Group 1: Market Overview - The global commodity market in 2025 exhibited a stark divergence, with precious metals experiencing a significant bull market while oil and black commodities faced oversupply issues [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, saw remarkable price increases, with gold rising over 60% and silver soaring 102% [2] - The agricultural market showed mixed results, with oilseeds benefiting from biofuel policies while grains remained subdued due to ample supply [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver emerged as the strongest sectors, driven by "de-dollarization" and interest rate cuts, leading to a substantial increase in gold purchases by central banks [2] - Central banks net purchased 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly above pre-2022 averages [2] - The global gold ETF holdings increased by over 700 tons, reaching a total of 3932 tons, marking a record annual growth [2] Group 3: Base Metals - Copper and aluminum prices strengthened due to a balanced supply-demand dynamic, with copper prices reaching a historical high of 13,387.5 USD/ton [3] - A projected cumulative copper mine deficit of 3.13 million tons from 2026 to 2029 is anticipated due to supply instability [3] - Demand for copper related to green transition initiatives is significant, with investments in electric grids and data centers driving consumption [3] Group 4: Oil and Black Commodities - The oil market is characterized by a significant oversupply, with a daily surplus of 1.795 million barrels expected in 2025 [4] - The black commodities sector, particularly steel, is struggling, with steel mill profitability dropping from 68.4% to 36.4% [4] - Diesel markets are experiencing strength due to reduced Russian exports, despite overall oil market challenges [4] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Oilseeds are performing well, driven by increased biofuel blending ratios in Indonesia and Brazil, leading to an 8% growth in industrial consumption [4] - Other agricultural products, such as corn and soybeans, are expected to see price declines due to favorable supply conditions [4] Group 6: Future Outlook - The commodity market is expected to continue its divergent trends into 2026, influenced by a "weak recovery and loose monetary policy" macroeconomic backdrop [6] - Strategic security, green transition, and emerging demand are identified as key structural opportunities for investment in 2026 [6] - Precious metals and core base metals are projected to maintain strong support, while the oil market is expected to remain under pressure [6][7]

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices surged to $13,387.5 per ton in early 2024, marking a 65% increase from last year's low, fundamentally altering perceptions of the commodity market [1] - The global demand for copper is projected to increase by 40% by 2040, driven by the growth of new industries such as electric vehicles and data centers, while supply chain disruptions have heightened concerns about availability [3] - The dual drivers of rising copper prices are a weak dollar environment and significant copper stockpiling by the U.S., exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [3] Group 2: Company Performance and Valuation - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. has seen its market capitalization reach a historical high of 378.6 billion yuan, with its stock price increasing by 243%, reflecting a market reassessment of its value [1] - The company’s copper production is expected to grow by 55% year-on-year in 2024, positioning it among the top ten copper producers globally, with further capacity expansion anticipated [5] - Despite a market cap exceeding 370 billion yuan and a profit surge of 72% in the first three quarters of 2025, the company's valuation remains below half of its historical average, indicating potential for continued growth [5] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - Geopolitical instability, particularly in Venezuela, poses risks to copper prices and could lead to volatility in the market, impacting both suppliers and buyers [7] - The evolving U.S. tax policies on copper imports introduce uncertainty that may pressure Chinese companies' exports, complicating the market landscape [7] - The strategic importance of copper is increasingly recognized, with the industry experiencing a significant transformation, suggesting that only companies with robust resources and capabilities will thrive [9]

Core Insights - The A-share market has seen a vibrant performance with multiple sectors experiencing significant rallies, particularly in the ETF market where several products have surpassed the 10 billion yuan threshold [1][2] ETF Market Performance - The Industrial Metals ETF (560860) managed by Wanji Fund reached a record scale of 100.07 billion yuan on January 6, 2026, marking its entry into the "100 billion ETF club" after a 100.38% increase in 2025, ranking it among the top ten ETFs in the market [1] - The Color Metals ETF (516650) under Huaxia Fund also crossed the 100 billion yuan mark, achieving a scale of 100.27 billion yuan by January 9, 2026, with continuous inflows during the first five trading days of the year [2] Market Trends and Influences - The current market behavior is characterized as typical for the end of the year and beginning of the new year, aligning with historical trends of spring or year-end rallies in the A-share market, driven by increased institutional trading [1] - The manager of the Industrial Metals ETF highlighted that the industrial metals sector is significantly influenced by the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with pricing heavily reliant on microeconomic data [2] Satellite ETF Growth - The Satellite ETF (159206) managed by Yongying Fund saw rapid growth, reaching 117.69 billion yuan by January 9, 2026, becoming the first satellite-themed ETF to exceed 100 billion yuan in scale [3] - The manager of the Satellite ETF anticipates 2026 to be a pivotal year for China's commercial space industry, with numerous policy initiatives and plans set to catalyze growth in satellite communication and related sectors [4] Future Outlook for Satellite Applications - The Satellite ETF manager noted that satellite communication will serve as a foundational technology for 6G communication and will support various emerging sectors such as autonomous driving and IoT [5] - Major domestic smartphone manufacturers are launching new models with satellite connectivity features, and telecom operators have received licenses for satellite internet services, indicating significant future capital expenditures in this area [5]

Core Insights - The current A-share market rally is driven by a combination of policy expectations, industry trends, capital flow, and market sentiment, indicating a complex and critical new phase in the market [1][2] - The influx of incremental capital is a key factor in the ongoing market strength, with significant net inflows from northbound capital and increased trading volumes [2][3] Market Dynamics - The strong market performance is attributed to a multi-dimensional resonance of policies, industry developments, and capital dynamics, with a notable shift from a focus on existing capital to new incremental capital [2][3] - Northbound capital has seen multiple days of net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan since January, with daily trading volumes rising from 1.7 trillion yuan to over 2.8 trillion yuan [2] Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are actively adjusting their portfolios, focusing on both offensive and defensive strategies, with a clear emphasis on sectors like AI and cyclical industries [4][5] - Investment in technology sectors is expanding from hardware to applications, with a focus on areas such as innovative pharmaceuticals, brain-computer interfaces, and commercial aerospace [4][5] Sector Focus - High-growth sectors such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals are repeatedly highlighted as key investment areas [6][7] - There is a growing interest in cyclical assets due to expectations of economic recovery, with private equity firms increasing their holdings in sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals [5][6] Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors maintain a strategic optimism, while individual investors exhibit anxiety and indecision, reflecting a dichotomy in market sentiment [4][8] - Recommendations for individual investors emphasize the importance of professional management, focusing on long-term trends, and utilizing standardized investment tools to mitigate selection difficulties [8][9] Conclusion - The current market environment presents a comprehensive test of cognitive depth, strategic flexibility, and investment discipline, with private equity firms adapting their strategies to navigate the complexities of the evolving market landscape [9]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding industry trends and the potential investment opportunities arising from them, particularly in sectors benefiting from AI and improved supply-demand dynamics in lithium battery materials [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Environment - The A-share market is currently experiencing a positive upward trend, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks seen as attractive investment options due to their high yield potential compared to low-risk assets [1][2]. - The economic adjustment in sectors like real estate is nearing completion, reducing its impact on the economy, while China's trade dependency on the U.S. has significantly decreased, with successful expansion into emerging markets [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The policy environment has been exceptionally supportive of the capital market, with strict limits on financing and an increased focus on dividends and share buybacks by listed companies, enhancing investor returns [2]. - Despite a general market recovery, valuations in key sectors such as Hong Kong internet, consumer electronics, and lithium remain reasonable, with companies increasingly prioritizing shareholder returns [2]. Group 3: Investment Focus - The investment strategy focuses on three main lines: technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors. Technology is seen as early-stage development benefiting from AI, while new energy, particularly lithium materials, is expected to enter a new growth cycle due to rising demand [3]. - The cyclical sector is in a stable phase, with strong performance in non-ferrous metals driven by improved supply-demand fundamentals, particularly in copper and aluminum [3]. Group 4: Research and Team Dynamics - The company has reduced the weight of left-side positioning in its investment portfolio to better manage liquidity and enhance investment experience, while maintaining long-term holdings in high-quality companies with strong competitive positions [4]. - The research team has been structured to enhance collaboration across sectors like AI, energy, and consumer goods, improving research depth and efficiency [4][5]. - The dual role of the research head as a fund manager facilitates direct communication of investment ideas to researchers, promoting effective research transformation and timely opportunity identification [5].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding industry trends and the competitive advantages of companies, particularly in the context of the ongoing AI wave and improvements in supply-demand dynamics in sectors like lithium battery materials [1]. Group 1: Investment Environment - The A-share market is currently experiencing a favorable investment period, with equity assets gaining more attention compared to low-risk assets [2]. - Economic adjustments in sectors like real estate and reduced trade dependency on the U.S. are contributing to a more stable economic environment [2]. - The focus on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks is increasing among listed companies, enhancing the attractiveness of equity investments [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy focuses on three main lines: technology, new energy, and cyclical sectors, with an emphasis on companies benefiting from AI and those in the lithium battery sector [5]. - The technology sector is seen as being in its early development stage, while the new energy sector is in mid-development, poised for a new growth cycle due to rising demand [5]. - The cyclical sector is stabilizing, with improvements in supply-demand fundamentals for industrial metals like copper and aluminum, indicating potential price increases [5]. Group 3: Research and Team Dynamics - The research team has undergone iterative upgrades to enhance research depth, coverage, and efficiency, focusing on industry changes over the next three months to a year [4][7]. - The team structure includes experienced leaders and younger researchers, fostering a collaborative environment that enhances decision-making and emotional resilience [7][8]. - Continuous training and interaction between researchers and fund managers are emphasized to ensure timely responses to industry changes and investment opportunities [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry as a whole, but it highlights various sectors with their respective valuation metrics, indicating potential investment opportunities based on historical percentiles [1][2]. Core Insights - The report tracks the valuation of A-shares as of January 9, 2026, with the overall market PE at 22.4 times and PB at 1.9 times, indicating a historical percentile of 83% and 49% respectively [1][2]. - Key sectors with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Automation Equipment, Retail, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, and IT Services [1][2]. - The semiconductor market is projected to reach nearly $1 trillion in sales by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [3]. Valuation Summary A-Share Valuation - The overall market PE is 22.4x, with a historical percentile of 83% [1][2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index PE is 12x, with a historical percentile of 65% [1][2]. - The ChiNext Index PE is 42.6x, with a historical percentile of 41% [1][2]. Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include: - Real Estate - Automation Equipment - Retail - Chemical Pharmaceuticals - Electronics - IT Services [1][2]. - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include: - Defense and Military - Electronics (Semiconductors) - Telecommunications [1][2]. Sector-Specific Insights New Energy - The photovoltaic industry sees a mixed trend with upstream silicon prices down by 9.4% while downstream battery prices increased by 1.3% [1][2]. - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 17.9% due to supply disruptions [1][2]. Technology (TMT) - The semiconductor index rose by 3.7%, with global sales increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [3]. - DRAM prices increased by 10.9%, indicating strong demand in the cloud services sector [3]. Real Estate Chain - Steel prices increased slightly, while cement prices remained stable [3]. - The glass market is expected to reach a weak balance due to production adjustments [3]. Consumer Goods - Pork prices decreased by 1.0%, while wholesale prices for liquor increased by 2.2% [3]. - Agricultural products showed mixed price movements, with corn prices stable and soybean prices up by 0.8% [3]. Midstream Manufacturing - Excavator sales increased by 19.2% year-on-year, driven by equipment upgrades and demand from mining sectors [3]. Cyclical Industries - Industrial metals saw price increases, with copper up by 4.1% [3]. - Brent crude oil prices rose by 3.7% due to geopolitical tensions [3].

期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货铜周报 铜供需缺口明确，铜价牛市有望延续 20260111 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点及策略 黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 从业资格号：F0285615 0769-22119245 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 供给及库存 4 初加工及终端市场 5 供需平衡表及产业链结构 资料来源：钢联、华联期货研究所 资料来源：钢联、华联期货研究所 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 宏观：美国对委内瑞拉军事 ...

Group 1 - The core logic for 2026 is "a rising tide lifts all boats," indicating that various asset classes will have opportunities, but volatility may increase compared to 2025 [4] - The stock market's key focus is not on index peaks but on whether new and old growth drivers can resonate together, with technology remaining the main theme [5] - The bond market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in interest rates, reflecting structural changes in the macro economy [5] Group 2 - From a country allocation perspective, the gradual appreciation of the RMB presents a revaluation opportunity for Chinese assets, which have medium to long-term allocation value [6] - Long-term prospects for equity assets are positive, but valuation has significantly increased since September 2024, necessitating a reduction in return expectations [6] - The commodity market is anticipated to enter a "super cycle" due to de-globalization and supply chain reconstruction, although participation requires careful risk management [6] Group 3 - The commodity market is expected to see a healthy rotation, transitioning from gold to industrial metals like copper and aluminum, and then to new energy products [7] - 2026 is projected to be a significant year for commodities, with both trends in gold and copper continuing, as well as potential for low-priced commodities to surge [8] - In a declining risk-free interest rate environment, asset allocation should prioritize offensive directions, particularly in the stock market and commodities [8]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a high level of enthusiasm, with a focus on theme stocks and small-cap stocks, while traditional investment funds are more cautious [2] - The expectation is that the market will continue to show a pattern of oscillation and upward movement until the National People's Congress, driven by improved domestic demand expectations [2] - There is a recommendation to focus on resources and traditional manufacturing sectors, as well as to increase allocation in non-bank financials to reduce portfolio volatility [2] Group 2 - A-share valuations are expected to continue to rise, with a potential rebound in overall ROE by 2026, influenced by factors such as increased profits from emerging industries and a slowdown in PPI [3] - The influx of certain types of funds, including regulatory, insurance, and bank wealth management funds, is seen as a solid foundation for the A-share market [3] - The market is likely to see a continuation of the spring rally, with a focus on small-cap stocks and potential adjustments providing good entry points for investors [3] Group 3 - The current market environment suggests limited downside risk and significant potential for upward movement, particularly in the commercial aerospace sector, which is experiencing positive changes [5] - The market is characterized by a concentration of themes and strong trading sentiment, with upcoming earnings reports expected to drive structural adjustments [5] - There is a focus on sectors such as AI, semiconductor, and resource price increases as key areas for investment [9] Group 4 - The spring rally is supported by improved liquidity and a favorable economic environment, with expectations of continued strong performance in the A-share market [6] - The focus on technology and growth sectors is expected to provide significant investment opportunities, particularly in AI applications and commercial aerospace [11] - The market is likely to remain strong leading up to the Spring Festival, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and economic recovery [14]