交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年1月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 数据来源：SHFE 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24140，基差+125；偏多。 3、库存：1月9日LME锌库存较上日减少275至105500吨，1月9日上期所锌库 存仓单较上日增加74吨至40919吨；中性。 1月9日期货交易所锌期货行情 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spring market of stock index futures is established, and the market is expected to continue rising, with the CSI 500 index potentially being the dominant variety among the four major indices [20][22]. - The sentiment in the bond market of treasury bond futures may ease, and there may be short - term trading opportunities in the medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - For agricultural products, the overall supply of protein meals is sufficient and the market is under pressure; the international sugar price fluctuates and declines while the domestic sugar price fluctuates slightly; the situation of the oil and fat sector depends on the MPOB report; other agricultural products also have their own market characteristics and trends [26][28][31]. - In the ferrous metal sector, steel prices continue to fluctuate, coking coal and coke prices are driven by funds and sentiment, iron ore prices are treated bearishly at high levels, and ferroalloy prices fluctuate strongly due to cost factors [60][62][65][69]. - For non - ferrous metals, precious metals such as gold and silver rise strongly due to geopolitical risks and non - farm data; other non - ferrous metals also have their own market dynamics and trends affected by various factors [72][73][75][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the price of crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical risks in the Middle East; other energy and chemical products also show different market trends affected by supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [121][123][127][133]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Investment Logic: Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen continuously, and the market has accelerated its rise in 2026. Economic data indicates an economic recovery, and the narrowing of the basis of stock index futures reflects investors' confidence. The market is expected to continue rising, and the CSI 500 index may be the dominant variety [20][21][22]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on IC and IM on dips; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2606 and short ETF; use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Logic Analysis: Although the overall repair trend of CPI and PPI continues, there are still structural problems. The bond market has been weak recently, but there may be short - term trading opportunities in medium - and long - term contracts [23][24]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on dips on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meals - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the cost pressure of soybeans is obvious, and the export prospects are not optimistic. Domestically, the subsequent supply of soybeans may decline, and the spot may be supported. The overall trend of meal products is expected to be volatile [27]. - Strategy Suggestion: Adopt a bearish approach for unilateral trading; wait and see for arbitrage; use a short straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the sugar price may be affected by the production in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the high processing cost and the bottom - building trend of the external market provide support, but there is also sales pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate [30]. - Trading Strategy: The international sugar price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. For the domestic sugar price, consider going long at the lower end of the range and shorting at the upper end; wait and see for arbitrage; sell put options [30][31]. Oil and Fat Sector - Logic Analysis: Recently, the oil and fat market has been affected by various factors and fluctuates. The inventory of the three major domestic oils is gradually decreasing, and the palm oil in Malaysia is expected to reduce production and inventory. The market situation is still uncertain [35]. - Trading Strategy: The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate in the short term with increased volatility; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Logic Analysis: The steel market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, demand, and raw material prices. The overall trend is to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - news and policy changes [61]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; short the coil - coal ratio and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread; wait and see for options [62]. Coking Coal and Coke - Logic Analysis: The recent rise in coking coal prices is mainly driven by funds and sentiment. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [64]. - Strategy Suggestion: Trade in a wide - range shock on a short - term basis; wait and see for arbitrage and options [65]. Iron Ore - Logic Analysis: The price of iron ore is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and funds. The supply is loose, and the domestic demand is expected to decline in the medium term. The price is treated bearishly at high levels [66][68]. - Strategy Suggestion: Go short lightly at high levels; wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Ferroalloys - Logic Analysis: For ferrosilicon, the supply may shrink in the future, and the demand and cost are expected to increase. For ferromanganese - silicon, the supply is stable, and the demand and cost also support the price. The overall price fluctuates strongly [70][71]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to the improvement of supply - demand and cost factors; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [71]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Logic Analysis: The non - farm data is mixed, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensify the safe - haven sentiment. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain strong in the short term [73]. - Trading Strategy: Enter the market on dips based on the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [75]. Platinum and Palladium - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment is generally tight, and the result of the 232 investigation is the focus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive than palladium. The market is waiting for the official news of the investigation [75][76]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on platinum on dips; be cautious when going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. Copper - Logic Analysis: The government's QE policy may lead to more actual monetary easing. In the short term, the domestic consumption is stagnant, but the LME inventory is decreasing. In the long term, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the consumption is growing. The price fluctuates strongly in the short term but maintains an upward trend [79]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton; wait and see for arbitrage and options [80]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical risks in the Middle East drive the oil price to rebound. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [122][123]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and trade in a wide - range shock; the domestic gasoline is strong, and the diesel is weak, and the oil futures spread is strong; wait and see for options [123]. Asphalt - Logic Analysis: The cost provides support, but the supply - demand is weak. The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [124][125]. - Trading Strategy: The situation is not provided in the report. Fuel Oil - Logic Analysis: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and the price fluctuates strongly. The high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak in the first quarter, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a short - term upward trend [127][129]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock with caution; pay attention to the FU59 positive spread arbitrage opportunity; wait and see for options [129]. Natural Gas - Logic Analysis: The international LNG price fluctuates at a low level. In the short term, the price is supported by cold weather, but in the long term, the supply is excessive. The HH price in the US is affected by weather and demand [130][131][132]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of TTF and JKM in the third quarter; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [132]. LPG - Logic Analysis: The geopolitical situation leads to a short - term premium, but the fundamental supply - demand does not support continuous price increases. The price is expected to be under pressure in the long term [133][135]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and be bearish on the far - month contracts in the medium - and long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [135]. PX & PTA - Logic Analysis: The downstream polyester production cuts increase, but the geopolitical disturbances strengthen the cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [135][136]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; conduct positive spread arbitrage of PX & PTA 3 and 5 contracts; wait and see for options [137]. BZ & EB - Logic Analysis: The inventory of pure benzene continues to increase, and the supply - demand of styrene is relatively balanced. The price of styrene is mainly affected by the cost [139][140]. - Strategy Suggestion: The price of styrene is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term; short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [140]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic Analysis: The supply may be adjusted, and the downstream polyester production cuts increase. The price has limited upward space and is expected to fluctuate weakly [142][144]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a weak - shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [144]. Short Fiber - Logic Analysis: The procurement sentiment is cautious, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [145]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [146]. Bottle Chip - Logic Analysis: Some bottle chip production devices are planned for maintenance, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the raw material cost [147][148]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [149]. Propylene - Logic Analysis: The supply improvement is limited, and the downstream factory procurement is active. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [150][152]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a short - term shock - upward trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [152]. Plastic PP - Logic Analysis: The PE and PP production has marginal cuts. The L 2605 contract can hold long positions, and the PP 2605 contract needs to pay attention to the pressure level [153][154]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the long positions of the L 2605 contract and set the stop - loss at 6600 points; wait and see for the PP 2605 contract and pay attention to the pressure at 6520 points; wait and see for arbitrage; sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract and set the stop - loss at 58.0 points [154]. Caustic Soda - Logic Analysis: The market sentiment improves, but the supply - demand contradiction continues. The price is expected to fluctuate [155][156]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a shock trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [157]. PVC - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weak. The cost provides support, and the export tax - refund policy has a great impact [158][160]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage and options [160]. Soda Ash - Logic Analysis: The futures price is strong this week, but the high inventory pressure needs to be tested. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [160][161][164]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options at a high level in the far - month [164]. Glass - Logic Analysis: The futures price fluctuates widely this week. The cold - repair of production lines is concentrated, and the inventory shows a downward trend. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term [165][166][168]. - Trading Strategy: Do not operate against the sentiment, wait and see in the long term and short at an appropriate time; wait and see for arbitrage and options [168]. Methanol - Logic Analysis: The international device operation rate is low, the supply in China is loose, and the Middle East situation provides support [169]. - Trading Strategy: Avoid short positions temporarily and go long in the short term; pay attention to the 59 positive spread arbitrage; sell put options on dips [170]. Urea - Logic Analysis: The domestic production is at a high level, the international market has an impact on sentiment, and the demand is affected by various factors. The price fluctuates widely [171][172]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; hedging enterprises can pay attention to hedging opportunities [173]. Pulp - Logic Analysis: The market supply exceeds demand. The supply is stable, and the demand support is limited. The price fluctuates widely at a high level [173][174][176]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; aggressive investors can short a small amount near the previous high; wait and see for arbitrage and options [177]. Log - Logic Analysis: The spot price rebounds slightly. The market is affected by factors such as arrival volume and inventory. Attention should be paid to the delivery situation in Chongqing and Yantai [177][178]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; aggressive investors can arrange long positions in a small amount; pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse spread arbitrage; wait and see for options [180]. Offset Printing Paper - Logic Analysis: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The paper mill's price - holding intention is strong, but the valuation is low. It may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term [181]. - Strategy Suggestion: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage; sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [182][183]. Natural Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The supply is affected by disasters, and the inventory situation of different varieties is different [184][185][186]. - Trading Strategy: Hold the short positions of the RU 05 contract and set the stop - loss at 16135 points; wait and see for the NR 03 contract; hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread and set the stop - loss at +2950 points; sell the RU2605 call 17000 contract and set the stop - loss at 391 points [186][188]. Butadiene Rubber - Logic Analysis: The tire inventory accumulates for 5 consecutive weeks. The warehouse receipt situation of BR is different, and the inventory of tires also accumulates [189][190]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for the BR 03 contract; hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread and set the stop - loss at - 985 points; wait and see for options [190][191].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they tend to move upwards [2]. - For the black - series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - scale fluctuations [2]. - For precious metals, a bull spread combination strategy can be built as they are rebounding [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents data on the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2602) is 102,220, with a price increase of 1,940 and a trading volume of 30.38 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR**: The report provides the volume - to - open - interest PCR data for different metal options, which helps describe the strength and potential turning points of the underlying asset's market. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.58, with a change of 0.05 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: The pressure and support levels of each option's underlying asset are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of copper is 110,000, and the support point is 98,000 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: It shows the implied volatility data of various metal options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 31.57% [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations for Each Metal - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: Based on fundamental and market analysis, directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies are proposed. For example, a bull spread combination strategy can be constructed for directional trading, and a short - volatility seller option combination strategy for volatility trading [8]. - **Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Tin, and Lithium Carbonate**: Similar to copper, strategies for each metal are provided according to their fundamentals, market trends, and option factors [10][11][12]. - **Precious Metals** - **Silver**: Considering its fundamentals and market performance, a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy are recommended [13]. - **Black - Series** - **Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferroalloys, Industrial Silicon, and Glass**: Strategies for each product in the black - series are given, including directional, volatility, and spot hedging strategies, based on their supply - demand situations and market trends [14][15][16].

公司发布的三季报数据显示，前三季度公司共实现营业收入149.96亿元，同比增长24.23%，实现净利润 24.60亿元，同比增长42.39%，基本每股收益为0.8860元，加权平均净资产收益率17.87%。（数据宝） 山金国际股价创出历史新高，截至9:37，该股上涨2.12%，股价报25.98元，成交量722.18万股，成交金 额1.88亿元，换手率0.29%，该股最新A股总市值达721.39亿元，该股A股流通市值656.63亿元。 两融数据显示，该股最新（1月9日）两融余额为9.15亿元，其中，融资余额为9.11亿元，近10日减少 1453.15万元，环比下降1.57%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，山金国际所属的有色金属行业，目前整体涨幅为1.10%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有88只，涨幅居前的有安泰科技、兴业银锡、晓程科技等，涨幅分别为10.00%、5.99%、 5.75%。股价下跌的有48只，跌幅居前的有东方钽业、翔鹭钨业、江南新材等，跌幅分别为2.94%、 2.42%、2.27%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that aggressive capital is significantly increasing its positions in the market, with A-share financing balance reaching a historical high of over 2.6 trillion yuan, indicating a heated market sentiment [1] - Leveraged funds are primarily favoring the electronics, non-ferrous metals, and defense industries, with net purchases exceeding 8 billion yuan each in a single week [3] - A recent investor survey shows that over 40% of investors are optimistic about the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4,200 points next week, with increased confidence in the commercial aerospace and satellite internet sectors [4] Group 2 - The movement of leveraged funds often indicates the strength of short-term market trends, suggesting a potential for volatility if the trend reverses [4] - The strategy recommended includes respecting market trends while remaining cautious, focusing on sectors with sustained capital inflow that align with industry trends, such as electronics and military industry, while avoiding overbought stocks [4] - Attention should be paid to sectors and stocks that have seen significant net repayments of leveraged funds, as this may signal a retreat in market enthusiasm [4]

87家公司公布了全年业绩预告，业绩预增公司有62家，占比71.26%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至1月12日，已经有87家公司公布了2025年度业绩预告。业绩预告类型显 示，预增公司62家、预盈5家，合计报喜公司比例为77.01%；业绩预降、预亏公司分别有10家、4家。 | 600983 | 惠而浦 | 2026.01.06 | 150.00 | 10.29 | 7.64 | 家用电 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 器 | | 300748 | 金力永 | 2026.01.08 | 144.00 | 37.80 | 10.82 | 有色金 | | | 磁 | | | | | 属 | | 002925 | 盈趣科 技 | 2026.01.09 | 138.55 | 20.70 | 22.20 | 电子 | | 300389 | 艾比森 | 2026.01.08 | 126.71 | 17.51 | 7.89 | 电子 | | 002258 | 利尔化 | 2026.01.07 | 122.91 | 13.92 | 6.6 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, and nickel on January 12, 2026 [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 12, 2026, the domestic spot price was 100330, the LME price was 12915, and the ratio was 7.79. The three - month domestic price was 101580, the LME price was 12873, and the ratio was 7.83. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 7.92, with a loss of 1676.26, and the profit for spot exports was 962.00 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24040, the LME price was 3109, and the ratio was 7.73. The three - month domestic price was 24015, the LME price was 3153, and the ratio was 5.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.35, with a loss of 1902.57 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24030, the LME price was 3136, and the ratio was 7.66. The three - month domestic price was 24385, the LME price was 3128, and the ratio was 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.33, with a loss of 2107.33 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 137250, the LME price was 17279, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.01, with a loss of 640.56 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17200, the LME price was 1996, and the ratio was 8.60. The three - month domestic price was 17395, the LME price was 2040, and the ratio was 11.74. The equilibrium ratio for spot imports was 8.54, with a profit of 132.82 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 12, 2026, the differences between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 440, 610, 670, and 610 respectively, while the theoretical differences were 607, 1112, 1626, and 2139 [3] - **Zinc**: The differences were 40, 85, 120, and 135, and the theoretical differences were 223, 351, 480, and 609 [3] - **Aluminum**: The differences were 545, 600, 635, and 670, and the theoretical differences were 230, 361, 492, and 623 [3] - **Lead**: The differences were 60, 100, 125, and 140, and the theoretical differences were 211, 319, 426, and 534 [3] - **Nickel**: The differences between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were 3090, 3220, 3580, and 3900 [3] - **Tin**: The difference between the 5 - month and 1 - month contracts was 90, and the theoretical difference was 7248 [3] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The differences between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 730 and 1170 respectively, while the theoretical differences were 275 and 893 [3] - **Zinc**: The differences were - 110 and - 70, and the theoretical differences were 83 and 223 (or 64 and 285) [3] - **Lead**: The differences were 95 and 155, and the theoretical differences were 109 and 224 [3] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 12, 2026, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc were 4.23, 4.17, 5.84, 1.02, 1.40, and 0.72 in Shanghai and 4.12, 4.14, 6.34, 0.99, 1.53, and 0.65 in London [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a "volatile" phase since mid-December 2025, driven by reduced overseas uncertainties, a stronger RMB, and intensive policy support in various industries [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The reduction of overseas uncertainties is attributed to the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike [1] - The appreciation of the RMB enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets, creating favorable conditions for a recovery in market risk appetite [1] - There is a significant influx of funds into the market, with the A500 ETF experiencing rapid capital inflow and the margin trading balance surpassing 2.6 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on "two main lines + two auxiliary lines" for investment strategies [1] - Main Line 1 emphasizes opportunities in technology innovation and growth sectors, particularly in key areas such as artificial intelligence, embodied intelligence, new energy, controllable nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and aerospace [1] - Main Line 2 highlights the gradual implementation of anti-involution policies, with a clear profit recovery path in the manufacturing and resource sectors, recommending attention to industries like non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and power equipment [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 0.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.88%, with notable gains in tech stocks like Meituan and Baidu, both increasing over 2% [1] - Lithium stocks showed strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium both rising over 4%, while the precious metals sector also strengthened, with Zijin Mining up nearly 3% and China Aluminum increasing over 2% [1] - Citic Securities anticipates a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence in the Hong Kong stock market by 2026, driven by internal "15th Five-Year Plan" catalysts and external economic stimulus [1] Group 2 - Zheshang International views the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market as still weak, with a slight decline in the funding environment, but maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the mid-term market trends [2] - The firm highlights sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and AI technology, as well as low-valuation state-owned enterprises [2] - The expected performance of the Hong Kong stock market in spring 2026 is projected to be driven by "AI applications, PPI improvement, and expanded domestic demand," with a recommendation to focus on quality stocks in these areas [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The market is characterized by a game between industrial and secondary funds, with a wide - range volatile movement [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by nickel - iron, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Tariff adjustments are beneficial to short - term demand, and the market is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the downstream production cut situation [2]. - Polysilicon: The market will move within a range [2][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Data on nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price differentials of related products in the industrial chain, are presented. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 139,090, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,860 [5]. - **News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China has implemented export license management for some steel products, Indonesia may revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, plan to cut nickel ore production, and some mines face potential fines [5][6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: Comprehensive data on lithium carbonate futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price differentials in the industrial chain, are provided. For instance, the closing price of the 2601 contract is 138,700 [10]. - **News**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price has increased, 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate from Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium mine have arrived at Yangpu Port, and there are changes in the export tax - rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [12]. Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Data on industrial silicon and polysilicon futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, price differentials, and inventory levels, are shown. For example, the closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,715, and the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 51,300 [13]. - **News**: Japan's TOYO has signed a supply agreement with a US polysilicon manufacturer, and there are details about the polysilicon production capacity in the US [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15].