Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: The overall cotton market is recovering, but faces upward pressure. Short - term cotton prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but are expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [1][2][3] - **Sugar**: Short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. The market is influenced by factors such as Brazilian inventory, northern hemisphere exports, and Chinese import policies. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic [4][5][6] - **Pulp**: Despite overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly. Pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: Cotton 2605 futures closed at 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.20%). Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,832 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton. National average price was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton. In November 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales increased by 7.54% year - on - year and 0.88% month - on - month. The cumulative retail sales from January to November 2025 increased by 5.65% year - on - year [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA in January lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose. US cotton export sign - up progress is slow, putting short - term pressure on ICE cotton. Domestically, China's cotton production in the 25/26 season increased significantly, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Pre - festival stocking led to good spot sales, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventory is high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - term prices are supported by pre - festival stocking, but face downstream transmission and price - difference pressures, expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on policy implementation [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: Sugar 2605 futures closed at 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+1.35%). In Nanning, Guangxi, the spot price was 5,320 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. In Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,190 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. As of January 28, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 54, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7826 million tons, up 0.1 million tons (0.56%) from the previous week [4] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures trended strongly. The tight trade flow in the first quarter supports raw sugar, while it will ease in the second quarter. In the long run, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area may shrink. In China, Guangxi's sugar mills are in the peak - crushing period, and import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high. However, the import volume of syrup has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, with limited downward space [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Short - to - medium - term sugar prices should be treated with an oscillating - bottom - building mindset, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [6] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: Pulp 2605 futures closed at 5,388 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%). In Shandong, the spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood - pulp spot market price was generally stable, with weak downstream follow - up [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures fluctuated narrowly. Supply - side factors such as overseas mill shutdowns and rising foreign quotes pushed up pulp prices, but the global wood - pulp inventory is still accumulating. In terms of demand, European port pulp inventory decreased in November, and domestic terminal demand is insufficient, with port inventory at a historical high [6] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, domestic fundamentals have not improved, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [6]

Group 1: Report Core View - The absolute price of soybean meal is relatively low. Recently, affected by weather speculation in Argentina and logistics congestion in Brazil, the futures market has been strong. However, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area in February, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion will shift the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums later. There is no condition for a significant unilateral upward trend. Currently, the domestic purchase and shipping profit is at a high level. From the perspective of profit, the valuation of the soybean meal futures is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up unilaterally. The domestic supply and demand is expected to be loose in the first quarter, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [13] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - On January 29th, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 438, in Tianjin was 378 (down 20), in Rizhao was 318 (down 20), in Zhangjiagang was 328 (down 10), in Dongguan was 318 (down 20), in Zhanjiang was 348 (down 20), and in Fangcheng was 338 (down 20). The basis of rapeseed meal in Yue was 147 (down 24). M3 - 5 was 294 (down 4), and RM5 - 9 was - 8 [4] Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 477 (down 8), and the futures spread of the main contract was not clearly stated in the text [5] Inventory Data - The text shows the inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean meal, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal, but specific data on January 29th is not clearly summarized [5][7][8] Other Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9146, and the futures crushing profit was 153 yuan/ton. The text also shows the CNF premium trend chart of soybeans in 2025 and the futures crushing profit chart of imported soybeans in 2025 [5]

2026 年 1 月 30 日 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面跟随商品市场情绪波动 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4436 +61 | （+1.39%） 4419 | +4（+0.09%） | | | | | | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2802 | +25（+0.90%） 2783 | -15（-0.54%） | | | | | | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1072 | -2.75（-0.26%） | | | | | | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 295.9 | -1.7（-0.57%） | n a | | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for each individual futures variety, it gives a short - term view: - **Bullish**: Bean meal (short - term shock bullish), Rapeseed meal (stop - falling and rebounding), Palm oil (short - term rise), Soybean oil (short - term rise), Rapeseed oil (short - term rebound), Cotton (strong operation) - **Bearish**: Red dates (pressured operation), Live pigs (shock weak) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Bean Meal**: Influenced by drought in Argentine soybean regions, positive outlook on US soybean exports to China, and US biodiesel policy expectations, the US soybean market sentiment is positive. But due to state - reserve sales, pre - stocked feed enterprises, and improved soybean crushing margins, the upward movement of bean meal will face spot hedging pressure. It should be treated bullishly, but chasing the rise requires caution [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: January saw zero rapeseed imports, with an average of 120,000 tons per month in February and March, much lower than the same period last year. Short - term supply of rapeseed meal is tight, but trading is light in the off - season. The US - Canada trade fluctuations may affect Sino - Canadian trade negotiations. Although rapeseed meal continued to rise, there are signs of large - scale rapeseed procurement, so chasing the rise requires caution [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Italy's new bio - fuel regulations removing palm oil import restrictions are bullish. Malaysian palm oil production decreased significantly in the first 25 days of January. Although export data increased month - on - month, there is still a risk of inventory build - up in January. With the recent rise approaching previous highs, chasing the rise requires caution [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Domestic soybean oil inventory is in a stage of de - stocking. The weather in Argentina and the US biodiesel policy are favorable for US soybean oil. The domestic market continued to rise, but chasing the rise after continuous increases requires caution [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Due to the US - Canada relationship fluctuations, Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policies may change again, and the market sentiment is bullish. With tight domestic supply, rapeseed oil is in a short - term rebound. Pay attention to the progress of rapeseed procurement and the US - Canada trade situation [1]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton market rebounded after digesting macro - negatives. In 2026, the new cotton narrative will gradually develop in the first quarter. Domestically, new cotton processing is almost complete, and the sales progress has rebounded, but raw material inventory pressure is increasing. The demand side is in a weakening stage, and the upward movement lacks fundamental support in the short - term. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a positive outlook due to planting compression and restocking expectations [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: The spot market is flat, and with the peak of new product listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the futures price fluctuates more. High - inventory de - stocking may drive a short - term rebound, but in general, the overall trend is pressured [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: As the end of January approaches, the pressure of increasing slaughter volume is rising, and it is more difficult to support prices. The demand for stocking is expected to start this week, and the previous situation of weak supply and demand will gradually turn into a situation of strong supply and demand. The near - term contracts face increasing pressure, and the far - term contracts are also under pressure due to the under - expected reduction of breeding sows [1][17]. 3. Summary by Variety Bean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,802 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,201.43 yuan/ton, up 5.14 yuan or 0.16% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 were 3.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 188%. Drought in Argentina, positive outlook on US soybean exports to China, and US biodiesel policy expectations are positive factors, while state - reserve sales and pre - stocked feed enterprises are negative factors [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,325 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 1.22% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,632.11 yuan/ton, up 19.48 yuan or 0.75% [4]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: As of the 4th week of 2026, coastal oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, and the national total inventory was 416,400 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons from the previous week. There are signs of increased imports from Australia and Canada, but short - term supply is still tight [6]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9,362 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan or 0.99% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,370 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 1.19% [7]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: India aims to reduce its dependence on palm oil imports. In January 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased significantly, and export data increased month - on - month, but there is still a risk of inventory build - up [8]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 closed at 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan or 1.07% [9]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: Internationally, Brazil and Turkey are expected to reduce cotton production in 2026. Domestically, new cotton processing is almost complete, inventory is increasing year - on - year, import volume has increased, and demand is in a weakening stage [10][11]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 closed at 8,895 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan or 0.74% from the previous day. Spot prices in major producing areas remained stable [13]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: Market arrivals are mainly low - grade products. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased week - on - week but was still higher than the same period last year [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,165 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan or 0.93% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 12,460 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan or 1.66% [16]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The supply side faces increasing pressure of slaughter volume, and the secondary fattening has increased supply pressure. The demand side is expected to start stocking this week [17].

Group 1: Protein Meal - CBOT soybean prices experienced a slight decline due to expectations of a bumper harvest in Brazil, with the Brazilian soybean production expected to reach record levels and exports projected at 110 million tons, a 6.7% increase from the previous year [2] - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association reported that soybean exports in January are expected to be 3.23 million tons, lower than the earlier forecast of 3.79 million tons [2] - Domestic protein meal showed strong fluctuations, supported by pre-holiday stocking demand, although arbitrage funds limited the price increase [2] Group 2: Oilseeds - BMD palm oil reached a three-month high, driven by rising commodity and crude oil prices, with increased geopolitical risks contributing to the price surge [3] - Domestic oilseed prices rose, with palm oil leading the increase, followed by soybean oil and rapeseed oil, supported by higher import costs and bullish market sentiment [3] - The market is characterized by mixed long and short positions, with prices showing strong fluctuations [3] Group 3: Live Pigs - The main live pig futures contract fell by 0.93%, closing at 11,165 yuan per ton, with the average price of live pigs in China at 12.34 yuan per kilogram, down 0.22 yuan from the previous day [4] - Increased supply from the breeding sector and weak demand led to a surplus, causing pig prices to continue declining [4] - The long-term trend of pig production capacity reduction remains unchanged, with attention on the pace of capacity reduction and potential opportunities in future contracts [4] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures broke the weekly fluctuation range and experienced a pullback, with the main contract down by 0.89%, closing at 3,021 yuan per 500 kilograms [12] - The national average egg price was 3.99 yuan per pound, with slight fluctuations in various markets [12] - The market is stable with some adjustments, and there is a warning of potential price declines as stocking approaches completion [12] Group 5: Corn - The main corn futures contract saw a reduction in positions, with limited fund inflows for the May and September contracts, leading to price declines [5] - High purchase prices in the northern ports and strong processing prices in production areas provided some support to market prices [5] - The overall pace of grain sales remains slow compared to the previous year, with stable prices in the sales regions [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having their own characteristics and outlooks. Some commodities are expected to be volatile and bullish, some are volatile and bearish, and some are in a state of shock [1][6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Market Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: The upward trend of oils and fats continues. Due to the warm macro - environment, positive mid - term fundamental sentiment, and continuous capital inflows, oils and fats futures continued to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging after corrections and the arbitrage strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil. The outlook is that soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all volatile and bullish [6][7]. - **Protein Meal**: The reduction of short positions in double meals pushed up the market. At the end of the stocking period, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. Overseas soybean supply is expected to increase, while domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and downstream stocking is coming to an end. The outlook is that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will fluctuate [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market stopped falling and fluctuated. Downstream stocking is approaching the end, and the market is in a tight balance. The short - term market has a ceiling and a floor, with limited upward momentum [10][11]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand are loose, and hog prices are weak. In the short term, there is pressure from concentrated supply before the Spring Festival; in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026. The outlook is volatile and bearish [12][13]. - **Natural Rubber**: It strongly broke through the previous high, and the rubber price continued to rise. It is mainly driven by the macro - environment, with no significant change in fundamentals. The outlook is that the fundamentals have limited variables, and the market is volatile and bullish [1][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous driving force has eased. The BR market mainly followed the rise of natural rubber, and the mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The outlook is that it is volatile and bullish in the medium term after short - term adjustment [17][18]. - **Cotton**: The position decreased, but the price was firm. The fundamentals have not changed much recently, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium and long term, while the short - term upward height may be limited [18]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure. The global raw sugar market in the 2025/26 crushing season is likely to have a supply surplus, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [19]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are weak, and the market is in a horizontal fluctuation. The demand for pulp is decreasing seasonally, and there are more bearish factors. The outlook is volatile and bearish [20][21]. - **Double - offset Paper**: It fluctuates in a narrow range. The market supply pressure exists, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [22][23]. - **Logs**: The external market price is expected to rise, and logs are volatile and bullish. There are marginal positive drivers in the log market, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [25]. 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index showed an upward trend on January 29, 2026. The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index), and the agricultural product index all had positive growth rates [186][187].

Report Industry Investment Rating No mention in the report Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the start of the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space of sugar price may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic outlook, there is still room for cotton price to rise. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the price of rapeseed meal rebounded. The January USDA report data is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. From the weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [12] - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, the price of oils and fats rose significantly yesterday. In addition, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats has been decreasing month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving. Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17] - For eggs, the pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand is about to meet expectations. The near - month contracts have post - festival attributes and may fluctuate mainly. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end has a long - term positive expectation due to the peak of production capacity, but after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [19] - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference support the limited short - term decline of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release lead to the early weakening of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals is revised down. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [22] Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,257 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 1.35% from the previous trading day. The quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,290 - 5,370 yuan/ton, up 40 - 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output reached 15.909 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 22%. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 to 518 compared with the same period last year [2][3] - **Strategy**: Wait and see for now [4] Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated at a high level. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,103 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. As of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, flat compared with the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast of US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. Brazil's production forecast remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; India's production was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 166,000 tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,100 tons [5][6][7] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,802 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 0.72% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,325 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 1.22% from the previous trading day. The spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was 3,120 yuan/ton, flat compared with the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was 2,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons. Among them, the export of soybeans to China in that week was 1.3 million tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.42 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. The January 2025/26 global soybean production forecast was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast of US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast of Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast of Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, flat compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly revised down by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [10][11] - **Strategy**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out [12] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,382 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,362 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,446 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan/ton or 1.24% from the previous trading day. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. From January 1 to 20, the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and maintained the current B40 plan. The January US soybean oil consumption forecast was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [14][16] - **Strategy**: Wait for a pullback and then try to go long [17] Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the national egg price was generally stable with slight increases. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.01 yuan to 3.97 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained at 3.62 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion slowed down, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that the national egg price will remain stable in the short - term, and there may be narrow adjustments in a few areas [18] - **Strategy**: The near - month contracts may fluctuate mainly, and pay attention to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end has a long - term positive expectation, but pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [19] Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally continued to decline. The average price in Henan fell 0.23 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.2 yuan to 12.27 yuan/kg. The slaughtering enthusiasm of farmers remained high. In some areas, the slaughtering progress was lagging behind, so they accelerated the slaughtering. The demand side may have stocking sentiment due to the approaching weekend, but the increase may be lower than expected. The pig price may continue to decline, and the decline may narrow slightly [21] - **Strategy**: There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [22]

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a mixed performance in agricultural futures, with soybean futures declining while corn and wheat futures experienced gains [1] Group 1: Agricultural Futures Performance - Soybean futures fell by 0.28%, closing at 1072.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures increased by 0.23%, closing at 431.00 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures rose by 1.07%, closing at 541.75 cents per bushel [1]

据期货日报记者了解，系列期权并不是指某一种全新的期权品种，而是在未覆盖12个到期月份的常规期 权合约的基础上，补充增挂的月度期权合约，是与常规期权基于同一标的期货合约，以实现期权合约月 月有到期。 作为重要的农产品原料，豆粕和玉米在畜牧业、粮油加工及食品工业中占据核心地位。近年来，受全球 地缘政治、极端天气及供需格局变化等因素影响，豆粕和玉米市场短期波动风险突出，产业客户对精细 化的短期套保工具需求日益迫切。此前，大商所已成功推出豆粕、玉米期货及对应的常规期权工具，市 场运行平稳，功能发挥良好。而此次推出的系列期权，将与现有的常规期权、标的期货形成互补，实现 12个月份到期合约的全周期覆盖，有效破解实体企业短期套保工具不足、交易成本偏高的痛点，更好满 足不同规模企业的个性化避险需求。 与常规期权、标的期货形成互补，实现12个月份到期合约全覆盖 1月30日夜盘交易时段，大连商品交易所（以下简称大商所）豆粕、玉米系列期权将正式挂牌交易。此 举标志着我国农产品衍生品体系进一步完善，将为农业产业链上下游企业提供更加精细化、多元化的短 期风险管理工具。 大商所相关业务负责人介绍，本次豆粕、玉米系列期权的推出，交易所充分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed trend. Sugar, palm oil, cotton, and soybean meal are expected to be bullish, while live pigs and eggs are likely to decline. Specifically, sugar prices are boosted by a bullish commodity market atmosphere, cost support, and strong year - end demand; palm oil benefits from rising crude oil prices and favorable supply - demand data; cotton is supported by expected supply reduction and strong demand; soybean meal is driven by rising US soybean prices and downstream stocking demand. On the other hand, live pig prices are pressured by high production capacity and weak demand, and egg prices are affected by high supply and potential weakening demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Sugar prices have risen strongly and are expected to remain strong in the future due to a bullish commodity market atmosphere, cost support, and strong year - end demand [1]. - Palm oil has continuously reached new highs, and its uptrend is expected to continue, supported by rising crude oil prices and favorable supply - demand data in the producing areas [1]. - Cotton has resumed its upward trend after a short adjustment, with expected supply reduction in the long - term and strong demand supporting the price increase [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Sugar - The main SR2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has broken through and risen, driven by a bullish commodity market atmosphere and short - covering. Domestic new sugar is being released in an orderly manner, but some producing areas have a high crushing rate but a low sugar yield, and the production is lower than the same period last year. At the same time, the rising cost of sugar production and relatively strong year - end demand support the sugar futures price. On January 29, the transaction price of Guangxi sugar reached 5,285 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - The technical indicators of the main SR2605 contract are turning strong, with the price breaking through 5,200 and standing above the 20 - day moving average. The MACD shows a sign of a golden cross. The strategy is to close short positions and enter long positions at support levels during market fluctuations [2]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The main P2605 contract of palm oil has continued to rise strongly and reached a new high in 3.5 months, supported by rising crude oil prices and favorable supply - demand data from the producing areas. High - frequency data shows that from January 1 to 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.97% month - on - month, while production decreased by 14%. Malaysia's seasonal production decline and India's pre - Ramadan stocking demand have strengthened the expectation of inventory reduction in the producing areas [3]. - The technical indicators of the P2605 contract are strong, with the moving averages in a bullish arrangement and the MACD red bar expanding. The strategy is to enter long positions with a light position on dips, with support levels at 9,270 - 9,300 [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main LH2603 contract of live pigs has continued to decline, affected by weak technical indicators and high slaughter pressure from the breeding side. Official data shows that the存栏 of breeding sows at the end of 2025 was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal reserve. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter window for breeders is narrowing, increasing the daily slaughter pressure of large - scale pig enterprises. The demand side has not improved significantly, and the purchasing power of slaughterhouses is limited [5]. - The technical indicators of the LH2603 contract are weak, with the price falling below the moving average system and the MACD green bar expanding after a death cross. The strategy is to enter short positions with a light position at resistance levels [5]. 3.2.4 Eggs - The main JD2603 contract of eggs has continued to decline in a volatile manner, affected by high production capacity on the supply side and changes in pre - festival demand. Although the spot price of eggs has risen due to Spring Festival stocking, the futures price has weakened because the egg - laying hen inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years. As schools are on holiday, the demand for eggs from food factories may decline, limiting the upside of the spot price [7]. - The technical indicators of the JD2603 contract are weak, with the price falling below the moving averages and the MACD red bar continuously shrinking. The strategy is to stop - loss and close long positions and turn to short - selling on rallies, setting stop - losses [7]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The main M2605 contract of soybean meal has risen strongly and stood above the 2,800 mark, driven by rising US soybean prices and downstream stocking demand. The price of US soybeans has risen due to weather speculation in Argentina, driving up the domestic soybean meal price. Before the Spring Festival, feed and breeding enterprises have continued stocking demand, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills will continue to decline. As of the fourth weekend of this year, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 906,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.35% [9]. - The technical indicators of the M2605 contract are strong, with the price breaking through 2,800 and standing above the moving average system, and the MACD red bar expanding after a golden cross. The strategy is to enter long positions with a light position, with support levels at 2,784 - 2,790 [9]. 3.2.6 Cotton - The main CF2605 contract of cotton has fluctuated slightly after a sharp rise the previous day, but its strength remains unchanged. The expected significant reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has strengthened the long - term production reduction expectation, and favorable policies have boosted domestic demand. Before the Spring Festival, textile enterprises have certain stocking needs, and the demand side is relatively strong. The orders for high - count yarns are in high demand and short in supply, and the operating rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains above 90%. The decrease in cotton imports also supports the cotton price [11]. - The technical indicators of the CF2605 contract are strong, with the price breaking through the recent volatile range and resuming the upward trend, and fluctuating above the moving average system. The MACD continues to shrink. The strategy is to enter long positions with a light position, with support levels at 14,750 - 14,800 [11].