Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

行 业 及 产 业 食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 05 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20250630-20250704 相关研究 《保持耐心 静待时机——食品饮料行业周 报 20250623-20250627》 2025/06/28 《保持耐心 静待时机——食品饮料行业周 报 20250616-20250620》 2025/06/21 《 白酒批价下行 食品将表现分化—— 食 品饮料行业周报 20250609-20250613 》 2025/06/14 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 严泽楠 A0230524090001 yanzn@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 (8621)23297818× wangza@swsresearch.com ⚫ 投资分析意见：传统消费的头部企业经过调整，从分红和股息角度已具备长期 投资价值； ...

Core Insights - The IWSR report indicates a significant restructuring in the Asia-Pacific alcoholic beverage market, with an overall slowdown in growth, particularly in China where baijiu sales have declined by 5% while gin sales surged by 20% [1][6] Group 1: Market Overview - The total beverage alcohol (TBA) volume in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to decrease by 2% in 2024, with a 3% decline in total value [2] - Major categories such as beer (-3%), spirits (-2%), and wine (-4%) have all experienced value declines, while ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages saw a slight increase in sales (+1%) [2] - India stands out with a TBA growth of 6%, driven by a 19% increase in ultra-premium product consumption, contrasting sharply with China's 5% decline [2][5] Group 2: Regional Performance - The Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam recorded a TBA growth of 2%, while Japan (-1%), South Korea (-1%), and Australia (-3%) faced declines [2] - The Indian market is benefiting from a recent UK-India free trade agreement, which will significantly reduce import tariffs on Scotch whisky and British gin, fostering growth in these categories [5] Group 3: Category-Specific Trends - In India, there is a notable increase in the consumption of Irish whiskey (+58%) and vodka (+17%), indicating a shift in consumer preferences beyond traditional whiskey [5] - In China, the decline in key categories such as baijiu (-5%), cognac (-14%), and Scotch whisky (-8%) is attributed to reduced formal consumption occasions [6][8] - Gin and vodka are benefiting from the rising cocktail culture, with gin sales increasing by 20% and vodka by 4% in China [6] Group 4: Future Projections - IWSR forecasts that from 2024 to 2034, beer sales in China will remain stable, while RTDs are expected to grow at a CAGR of 2%, and sparkling wine at +5% [9] - The report predicts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% for Scotch whisky and 3% for gin in India from 2024 to 2029 [5] - The overall spirits category in the Asia-Pacific is expected to decline by 1% CAGR, but excluding baijiu, the growth rate is projected at +2% [9] Group 5: Wine and Beer Trends - The wine category in the Asia-Pacific region faced a 4% decline in 2024, an improvement from the 8% drop in 2023, with still wine and other wine categories contributing to the decrease [13] - Beer sales are expected to continue declining until 2026, with a projected recovery starting in 2027, particularly in India, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines [14][16] Group 6: RTD Growth - RTDs are positioned for strong growth in the coming years, primarily driven by Japan and Korea, with a projected CAGR of +3% from 2024 to 2029 [17] - Japan is expected to be a key driver for RTD growth, while China, Korea, and India are also anticipated to see increases in this category [17]

证券之星食品饮料行业周报：2025年6月30日-2025年7月4日，沪深300指数上涨1.54%，申万食品饮料指数上涨0.31%。前五大上涨个股分别为：煌上煌 （002695）、酒鬼酒（000799）、金字火腿（002515）、莫高股份（600543）、安记食品（603696）。 机构观点 国投证券本周观点(含个股)： 今年以来新消费(低度酒、饮料、零食、乳品)股价表现显著强于传统消费(白酒、啤酒)，股价上涨驱动为：1)渠道收入数据高增；2)新品起量预期。低基数及 原材料成本下降背景下，Q2食饮利润端压力不大，重点关注收入边际变化、产品结构、新品α。大众品配置优先级高于白酒。关注燕京啤酒（000729）、珠 江啤酒（002461）、万辰集团（300972）、卫龙美味、西麦食品（002956）、立高食品（300973）、新乳业（002946）、妙可蓝多（600882）、东鹏饮料 （605499）、李子园（605337）、莲花控股（600186）。 天风证券本周建议(含个股)： 【酒类板块】建议关注强α&持续享受集中度提升红利的酒类酒企：山西汾酒（600809）/贵州茅台（600519）/燕京啤酒等。 【大众品】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The departure of Hu Xiaohai, the chairman of China Resources Beer, has raised concerns about the company's future, especially as it faces declining revenues and profits for the first time in seven years [2][10]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Resources Beer reported a total revenue of 38.635 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.57%, and a net profit of 4.739 billion, down 8.03% [2][6]. - The beer segment generated revenue of 36.486 billion, a decline of 1% compared to the previous year, which had seen a 4.5% increase [6][10]. - The company has closed 36 breweries over the past nine years, reducing its workforce from 58,200 in 2016 to approximately 26,000 by the end of 2024, a decrease of over 50% [9]. Group 2: Leadership Changes - Hu Xiaohai, who joined China Resources Snow Beer in 2001 and held various leadership roles, including CEO and chairman, announced his resignation to focus on personal matters, confirming no disagreements with the board [2][6]. - Before his departure, Hu sold 93,800 shares, cashing out approximately 26.12 million Hong Kong dollars, reducing his holdings by 92% [21][23]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - The company's foray into the white liquor market has not yielded expected results, with the revenue from the white liquor segment, including brands like Jinsha, only reaching 2.149 billion, a mere 4% increase year-on-year [2][16]. - The acquisition of Jinsha for 12.3 billion has not yet recouped its investment, with current revenues falling significantly short of the target [16][18]. - The white liquor segment's performance has been hampered by a lack of successful brand strategy, with the main brand contributing 70% of revenue while the secondary brand struggles [18][20].

Core Insights - Chongqing Beer has been recognized as the only liquor brand from Chongqing in the first batch of "Chinese Consumer Famous Brands" selected by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in April this year [2] - Despite a 30% decline in beer production over the past decade and a mere 32% consumption share among Generation Z, Chongqing Beer managed to achieve a 1.93% increase in sales in Q1 2025, positioning itself among China's top five beer companies [2][5] - The company has a rich history, being one of the first beer manufacturers in New China, and has successfully launched high-end products like Chongqing Pure Draft since 2002 [3] Industry Context - The Chinese beer industry has entered a painful transformation phase, with a 30.1% decline in production from its peak in 2013 and a 5.7% decrease in industry revenue in 2024, making it the only declining category in the food and beverage sector [5] - The industry is now in a "stock game" phase, focusing on brand competition rather than volume expansion, prompting Chongqing Beer to target younger consumers while maintaining its brand heritage [5] Marketing Strategies - Chongqing Beer has engaged in innovative marketing strategies to resonate with younger audiences, such as hosting a symphonic concert that attracted nearly 2.9 million online viewers, blending classical and local music [6] - The company organized a dragon boat race event that incorporated interactive elements and social media engagement to appeal to younger demographics, successfully revitalizing traditional activities [7] - A vertical marathon event at the deepest subway station in the country was branded as "Chongqing Pure Draft Ascend Race," connecting with young people's aspirations and urban experiences [8][9] Brand Representation - The brand's approach to endorsements has evolved, recently featuring Hong Kong star Chen Xiaochun as a spokesperson, aligning with the brand's image of camaraderie and resonating with local culture [9] - The inclusion of diverse brand ambassadors, such as Sichuan singer Jike Junyi, aims to reach various regional preferences and interest groups [9]

Group 1: Credit and Debt Settlement - Several provinces have reported specific amounts allocated for settling overdue enterprise payments, with Hunan and Yunnan allocating 200 billion and 356 billion respectively, while Guangxi and Shaanxi have also set aside significant amounts from their special bonds [1][18][19] - Various counties have reported on the scale of overdue payments, with notable repayments such as 20.59 billion in Guizhou's Tongren Dejiang County, and several counties achieving a "zero balance" on overdue payments [1][19][20] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry - The recent fluctuation in the price of Moutai has affected market sentiment, prompting leading brands to explore new consumption scenarios and target younger demographics [2][29] - The beer sector has seen a decline, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Yanjing Beer as consumption policies evolve [2][30] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with health products and baked goods showing growth, while traditional alcoholic beverages face challenges [2][28][31] Group 3: Internet Industry - The valuation of Chinese internet companies is considered attractive, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing significant valuation advantages [3][34] - The focus for 2025 is on the resurgence of growth and innovation within the Chinese internet sector, with companies like Tencent and Alibaba actively pursuing new business opportunities [3][34] - AI applications are expected to enhance the overall valuation of Chinese internet companies, with significant advancements in technology and business practices [3][34][35] Group 4: Emerging Industries - The approval of D-allohexose as a new food ingredient in China is expected to expand market demand, with companies like Baolong Chuangyuan and Bailingbao positioned to benefit from this development [9][10] - The global market for allohexose is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 33.26% from 2019 to 2023, indicating strong future potential [9][10] Group 5: Textile and Fashion Industry - Jin Hong Group is successfully leveraging IP licensing and cloud brocade to enhance its market presence, with significant revenue growth projected for the coming years [8][26] - The company is focusing on creating diverse consumer experiences through innovative retail strategies and collaborations with popular brands [8][24][25]

摘要 惠泉啤酒一季度业绩创历史新高，得益于公司精细化耕耘市场，导入作 业绩效体系、标准化执行和强化技术创新，提升产品品质，赢得消费者 认可。 公司形成以依奈啤酒、小鲜啤酒、老惠泉啤酒和惠泉 1983 等主要单品 为引领、个性化单品为支撑的产品矩阵，精准切入高端市场，显著贡献 利润，并积极推进精酿系列产品。 公司积极拓展多元消费场景，如传统餐饮、夜场、音乐节、烧烤摊、露 营等，在泉州市场结合当地文化深度耕耘，市占率已达区域头部水平， 约为 30%. 公司近年来推动高端化产品发展，老惠泉和 1983 系列市场表现良好， 消费者认可度提升，增长幅度显著。高端化产品比例约为 20%，未来将 持续提升。 依麦产品占公司总销量 50%以上，去年下半年开始逐步提价，福建区域 已取消 5 元价位产品，计划稳住 7 元并逐步提升至 8 元，上半年初步验 证显示价格升级顺利。 Q&A 今年上半年公司经营情况如何？外部环境变化对公司有何影响？ 今年上半年，公司在收入和利润方面表现优异，领先于行业。中国啤酒行业目 前处于存量竞争阶段，重点围绕个性化、高端化、健康化和年轻化展开竞争。 消费者的消费习惯和理念不断成熟，对产品品质的追求也 ...

6 月 27 日，华润啤酒（ 0291.HK ）公告称，董事会主席侯孝海辞任，且不再担任董事会辖下财务 委员会主席、执行委员会以及购股权总务委员会各自之成员。 侯孝海离任的原因，白酒业内不少人的第一反应是，或与其主持高达 123 亿对价的金沙收购有关。 导 语："啤白协同"本不存在。但在"泡沫年代"，品牌与渠道的认知错位之下，它成为一个听上 去顺理成章的故事。 减不减值？ 曾主持"白酒史上最大并购案"的董事长，离开了。 以笔者在行业走访来看，从投资者到白酒从业者，从收购动议到运营至今，几乎没有人对该项目抱 有积极和正面的评价。 对比侯孝海离职，投资者更关心的是，接下来，收购金沙产生的 74 亿元商誉，是否会被计提减 值、从而影响华润啤酒业绩？ 图源：华润啤酒财报 业内人士告诉笔者，华润啤酒在去年秋天某交流会中表示：金沙不亏损不减值；如亏损，视现金流 而定。 不过，按照行业"潜规则"，新领导就任后，公司大概率会出现"业绩洗澡"。这样做，一来，能把"包 袱"甩给前任；二来，可降低就职前的业绩基数，便于在自己任期内做出高增长。 蒙牛（ 2319.HK ）上一任总裁卢敏离职后，高飞于 2024 年 3 月接任。蒙牛 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in sentiment due to fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai, with leading companies actively exploring new consumption scenarios and demographics [2][13] - The health products, soft drinks, and snacks sectors are viewed positively due to high growth potential, low base effects, and upcoming peak seasons [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.88% from June 23 to June 27, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [1][22] - Specific sector performances included health products (+3.65%), baked goods (+2.72%), and soft drinks (-0.58%) [1][22] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector declined by 1.66%, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai [2][13] - Current prices for 25-year Moutai (original/scattered) are 1870 RMB/1800 RMB, down by 80 RMB/100 RMB from the previous week [2][13] - The Shunwan white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18X, which is considered low compared to the historical average [2][13] Health Products and Snacks - The health products sector is experiencing a growth trend, with a 3.65% increase this week, driven by new consumption trends [20] - The snack sector is expected to benefit from low base effects and new product launches, with companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish being highlighted [17][21] Soft Drinks and Beer - The soft drink sector saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with notable performances from brands like Master Kong (+5.4%) and Nongfu Spring (+5.3%) [4][15] - The beer sector declined by 1.9%, but there is optimism for recovery with upcoming consumption policies [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on strong alpha companies in the liquor sector such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from market consolidation [4][21] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies are recommended, including Li Gao Foods and Nongfu Spring [4][21]