Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market showed an adjustment trend yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products rising slightly. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory level remained high. In the long term, the steel consumption side still has the basis for gradual recovery. However, in the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. With the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output is temporarily stable, and the demand is flat. It is expected to operate within the shock range [5]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market risk appetite has weakened comprehensively. Although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side continues to shrink, and the demand side has no significant marginal change. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. - For polysilicon, it is still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range is expected to be limited, and the price will fluctuate widely within the range [17]. - For glass, multiple production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3089 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (1.046%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 43,558 tons, a net increase of 338 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.432705 million lots, a decrease of 80,706 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance overall. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Hot-Rolled Coils - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot-rolled coil main contract was 3295 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.764%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on the day were 113,732 tons, a decrease of 2,656 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.082089 million lots, a decrease of 42,534 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot-rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils continued to recover, but the output decreased slightly, and the inventory level remained high. The steel demand has officially entered the off-season, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils still exists. The subsequent reduction rhythm needs to be paid attention to. In the short term, due to weak demand in the off-season and high plate inventory, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. However, with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro environment, steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, up 0.64% (+5.00), with a position change of -10,742 lots to 449,800 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 922,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 51.75 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.14% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month in the latest period. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron output decreased month-on-month, and the number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts. The inventory of iron ore was still high overall, but there were structural contradictions. In the short term, the molten iron output was temporarily stable, and the demand was flat. It was expected to operate within the shock range [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market Information - On November 24, the main contract of silicomanganese (SM601) rebounded by more than 1.3% during the session and finally closed up 0.43% at 5630 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 silicomanganese in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a premium of 210 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) once rebounded nearly 1% during the session and then fell back, finally closing down 0.29% at 5456 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with a discount of 56 yuan/ton to the futures price [7][9]. - The silicomanganese price showed a weak trend, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at the 5600 yuan/ton level. The ferrosilicon price was still in the shock range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the support situation at the 5400 yuan/ton level [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the past week, the market risk appetite weakened comprehensively. Affected by factors such as the weakening of the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the decline in coking coal prices, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased significantly. However, with the increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the possible end of the decline in coking coal prices, although the downward pressure on prices still exists, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. For the black sector, it may be more cost-effective to look for positions to rebound rather than short. The fundamentals of silicomanganese are still not ideal, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. The supply and demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8940 yuan/ton, down 0.22% (-20). The weighted contract position increased by 982 lots to 428,650 lots. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 410 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a basis of 10 yuan/ton after converting to the futures price [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon continued to weaken yesterday. The short-term funds were fast in and out, and the sentiment changed rapidly. Attention should be paid to the volatility risk. On the fundamental side, the weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the supply side continued to shrink. The demand side had no significant marginal change. The cost side provided support for the futures price. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon was expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to phased emotional disturbances [14][15]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,315 yuan/ton, down 0.08% (-45). The weighted contract position increased by 3363 lots to 235,435 lots. The average price of N-type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N-type reclaimed material was 52.25 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of -1065 yuan/ton [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Polysilicon was still in a tug-of-war between reality and expectations. The supply-demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short-term destocking range was expected to be limited. The prices of silicon wafers and cells had loosened, and the price pressure still existed. The spot price of upstream silicon materials was relatively firm, facing the price feedback pressure from downstream. The price would fluctuate widely within the range under the influence of news. The focus in the future was still on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of glass closed at 1013 yuan/ton, up 2.63% (+26). The quoted price of large plates in North China was 1070 yuan, down 10 from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1080 yuan, down 10 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.303 million boxes, up 56,000 boxes (+0.09%). In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders increased their positions by 9 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 39,552 lots [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Multiple glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the supply-demand mismatch has been alleviated. Although the policy has released positive signals, the supply-demand structure is still imbalanced, and the short-term market is expected to continue to operate weakly [20]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton, up 1.11% (+13). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1153 yuan, up 13 from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6444 million tons, down 62,900 tons (-3.70%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, down 19,800 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, down 43,100 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 holders of long orders decreased their positions by 21,776 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders decreased their positions by 50,267 lots [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure in the soda ash market remains high, but the demand side has shown marginal improvement, and the cost support still exists. It is expected to maintain a shock consolidation pattern in the short term [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand surplus of industrial silicon has narrowed due to the dry season in Southwest China, and its price is expected to fluctuate within a range. For polysilicon, the single - direction operation is difficult due to the fundamental surplus and the undetermined "anti - involution" situation [5]. - The "anti - involution" measures for polysilicon have certain impacts on price and production capacity, but the implementation of policies such as storage and capacity reduction has uncertainties [28]. - The demand for photovoltaic main materials continues to decline, and the inventory of polysilicon has increased this week [37][44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 21, the spot prices of some industrial silicon grades in East China increased slightly, while the industrial silicon futures 2601 contract decreased by 0.7% week - on - week to 8960 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures 2601 contract decreased by 1.3% week - on - week to 53360 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Industrial Silicon**: Southwest China has entered the dry season for production cuts. Although Xinjiang's production is still being released, the total industrial silicon output in November is expected to drop to about 400,000 tons. There are also some potential production projects in the future, but the "anti - involution" policy may affect their implementation [5][9]. - **Polysilicon**: The "anti - involution" measures have led to the restoration of enterprise profits and the resumption of production, increasing the difficulty of capacity clearance and inventory reduction. The impact of policies such as price limits, energy consumption limits, and storage on the supply side has uncertainties [28]. 3.3 Cost Side - The prices of raw materials and auxiliary materials are relatively stable, but the electricity price in Southwest China will rise during the dry season, leading to an increase in production costs and production losses in the region [24][26]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Photovoltaic Main Materials**: From November to December, the production of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in China is expected to decline. The inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers has increased, and the demand for overseas markets has declined [37]. - **Organic Silicon**: The joint production reduction plan of organic silicon monomer plants will be implemented on December 1, which is expected to reduce the monthly consumption of industrial silicon by about 4,400 tons [50]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production rate of aluminum alloy in November is at a high level, and the output in October was 1.682 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 19.5% [52]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of November 20, the social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipts) was 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The total inventory of factory and social (including warehouse receipts) was 725,800 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous period [55]. 3.6 Spread and Arbitrage - For industrial silicon, new orders, options, and basis trading are on the sidelines. Upstream enterprises can conduct low - proportion selling hedging, and downstream enterprises such as polysilicon can conduct appropriate buying hedging according to orders [5]. - For polysilicon, hold light - position long orders and set stop - losses. Hold short - put options and manage risks. Upstream enterprises can conduct appropriate selling hedging at high positions, and downstream enterprises can conduct appropriate buying hedging to lock in costs [5]. 3.7 Policy and Industry Events - There are a series of policies and events in the photovoltaic industry at home and abroad, including the "anti - involution" governance in the domestic photovoltaic industry, the adjustment of energy consumption standards for polysilicon, and the trade policies of the United States and the European Union towards the photovoltaic industry [28][63][64].

Copper - Copper prices showed weak fluctuations overnight, influenced by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts in December due to concerns over a deteriorating job market [1] - LME copper inventory increased by 725 tons to 155,750 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 5,905 tons to 371,391 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 5,974 tons to 43,816 tons [1] - Overall demand for copper is slowly recovering, with downstream acceptance improving, but high global visible inventory levels are constraining future price movements [1] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.75% to $14,730 per ton, while SHFE nickel increased by 0.69% to 116,100 CNY per ton [2] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 468 tons to 253,482 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 708 tons to 34,493 tons [2] - The nickel market is under pressure due to weak demand in the stainless steel sector, despite tight raw material supply in the new energy industry [2] Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - Alumina prices showed slight strength, with AO2601 closing at 2,733 CNY per ton, a 0.07% increase [3] - SHFE aluminum prices experienced a slight decline, with AL2512 closing at 21,405 CNY per ton, up 0.12% [3] - The aluminum market is facing pressure from inventory buildup and cautious macroeconomic sentiment, despite some recovery in aluminum ingot outflows [3] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 8,940 CNY per ton, down 1% [4] - Polysilicon prices increased, with the main contract closing at 53,315 CNY per ton, a 1.15% rise [4] - The market for polysilicon is under pressure due to reduced orders for silicon wafers, although there is a strong intent to maintain prices for silicon materials [5] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 2.88% to 90,480 CNY per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping by 150 CNY per ton to 92,150 CNY per ton [6] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 585 tons to 22,130 tons, with significant contributions from spodumene and brine sources [6] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for 14 consecutive weeks, but the pace of inventory reduction is slowing, indicating potential price risks in the short term [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both weak, with slow inventory depletion for industrial silicon and high inventory levels for polysilicon. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short term, while polysilicon is expected to remain in high - level oscillations, supported by anti - involution policies and market expectations. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes of large northwest factories and the implementation of policies [6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated significantly this week. As of November 21, 2025, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract showed a weak oscillation, then a sharp rise and fall, and closed at 8960 yuan/ton on November 21 [6]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's start - up rate remained stable, with stable supply. There were few changes in the start - up in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu in the Northwest. Some silicon enterprises in Yunnan reduced or stopped production, with a slight decline in output. Sichuan is in the flat - water period and will enter the dry - water period at the end of the month, with a further decline in the start - up rate. Overall, industrial silicon production decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly start - up of polysilicon enterprises remained stable, with relatively stable demand for industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon was basically stable, with a small increase in monomer production capacity recently. After the organic silicon anti - involution meeting, the price increased, but then fell. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises increased slightly, with good downstream order demand. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,100 tons, a 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year decrease [6]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 548,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from last week [6]. - **Price Difference**: As of November 21, 2025, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 300 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [15]. - **Output**: As of November 21, 2025, the number of national industrial silicon open furnaces was 267, a decrease of 3 from the previous week; the start - up rate was 33.13%, a 0.37% decrease; the weekly output was 95,900 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week [22]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable this week. As of November 21, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The futures main contract fluctuated sharply at a high level and closed at 53,360 yuan/ton on November 21 [8]. - **Supply**: In November, with the shutdown of a large number of production capacities in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry - water period, the polysilicon output is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a significant decrease from October. The output is expected to continue to decline in December [8]. - **Demand**: The current terminal demand is weak. The terminal component prices are weakly stable, while the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells continue to fall. Downstream crystal - pulling enterprises have a low willingness to purchase and only maintain rigid restocking. In October, the polysilicon import volume was 1446.4 tons, a 12% month - on - month increase; in September, the polysilicon export volume was 1547.9 tons, a 28% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21, the polysilicon factory inventory was 268,500 tons, an increase of 2800 tons from last week [8]. Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: As of November 21, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.25, 1.25, 1.275, and 1.575 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.115, 0.115, 0.04, and 0.05 yuan/piece from last week. Overseas demand declined, battery prices accelerated to the bottom, cost - side games increased, and the later decline space may be small [30]. - **Batteries**: As of November 21, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.295, 0.295, 0.278, and 0.292 yuan/watt respectively, a decrease of 0.01, 0.01, 0.004, and 0.01 yuan/watt from last week. The battery market continued to be under pressure, demand was low, inventory digestion still needed time, and price competition intensified [34]. - **Components**: As of November 21, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.68, 0.7, 0.68, and 0.7 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The component market operated weakly and stably, prices were slightly loose, mainstream enterprises had not made large - scale adjustments, and the market as a whole showed a state of policy support but no demand support [38]. Organic Silicon - As of November 21, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the industry start - up rate was basically stable. After the anti - involution meeting, the price increased, and currently, the high - sentiment has basically been digested by the market [42]. Aluminum Alloy - As of November 21, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from last week. Downstream orders were good, and the start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises increased slightly [46].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For specific industries: - **Industrial Silicon**: The investment view is that the price may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and the trading strategy is a unilateral, fluctuating - upward trend [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4.8 - 5.8, and the trading strategy is a unilateral, fluctuating trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has a callback pressure and may fluctuate widely after stabilizing, and the trading strategy is to partially close long positions [89]. 2. Core Views The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, cost - profit, and other aspects of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It points out that industrial silicon may fluctuate strongly in the short - term due to supply - demand reduction and increased inventory reduction; polysilicon is in a situation of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the anti - involution policy will continue to be promoted; lithium carbonate has a callback pressure due to factors such as the slowdown of inventory reduction and the increase of overseas ore supply, but the terminal demand remains strong [7][8][89]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 8.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42%. The output and furnace - opening numbers in major producing areas have decreased. The production in November is expected to be 38.95 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.88% [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of polysilicon is 2.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly output of silicone is 4.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% [7]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 66.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%, and the industry inventory is 44.82 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [7]. - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.04%, and the profit per ton is - 40 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 16 yuan [7]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.75 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The production in major producing areas shows different trends [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of silicon wafers is 12.75GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The new installed capacity in September 2025 is 9.66GW, a month - on - month increase of 31.25% [8]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.92 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%, showing continuous inventory accumulation [8]. - **Cost - Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41714 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%, and the profit per ton is 8391 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 226 yuan [8]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national weekly output is 2.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.72%. The production in November is expected to be 9.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% [89]. - **Import**: In October, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 2.39 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.86%, and the import volume of lithium concentrate was 53.10 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.02% [89]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of iron - lithium materials is 10.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.15%. In October, the output of new energy vehicles was 177.20 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.59% [89]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 11.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%, and the inventory of lithium salt factories is 2.61 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.96% [89]. - **Cost - Profit**: The cost of purchasing lithium mica and lithium spodumene for lithium extraction is 97058 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 11.09%, and the profit is negative [89].

工业硅周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 市场情绪降温，工业硅冲高回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅冲高回落，主因工业品市场情绪有所回落，多 晶硅产能出清平台仍未落地，有机硅减产情绪短期有所释 放。供应来看，新疆地区开工率维持85%，西南地区枯水 期开工率回落，内蒙和甘肃产量平稳，供应端继续收缩； 从需求侧来看，多晶硅产能出清平台迟迟无法兑现，龙头 企业挺价撑市但下游 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon has weak fundamental drivers, and its balance sheet may be less optimistic than expected due to lower - than - expected exports and the impact of the silicone "anti - involution" movement. The short - term price may fluctuate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4][11][16]. - The contradiction between the fundamentals and the policy side of polysilicon is increasing. The spot price of leading enterprises is expected to remain stable, while the low - price supply of small and medium - sized factories may decline slightly. The futures main contract may operate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [3][4][16]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 8,960 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9,000 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon decreased by 685 yuan/ton to 53,360 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Speculation Boosts Industrial Silicon Price, and Silicon Wafers Lower Quotes Again - **Industrial silicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated widely. Furnace numbers in Xinjiang decreased by 4, in Yunnan by 2, increased by 2 in Inner Mongolia, and by 1 in Gansu. In December, the number of open furnaces in Sichuan is expected to be within 10, and in Yunnan around 12. Social and factory inventories increased. In October, exports were 45,000 tons, a 35.82% month - on - month decrease [11]. - **Organic silicon**: The price increased significantly under the "anti - involution" movement. A new price mechanism and supply - side dynamic regulation mechanism were established. The overall market is in a wait - and - see state [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract fluctuated. Leading manufacturers' prices remained stable, while low - price ranges showed signs of loosening. Production in November is expected to drop to 115,000 tons, and factory inventory reached 271,000 tons as of November 20 [3][13]. - **Silicon wafers**: Prices declined significantly. As of November 20, inventory was 18.72GW. The M10 model has fallen into a cash - loss state [14]. - **Battery cells**: Prices continued to decline. As of November 17, inventory was 10.21GW. Battery cell manufacturers are in a cash - flow loss state [14]. - **Components**: Prices were basically stable. Demand declined, and there are concerns about a significant drop in production in December [15]. 3. Investment Recommendations - **Industrial silicon**: Pay attention to range - trading opportunities between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4][16]. - **Polysilicon**: Focus on range - trading opportunities for the futures main contract between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton [4][16]. 4. Hot News Compilation - Two leading silicon wafer companies lowered quotes due to insufficient orders. - In October 2025, industrial silicon exports were 45,073 tons, a 35.82% month - on - month and 30.78% year - on - year decrease. - Anhui's mechanism electricity prices for 2025 - 2026 were announced, with a total scale of 5.8677 billion kWh, using 65% of the planned mechanism electricity [17]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Industrial silicon**: Data on spot prices, weekly production, and inventory in different regions are presented [19][22][25]. - **Organic silicon**: Information on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production is provided [31][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory inventory, and weekly production are included [37][38]. - **Silicon wafers**: Information on spot prices, factory inventory, and weekly production is shown [39][41]. - **Battery cells**: Data on spot prices, profit calculations, export factory inventory, and monthly production are presented [46][49][50]. - **Components**: Information on spot prices, profit calculations, finished - product inventory, and monthly production is provided [53][56][58].

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate has hit a trading limit down, indicating a significant market correction driven by policy intervention and fundamental market dynamics [3][4]. - Regulatory measures by the Guangxi Futures Exchange aim to prevent excessive speculation that could harm the real economy, suggesting that the market is being cooled rather than ending [3][4]. - The volatility in the lithium carbonate market reflects a disconnect between bullish price expectations and current market realities, highlighting the speculative nature of recent trading [4][5]. Group 2: Methanol Market Outlook - The 05 contract for methanol is highlighted as a potential opportunity due to expected improvements in the fundamental market conditions [7]. - Key factors influencing the methanol market include potential gas supply restrictions from Iran, domestic supply reductions, and a possible demand recovery from MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) operations [8][9][10]. - The market sentiment is expected to shift towards a de-stocking phase starting mid-December, which could positively impact prices [12][20]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Market - A recent conference involving major players in the organic silicon industry has led to a coordinated reduction in production, effective from December 1, which is expected to alleviate supply pressures on upstream industrial silicon [21][23]. - The price of DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) has increased significantly, reflecting the industry's efforts to stabilize prices amid long-term losses and supply-demand imbalances [23]. - The market's quick response to the news indicates a strong sentiment towards self-regulation within the industry, which could bolster confidence moving forward [23]. Group 4: Nickel Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend, breaking through key support levels, driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels [29][30]. - The anticipated tightening of nickel supply has not materialized, leading to a bearish outlook as demand growth remains insufficient to absorb the excess supply [32][33]. - The market is expected to remain under pressure due to high inventories and a lack of significant demand recovery in the near term [33]. Group 5: Futures Market Overview - The futures market shows a clear divergence between bullish opportunities in certain commodities like iron ore and bearish trends in others like coal and agricultural products [46][49][55]. - The core logic driving these trends revolves around supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic policies, and seasonal factors affecting various commodities [48][54][57]. - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified approach while closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting strategies accordingly [58].

行业 能源化工周报 日期 2025 年 11 月 21 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油、沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 | ⇒ 原油 . | | --- ...