Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff policies, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, and A - shares have high investment value in the medium and long term [3][9]. - Glass and soda ash are in the cycle of inventory digestion. The supply adjustment is deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - The prices of gold and silver may continue to be strong, but there are risks of Trump's threats being realized. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range, and zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [17][19][20]. - The prices of crude oil, methanol, and other energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and policies, with different trends [11][12]. - The prices of iron ore, steel, and other black commodities are expected to be strong in the short term, and the prices of coal and coke are affected by policies and demand [22][23][24]. - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal and oils are expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the price of shipping on the European container line is affected by market expectations [25][26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key News - **International News**: The US regulatory authorities issued a blue - book on cryptocurrency custody. Trump will discuss tariffs with other countries and has announced new tariff policies [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade volume increased steadily, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 2.7%. The financial data in June were better than expected [6][7]. 3.2 Performance of External Markets - The S&P 500, T STOXX50, and other indices had different degrees of increase or decrease on July 14 compared with July 11. For example, the S&P 500 rose by 0.14%, and ICE Brent crude oil fell by 2.11% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, and the stock index fluctuated slightly. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, and A - shares have high investment value [3][9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices fluctuated greatly. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the market risk preference has increased [10]. - **Energy - Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Trump's tariff policies and OPEC's production - increase plan have increased the uncertainty of oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The inventory of coastal methanol increased, and the short - term trend was slightly bullish [12]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins were in a consolidation phase. The cost support weakened, and attention should be paid to the supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. The supply adjustment was deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - **Rubber**: The price of natural rubber was affected by climate and supply - demand. The short - term upward space was limited, and there might be a callback [16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. The short - term trend was affected by Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price fell at night. The copper price might fluctuate within a range under the influence of multiple factors [18][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The short - term zinc price might have wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased weekly, and the demand increased slightly. The overall market was in a volatile pattern [4][21]. - **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was expected to be strong in the short term. The demand was supported, and the supply might increase in the second half of the year [22]. - **Steel**: The steel price was expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the cost was rising [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by policies and demand. The supply pressure still existed [24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The prices of bean and rapeseed meal were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The US soybean production and demand data were adjusted, and the final inventory increased [25]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The demand for palm oil was strong, and the overall market was in a volatile pattern [26]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price of shipping on the European container line was in a volatile pattern. The market was still gambling on the peak - season price space, and attention should be paid to the release of August shipping prices [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance, with the market in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. Investors are advised to control risks and wait and see [2]. - For methanol, the upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The demand side is weak, and the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply and demand are acceptable, the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also limited by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [4]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen significantly, but they should guard against the risk of correction. The overall tire start - up rate is relatively high, and it is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view in the second half of the year, with a neutral - to - long or neutral short - term view [7][8][10]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The disk's main logic is the transition from destocking to stockpiling. Although it has strengthened recently following the black building materials sector, it will still face pressure in the future [12]. - For benzene - ethylene, there are different views from both long and short sides. The short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate due to global trade policy uncertainties and seasonal off - season factors [17]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July due to the supply - demand weakness in the seasonal off - season [18]. - For PX, after the end of the maintenance season, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, it is expected to continue destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following crude oil [20][21]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - For ethylene glycol, the Saudi plant's unexpected situation is expected to make it run strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals are weak in the long term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Situation**: WTI主力原油期货收跌1.92美元，跌幅2.79%，报66.83美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌1.49美元，跌幅2.11%，报69.14美元；INE主力原油期货收涨13.60元，涨幅2.65%，报527.5元 [5]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that the crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. Gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.86 million barrels to 89.83 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. Diesel commercial inventory increased by 1.76 million barrels to 102.59 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. Total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 3.63 million barrels to 192.42 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.92% [5]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract rose by 26 yuan/ton, reporting 2396 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose by 12 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 16 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the start - up rate has fallen from a high level. The overseas device start - up rate has returned to the middle - high level. The demand side is in the off - season, with the port olefin load reduction and the traditional demand start - up rate falling [2]. Urea - **Market Situation**: On July 14, the 09 contract fell by 9 yuan/ton, reporting 1764 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 46 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The domestic start - up rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The demand side, such as compound fertilizer start - up rate, has bottomed out and rebounded, and the export collection is still continuing [4]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: NR and RU have risen significantly [7]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 10, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The semi - steel tire start - up load of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6% [8]. PVC - **Market Situation**: The PVC09 contract rose by 30 yuan, reporting 5010 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4850 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 160 (- 40) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 113 (- 1) yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The overall start - up rate of PVC this week was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The demand side was weak, and the domestic start - up rate was still lower than in previous years and was gradually entering the off - season. Exports were expected to weaken [12]. Benzene - Ethylene - **Market Situation**: Spot prices and futures prices have risen, and the basis has weakened [14]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The cost side of pure benzene start - up rate has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. The supply side of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has decreased, but the benzene - ethylene start - up rate has continued to rise. The port inventory has increased, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [17]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Global trade policy uncertainties have returned. The spot price has fallen, and the PE valuation has limited downward space. The trader inventory is fluctuating at a high level, and the demand side is in the seasonal off - season [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Situation**: Futures prices have fallen [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand side is in the seasonal off - season, with the downstream start - up rate seasonally fluctuating downward [18]. PX - **Market Situation**: The PX09 contract rose by 84 yuan, reporting 6778 yuan. The PX CFR rose by 15 dollars, reporting 852 dollars, and the basis was 243 (+ 42) yuan, with the 9 - 1 spread of 94 (+ 20) yuan [20]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: China's PX load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [20]. PTA - **Market Situation**: The PTA09 contract rose by 40 yuan, reporting 4740 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 25 yuan, reporting 4735 yuan, with a basis of 8 (+ 8) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 40 (+ 2) yuan [22]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Situation**: The EG09 contract rose by 52 yuan, reporting 4357 yuan. The East China spot price rose by 14 yuan, reporting 4398 yuan, with a basis of 67 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 12 (+ 14) yuan [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The ethylene glycol load was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. The port inventory decreased by 2.7 tons to 55.3 tons [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, particularly focusing on tariff negotiations and their implications for various industries and markets [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Negotiations - U.S. President Trump announced plans to negotiate tariffs with multiple countries, including the EU, and has already sent letters to over 20 national leaders regarding new tariffs set to take effect on August 1 [1]. - A 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. was also announced, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with inventory decreasing by 970,000 heavy boxes to 57.34 million heavy boxes [2][15]. Soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 1.864 million tons, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels [2][15]. - **Stock Indices**: U.S. stock indices saw slight fluctuations with a market turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.082 billion yuan to 1.862586 trillion yuan, suggesting a growing interest in long-term investments [3][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, while inventory rose by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons, indicating a mixed market sentiment with potential price fluctuations ahead [4][21]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's total goods trade for the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [6]. - The People's Bank of China reported a 7.1% year-on-year increase in RMB loans, with the total social financing scale growing by 8.9% [8]. Group 4: Market Trends - **Bond Market**: The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.668%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [10]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices are under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding global tariffs and production increases from OPEC, which may affect demand forecasts [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which may impact future prices and market dynamics [25].

Group 1 - The 12th World Congress of Chemical Engineering and the 21st Asia-Pacific Chemical Alliance Conference showcased advanced materials and new equipment that are pivotal for future industrial development [1][2] - A new film developed over 20 years can operate safely in extreme environments, maintaining stable physical properties from -260°C to 420°C, applicable in high-end electrical insulation, new energy vehicle battery separators, and aerospace thermal protection [1] - The first national-level large model in the energy and chemical industry, "Kunlun Model," features a language model with 300 billion parameters, covering the entire oil and gas industry chain, reducing R&D cycles by over 30% [1][3] Group 2 - China has become the largest producer and consumer of the chemical industry globally, with an oil and gas total output of 435 million tons of oil equivalent in 2024, marking a 4.0% growth, and a major chemical product output growth of approximately 7.2% [3] - The average annual demand increase in China accounts for nearly 60% of global demand, driving industrial upgrades, with the fine chemical sector capturing 50% of the global market share [3] - The chemical industry in China represents about 30% of the national economy, with a 40% share of the global chemical market, indicating rapid development and large scale [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides insights into various economic indicators and industry performance metrics, highlighting trends in liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, and export orders, which may present investment opportunities and risks in the market. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -5.6 percentage points in May 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points [3] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.07% [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in late June was 2.129 million tons, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.88% [4] - Price changes included rebar up by 1.89%, cement price index down by 1.57%, and iron ore up by 2.47% [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - The prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by -1.49% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1268 yuan/ton [5] Industrial Products Chain - The national semi-steel tire operating rate was 72.92%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.51 percentage points [6] - The June PMI new orders index was 50.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4 percentage points [6] Subcategories - The capacity utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum reached a new high since 2012 [7] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 20,760 yuan/ton, with a calculated profit of 3,331 yuan/ton (excluding tax), reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.84% [7] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.24 this week, with the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel at 110 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) was 140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,313.70 points, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.18% [9] Valuation Percentiles - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.82%, with the real estate sector showing the best performance at +6.12% [10] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 0.54, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually opening for tapping. In Yunnan, heavy rainfall restricts glue output, and with strong competition from latex factories, raw material prices remain firm. In Hainan, rainfall disrupts local areas, limiting the increase in raw material supply. Local factories generally increase prices for raw material procurement. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory growth. Overseas shipments arriving at the port for storage have increased, but downstream tire companies are mainly replenishing stocks in moderation and observing, which suppresses the port's shipping rate, resulting in continued inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. - In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire companies varied. The production schedules of semi - steel tire companies that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire companies slightly dragged down the all - steel tire capacity utilization rate. This week, the production schedules of maintenance companies will return to normal levels, and there is still room for the capacity utilization rate to recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire companies. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,500 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 14,360 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,330 yuan/ton (down 45 yuan/ton). - The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 885 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), and the 8 - 9 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 5 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton). - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,035 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton). - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 3,400 lots to 148,593 lots, and the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 2,938 lots to 22,585 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 26,556 lots (down 8,011 lots), and the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 5,948 lots (up 83 lots). - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber decreased by 40 tons to 188,650 tons, and the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber was 37,195 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,550 yuan/ton (unchanged). - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,150 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,100 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,000 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton), and the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton). - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 60 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the basis of the non - standard product of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 210 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton). - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,437 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 112 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan/ton). [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 65.37 Thai baht/kg (up 0.14 Thai baht/kg), and the market reference price of rubber sheets was 61.39 Thai baht/kg (down 0.61 Thai baht/kg). - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.3 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), and the market reference price of cup lump was 47.8 Thai baht/kg (up 0.25 Thai baht/kg). - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 130.4 US dollars/ton (down 22 US dollars/ton), and the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 3.86 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 14.82 million tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 22.23 million tons (down 2.64 million tons). - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.56% (up 0.81 percentage points), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.92% (up 2.51 percentage points). [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 40.67 days (up 0.22 days), and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.76 days (down 0.72 days). - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces (up 800,000 pieces), and the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces (up 1.08 million pieces). [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.64% (up 0.01 percentage points), and the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.02% (down 0.18 percentage points). - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.35% (down 0.07 percentage points), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.34% (down 0.1 percentage points). [2] Industry News - From July 13th to July 19th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly concentrated in southern Cambodia and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which reduced the impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly distributed in southeastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. - As of July 13th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 636,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, an increase of 0.63%. The bonded area inventory was 79,000 tons, an increase of 0.26%; the general trade inventory was 557,400 tons, an increase of 0.69%. The warehousing rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 3.10 percentage points, and the shipping rate increased by 1.06 percentage points; the warehousing rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.46 percentage points, and the shipping rate increased by 0.18 percentage points. - As of July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The production schedules of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually resumed, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises this week. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire sample enterprises dragged down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires slightly. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the rubber sector are weak. The sharp rise in the rubber sector on Thursday was likely due to macro - factors as its ranking in commodities did not significantly improve after the rise. The rumored reasons such as smoke sheet rubber storage and Southeast Asian rainstorms did not match the time and data, and the early implementation of EUDR is unlikely [3]. - From the perspective of synthetic rubber, the high - frequency data of the upstream and downstream are favorable. The BR - RU spread continued to strengthen this week, and there is a better safety margin for relatively long - BR in July [3]. - Analyzing the import, inventory, and downstream automobile tire consumption data of natural rubber, it is expected that the mixed basis still has room to weaken [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Thailand Rainfall and Rubber - Thailand's daily - average weighted rainfall decreased month - on - month to 4.49mm/day. The average rainfall in the past 9 months increased by +1.91mm/day year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 3 consecutive months. The decrease in rainfall did not lead to a monthly - level increase in rainfall [9]. - The spread between Thailand's smoked sheet rubber and standard rubber decreased month - on - month to +533 dollars/ton. The average premium in the past 12 months increased by +31.0% year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 9 consecutive months [9]. 3.2 Thailand Glue and Cup Lumps - The spread between Thailand's cup lumps and glue strengthened month - on - month to - 6.70 Thai baht/kg. The average value in the past 12 months strengthened by +2.56 Thai baht/kg year - on - year, and it has been strengthening marginally for 8 consecutive months, which is bearish for RU unilateral [15]. 3.3 EUDR - EUDR is unlikely to be implemented ahead of schedule under the background of the decline of environmental protection in Europe. Policy adjustments, industry and economic resistance, and political and social factors have all led to the obstruction of environmental protection policies [18][19]. 3.4 Rubber Valuation - The position of rubber valuation in commodities has only slightly increased. After the sharp rise on Thursday, the ranking of the rubber sector in commodities did not change significantly [3][20]. 3.5 Rubber Production - In May, the output of the rubber alliance increased month - on - month to 767,000 tons, but decreased by - 3.2% year - on - year, with marginal production cuts for 4 consecutive months. In the long term, when the output of natural rubber is high, it is relatively weak compared to synthetic rubber, and vice versa. The current situation is bearish for the BR - RU spread and relatively bullish for RU [25]. 3.6 Crude Oil - As of July, Brent crude oil was at 68.3 dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of - 20.5%. Crude oil is still in a weakening trend. The cycle of crude oil's influence on the strength of rubber unilateral is about 2 years, and about 1 year for synthetic rubber. The current stabilization of crude oil has little driving effect on the unilateral, and is more favorable for the long - BR and short - RU spread [28]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber Supply - As of last Friday, the domestic butadiene capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month to 68.9%. The average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increased by +4.4% year - on - year, with marginal production cuts for 2 consecutive weeks. The domestic high - cis butadiene rubber capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month to 65.5%. The average capacity utilization rate in the past 5 weeks increased by +8.5% year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 6 consecutive weeks. The domestic butadiene port inventory increased month - on - month to 23,600 tons, and the average inventory in the past 5 weeks increased by +4,700 tons year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 3 consecutive weeks. The total inventory of domestic butadiene rubber traders and factories was 32,800 tons, and the 5 - week average inventory increased by +10,000 tons year - on - year, with the increase narrowing for 2 consecutive months. The supply and balance of butadiene and butadiene rubber were tight this week [36]. 3.8 Tire Consumption - As of last Friday, the overall tire production and inventory balance data were satisfactory. The domestic all - steel tire production line operating rate increased month - on - month to 64.6%. The average operating rate in the past 12 weeks increased by +3.9% year - on - year, with marginal production increases for 7 consecutive weeks. The all - steel tire finished product inventory increased by 1 day month - on - month to 41 days, and the 24 - week average inventory decreased by - 1.6% year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 51 consecutive weeks. The domestic semi - steel tire production line operating rate increased month - on - month to 72.9%. The average operating rate in the past 24 weeks decreased by - 2.3% year - on - year, with marginal production increases for 5 consecutive weeks. The semi - steel tire product inventory remained flat month - on - month at 46 days, and the average inventory in the past 24 weeks increased by +36.5% year - on - year, with marginal destocking for 7 consecutive weeks [46]. 3.9 Automobile Production - In May, China's truck production decreased month - on - month to 292,000 vehicles; in March, Japan's truck production increased month - on - month to 96,000 vehicles; in April, South Korea's truck production remained flat at 17,000 vehicles. The combined output was 405,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of +3.0%, and the 12 - month cumulative value decreased by - 14.6% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for 4 consecutive months. In May, China's passenger car production increased month - on - month to 2.133 million vehicles; in March, Japan's passenger car production decreased month - on - month to 618,000 vehicles; in April, South Korea's passenger car production increased month - on - month to 360,000 vehicles. The combined output was 3.291 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of +8.5%, and the 12 - month cumulative output decreased by - 4.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for 4 consecutive months, which is bullish for RU unilateral. The automobile industries of China, Japan, and South Korea have been recovering marginally for 4 consecutive months, but it is still early for them to become an obvious driving force for the unilateral [53]. 3.10 NR Month - Spread - As of July, the average daily open interest of the NR contract was equivalent to 1.1787 million tons, the warehouse receipt volume was 32,100 tons, and the virtual - to - real ratio was 36.06 times. Since the virtual - to - real ratio lags behind the month - spread, it is expected that the decline in the open interest of the NR contract will be greater than the destocking of warehouse receipts in the later period. From the long - term relationship, the NR month - spread may strengthen until September, and there is a large expectation of weakening after that (near - month weakening). Attention should be paid to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage when the month - spread weakens [58]. 3.11 Mixed Basis - In May, the total import volume of standard rubber and mixed rubber from Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia was 321,600 tons, with a consecutive 2 - month month - on - month decrease. The average import volume in the past 6 months increased by +10.1% year - on - year, with marginal increases for 10 consecutive months, which is bearish for mixed rubber. Analyzing various data, it is expected that the mixed basis still has room to weaken [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The overall situation is neutral. The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [4]. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral assessment. The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line (bullish). The main force has a net short position, and short positions are increasing (bearish). The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is advised [4]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [4][6]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year. Recently, the inventory of the exchange and in Qingdao has changed little [4][14][17]. Import - Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, while tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are seasonally increasing [23][26][29][32]. Basis - The spot price is 14,350, and the basis is - 10, showing a neutral state. On July 11, the basis narrowed [4][35]. Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on July 11. The US dollar quotation in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also provided [8]. Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [6]. Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [6]. Risk Points - World economic recession, lower - than - expected domestic economic growth, and Sino - US trade frictions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both Shanghai Rubber (RU) and Synthetic Rubber (BR), short - term and medium - term views are "oscillation", while the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "running with a slight upward bias" [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Market Situation**: On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai Rubber futures showed an oscillation with a slight downward trend, and the futures price slightly decreased by 0.42% to 14,325 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Monday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai Rubber futures may maintain an oscillation and stabilization trend [5] - **Core Logic**: The recent domestic high - level meeting set the tone, including governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. Currently, the supply side of the rubber market is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. At the same time, downstream demand is weak, the growth rate of tire production and sales has slowed down, and terminal demand has entered the off - season [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Market Situation**: On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillation and consolidation trend, and the futures price slightly decreased by 0.56% to 11,520 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Monday, the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures may maintain an oscillation with a slight upward trend [7] - **Core Logic**: The recent domestic high - level meeting set the tone, including governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. Recently, the operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have slightly increased, driving the further improvement of domestic butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization. At the same time, downstream demand is weak, the growth rate of tire production and sales has slowed down, and terminal demand has entered the off - season [7]

期货热点追踪 暴雨来袭！泰国橡胶供应或受影响，但为何价格还在跌？ 相关链接 ...