and Strategy Index ETF (¥5.384 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Theme Index ETF (-¥26.004 billion), Cross-border Scale Index ETF (-¥1.807 billion), and Cross-border Theme Index ETF (¥0.203 billion) [9] - The top three equity ETF products by fund size change are: CSI 500 ETF (¥2.832 billion), Chemical ETF (¥2.386 billion), and HuShen 300 ETF (¥2.229 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF products by fund size change are: Communication ETF (-¥30.885 billion), Non-ferrous Metals ETF (-¥3.932 billion), and Gold Stock ETF (-¥2.963 billion) [13] Market Outlook - The macro timing model for February 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a historical 78.57% probability of the full A index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.37% [23] - A-shares are expected to experience a short-term volatile market, influenced by liquidity from overseas markets and the recent AI bubble discussions affecting tech growth stocks [23] - The recommendation is to adopt a balanced ETF allocation strategy due to the anticipated short-term fluctuations in the market [60]

Fund Size Statistics - The top three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Scale Index ETF (¥15.406 billion), Cross-Border Industry Index ETF (¥6.624 billion), and Strategy Index ETF (¥5.384 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Theme Index ETF (-¥26.004 billion), Cross-Border Scale Index ETF (-¥1.807 billion), and Cross-Border Theme Index ETF (¥0.203 billion) [9] - The top three equity ETF products by fund size change are: CSI 500 ETF (¥2.832 billion), Chemical ETF (¥2.386 billion), and HuShen 300 ETF (¥2.229 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF products by fund size change are: Communication ETF (-¥30.885 billion), Nonferrous Metals ETF (-¥3.932 billion), and Gold Stock ETF (-¥2.963 billion) [13] Market Outlook - The macro timing model for February 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a 78.57% probability of the full A index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.37% [23] - A-shares are expected to experience a short-term volatile market, influenced by liquidity from overseas markets and the recent AI bubble discussions affecting tech growth stocks [23] - The recommendation is to adopt a balanced ETF allocation strategy due to the anticipated short-term fluctuations in the market [60] Risk Assessment - Risks include potential model failure based on historical data, macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations, and unforeseen significant events [23]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The macro bearish factors dominate the market. The strong US dollar and domestic inventory accumulation suppress copper prices, but the tight supply at the mine end limits the decline. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [2][3] - Overseas mine closures and production disruptions intensify, and domestic copper concentrate processing fees are at a historically low level, providing long - term support for copper prices from the raw material side [2] - The growth in copper usage in the global energy transition and artificial intelligence fields provides structural support for copper prices [2] - The Fed's hawkish stance pushes up the US dollar index, and LME inventories have reached an 11 - month high, suppressing copper prices [2] - Downstream enterprises took early holidays before the Spring Festival, resulting in a decline in the copper rod operating rate and low inventory - building demand [2] Group 2: Copper Futures Market Data Futures Price and Trading Volume - The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 100,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.45%, a position of 175,306, a weekly decline of 47,628 in position, and a trading volume of 267,263 [4] - The latest price of SHFE Copper Index Weighted is 100,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.49%, a position of 605,490, a weekly decline of 52,403 in position, and a trading volume of 746,409 [4] - The latest price of International Copper is 88,790 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.37%, a position of 5,575, a weekly decline of 885 in position, and a trading volume of 9,542 [4] - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 12,855 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 5.83%, a position of 239,014, a weekly decline of 38,282 in position, and a trading volume of 30,234 [4] - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 572.05 US dollars, with a weekly decline of 8.94%, a position of 124,581, a weekly decline of 10,587 in position, and a trading volume of 61,610 [4] Group 3: Copper Spot Market Data Spot Price - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 101,140 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3,045 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 2.92% [8] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumao is 101,445 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,190 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.16% [8] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 101,070 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,520 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.48% [8] - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 101,260 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,520 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.48% [10] Spot Premium - The latest Shanghai Non - ferrous premium is 40 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 190 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 126.67% [10] - The latest Shanghai Wumao premium is - 105 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 100 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.78% [10] - The latest Guangdong Southern Reserve premium is - 75 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 105 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 58.33% [10] - The latest Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium is - 55 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 110 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 66.67% [10] - The latest LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium is - 77.58 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 16.18 US dollars and a weekly decline rate of 17.26% [10] - The latest LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is - 95.25 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 20.54 US dollars and a weekly increase rate of 27.49% [10] Group 4: Copper Advanced Data - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 426.83 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 320.8 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 302.56% [11] - The latest copper concentrate TC is - 50.2 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 0 and a weekly change rate of 0% [11] - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 4.2278, with a weekly decline of 0.0586 and a weekly decline rate of - 1.37% [11] - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,117.91 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3,513.52 yuan and a weekly decline rate of - 52.98% [11] Group 5: Copper Inventory Data Warehouse Receipt and Inventory - The latest total SHFE copper warehouse receipt is 160,172 tons, with a weekly increase of 3,321 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.12% [15] - The latest total International Copper warehouse receipt is 12,667 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,052 tons and a weekly increase rate of 19.33% [15] - The latest SHFE copper inventory is 233,004 tons, with a weekly increase of 7,067 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.13% [15] - The latest LME copper registered warehouse receipt is 160,625 tons, with a weekly increase of 28,150 tons and a weekly increase rate of 21.25% [15] - The latest LME copper cancelled warehouse receipt is 19,950 tons, with a weekly decline of 23,650 tons and a weekly decline rate of - 54.24% [15] - The latest LME copper inventory is 180,575 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,500 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.56% [17] - The latest COMEX copper registered warehouse receipt is 358,636 tons, with a weekly increase of 11,787 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.4% [17] - The latest COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipt is 227,793 tons, with a weekly decline of 491 tons and a weekly decline rate of - 0.22% [17] - The latest COMEX copper inventory is 586,429 tons, with a weekly increase of 11,296 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.96% [17] - The latest copper mine port inventory is 52.3 million tons, with a weekly decline of 4.6 million tons and a weekly decline rate of - 8.08% [17] - The latest social inventory is 41.82 million tons, with a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [17] Group 6: Copper Mid - stream Production Data Production Volume - In December 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.326 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, and the cumulative production was 14.72 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [19] - In December 2025, the monthly copper product production was 2.229 million tons, with a year - on - year decline of 3.4%, and the cumulative production was 24.814 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [19] Capacity Utilization - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 51.1%, with a month - on - month decline of 12.21 and a year - on - year decline of 15.06 [21] - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 20.59%, with a month - on - month decline of 3 and a year - on - year decline of 6.9 [21] - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 64.48%, with a month - on - month decline of 1.96 and a year - on - year decline of 9.8 [22] - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper rods was 56.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.64 and a year - on - year decline of 0.46 [22] - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 61.59%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.9 and a year - on - year decline of 18.99 [22] Group 7: Copper Element Import Data - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper concentrates was 2.704298 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the cumulative import was 30.319797 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import of anode copper was 61,340 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 23%, and the cumulative import was 749,961 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 16% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import of cathode copper was 258,549 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 30%, and the cumulative import was 3,344,261 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 11% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import of scrap copper was 238,977 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the cumulative import was 2,342,580 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% [24] - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper products was 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 21.8%, and the cumulative import was 5,320,000 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 6.4% [24]

. 镍不锈钢产业链周报 2026/2/6 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：陈乃轩 Z0023138 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留 ...

Core Insights - The price of tungsten, known as "industrial teeth," has been continuously rising, attracting market attention due to its role as a key raw material in high-end manufacturing sectors such as photovoltaic tungsten wire and electric vehicle motors [1] Price Trends - As of February 6, the price of 65% black tungsten concentrate is reported at 675,000 RMB per standard ton, an increase of 46.7% since the beginning of 2026 [2] - The price of 65% white tungsten concentrate is reported at 674,000 RMB per standard ton, up 46.8% year-to-date. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) is priced at 990,000 RMB per ton, reflecting a 47.8% increase. European APT prices range from 1,100 to 1,398 USD per ton (equivalent to 676,000 to 859,000 RMB per ton), up 35.8% [3] - Tungsten powder is priced at 1,650 RMB per kilogram, a 52.8% increase, while tungsten carbide powder is at 1,600 RMB per kilogram, up 53.9% [3] - In January, the average price of 65% black tungsten concentrate in China was 510,600 RMB per ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 26.69% and a year-on-year increase of 254.75% [3] Supply Constraints - Global tungsten production is projected to be approximately 82,800 tons in 2024, with a slight increase to 85,500 tons by 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate of less than 2%. Factors such as tightening resource endowments, extended development cycles, and insufficient capital investment are reinforcing supply constraints [4] - The current supply situation remains tight, with challenges including reduced mining quotas, declining shipments from tungsten mines, and unstable import volumes, leading to a pronounced supply-demand imbalance in the global tungsten market [4] Demand Dynamics - Explosive growth in demand, particularly in the renewable energy and photovoltaic sectors, is identified as the core driver for rising tungsten powder prices. The strategic value of tungsten as a key functional material is increasingly recognized, enhancing overall industry prosperity [6] - By 2025, the market penetration rate of tungsten wire in silicon wafer cutting is expected to exceed 60%, marking a phase of scaled application. The industrialization of heterojunction (HJT) battery technology is anticipated to add approximately 6,400 tons of new tungsten demand by 2026 [6] Company Performance - Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549) reported a revenue of 46.469 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.37%, with a net profit of 2.311 billion RMB, up 35.08% [7] - Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842) forecasts a net profit of 125 million to 180 million RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 239.66% to 301.11%. The company benefits from improved pricing power and increased sales volume, particularly in hard alloy and photovoltaic tungsten wire products [8] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry (002378) anticipates a net profit of 260 million to 320 million RMB for 2025, reflecting a growth of 51% to 86%. The company leverages its full tungsten industry chain advantages to enhance product performance and stabilize supply capabilities [8]

Group 1 - China has significantly increased its imports of Russian oil, surpassing 100 million tons in 2023 and projected to reach 108 million tons in 2024, accounting for 20% of its total oil imports [1] - The "Power of Siberia" pipeline delivered over 11.7 billion cubic meters of gas to China last winter, nearly doubling the previous year's volume, with a projected annual supply increase to 44 billion cubic meters [3] - The trade between China and Russia has shifted to local currencies, with over 95% of transactions now conducted in RMB and Rubles, and the Russian Finance Minister reporting a 99.1% settlement in local currencies [3] Group 2 - China's exports to Russia have surged, particularly in automobiles, machine tools, and chips, filling the gap left by Western companies [3] - The economic relationship between China and Russia is strengthening, with Russia shifting its energy exports towards China, now relying on it for over half of its energy exports [5] - The collaboration is characterized as normal business transactions, with both countries benefiting from favorable pricing and stable supply chains, without any coercion involved [5]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the bull market is still ongoing, encouraging confidence while suggesting a reduction in the slope expectation of the market, indicating that the lower limit of the market is continuously rising [2][12] - The report highlights that over 20% of companies in six industries, including utilities, non-ferrous metals, and automotive, are expected to see strong profit growth, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [3][21] - The report identifies three categories of companies to focus on: those with accelerating profit growth, those experiencing a turnaround from negative to positive profits, and those with profit growth transitioning from negative to positive [4][26] Group 2 - The report outlines a "net profit gap" strategy that has significantly outperformed the market since 2025, with two portfolios achieving returns over 100%, particularly in the coal and non-ferrous metals sectors [5][29] - The top five industries with the highest proportion of stocks showing net profit gaps include coal (8.1%), non-ferrous metals (5.1%), and communications (4.8%), indicating strong performance potential in these areas [5][32] - The report suggests that the A-share market is currently in a relatively safe environment, with room for expansion in the securities ratio, particularly in the TMT sector, which is expected to maintain its profitability advantage [6][34] Group 3 - The report recommends focusing on industries that are benefiting from PPI improvements and broad anti-involution trends, such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and power generation [6][35] - It also suggests a dual focus on technology and cyclical sectors, highlighting opportunities in AI applications, military industry, and core AI hardware [6][35] - The report indicates that the overall annual profit forecast for A-share companies shows a continuous improvement, with 52.3% of companies expected to report profit growth [17][18]