再再再 call【锑】：反转在即，重视底部布局机会 20250806 摘要 2020 年至 2024 年 8 月，锑价主要受光伏玻璃需求影响，从每吨 4 万 元上涨至 2021 年的八九万元，后在 22 万至 23 万之间横盘，主要受光 伏装机量增长和库存去化影响。 2024 年 9 月至今，出口管制政策导致多数时间出口接近零，国内市场 需求弹性大幅增加，直接影响价格波动。今年 2-3 月锑价曾涨至 16 万 元，后因打击走私回落至 18 万元。 出口管制减少了 40%的需求，因直接出口占国内总产量 40%。今年初 出口恢复至正常水平一半，后因查处走私再次清零，5-6 月出口量仅为 去年同期的 5%-10%，导致国内市场需求波动。 光伏玻璃产量从 5 月上旬接近 60 万吨降至当前单周约 51 万吨，环比下 滑 15%-16%。库存天数从 7 月初的 34 天降至 29 天，同比减少 5 天， 表明下游反周期库存累积不高。 近期国企出口放行和民企限制解除，显示出口管制有所放松。预计 Tia 出口拐点向上，若光伏玻璃企业盈利改善，补库需求可能增加 3-4 个百 分点，外需恢复至二三月份水平将增加约 20%需求。 ...

Research View Copper - Overnight, LME copper rose 0.78% to $9,708.5/ton, and SHFE copper rose 0.19% to CNY 78,370/ton; domestic spot imports remained at a loss [1]. - In June, US factory orders decreased 4.8% month-on-month, slightly better than the expected -5% but significantly lower than the previous value of 8.2%; durable goods orders decreased 9.4% month-on-month, lower than both the expected and previous value of -9.3% [1]. - LME copper inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons, indicating an end to the phased inventory accumulation; Comex copper inventory increased by 1,360 tons to 236,941 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 1,553 tons [1]. - During the off - season, terminal orders slowed down, and the procurement rhythm of the processing end maintained at the level of rigid demand. In early August, the market focused on Trump's deadline for Russia, the results of China - US negotiations, etc., and the macro - performance might be weak. There were also concerns about the market's view on US copper in the future under the 0 - tariff policy for US refined copper, the risk of price inversion and inventory relocation, and the contradictions accumulated in the fundamentals during the off - season. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated strongly. Overnight, AO2509 closed at CNY 3,194/ton, up 0.13%, with an increase of 9,804 lots in positions to 139,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly. Overnight, AL2509 closed at CNY 20,440/ton, down 0.07%, with a decrease of 2,632 lots in positions to 224,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly. Overnight, the main contract AD2511 closed at CNY 19,865/ton, down 0.08%, with a decrease of 5 lots in positions to 8,241 lots [1]. - The SMM alumina price rebounded to CNY 3,250/ton. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to CNY 30/ton. The price of Foshan A00 dropped to CNY 20,490/ton, and the price of Wuxi A00 was at a discount of CNY 20/ton. The processing fees of aluminum rods in Baotou and Henan remained stable, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, Linyi, Guangdong, and Wuxi increased by CNY 10 - 50/ton; the processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of 6/8 - series aluminum rods remained stable, while the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods decreased by CNY 31/ton [1]. - The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights of Shunda and Alufa led to an expected increase in supply. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of imports from Indonesia, the surplus pressure of alumina increased. The production of cast ingots from the replacement capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on the aluminum price center. The aluminum alloy in the off - season might follow the logic of Shanghai aluminum, and there was an expectation of spread repair in the peak season of 2511. In August, the supply - demand pattern of the aluminum industry was expected to shift from the upstream to the downstream [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.57% to $15,105/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.61% to CNY 120,640/ton. Yesterday, LME inventory remained at 209,082 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons [2]. - In terms of nickel ore, the domestic trade price of nickel ore slightly decreased, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore slightly decreased. For stainless steel, the raw material prices were differentiated. The transaction price center of nickel iron moved up to CNY 920/nickel point. Due to the previous slowdown in production and the strengthening of prices, the inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the stainless - steel crude steel output in August was expected to increase month - on - month [2]. - For primary nickel, the domestic inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis, and the output in August was expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons. In general, in the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. The fundamentals changed little overall, with support from the prices of nickel iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above, and the prices continued to fluctuate [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - water copper on August 4, 2025, was CNY 78,395/ton, up CNY 90 from August 1; the flat - water copper premium was CNY 155, up CNY 5 from August 1. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained at CNY 73,000/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by CNY 10 to CNY 60 [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,175 tons to 139,575 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 20,348 tons; total inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons. Comex inventory increased by 1,602 tons to 235,579 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 20.0 million tons [3]. - Other data: The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $9.3 to - $49.8/ton; the CIF bill of lading price remained at $59.0/ton; the active contract import loss increased by CNY 50 to CNY - 53.6/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was CNY 16,750/ton, up CNY 150 from August 1; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China remained at - CNY 150; the price difference between the first and second consecutive contracts of SHFE lead remained at - CNY 10. The price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) and recycled lead (≥pb98.5) increased by CNY 125 to CNY 16,725/ton, and the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong decreased by CNY 50 to CNY 14,350/ton [3]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 274,225 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 941 tons to 59,007 tons; weekly inventory increased by 29 tons to 63,283 tons [3]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $7.2, the CIF bill of lading price was $105.00, and the active contract import loss decreased by CNY 120 to CNY - 302/ton [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi quotation was CNY 20,470/ton, down CNY 60 from August 1; the Nanhai quotation was CNY 20,490/ton, down CNY 30 from August 1; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the spot premium was - CNY 30, down CNY 10 from August 1. The price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 600/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at CNY 640/ton. The FOB price of alumina remained at $377/ton, and the price of Shandong alumina remained at CNY 3,220/ton; the domestic - foreign price difference of alumina remained at CNY 202; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at CNY 6,332/ton [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 925 tons to 463,725 tons; SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,009 tons to 46,649 tons; total inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,527 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory remained at 0.0 million tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons to 4.6 million tons [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $49.65, the CIF bill of lading price was $107.50, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 20 to CNY - 1171/ton [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel plates was CNY 122,500/ton, up CNY 650 from August 1; the Jinchuan nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 300 to CNY 2,550; the 1 imported nickel - Wuxi price difference increased by CNY 250 to CNY 750. The price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at CNY 3,200/ton, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron (10 - 15%) remained at $0. The price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at CNY 465/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by CNY 2 to CNY 659/ton. The price of 304 No1 in Foshan and Wuxi increased by CNY 25 to CNY 12,425/ton; the price of 304/2B coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) decreased by CNY 300 to CNY 32,300/ton, and the prices of domestic 523 and 622 ordinary products decreased by CNY 2,000 to CNY 213,000/ton and CNY 227,000/ton respectively [4]. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 209,082 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 204 tons to 21,170 tons; weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons to 25,750 tons; stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons. The nickel social inventory (SHFE + Nanchu + hidden) decreased by 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and the stainless - steel social inventory data was invalid [4]. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium was - $228, the CIF bill of lading price was $85.00, and the active contract import loss increased by CNY 70 to CNY - 1085/ton [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 22,205/ton, down 0.6% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $2,505.5/ton, unchanged from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.86, down from 8.92 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 15 to CNY 5. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,170/ton and CNY 22,100/ton respectively; the domestic spot premium average increased by CNY 30 to CNY 20; the imported zinc premium average increased by CNY 30 to - CNY 10. The LME0 - 3 premium decreased by $1.75 to $2.5. The prices of zinc alloys Zamak3 and Zamak5 decreased by CNY 130 to CNY 22,795/ton and CNY 23,345/ton respectively, and the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) decreased by CNY 100 to CNY 21,200/ton [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons; LME inventory decreased by 3,825 tons to 97,000 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons to 8.72 million tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 14,907 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5,725 tons to 51,350 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 1,558 on August 1; the CIF bill of lading price was $135 [5]. Tin - Market prices: The main contract settlement price on August 4, 2025, was CNY 266,150/ton, up 0.7% from August 1; the LmeS3 price was $27,540/ton, down 2.1% from August 1; the Shanghai - London ratio was 9.66, up from 9.39 on August 1; the near - far month price difference increased by CNY 140 to - CNY 240. The SMM spot price increased by CNY 1,200 to CNY 265,800/ton. The prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by CNY 2,600 to CNY 257,500/ton and CNY 253,500/ton respectively. The domestic spot premium average remained at CNY 700, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by $15.5 to - $0.5 [5]. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 254 tons to 7,671 tons; LME inventory decreased by 50 tons to 1,900 tons. SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 7 tons to 7,293 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons to 1,390 tons [5]. - Import profit and loss: The active contract import profit was CNY 0, up from - CNY 25,128 on August 1; the tariff was 3% [5]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month price differences, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, spanning from 2019 to 2025 [6 - 48]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - Ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on the domestic non - ferrous industry, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers, and has written many in - depth reports [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [51].

锡 ： 日期 现货进口收益 现货出口收益 锡持仓 LME C-3M LME库存 LME注销仓单 2025/07/29 -18866.43 -18168.11 52135 11 1855 505 2025/07/30 -15730.44 -20986.82 51663 -7 1945 580 | 2025/07/29 | -18866.43 | -18168.11 | 52135 | 11 | 1855 | 505 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/07/30 | -15730.44 | -20986.82 | 51663 | -7 | 1945 | 580 | | 2025/07/31 | -12318.38 | -23691.25 | 49644 | -16 | 1945 | 580 | | 2025/08/01 | -18781.98 | -18020.23 | 49454 | -1 | 1950 | 535 | | 2025/08/04 | -15533.72 | -20919.14 | 49437 | -39 | 1900 | 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For aluminum, due to high macro uncertainty, prices are expected to adjust within a range in the short - term, and future developments in news and downstream off - season conditions should be monitored [9][10] - For zinc, short - term policy sentiment has basically been released, and medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices, leading to high - level adjustments [12][13] - For tin, the downward pressure is increasing [15] Summary by Catalog 01. Colored Weekly Market Review - The closing prices of futures main contracts and spot prices of various non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel) declined last week. For example, the copper futures main contract CU2509 fell by 850 yuan, a week - on - week decline of 1.07%, and the spot price of copper in Shanghai Wumei dropped by 1210 yuan, a week - on - week decline of 1.52% [7] 02. This Week's Colored Market Forecast Aluminum - **Logic**: Last week, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Macroscopically, Fed Chairman Powell was hawkish on monetary policy on Wednesday, and the market increased bets on interest rate cuts after the employment data was released on Friday. Fundamentally, in July 2025, the average fully - costed value of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,261 yuan/ton, down 1.7% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year. In August, alumina's support for costs emerged. The supply of bauxite is expected to decline while demand increases, and the inventory accumulation rate of bauxite in China is expected to slow down in August, with a turning point in inventory in August - September. In July, China's electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity increased slightly. As of August 4, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas increased [9] - **Viewpoint**: High macro uncertainty, short - term price range adjustment, and attention to news and downstream off - season conditions [10] Zinc - **Logic**: Last week, zinc prices weakened. The Shanghai - London ratio rebounded slightly and fluctuated below 8.1, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. In the spot market, the processing fees of zinc concentrates in many domestic regions were finalized at the beginning of the month, and the raw material inventory of smelters remained high. The import of zinc ore was at a loss, and smelters mainly purchased domestic zinc ore. The operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy decreased. The raw material inventory increased slightly, and the finished product inventory decreased. As of August 4, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased [12] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term policy sentiment released, medium - to long - term supply increase putting pressure on prices, high - level adjustment of zinc prices [13] Tin - **Logic**: Myanmar's Wa State is actively resuming production, and the market expects an increase in tin ore output. The production and operating rates of refined tin in Yunnan and Guangxi have recovered to some extent, but the raw material supply and inventory are still low, and processing fees remain at a low level. Downstream performance has weakened compared to the first half of the year, showing a situation of weak supply and demand [15] - **Viewpoint**: Increasing downward pressure [15] 03. Variety Data Aluminum - **Bauxite**: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week; the average price index of imported bauxite increased week - on - week. The arrival and departure volumes of bauxite at ports increased week - on - week [19][22] - **Alumina**: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week, the full cost increased week - on - week, and the profit in Shanxi decreased week - on - week [25] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total cost decreased week - on - week, and the regional price difference increased week - on - week. The operating rates of downstream processing sectors had different changes, and the inventory in bonded areas decreased, while the social inventory increased. The inventory in exchanges increased, and the basis and monthly spreads also changed [27][32][37] Zinc - **Zinc Concentrate**: The price of domestic zinc concentrate decreased week - on - week, the domestic processing fee remained unchanged week - on - week, and the import processing fee increased week - on - week. The enterprise production profit decreased week - on - week, the import loss decreased week - on - week, and the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang increased week - on - week [54][55] - **Refined Zinc**: The social inventory of zinc ingots increased week - on - week, the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week, the inventory of refined zinc in SHFE increased week - on - week, and the LME inventory decreased week - on - week [59] - **Galvanized**: The production decreased week - on - week, the operating rate decreased week - on - week, the raw material inventory decreased week - on - week, and the finished product inventory increased week - on - week [62] - **Zinc Basis and Monthly Spreads**: The basis and monthly spreads of zinc showed different changes week - on - week [65][66] Tin - **Refined Tin**: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces increased week - on - week, and the combined operating rate increased week - on - week [72] - **Tin Ingot Inventory**: The SHFE tin ingot inventory and China's regional social inventory increased week - on - week [75] - **Tin Concentrate Processing Fees**: The processing fees in Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi remained unchanged week - on - week [77] - **Tin Ore Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss level increased week - on - week [78] - **Spot Average Prices**: The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi decreased week - on - week [82]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the domestic bullish sentiment cooling and the US dollar index rebounding, copper prices are under pressure. The US tariff policy excluding refined copper and the unexpected US non - farm payrolls data have mixed impacts. Continued attention is needed on whether overseas markets trade on recession. In China, it's the off - season for the industry, and inventory reduction at low levels has slowed. Short - term Shanghai copper is at the July low, and technical support at this level should be monitored [2][56] - Aluminum: The domestic bullish sentiment has cooled, and aluminum prices have declined. The unexpected US non - farm payrolls data has a relatively small impact on aluminum prices. Attention should be paid to whether overseas markets conduct recession trading. At the industrial level, it's the off - season for downstream industries, the operating rate has dropped, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been rising. In the short term, with macro cooling and industrial inventory accumulation, aluminum prices are weak, and attention should be paid to the July low - level technical support [3][56] Summary Based on the Table of Contents 1. Macro Factors - Overseas: The non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly poor, leading to a significant decline in risk appetite [7] - Domestic: After the Politburo meeting, there was a strong willingness among bulls to close their positions [7] 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity - Price Trends - With the cooling of domestic bullish sentiment and the rebound of the US dollar index, copper prices have been under pressure. The US tariff policy and non - farm payrolls data have had mixed impacts on copper prices [2][56] 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Maintained at a Low Level - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. The domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply at the domestic mine end and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [22] 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Reduction Slowed - In the domestic off - season, the reduction of electrolytic copper inventory at low levels has slowed [2][27][56] 2.4 Downstream Initial Stage - No specific analysis content provided other than the figure of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity - Price Trends - The domestic bullish sentiment cooled, and aluminum prices declined. The impact of the unexpected US non - farm payrolls data on aluminum prices was relatively small [3][56] 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - No specific analysis content provided other than figures related to bauxite port inventory and alumina price 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - In the off - season for downstream industries, the operating rate has dropped, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been rising [3][56] 3.4 Downstream Initial Stage - No specific analysis content provided other than figures related to aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory 4. Conclusion - Copper: Similar to the core view, copper prices are under pressure due to various factors, and attention should be paid to overseas recession trading and low - level technical support [2][56] - Aluminum: Similar to the core view, aluminum prices are weak due to macro cooling and industrial inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to overseas recession trading and low - level technical support [3][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been fluctuating upwards. As a result, there may still be room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 80,943 lots, a decrease of 28,068 lots; the open interest was 167,671 lots, a decrease of 8,522 lots; the inventory was 20,349 tons, an increase of 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, a decrease of 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was - 70 yuan, a decrease of 595 yuan; the spot premium or discount in different regions had different changes, such as a 5 - yuan increase in Guangzhou, a 10 - yuan decrease in North China, and no change in East China; the spreads between different contract months also changed, with the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreasing by 70 yuan, and the spreads between other contract months having corresponding increases or decreases [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 141,750 tons; the spreads between different contract periods also changed, with the 0 - 3 - month contract spread increasing by 1.51 US dollars and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreasing by 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper price was 8.1387, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, an increase of 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: On July 30, 2025, the US government's decision on the Section 232 investigation of steel led to the exemption of import tariffs on electrolytic copper. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, causing a large amount of electrolytic copper to shift from COMEX warehouses to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Mine Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand the El Teniente mine, including three new ore layers. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion project is expected to contribute 2 - 3 tons of copper production increment in 2025, reaching 15 tons after full - production. The annual output is expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, with 6 people reported dead, and operations in the accident area were suspended for investigation [2]. Market Supply and Demand - **Supply Side**: The production (import) volume of copper concentrates in China in August is expected to increase month - on - month. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative and has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at Chinese ports has decreased compared to last week. The export restriction of high - quality scrap steel in Europe has limited Chinese importers to purchasing copper rice or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to low direct imports of US scrap copper and indirect supply through countries like Japan, South Korea, and Thailand. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap steel has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window and potentially reducing the production (import) volume of domestic scrap copper in August. Some copper smelters have suspended production, such as Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines with a capacity of 200,000 tons, Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuneb copper smelter in Namibia (annual processing capacity of 240,000 tons of copper concentrates), and Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile with a capacity of 350,000 tons. The Congo's moa - Kakula copper smelter is expected to be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons. Liangshan Mining's 150,000 - ton copper reform project is in the pre - work stage, and the second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou Non - ferrous Recycling Copper Resource Recycling Base produced anode copper at the beginning of the month. The weekly processing fee for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) month - on - month, and the capacity of crude copper smelter maintenance in China in August may decrease month - on - month, potentially increasing the production (import) volume of domestic crude copper in August [2]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional consumption off - season in China has suppressed downstream demand [2].

宏观扰动增大 有色金属整体保持震荡 有色金属基础周报 2025-08-04 主要品种观点综述 | | | 美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，创4个月新高，美联储7月如期维持利率不变，但美联储内部现30年未见的立场分歧，鲍威尔重申谨慎立场， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强调"尚未就9月会议做出决定，将依据未来数据谨慎决策"，进一步降温9月降息的预期；但ADP就业人数出炉，较前值及预期大幅下滑，美国 | | | | 高位震荡 | 经济可能在更大范围内走弱，因此市场则对9月降息报乐观态势。美国宣布只对铜材等半成品加关税，不涉及阴极铜和废铜等原料，纽约铜深跌。 | 区间交易 | | 铜 | 77000-79000 | 沪伦铜跟随走弱。国内行业反内卷与稳增长政策效应持续释放，铜供应端地震等扰动因素不断，低库存亦为铜价提供高位支撑，但当前铜产业仍 | 或观望 | | | | 处于淡季，铜材加工产能利用率走弱，下游采购需求难有明显增加。同时，美铜进口关税明晰后，海外市场库存回升明显，国内库存或面临回流 | | | | | 压力。8月初是国内外宏观数据密集公布时间，铜价宏观影 ...

Group 1 - The company announced a share repurchase plan with a total expected amount between RMB 100 million and RMB 200 million, effective from November 19, 2024, to November 18, 2025 [1][2] - The repurchased shares will be used for the conversion of the company's convertible bonds [1][2] - As of July 31, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 15,213,960 shares, accounting for 0.95% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately RMB 99.57 million [2][3] Group 2 - The maximum repurchase price was adjusted from RMB 8.61 per share to RMB 8.50 per share starting June 13, 2025, affecting the estimated number of shares to be repurchased [2] - The highest transaction price during the repurchase was RMB 7.97 per share, while the lowest was RMB 5.20 per share [2][3] - The company will continue to make repurchase decisions based on market conditions and will fulfill its information disclosure obligations regarding the progress of the share repurchase [3]

智通财经8月1日电，证监会同意上海友升铝业股份有限公司首次公开发行股票并在沪市主板上市的注册 申请。 ...

Core Insights - The company announced that in the second quarter of 2025, it signed 5 new project contracts with a total value of 393 million yuan [1] - The company has 34 ongoing project contracts with a total value of 34.937 billion yuan [1] - There are 2 signed but not yet effective project contracts amounting to 1.1018 billion yuan [1] - The company has 2 projects that have been bid but not yet signed, totaling 13.3 million yuan [1] Project Highlights - The major project, the Indonesia Oman Copper Smelting Plant, has a contract value of 6.561 billion yuan and has achieved 99.61% of its engineering progress [1] - The Indonesia Oman Copper Concentrator Expansion Project has a contract value of 3.075 billion yuan, with 71.83% of its engineering progress completed [1] - The Vietnam Duong Electric Aluminum Project has a contract value of 4.196 billion yuan, with design, procurement, and on-site construction preparations proceeding in an orderly manner [1]