首席点评： 原油反弹，黄金回落 特朗普称或将"大幅降低"对华关税，中国外交部：打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。中国外交部发言人郭 嘉昆强调，如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础 上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也 是行不通的。美国 4 月 Markit 综合 PMI 超预期下降创 16 个月新低，信心挫、价格涨，制造业 PMI 不 降反升好于预期。数据表明， 4 月美国商业活动增长降至 16 个月低点，对未来一年商业前景的预期也 下降至自疫情以来最低之一；商品和服务的销售价格上涨幅度为一年多来最大，尤其是制造品价格大幅 上涨，与关税有关。就业指数低迷。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、橡胶 原油 ： SC 夜盘回落 2.25% 。有消息援引哈萨克新任命的能源部长的话说，在决定石油产量水平时， 哈萨克斯坦将优先考虑国家利益，而非欧佩克及其减产同盟国的利益。他还表示，该国未能减少三大产 油项目的石油产量，因为这些项目为海外巨头控制。路透社援引三位熟悉欧佩克及其减产同盟国会谈的 消息人士的话说，一些成员国将建议该集团在 6 月份 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global risk appetite has significantly increased due to the US releasing signals of trade relaxation. The short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported by factors such as the Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures to prevent RMB exchange - rate overshooting, strengthened domestic policy support, and the US - China trade relaxation signals. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index will rebound with short - term fluctuations, treasury bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and different commodity sectors also show different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The IMF has significantly downgraded the global economic outlook due to the impact of Trump's high tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade tension between the US and China will ease, and Trump has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell but hopes for a rate cut, leading to a sharp rebound in the US dollar and a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestic: The Chinese foreign exchange regulator's measures have relieved the RMB exchange - rate pressure, and the short - term risk preference of the domestic market is strongly supported [1]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as logistics trade, cross - border payment, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen slightly. With the relief of RMB exchange - rate pressure and strengthened policy support, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market continued to rise on Tuesday. The US government's credit damage, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and other factors will support the short - term strength of gold. If there is a correction, it may present a long - term allocation opportunity. Silver follows gold but has greater correction pressure [2][3]. 3.4 Black Metals 3.4.1 Steel - The steel futures and spot markets rose and then fell on Tuesday, with a significant decline in trading volume. The real demand recovery lacks sustainability, and the supply remains high. The short - term steel market is recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. 3.4.2 Iron Ore - The iron ore futures and spot prices fell slightly on Tuesday. The ore fundamentals are still good, but if the steel prices remain low, iron ore may experience a supplementary decline [5]. 3.4.3 Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat on Tuesday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the operating rates of silicon manganese and silicon iron enterprises have decreased. The short - term ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [6]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals 3.5.1 Methanol - The methanol price in Taicang fluctuated slightly. The supply and demand pressure is expected to be small. The 05 contract price will mainly oscillate, and the 09 contract has a large supply - expectation pressure, waiting for a short - selling opportunity on a rebound [7]. 3.5.2 PP - The domestic PP market quotation was slightly adjusted. Although there is new production capacity, the supply reduction on the supply side will relieve the overall pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover [8]. 3.5.3 LLDPE - The PE market price was adjusted. The near - month price has limited downward space due to low - inventory support. The 09 contract's supply and demand situation needs to be tracked, and the long - term price is still under pressure due to new production capacity release [9]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Copper - The copper price rose due to the weakening of the US dollar. The fundamentals are okay, and with the improvement of market risk preference and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening, the copper price will continue to rebound with short - term fluctuations [10]. 3.6.2 Aluminum - The domestic fundamentals of aluminum are good, with significant inventory reduction. There is short - term rebound space, but it is still bearish in the medium term [10]. 3.6.3 Tin - The supply of tin is gradually recovering, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term tin price will rebound, but the rebound space is limited [11]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean closed higher. The US soybean planting progress is slightly faster, and the weather conditions vary in different regions [12]. 3.7.2 Soybean Meal - Since mid - April, the soybean meal spot basis has been strongly pulled up, but it may quickly decline later. The risk of a decline after May Day is relatively high [13]. 3.7.3 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed meal has entered the peak demand season, but the supply risk premium has declined. The short - term price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to continue to widen [13]. 3.7.4 Oils - The inventory of soybean oil is accelerating to decline, the rapeseed oil is in the off - season, the Malaysian palm oil inventory has reached an inflection point, and the domestic palm oil is less driven by cost [14]. 3.7.5 Pigs - The current market is mainly trading on seasonal trends. After the second - fattening stimulates the spot price to rise, the demand matching is low, and the spot price may be under pressure around May [14]. 3.7.6 Corn - The upper - limit pressure of the current corn price range is due to weak demand and high inventory, while the lower - limit support comes from low inventory in the producing areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. The C05 contract may decline to narrow the basis [15].

Spot Market - Mainstream iron ore powder spot prices: Rizhao Port PB powder-3 at 767 yuan/ton, Brazilian mixed powder-3 at 785 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - As of yesterday's close, the main iron ore futures contract increased by 0.21% (+1.5), closing at 711 yuan/ton [2] Basis - The optimal delivery product is BRBF. The warehouse costs for PB powder and Brazilian mixed powder are 813 yuan and 800 yuan, respectively. The basis for the May contract PB powder is around 47 yuan/ton [3] Demand - Daily average pig iron production is 2.4012 million tons, down by 0.1 million tons; blast furnace operating rate is 83.56%, up by 0.28%; blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 90.15%, down by 0.04 percentage points; steel mill profit rate is 54.98%, up by 1.3 percentage points [4] Supply - This week, global shipments increased slightly. Global shipments rose by 178,000 tons to 29.255 million tons. Total shipments from Australia and Brazil reached 24.377 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons. Australian shipments were 17.992 million tons, up by 929,000 tons, with shipments to China at 15.743 million tons, up by 980,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 6.386 million tons, down by 899,000 tons. Port arrivals totaled 23.253 million tons, down by 2.002 million tons [5] Inventory - As of April 17, the inventory at 45 ports is 140.56 million tons, down by 2.8502 million tons; iron ore arrivals at ports increased week-on-week, while pig iron production maintained high levels, leading to a reduction in port inventory. Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 945,900 tons to 90.5292 million tons, with daily consumption of imported ore slightly increasing, as steel mills maintain a low inventory strategy [6] Market Outlook - The iron ore September contract fluctuated yesterday, with the May-September spread remaining high. Port spot transactions slightly declined, while long-term spot prices significantly fell. On the macro level, the U.S. stance has softened, with Trump indicating that final tariffs will be significantly lower than current levels. The macro environment may continue to fluctuate. In terms of fundamentals, daily pig iron production remains around 2.4 million tons, with SMM predicting a continued decline in production due to furnace maintenance, coupled with acceptable steel mill profits, suggesting a slight growth potential for pig iron, although overall space is limited. The supply-demand data for finished steel indicates resilient demand, with significant rebounds in rebar and wire rod demand, while cold-rolled demand continues to decline. Future attention should be on export and terminal demand marginal changes. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased slightly this week, while port arrivals saw a significant decline. The recovery of port unloading efficiency has reduced the number of ships at port, converting to inventory, leading to a slight increase in port inventory. Looking ahead to Q2, the marginal impact on terminal demand will depend on exports and infrastructure; if exports decline more than expected, expectations for inventory accumulation will increase. However, if resilience is maintained, iron ore may trend towards supply-demand balance, with a higher probability of slight inventory reduction or stabilization. In reality, high pig iron production maintains a destocking pattern for iron ore, with a favorable supply-demand situation, pending verification of terminal demand and pig iron levels, maintaining a near strong and far weak pattern. Short-term long-dated contracts lack a basis for significant rebounds, and caution is advised regarding policy disruptions such as crude steel production cuts. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate [7]

期货热点追踪 交易员表示卖家对铁矿石价格保持乐观，预计会有节前补库需求，能否助力铁矿石价格反弹？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dazhong Mining aims to achieve a certain scale of by-product ore sales from the Sichuan Gada lithium mine by 2025, focusing on increasing reserves and production in 2024 [1] Group 1: Operational Goals - The company is prioritizing the expansion and technological transformation of its two major mines under Jindisheng Mining this year [1] - Dazhong Mining is fully committed to advancing the infrastructure construction of the Hunan Jizhu Mountain lithium mine [1] - The company plans to focus on the transfer of the first mining area at the Sichuan Gada lithium mine [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Plans - Key areas for capital investment will include the construction of the Hunan Jizhu Mountain lithium mine, the Sichuan Gada lithium mine, and technological transformation projects at the Zhouyoufang iron mine, the Chongxin iron mine, and the Guyang Hejiao iron mine [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The demand side shows that the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls last week, downstream steel purchases were stable, supporting steel mill operations, and hot metal production remained at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 83.56%, a 0.28 percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.70 percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The daily average hot metal production was 240.12 tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons from the previous week but an increase of 13.90 tons from the same period last year [2]. - On the supply side, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil last week was 24.348 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 418,000 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 145.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8102 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2231 million tons, a decrease of 80,400 tons [2]. - Overall, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. With stable downstream steel purchases supporting steel mill operations and high - level hot metal production on the demand side, and the State Council deploying a package of measures to stabilize the economy, enhancing the expectation of policy easing, it is expected that iron ore will show a volatile trend [2]. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3076 | - 55 | - 1.76 | 7376676 | 3023524 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3181 | - 61 | - 1.88 | 2551563 | 1360193 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 699.0 | - 9.0 | - 1.27 | 1978390 | 566874 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 952.5 | 60.0 | 6.72 | 2128415 | 501104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1552.5 | 30.5 | 2.00 | 126152 | 47129 | Yuan/ton | [3] Market Review - The iron ore futures fluctuated and adjusted last week. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 755 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 614 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 141 yuan/ton [5]. - On the demand side, the number of blast furnace restarts was equivalent to that of overhauls last week, downstream steel purchases were stable, supporting steel mill operations, and hot metal production remained at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.56 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 54.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.50 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 240.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10 tons but a year - on - year increase of 13.90 tons [5]. - On the supply side, affected by previous shipments, the number of arriving ships increased last week, and the arrival volume stopped decreasing and started to increase. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 24.348 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 418,000 tons. The Australian shipment volume was 17.063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.763 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 232,000 tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 7.285 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons. The global iron ore shipment volume this period was 29.077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 142,000 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 145.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8102 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2231 million tons, a decrease of 80,400 tons [6]. Industry News - On April 13, the People's Bank of China announced the financial data for March. At the end of March 2025, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.0%, the same as the previous month. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, 1.5 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month. In terms of social financing, at the end of March 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 422.96 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month [10]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year; the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 6.5% year - on - year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the whole of last year; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.1 percentage points faster; and fixed - asset investment increased by 4.2% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage point faster [10]. - According to customs data, in the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 10.3 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, exceeding 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Among them, exports were 6.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%; imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 6% [10]. - Rio Tinto reported that in the first quarter of 2025, the iron ore production of its Pilbara operations was 69.8 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 19% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The iron ore shipment volume of its Pilbara operations in the first quarter was 70.7 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 17% and a year - on - year decrease of 9% [10]. - Vale reported that in the first quarter of 2025, its total iron ore production was 67.664 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 20.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%; the total iron ore sales volume was 66.141 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 18.5% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and shipment volume of iron ore, steel products, etc., including the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production and inventory, and iron ore shipment and arrival volume [8][11][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of fluctuating oil prices and rising gold prices, emphasizing the need for measures to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in China [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Measures - The Chinese government is focusing on increasing counter-cyclical adjustments to stabilize employment, foreign trade, and consumption, while enhancing domestic demand and improving quality [1][6]. - The government aims to support foreign investment and promote effective investment in various sectors, including services like elderly care and tourism [6]. Group 2: Oil Market - The SC night market saw a 0.33% increase in oil prices, with OPEC announcing further production cuts from several countries to compensate for previous overproduction [2][11]. - The new compensation plan requires seven countries to reduce daily production by 369,000 barrels from now until June 2026, with monthly reductions ranging from 196,000 to 520,000 barrels [2][11]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market was closed, and the previous trading day saw a slight decline in stock indices, with a total trading volume of 0.95 trillion yuan [3][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.413 billion yuan to 1.798997 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing US-China tariff negotiations [3][9]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market speculation and concerns over inflation, with the potential for the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing [4][19]. - The article highlights the increasing risks of recession and the challenges posed by US debt, contributing to the strong performance of gold [4][19]. Group 5: International Trade - The World Trade Organization reported that US tariff policies have severely worsened global trade prospects, predicting a 0.2% decline in global goods trade volume by 2025 [5]. - In North America, exports are expected to drop by 12.6% due to the current tariff situation [5]. Group 6: Agricultural Trade - China and Brazil are enhancing agricultural trade interactions in response to US tariffs, focusing on the export of Brazilian soybeans and beef [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: The impact of tariffs on global commodity demand and domestic steel exports remains highly uncertain, but iron ore prices have already reflected a rather pessimistic outlook. The 09 contract dropped to a minimum of 670.5 yuan/ton last week, corresponding to a US dollar index of around 85, indicating an annual iron ore surplus of about 30 million tons. In the first half of the year, the supply - demand balance of iron ore won't be very loose, with a slight inventory build - up at ports expected according to the balance sheet. With the expectation of tariff relaxation and domestic policy support, iron ore prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound [7]. - This week's price trend: Iron ore prices rose first and then fell this week, mainly driven by finished steel. Given the weak export outlook and the potential short - term peak in domestic demand, the market is trading on the logic of macro - expectations and fundamental production cuts [7]. - This week's view: Vale and Rio Tinto released their quarterly production and sales reports, showing a year - on - year decline in Q1 production with no change in production targets. Recently, shipments from non - mainstream mines have decreased. In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable. Against the backdrop of a high basis and pre - holiday steel mill restocking, it is suitable for long positions. However, the pressure on single - sided positions lies in finished steel. Although the inventory reduction speed of rebar and hot - rolled coils is good this period, market concerns about exports are still obvious due to tariff frictions. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Tariff impact on demand and exports is uncertain, but iron ore prices reflected pessimism. The 09 contract hit a low, suggesting an annual surplus. First - half supply - demand is not overly loose, and prices may rebound with tariff and policy expectations [7]. - This week's price movement: Prices fluctuated due to finished steel, and the market traded on macro and production - cut logics [7]. - This week's view: Quarterly reports showed production decline, non - mainstream shipments decreased. Short - term fundamentals are okay, suitable for long positions with basis and restocking factors. Single - sided pressure comes from finished steel, and an arbitrage strategy is recommended [7]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights 3.2.1 Shipment - The total global iron ore shipment this period was 29.077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,200 tons. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased significantly. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons, and then increased by 418,000 tons in another comparison. Australian shipments were 17.063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, with shipments to China increasing by 232,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.285 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.255 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.368 million tons [10]. 3.2.2 Demand - The daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons. The resumption speed of steel mills has slowed down, and the first - half peak of pig iron output may be around 2.43 million tons. Steel apparent demand continued to increase, and the inventory reduction speed was acceptable. However, seasonally, the demand peak is likely to occur from late April to early May, and the future steel export outlook is poor, so iron ore demand faces downward pressure [13]. 3.2.3 Port Inventory - The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.0951 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,400 tons. The port inventory was 140.56 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8502 million tons, indicating continued inventory reduction. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 90.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 242,100 tons [16]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts 3.3.1 Spot Price and Basis - Data shows the prices and price changes of Qingdao Port PB powder, Super Special powder, and the basis over several days in April 2025 [21]. 3.3.2 Variety Spread - Multiple charts show the price differences between different iron ore varieties such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba powder, PB lump, etc. over the years from 2021 - 2025 [24][25][27]. 3.3.5 Pig Iron Output - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and daily average pig iron output data are presented, showing changes over time. For example, on April 18, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.04% [36].

Report Information - Report Title: Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report - Report Date: April 18, 2025 - Research Institute: Huajin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints Iron Ore - Overseas shipments are generally at normal levels,非主流 shipments are declining, and domestic iron concentrate production is stable. Steel mill profits are good, and hot metal production is expected to remain high. Port inventories are gradually decreasing, and there is a short - term upward impulse before the holiday, but medium - term pressure remains [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicle numbers are stable, with obvious supply surplus. Coke prices have increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time, but coking profits are still negative. Futures and spot prices lack continuous rebound momentum, and attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [45]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Overseas Supply - Australian and Brazilian shipments are at normal levels, with a decline of 41.8 tons to 2434.8 tons this period. Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments are continuously decreasing, dropping 56 tons to about 472.9 tons this week. Second - quarter arrivals are expected to be at an average level [6]. Four Major Mines' Shipments - Fortescue's Q4 2024 iron ore shipments reached 48.9 million tons, a 3.56% quarter - on - quarter increase, with a 2025 fiscal year shipment target of 190 - 200 million tons. Vale's Q1 2025 iron ore production was 67.66 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 325 - 335 million tons. Rio Tinto's Q1 2025 iron ore production was 69.77 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 323 - 338 million tons. BHP's FY25 Q3 Pilbara iron ore production was 67.8 million tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 282 - 294 million tons [16]. Demand - This week, hot metal production remained stable at about 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio declined, and the port clearance volume remained high, with downstream replenishment on demand [21]. Inventory - Sinter powder inventories are at normal levels, and port total inventories decreased by 2.8502 million tons to 140.56 million tons this week. Steel mill imported sinter powder inventories increased by 0.1831 million tons to 12.6678 million tons [27][30]. Futures and Spot Structure - Futures and spot prices are in a low - level shock, with far - month prices at a large discount to spot prices, indicating weak expected demand. Before May Day, the pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness is expected to continue [33]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US is expected to enter a recession, CPI is generally falling, and tariff issues are causing market sentiment fluctuations. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the US dollar index is under continuous downward pressure [40]. Relationship with Non - Mainstream Region Shipments - Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments are continuously decreasing, and there is a certain relationship between them and iron ore prices [44]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - Hot metal production is expected to remain high. Coke prices increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time this week, and there is an expectation of a second increase next week, with coke profits recovering [51]. Coking Coal Inventory - Independent coking plant coking coal inventories increased by 0.1044 million tons to 9.7613 million tons, and steel mill coking coal inventories increased by 0.046 million tons to about 7.8423 million tons. Port imported coking coal inventories decreased by 0.1154 million tons to 3.3738 million tons, and mine clean coal inventories are at a high level [54][59]. Coking Coal Term Structure - Due to obvious supply surplus, all contracts are continuously falling, and downstream purchasing willingness is poor, with no obvious inflection point in the short term [63]. Coke Inventory - Coke prices increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time, with negative but recovering profits. Independent coking plant production is at a low level, inventories are decreasing, and port inventories have reached a high level for the same period [66]. Coke Term Structure - Coke futures prices are continuously falling, spot prices are in a low - level shock. There are rumors of further price increases, the basis has narrowed, but it still shows a premium structure [75].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation, which may lead to more cautious monetary policies and increased market volatility [13]. - The US economic slowdown and the impact of export restrictions on corporate earnings may cause the stock market to remain weak [21]. - In the bond market, the overall situation is bullish before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven, but the upward trend may be volatile [24]. - In the commodity market, most commodities are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing weak or volatile trends [25][33][53]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US retail sales in March increased by 1.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since January 2023. Powell said that tariff policies are likely to stimulate a temporary rise in inflation [12][13]. - Gold prices reached a new high, and the stock market declined significantly. The tariff issue is the main trading logic in the market, and risk - aversion sentiment drives funds into gold [13]. - Short - term market sentiment is over - bullish, and risks need to be noted [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - As of February, 14 US states had more unemployed people than job vacancies, the highest in 14 years. The US may relax the repayment requirements for Ukraine's aid [14][15]. - Powell is worried that the Fed may be caught between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. The market risk appetite has weakened, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Powell reiterated that the Fed will wait and see before taking action. The H20 chip of NVIDIA faces a cost of $5.5 billion due to export restrictions [19][20]. - The market risk appetite has deteriorated, and the stock index is expected to remain weak [21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's GDP in Q1 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 104.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.44 billion yuan on the day [23][24]. - Although economic indicators in Q1 showed signs of stabilization, there are still challenges in the future. The bond market is in a bullish trend before the expectations of interest rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are disproven [24]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - BHP's iron ore production in Q1 2025 was 67.844 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Iron ore prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 15 increased by 7.05% month - on - month. The short - term trend of the oil market is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [27][28]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's infrastructure investment from January to March increased by 5.8% year - on - year. Steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to factors such as tariffs and weak demand [29][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has continued to decline, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The terminal demand is not optimistic [35]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory in northern ports has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The price of old - crop corn may be driven up after the May 05 contract delivery [37]. 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Overseas alumina market transactions are active, and prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [38][39]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Santa Cruz copper project has obtained financing intentions, and establishing a joint venture may be a way to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine [40][41]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to conduct band trading [42]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Junda Co., Ltd.'s Q1 revenue decreased by 49.52% year - on - year, with a net loss. The polysilicon price may be under pressure, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the PS2507 contract [43][44]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - A new industrial silicon project in Shaanxi is under environmental assessment. The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short positions [45][46]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Jiuwu Hi - tech and Zhongke Chun cui signed a strategic cooperation agreement. Lithium prices may stabilize in the short term, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered in the medium - term [47][48]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some lead alloy smelting enterprises have reduced production by 30%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and hold long positions [50]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Zhuzhou Smelter Group's zinc production in 2024 was 642,500 tons, and Luoping Zinc & Electricity plans to produce 80,000 tons of zinc ingots in 2025 [51][52]. - Zinc prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [53]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has adjusted the nickel ore royalty. Nickel prices may be supported, and it is recommended to look for long - buying opportunities at low prices [54][56]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price of LPG in Shandong decreased. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends and reduce risk exposure [57][58]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased slightly. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [59][60]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices decreased, and the basis strengthened. The long - term impact of tariffs on the textile and clothing industry is negative [61][62]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. The supply has increased, and the demand is fair. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. It is recommended to wait and see due to the macro - impact [64][66]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder is slightly weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and domestic stimulus policies [67]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene enterprise inventories decreased. The potential impact on demand may not be fully priced in, and the valuation has room to decline [68][70]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventories increased. The market is affected by supply and demand, and the 05 contract may be under pressure [71][72]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. With the increase in supply and the possible decline in photovoltaic glass production, it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [73]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. The near - month contract may be under pressure, and it is recommended to buy far - month contracts on dips [74].