| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/12/23 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7772 | 8414 | 8864 | 2741 | 2412 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 60 | 122 | 120 | 6 | 23 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.78% | 1.47% | -3.15% | 0.22% | 0.96% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 偏 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货窄幅震荡，截至夜盘收盘2603合约跌幅0.36%，收于2190元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价小幅上调。东北地区企业收购 | | | | | 均价2123元/吨，较上周五涨4元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2281元/吨，较上周五 | | | | | 涨1元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日南北港口价格弱稳为主。锦州港15%水二等玉米 | | | | | 收购价2240-2245元/吨，较上周五跌5元/吨；蛇口港散粮成交价2400元/吨，较上周 | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts. The pulp market is expected to be bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high [1]. - The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels. Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and US soybeans are expected to fluctuate [6][7]. - The corn and starch market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a weakening supply pressure expected in the second half of 2026 [8]. - The rubber price continued to fluctuate, and the market lacked strong driving forces [10][11]. - The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong, and the market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [12]. - The cotton price continued to strengthen, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the long term, but the near-term contracts are restricted by hedging pressure [13]. - The sugar price is searching for a bottom, and it is expected to be bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. - The double-offset paper market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17]. - The fundamentals of logs are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures significantly increased, and the supply-side positive factors were the main catalysts [1]. - **Logic**: Positive factors include the rising US dollar price of broadleaf pulp, the supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills, the potential production reduction of other softwood pulp mills, and the relatively high actual demand for pulp. Negative factors include the difficulty in cost transfer for downstream paper products, the seasonal decline in demand starting from January, and the abundant liquidity of softwood pulp in the spot market [1]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the short term, with the bottom of the futures price rising, and the probability of breaking below the low on December 1st is not high. The upper pressure level has shifted upward, with the 05 contract focusing on the pressure in the range of 5650 - 5750. The market is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. 3.2 Oils - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the oil market showed signs of stabilizing. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production and demand expectations of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Logic**: The US soybean market was bearish due to sufficient supply and concerns about Chinese demand. The South American soybean harvest is expected to be abundant. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased seasonally in December, and the probability of inventory reduction at the origin is high. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, but the supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the technical support at the bottom [5]. 3.3 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of soybean meal remained stable, and the futures price rebounded from oversold levels [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean production outlook is optimistic, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly before the South American weather speculation. Domestically, the state reserve soybean auctions increased the market supply pressure, the seasonal de-stocking of soybean and soybean meal was slow, and the downstream consumption was weak [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. The market is expected to be bearish in the short term [7]. 3.4 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The market lacked clear drivers and is expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Logic**: The upstream farmers are reluctant to sell, and the downstream enterprises have established a certain safety inventory. The market is in a tight balance state, and there are no major contradictions. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the old wheat auction and the rumor of state reserve release [7]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuation [7]. 3.5 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The overall supply of live pigs is abundant, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of large pigs is increasing. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand increased during the Winter Solstice, and the inventory weight increased [8]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the short term, with the price expected to fluctuate in a weak range. The far-month contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [8]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The rubber price continued to fluctuate [10]. - **Logic**: The market lacked strong driving forces, and the geopolitical speculation was difficult to verify. The overseas supply increased seasonally, and the raw material price was firm, but there was a certain downward pressure. The downstream demand was weak, and the market sentiment was bearish [11]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trending market [11]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the synthetic rubber market remained strong [12]. - **Logic**: The BR futures contract was favored by funds due to the marginal improvement in the butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price. The butadiene price fluctuated upward last week, and the inventory pressure was slightly relieved [12]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the medium term, but there is pressure at the upper level in the short term, and adjustment may be needed [12]. 3.8 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price continued to strengthen [13]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US cotton production decreased slightly, and the ICE cotton price had weak upward momentum. India's cotton production is expected to decrease for the second consecutive year, which may support the ICE cotton price. Domestically, the cotton supply and demand balance sheet is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory, but if the apparent demand continues to grow, the new crop may be in a tight balance, which will increase the cotton price valuation. The commercial inventory accumulation speed is slower than the listing speed, indicating good consumption. There is an expectation of a reduction in the planting area next year, and the slow registration speed of warehouse receipts is also positive for the cotton price [13]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the short term due to sentiment, but beware of callback risks. Bullish in the long term, and it is advisable to buy on dips [13]. 3.9 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is searching for a bottom [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is expected to remain high, and the global sugar market is expected to be oversupplied in the new season. Domestically, the sugar production in November decreased year-on-year, and the supply will increase marginally with the concentrated start of the sugar cane crushing season [14][15]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the medium and long term due to the expected oversupply in the global sugar market [14][15]. 3.10 Double-Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The market has no prominent contradictions and is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **Logic**: The supply pressure still exists, and the paper mills have a strong desire to raise prices due to continuous losses. The downstream demand is weak, and the market is in a weak balance state [17]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the short term, and attention should be paid to the potential upward movement of the market if the paper mills shut down due to high inventory and continuous losses [17]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, and there is support at the bottom [19]. - **Logic**: The port inventory continued to decline, and the spot price stabilized. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and the overseas shipping volume is expected to decrease in December and January. The 03 contract has relatively strong gaming characteristics [19]. - **Outlook**: Bullish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the reverse spread and long opportunities in the far-month contracts [19].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 中美豆采购开启，但美豆出口数据不佳，利空美盘市场情绪。南美天气降雨改善， | | 豆粕 | | 市场缺乏利多驱动。本周国内最新及豆粕库存环比减少改善，但同比偏高，12 月供 | | | 震荡偏空 | 应预计暂充足，但一季度进口预估同比下降，叠加美豆进口成本抬升，现货价格表 | | ★ | | 现抗跌。豆粕预计短线暂维持震荡偏弱行情。关注美豆出口情况及南美天气情况。 | | | | 沿海油厂菜籽零库存，零压榨，低进口，但港口库存依然同比偏高，仓单压力有所 | | 菜粕 | 震荡偏空 | 减轻。但全球丰产、进口多元化及消费淡季弱化看多预期。菜粕短期以跟随豆粕趋 | | ★ | | 势为主，关注澳籽进口政策及中加贸易后续进展。 | | | | 马棕榈油本月前 15 日出口数据环比下降，马政府对于 12 月马棕榈油累库预期的言 | | 棕榈油 | 震荡偏弱 | 论叠加下半月东南亚降雨表现一般的双重作用下，市场人气偏空，近期预计维持偏 | | ★ | | 弱震荡。由于东南亚逐步进入减产季，棕榈油追空操作需谨慎，关注调整后企稳反 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 l数据日报 | 指标 | | 12月19日 | 涨跌 | | ===== 16/17 | ====== 17/18 | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) ====== 18/19 | == | == | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 天津 | 97 57 | -3 7 | 2500 2000 1500 | ----- 21/22 | == | == | - 24/25 | - 25/26 | | | | | | 1000 | | | | | | | | 日照 | 17 | | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 57 | | -500 | | | 05/21 06/21 07/22 08/22 09/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 03/26 04/26 | | | | | 东莞 | 17 | 7 | | | | M1-M5 | | | | | 湛江 | 57 | | 1 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 22 日星期周一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 19 日，内外均弱，植物油板块反弹失败，豆油跌破振荡区间下沿，棕榈油无 | | | | | 力反弹，菜籽油空头延续。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约Y2605合约报收于7712元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌1.15%，日增仓11645 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7662 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.24%，日增 | | | | | 仓 2430 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8292 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.91%，日增 | | | | | 仓 24579 手； | | ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 报告导读： 截至 12 月 19 日当周，ICE 棉花维持低位波动，其中周二在原油下行和美棉出口数据持续不佳的情况 下，ICE 棉花 3 月合约一度跌破 63 美分/磅，不过受美国通胀数据提振降息预期以及空头回补影响，下半 周 ICE 棉花连续小幅反弹，收复了周二的大部分跌幅。目前来看，疲软的美棉出口数据使得 ICE 棉花仍然 缺乏上涨的驱动，不过由于基本面并没有新的利空，在外部市场风险偏好整体乐观的情况下，ICE 棉花暂 时守住了 63 美分/磅一线。 国内棉花期货和现货继续小幅走强，基差整体仍偏坚挺。相对稳定的高基差继续支撑棉花期货，不过 棉花仓单继续增加，而且新棉刚上市三个多月，2025/26 年度的国产棉的供应压力并没有完全释放，表现 为随着期价的上涨陆续有一些套保盘出现，这一定程度上限制了郑棉期货的上涨动能；另外下游的需求处 于淡季，对于全年的需求目前偏稳去看但是还需要持续观察，所以市场现在开始关注明年的种植情况可能 偏早了一些，春节后结合需求情况再讨论新年度的种植或更好。短期来看预计郑棉期货维持震荡偏强的走 势，但是上涨空间可能有限，注意现货基差的变化。 国 泰 君 安 期 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间12月19日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘表现分化，原糖期货涨 2.56%报14.85美分/磅，棉花期货涨0.22%报63.65美分/磅，可可期货跌1.42%报5850.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货跌1.13%报341.20美分/磅。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆粕: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 豆油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 棕榈油: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 菜粕: 一颗星代表偏空 [1] - 菜油: 一颗星代表偏空 [1] - 玉米: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 生猪: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] - 鸡蛋: 未明确体现趋势性评级 [1] Report's Core View - 农产品各品种走势分化，需关注各品种供需、政策、天气等因素变化，部分品种短期面临压力，部分品种策略上有偏空倾向 [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 豆一 - 豆一主力合约跳空下跌后盘整且移仓，本周四中储粮购销双向指卖底价3900元/吨，全部成交但成交价格较上次跌130元/吨，下周一计划竞价拍卖2.1万吨，短期供应压力环比增加，本周五进口大豆指卖成交比例和价格均下滑，需关注政策端表现 [2] 大豆&豆粕 - 今日进口大豆拍卖成交比例32.66%，成交均价3750.83元/吨，南美天气好转，拉尼娜明年一季度转ENSO中性概率68%，交易逻辑重回美豆出口担忧和南美丰产预期，美豆销售量近5年同期最低，期货价格跌回前期底部，豆粕价格追随美豆震荡，等待南美天气变化 [3] 豆油&棕榈油 - 今日进口大豆指卖成交比例和价格下滑，海外美豆油和马棕油疲弱，全球菜籽供需宽松带动豆棕油走弱，国内油脂延续疲弱，进口大豆拍卖频率提升带来短期供应压力，CBOT大豆市场忧虑美豆出口，中期南美天气是矛盾点，海外棕榈油马来西亚库存压力高，需谨慎后续产量降幅低于往年拉长高库存周期，短期注意油脂供需面压力 [4] 菜粕&菜油 - 菜系延续下跌，市场对中加关系预期转暖，全球菜籽供需宽松，加拿大菜籽出口多元化推进慢，期价下沉，澳大利亚菜籽将压榨，市场对放开商业购买有预期，菜系焦点在进口端，关注政策变数，策略偏空 [6] 玉米 - 东北及北港玉米现货价格下行，东北农户惜售减弱，下游对高价粮观望，华北采购积极性降温，阶段性供需错配缓解，关注东北售粮进度和拍卖情况，短期大连玉米期货03合约高位震荡偏弱 [7] 生猪 - 生猪期货小幅反弹，现货冬至备货结束价格回落，从能繁母猪存栏推算春节后出栏处高峰，需求为淡季，预计春节后猪价二次探底，03、05合约期价偏空，春节前关注供应端出栏和去库情况 [8] 鸡蛋 - 春节后2、3、4月合约受打压，2月合约创新低，资金增仓超2万手，市场忧虑高存栏和需求淡季对价格施压，中长期基本面改善，当前处于牛熊转折期，后期存栏有望下降，盘面关注节奏和预期差 [9]