行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 一、行情回顾与操作建议 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 据 CFTC，截至11月 4日当周，CFTC美棉仅期货非商业持仓基金多头 78625 （+3267）张，连续第二周增加，空头 123469（-6936）张，连续第三周 减少，ICE 总持仓 30 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Daily Report dated December 10, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13780, up 40, with a trading volume of 177,854 hands (an increase of 19801) and an open interest of 474,318 (a decrease of 4249) [2] - CF05 contract closed at 13760, up 35, with a trading volume of 116,043 hands (an increase of 19584) and an open interest of 496,555 (an increase of 27804) [2] - CF09 contract closed at 13900, up 40, with a trading volume of 2,112 hands (a decrease of 243) and an open interest of 15,702 (an increase of 594) [2] - CY01 contract closed at 19840, up 45, with a trading volume of 237 hands (a decrease of 107) and an open interest of 1320 (a decrease of 104) [2] - CY05 contract closed at 19965, up 15, with a trading volume of 8 hands (unchanged) and an open interest of 68 (a decrease of 2) [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20085, unchanged, with no trading volume and an open interest of 9 (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15004 yuan/ton, down 5; CY IndexC32S was 20800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Cot A was 73.70 cents/pound, compared to the previous 73.95; FCY IndexC33S was 21059 yuan/ton, up 6 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 73.32 cents/pound, down 0.18; Indian S - 6 was 55800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton (compared to the previous 70); pure polyester yarn T32S was 11050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was 20, up 5; 5 - 9 month spread was - 140, down 5; 9 - 1 month spread was 120, unchanged [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was - 125, up 30; 5 - 9 month spread was - 120, up 15; 9 - 1 month spread was 245, down 45 [2] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6060, up 5; CY05 - CF05 was 6205, down 20; CY09 - CF09 was 6185, down 40 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: domestic - foreign cotton spread (1% tariff) was 1895, down 12; domestic - foreign cotton spread (sliding tariff) was 962, unchanged; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 259, down 6 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - According to the USDA's latest December global cotton production and sales forecast, total production was slightly reduced to 2608 million tons, total consumption was slightly reduced to 2582 million tons, and ending stocks increased by 1 million tons to 1654 million tons [4] - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) reported that as of November 30, 2025, for the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, compared with last month's assessment, production was increased by 8 million tons, imports were increased by 9 million tons, exports were increased by 2 million tons, and domestic demand was decreased by 9 million tons, resulting in an increase of 23 million tons in ending stocks. Compared with the previous year, beginning stocks increased by 36 million tons, production decreased by 5 million tons, imports increased by 15 million tons, domestic demand decreased by 32 million tons, exports remained flat, and ending stocks increased by 79 million tons [4] - The average temperature in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas (92.9% of production) was 44.31°F, 8.87°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.84 inches, 0.72 inches higher than the same period last year. In the Texas cotton - producing area, the average temperature was 48.22°F, 9.5°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.52 inches, 0.51 inches higher than the same period last year. The temperature in the U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas is decreasing and rainfall is stable. The La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter is increasing the impact, and it is expected that the subsequent temperature will be lower than the historical average. The cotton - producing areas in the U.S. South are expected to be warmer and drier in winter, which may lead to drought during the sowing season [5] Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, with the large - scale listing of new cotton in November, there may be some selling - hedging pressure. On the supply side, although this year's production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, as the peak season ends, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with a large amount of new cotton on the market, the new - year production is expected to increase significantly but the increase may be less than expected. The recent order performance on the demand side is average, but the previous negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate strongly [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will mostly be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is average. The combed high - count yarn has a good sales volume, while the inventory of other varieties has slightly increased. Traders and downstream fabric mills still mainly make rigid purchases, and some fabric mills have started year - end replenishment for next year's peak season. The prices were basically stable yesterday. After the recent price increase by spinning mills, there is a certain degree of acceptance from the downstream, but the overall cash - flow situation is still not optimistic, and the operating rate in the inland area has decreased. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream replenishment [9] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remains light. Manufacturers generally believe that there will be no significant improvement in orders in the short term, so they mainly focus on digesting inventory, with the willingness to sell as the main driving force. The sales of high - count and high - density varieties for spring and summer use in previous years are ordinary this year, and fabric mills have a strong willingness to accept orders [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 24, 2025, for CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 00 EBE, the increase/decrease rate was 71.0%, IV was 6.7%, Delta was 0.7924, Gamma was 0.0012, Vega was 8.9763, Theta was - 2.5396, the theoretical leverage was 74.2350, and the actual leverage was 58.8238 [11] - For CF601P13000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 7.00, the increase/decrease rate was - 75.9%, IV was 11.4%, Delta was - 0.0470, Gamma was 200003, Vega was 3.0820, Theta was - 12967, the theoretical leverage was 1,940.7143, and the actual leverage was 912136 [11] - For CF601P12400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 2.00, the increase/decrease rate was - 83.3%, IV was 17.3%, Delta was - 0.0106, Gamma was 0.0001, Vega was 0.8840, Theta was - 0.5394, the theoretical leverage was 6,7925000, and the actual leverage was 72,0005 [11] Volatility and Strategy - Yesterday, the 10 - day HV of cotton was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. Today, the trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased. The option strategy is to wait and see [12][13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a current price of 63.96 cents per pound, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% from the opening price [1] - On December 9, the cotton futures market showed a closing price of 63.84 cents per pound, which represented a decrease of 0.16% from the previous day [2] - The total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone as of December 8, 2025, is reported at 33,200 tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.40% [2] Group 2 - The Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported at 63.67 cents per pound on December 9, indicating a decline of 0.06% from the previous day and a 2.09% decrease compared to the same period last month [2] - Analysis from U.S. industry organizations indicates a reduction of 1.9 million acres in U.S. cotton planting area for 2025, with a significant portion of the cotton being replaced by corn [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: December 10, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou Cotton: The price of Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating and adjusting. The latest price index of Grade 328 cotton is 14,999 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The internal transaction basis of 3129/28B/less than 3% impurity of machine - picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season is around CF01 + 950, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [7]. - Pure Cotton Yarn Market: The market is still in a weak trading atmosphere, mainly for rigid demand. Except for high - count yarns with good sales, some spinning mills reported a slight improvement in the sales of low - count yarns [7]. - Cotton Grey Cloth Market: The sales of cotton grey cloth are still weak. The inventory of cotton weavers has accumulated, the loom operation rate is stable, and the overall market improvement is not obvious. The main goal is to actively digest inventory and the willingness to ship is dominant [7]. - Overseas Market: As of the week ending December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton production, 11% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of U.S. cotton is currently slower than the same period last year, and the export contracts improved significantly in early November. The current supply - demand contradiction in the international market is not prominent. Future attention should be paid to the interest rate cut situation and the adjustment of the December USDA supply - demand report [8]. - Domestic Market: On the supply side, there are limited changes, and the commercial inventory is still in the seasonal accumulation stage, reaching 4.6836 million tons as of the end of November. On the demand side, the profits and cash flow of downstream spinning mills are acceptable, and the pressure on finished product inventory is not large. Recently, due to the tight transportation capacity out of Xinjiang, the willingness to purchase spot goods in inland warehouses has increased. In November, textile and clothing exports improved significantly month - on - month after the easing of trade relations, but were still weak year - on - year. In the short term, the price will fluctuate and adjust during the contract roll - over, and the upward trend of the pressure level remains unchanged [8] Group 3: Industry News - Textile and Clothing Exports in November 2025: China's total textile and clothing exports in November 2025 were 23.869 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 7.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 267.795 billion US dollars (273.012 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. In November 2025, China's exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 12.276 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 9.0% and a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 130.009 billion US dollars (128.815 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In November 2025, China's exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 11.594 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 137.787 billion US dollars (144.197 billion US dollars in the same period last year), a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, USD/CNY exchange rate, and USD/INR exchange rate [7][18][19][28][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of new cotton is increasing significantly, with a large increase in the new year, but the increase may be less than expected. The demand side has average recent orders, but the previous negative factors have been mostly reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton futures will generally fluctuate strongly, while US cotton is likely to fluctuate within a certain range [6][8] Group 3: Summary of Each Section First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented. For example, the CF01 contract closed at 13,740 with a decrease of 10, and its trading volume was 158,053 hands with a decrease of 6,312 [2] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices and price changes of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided. For instance, the CCIndex3128B was priced at 14,999 yuan/ton with a decrease of 23 [2] - **Price Spreads**: Different types of price spreads are listed, including cotton inter - period spreads, cotton yarn inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and internal - external spreads. For example, the 1 - month to 5 - month cotton inter - period spread was 15 with a decrease of 10 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21% [4] - As of December 2, 2025, the planting progress of the 2025/26 cotton season in Brazil was 5.3%, a month - on - month increase of 4.2 percentage points and 3.2 percentage points faster than the same period last year [4] - As of the week ending December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 11% slower than the same period last year [5] Trading Logic - In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production is high, the expected increase may be less than previously anticipated. The market has entered a relatively off - peak season after the peak season, but the previous negative factors have already been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period of previous years, so Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [6] Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly fluctuate within a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [8] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [9] - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market remains light, mainly with rigid demand transactions. Except for high - count yarn, the sales of low - count yarn in some spinning mills have slightly improved. Affected by the support of Zhengzhou cotton futures, the number of low - price products has decreased recently, but the overall trading center has not changed significantly. Due to the high inventory of finished products in downstream weaving mills, the replenishment demand is not obvious, and it is expected that spinning mills will continue to operate under pressure in the short term [10] - The sales of all - cotton grey cloth are still weak, the inventory of all - cotton weaving mills is accumulating, and the operating rate of weaving mills is stable. The overall market improvement is not obvious, and the main focus is on inventory digestion. The high - count and high - density varieties that were sold smoothly in previous years are selling averagely recently, and the inventory of weaving mills has not decreased significantly [10] Third Part: Options - The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other indicators of several cotton option contracts are presented. For example, on November 24, 2025, the CF601C13400.CZC option contract closed at 183.00 with a price increase of 71.0% [12] - The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12] - The PCR values of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed that the trading volume of both call and put options decreased today [13] - Option trading strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [14] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - Multiple figures are provided, including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the price spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the price spreads of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [16][19][23][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to short - term domestic cotton price is expected to be range - bound. Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, while US cotton is expected to be range - bound in the future. For the cotton yarn industry, the overall trading atmosphere is light, and subsequent attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream replenishment [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures contracts, the closing price of CF01 is 13750 with 0% change, CF05 is 13725 with a 5 - point increase, and CF09 is 13845 with a 10 - point decrease. For cotton yarn futures contracts, CY01 closes at 19775 with a 20 - point decrease, CY05 at 19905 with a 75 - point decrease, and CY09 at 20085 with no change. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also have corresponding changes [2] - **Spot Price**: The CCIndex3128B is 15009 yuan/ton with an 11 - point increase, Cot A is 74.20 cents/pound (compared with 74.70 previously), and other spot prices such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc., also have different price changes [2] - **Price Spread**: The cotton inter - period spreads (e.g., 1 - 5 month, 5 - 9 month, 9 - 1 month) and cotton yarn inter - period spreads have corresponding price changes. The cross - variety spreads (CY01 - CF01, CY05 - CF05, CY09 - CF09) and internal - external spreads (internal - external cotton spread, internal - external yarn spread) also show different changes [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: As of October 28, 2025, the ICE cotton futures fund net long ratio was - 25.04% (a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points). In November 2025, Brazilian cotton exports were 402500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37% and a year - on - year increase of 34%, with China, India, and Bangladesh being the top three importers. Cotton trading improved slightly during the decline of Zhengzhou cotton with reduced positions, and the short - to medium - term domestic cotton price may be range - bound [4] - **Trading Logic**: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production has a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side has entered the off - season after the peak season. Considering that the current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be oscillating with a slight upward trend [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side trading, the future US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend. For arbitrage and options, the suggestion is to wait and see [6][7] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The recent overall trading atmosphere is light, with few new orders. The price of pure cotton yarn remains stable, but the cash flow of inland spinning mills is affected by the rising cotton spot price, and some spinning mills have reduced their operating rates and inventory has increased. Future attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream replenishment [9] 3.3 Options - **Option Data**: On November 24, 2025, for option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, details such as the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility (IV), and other greek values are provided. The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day [11] - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.7339 for positions and 0.6421 for trading volume. Today, the trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased. The suggestion for options trading is to wait and see [12][13]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is in a state of continuous volume contraction and low volatility, with pro - cyclical sectors showing a structural upward trend. For different futures products, there are various trends and influencing factors, including macro - economic data, policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][4]. - The bond market has a fragile trading sentiment, with ultra - long bonds leading the decline. The market is affected by expectations of monetary and fiscal policies, as well as institutional behaviors [5][6][7]. - The precious metals market lacks clear direction due to a dull macro - news background. Gold is oscillating at a high level, while silver is in a corrective phase [8][9][11]. - The shipping index of container transportation to Europe is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the spot market stabilizing and the peak - season expectation slightly recovering [12]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, different metals have different market situations. For example, copper prices are strongly supported, while alumina is expected to have limited short - term decline space [17][19]. - In the black metals sector, steel mills are reducing production, and the iron ore market is expected to oscillate. Coke and coking coal markets are facing supply - demand imbalances and price fluctuations [49][52][60]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different outlooks. For example, the soybean meal market is waiting for the USDA report, and the pig market is in a tug - of - war between upstream and downstream [64][66]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products such as PX, PTA, and short - fibers have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [82][84][86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share major indices were narrowly oscillating. The CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. rose, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose [2][3]. - News: Domestically, the market regulatory authority issued a standard for take - out platform services. Overseas, the Bank of Japan officials made statements about monetary policy [3][4]. - Capital flow: A - share trading volume decreased by over 100 billion yuan, and the central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: Be cautious and wait and see in the short term. Consider a bull spread of put options on the CSI 1000 when there are pull - backs [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with the 30 - year contract leading the decline. Bond yields generally rose [5][6]. - Capital flow: The central bank had a net cash withdrawal of 175.6 billion yuan, and the inter - bank market liquidity remained loose [6]. - Operation suggestion: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. Consider participating in varieties within 10 - year if the market sentiment improves. The curve strategy may tend to steepen [7]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market review: As of the week of November 29, US employment data showed a pattern of low lay - offs and low recruitment. Gold oscillated at a high level, while silver corrected. Platinum and palladium also declined [8][9]. - Outlook: Gold may face resistance at high levels, and short - term trading can consider selling out - of - the - money put options. Silver may see a strong short - term price trend, but attention should be paid to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction. Platinum is expected to oscillate upward in the medium - to - long term [11]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index to Europe - Index: As of December 1, the SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [12]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different situations [12]. - Logic: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market stabilized. It is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern [12]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: Copper prices rose, and the discount of electrolytic copper increased. The overall trading was poor [13]. - Macro: The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range, and the ADP employment data was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts [13]. - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the 2026 long - term premium proposed by Codelco was significantly higher. The production of electrolytic copper in November increased [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rates of copper rod processing decreased, but the downstream demand showed strong resilience [16]. - Inventory: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: With the significant increase in LME cancelled warrants, copper prices are strongly supported. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will support the upward movement of the bottom price [17]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with the main support level at 88,500 - 89,500 [17]. Alumina - Spot: Alumina prices were stable or slightly declined, and the supply pattern was gradually becoming looser [18]. - Supply: In November, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina decreased slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the phased production reduction in the north [18]. - Inventory: Alumina inventories increased [19]. - Logic: The market is in a state of high supply, high inventory, and cost support. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2,575 - 2,775 yuan/ton, with limited short - term decline space [19]. Other Non - Ferrous Metals Similar analysis methods are used for other non - ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, tin, etc., considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [20][28][33]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: Steel prices were stable, and the basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed differently [47]. - Cost and profit: The cost of coking coal and coke decreased, and steel mill profits slightly recovered [48]. - Supply: Iron ore production increased slightly year - on - year, and steel production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: Domestic demand was weak, and exports remained at a high level. The apparent demand in December was expected to decline seasonally [49]. - Inventory: Steel inventories decreased [49]. - View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Consider a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage [49]. Iron Ore - Spot: Iron ore prices declined [50]. - Futures: The main iron ore futures contract declined slightly [50]. - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties changed [50]. - Demand: Steel mill production reduction continued, and iron ore demand decreased [51]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased [51]. - Inventory: Port inventories increased, and steel mill inventories decreased [52]. - View: Iron ore futures are expected to oscillate in the range of 750 - 820 [52]. Coking Coal and Coke Similar analysis methods are used for coking coal and coke, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [54][57]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Spot market: Domestic soybean meal prices were stable or slightly declined, and trading volume decreased [61]. - Fundamental news: Analysts expected changes in US soybean export sales, and the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was high [61][62]. - Market outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to domestic soybean procurement [64]. Other Agricultural Products Similar analysis methods are used for other agricultural products such as pigs, corn, and sugar, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts [65][67][70]. Commodity Futures - Energy and Chemicals PX - Spot: PX prices continued to correct, and the market trading atmosphere was average [82]. - Profit: PX profit margins changed [82]. - Supply - demand: PX supply may contract in the first quarter, and demand was relatively strong [82]. - Market outlook: PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [82]. Other Energy and Chemical Products Similar analysis methods are used for other energy and chemical products such as PTA, short - fibers, and ethylene glycol, considering factors such as spot prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [83][86][89].

Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] Report Date - The report was released on December 5, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - The fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3130/29 - 30B, impurity within 3.5) were mostly around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan on a legal weight basis, with actual local prices sometimes lower. The sales basis for the same - quality spot was mostly in the range of CF01 + 1100 - 1250, and the basis in the 1000 - 1100 range increased slightly this week [7] - The mainstream basis for Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 41 - grade (excluding light - spotted, double 29, impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 900 and above, and the number of offers for the same - price 31 - grade increased [7] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was weak, with mainly rigid - demand transactions. The trading of medium - and low - count yarns slowed down, and inventories accumulated to some extent, while high - count yarns had good sales with longer order schedules. Overall, the operating rate decreased [7] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric and garment grey fabric market was slow, with sufficient inventory of regular varieties and weak prices. In Nantong, the production of wide - width home textile fabrics continued, and the sales were okay, but the profit was lower than expected. Some factories sold at discounted prices, and the current spot inventory was about one month [7] Overseas and Domestic Market Analysis - Overseas, the inspection volume of US cotton was slower year - on - year, and the output of Brazilian cotton was high. The supply - demand contradiction in the international market was not prominent. Future attention should be paid to interest - rate cuts and the adjustment of the December USDA supply - demand report [8] - In the domestic market, the basis for cotton spot sales was stable to slightly weak this week. After some new cotton in Southern Xinjiang was hedged, there was new low - basis spot in the market, and the quotes for the CF05 contract increased gradually. The downstream demand in the industry remained weak, and the finished - product inventory of textile enterprises continued to increase slightly. The inventory pressure of downstream finished products was not large for now. With limited changes in the fundamentals, short - term long - position holders took profits and reduced positions for adjustment, but the upward trend of the pressure level remained unchanged [8] Industry News - As of December 3, 2025, 1061 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and conducted notarized inspections in accordance with the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 20,147,916 bales, equivalent to 4.5483 million tons, an increase of 86,400 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 19,943,562 bales, equivalent to 4.5026 million tons, an increase of 85,000 tons, and the inspection volume in the inland areas was 107,413 bales, equivalent to 23,800 tons [9] Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, total warehouse receipts, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and US dollar - Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [18][19][20]

Industry Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: December 4, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton market is in a state of volatile adjustment. The latest price index for grade 328 cotton is 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market for pure cotton yarn is weak, with overall开机 decreasing. The market for cotton grey cloth is slow, and prices are weak. [7] - Overseas, as of the week ending October 21, the net long position ratio of CFTC non - commercial positions in US cotton futures was - 21.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous period but down 19 percentage points year - on - year. The market has rebounded recently due to the easing of Sino - US relations and will follow the domestic market in the short term. [8] - In the domestic market, although the output of Xinjiang cotton in the 2025/26 season has increased significantly, the hedging pressure is not concentrated. The downstream industry demand is tepid, and the inventory of textile enterprises has increased slightly. The fundamentals have limited changes, and short - term profit - taking and position - reducing may lead to a correction, while the upward trend of the pressure level remains unchanged. [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The quoted price for machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 2025/26 season is around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan/ton (public weight), and the actual price in some areas is lower. The sales basis of spot cotton has increased slightly this week. [7] - **Domestic Cotton Yarn and Grey Cloth Market**: The pure cotton yarn market has weak trading, mainly for rigid - demand purchases. The sales of medium - and low - count yarns have slowed down, while high - count yarns are doing well. The overall开机 of the industry has decreased. The market for cotton grey cloth is slow, with sufficient inventory of regular varieties, and prices are weak. [7] - **Overseas Market**: As of the week ending October 21, the non - commercial long position of CFTC US cotton futures was 72,047 (- 1,181) contracts, the short position was 134,658 (- 4,202) contracts, and the total ICE position was 287,348 (- 6,839) contracts. The net long position ratio was - 21.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous period. [8] 2. Industry News - As of December 2, 2025, a total of 1,059 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed and applied for notarized inspection of cotton in the 2025 cotton season. The cumulative inspection volume is 4.462 million tons, an increase of 80,200 tons from the previous day. Among them, Xinjiang's inspection volume is 4.4175 million tons, an increase of 78,700 tons, and the inland inspection volume is 23,000 tons. [9] 3. Data Overview - Multiple charts present data on China's cotton price index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipts, and exchange rates. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [18][19][21]