Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis for 4129/29B/3.5 impurity in Northern Xinjiang's machine-picked cotton in 2024/25 was mostly at CF09+1400 - 1500 and above, with a small amount below this price. The basis quotation for machine-picked Grade 31 double-29 cotton in Kashgar, Southern Xinjiang was mostly at CF09+1100 and above, and the low-price quotation was still at CF09+950 - 1100, but the quantity at low prices decreased significantly, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7] - The overall market of pure cotton yarn changed little this week. Spinning mills mostly maintained last week's quotations, and actual transactions gradually followed up. Downstream procurement volume remained low, mainly for rigid demand. The market lacked confidence in the future market, and inland spinning mills continued to limit production. The market for all-cotton grey cloth has been continuously sluggish recently, with light shipments. Weaving factories produced spot goods, with low production and sales rates and accumulated finished product inventories. Currently, weaving factories have few orders, mainly small and scattered orders, and the current machine startup rate of weaving factories remains low [7] - As of July 13, in the international market, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton-growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year; and the good-to-excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The overall growth progress was slightly slower, but the good-to-excellent rate continued to rise, and there was still room for an increase in production. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year-on-year this year, and the expectation of an overall bumper harvest still exists. The industrial downstream remained weak, with overall weak demand. The cotton yarn inventory of downstream spinning mills continued to rise, and inland spinning mills continued to reduce the startup rate, but the startup rate of Xinjiang spinning mills remained firm, with a small decline. In the short term, there were still concerns about the tight supply of old crops, but considering the current off-season consumption stage, tariff disturbances still existed, and the weather had not yet had an impact, so the upside space should be viewed with caution [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, the exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 12.048 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 15.267 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were 143.978 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [9] - As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 54%, compared with 52% in the previous week and 45% in the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, compared with 14% in the previous week, 26% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 22%; the budding rate was 61%, compared with 48% in the previous week, 62% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 62% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt total, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][26]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton market has a complex situation with both supply - demand and external factor impacts [7] - Macroscopically, there are tariff disturbances as Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU on August 1st. The USDA July monthly supply - demand report shows a slight adjustment in the global cotton market, with total production up 310,000 tons to 25.78 million tons and total consumption up 80,000 tons to 25.72 million tons, and a slight accumulation of ending stocks. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but the downstream industry is weak, and short - term concerns about tight old - crop supplies remain. However, considering the consumption off - season, tariff disturbances, and lack of weather - related impacts, the upside potential should be viewed with caution [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. The cotton sales basis is different in different regions. The pure - cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with a decline in downstream operating rates, stable yarn prices, and a slight increase in inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market remains weak, and the market outlook for July and August is generally pessimistic [7] - **Analysis of Market Influencing Factors**: Tariff disturbances exist. The USDA report shows minor adjustments in the global cotton market. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but the downstream is weak. Short - term concerns about tight old - crop supplies remain, but the upside potential is limited due to the off - season, tariff issues, and lack of weather impacts [8] 3.2 Industry News - The agricultural rural department's prediction of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. Most cotton in China is in the budding to flowering stage, with a development period 4 - 7 days earlier than usual. There is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in Xinjiang in July. The cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in the off - season, and spinning mills are cautious in raw material procurement [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the cotton market, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, inventory data, and exchange rate data, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][16]

Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The global sugar supply tends to be loose, pressuring the raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply is marginally loose, and the price is expected to be bearish after a rebound, with attention paid to the pressure around 5800 - 5900 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5632 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; the price of sugar 2509 is 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.56 cents/pound, up 1.85%. The main contract open interest increased by 4.46% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price is 6060 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the Kunming spot price is 5905 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The Nanning basis is 250 yuan/ton, up 2.04%; the Kunming basis is 95 yuan/ton, up 26.67% [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year-on-year; the national cumulative sugar sales is 811.38 million tons, up 23.07% year-on-year [1]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate strongly within a stable range, but will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 is 13820 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The main contract open interest increased by 0.80% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the CC Index: 3128B is 15266 yuan/ton, up 0.46% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5% month - on - month; the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 33.3% month - on - month [4]. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price is expected to rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited and it is still under pressure at high levels [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3580 yuan/500KG, up 0.06%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3442 yuan/500KG, down 0.12% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 2.51 yuan/jin, up 1.39% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The in - lay hen inventory remains high, but the egg production rate and egg weight have declined due to high temperatures. The demand is expected to increase [8]. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The palm oil price may fall and adjust; the soybean oil price will maintain high production, and the spot basis quotation is under pressure [10]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of Y2509 is 7986, up 0.53%; the price of P2509 is 8682, up 0.51% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu first - class soybean oil is 8240, up 0.86%; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8800, up 1.50% [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic palm oil inventory and soybean oil inventory situation are given, and the influence of production and inventory on prices is analyzed [10]. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The meal market is under pressure, the domestic soybean and meal inventory is rising, and the meal price is currently in the process of bottom - grinding [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of M2509 is 2976, up 0.74%; the price of RM2509 is 2633, up 0.84% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2830, up 1.07%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2530, up 0.80% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The US soybean production, export, and inventory are affected by weather and tariffs. The domestic soybean and meal inventory and supply and demand situation are also analyzed [11]. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term corn market sentiment is weak, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2509 is 2306 yuan/ton, down 0.60%. The main contract open interest increased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price remains unchanged; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2430 yuan/ton, down 0.41% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The import corn auction situation, downstream demand, and substitution situation are analyzed [13]. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The pig price is under pressure in the short term, but there is no basis for a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14500 on the 09 contract [18]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract is 13645 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the price of the 2509 contract is 14345 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The main contract open interest decreased by 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The pig spot price fluctuates, with prices in various regions showing different degrees of decline [17]. - **Industry Situation**: The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, the market demand is weak, and the production capacity expansion is cautious [17][18].

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The cotton market is experiencing a period of oscillatory adjustment due to a lack of strong short - term drivers. Both the international and domestic cotton markets face uncertainties from factors such as tariffs, weather, and market demand. The domestic cotton market has a high expectation of a bumper harvest this year, but concerns about tight ending stocks of old crops remain. The downstream industry continues to operate weakly, with low demand and increasing inventory [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton futures are oscillating. The latest price index of 328 - grade cotton is 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with a decline in the downstream operating rate and a slight increase in inventory. The cotton fabric market remains weak, with inventory backlogs and a pessimistic outlook for July and August [7] - **Market Analysis**: Macroscopically, tariff disruptions still exist. Internationally, the good growth of U.S. cotton and the upcoming July supply - demand report will affect the market. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but concerns about tight old - crop ending stocks remain. The downstream industry is weak, with low demand and increasing inventory. In the short term, the market will oscillate and adjust [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Tariff Policy**: Trump postponed the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1 and mentioned possible tariff increases on multiple countries. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the tariff revenue could reach 30 billion by the end of the year [9] - **Cotton Harvest**: As of the week ending July 5, the total cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 7.3%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous week but 5% slower than the same period last year [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, inventory data, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][12][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: Domestic policies focus on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution measures, which may boost the new energy growth sector in the short term. The market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but may suppress trade - dependent sectors in the long run. Stock index futures are expected to show an upward trend in the medium term but are subject to policy implementation and external risks [2]. - **Crude Oil**: The low dollar index supports oil prices, but factors like reduced July rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase may keep prices oscillating in the short term. WTI is expected to rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. - **Gold**: Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data have cooled expectations of an early Fed rate cut. Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows. If gold fails to return above $3300 per ounce, it may test June lows [4][6]. - **Silver**: Strong US employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns have influenced the market. The supply - demand gap in 2025 is expected, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention should be paid to the $36.5 per ounce support level [7]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, and supply pressure is increasing. Demand is sluggish, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is in a tight supply - demand balance with emerging inventory pressure. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $4200 per ton support level [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals have not improved significantly, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [10][11]. - **PP**: With no obvious fundamental drivers, prices will follow market sentiment in the short term [12][13]. - **Plastic**: The fundamentals show no significant improvement, and prices will fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The market has limited new drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range in the short term [15]. - **Glass**: Market fundamentals have limited drivers, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [16]. - **Rubber**: The supply is abundant due to good weather in major producing areas. The demand from the tire industry is weak. The market will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the downstream start - up rate [17][18]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a weak supply - demand balance. Port inventory accumulation and weak demand may suppress price increases. Prices will oscillate in a range in the short term [19]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn**: The USDA report has limited positive impact. The domestic market is in a transition period, and prices are oscillating downward due to factors like wheat substitution. The futures price may test the $2300 per ton support level [20][21]. - **Peanut**: The expected increase in planting area may pressure far - month prices. The current market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and prices will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Cotton**: The US production forecast is revised downward, and the domestic supply is expected to be abundant. The price will oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $14000 per ton pressure level [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance leads to high uncertainty in the market. Terminal consumption needs continuous attention [24]. - **Egg**: Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Prices will oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are the main drivers. Supply pressure is high, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, and prices may oscillate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Metals**: - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonal factors pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, while conservative investors should wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, and the 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. The 2511 contract will oscillate in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, and prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure in the long term [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the $40,000 per ton pressure level [35]. - **Black Metals**: - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices will oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. A short - term long - bias strategy can be adopted [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. The main contract will oscillate in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, and the coke main contract may be strong. Attention should be paid to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Policy focuses on mid - stream manufacturing and anti - involution, which may boost new energy stocks. Market expects pro - growth policies from the July Politburo meeting. Trump's tariff delay eases short - term pressure but affects trade - dependent sectors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in the medium term but are subject to risks [2]. Crude Oil - Low dollar index supports prices, but reduced rate - cut expectations and potential OPEC+ production increase limit upward movement. WTI may rebound around $65 per barrel [3]. Gold - Trump's tariff policies and strong employment data cool rate - cut expectations. Gold ETFs have large inflows. Gold price may test June lows if it fails to return above $3300 per ounce [4][6]. Silver - Strong employment data and tariff - related inflation concerns affect the market. Supply - demand gap in 2025, but weak industrial demand and high inventories limit price increases. Attention to $36.5 per ounce support [7]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Cost support is weak, supply increases, and demand is sluggish [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Tight supply - demand balance with inventory pressure. Weak in the short term, attention to $4200 per ton support [9]. - **PVC**: Fundamentals unchanged, prices follow market sentiment [10][11]. - **PP**: No fundamental drivers, prices follow market sentiment [12][13]. - **Plastic**: No improvement in fundamentals, prices follow market sentiment [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Limited new drivers, prices oscillate in the bottom range [15]. - **Glass**: Limited drivers, prices oscillate widely [16]. Rubber - Supply is abundant due to good weather, demand from the tire industry is weak. Market oscillates, attention to downstream start - up rate [17][18]. Methanol - Supply - demand balance is weak. Port inventory and weak demand suppress prices. Prices oscillate in a range [19]. Agricultural Products - **Corn**: USDA report has limited impact. Domestic market in transition, prices down due to substitution. Futures may test $2300 per ton support [20][21]. - **Peanut**: Expected increase in planting area pressures far - month prices. Current supply - demand is weak, prices oscillate [22]. - **Cotton**: US production forecast revised down, domestic supply abundant. Prices oscillate, attention to $14000 per ton pressure [23]. - **Pig**: Supply - demand imbalance, high uncertainty, attention to terminal consumption [24]. - **Egg**: Supply sufficient, demand weak. Prices oscillate at a low level, attention to farmers' culling intentions [25][26]. - **Soybean Meal**: Tariffs and weather are drivers. Supply pressure is high, prices may oscillate weakly [27]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention to US weather and MPOB report. Supply pressure is large, prices may oscillate weakly [28]. Metals - **Copper**: Trump's tariff threats and domestic policies have complex impacts. Short - term short positions can be considered [29]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff policies and seasonality pressure prices. Aggressive investors can trade in a range, conservative investors wait and see [30]. - **Alumina**: Ore supply issues and low inventory support prices, 2509 contract may be strong [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support and inventory accumulation coexist. 2511 contract oscillates in a range [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Cost support strengthens, demand is weak. Prices may be strong in the short term [33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is high, prices may be strong in the short term but face over - supply pressure [34]. - **Polysilicon**: Market is in a wait - and - see state. Prices may be strong in the short term, attention to $40,000 per ton pressure [35]. Black Metals - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support exists, but supply pressure and weak demand remain. Prices oscillate in a wide range at a low level [36]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro - sentiment improvement and cost support drive prices up. Short - term long - bias strategy [37][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Import cost supports prices, but demand is under pressure. Main contract oscillates in a range [39]. - **Coal**: Coking coal is weakly stable, coke main contract may be strong. Attention to steel mill inventory and policy implementation [40].

1. Operation Suggestions - Entering a new round of US trade policy negotiation window, the index has broken through the upper limit of the short - term oscillation range and the central value continues to rise. Consider buying low - strike put options and selling high - strike put options to implement a bullish spread strategy. The short - term fluctuation range of T2509 may be between 108.8 - 109.2. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. For the curve strategy, continue to recommend steepening [2]. 2. Financial Sector 2.1 Treasury Bonds - With the bottoming out of capital interest rates and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures may show a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is recommended to increase positions on dips, take profit near the previous high, and pay attention to the trend of capital interest rates. The curve strategy still recommends steepening [3]. 2.2 Precious Metals - The market has digested part of the impact of US tariffs. As the US dollar strengthens, gold prices have declined. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate around $3300 (765 yuan). Sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver prices are affected by gold and non - ferrous industrial products and fluctuate repeatedly, oscillating in the range of $36 - 37 in the short term [3]. 2.3 Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC contract has moved up on the disk. Be cautiously bullish on the EC08 main contract [3]. 3. Black Sector 3.1 Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial steel products have deteriorated. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. For arbitrage, consider the strategy of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - The sentiment in the black sector has improved, and anti - involution is beneficial to the valuation increase. Go long on dips, with the fluctuation range referring to 700 - 750 [3]. 3.3 Coking Coal - The auction non - transaction rate in the market has decreased, the expectation of coal mine resumption has strengthened, the spot market is running strongly, trading has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. Go long on dips [3]. 3.4 Coke - The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, and the coking profit has declined, with the price approaching the阶段性 bottom. Go long on dips [3]. 4. Non - Ferrous Sector 4.1 Copper - The logic of LME soft squeeze has weakened. Pay attention to the rhythm of US tariff policies. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80000 [3]. 4.2 Alumina - The spot market has tightened temporarily, and the disk has strongly broken through the 3100 pressure level. The main contract reference range is 2850 - 3150 [3]. 4.3 Aluminum - The spot discount has widened, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The main contract reference range is 19800 - 20800 [3]. 4.4 Aluminum Alloy - The disk fluctuates with aluminum prices, and the fundamentals remain weak in the off - season. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [3]. 4.5 Zinc - Concerns about tariffs have resurfaced, and the demand outlook remains weak. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23000 [3]. 4.6 Tin - There are significant short - term macro disturbances. Pay attention to changes in US tariff policies. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. 4.7 Stainless Steel - There are still macro risks, and the disk has slightly declined. The industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [3]. 4.8 Nickel - The disk has been slightly boosted, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [3]. 5. Energy and Chemical Sector 5.1 Crude Oil - The tariff issue has eased, and positive factors have driven the disk up. It is recommended to take a short - term bullish view. The resistance levels for WTI are [68, 69], for Brent are [70, 71], and for SC are [510, 520] [3]. 5.2 Urea - There is still some order support on the demand side. Pay attention to the progress of export - related news in the future. Enter the market cautiously on dips in the short term. If the actual demand fails to meet expectations, exit the market. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [3]. 5.3 PX - Oil prices are strong, but the supply - demand margin has weakened. The short - term driving force for PX is limited. PX09 will operate in the range of 6500 - 6900 in the short term. Pay attention to the support at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.4 PTA - The supply - demand outlook has weakened, but the cost side is strong. PTA will maintain an oscillation. In the short term, it will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900. Short at the upper end of the range. Implement a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA9 - 1 [3]. 5.5 Short - Fiber - With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing margin has improved. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA. Expand the processing margin at the low level of the PF disk. Pay attention to the pressure around 1100 for the disk processing margin and the implementation of future production cuts [3]. 5.6 Bottle Chip - It is the peak demand season, production cuts of bottle chips have increased, the processing margin has recovered, and PR fluctuates with costs. The processing margin of the PR main disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Look for opportunities to expand at the lower end of the range [3]. 5.7 Ethanol - The supply - demand situation is gradually turning to be loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will face pressure above. Pay attention to the pressure around 4400 for EG09 in the short term. Sell call options at high levels. Implement a reverse spread strategy for EG9 - 1 at high levels [3]. 5.8 Caustic Soda - There has been a macro - stimulated rebound. Pay attention to whether the alumina purchase price will follow. With the strong short - term macro sentiment, it is expected to rebound at low levels, but the momentum depends on the follow - up of the spot market [3]. 5.9 PVC - Driven by the expectation of "supply - side optimization", still pay attention to the anti - dumping duty ruling in July. Be cautiously optimistic about the rebound space of near - month contracts [3]. 5.10 Pure Benzene - The supply - demand margin has improved, but the driving force for near - month contracts is limited due to high inventory. Be cautiously bearish on far - month contracts. Since the first - line contract BZ2603 of pure benzene is far away in time, the driving force is limited under the supply - demand game. Be cautiously bearish or wait and see for unilateral operations. Implement a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [3]. 5.11 Styrene - The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the cost support is limited. Styrene may gradually face pressure. It is recommended to sell call options with a strike price above 7500 for EB08 [3]. 5.12 Synthetic Rubber - Due to an unexpected device incident, butadiene has rebounded, boosting the rise of BR. Pay attention to the pressure around 11500 for BR2508 in the short term [3]. 5.13 LLDPE - Trading has weakened, and prices have slightly declined. It will oscillate in the short term [3]. 5.14 PP - Both supply and demand are weak, and the cost - side support has weakened. Be cautiously bearish. Enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [3]. 5.15 Methanol - The basis has rapidly weakened. Pay attention to Iranian shipments. Conduct range - bound operations between 2200 - 2500 [3]. 6. Agricultural Sector 6.1 Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade with a short - bias on rebounds [3]. 6.2 Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Hold short positions on rallies in the short term [3]. 6.3 Eggs - The spot market remains weak. Be bearish in the long - term [3]. 6.4 Apples - Trading is light, and prices have weakened. The main contract will operate around 7700 [3]. 6.5 Jujubes - Market prices have fluctuated slightly. The main contract will operate around 10500 [3]. 6.6 Peanuts - Market prices have oscillated steadily. The main contract will operate around 8100 [3]. 6.7 Soda Ash - Inventory accumulation continues, and the oversupply pattern is prominent. Adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [3]. 7. Special Commodity Sector 7.1 Glass - The macro atmosphere has warmed up, and the disk has generally performed strongly. Wait and see in the short term [3]. 7.2 Rubber - There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Hold short positions above 14000 [3]. 7.3 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price has rebounded with polysilicon. Wait and see [3]. 8. New Energy Sector 8.1 Polysilicon - The spot quotation of polysilicon has been raised, and multiple futures contracts have reached the daily limit. Wait and see [3]. 8.2 Lithium Carbonate - The disk is running strongly, but there are increasing macro risks and fundamental pressure. The main contract reference range is 60,000 - 65,000 [3]. 9. Stock Index - The market trading sentiment is becoming more optimistic, and the broader market is approaching a new high [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Recently, favorable weather has led to an increase in the good - quality rate of US cotton, limiting its rebound. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and cautious raw material procurement. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang poses a high risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend. However, the slow de - stocking process drags down the price rhythm, so the overall trend is slightly stronger in a range. Attention should be paid to weather and macro factors, and there are tariff - related macro - factor risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengmian main contract closing price: 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,965 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 23,665 hands, down 570 hands; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 72 hands, up 21 hands. Cotton main contract positions: 543,248 hands, down 617 hands; cotton yarn main contract positions: 22,992 hands, down 574 hands. Cotton warehouse receipts: 9,971 sheets, down 68 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 2 sheets, unchanged. China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty): 14,447 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spot Market - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 22,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S): 23,811 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons. Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,227 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; national industrial cotton inventory: 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton import volume: 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. Imported cotton profit: 754 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; national commercial cotton inventory: 3.4587 million tons, down 0.6939 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey cloth inventory days: 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. Cloth output: 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; yarn output: 1.951 million tons, down 0.036 million tons. Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1,357,773,700 US dollars, up 197,117,900 US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1,263,177,300 US dollars, up 5,210,900 US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option: 9.06%, up 0.21%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option: 9.06%, up 0.21%. 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.11%, down 0.84%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 10.08%, down 0.79% [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the boll - setting rate of US cotton was 14% (9% last week, 18% in the same period last year, 15% as the five - year average), the budding rate was 48% (40% last week, 51% in the same period last year, 49% as the five - year average), and the good - quality rate was 52% (51% last week, 45% in the same period last year) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that cotton futures prices are experiencing fluctuations due to improved weather conditions in major production areas and negative trade policy news [1][2] - On July 8, cotton futures opened at 67.89 cents per pound and were reported at 68.00 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.21% increase, with a daily high of 68.09 cents and a low of 67.70 cents [1] - On July 7, cotton futures closed at 67.91 cents per pound, marking a 0.76% decrease, and the benchmark cotton price fell by 0.83%, reaching a new low since June 24 [2] Group 2 - As of July 4, the U.S. cotton crop's good-to-excellent rating was reported at 52%, an increase from 51% the previous week and significantly higher than 45% the same time last year [2] - The cotton planting progress showed a 14% setting of bolls, up from 9% the previous week, but slightly below the five-year average of 15% [2] - Domestic cotton commercial inventory stood at 2.7476 million tons as of July 4, a decrease of 132,300 tons or 4.59% from the previous week [3]

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 7 月 8 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | ਟੀਤੀ | 1 | ER 107 1 | | ਟੀ | 原 明 | 本月 1日 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...