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农业农村部:生猪养殖连续14个月盈利,七八月出栏量将有所减少
Core Insights - China's pork production and consumption account for approximately 60% of total meat consumption, indicating that stability in pig farming is crucial for the overall livestock industry [1] - As of mid-2023, the number of pigs slaughtered reached 36.619 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, while the pig inventory stood at 42.447 million, up 2.2% year-on-year [1] - The average price of pigs in the second week of July was 15.09 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 0.9% increase from the previous week but an 18.5% decrease year-on-year [1] Industry Analysis - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has reported that pig farming has remained profitable for 14 consecutive months since May of the previous year, aided by timely warnings about excess production capacity and guidance for leading enterprises to adjust their output [1] - The current market conditions show a strong supply but weak demand for pigs, leading to downward pressure on prices [1] - Monitoring data indicates a 0.8% decrease in the inventory of pigs over five months old in June, suggesting a potential reduction in pig slaughtering in July and August, which may help stabilize prices and maintain farming profitability [2] - The inventory of breeding sows was recorded at 40.43 million, exceeding the normal holding capacity of 39 million by 3.7%, indicating that production capacity is still within a reasonable range [2] - Future efforts by the Ministry will focus on capacity adjustment and policy stabilization to promote steady development in pig production, including timely market warnings and the elimination of low-yield sows [2]
金十期货7月17日讯,据农业农村部畜牧兽医局局长黄保续称,前期各级农业农村部门通过及时释放产能过剩预警信号、引导头部企业有序调减产能等调控措施,自去年5月份以来,生猪养殖已经连续14个月保持盈利。针对近期猪价存在的一定下行压力,我们已经提前释放了市场预警信息,指导头部企业合理调减产能,控制出栏节奏。下一步,农业农村部将重点抓好两方面工作,促进生猪生产稳定发展。一是调产能。加密发布市场预警信息,引导有序出栏,加快淘汰低产母猪和弱仔猪,适应性调整产能,促进供需均衡。二是稳政策。落实地方生猪稳产稳价责任,优化生猪
news flash· 2025-07-17 08:12
Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of stabilizing pig production and prices, implementing measures to optimize pig production capacity regulation in response to recent price pressures [1] Group 1: Production Capacity Regulation - The agricultural authorities have been releasing warnings about excess production capacity and guiding leading enterprises to orderly reduce production capacity since May of last year, resulting in 14 consecutive months of profitability in pig farming [1] - Future efforts will focus on two main areas: adjusting production capacity and stabilizing policies [1] Group 2: Policy Implementation - The Ministry will enhance the release of market warning information to guide orderly market exits, accelerate the elimination of low-yield sows and weak piglets, and adjust production capacity to promote supply-demand balance [1] - The Ministry will also ensure the implementation of local responsibilities for stabilizing pig production and prices, optimize production capacity regulation measures, and maintain routine prevention and control of African swine fever [1]
牧原股份连续两季减产!政策驱动供给收缩,生猪养殖估值修复在即?
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-07-17 06:33
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the livestock industry, leading to a focus on market-driven capacity reduction and price expectations [1][3] - The livestock theme ETF, the Livestock Breeding ETF (516670), has attracted significant capital inflow, with nearly 62 million yuan net inflow on July 16, ranking first among its peers [1] - The reduction in breeding sows is evident, with the number of breeding sows recorded at 40.42 million as of the end of May, showing a downward trend [1][3] Group 2 - Companies are actively implementing measures to control the number of breeding sows, with leading firms like Muyuan Foods reducing their breeding sow inventory by 54,000 heads to 3.43 million, marking two consecutive quarters of reduction [1][3] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs has decreased, with June's average weight at 90.3 kg, down 0.58% month-on-month and 2.11% year-on-year, influenced by policy guidance and high temperatures [3][6] - The livestock sector is expected to maintain a reasonable price stability in the short to medium term due to the policy-driven reduction of breeding sows, control of secondary fattening, and weight reduction [3][6] Group 3 - The overall valuation level of the pig sector remains attractive, with the latest valuation of the China Securities Livestock Index at 2.59 times PB, which is less than 9% of its historical percentile [6] - Long-term stable conditions in the pig farming industry are anticipated to sustain a certain level of profitability, with companies that excel in management and cost efficiency expected to maintain good profitability [6] - The demand side is expected to support pork consumption, with the domestic economy's stability and resilience enhancing the outlook for pig prices and the overall performance of the pig sector [6] Group 4 - The Livestock Breeding ETF (516670) closely tracks the China Securities Livestock Index, covering over 60% of the weight of stocks related to pig farming, including major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [6] - The ETF also includes upstream and downstream concepts related to pig farming, such as vaccines and feed, accounting for nearly 40% of its composition [6]
供应增加,猪价承压,政策托底
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 02:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Long - term: Supply increases, demand peaks, and it's an era of small profits. A profit of 200 yuan per pig may be the price ceiling. Macroscopically, the government promotes a reasonable recovery of prices and uses reserve purchases to support the market. In terms of supply and demand, supply is expected to increase continuously after July (except for a slight decline in July), and the supply growth rate is faster than the demand growth rate before November. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow at the end of the year. Pig prices are expected to be strong from July to August, then gradually decline under pressure, and have a seasonal rebound at the end of the year. Spot prices are expected to range from 13 - 16 yuan/kg, and futures prices from 12.5 - 15 yuan/kg. Opportunities to short at high prices can be considered from July to August, and industrial clients can consider selling hedging for far - month contracts after the high in the third quarter [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Long - term: Stable Supply, Peak Demand, and Era of Small Profits 3.1.1 Supply Dimension - **Concentration Increase and Stable Capacity**: Currently, the proportion of small - scale farmers' pig sales is 31.9% (91.3% in 2000), and that of large - scale enterprises is 68.1% (8.7% in 2000). Group farms are expanding rapidly, and small - scale farmers are exiting. With the increase in the concentration of large - scale breeding enterprises, their influence on pig prices has increased. The production capacity will be relatively stable as large - scale enterprises have stronger anti - risk capabilities [7]. - **Improvement in Production Efficiency**: There is still much room for improvement in China's pig production efficiency compared with foreign countries. For example, Denmark's PSY is as high as 34.14, while the UK's is 26.64. In 2022, the daily weight gain in Denmark and Sweden exceeded 1000 grams. With stable and slightly increasing capacity, higher large - scale proportion, and improved production efficiency, the supply from leading enterprises will continue to increase [10]. 3.1.2 Consumption Dimension - **Peak in Pork Consumption**: In 2014 and 2023, pig prices were low and there were breeding losses, indicating oversupply. The similar pork production in 2014 and 2023 shows that domestic demand may have saturated at around 58 million tons, suggesting that China's pork consumption may have peaked in 2014 [13]. 3.1.3 Supply - Demand and Profit - **Gradually Loosening Supply - Demand and Small Profits**: China's population decline is faster than expected, which will lead to a decrease in pork consumption in the long run. The total pork consumption is the product of the total population and per - capita consumption. With a negative population growth and a possible peak in per - capita pork consumption, the total demand is weakening. A profit of about 200 yuan per pig corresponds to a cost increase of 2 yuan/kg [17][18]. 3.2 Medium - and Short - Term: Sufficient Supply and Lower Price Center 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Adequate Capacity**: As of the end of May 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, 103.64% of the normal inventory of 39 million, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, indicating sufficient breeding sow capacity [21]. - **Weak Will to Reduce Capacity**: There is a lack of strong motivation among producers to reduce production capacity as shown by relevant profit and sow culling data [23][24][25]. - **Continuous Improvement in Production Efficiency**: Indicators such as the breeding - farrowing rate, piglet survival rate, litter size of healthy piglets, and fattening pig survival rate have shown an upward trend, indicating continuous improvement in production efficiency [29]. - **Increasing Slaughter**: In the first half of the year, the national pig slaughter was 366.19 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Except for a slight decline in July, the slaughter volume is expected to increase continuously, and the pig price center is expected to decline accordingly [36]. - **Increasing Second - Fattening Pressure**: The enthusiasm for second - fattening was similar to last year from February to April this year, reaching a peak in mid - April and then declining rapidly. However, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has recently increased rapidly, indicating that the supply pressure is postponed, and the subsequent second - fattening slaughter pressure will increase [39]. - **Increasing Slaughter Weight**: This year's pig slaughter weight is at a four - year high, with an average increase of 3 kg compared to last year. Due to low feed costs, enterprise breed improvement, and favorable standard - fat price spreads, large - scale enterprises have generally increased the slaughter weight. The game between large - scale enterprises and small - scale farmers makes weight reduction uncertain [43]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Seasonal Weakening of Slaughter Volume**: The pig slaughter volume shows a seasonal weakening trend [44]. 3.2.3 Price - **Widening Standard - Fat Price Spread and Rebounding Piglet Price**: The standard - fat price spread has widened, and the piglet price has rebounded [46]. 3.2.4 Policy - **CPI and Policy Actions**: The government aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices. Relevant policies include large - scale enterprises not increasing the number of breeding sows, reducing the slaughter weight to 120 kg, and banning the second - fattening of the head part [51]. - **Pork Reserve Early - Warning and Adjustment Mechanism**: The mechanism has different early - warning levels and corresponding reserve adjustment measures for both excessive price drops and rises. As of June 11, the official pig - grain ratio was 6.12, in the third - level early - warning, and frozen meat reserve purchases were initiated in advance [52][54].
上游出栏,猪价承压
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 01:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating Most of the industries in the report are rated as "oscillating", with the exception of the log industry which is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the sugar industry which is expected to "oscillate weakly" in the long - term and "oscillate" in the short - term [7][8][9][10][12][14][16][17][18]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related industries, finding that most industries are currently in an oscillating state. Some industries face supply - demand imbalances, such as the oversupply in the hog industry; others are affected by factors like weather, policies, and trade relations, such as the possible weather - related speculation in natural rubber and the impact of trade agreements on protein meal [1][7][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Oscillating and differentiating, with soybean and rapeseed oils oscillating strongly yesterday. - **Logic**: Good growth of US soybeans, a decrease in US soybean oil inventory, an increase in the expected demand for soybean oil in biodiesel, and the Brazilian biodiesel blending ratio increase. However, there is also pressure from the increase in palm oil production and the high inventory of domestic rapeseed oil [7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Due to the signing of the Sino - Australian trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal oscillated and slightly declined. - **Logic**: Abroad, the growth of US soybeans is smooth, but the export prospects are worrying; Brazil's exports are still high. Domestically, the signing of the Sino - Australian memorandum implies new Australian seed imports, with supply pressure leading to weak spot prices, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be strong in the long - term [8]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot transactions are light, and futures and spot prices oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded slightly during the day and then fell back. On the spot side, supply at ports and deep - processing plants decreased, and there were price adjustments at some deep - processing plants. Deep - processing production and consumption data changed slightly, and there is a risk of supply shortage before the new grain is listed in large quantities [9][10]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Upstream slaughtering puts pressure on hog prices. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and rebounded, and farmers are still reluctant to sell standard hogs. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and there is room for an increase in hog slaughter in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the current production capacity is still high. The demand for pork has increased week - on - week, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market has positive sentiment, but in the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure in the third quarter [1][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the expected increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rubber price rose rapidly at the end of trading yesterday, possibly due to weather - related speculation about a typhoon landing in Hainan Island or external capital. The trading logic follows the macro - sentiment, and the fundamentals are currently stable. The supply is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable [12][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The futures price followed the commodity adjustment and then rebounded due to the impact of natural rubber. The upward driving force is not obvious, but there is support from the macro - environment and the improvement in butadiene trading. It is expected to oscillate within a range [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices increased with increased positions, breaking through the 14,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, the cotton market is loose, and the new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase in production. The demand is in the off - season, but the current commercial inventory is low. Yesterday, the futures price increased with increased positions, but there are multiple factors restricting further increases, and there is a risk of decline when new cotton is listed in large quantities [14]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Logic**: In the medium - and long - term, sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected supply surplus in the 25/26 sugar - making season. In the short - term, the decline in Brazilian sugar production and high domestic sales rates support sugar prices, but the increase in Brazilian production and exports and domestic imports will increase supply pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The trend is dominated by the macro - environment, with a stalemate - type fluctuation. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the supply - demand relationship is in a stalemate. The upward driving force comes from the macro - environment, but there is pressure at 5200 - 5300 yuan. In the short - term, there is a slight rebound space, and in the medium - term, there may be a phased increase, but the height is limited [17]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: There are few fundamental contradictions, and the short - term futures price oscillates. - **Logic**: Spot prices are weak due to the impact of delivery products, and the cost of importers has increased. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand is stable, and the market is in the bottom - building stage. There is no clear driving force for upward or downward movement in the short - term [18][19].
775家深市公司“剧透”上半年业绩 近六成实现正增长
截至7月15日,深市已有775家上市公司披露2025年半年度业绩预告,其中453家公司预计上半年净利润 实现同比增长,占比近六成。 据统计,超110家公司预计上半年净利润同比增长超过100%,355家公司预计上半年净利润同比增速超 过50%,405家公司预计上半年净利润同比增长超过30%。此外,近百家公司预计将扭亏为盈。 截至7月15日,已披露半年度业绩预告的深市公司涉及30个申万一级细分行业,其中20个行业的预计净 利润上限合计为正,25个行业的预计净利润上限实现正增长。盈利规模排名靠前的行业包括农林牧渔、 电子、有色金属、基础化工、机械设备等。 龙头公司继续发挥引领作用 深市市值排名前100的公司中,21家已披露业绩预告,其中20家实现同比增长,预计合计实现净利润512 亿元至569亿元,牧原股份、新易盛、TCL科技等公司净利润同比增速超过100%,继续发挥引领作用。 7月10日,牧原股份发布2025年半年度业绩预告称,预计上半年实现归母净利润102亿元至107亿元,同 比增长1129.97%至1190.26%。经营业绩大幅提升的主要原因是公司生猪出栏量较去年同期上升,导致 收入上升,且生猪养殖成本较去年 ...
如何解读6月生猪产能数据
2025-07-16 15:25
Summary of Conference Call on Pig Industry Data Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming industry in China, specifically discussing the trends in pig production, pricing, and government policies affecting the sector. Key Points and Arguments Pig Production and Capacity - From January to June 2025, the external sales of pork decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the number of sows eliminated increased by 7.6% year-on-year, indicating structural adjustments in production capacity [1][2] - The overall capacity of breeding sows is slightly declining, with a current count of approximately 4,050 heads compared to a peak of 4,080 heads earlier this year [3] - In June 2025, the capacity of breeding sows showed a slight increase across all scales of farms, although specific government data has not been released [6] Pricing Trends - The price of fat pigs remained stable overall, with fluctuations observed in May and June, where prices rebounded from nearly 14 yuan to close to 16 yuan due to the sales strategies of large enterprises [4] - The average price for the year is projected to be around 15.4 yuan, slightly lower than the previous year's average of 15.6 yuan, but profits remain higher due to effective supply control [5] Government Policies and Market Impact - The government aims to reduce the number of breeding sows, but the actual trend shows a slight increase in numbers across various farm sizes [8] - Policies implemented include reducing the average weight of slaughtered pigs and banning the issuance of breeding permits, which are expected to take effect fully on July 20 [8][10] - The government is expected to strengthen regulations on slaughter permits to combat the issue of "secondary breeding," which has been driving up market prices [9][11] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply situation from January to June 2025 is slightly lower or stable compared to the previous year, with a cumulative slaughter increase of 14% reported [5] - The birth rate of piglets has shown fluctuations, with a strong demand from large enterprises and a reduction in the number of breeding sows by smaller enterprises [7][21] - The overall supply for the second half of the year is expected to be higher than the first half, particularly in the fourth quarter, which will see increased supply compared to the third quarter [18][19] Future Price Expectations - The weight of fat pigs is expected to be controlled around 120 kg, with prices projected to range between 14 and 16 yuan for the year [17] - If consumer demand improves during the peak season, prices may see a slight increase, but overall growth is expected to be limited [17] Miscellaneous Insights - The impact of the current pandemic on national production capacity has been minimal, with quick recovery observed even in affected regions [20] - The monitoring data indicates that the weight of fat pigs has remained stable at around 124.2 kg for the past four months, despite some discrepancies with third-party data [13] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the pig farming industry, highlighting production trends, pricing dynamics, government interventions, and future expectations.
2025年上半年生猪产业数据的相关思考
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 08:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 'year-on-year growth' of the current data has limited practical significance, and the market should focus on the relative strength between the current supply increase and the increase already reflected in the futures market [7]. - The current pig price is in the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases, and active/passive capacity reduction has not yet started [10]. - The most likely way to reduce capacity this year is passive capacity reduction driven by diseases, but large - cycle market trends still await active capacity reduction driven by low prices [12]. - The main trading logic of live - hog futures this year is the bearish logic of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectations are basically fulfilled, it trades the basis repair logic under different drivers [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 'Year - on - Year Growth' Effective Significance Is Insufficient - Due to capacity adjustments in 2023 - 2024, the year - on - year growth in 2025 supply was expected and already reflected in the futures market. Comparing 2025 data with 2023 shows that although the number of live - hogs in the first quarter of 2025 was higher than in 2024 but lower than in 2023, the increase in pork output was due to higher slaughter weights [7][8]. - Comparing the first half of 2025 with the same period in 2024 and 2023, the decline in the number of live - hog inventories in the second quarter of 2025 narrowed compared to 2023, and the year - on - year growth rate of live - hog slaughter in the first half of the year increased compared to the first quarter, indicating a continuous recovery in inventory. However, the contribution of weight to pork output in the second quarter weakened compared to the first quarter, and overall supply pressure still exists [8][9]. 3.2 Pig Capacity Cycle Issues and Thoughts 3.2.1 Current Stage of the Pig Capacity Cycle - As of the end of the second quarter, the number of breeding sows increased quarter - on - quarter. The current pig price is in the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases, and active/passive capacity reduction has not yet started [10]. 3.2.2 How to Achieve Capacity Reduction - There are three ways to reduce capacity: active capacity reduction driven by low prices (currently ineffective as pigs and piglets are profitable); passive capacity reduction caused by diseases (need to pay attention to winter disease prevention at the end of the year); and forced capacity reduction driven by environmental protection policies (the most likely way currently, which will promote large - scale development) [11]. 3.2.3 Main Trading Logic of Live - Hog Futures - The main trading logic this year is the bearish logic of continuous supply recovery. After the bearish expectations are fulfilled, it trades the basis repair logic. In the long - term, maintain a short - selling strategy unless the number of newborn piglets decreases; in the medium - term, it may operate in a wide range around the expected support and pressure of spot pig prices; in the short - term, it is trading the repair of the futures discount driven by the weight - reduction expectation [13].
宠物和生猪板块推荐观点更新
2025-07-16 06:13
Summary of Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the **agriculture industry**, focusing on the **pet sector** and **livestock farming**, particularly **swine farming** and **pet medical care**. Key Points and Arguments Pet Sector 1. The company has been continuously recommending the **pet sector**, with a recent emphasis on the **breeding sector** as well. The focus includes **pet food** and **pet medical care** [1][8] 2. Recent offline surveys indicate a shift in the pet market towards **fresh food** and **differentiated products**, highlighting the competitive landscape driven by product innovation [9][10] 3. The pet market is currently characterized by high marketing costs and increased competition, necessitating a focus on product quality and consumer education [13][14] 4. Domestic leading brands are gaining traction, particularly in the mid to high-end market segments, despite facing competition from foreign brands [15][16] Livestock Farming 5. The company has started to recommend the **swine farming sector** due to favorable market conditions and stable pig prices, which have remained between **14 to 15 yuan** per kilogram since the Chinese New Year [3][4] 6. There has been a significant increase in the average weight of pigs post-Chinese New Year, with an increase of nearly **8 kilograms**, indicating a positive trend in livestock growth [4] 7. Despite the current stability, there is a bearish outlook on pig prices due to high supply pressures, presenting a potential buying opportunity in the livestock sector [6] Pet Medical Care 8. The pet medical care sector is viewed as having substantial growth potential, with expectations for the market to develop into a **billion-dollar industry** [18][19] 9. The domestic pet medical market is still in its early stages compared to mature markets like the U.S., indicating significant room for growth in pet health management and spending [19] 10. Companies with strong R&D capabilities and a focus on pet vaccines and pharmaceuticals are expected to thrive in the evolving market landscape [20][22] Financial Performance and Projections 11. The company anticipates a **20%** growth rate over the next two to three years, supported by the launch of new products in the pet medical sector [24] 12. Current valuations suggest that the company is trading at less than **18 times** earnings, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [24] Additional Insights 13. Recent policy changes are expected to accelerate trends in the livestock sector, with ongoing adjustments in regulations impacting market dynamics [6][7] 14. The competitive landscape in the pet food market is shifting towards product-driven strategies, with an emphasis on health and premium offerings [11][12] Conclusion The conference call highlights a positive outlook for both the pet and livestock sectors, driven by product innovation, market stability, and favorable growth projections. The emphasis on R&D and adapting to consumer trends is crucial for companies operating in these industries.
建信期货生猪日报-20250716
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 01:50
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On July 15, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 14,360 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,230 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,250 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 230 lots to 162,061 lots [7]. - Spot: On July 15, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.54 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. Market Analysis - Demand: The price difference between fat and standard pigs widened slightly, and the utilization rate of pigsties increased, indicating higher enthusiasm for secondary fattening. Due to hot weather, terminal demand was weak, slaughterhouse orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On July 15, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 133,600 heads, an increase of 11,000 heads from the previous day and 29,000 heads from a week ago [8]. - Supply: According to Yongyi data, the planned pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July was 23.88 million heads, a month-on-month decrease of 1.19% from June. There was phased pressure on栏 and reduced slaughter in the first ten days, and the slaughter weight increased slightly. Currently, the slaughter progress has recovered, and there are still secondary-fattened pigs to be slaughtered in the future [8]. Market Outlook - Short - term: The short - term reduction in slaughter boosted the rebound of futures and spot prices. Currently, the group's slaughter volume has recovered, and prices have slightly corrected [8]. - Medium - to - long - term: Pig supply will continue to increase. From mid - to - late July, group - owned farms may increase supply to meet monthly targets, and demand is in the off - season, so pig prices may face pressure. Futures contracts are slightly at a discount to the spot. The spot market's supply reduction to maintain prices has driven the rebound of futures and spot prices. In addition, the domestic anti - involution initiative is beneficial to the medium - to - long - term performance of pig prices, and the increasing environmental protection efforts in some areas support market sentiment [8]. Group 3: Data Overview - Profit: As of the week of July 11, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 165 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 44 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 58 yuan/head [17]. - Piglet Price: In the week of July 10, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 539 yuan/head, an increase of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - Utilization Rate: In late June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 53.9%, a ten - day increase of 9 percentage points [17]. - Price Difference: In the week of July 10, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.10 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [17]. - Slaughter Weight: As of the week of July 11, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 129.03 kg, an increase of 0.39 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [17].