Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is still showing a slowdown trend. After the news of Yajiang today, it has a significant impact on the three major downstream demands of industrial silicon. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to long - term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9,260 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 565 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 383,296 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 3,956 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 70,457 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,674 lots; the warehouse receipt of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 50,393 lots; the price difference between industrial silicon in August - September is 5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the basis of the Si main contract is 240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 415 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC is 10,860 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no change [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no change; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.38%, a week - on - week increase of 1.97 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 117,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. Industry News - A major monomer factory in Shandong had a sudden fire yesterday, and the damage to the device is unknown. It is expected that the quotation in the organic silicon market will rise today. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council approved the establishment of China Yajiang Group Co., Ltd. Zimbabwe's state - owned mining enterprise Kuvimba Mining House plans to break ground on a concentrator with an annual processing capacity of 600,000 tons of lithium concentrate at its Sandawana mine in the third quarter of this year, with a total investment of 270 million US dollars, and it is expected to be put into operation in early 2027 [2]. Supply - side Analysis - The current fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have not reported any news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest region has decreased. The resumption of production in Baoshan is relatively active, but the resumption scale in Nujiang and Dehong has not met expectations. Sichuan manufacturers mainly focus on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants to maintain production, and the overall operating rate has not increased significantly [2]. Demand - side Analysis - In the organic silicon field, the spot price has risen, production profits have declined, costs have increased, the operating rate has increased, and it supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon field, mainstream enterprises are reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, downstream photovoltaic demand has declined significantly, and the demand for industrial silicon has decreased. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, inventory has increased, prices have declined, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the elastic space [2][4] - Stainless Steel: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Pay attention to lithium mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand are in the process of destocking, and the futures market is relatively resilient [2][12] - Polysilicon: Market sentiment is fermenting, and the futures market has an upward driving force [2][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,500 yuan, the stainless - steel main contract was 12,725 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 94,302 lots, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 162,130 lots. Other data such as import nickel prices, spreads, and production costs also showed corresponding changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; Some nickel smelters and cold - rolling mills in Indonesia had production adjustments; The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period; The approved production target in 2025 was higher than that in 2024; Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,960 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,206,323 lots and a position of 377,305 lots. Other data such as spot prices, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; There were intensive policy deployments in the new - energy vehicle industry; A Zimbabwean state - owned mining enterprise planned to build a lithium - concentrate beneficiation plant [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 was 8,695 yuan/ton, and that of PS2509 was 43,850 yuan/ton. There were also data on trading volume, position, spreads, spot prices, profits, and inventories [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: Two component tenders were postponed or terminated [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (relatively strong) [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: Macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but the real - world situation limits the upside potential. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and real - world supply - demand [4][5]. - Industrial silicon: The industry is in a de - stocking phase, and the resumption of production at upstream factories is a key factor to watch. For polysilicon, it is a policy - driven market, and it may be safer to go long on dips [30][34][35]. - Lithium carbonate: Driven by the "Anti - Involution 1.0 + Lithium Mine 2.0" policies, the price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the approval of mining licenses in August [63][66]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - **Nickel**: Macro and news improve market sentiment, but the real - world fundamentals limit the price elasticity. The support from the nickel ore end is weakening, and the supply expectations from the smelting end restrict the upside [4]. - **Stainless steel**: Macro - expectations boost the futures market, but real - world supply - demand is still a drag. The market is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Inventory Changes** - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. Nickel - iron inventory pressure is high but slightly eased, and stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [6][7]. - China's port nickel - ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9,483,600 wet tons [9]. - **Market News** - Multiple events such as potential export restrictions, project startups, factory resumptions, and production suspensions in the nickel and stainless - steel industries were reported [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose, with the futures closing at 8,695 yuan/ton on Friday. Polysilicon futures soared, closing at 43,850 yuan/ton on Friday, and the spot price also increased [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Industrial silicon**: Supply - side production increased, with Southwest China having a hedging action. The overall industry inventory continued to decline, with a social inventory reduction of 4,000 tons and a factory inventory reduction of 1,000 tons. Demand from polysilicon and organic silicon provided short - term support [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply increased marginally as some factories resumed production. The upstream inventory decreased, but the terminal demand was weak, and the price increase transmission was not smooth [32][33]. - **Market Outlook** - Industrial silicon is expected to be resilient before the end of the market sentiment, and the resumption of production at upstream factories is crucial. Polysilicon is in a policy - driven market, and going long on dips may be a safer strategy [34][35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The lithium carbonate futures contracts accelerated their upward movement. The 2509 contract closed at 69,960 yuan/ton, up 5,680 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose by 2,900 yuan/ton to 66,650 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Policy issues in Jiangxi and Qinghai regions affected the market. Lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching 19,115 tons this week, a 1.61% increase [64]. - **Demand**: The inventory accumulation of downstream cathode materials slowed down. The new - energy storage project installation scale decreased significantly in June [65]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of lithium carbonate continued to increase, mainly concentrated in the trading sector, while the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,364 tons to 10,239 tons [65]. - **Market Outlook** - Driven by policies, the lithium price is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously, with the futures main - contract price expected to range from 55,000 to 75,000 yuan/ton. A positive spread strategy is recommended for the inter - period trading, and selling hedging is advised [66][67][68].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 3.33%, mainly driven by the rise in polysilicon. Polysilicon rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but the increase converged and prices fell on Friday. Next week, the futures prices are expected to consolidate at high levels with a downward - shifting center of gravity [5]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, the spot price increased significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Northwest Yili region remained stable, and large - scale producers showed no signs of production cuts. The production cost in the Southwest decreased, with some regions having a positive resumption of production. On the demand side, the overall demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continued to slow down [5]. - For polysilicon, on the supply side, the overall production increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some under maintenance. On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declined significantly, and downstream demand weakened marginally. The overall demand side still faces great pressure [5]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7800 - 9200. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with an oscillation range of 40000 - 45000 and a stop - loss range of 38500 - 46000 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.33% this week, driven by polysilicon. There were rumors of silicon material storage, but they were unconfirmed. Polysilicon prices rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but prices fell on Friday due to weak downstream feedback [5]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply increased, and demand from downstream industries slowed down. For polysilicon, supply increased slightly, and demand faced great pressure. If the silicon material storage rumor is disproven next week, prices are expected to fall [5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term within 40000 - 45000, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [5]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures and spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 655 yuan/ton. The production and operating rate increased, with a national output of about 78,900 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 54.33% [11][13][20]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the spot price remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, and the basis was 2150 yuan/g [15][17]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - **Raw Materials and Costs**: Industrial silicon raw material prices fell slightly, electricity prices decreased, and overall costs continued to decline during the wet season. The electricity price in the Southwest was stable at 0.3 yuan/kWh, and the silica price remained stable [23][26]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, and the overall inventory remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, a decrease of 435 lots, and the total social inventory was 553,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [28][30]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, but costs increased significantly, leading to a decline in profits. As of July 18, 2025, the weekly output was 44,900 tons, the operating rate was 71.38% (up 1.97%), the spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), the gross profit was 63 yuan/ton (down 263 yuan/ton), and the cost was 10,797 yuan/ton (up 323 yuan/ton) [33][37][44]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices fell, inventory increased significantly, and passive de - stocking continued. As of July 18, 2025, the price was 20,100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), and the inventory was 37,200 tons (up 5800 tons) [46][48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, while polysilicon prices rose, but downstream acceptance was weak. As of July 18, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.17 yuan/piece (down 0.02 yuan/piece), and the battery cell price was 0.26 yuan/watt (down 0.02 yuan/watt) [53][55]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, while the industrial silicon price increased, leading to higher production costs. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month (a 3.15% month - on - month decrease) [60][65].

多晶硅盘中巨震振幅高达6.67%，最高触及4.6万关口，此后高位回落再次企稳4.3万之上。 多晶硅期价冲高回落 机构：短期或延续偏强整理 17日，广州期货交易所(下称"广期所")发布《关于对多晶硅期货实施交易限额及调整工业硅期货SI2509合约交易限额的通知》。 截至7月18日，本周多晶硅(N型致密料)市场均价46.2元/千克，即期制造成本约40.08元/千克，即期单公斤净利约为6.1元/千克。价格方 面，本周多晶硅N型致密料均价环比上涨5.7元/千克。成本方面，硅粉价格上涨，成本环比上涨0.53元/千克，本周多晶硅环节净利润环比 上涨5.17元/千克。(Mysteel) 银河期货表示，近期多晶硅市场传言较多，且主要交易"反内卷"、不低于成本销售。本周多晶硅、硅片、电池、组件均召开相关会议， 确定标杆成本及价格，多晶硅价格上涨已顺利向下传导，需进一步关注电站环节动向。当前主力合约涨超45000元/吨，理论上厂家卖交 割已不再低于完全成本。价格已至高位，前期多单可止盈离场，新进多单可日内操作。工业硅方面，银河期货分析称，近两周期货价格 走强，西北硅厂向贸易商大量出货，工业硅库存由工厂转移至贸易商，部分显性库存隐 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial Silicon: Short - term watch [3] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish in the long - term [6][8] 2. Report Core View - Industrial silicon's supply - demand pattern has improved due to low开工 of northwest and southwest factories and lower - than - usual production in the southwest, with reduced inventory. The overall commodity sentiment has a positive impact, but the influence of policies on the industrial silicon industry needs attention. For polysilicon, recent price increases are driven by policies and funds. Policy implementation and price transmission need to be monitored, and it is suitable for long - term low - level long - position layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 8,750 yuan/ton and closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous settlement. The main contract's open interest was 381,048 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, an increase of 142 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton [1]. - As of July 17, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 547,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 427,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [1]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The DMC price of Shandong monomer enterprises increased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,800 yuan/ton this week, while the prices of other domestic monomer enterprises remained stable. The market's mainstream transaction center was around 10,800 yuan/ton. Although the low - price quotes in the domestic market increased slightly, the matching degree of transactions decreased, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness was limited due to sufficient raw material inventory [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term watch, and short - position holders should pay attention to stop - losses or use options for protection [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 17, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 43,900 yuan/ton and closing at 45,700 yuan/ton, a 7.49% increase from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 70,964 lots (71,783 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 410,795 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 32.00 - 36.60 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.80 yuan/kg), dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 44.50 - 49.00 yuan/kg (an increase of 1.25 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 45.00 yuan/kg [3]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a decrease of 9.78% from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02 GW, a decrease of 5.70%. The weekly polysilicon output was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 5.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.10 GW, a decrease of 3.37% [4]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.25 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.67 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.32 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.43 yuan/piece (an increase of 0.28 yuan/piece) [4]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.24 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W [5]. - **Strategy** - In the long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions when the price is low. In the short - term, be cautiously bullish [6][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US tariff policy and Trump's vision of manufacturing reshoring and revitalizing the traditional petrochemical energy system will challenge global economic growth and drag down the global photovoltaic industry. In the second half of the year, China's manufacturing industry is expected to return to an expansion trend. The anti - involution meeting will promote effective capacity reduction in the photovoltaic industry, and the expansionary fiscal policy and flexible and loose monetary policy will inject vitality into the Chinese economy [3][61]. - In terms of supply, the production in Xinjiang was under pressure in the first half of the year, the production in Sichuan and Yunnan was extremely low during the dry season, and the new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was limited. The number of open furnaces nationwide decreased. After the anti - involution meeting, the photovoltaic industry's capacity reduction will accelerate in the second half of the year. It is expected that the annual output in 2025 will drop to 3.8 million tons, a decrease of about 22% compared with last year [3][61]. - In terms of demand, the anti - involution meeting emphasizes eliminating backward production capacity in the photovoltaic industry. The downstream battery and component markets will reduce production and load, and the terminal ground - based power station installation volume and photovoltaic glass production will decline significantly. The upstream silicon materials will enter a passive contraction cycle. Organic silicon has limited price - increase space under the dual pressures of cost squeeze and demand decline, and the output of aluminum alloy may not rebound due to the slowdown in real - estate completion and infrastructure investment. It is expected that the total consumption of industrial silicon in China in 2025 will decrease by about 5% compared with last year [3][48][62]. - In the second half of 2025, with the gradual clearance of excess capacity in the photovoltaic industry, the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon will improve significantly. The domestic manufacturing industry will return to the expansion range, and the futures price may enter a stable upward cycle. It is expected that the main operating range of industrial silicon in the second half of 2025 will be between 8,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [3][62]. Summary by Directory 2025 First - Half Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the industrial silicon futures price first declined and then rebounded. The price dropped from 11,130 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a minimum of 6,990 yuan/ton in early June, a decline of 37.2%. In the first quarter, the supply - demand imbalance was aggravated. Although the production in the southwest was low, the new production capacity in Gansu and Inner Mongolia was put into operation, and the consumption of silicon materials decreased. After April, enterprises rushed to install before the new policy on May 31, but the price still fell. After the anti - involution meeting in June, the price rebounded from the bottom, and the main contract rebounded to 8,280 yuan/ton by the end of June [8]. Macroeconomic Analysis Strengthening the Domestic Cycle and Promoting a Unified Market, with the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Remaining Moderately Loose - In the first half of the year, China's economy faced challenges such as the deterioration of the global trade situation and the slowdown of GDP growth. The central bank implemented a series of policies, including lowering the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1% to 1.4%, reducing the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5%, and increasing re - loan quotas. China's economy showed a stable and progressive trend in the first half of the year, with industrial production accelerating, high - tech industries developing rapidly, and domestic demand gradually recovering [10][11]. Manufacturing PMI Marginally Expanded and Rebounded, and the Anti - Involution Meeting Emphasized Capacity Reduction in Key Industries - In June, China's official manufacturing PMI index rebounded to 49.7, close to the boom - bust line. The production and new - order indexes were in the expansion range, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity. The anti - involution meeting emphasized the governance of the photovoltaic industry's low - price and disorderly competition, aiming to guide the withdrawal of backward production capacity and promote high - quality development [12][14]. Fundamental Analysis Domestic Production: Xinjiang's Production Remained at a High Level Throughout the Year - In the first half of the year, the production in the northern main production areas of industrial silicon gradually recovered, but the recovery in Xinjiang was less than expected. The production in Sichuan and Yunnan was at a historical low during the dry season. The new production capacity in Inner Mongolia and Gansu compensated for the shortage in the southwest. In the second quarter, the production in the main production areas rebounded slightly. The total industrial silicon output in the first half of the year was 1.869 million tons, a significant decrease of 17.9% year - on - year. The output proportion was gradually shifting to the north [16][17]. The Newly - Added Domestic Production Capacity from 2025 - 2026 Will Significantly Slow Down - As of June this year, China's total industrial silicon production capacity reached 7.483 million tons, with an effective production capacity of 7.408 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate in 2024 was only 65.6%. From the first quarter of this year to the end of 2026, the total newly - added construction and put - into - production capacity is 2.382 million tons, with 1.782 million tons planned for 2025 and only 600,000 tons expected in 2026. The supply - side reform of the photovoltaic industry will ease the over - supply pressure [30][31]. Domestic Inventory Remained at a High Level, and the Export Growth Rate Slightly Declined - As of July 3, the domestic social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, a slight increase of 13,000 tons compared with the end of last year. The warehouse - receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange first increased and then decreased. From January to May, the cumulative export of industrial silicon was 272,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Although the external demand for industrial silicon is increasing, the export volume is expected to decline slightly in the second half of the year due to the supply - side reform of the photovoltaic industry [38][39]. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis The Anti - Involution Meeting Guides Capacity Reduction, and the Photovoltaic Industry's Supply - Side Reform Is in Progress - In the first half of the year, the polysilicon market was in a difficult situation, with high inventory, falling prices, and weak demand. After the anti - involution meeting, the production volume in July may drop to below 90,000 tons, a significant decrease of more than 20% compared with December last year. The silicon wafer, battery, and component markets also faced challenges such as over - supply and price decline. The photovoltaic glass manufacturers agreed to jointly reduce production by 30%, and the photovoltaic installation volume is expected to decline significantly in the third quarter [41][44]. Organic Silicon: Cost Collapse and Weak Demand, with Limited Rebound Space Expected in the Second Half of the Year - From January to June, the cumulative output of organic silicon DMC was 1.227 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The DMC price declined due to cost collapse and weak demand. The production profit in the second quarter shrank significantly, and some small and medium - sized enterprises were forced to stop production for maintenance. It is expected that the output of organic silicon will decline in the third quarter [45]. The Aluminum Alloy Output Increased Steadily, but the Real - Estate and Building Materials Industries May Struggle in the Second Half of the Year - From January to May, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 7.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. However, the real - estate market's completion growth rate is expected to be sluggish, and the infrastructure investment growth rate has cooled slightly. The output growth rate of aluminum alloy is expected to drop to 3 - 5% in the second half of the year, and the processing fees of various aluminum products may continue to decline [47]. The Demand Growth Rate of Industrial Silicon Will Continue to Slow Down in the Second Half of 2025 - The photovoltaic industry will face capacity - reduction pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand for industrial silicon from organic silicon and aluminum alloy will also be affected. It is expected that the total consumption of industrial silicon in 2025 will decrease by about 5% compared with last year [48]. 2025 Second - Half Market Outlook - The US tariff policy and Trump's policies will challenge the global photovoltaic industry. In the second half of the year, China's manufacturing industry will expand, and the anti - involution meeting will promote the photovoltaic industry's capacity reduction. The supply of industrial silicon will decrease, and the demand will also slow down. It is expected that the supply - demand pattern will improve, and the futures price will enter a stable upward cycle, with the main operating range between 8,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].

Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Report Highlights 1. Market Performance and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures fluctuated. The closing price of Si2509 was 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The trading volume was 1,033,119 lots, and the open interest was 381,048 lots, with a net increase of 1,200 lots [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of 553-grade in Inner Mongolia was 8,800 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 8,550 yuan/ton. The price of 421-grade in Inner Mongolia was 9,050 yuan/ton, in Xinjiang was 9,000 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan was 9,300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: After continuous price increases, the spot price stabilized. The strong performance of polysilicon drove industrial silicon to fluctuate strongly. The improvement in fundamentals was limited. In the second week of July, the output of industrial silicon remained at 72,000 tons. The resumption of production in the southwest产区 offset the production cut of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July is expected to remain at 310,000 tons. Demand improved marginally. The production schedule of polysilicon increased slightly in July, and the demand for organic silicon remained stable. In the short term, the fundamental driving force was limited. The strong rise of polysilicon may drive the current price to continue to increase, but from the perspective of average cost and the cancellation price of previous warehouse receipts, 8,800 - 9,200 yuan/ton is a resistance range to be challenged. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4]. 2. Market News - On July 18, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,354 lots, a net increase of 142 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - In the second week of July, the average price of polysilicon N-type re-feeding material was 45,500 yuan, and the average price of N-type dense material was 44,000 yuan [5]. - In the second week of July, the national comprehensive price of industrial silicon was 8,851 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan/ton. Among them, the price of 553-grade was 8,602 yuan/ton, 441-grade was 8,852 yuan/ton, and 421-grade was 9,425 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton, 100 yuan/ton, and 128 yuan/ton respectively. The comprehensive prices in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan were 8,749 yuan/ton, 9,734 yuan/ton, and 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price remained stable overall [5].