2025 年 12 月 19 日 铜：内外库存减少，价格获得支撑 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 92,600 | -0.24% | 92870 | 0.29% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,727 | -0.13% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 288,527 | -1,237 | 622,036 | 5,683 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 31,364 | 14,534 | 345,000 | 611 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 44,650 | -227 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 164,275 | -2,650 | 37.47% | -1.14% | | | | ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-19 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 美国 11 月通胀数据低于预期，而美元指数偏稳，铜价震荡，昨日伦铜 3M 合约小幅收跌 0.13%至 11727 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 92870 元/吨。LME 铜库存减少 2650 至 164275 吨， ...

Group 1 - The company has a comprehensive production capacity of over 1,000 tons per year for precious metals including gold, silver, cadmium, and antimony [1] - The completion of the Hulunbuir Chihong precious metal comprehensive recovery and smelting project will add 380 tons per year of silver ingots and 230 kilograms per year of gold ingots, along with by-products such as antimony and bismuth [1] - The company's high-purity products currently include high-purity zinc and high-purity cadmium [1]

截至发稿，赣锋锂业市值为1310亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——海南封关政策红利全解析：零关税、低个税、投资准入放宽、跨境资金自 由、创业扶持…… （记者 王瀚黎） 每经AI快讯，赣锋锂业（SZ 002460，收盘价：62.49元）12月18日晚间发布公告称，李良彬先生及其一 致行动人累计质押股数约为1.07亿股，占其持有股份比例为26.29%，占公司总股本比例为5.1%。 2025年1至6月份，赣锋锂业的营业收入构成为：有色金属冶炼及压延加工业占比56.78%，锂电池和电 芯及其直接材料占比35.52%，其他占比7.7%。 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月17日晚间，创新新材发布公告称，公司2025年第四次临时股东大会审议通过《关于 公司及子公司2026年度向银行等金融机构申请综合授信额度及提供担保额度预计的议案》等多项议案。 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，1 美联储理事沃勒 | | | 表示，随着就业市场趋弱且通胀受控，美联储仍有 50 至 100 个基点的降息空间，但无需 | | | 急于行动，将以稳步、渐进方式把利率引向中性。国内来看，中央财办有关负责人表示， | | 铜 | 扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面， | | | LME 铜库存增加 325 吨至 166925 吨；COMEX 铜仓单增加 2130 吨至 414575 吨；SHFE | | | 铜仓单下降 907 吨至 44877 吨；BC 铜下降 797 吨至 6180 吨。日央行会议召开在即，宏 | | | 观存在一定扰动，海外金融市场波动或抑制风险情绪，短线谨慎为上。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2573 元/吨，涨幅 0.9%，持仓减仓 4202 手至 | | | 17.6 万手。沪铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AL2602 收于 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but with increasing volatility. After the digestion of macro negative factors, along with the recovery of technology stocks and the support of fundamentals, most non - ferrous metals have shown a rebound. However, due to different fundamental support, there are still differences in strength within the non - ferrous metals sector. Attention should be paid to whether Japan's interest rate hike is realized, and if it is in line with expectations, the impact may be limited. This week, important data and central bank decisions from various countries need to be focused on [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is strong but volatile. The market has a certain willingness to take profits. After the digestion of negative factors, the buying at dips for fundamentally strong varieties and positive news for some varieties have led to a rebound in non - ferrous metals. There are also various economic data and events in China, the United States, and Japan, as well as new regulations from the LME [11]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Variety**: - **Copper**: The price is expected to rise, with a support range of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 94,500 - 95,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy at dips [13]. - **Zinc**: It is in a corrective adjustment, with support at 22,800 - 23,000 and pressure at 23,500 - 23,800. It is recommended to wait and see [15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is in an oscillatory adjustment, alumina is oscillating at the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy is oscillating and adjusting. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties [15]. - **Tin**: It is in an oscillatory arrangement, with support at 290,000 - 300,000 and pressure at 335,000 - 340,000. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [15]. - **Lead**: It is oscillating weakly, with support at 16,500 - 16,600 and pressure at 17,200 - 17,300. A double - selling strategy is recommended [16]. - **Nickel**: It shows a rebound, with support at 110,000 - 112,000 and pressure at 120,000 - 122,000. It is recommended for a short - term rebound [16]. - **Stainless Steel**: It fluctuates at a low level, with support at 12,200 - 12,300 and pressure at 12,700 - 12,800. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, such as copper closing at 92,820 with a 0.98% increase, and zinc closing at 22,970 with a 0.26% decrease [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the price change, the strength comparison of net long and short positions, the difference in net long and short positions, and the influencing factors of each variety [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price at 92,340 yuan/ton with a 0.34% increase, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 23,020 yuan/ton with a 0.65% decrease [22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain Graphs related to the industry chain of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the exchange copper inventory change, zinc inventory change, and aluminum inventory and price comparison [26][29][32]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage Graphs related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the zinc Shanghai - London ratio change [59][60]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options Graphs related to the options of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper option historical volatility and the zinc option weighted implied volatility [78][80].

有色金属日报 2025-12-18 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 白银价格创新高，铜价上扬，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 1.06%至 10742 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 92860 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 325 至 166925 吨，注销仓单比例抬升，Cash/3M 小幅贴水。国内上期所日度 ...

对于铜价走势，金瑞期货表示，虽然CSPT小组达成降低矿铜产能负荷等共识，但目前冶炼利润尚有硫 酸支撑，且临近年底冶炼或仍回升。进出口方面，因出口打开，国内可能继续有出口安排。消费端，近 期下游消费表现仍走弱，开工保持在季节性低位。国内平衡无过剩压力的主要驱动或来源于出口。海外 方面，LME注销仓单大幅提升，紧张预期提前反映。展望后市，宏观边际上驱动放缓，基本面非美紧 张预期持续存在，短期宏微观驱动分化，价格或回归宽幅震荡。 沪铜早间小幅低开，日内行情回暖，收盘上涨0.4%。喜忧参半的美国非农数据一定程度提振美联储降 息预期，市场氛围偏暖，高铜价对需求的压制仍然存在，但矿端支撑同样较强。 隔夜公布的美国11月非农数据喜忧参半，虽然新增就业人口超过预期，但是失业率攀升至4.6%，为逾 四年高位，考虑到失业率的攀升可能受美国政府停摆影响，对于美国劳动力市场表现后续仍需跟踪。 最近国内铜精矿现货加工费低位运行，铜精矿市场活跃度一般，更多聚焦于长单谈判，矿紧仍将持续对 铜价形成支撑。上周五沪铜再创新高，最近期价也一直高位震荡，精废价差仍然高企，精铜消费受抑 制，12月初以来国内精铜社会库存持续回升，截至周初升至17万吨 ...

12月17日，受美联储降息升温催化，金价铜价走强，白银价格再创历史新高，贵金属有色金属齐涨，截至14:40，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.74%， 有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨2.91%，国城矿业盘中涨停，中矿资源涨超8%，兴业银锡、厦门钨业、天齐锂业等股跟随走强。 据知情人士透露，一直呼吁大幅降息的特朗普定于周三面试美联储理事克里斯·沃勒担任此职位。财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，预计本周还将进行 一到两次面试，并预计在 1 月初的某个时候宣布结果，新任美联储主席的任命将为明年的货币政策提供进一步信号。 贵金属精炼商 MKS Pamp SA 研究主管尼基·希尔斯预测，到 2026 年，黄金均价预计将达到每盎司 4,500 美元，这与众多看涨预测相呼应。希尔斯 在周二的一份报告中表示，继今年的"抛物线式飙升"之后，黄金短期内可能会盘整，"然后确立一个更温和、更可持续的看涨轨迹。" 有色金属ETF基金(516650)跟踪的中证细分有色金属产业主题指数，聚焦黄金及铜铝等工业金属、稀土与钨钼等小金属，以及锂钴等能源金属，各 金属权重为：铜30.9%，铝15%，黄金13.5%，稀土9.3%，锂8.8%。 ...