Group 1: Market Outlook for Each Metal Copper - Market Review: On October 20, the Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 85,380 yuan/ton, up 0.73%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 6,102 lots to 536,600 lots. Spot copper prices had a stable bottom - support, with Shanghai spot copper at a premium of 60 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Guangdong inventory decreased after the weekend, but downstream procurement was sluggish due to high prices. The North China market was mainly for rigid - demand and long - term order delivery, with low activity [2]. - Logic Analysis: Macro - economically, Sino - US trade relations eased, and the 3rd Plenary Session of the 14th Central Committee was in focus. Fundamentally, supply - side disturbances in copper mines increased, with expectations of processing fees dropping to 0 dollars/ton or lower next year. SMM predicted that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons, a decrease of 38,500 tons from the previous month. Consumption showed a marginal weakening, but rigid demand was resilient [7]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a "buy - on - dips" approach, be cautious about chasing high prices. Hold cross - market positive spreads, take profit when the export window opens, and then enter positive spreads again. Consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. Keep options on hold [8]. Alumina - Market Review: The Alumina 2601 contract rose 4 yuan to 2,806 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a downward trend, with some regions experiencing price drops [9]. - Logic Analysis: The previous supply - demand surplus in alumina was absorbed by downstream electrolytic aluminum plant stockpiling, but as stockpiling was completed, the surplus became more significant. Some production cuts and maintenance started in October, and more were expected in November [12]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Keep an eye on supply - side changes. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract fell 80 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,272 lots to 487,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions also declined [14]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US officials' communication improved market sentiment. Economic data releases and important Chinese meetings were in focus. Fundamentally, consumption resilience supported prices [17]. - Trading Strategy: With improved macro - expectations, take a "buy - on - dips" approach to aluminum prices, be cautious about chasing high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2512 contract fell 125 yuan to 20,350 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 107 lots. Spot prices in different regions remained stable [22]. - Logic Analysis: Sino - US officials' communication improved market sentiment. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supported costs, but high social inventory and warehouse receipts might suppress the upside. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [26]. - Trading Strategy: With improved tariff panic, take a "buy - on - dips" approach to aluminum alloy prices, which are expected to strengthen in the medium - term. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [27]. Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 contract fell 0.34% to 21,850 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Zinc Index adding 7,322 lots to 236,600 lots. Spot trading in Shanghai was mainly among traders, with downstream enterprises having low purchasing enthusiasm [30]. - Logic Analysis: At the mine end, import losses of zinc ore increased, and domestic processing fees declined. At the smelting end, although profits were narrowed, smelters' enthusiasm remained high. Consumption was expected to weaken as the traditional peak season passed. An external - strong and internal - weak pattern was likely to continue [35]. - Trading Strategy: Partially liquidate profitable short positions and re - short at high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [37]. Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai Lead 2512 contract rose 0.12% to 17,090 yuan/ton, with the Shanghai Lead Index adding 1,361 lots to 81,300 lots. Spot prices increased slightly, and downstream battery manufacturers had a certain purchasing willingness [39]. - Logic Analysis: With the resumption of production of secondary lead and the increase in primary lead production in mid - to - late October, lead supply might increase, and prices were at risk of falling [41]. - Trading Strategy: Hold profitable short positions and add short positions at high prices. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42]. Nickel - Market Review: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 fell 630 yuan to 120,860 yuan/ton, with the index adding 7,691 lots. Spot premiums of Jinchuan nickel increased, while those of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained stable [44]. - Logic Analysis: The macro - environment became more volatile. Although nickel ore prices provided cost support, the supply - demand surplus was difficult to reverse. Nickel prices were expected to oscillate widely with a downward trend [47]. - Trading Strategy: Short when prices rebound to the upper limit of the oscillation range. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The Stainless Steel main contract SS2512 fell 20 yuan to 12,595 yuan/ton, with the index reducing 5,239 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were at certain levels [52]. - Logic Analysis: The spot price was below the steel mill's cost. Terminal demand in October was still not optimistic, and steel mills might further cut production. Stainless steel was likely to remain in a weak - oscillation pattern [53]. - Trading Strategy: Expect weak oscillations. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage [56]. Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai Tin 2511 contract closed at 279,340 yuan/ton, down 2,040 yuan/ton or 0.72%, with positions decreasing by 1,300 lots to 63,665 lots. Spot prices were stable, and downstream purchasing improved slightly [59]. - Logic Analysis: Trade uncertainties and concerns in the US credit market pressured LME metals. Although Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining, the impact on tin production was limited. Supply was still tight, and demand recovered slowly. Tin prices were expected to oscillate weakly [61]. - Trading Strategy: Tin prices may oscillate weakly in the short term due to macro - disturbances. Temporarily hold off on options trading [62]. Industrial Silicon - Logic Analysis: In November, polysilicon production cuts would be negative for industrial silicon demand. Before large - scale production cuts in Southwest industrial silicon plants, there was a slight surplus, and prices were under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, price support might appear after production cuts in November [67]. - Strategy Suggestion: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for a full correction. There are no arbitrage and option strategies for now [68]. Polysilicon - Logic Analysis: In November, leading manufacturers' production cuts would significantly improve the supply - demand balance. Currently, with no further news on capacity integration, some funds left the market, and the futures price might correct further [75]. - Strategy Suggestion: Avoid long positions in the short term. Hold reverse spreads of the 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range of (- 3300, - 3000). Adjust the previous double - buying strategy, take profit on the put option and hold the call option [77]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The Lithium Carbonate 2601 contract rose 40 yuan to 75,940 yuan/ton, with the index adding 387 lots and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increasing by 19 to 30,705 tons. Spot prices increased [81]. - Logic Analysis: Lithium carbonate prices rose, and lithium ore prices also increased. Although imports in September decreased, demand was strong, and prices might rise further if supply risks occurred [83]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a "buy - on - dips" approach. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [86]. Group 2: Important Industry Data Copper - Inventory: As of October 20, SMM national mainstream copper inventory increased by 9,100 tons to 186,600 tons compared to last Thursday. Imported copper supply was expected to continue, while domestic supply was expected to decrease. Consumption was expected to slightly recover, and weekly inventory might decrease [3]. - Production: Zijin Mining's copper production from January to September was 830,000 tons, up 5% year - on - year. In Q3, production was 260,000 tons, down 6% quarter - on - quarter [6]. - Trade: In September 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,586,873.52 tons, down 6.24% month - on - month but up 6.43% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 374,075.58 tons, up 21.76% month - on - month and 7.44% year - on - year [3][4]. Alumina - Inventory: As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, up 115,000 tons from the previous week. Some electrolytic aluminum plants increased long - term order execution and spot purchases, but transportation issues affected inventory distribution [11]. - Trade: In September 2025, China exported 246,000 tons of alumina, up 36.5% month - on - month and 82.3% year - on - year; imported 60,000 tons, down 36.4% month - on - month but up 61.7% year - on - year [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Inventory: On October 20, China's aluminum ingot spot inventory was 620,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from last Thursday [16]. - Production: From January to September, real estate development data showed a decline in construction area, new construction area, and completion area [16]. Zinc - Inventory: As of October 20, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 165,300 tons, up 2,200 tons from October 13 and 2,600 tons from October 16 [31]. - Trade: In September 2025, China imported 505,400 tons of zinc concentrates, up 8.15% month - on - month and 24.94% year - on - year; imported 22,700 tons of refined zinc, down 11.6% month - on - month and 57% year - on - year [31][32]. Lead - Inventory: As of October 20, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five major regions monitored by SMM was 37,700 tons, up 1,800 tons from October 13 [40]. - Trade: In September 2025, lead concentrate imports increased 11.72% month - on - month but decreased 7.21% year - on - year. Refined lead exports decreased 46% month - on - month, and imports decreased 17.17% month - on - month [40]. Lithium Carbonate - Trade: In September 2025, China imported 19,596.90 tons of lithium carbonate, down 10.30% month - on - month but up 20.49% year - on - year; exported 150.82 tons, down 59.12% month - on - month and 9.08% year - on - year [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains negative, and the industry inventory is still at a high level. Although the number of standard warehouse receipts has decreased, inventory digestion still faces certain pressure. Industrial silicon started to recover slightly today, but it is expected to maintain a volatile operation. Whether it can rise in the future depends on the production reduction situation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,565 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 135 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 114,236 lots, a decrease of 17,557 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -37,784 lots, an increase of 4,414 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 49,303 lots [2] - The closing price of the December contract for industrial silicon was -365 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price difference between the November - December contracts for industrial silicon was -365 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of the Si main contract was 785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC was 11,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 366,800 tons, an increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons [2] - The monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1,337.59 tons, an increase of 1,220.14 tons; the monthly export volume was 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2,635.83 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg [2] - The average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.53 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.01 US dollars/kg [2] - The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 69.36%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.635 million tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4,154.82 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On October 16, Hesheng Silicon Industry repaid 900 shares of margin - shorted stocks and sold 1,700 shares. The selling amount was 84,400 yuan, accounting for 0.07% of the outflow amount on that day. The margin balance was 3.3669 million yuan, lower than the 40% quantile level in history [2] - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments adjusted the value - added tax policy for wind power generation. In terms of industrial silicon, on the supply side, the spot market price of industrial silicon mainly declined this week compared with last week. Sichuan and Yunnan are transitioning from the wet season to the dry season in October, and the production cost of manufacturers has increased, accelerating the implementation of production reduction plans. Some enterprises that have exhausted their raw materials have chosen to stop production. Some small factories in Gansu and Ningxia have completed raw material reserves and are waiting to enter the market. Currently, some manufacturers in Xinjiang are actively producing, and some are conducting transactions with futures - cash merchants, locking in profits in advance through forward contracts. On the demand side, the downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields [2] 3.7 Demand Analysis of Downstream Industries - In the organic silicon sector, the inventory is lower than the historical average. The production profit has rebounded slightly but is still in the loss range. The comprehensive operating rate has decreased month - on - month and is lower than the historical average, with a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon [2] - In the polysilicon sector, the inventory is as high as 275,000 tons, higher than the historical average. Silicon wafers and solar cells are in a loss state, and only components are profitable [2] - In the aluminum alloy sector, the overall inventory has decreased slightly, the price has remained flat, the operating situation of the aluminum alloy industry is stable, but the demand is average, and the driving effect on industrial silicon is limited [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific products: - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish [8] - **Polysilicon**: Sideways [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Bullish [88] 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the new energy sector have not changed significantly, but news has triggered market fluctuations. For example, the polysilicon futures price rose due to the news of a capacity storage platform, but the market sentiment may drive the price down after the rumor was confirmed false [9]. - Industrial silicon supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, so the silicon price may be weak. Lithium carbonate prices are pushed up in the short - term due to supply - demand mismatch, but the long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged [8][88]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Colored and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Price Data**: The report provides the closing prices, daily, weekly, and annual percentage changes of various有色金属 and new energy products. For example, the current price of industrial silicon is 8,685 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.52%, a weekly decrease of 3.07%, and an annual decrease of 20.94% [6]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 97,500 tons, a 2.09% increase from the previous week. The production in the northwest region is increasing. September production was 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase from the previous month, and the planned production in October is 456,600 tons, an 8.52% increase from September [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of polysilicon and silicone has decreased. For example, the weekly production of polysilicon is 31,500 tons, a 1.28% decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory**: The dominant inventory is 696,100 tons, a 0.31% increase from the previous week, with a 21.52% increase year - on - year [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,087 yuan, remaining the same as last week, and the profit per ton is 132 yuan, a 1 - yuan decrease from last week [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and the silicon price may be weak [8]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 31,500 tons, a 1.28% decrease from the previous week. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from September [9]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 13.66 GW, a 0.11% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.31 GW, a 3.16% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 26,350 tons, a 3.78% increase from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 25,830 tons, a 5.77% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,493 yuan, a 0.12% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 9,107 yuan, a 50 - yuan increase from last week [9]. - **Macro Factor**: On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a document emphasizing not to bid below cost [9]. - **Investment View**: Sideways. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the price may return to the previous sideways range after the false rumor [9]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 20,600 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week. The planned production in October is about 90,000 tons, a 3.09% increase from September [88]. - **Import**: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.79% increase from the previous month. In September, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 11,100 tons, a 14.49% decrease from the previous month [88]. - **Demand**: - **Lithium Salt Materials**: The weekly production of iron - lithium materials is 78,200 tons, a 0.12% increase from the previous week. The weekly production of ternary materials is 19,000 tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous week [88]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In September, the production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 16.29% increase from the previous month, and the sales were 1.604 million vehicles, a 14.96% increase from the previous month [88]. - **Energy Storage**: From January to August, the cumulative domestic energy - storage winning bid power was 41.09 GW/111.43 GWh, a 20.71%/53.55% increase year - on - year [88]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 132,700 tons, a 1.59% decrease from the previous week. Lithium salt factory inventory is 34,300 tons, a 1.34% decrease from the previous week [88]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium mica - extracted lithium is 75,870 yuan/ton, a 2.49% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 5,918 yuan/ton, a 1,397 - yuan increase from last week [88]. - **Investment View**: Bullish. Strong terminal demand stimulates downstream purchases, leading to inventory reduction. Although production has increased, which may suppress the futures price, the short - term supply - demand mismatch pushes up the price [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].

Report on the Rubber Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View In the short - term, the rubber price may follow the macro - led market due to the lack of obvious fundamental drivers. If the raw material supply is smooth during the peak production season in the main producing areas, the price may decline further; if not, the price is expected to run around 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Category - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 17, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan to 14,250 yuan, with a decline of 0.35%. The whole - milk basis increased by 155 yuan to - 445 yuan, with an increase of 25.83%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 50 yuan to 14,650 yuan, with an increase of 0.34%. The non - standard price difference increased by 255 yuan to - 45 yuan, with an increase of 85.00% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 350% to an unspecified value, the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 10 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 32 yuan [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 2.00 to 458.80, with a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8.50 to 189.00, with a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5.00 to 50.00, with an increase of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12.20 to 113.70. The weekly开工率 of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires increased by 26.21 and 20.56 respectively. In August, domestic tire production increased by 859.00 to 10,295.4, with an increase of 9.10%. In September, tire exports decreased by 671.00 to 5,630.0, with a decline of 10.65%. In August, the total import of natural rubber increased by 4.60 to 52.08 million tons, with an increase of 9.68%. In September, the import of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 8.00 to 74.00 million tons, with an increase of 12.12% [1]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 486 to 456,039, with a decline of 0.11%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE decreased by 1,210 to 40,119, with a decline of 2.93% [1]. Report on the Glass and Soda Ash Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the idea of shorting on rebounds should be continued. For glass, in the medium - and long - term, the industry needs to clear excess capacity, and if the demand continues to weaken, it can be treated as bearish [3]. Summary by Category - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On October 17, the North China glass price decreased by 30 yuan to 1,180 yuan, with a decline of 2.48%; the South China price decreased by 40 yuan to 1,270 yuan, with a decline of 3.05%. The glass 2505 contract decreased by 53 yuan to 1,231 yuan, with a decline of 4.13%; the glass 2509 contract decreased by 38 yuan to 1,322 yuan, with a decline of 2.79%. The 05 basis increased by 23 yuan to - 51 yuan, with an increase of 31.08% [3]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract decreased by 31 yuan to 1,294 yuan, with a decline of 2.34%; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased by 24 yuan to 1,360 yuan, with a decline of 1.81%. The 05 spread increased by 31 yuan to 6 yuan, with an increase of 124.00% [3]. - **Supply**: On October 17, the soda ash operating rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and the weekly production increased by 2.5 million tons to 77.08 million tons. The float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.2 million tons to 16.13 million tons, with an increase of 1.16% [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 346.9 million weight boxes to 6,282.40 million weight boxes, with an increase of 5.84%. The soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 6.0 million tons to 165.98 million tons, with an increase of 3.74%; the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.7 million tons to 69.91 million tons, with an increase of 4.05% [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area increased by 0.09% to - 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43% to 0.05%, the completion area decreased by 0.03% to - 0.22%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% to - 6.55% [3]. Report on the Log Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View Currently, there is no obvious driver in the log supply - demand situation. The near - month 11 contract is weak, while the far - month 01 contract is relatively strong. The 01 contract may be treated as bullish [4]. Summary by Category - **Futures and Spot Price**: On October 17, the log 2511 contract increased by 7 yuan to 804 yuan per cubic meter, with an increase of 0.88%; the log 2601 contract increased by 11 yuan to 835.5 yuan per cubic meter, with an increase of 1.33%. The prices of major benchmark delivery spot products remained unchanged [4]. - **Supply**: In September, the port shipping volume increased by 10.0 million cubic meters to 176.6 million cubic meters, with an increase of 6.00%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 2.0 to 46.0 [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 299 million cubic meters, an increase of 13 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. - **Demand**: As of October 10, the average daily log delivery volume was 5.73 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.83 million cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Report on the Industrial Silicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The industrial silicon price is under pressure due to increased supply and accumulated inventory, but there is cost support below. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan per ton. If the 11 - contract price drops to 8,000 - 8,300 yuan per ton, buying on dips can be considered [5]. Summary by Category - **Spot Price and Main - contract Basis**: On October 17, the prices of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged. The basis of different varieties increased to varying degrees [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 180 yuan to 185 yuan, with an increase of 640.00%; the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 35 yuan to - 420 yuan, with a decline of 9.09% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In the month, the national industrial silicon production increased by 3.51 million tons to 42.08 million tons, with an increase of 9.10%. The Xinjiang production increased by 3.36 million tons to 20.32 million tons, with an increase of 19.78%. The national operating rate increased by 6.07% to 61.94%. The organic silicon DMC production decreased by 1.29 million tons to 21.02 million tons, with a decline of 5.78%. The polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 million tons to 13.00 million tons, with a decline of 1.29% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.01 million tons to 10.85 million tons, with a decline of 0.09%. The social inventory increased by 1.70 million tons to 56.20 million tons, with an increase of 3.12% [5]. Report on the Polysilicon Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The polysilicon market is relatively stable, mainly in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to policy implementation, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand - side orders. If there are long positions, they can be closed at high prices [7]. Summary by Category - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 17, the average price of N - type re - feeding material increased by 50 yuan to 52,800 yuan per ton, with an increase of 0.09%. The N - type material basis increased by 285 yuan to 460 yuan, with an increase of 162.86% [7]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract decreased by 235 yuan to 52,340 yuan per ton, with a decline of 0.45%. The spreads between different contracts changed to varying degrees [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In the week, the silicon wafer production increased by 1.52GW to 14.35GW, with an increase of 11.85%. In the month, the polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 million tons to 13.00 million tons, with a decline of 1.29%. The polysilicon import volume decreased by 0.02 million tons to 0.10 million tons, with a decline of 14.02%; the export volume increased by 0.09 million tons to 0.30 million tons, with an increase of 40.12% [7]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 1.30 million tons to 25.30 million tons, with an increase of 5.42%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.53 million tons to 17.31 million tons, with an increase of 3.16% [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. Supply increased while demand remained sluggish, and costs had some upward support. It is expected that the supply will increase next week, demand recovery will be at a low level, and the market is likely to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 12 contract showed an upward trend this week. Supply is expected to increase, and although short - term demand in some sectors may decrease, it is expected to recover in the medium term. The market is expected to have a neutral oscillatory adjustment next week [7][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The 01 contract had an opening price of 8,595 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 8,430 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.91% [4]. - **Supply**: This week's supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week. Sample enterprise production was 48,285 tons, a 2.93% increase. Different regions had varying changes in production rates, and the expected monthly production rate is 69.23%, a 7.29 - percentage - point increase from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week's demand was 74,000 tons, a 9.75% decrease from the previous week. Demand in various downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy was generally weak [5]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 3,126 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 168,000 tons, a 0.09% increase; and major port inventory remained unchanged at 120,000 tons [5]. - **Outlook**: Supply is expected to increase next week, demand recovery will be at a low level, and the market is likely to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The 12 contract had an opening price of 48,575 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 52,340 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 7.75% [7]. - **Supply**: Last week's production was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged. The planned production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from last month [7]. - **Demand**: In different downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, there were different changes in production, inventory, and profit situations. Some sectors were in a loss state, and some were profitable [7]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon material was 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 16,650 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Outlook**: Supply is expected to continue to increase next week. Although short - term demand in some sectors may decrease, it is expected to recover in the medium term, and the market is expected to have a neutral oscillatory adjustment [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: Analyzed the trends of the basis and the spread between delivery products of industrial silicon [15]. - **Inventory**: Presented the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and types of warehouses, including delivery warehouses and ports [19]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Showed the production, capacity utilization, and production rate trends of industrial silicon in different regions and by different specifications [21]. - **Cost**: Analyzed the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, including factors such as electricity prices, silica prices, and graphite electrode prices [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Provided weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon and its downstream products such as polysilicon, showing the supply, demand, and balance situations in different periods [30][33][56]. - **Downstream Analysis**: Analyzed the production, price, inventory, and supply - demand situations of industrial silicon's downstream products, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [35][41][44][52]. 3. Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The SI main contract showed a downward trend this week. Based on price and volume data and moving average analysis, it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [75][76]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The PS main contract showed an upward trend this week. Based on price and volume data and moving average analysis, it is expected to have a narrow - range oscillatory adjustment next week [77][78].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing fluctuations with a recent decrease in prices and a reduction in open interest, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and supply dynamics [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the week ending October 17, 2025, industrial silicon futures closed at 8430 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.38% from an opening price of 8595 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 8860 CNY/ton and a low of 8415 CNY/ton [1]. - The open interest decreased by 35,242 contracts compared to the previous week [1]. Spot Market Overview - The spot market for industrial silicon showed mixed sentiments, with prices for various products: - 553 industrial silicon at 8750 CNY/ton, down 1.13% day-on-day - 99 silicon powder stable at 10050 CNY/ton - Trichlorosilane at 3375 CNY/ton, stable - Organosilicon at 11300 CNY/ton, stable [2]. Production Insights - In the second week of October, industrial silicon production remained steady at 95,700 tons, with a projected monthly output of 420,000 tons [3]. Institutional Perspectives - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that supply from Xinjiang is increasing, while the southwestern region is expected to initiate significant production cuts by the end of October to early November, despite current price pressures [4]. - Hualian Futures highlighted that electricity price adjustments in the southwestern region may lead to more production cuts, while demand from polysilicon manufacturers remains stable without significant increases. Some downstream organic silicon facilities are expected to undergo maintenance, indicating a potential for increased inventory ahead of the traditional peak season [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Nickel is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations in the short - term, with contradictions still accumulating. Stainless steel has no obvious upward drive in the supply - demand situation, but cost limits the downside space. Industrial silicon's supply - demand is expected to weaken, and for polysilicon, the policy logic remains, with attention on the implementation node. Lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly due to the significant reduction of futures warehouse receipts [2][5][6][29][34][35][67][69]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel Fundamentals**: The contradiction between smelting - end inventory accumulation and the Indonesian nickel ore logic is intense. Refined nickel has marginal supply increase and weak demand, but the substitution of nickel - iron for nickel - plate in the alloy end and the uncertainty of Indonesian nickel ore policies affect the price. The short - term price has support at the bottom while inventory is accumulating at a high level [5]. - **Stainless Steel Fundamentals**: In the long - term, the stainless - steel industry may shift from a supply - strong and demand - weak logic to a supply - demand double - weak thinking. In the short - term, there is a lack of upward drive in the fundamentals, but cost limits the downside space. The 10 - month production schedule shows a marginal increase, and the cumulative surplus has converged compared to previous years [6]. - **Inventory Tracking**: On October 17, China's refined nickel social inventory increased, LME nickel inventory also increased. For stainless steel, the upstream inventory is high, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing [9]. - **Market News**: There are events such as Indonesia's sanctions on mining companies, changes in RKAB policies, and potential tariff increases by the US, which all have an impact on the market [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile, and the spot price declined. The polysilicon futures price was strongly volatile, and the spot price was stable [29]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to increase in October, and the southwest region may reduce production in the future. The demand from downstream sectors has different trends, and overall, the industry inventory is accumulating. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase in October and then decrease, and the demand from the silicon - wafer end is expected to be strong in October and may change later. The 10 - month supply - demand will accumulate inventory, and the inventory accumulation will slow down from November to December [30][31][34][35]. - **Trading Suggestions**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high prices, with the expected next - week futures price range of 8200 - 8700 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips, with the expected next - week futures price range of 51000 - 54000 yuan/ton [35]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: This week, the lithium carbonate futures price strengthened, while the spot price declined slightly. The basis and the spread between different contracts also changed [67]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The futures warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate decreased significantly, indicating strong demand in the spot market. The production reached a new high, and the demand is expected to be optimistic until November, but the US tariff policy on Chinese energy storage needs attention [68]. - **Trading Suggestions**: It is recommended to be bullish but not chase the price in the single - side trading. For inter - period trading, positive spreads are recommended. For hedging, option hedging is suggested [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices have a more defined lower limit, and it is more cost - effective to go long at low prices. For polysilicon, the spot price in October is expected to remain flat, and it is not recommended to chase long positions, but rather consider going long when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price [3][17] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 255 yuan/ton to 8430 yuan/ton. SMM spot prices of East China oxygen - blown 553 and Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton and 8750 yuan/ton respectively. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon increased by 3375 yuan/ton to 52340 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon was 53200 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Focuses on Cost Floor, Polysilicon Subject to Large News - Driven Fluctuations - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures main contract weakened. Northern large factories resumed production, while some southern silicon factories cut production in advance. It is expected that there will be more significant production cuts at the end of October. The social inventory increased by 1.7 tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.01 tons compared to before the holiday. It is difficult to reduce inventory in November, and 1.5 tons of inventory will be reduced in December [1][11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price increased slightly. Some devices were under maintenance, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.99%, the weekly output was 4.63 tons (a decrease of 2.73% month - on - month), and the inventory was 4.18 tons (a decrease of 2.56% month - on - month). The price is expected to oscillate strongly [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures main contract rose. The spot price of first - tier manufacturers' dense material remained at 55 yuan/kg, and that of second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material was 51 yuan/kg. The spot trading volume was low after the holiday. The production volume in October is expected to be about 13.8 tons, and it will significantly decrease from November to December. The factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 25.3 tons (an increase of 1.3 tons month - on - month), and the polysilicon inventory of silicon wafer enterprises was 22.2 tons (an increase of 1.4 tons month - on - month). The spot price is expected to remain flat [2][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: The prices of some models decreased slightly. The actual final output in October may be higher than expected. As of October 16, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 17.31GW (an increase of 0.53GW month - on - month). The price is under pressure, and production cuts are needed to support it [14] - **Battery Cells**: The price trend was divided. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells remained flat, while that of G12R battery cells decreased to 0.285 yuan/W. As of October 13, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 6.63GW (an increase of 0.66GW month - on - month). The production volume in October was 58.65GW (a decrease of 1.5GW month - on - month) [15] - **Components**: The price remained basically stable. As of October 13, the finished product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 34.2GW (an increase of 0.6GW month - on - month). The production volume in October was 45.66GW (a decrease of 2.1GW month - on - month). The demand from November to December may not be optimistic. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [16] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: Due to weak fundamentals and poor macro - sentiment, the futures market weakened this week. After hedging, short - term price drops are unlikely to cause production cuts. It is more cost - effective to go long at low prices [3][17] - **Polysilicon**: It is maintained that the spot price will not fall in October. The market has rebounded significantly. It is not recommended to chase long positions. Consider going long when the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse spread opportunity when the spread is around - 2000 yuan/ton [3][17] 4. Hot News Summary - GCL Technology achieved a profit in the third quarter of 2025, with a profit of about 960 million yuan, compared with a loss of 1.81 billion yuan in the same period last year [18] - In Gansu, the mechanism electricity prices for wind and solar power are the same at 0.1954 yuan/kWh, with a mechanism electricity volume of 830 million kWh [18] - In Xinjiang, the mechanism electricity price for wind power is 0.252 yuan/kWh with a mechanism electricity volume of 18.5 billion kWh, and for photovoltaic power is 0.235 yuan/kWh with a mechanism electricity volume of 3.6 billion kWh [19] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Silicon**: Includes data on spot prices, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory [20][24][30] - **Organic Silicon**: Covers data on DMC spot prices, weekly profits, factory inventory, and weekly production [31][32][33] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on spot prices, weekly gross profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [35][37][38] - **Silicon Wafers**: Contains data on spot prices, average net profits, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly production [40][43][45] - **Battery Cells**: Includes data on spot prices, average net profits, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly production [46][49][52] - **Components**: Covers data on spot prices, average net profits, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly production [54][57][59]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]