Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that despite policy tightening pressures in the first half of 2025, the U.S. stock market is expected to enter a more optimistic scenario in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The firm does not foresee a recession but anticipates seven interest rate cuts in 2026, which will support above-average valuations [1] - The S&P 500 index target price is set at 6,500 points for the next 12 months, corresponding to an earnings per share (EPS) of $302 and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.5 times [1] - Projected EPS for 2025 is $259 (7% growth), for 2026 is $283 (9% growth), and for 2027 is $321 (13% growth) [1] Industry Allocation - **Overweight Sectors**: Financials, Energy, and Utilities are rated as overweight. The financial sector is expected to see a recovery in M&A and capital market transactions by 2028, with potential for accelerated stock buybacks due to regulatory easing [3] - The energy sector is linked to oil price movements, with geopolitical tensions potentially disrupting supply and raising prices. The sector's free cash flow (FCF) margins are significantly above historical averages [3] - Utilities historically perform well in late-cycle phases due to their defensive characteristics and are expected to benefit from rising interest rates and energy capacity concerns [3] Neutral Sectors - Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Real Estate, and Industrials are maintained at neutral. The technology sector shows significant internal differentiation, with AI-related stocks performing well, while hardware faces challenges from weak consumer demand [4] Underweight Sectors - Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples are rated for reduction due to poor pricing power and tariff risks. The consumer products sector faces significant cost pressures, with tariffs impacting EBITDA margins by 10% to 70% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a mixed performance in May, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9%, the Shenzhen Component increasing by 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.32%. Various brokerages have released their investment recommendations for June, focusing on sectors such as consumption, energy, technology, and finance [1]. Group 1: Recommended Stocks - Multiple brokerages have recommended stocks across various sectors, including: - Guotai Junan: Microchip Biotech, Xiechuang Data, Lihigh Food, Huhua Electric, Tianzhun Technology [2] - Caifeng Securities: Huayang International, Ruipu Biotech, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [2] - Other notable mentions include Qingdao Beer, Juhua Co., and Top Group, with several stocks receiving multiple recommendations [2][4]. Group 2: Most Frequently Recommended Stocks - The stocks receiving the most recommendations from brokerages include: - Yaji International and Qingdao Beer, each recommended by three brokerages [4]. - Dongpeng Beverage, Wanma Technology, Juhua Co., and Huhua Electric, each recommended by two brokerages [4]. - Wanma Technology saw the highest increase in May, rising over 13% to a closing price of 38.33 yuan [4]. Group 3: Preferred Sectors - Brokerages suggest focusing on sectors likely to experience upward movement, including technology, consumer goods, and large financials, as well as petrochemical, chemical, and non-ferrous cyclical sectors [6]. - China Bank Securities emphasizes three main investment lines: consumption, technology, and dividends, highlighting the growth potential in the technology sector supported by policy and industry development [6][7]. - ZheShang Securities recommends shifting focus from high-performing technology sectors to underperforming large financials and dividend stocks to manage portfolio risk [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Donghai Securities outlines three main strategies for June: 1. Long-term focus on domestic demand and technology [7]. 2. Short-term emphasis on consumption over investment, particularly in sectors benefiting from fiscal stimulus and urban renewal [7]. 3. Balanced allocation strategy, suggesting to buy undervalued sectors like petrochemical, chemical, and non-ferrous metals [8].

致同香港咨询主管合伙人汤飈表示，香港上市公司的交易量于今年首季下滑，预示今年商业活动前景可 能转趋审慎。在地缘政治风险及特朗普政府关税政策引发的全球市场不确定性影响下，香港上市公司对 投资采取更为保守的策略。许多企业正通过剥离非核心业务来确保核心运营资金充裕，以期在日益波动 的市场环境中充分应对行业挑战，同时尽量降低全球风险敞口。 他指出，展望2025年，反垄断与数据私隐审查趋严，叠加美国关税政策及地缘政治不稳定因素，预计将 导致尽职调查流程更趋复杂、审核周期延长、交易估值波动加剧，并抑制跨境交易活动。因此该行预计 2025年全年企业买卖交易宗数可能较去年录得单位数跌幅。不过，若年中迎来利率下调，将改善市场流 动性并降低融资成本，为下半年交易市场带来利好，或可提振下半年交易动能。 智通财经APP获悉，致同(香港)会计师事务所最新发表《买卖协议研究报告2025》显示，香港上市公司 的买卖协议活动在2025年初显现放缓迹象，首季交易量从2024年同期的67宗下降约24%至51宗。致同预 期，2025年全年企业交易宗数或录得单位数跌幅，反映市场观望情绪持续升温。 报告显示，2024年香港上市公司的买卖协议宗数较20 ...

Global Economic Outlook - Citigroup economists predict that global economic growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, with the full effects expected to manifest in the second half of this year [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that inflation caused by tariffs will likely not persist for long, as the U.S. economy is entering a weaker state compared to the inflationary periods of 2021 and 2022 [1] - John Hardy from Saxo Bank warns that the U.S. Treasury should monitor risks in the Japanese government bond market, as Japan's debt situation is becoming more severe [1] Japanese Yen and Bond Market - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that the depreciation of the yen may still have room to continue, despite recent declines in long-term Japanese government bond yields [2] - Analysts from Bank of America indicate that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to address the supply-demand imbalance in the long-term bond market, continuing to reduce bond purchases until March 2026 [3] - State Street Global Advisors describes the challenges in the Japanese bond market as "technical" rather than "structural," suggesting that these issues can be resolved through adjustments in issuance [4] Chinese Aviation and Energy Sector - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reports that the significant drop in oil prices this year is expected to improve the cost structure for airlines, with a solid foundation for the aviation cycle to start [5] - CICC also highlights opportunities in the diesel generator sets and large-bore engines used in data centers, driven by high demand for AI infrastructure [6] Consumer Goods and Pet Industry - Huatai Securities emphasizes the potential for recovery in the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, as consumption trends improve [7] - Huaxi Securities projects that China's pet industry could reach a market size of 478.7 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% from 2024 to 2030 [8] Investment Strategies in Materials and Energy - CITIC Securities outlines three investment themes in the materials sector, focusing on policy-driven themes, high certainty growth from industry prosperity, and innovation in products and technologies [9] - The same report suggests that the second half of 2025 will see a complex price trend in commodities due to U.S. tariff policies, recommending a focus on "hedging" and "supply disruptions" [10] Economic Projections - CITIC Securities anticipates a potential bull market for Chinese equity assets starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by synchronized economic and policy cycles across major economies [11] - The firm also predicts that the economic landscape will exhibit characteristics of strong production, recovering investment, stable consumption, and resilient exports [12]

Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is attributed to two main factors: the depreciation of the USD and the implementation of proactive domestic macroeconomic policies [3] - The USD index has shown a downward trend this year, dropping over 8% from a high of 109 to below 100 [3] - Future RMB exchange rate movements are expected to be influenced by the progress of China-US trade talks and the USD exchange rate [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the appreciation of the RMB will benefit the Chinese stock market, with an expected improvement in corporate earnings and increased foreign capital inflow [4] - The report estimates that the RMB/USD exchange rate could reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 in the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, indicating a potential 3% appreciation over the next year [4] - Other foreign institutions, such as UBS, also express optimism about the Chinese stock market, noting that the MSCI China Index is undervalued compared to historical averages [5]

Summary of Key Points Core Insights - In April 2025, China's primary market saw 632 financing events, a 4% increase from the previous month but a 26% decrease year-on-year. The total disclosed financing amount reached 27.045 billion RMB, up 34% month-on-month but down 20% year-on-year [2][3]. Financing Events - The top industries for financing events were smart manufacturing (176 events), healthcare (85 events), and artificial intelligence (79 events), with smart manufacturing showing a significant month-on-month increase of 21% [2][5]. - The leading regions for financing events included Jiangsu (106 events), Guangdong (94 events), Shanghai (88 events), Zhejiang (80 events), and Beijing (75 events) [11][13]. - The distribution of financing events by stage showed early-stage investments dominating with 497 events (78.64%), followed by growth stage with 107 events (16.93%) and late stage with 28 events (4.43%) [15]. IPO Activity - In April 2025, 23 Chinese companies completed IPOs, a decrease of 8% from the previous month but an increase of 44% year-on-year. The total amount raised was 10.304 billion RMB, down 43% month-on-month but up 98% year-on-year [29][30]. - The majority of IPOs were in traditional industries (7 companies), followed by consumer (3), smart manufacturing (2), automotive (2), and finance (2) [32]. M&A Activity - There were 15 M&A events in April 2025, a significant decrease of 53% from the previous month and 85% year-on-year. The total disclosed amount was 454 million RMB, down 60% month-on-month and 99% year-on-year [37][38]. - The top industries for M&A events included logistics and warehousing, finance, traditional industries, energy and power, and enterprise services, with finance leading in transaction value at 300 million RMB [38]. Global Financing Trends - Globally, there were 41 new large financing events in April 2025, with China contributing 9 events, accounting for 22% of the total. The disclosed financing amount from China was 13.385 billion RMB, representing 4% of the global total [18]. - No new unicorns were added in China during this month, while globally, 5 new unicorns were reported [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent bullish ratings from brokerages on 30 stocks, with Mingyang Smart Energy leading the list due to a target price increase of 39.88% [1][3] - The sectors with the most stocks rated include capital goods, materials, and technology hardware, indicating a focus on policy-supported areas, particularly high-end manufacturing and green energy [3][4] - Mingyang Smart Energy's strong performance is attributed to a significant increase in wind turbine exports, a recovery in profit margins, and a low valuation compared to peers [4][5] Group 2 - Other notable stocks include Dian Diagnostics, which benefits from aging demographics and precision medicine policies, and Anhui Heli, which has a strong export market and expected margin improvements [5][6] - The article suggests a strategic approach to investing, recommending gradual accumulation of stocks like Mingyang Smart Energy if it surpasses certain price levels, while also monitoring policy developments that could impact the sectors [6][7] - The current market phase is characterized by a transition from policy support to performance-driven outcomes, emphasizing the importance of companies with real orders and healthy cash flows [7]

Group 1 - The 7th China Western International Investment and Trade Fair (West Expo) opened in Chongqing, featuring 124 major project signings with a total investment amount exceeding 200 billion RMB [1] - The West Expo is one of the most influential investment events in Western China, attracting over 1,300 enterprises and institutions from 39 countries and regions, with Thailand as the guest country and Hong Kong as a newly established guest city [1] - The signed projects aim to gather global quality resources and promote the implementation of leading projects in the western region, with nearly 160 billion RMB in contracts for key industries such as intelligent connected new energy vehicles and advanced materials [1] Group 2 - The West Expo consists of two main parts: exhibition displays and thematic activities, covering an exhibition area of 110,000 square meters [2] - A total of 34 activities will be held during the conference, including themes on productive services supporting modern industrial development and foreign investment activities [2]

Group 1: Market Trends - After the tariff announcement on April 2, the US stock market quickly priced in a recessionary regime, eliminating the possibility of a "Goldilocks" (moderate growth) scenario. This trend has since reversed, with the probability of the Goldilocks regime returning to March's average level [1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMIs) continues to decline, while OECD leading indicators show the economy remains in a late cycle but has not yet exited the expansion phase. The REVS regime favors late-cycle defensive sectors like communication services, but as leading indicators weaken, preferences may shift more towards utilities [2] Group 2: Earnings Adjustments - Almost all sectors have seen downward revisions in sales and earnings expectations, but the pace of these adjustments has slowed. The sectors with the largest downward revisions include automotive, durable goods, and building materials. The dispersion in earnings scores indicates the presence of alpha opportunities in the market [3] Group 3: Valuation Insights - Forward price-to-earnings ratios have mostly rebounded, returning to a "growth optimism" range. The US stock market's valuation remains higher than other global regions, with dollar-denominated earnings outperforming Europe by 10%, exceeding long-term trends [4] Group 4: Sentiment Analysis - Utilities and consumer staples sectors maintain positive sentiment. UBS crowding data indicates a persistent overweight position in the US market, although it has decreased from March's peak. The significant rotation from cyclical consumer stocks (durable goods and automotive) to defensive sectors (like consumer staples) has not fully normalized [5] Group 5: Top and Bottom Rated Stocks - The highest-rated stocks based on the REVS framework include Intercontinental Exchange, Virtu Financial, and Broadcom, with price changes since March 31 ranging from 10.9% to 37.3% [6] - The lowest-rated stocks include Ziprecruiter, Bioxcel Therapeutics, and Jetblue Airways, with price changes since March 31 ranging from 0% to 3.6% [7]

Core Viewpoints - The article summarizes the insights from fund managers based on their Q1 2025 reports, focusing on their investment strategies and market outlooks [1]. Group 1: Fund Manager Perspectives - Fund managers typically cover two main areas in their reports: a review of past investments and future market outlooks, with the latter being more significant [3]. - Different fund managers exhibit varying levels of detail in their reports, influenced by their investment styles, such as value or growth [3]. - The deep value style emphasizes low valuations and high dividend yields, primarily investing in sectors like finance, real estate, and energy [4][5]. - Growth value style focuses on companies with strong profitability and cash flow, often holding stocks for the long term [10]. Group 2: Deep Value Style Insights - Deep value style has shown strong performance from 2021 to 2024, while it underperformed in 2019-2020 [6]. - Fund managers express confidence in their holdings despite market uncertainties, citing factors like geopolitical changes and technological advancements as influential [7]. - The current market environment is characterized by structural changes, with some sectors facing prolonged competition, while others show clear competitive advantages [7]. Group 3: Growth Value Style Insights - Growth value managers highlight the resilience of high-frequency economic data and improved financing conditions, suggesting a positive outlook for the second quarter [12]. - They emphasize the importance of focusing on domestic economic transformation and internal demand rather than external pressures [12][13]. - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios to capitalize on sectors like AI and healthcare, anticipating a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [15][16]. Group 4: Balanced Style Insights - The balanced style seeks to combine growth potential with valuation, often looking for stocks that offer good value relative to their growth prospects [26]. - Fund managers maintain a diversified approach, focusing on sectors with favorable valuations and growth potential, such as healthcare and technology [29][30]. - They express optimism about domestic consumption policies and liquidity, which may support market performance despite external uncertainties [30]. Group 5: Growth Style Insights - The growth style prioritizes companies with high revenue and profit growth, often accepting higher valuations for strong growth potential [39][40]. - Fund managers are actively seeking opportunities in emerging industries, such as renewable energy and technology, which are expected to drive future growth [41].