Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating and Core View - The overall view of the non-ferrous metals industry is that the breakdown of the US dollar index provides a boost to base metals. In the short and medium term, high inventories put pressure on prices, but the logic of a weak US dollar and supply disruption concerns remains. In the long term, there are expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to lead to tighter supply - demand conditions. The report suggests paying attention to opportunities for low - absorption and long - position in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. [1] Group 2: Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][6] - **Logic**: In 2026, the Fed may continue to be loose, providing support to copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the processing fees for long - term contracts in 2026 are at a record low, strengthening the expectation of supply contraction in refined copper. Although terminal demand is weak during the off - season and inventory is accumulating, the future supply - demand is expected to be tighter. [6] Alumina - **View**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuate, with a medium - term outlook of oscillation. [2][7] - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. China is still in a strong inventory - building trend. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase. [7] Aluminum - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level, with a short - term outlook of being volatile and bullish, and a medium - term outlook of the price center rising. [2][9] - **Logic**: The macro - environment is positive, with expectations of US interest rate cuts and the implementation of China's "Two New" policies. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, but there are supply constraints overseas. High aluminum prices suppress demand in the short term, but overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. [10] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at a high level, with a short - and medium - term outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][11] - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has increased, but there may be supply constraints from policies. Demand is mainly for rigid needs in the short term, and the "old - for - new" policy for cars is expected to support demand in the medium term. [11] Zinc - **View**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector has improved, and zinc prices have stabilized and rebounded, with an overall outlook of oscillation. [2][12] - **Logic**: Although US economic data has pushed up the US dollar, the expectation of a weak US dollar remains. Zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and refinery profits are declining. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, but zinc exports are expected to continue, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has room to decline. In the long term, zinc supply is expected to increase while demand growth is limited. [13] Lead - **View**: Social inventory is accumulating, but the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is good, and lead prices fluctuate, with an outlook of oscillation. [2][17] - **Logic**: The spot premium has decreased, and the production of lead ingots has increased slightly. The demand for electric bicycles is weak, but the demand for automotive batteries is improving. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is still at a relatively high level compared to previous years. [17] Nickel - **View**: Policy expectations compete with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][18] - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and demand is in the traditional off - season, with an overall oversupply in the fundamentals. Indonesia's potential policy changes regarding nickel ore pricing and quotas have adjusted market expectations, and continuous follow - up is needed. [19] Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][20] - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. Terminal demand is cautious, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the off - season. [21] Tin - **View**: Supply - demand tension continues, and tin prices are bullish, with an outlook of being volatile and bullish. [2][21] - **Logic**: Supply issues are the key factors. Although the supply situation in Wa State may improve, short - term supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the landslide in Congo (Kinshasa) has increased supply concerns. On the demand side, the global economy is expected to improve, and the demand for tin in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing. [22] Group 3: Market Index Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2503.03, up 1.13%; the commodity 20 index is 2879.55, up 1.44%; the industrial product index is 2369.84, up 0.40%. [148] - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On January 26, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index is 2830.27, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a 5 - day increase of 1.31%, a 1 - month increase of 7.62%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.37%. [150]

产业期现日报 厅 广发期货 投资次拍业名资格:证监许可 【2011】1202号 2026年1月27日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 420300 | 403250 | 17050 | 4.23% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | -100 | 0 | -100 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 420800 | 403750 | 17050 | 4.22% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -245.00 | -189.00 | -56.00 | -29.63% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | 进口盈亏 | -6632.02 | -7675.70 | 1043.68 | 13.60% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.98 | 7.96 | - | - | | | 月间价差 ...

证券日报网讯 1月26日，云南铜业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月20日，公司股东 人数为210385户。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

证券日报网讯 1月26日，白银有色（601212）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，根据《2025年半年度 报告》，2025年1月-6月公司营业总收入445.59亿元，白银营业收入20.23亿元，占营业总收入比重 4.54%，占比较低，敬请投资者注意投资风险。 ...

证券日报网讯 1月26日，白银有色（601212）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将继续加强生产 组织与精细化管理，着力挖潜增效，加大力度控制成本费用，不断提升业绩水平。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is projected to incur significant losses in 2025, with a net profit forecast ranging from -450 million to -675 million yuan compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - For the period of January to September 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 72.643 billion yuan and a total profit of 983 million yuan, but reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of -21.5 million yuan [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company recorded an operating revenue of 44.559 billion yuan, with silver product sales generating 2.023 billion yuan, accounting for 4.54% of total operating revenue [1]

格隆汇1月26日｜白银有色公告，2025年1-9月，公司实现营业收入726.43亿元，利润总额9.83亿元，归 属于上市公司股东的净利润-2.15亿元。经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有 者的净利润-45,000万元到-67,500万元，与上年同期相比，将出现亏损。公司白银产品的收入占总营业 收入的比重较低。2025年上半年，公司营业收入445.59亿元，销售白银产品收入20.23亿元，占公司营业 收入的比重为4.54%。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% closing at 4132.61 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.85% at 14316.64 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.91% at 3319.15 points [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 32.81 billion, an increase of 1.627 billion compared to the previous trading day [3] Market Dynamics - Despite the Shanghai Composite Index showing a drop of over 1.5% at one point, the selling pressure remained strong, particularly during key time intervals [4] - The CSI 300 played a significant role in suppressing the market, leading to a net outflow of 121.3 billion from the market, indicating a broad sell-off [4] - Approximately 3600 stocks declined while around 1550 stocks rose, with an average decline of about 1.20% across the market [4] Sector Performance - Financial stocks, which were previously affected by the CSI 300 ETF selling pressure, showed strong performance today, with net inflows of 3.9 billion into the securities sector, 2.2 billion into the banking sector, and 0.167 billion into the insurance sector [5] - The petrochemical and coal industries also saw net inflows, indicating a shift in capital towards these sectors [5] Market Sentiment and Regulatory Environment - The pharmaceutical sector showed signs of stabilization after previous adjustments, reflecting a rotation in market sentiment [6] - The market is experiencing a cooling trend, with regulatory signals indicating a crackdown on speculative trading in certain sectors, including commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications [6][7] - The China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association has introduced benchmark standards for public funds, which is expected to guide capital back to blue-chip stocks and curb speculative trading in low-quality stocks [7] Conclusion - The market is currently characterized by a "hot potato" trading environment, where speculative stocks lack substantial support and are vulnerable to sudden sell-offs [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is rising at a high level, with overseas geopolitical risks rapidly increasing. The macro - environment has both supporting and restrictive factors for non - ferrous metals prices. Different metals have different trends and influencing factors, with some showing high - level shocks, some adjusting, and some continuing to rise [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summaries Copper - **Trend Status**: High - level shock in the range of 98,500 - 105,000 [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Supported by strong macro - factors such as China's GDP growth in 2025, loose monetary policy in 2026, and a 40% increase in power grid investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan", as well as overseas geopolitical risks, a weak US dollar, and strong precious metals. However, the fundamentals are weak, with falling ore processing fees, increasing smelting losses, and low consumption due to the off - season and high copper prices. Social inventory has increased to 335,200 tons, and spot transactions are light. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level with limited upside potential. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to inventory changes and policy implementation progress [2]. Aluminum - **Trend Status**: High - level adjustment [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory has also risen. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. New production capacity is being put into operation. The downstream processing industry's start - up rate has increased slightly, but overall demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum ingot inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation speed has slowed down. Aluminum prices are affected by capital sentiment and are expected to remain in high - level shock in the short term [2]. Zinc - **Trend Status**: Stabilize and rebound, high - level shock [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are at a low level, and production may shrink in January due to some smelter maintenance. Consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc ingots is low. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China is 119,000 tons, remaining basically unchanged from last week. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will maintain high - level shock [2]. Lead - **Trend Status**: Range shock between 16,800 - 17,200 [2]. - **Market Viewpoint**: LME and COMEX lead inventories have increased, while Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventories have decreased. Lead prices have fallen, and downstream transactions have weakened, putting pressure on futures prices. In the long term, lead prices may show a shock - consolidation trend, and it is recommended to operate within the range [2]. Nickel - **Trend Status**: High - level shock [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Affected by news from Indonesia, nickel prices are strong, but the spot inventory is accumulating, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the upward momentum of nickel prices is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for both nickel and stainless steel [3]. Tin - **Trend Status**: Return to an upward trend [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Supply remains tight, and prices are strongly fluctuating. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and downstream demand is in rigid need. Overseas raw material supply disturbances need to be noted. It is expected that tin prices will continue to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Trend Status**: Wide - range shock [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Production and inventory of industrial silicon have changed. The production of polysilicon has decreased, and the photovoltaic industry has mixed trends. If a large - scale industrial silicon producer in Xinjiang cuts production by half, it will drive up industrial silicon prices. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at the current position [3]. Carbonate Lithium - **Trend Status**: Return to an upward trend [3]. - **Market Viewpoint**: Affected by mining permit disturbances in Yichun, supply - side risks exist. Downstream demand for exports is strong, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected that prices will continue to show a strong shock [3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Data China - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, with a 4.5% increase in the fourth quarter. The real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the LPR remained unchanged in January 2026 [13][15][16][18]. USA - The average weekly new employment in the US ADP was 8,000, lower than the previous value of 11,750. The PCE price index in November 2025 met expectations, and the real GDP quarterly growth rate in the third quarter was revised up to 4.4%, the fastest in two years [19][21][22]. 3.3 Next Week's Macroeconomic Data Calendar - A series of economic data from the US and the Eurozone are scheduled to be released next week, including the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, consumer confidence indexes, and inflation - related data [24].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 唐文豪（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03152608 日期：2026年1月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据 | | | 本周收盘价 | 周涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 429,570 | 6.00% | 447,140 | 6.56% | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 19,920 | 2.65% | - | - | | | | 本周五成交 | 较上周五变动 | 本周五持仓 | 较上周五变动 | | 期 货 | 沪锡主力合约 | 378,618 | -50,639 | 56,254 | 24,966 | | | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 383 | -83 | 14,318 | -39 | | | | 本周库存 | 较上周变动 | ...