1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has deteriorated, the effective shipping capacity has rapidly shrunk. Coupled with the resurgence of Trump's tariff war and the cancellation of photovoltaic tax - rebates in April forcing shipments and stockpiling in March, the futures price of the container shipping index (European line) is supported. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern shifts from the off - season's looseness to a tight balance, and the shipping companies' bargaining power is strengthened. If the US - Iran situation worsens and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the freight index is expected to continue rising. In the medium - term, if the blockade is lifted, the oil price drops and the shipping capacity recovers, the freight rate will gradually return to the off - season fundamentals, but it is expected to be higher than the pre - blockade level due to panic and risk - aversion sentiment. Investors are advised to be cautious and control risks, and track airline quotes, cargo volume data, and the development of the US - Iran conflict and the subsequent Iranian regime transition [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 186.4 (up); EC second - main contract closing price: 1429.200 (previous value: 1885.1, up 245.80) - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 50.70 (down); EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 455.90 (previous value: - 551.20, down 59.80) - EC contract basis: - 314.91 (down) - EC main contract open interest: 8998 (up) [2] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1463.40 (down 110.11, 7.0% week - on - week); SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1045.08 (down 66.93) - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1251.46 (down 81.65); container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97 (unchanged) - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1088.14 (up 43.57); CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1508.26 (up 43.97) - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2140.00 (down 23.00); Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1942.00 (down 26.00) - Average charter price (Panamax ship): unchanged; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 28,568.00 (up 1354.00) [2] 3.3 Industry News - Global "black - swan" event: On February 28 local time, the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran. Trump said the attack aimed to destroy Iran's missile industry and navy and prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Netanyahu announced the goal was to overthrow the Iranian regime, and the attack might last at least a week. Trump also claimed that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei "was dead" and the bombing would continue. - Iran's former President Ahmadinejad was assassinated, and several Iranian military commanders died. The Iranian military launched the ninth round of "True Promise 4" attacks on US and Israeli targets. The US "Lincoln" aircraft carrier was reported to be attacked by 4 Iranian ballistic missiles, but the US military denied the attack and said no US warships were damaged or personnel injured. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Wang Yi said that under the promotion of China and Russia, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on the Iranian situation. China called for an immediate stop to military operations, a return to dialogue and negotiation, and opposition to unilateral actions [2] 3.4 Key Points to Follow - March 3, 07:30: Japan's January unemployment rate - March 3, 18:00: Eurozone's February CPI annual rate preliminary value [2]

Report Information - Report Title: "Supply and Demand Weakness, Industrial Silicon Consolidating at Low Levels" [1] - Report Date: 20260302 [1] - Author: Zhou Guisheng [1] - Qualifications: F3036194 (从业资格证), Z0015986 (投资咨询证) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with expectations of improvement in March. The short - term market will maintain low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand and operating rates [2]. - Polysilicon is facing weak supply and demand, with high inventory levels. Affected by weak market sentiment, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Price - Spot prices are weakly stable. As of February 28, 2026, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the price of 421 oxygen - passed was 8950 yuan/ton, also down 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday [2][6]. - Futures prices are fluctuating at low levels. As of February 27, the main contract closed at 8395 yuan/ton [2]. Supply - Large factories in Xinjiang's eastern plants maintain the pre - holiday production cut scale and are expected to resume production in March, with the specific time to be determined. In the southwest region, there is no obvious resumption of work after the holiday, and the operating rate remains low, resulting in overall tight supply [2]. Demand - The operating rate of polysilicon enterprises is stable compared to before the holiday. There will be a small amount of polysilicon production capacity resuming in March, but the increase is limited, leading to a moderate increase in demand for industrial silicon. The operating rate of organic silicon has increased compared to the Spring Festival period, but the overall operating rate is still low, with a small upward space in the future. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises has increased compared to before the holiday, and most recycled aluminum alloy enterprises resumed work before the Lantern Festival. In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 54,900 tons, a 7% decrease from the previous month and a 2% increase year - on - year [2]. Cost - The cost of industrial silicon has remained stable this week [2]. Inventory - As of February 26, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 560,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from before the holiday [2]. Spread - The spread between the benchmark delivery product and the alternative delivery product is stable. As of February 28, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also the same as last week [8][10]. Output - As of February 27, the number of open furnaces for national industrial silicon was 186, 1 less than before the holiday; the operating rate was 23.08%, a 0.12% decrease from the previous week; the weekly output was 69,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous week [17]. Polysilicon Price - Spot prices have declined slightly. As of February 28, 2026, the price of N - type dense material was 54,500 yuan/ton, down 3000 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the price of N - type re -投料 was 55,500 yuan/ton, down 3000 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the price of N - type mixed material was 52,500 yuan/ton, down 2500 yuan/ton from before the holiday; the price of N - type particles was 52,500 yuan/ton, down 4000 yuan/ton from before the holiday [3][13]. - Futures prices have continued to decline. As of February 27, the main contract closed at 46,495 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - In March, affected by the increase in the number of days and the resumption of production in some bases in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, the output is expected to increase month - on - month. However, there is also production capacity shutdown and replacement, and whether the leading enterprises will resume production still needs to be observed [3]. Demand - Affected by the slow start of downstream demand and high inventory, the price of silicon wafers has been under downward pressure after the holiday. Currently, low - price orders have been digested, and silicon wafer enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, paying attention to the recovery of downstream demand. In December, the import volume of polysilicon was 1872.8 tons, a 77% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 1670.4 tons, a 48% decrease from the previous month [3]. Cost - The cost of polysilicon has weakened this week [3]. Inventory - As of February 27, the polysilicon factory inventory was 328,500 tons, an increase of 11,300 tons from the previous week [19][21]. Downstream Products Silicon Wafers - As of February 28, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.075, 1.075, 1.175 and 1.375 yuan/piece respectively, down 0.1, 0.1, 0.125 and 0.1 yuan/piece from before the holiday. After the holiday, the price of silicon wafers has slightly loosened, and the mainstream transaction center of gravity has moved down. In the short term, it may follow the decline of raw material prices, and attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand in March [25]. Battery Cells - As of February 28, the prices of M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were 0.435, 0.435, 0.435 and 0.435 yuan/watt respectively, the same as before the holiday. The battery cell market is consolidating at a high level. Recently, the silver price has rebounded, and the cost pressure still exists, so the enterprise quotations remain stable [29]. Modules - As of February 28, the prices of 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon were 0.76, 0.785, 0.76 and 0.785 yuan/watt respectively, the same as before the holiday. After the holiday, the overall quotation is stable, and leading enterprises maintain the pre - holiday high ex - factory prices, but the actual transactions are lagging. Some traders sell at low prices to recover funds [32]. Organic Silicon - As of February 28, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14,000 yuan/ton, the same as before the holiday. The operating rate of organic silicon enterprises is low, with a certain small upward space [35]. Aluminum Alloy - As of February 27, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday. Recycled aluminum alloy enterprises are expected to resume production before the Lantern Festival and gradually return to the pre - holiday level [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Energy factors drive up aluminum prices, with short - term prices likely to be volatile and strong, and medium - term prices to follow the trends of related commodities and spot demand [3][4] Summary by Related Data Market Situation - The US, Israel and Iran had intense exchanges of fire, causing drastic market sentiment fluctuations, a sharp rise in the US dollar, and a sharp fall in the RMB. The Hormuz Strait was substantially closed, leading to limit - up in shipping indexes and crude oil, and most chemicals soared. Silver and gold both reached new highs since February, and non - ferrous metals rose across the board, with aluminum leading the gains [3] - Today, LME aluminum, SHFE aluminum, and domestic spot aluminum prices all rose. The SHFE aluminum closed at 24,465, and the spot price was 23,620, with the spot at a discount of - 845 points to the futures. This week, SHFE aluminum rose sharply, and the spot discount widened to - 170 yuan. Spot trading improved slightly today [3] Inventory and Demand - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and alumina inventory increased significantly. The SHFE aluminum inventory increased substantially, and spot trading improved. LME inventory decreased slightly, with an LME spot discount of - 12 US dollars, indicating some improvement in overseas spot demand [3] Technical and Market Sentiment - Technically, US crude oil soared, and LME aluminum rose significantly, trading around 3,222 US dollars. SHFE aluminum rose sharply in the afternoon and closed at 24,465, with a strong technical pattern. The trading volume and open interest of SHFE aluminum both increased, and market sentiment was strong [4] Exchange Rate and Price Ratio - This week, the RMB exchange rate rose significantly, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices dropped to 7.54, with the internal and external markets showing generally consistent trends [3] Aluminum Market Indicator Monitoring | Date | LME Aluminum - Futures - Spot Price Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Feb 24 | 6.8912 | - 160 | - 24 | 7.66 | | Feb 25 | 6.8543 | - 200 | - 27 | 7.59 | | Feb 26 | 6.8444 | - 170 | - 20 | 7.61 | | Feb 27 | 6.8610 | - 170 | - 13 | 7.58 | | Mar 2 | 6.8797 | - 170 | - 12 | 7.54 | [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The geopolitical risk caused by the sudden outbreak of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend led to a substantial impact on the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, causing significant increases in stocks related to oil and gas, shipping, military, and gold. The stock market trading volume exceeded 3 trillion, showing a pattern of volume increase and consolidation. However, the impact of geopolitical risks is mainly a short-term disturbance, and the stock market will ultimately return to its own fundamentals [3]. - The expectations of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflows form the main medium - to long - term logic for stock indices. The Two Sessions will be held this week. The macro - policy side has a strong demand for bottom - support and a firm determination to support technological innovation, which can effectively stabilize the macro - demand expectations, promote industrial transformation and upgrading, and is beneficial to improving the profit margins of listed companies [3]. - As the stock indices approach the previous high, if the actual implementation of policies fails to exceed market expectations, the willingness of funds to take profits will increase, which will restrict the upward space of stock indices. In general, stock indices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3]. - In terms of options, since the medium - to long - term upward logic of stock indices is relatively reliable, the bull spread strategy can be maintained [3]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. Related Charts a. Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF Options - Figures include the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, flat - value implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and flat - value implied volatility cone [5][8][10][11][13] b. Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Options - Figures include the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, flat - value implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and flat - value implied volatility cone [14][16][18][19][24][25] c. Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Options - Figures include the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, flat - value implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and flat - value implied volatility cone [26][28][29][32][34] d. CSI 300 Stock Index Options - Figures include the CSI 300 stock index trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, flat - value implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and flat - value implied volatility cone [36][38][39][42][45] e. CSI 1000 Stock Index Options - Figures include the CSI 1000 stock index trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, flat - value implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and flat - value implied volatility cone [47][48][50][51][54][56] f. Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Options - Figures include the Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, flat - value implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and flat - value implied volatility cone [60][61][62][67][68][69] g. Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Options - Figures include the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, flat - value implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and flat - value implied volatility cone [70][74][75][76][78][80] h. Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Stock Index Options - Figures include the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, flat - value implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and flat - value implied volatility cone [81][85][89][91]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper mainly fluctuated during the session, with little change in overall positions. The weekend attack on Iran by the US and Israel drove up precious metals, but had a relatively limited impact on the non - ferrous sector. The marginal impact of external shocks on prices is gradually weakening, resulting in small intraday fluctuations in copper prices. At the industrial level, as copper prices fell after the previous rally and enterprises gradually resumed work after the holiday, the willingness of some downstream industries to replenish inventories increased. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to its performance around the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices showed strong intraday performance, rising continuously in the afternoon session, with a slight increase in open interest. From the market trend perspective, it mainly followed the sector sentiment. Today, Shanghai aluminum crossed the 20 - day moving average, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will continue to maintain a relatively strong trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Copper - Related Charts**: The report presents charts on copper, including copper basis [10], copper monthly spread [18], SHFE warehouse receipts [11], LME inventory [16], COMEX inventory [13], and LME copper premium/discount [17] [9]. - **Aluminum - Related Charts**: The report shows charts on aluminum, such as aluminum basis [21], aluminum monthly spread [21], SHFE warehouse receipt daily report [26], LME inventory [23], Shanghai - London ratio [22], and LME aluminum premium/discount [27] [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - A-share major indices closed with mixed results, large-cap blue-chip stocks outperformed small and mid-cap stocks. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased significantly to 3.04 trillion yuan. Overseas geopolitical conflicts may push up oil prices, causing concerns about re-inflation, potentially leading to the Fed's failure to cut interest rates this year, suppressing the RMB exchange rate, and limiting the PBOC's room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the decline in overseas stock markets will also have a negative impact on A-shares. However, strong consumer spending during the Spring Festival shows the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies, and the accelerated movement of household deposits provides liquidity support for the stock market. Currently, market concerns about external risk events may put short-term pressure on A-shares, but the long-term trend depends on the increase in oil prices and the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2603) was at 4711.2, up 3.2; IH main contract (2603) was at 3045.8, up 2.4; IC main contract (2603) was at 8627.0, down 6.0; IM main contract (2603) was at 8423.8, down 97.8. IF sub-main contract (2606) was at 4665.2, down 3.0; IH sub-main contract (2606) was at 3038.4, down 0.4; IC sub-main contract (2606) was at 8502.0, down 10.0; IM sub-main contract (2606) was at 8230.6, down 94.0 [2] - IF-IH current month contract spread was 1665.4, down 3.0; IC-IF current month contract spread was 3915.8, down 15.8; IM-IC current month contract spread was -203.2, down 89.2; IC-IH current month contract spread was 5581.2, down 18.8; IM-IF current month contract spread was 3712.6, down 105.0; IM-IH current month contract spread was 5378.0, down 108.0 [2] - IF current quarter - current month was -46.0, down 5.6; IF next quarter - current month was -110.2, down 11.0; IH current quarter - current month was -7.4, down 3.0; IH next quarter - current month was -42.6, down 2.2; IC current quarter - current month was -125.0, down 4.8; IC next quarter - current month was -276, down 6.8; IM current quarter - current month was -193.2, up 7.6; IM next quarter - current month was -394.8, up 7.2 [2] Futures Positions - IF top 20 net positions were 35,052.00, down 4354.0; IH top 20 net positions were 20,152.00, down 1523.0; IC top 20 net positions were 41,437.00, down 1194.0; IM top 20 net positions were 59,048.00, down 1813.0 [2] Spot Prices - CSI 300 was at 4728.67, up 18.0; SSE 50 was at 3046.5, up 7.0; CSI 500 was at 8658.3, down 0.1; CSI 1000 was at 8477.0, down 83.9 [2] - IF main contract basis was -17.5, down 20.6; IH main contract basis was -0.7, down 6.6; IC main contract basis was -31.3, down 18.3; IM main contract basis was -53.2, down 23.7 [2] Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 30,457.65, up 5402.84; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 26,691.98, up 21.57 [2] - Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 3415.43, up 246.93; reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) was 0.0, up 190.0 [2] - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were -278.52, down 945.98 [2] - Proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 20.83, down 38.80; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.315, down 0.003 [2] - IO at-the-money call option closing price (2603) was 38.40, down 5.20; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) was 12.18, down 0.37 [2] - IO at-the-money put option closing price (2603) was 74.20, down 2.00; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) was 11.73, down 0.52 [2] - CSI 300 index 20-day volatility (%) was 13.84, down 0.03; trading volume PCR (%) was 63.00, up 15.86; open interest PCR (%) was 64.94, up 0.85 [2] Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares were at 3.20, down 3.00; technical aspect was at 2.10, down 3.80; capital aspect was at 4.40, down 2.10 [2] Industry News - The 15th meeting of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference decided that the 4th session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026 [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics released the 2025 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin on February 28, showing that the GDP in 2025 was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5% increase from the previous year. Final consumption expenditure drove GDP growth by 2.6 percentage points, capital formation drove GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points, and net exports of goods and services drove GDP growth by 1.6 percentage points [2] - Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei was assassinated on the morning of February 28. The Iranian government announced a 40-day national mourning and will soon elect a new supreme leader. US President Trump said that the military operation against Iran may last about four weeks. He also said that the new Iranian leadership hopes to resume negotiations, and he has agreed to hold talks [2] Key Points to Watch - On March 2 at 17:00, the US February ISM manufacturing index will be released [3] - On March 5 at 09:30, China's February official manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI will be released [3] - On March 5, the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing [3]

尿素产业日报 2026-03-02 度较大，随着物流发运恢复以及下游工业开工提升，尿素需求提升，尿素工厂出货或加快，库存或呈现一 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 定程度下降。虽然节后农业刚需释放叠加工业需求回暖，但受高供应压制影响涨幅或有限，需关注需求释 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1817 | -30 郑州尿素5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 25 | -14 -14350 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 262781 | 2904 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -40687 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1830 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1860 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1860 | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the RB2605 contract fluctuated widely. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, some steel mills in certain regions have blast furnace production - cut plans. The rebar market may maintain a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating above the 0 - axis with a stable red bar. The reference view is to go long on dips and pay attention to risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,067.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the position volume was 1,903,813 lots, a decrease of 44,381 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 33,296 lots, an increase of 1,229 lots. The RB5 - 10 contract spread was - 38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 22,828 tons, unchanged. The HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 152 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,240.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; (actual weight) was 3,323 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,120.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the RB main contract was 173.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 0.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 750.00 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 3.00 yuan. The price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,910.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 170.9631 million tons, an increase of 1.5398 million tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 625,900 tons, an increase of 72,100 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.7506 million tons, a decrease of 135,200 tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 2.1946 million tons, an increase of 452,400 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.24%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.48%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points [2] Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.651 million tons, a decrease of 52,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 36.19%, a decrease of 1.16 percentage points. The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.3284 million tons, an increase of 117,700 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 5.6776 million tons, an increase of 727,900 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 11.46%, a decrease of 10.42 percentage points. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 68.18 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese rebar was 13.75 million tons, an increase of 190,000 tons. The monthly net export volume of steel products was 10.78 million tons, an increase of 1.3 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was - 3.80%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 17.20%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 2.20%, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 659.89 million square meters, a decrease of 3.824 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 58.77 million square meters, a decrease of 5.313 million square meters. The area of unsold commercial housing was 40.236 million square meters, a decrease of 875,000 square meters [2] Industry News - The China Index Academy reported that affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the listing and trading activity in the real - estate market in February declined seasonally. The average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities was 12,835 yuan per square meter, with a month - on - month decline of 0.54%, narrowing by 0.31 percentage points compared with the previous month. According to the international oil tanker traffic monitoring system, the sailing speed of oil tankers in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz has generally dropped to zero, indicating that shipping in the region has come to a standstill. Three Anglo - American oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2365 | 186 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | -2 | 52 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 942819 | -34450 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -111823 | 84915 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 8931 | -48 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2145 | -35 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1835 | 5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 310 | -30 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -34 | -4 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 259 | -4 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 322 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 289 | 0 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -63 | -4 | | 上游情况 | NY ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a view of "oscillating on the bullish side" for the iron ore industry [2] 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, the I2605 contract rebounded with a reduction in positions. Due to the geopolitical situation where Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced a ban on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, there are expectations of rising freight rates and a potential reduction in international iron ore supply, which may support iron ore prices. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil increased, the arrival volume decreased, and domestic port inventories increased again. After the Spring Festival, there are expectations of an increase in the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising, and the red column is expanding [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 754.50 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 542,727 lots, down 3,955 lots; the spread between the I 5 - 9 contracts is 21 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 39,219 lots, up 3,286 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts are 2,900 lots, unchanged; the quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 is 99.1 US dollars/ton, up 0.74 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 802 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 792 yuan/dry ton, up 1 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 707 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) is 38 yuan, down 3 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 99.75 US dollars/ton, up 0.45 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.32, unchanged; the estimated import cost is 795 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 3,340.70 tons, up 19.80 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,230.00 tons, down 91.00 tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,891.30 tons, up 159.18 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,085.10 tons, down 1,618.83 tons; the iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 tons, up 911.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) is 21.00 days, down 8 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 37.12 tons, down 1.78 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 59.03%, down 2.24%; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 41.72 tons, up 2.17 tons; the BDI index is 2,140.00, up 23.00; the iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 23.45 US dollars/ton, down 0.02 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.239 US dollars/ton, up 0.41 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 80.24%, up 0.09%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 87.48%, up 1.05%; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 15.87%, down 0.45%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 17.57%, up 0.06%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 16.81%, up 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 16.96%, down 0.01% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3,340.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.8 tons. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,690.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.6 tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 1,948.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.3 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,571.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 138.0 tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 742.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 39.7 tons. - From February 23 to March 1, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,230.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 91.1 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,146.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5 tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,032.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons [2]