2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业研究 5 月国内氧化铝产能利用率降至 2023 年以来新低 ——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.6.16-6.22） 要点 流动性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点。（1）BCI 中小 企业融资环境指数 2025 年 5 月值为 49.09，环比上月+2.20%；（2）M1 和 M2 增速差与上证指数存在较强的正向相关性：M1 和 M2 增速差在 2025 年 5 月为-5.6 个百分点，环比+0.9 个百分点；（3）本周伦敦金现价格环比上 周-1.91%。 基建和地产链条：6 月上旬重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量环比+3.25%。（1） 本周价格变动：螺纹+0.00%、水泥价格指数-1.21%、橡胶+0.72%、焦炭 +0.00%、焦煤-3.11%、铁矿-2.07%；（2）本周全国高炉产能利用率、水 泥、沥青、全钢胎开工率环比分别+0.21pct、-5.90pct、-1.8pct、 +4.24pct；（3）2025 年 6 月上旬，重点企业粗钢旬度日均产量为 215.90 万吨。 地产竣工链条：钛白粉、平板玻璃毛利润处于低位水平。本周钛白粉、 ...

Market Overview - The stock indices showed narrow fluctuations in the morning and surged in the afternoon, with the North Securities 50 Index rising over 1% and more than 4,400 stocks gaining [1] - By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.65% to 3,381.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.43% to 10,048.39 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 0.39% to 2,017.63 points [1] - The North Securities 50 Index saw a gain of 1.54%, with a total trading volume of 1,147.1 billion yuan across the three markets [1] Sector Performance - The oil sector showed strong performance, while logistics, chemicals, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, coal, pharmaceuticals, and brokerage sectors also experienced gains [1] - Emerging themes such as digital currency, cross-border payments, shipping concepts, and solid-state battery concepts were active [1] Economic Outlook - External uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand remain challenges for the second half of the year, but sustained policy efforts are expected to showcase strong resilience in the domestic economy [1] - With the expansion of equity public funds, the influx of medium to long-term capital, and supportive policy tools, the A-share market is likely to maintain a stable and improving trend [1] - Current A-share valuations are at a historical medium level and are relatively low compared to mature overseas markets, indicating a higher investment cost-performance ratio [1] - Overall, the A-share market is anticipated to exhibit a trend of oscillating upward by the second half of 2025 [1] Structural Investment Opportunities - Safe assets with low valuations and high dividend characteristics align with the medium to long-term capital allocation needs, providing both safety margins and yield certainty in an uncertain external environment and low-interest rate context [2] - The theme of technological innovation is crucial for accelerating the cultivation of endogenous growth momentum and should be monitored for breakthroughs in industrial trends [2] - The large consumption sector is showing bright domestic consumption data under policy support, with new consumption trends emerging, particularly in pet economy, IP economy, and domestic beauty and personal care [2] - Mergers and acquisitions in sci-tech enterprises, central state-owned enterprises, and traditional industries are also a focus area [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report. It mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on various futures products, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis Charts**: There are basis charts for crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt. The basis of crude oil is related to the spot price of China Shengli and the futures closing price of INE crude oil; the basis of fuel oil is related to the FOB Singapore spot price and the futures closing price of fuel oil [6][7][9] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of natural rubber was 50 yuan/ton, and that of methanol was 256 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 30 yuan/ton [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2536 yuan/ton [10] 3. Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of rebar was 78.0 yuan/ton [15] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month), iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are given [15] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 4.26 [15] 4. Non - ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of copper was 500 yuan/ton [23] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: On June 20, 2025, the LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was 274.99 [30] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of soybean No.1 was - 179 yuan/ton [40] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products such as soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, etc. are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybean No.1 was 13 yuan/ton [38] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are presented. For example, on June 20, the soybean No.1/corn ratio was 1.77 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 16 to June 20, 2025, the basis data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, on June 20, the basis of CSI 300 was 73.04 [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for different periods (such as next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) are given [48]

Macro Insights - Stablecoins are not absolutely stable in value; they are subject to technical de-pegging risks and fluctuations in the underlying assets [1] - Not all fiat currencies can support the issuance of stablecoins; the development of stablecoins depends on the acceptance and trust in the underlying fiat currency [1] - The rapid development of USD stablecoins does not weaken the credibility of the USD; instead, it enhances the USD's role and functionality [1] - USD stablecoins provide limited relief to the US short-term debt market, with the Federal Reserve remaining the primary influencer of the overall debt market [2] - The emergence of USD stablecoins does not significantly increase the supply of USD; the Federal Reserve retains control over total USD liquidity [2] - Stablecoins support the RWA market primarily at the transaction level, with the development of RWA ultimately dependent on the quality of underlying assets [2] Market Strategy - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trend despite recent adjustments, driven by emerging opportunities in new technologies and consumption [4] - The potential for a trend of USD depreciation is increasing, which may benefit Chinese assets, particularly in the context of capital flow and asset pricing [5] - The focus on AI trends in the technology sector is emphasized, alongside recommendations for cyclical industries and high-dividend financial stocks [6] AH Premium Analysis - The historical AH premium has been trending downward, influenced by differences in market structure, liquidity, and industry concentration between A-shares and H-shares [8] - Recent changes indicate a narrowing of the AH premium, with some H-shares trading at a premium compared to their A-share counterparts [9] Commodity Insights - The lithium and cobalt sectors are under scrutiny, with current market conditions showing weak demand and price pressures [11][12] - The cobalt market is experiencing a downturn, with reduced purchasing activity and potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could impact prices [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The market may fluctuate, but the broader market is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment trend. With the realization of positive factors and the reality of weak fundamentals, and facing pressure above 3400 points, there is insufficient momentum for further upward movement. It is recommended for short - term trading. Hold short positions in IM2507 and long positions in MO2509 - P - 5600 [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental View - **Market Performance**: Last week, the broader market first rose and then fell, with a slight adjustment. The four major indices fluctuated and adjusted, and small and medium - cap stock indices declined more. All style indices fell, with the growth - style index having the largest decline. Most Shenwan industries fell, with textile and apparel, medicine, non - ferrous metals, and tourism sectors leading the decline. Only the banking, communication, and electronics industries rose [6][8][14]. - **Economic Data**: In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. After Sino - US negotiations, tariffs will be reduced within 90 days, and the PMI rebounded. In terms of sub - items, production and demand recovered in May, with production up 0.9%, new orders up 0.6%, and new export orders up 2.8%. Most other indices also increased, while the inventory of finished products decreased continuously by 0.8%. In terms of prices, the ex - factory price and the purchase price of major raw materials continued to decline [8]. - **Policy**: The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, boosting the capital market. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, and lowered interest rates to reduce the stock mortgage rate. The CSRC proposed mergers, acquisitions, and market value management to enhance market activity. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [8]. - **Earnings**: In terms of revenue, the revenue growth rates of the ChiNext, ChiNext, and CSI 500 indices increased, while those of the CSI 1000, SSE Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent, except for the SSE Composite Index, the net profit growth rates of the ChiNext, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 1000, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 300 indices all increased significantly. Although the performance of the entire A - share market shows signs of stabilization, the 30% increase in tariffs imposed by the US since the second quarter may affect the fundamentals of the A - share market, and the A - share performance may bottom out again [8]. - **Valuation**: The valuation of the SSE Composite Index is 14.6431, at the 68.72 percentile since 2010. The valuation of the ChiNext is relatively low [9][65]. - **Funding**: From April 7 to June 20, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 138.3 billion yuan, with an increase of 12.9 billion yuan last week, which was the first increase after continuous reductions since May. In terms of margin trading, there was a net inflow of 274.8 billion yuan in 2024; as of June 12, 2025, there was a net outflow of 44.9 billion yuan in 2025, and a net inflow of 2 billion yuan in the first five trading days. At the end of 2024, the assets of the national team and insurance funds showed a net increase, while the assets of the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect showed a net decrease. Specifically, the assets of Central Huijin and insurance funds increased [9]. 2. Strategy View and Outlook - **Market Outlook**: The broader market showed a weak and volatile trend last Friday, with a brief rebound in the morning. The performance of the four major indices was divergent, with large - cap stock indices rising and small and medium - cap stock indices falling. The ratio of rising to falling stocks in individual sectors rebounded from a low level by 0.43. After two consecutive days of adjustment, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and market sentiment may have improved. Sino - US negotiations achieved important progress, and the positive factors in mid - May were realized. With the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, subsequent policies may enter a wait - and - see period, and the focus of the market may shift to the domestic fundamentals. From the recent CPI and PPI data, CPI and PPI continued to decline more than expected, and the problem of domestic over - capacity is still significant. In addition, the negative impact of the additional tariffs imposed this year on the fundamentals may gradually emerge. Technically, after continuous volatile climbs, the short - term technical indicators are under pressure. The broader market, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices showed divergence structures in the minute - level sequences, and the broader market faced pressure when continuously attacking 3400 points. Technically, it may face adjustment. In summary, with the realization of positive factors and the weak reality, and facing pressure above 3400 points, there is insufficient momentum for further upward movement. It is expected that the broader market will continue to maintain a volatile adjustment, and the market may fluctuate. It is recommended for short - term trading [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions in IM2507 and long positions in MO2509 - P - 5600 [11]. 3. Index and Industry Trend Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the broader market first rose and then fell, with a slight adjustment. The four major indices fluctuated and adjusted, and small and medium - cap stock indices declined more [6][14]. - **Style and Industry Index**: All style indices fell last week, with the growth - style index having the largest decline. Most Shenwan industries fell, with textile and apparel, medicine, non - ferrous metals, and tourism sectors leading the decline. Only the banking, communication, and electronics industries rose [8][16]. 4. Main Contract and Basis Trend - **Index Adjustment**: The four major indices fluctuated and adjusted, with small and medium - cap stock indices having more adjustments. On Friday, due to delivery, the basis narrowed and there was a premium [19]. - **Arbitrage Relationship**: In terms of arbitrage among main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH may decline again after a downward rebound, IH/IF stabilizes after a volatile adjustment, and IM/IF and IM/IH continue to decline after a downward rebound [24]. 5. Policy and Economy - **PMI Data**: In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. After Sino - US negotiations, tariffs will be reduced within 90 days, and the PMI rebounded. In terms of sub - items, production and demand recovered in May, with production up 0.9%, new orders up 0.6%, and new export orders up 2.8%. Most other indices also increased, while the inventory of finished products decreased continuously by 0.8%. In terms of prices, the ex - factory price and the purchase price of major raw materials continued to decline [8][28]. - **PPI and Inventory Cycle**: Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle (ranging from 1 month to 1 year, with an average of about half a year). PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and has seen a continuous narrowing of the decline since March 2024, with the decline widening again since July and narrowing again until March 2025, and then widening for three consecutive months. In April, the revenue of industrial enterprises fell back to 3.2%, and the inventory fell by 3.9% in March. In the past two years, inventory and revenue have shown a steady recovery, in the stage of active inventory replenishment. With the decline of PPI again, it is expected to enter the stage of passive inventory replenishment [30]. - **Social Financing and Credit**: In May 2025, the year - on - year increase in social financing continued to be 224.6 billion yuan, with government bonds increasing by 236.7 billion yuan, and the increase significantly narrowed. The year - on - year increase in credit was 330 billion yuan less, mainly due to a 210 - billion - yuan decrease in corporate loans, including a 23 - billion - yuan increase in short - term loans and a 17 - billion - yuan decrease in medium - and long - term loans [32]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Credit Growth**: The medium - and long - term credit growth rate has been falling for 24 consecutive months to 6.78% as of May 2025, hitting a new low since 2011 [7][35]. - **Policy on Long - Term Funds**: The implementation plan for promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market aims to increase the investment scale and proportion of long - term funds in A - shares. For public funds, it is clear that the market value of A - shares held by public funds should increase by at least 10% annually in the next three years. For commercial insurance funds, large - scale state - owned insurance companies are expected to invest 30% of their newly added premiums in A - shares annually starting from 2025, which means adding at least several hundred billion yuan of long - term funds to A - shares annually. The second - batch pilot program for long - term stock investment of insurance funds will be implemented in the first half of 2025, with a scale of no less than 100 billion yuan, and will be gradually expanded later. The implementation plan also extends the assessment cycle, aiming to improve the stability of long - term fund investment behavior [37]. - **Other Policies**: The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, boost the capital market, and promote the entry of long - term funds. The central bank created new monetary policy tools, including a securities, funds, and insurance companies swap facility with an initial scale of 500 billion yuan, and a stock repurchase and increase loan with an initial scale of 300 billion yuan. There were also reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and measures to support the real estate market and the real economy, such as increasing the quota of re - loans for scientific and technological innovation and technical transformation, setting up a "service consumption and elderly care re - loan", and creating a risk - sharing tool for scientific and technological innovation bonds [38][39][41]. 6. Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - **Annual Report**: Except for the CSI 500, the year - on - year growth rates of the operating revenues of each index in the 2024 annual report declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent, the year - on - year growth of the SSE 50 index continued, the CSI 300 index had a slight increase, and the CSI 500, ChiNext, and Shenzhen Component Indexes declined to varying degrees [50]. - **First - Quarter Report**: In terms of revenue, the revenue growth rates of the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, and CSI 500 indices increased, while those of the CSI 1000, SSE Composite Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices declined. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent, the net profit growth rates of the ChiNext, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 1000, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE Composite Indexes all increased significantly [56]. - **Performance Outlook**: Although the performance of the entire A - share market shows signs of stabilization, the 30% increase in tariffs imposed by the US since the second quarter may affect the fundamentals of the A - share market, and the A - share performance may bottom out again [60]. 7. Valuation - **SSE Composite Index Valuation**: The valuation of the SSE Composite Index is 14.6431, at the 68.72 percentile since 2010 [9][65]. - **Valuation of Each Index**: The report provides the PE percentiles of each index from 2010 to June 2025, showing that the ChiNext has a relatively low valuation [66]. 8. Funding - **ETF Scale**: From April 7 to June 20, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 138.3 billion yuan, with an increase of 12.9 billion yuan last week, which was the first increase after continuous reductions since May [69]. - **Margin Trading**: There was a net inflow of 274.8 billion yuan in margin trading in 2024; as of June 12, 2025, there was a net outflow of 44.9 billion yuan in 2025, and a net inflow of 2 billion yuan in the first five trading days [76]. - **Primary Market Financing**: As of last weekend, the IPO financing in 2023 was 356.5 billion yuan, 67.3 billion yuan in 2024, and 37.1 billion yuan in 2025 [79]. - **ETF Share and Scale**: In the week from June 13 to June 20, 2025, the ETF share increased by 29.252 billion shares (+0.83%), reaching 3556.49 billion shares; the total scale decreased by 37.137 billion yuan (-0.77%), to 4812.054 billion yuan [82]. - **Secondary Market Shareholder Transactions**: Last week, major shareholders in the secondary market continued to have a net reduction of 3.58 billion yuan [85]. - **Restricted - Share Unlocking**: The unlocking volume from March to June is not large [88].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight decline this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% closing at 3360 points, and the Wind All A Index down 1.07% [1] - Hong Kong stocks mirrored A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.52% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.03% [2] - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq rising while the S&P 500 fell [3] Positive Developments - Novo Nordisk announced significant weight loss results from its STEP UP 3b clinical trial, showing a 21% average weight reduction for participants on a higher dose of Wegovy, with one-third achieving over 25% weight loss [3] - Lao Pu Gold opened its first overseas store in Singapore, marking a key step in its global expansion strategy [3] - Zhifei Biological received clinical trial approval for its adsorbed tetanus vaccine, allowing it to proceed with trials [4] - Tencent Cloud launched "AI Builder," enabling users to generate complete applications from simple descriptions, enhancing the app development experience [5] - Xin Xuan Group reported significant sales during the 618 shopping festival, with 12 brands exceeding 100 million in sales and total viewership reaching 550 million [6][7] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical received approval for six drug clinical trials, including new oral and injectable therapies [8] - Li Auto's first pure electric SUV, the Li i8, is set to launch in late July [9] - Yingmu Technology plans to release a new strategic product in Q3 [10] - Desay SV announced a partnership with Chery Automobile to develop an integrated central computing platform for smart driving [11] Negative Developments - Anker Innovations announced a recall of certain batches of power banks due to quality issues with battery cells [12] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is monitoring stocks with abnormal trading behaviors, including *ST Yanzhen [13] - Ningbo Huaxiang expects a loss of 273 million to 369 million yuan in the first half of 2025 due to the impact of its European business divestiture [14][15] - *ST Jinguang received a decision to terminate its stock listing, entering a delisting period starting June 30, 2025 [16] - SpaceX's Starship S36 experienced an explosion during a static fire test [17] - Microsoft plans to lay off thousands of employees, primarily in sales [17] - *ST Xinyuan's controlling shareholder is restricted from high consumption due to a contract dispute [17] - *ST Hengli received a decision to terminate its stock listing, with trading resuming on June 25, 2025 [18] - Honda is recalling nearly 259,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to brake pedal issues [19] - Ford is recalling 27,768 vehicles in the U.S. due to a child lock malfunction [19] - Wanda Group's 40 million shares have been frozen [19] - Black Sesame received a warning letter from the Guangxi Securities Regulatory Bureau for governance issues [20][21] - *ST Jiu You announced its stock will be delisted, entering a 15-day trading period before delisting [22] - San Yao Biotech terminated its exclusive agreement with Guoguang Biotech, affecting its flu vaccine distribution in mainland China [23] IPO and Market Activity - Haitian Flavoring's H-shares were priced at HKD 36.3, with additional shares issued [35] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved Guangdong Jian Ke's IPO registration for the Growth Enterprise Market [28] - Several companies, including PPIO and PPLabs Technology, submitted IPO applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [26][29] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported that approximately 190 companies are in line to go public [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 20, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][5][14][22][38][47] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - Basis data from June 13 - 19, 2025 shows a constant basis of - 192.4 yuan/ton, and 0.0 for 5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5 spreads [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - Crude oil, fuel oil basis data and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented, with specific values varying from June 13 - 19, 2025. For example, the ratio of crude oil to asphalt on June 19, 2025 was 0.1484 [9] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - Basis data for multiple chemicals (e.g., natural rubber, methanol, PTA) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are provided. For instance, the basis of natural rubber on June 19 was - 80 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5) for various chemicals are given, such as the 5 - 1 spread of natural rubber being 35 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - variety spreads (e.g., LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on June 19 was 2554 yuan/ton [10] 3.3 Black Metals - Basis data for black metals (e.g., rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on June 19 was 84.0 yuan/ton [15] - Inter - period spreads for rebar (5 - 1/10 - 1/10 - 5) and other black metals (e.g., 5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5 for iron ore) are provided [15] - Inter - variety spreads (e.g., rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on June 19 was 4.28 [15] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - Domestic basis data for non - ferrous metals (e.g., copper, aluminum, zinc) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of copper on June 19 was 460 yuan/ton [23] - LME related data (LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot, import profit and loss) for non - ferrous metals on June 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the LME premium of copper was 133.36 [30] 3.4.2 London Market - LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data are presented, but specific numerical details are not fully elaborated in the summary [30][32][33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for agricultural products (e.g., soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of soybean No.1 on June 19 was - 153 yuan/ton [40] - Inter - period spreads (5 - 1/9 - 1/9 - 5) for various agricultural products are given, such as the 5 - 1 spread of soybean No.1 being 15 yuan/ton [38] - Inter - variety spreads (e.g., soybean No.1/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the soybean No.1/corn ratio on June 19 was 1.76 [38] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for stock index futures (e.g., CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from June 13 - 19, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on June 19 was 2.69 [48] - Inter - period spreads (e.g., next month - current month, current quarter - current month) for various stock index futures are provided [48]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on June 19, 2025, including power coal, energy - chemical products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads [1][4][13][21][39][46] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis of power coal remained at - 192.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy - Chemical 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - **Basis Charts**: There are basis charts for crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio chart of crude oil to asphalt, showing the relationship between spot prices and futures prices [5][6][8] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [9] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for multiple chemical products are provided, including natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. [9] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented, with different values and trends [14] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of rebar (5 - 1 month, 10 - 1 month, 10 - 5 month) and those of iron ore, coke, and coking coal (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) are provided [14] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [14] 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [22] - **LME - related Data**: On June 18, 2025, data such as LME forward premiums/discounts, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit/loss for non - ferrous metals are provided [29] 3.4.2 London Market - **Relevant Charts**: There are LME basis charts, Shanghai - London ratio charts, and import profit/loss charts for non - ferrous metals [31][32][33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are presented, with different values and trends [39] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month for multiple agricultural products are provided, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. [37][39] - **Inter - variety Spread Data**: The inter - variety spreads such as soybean 1/corn, soybean 2/corn, etc. are given from June 12 to June 18, 2025 [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: From June 12 to June 18, 2025, the basis data of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented, with different values and trends [47] - **Inter - period Spread Data**: The inter - period spreads of multiple contracts (next month - current month, current quarter - current month, etc.) for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [47]

Group 1: Overall Economic Trends - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, indicating the continued effect of consumption expansion policies [1][13][20] - The cumulative retail sales from January to May reached 20.3171 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%, up from 4.7% in the previous period [1][13] - The growth in essential consumption categories improved, driven by holiday demand and promotional activities, with food and beverage retail sales showing significant increases [1][17][20] Group 2: Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index both declined, while the DXI Index increased by 7.77% [1][23] - The price of DDR4 DRAM memory rose by 25.11% week-on-week, with the 8GB DDR4 DRAM priced at $4.28 [1][26] - The production of integrated circuits showed a rolling year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor sector [1][23][26] Group 3: Manufacturing Sector - The production of industrial robots saw a rolling year-on-year increase, while sales of major engineering machinery companies mostly slowed down [1][3] - The price index for photovoltaic products decreased week-on-week, but the production of solar cells showed a rolling year-on-year increase [1][3][22] - The automotive production and sales growth rates have narrowed, indicating a potential slowdown in the automotive sector [1][3][22] Group 4: Consumer Demand - Retail sales in the home appliance sector continued to recover, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with significant increases in sales of communication equipment [1][20] - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry maintained a high growth rate, benefiting from demand for value preservation amid rising gold prices [1][21] - The average price of fresh milk and sugar has decreased, while the average price of live pigs has increased, reflecting mixed trends in agricultural products [1][3][21] Group 5: Resource Sector - The price of Brent crude oil increased, while the prices of various chemical products mostly rose, indicating a positive trend in the resource sector [1][22] - The inventory levels of industrial metals showed mixed trends, with most inventories declining, suggesting a tightening supply [1][22] - The national cement price index increased, reflecting a recovery in construction-related materials [1][22]