本周伊犁-天津港运费为600元/吨;昆明-黄埔港运费为350元/吨。 参与报价企业名单: 总体而言，本周工业硅在"成本支撑"与"弱需高库"的博弈中呈现小幅上涨，但受制于社会库存未能实现有效去 化、下游需求未见明显起色，市场难以扭转当前的弱势格局。短期来看，价格或将继续区间震荡运行，关键转折 点在于库存的去化速度。 | | 国内工业硅价格 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牌号/地区 | 地区综合 价格 | 波动 | ર્રક | 波动 | 441 | 波动 | 421 | 波动 | 3303 | 波动 | | 新疆 | 8886 | 38 | 8600-9000 | 50 | 8700-9200 | 0 | 9000-9500 | 50 | 9400-10000 | 0 | | 云筒 | 9760 | 7 | 9100-9300 | 50 | 9400-9800 | 100 | 9700-9900 | 100 | 10200-10300 | 0 | | 福建 | - ...

本周工业硅市场呈现期现联动的小幅上涨行情。 11 月 13 日至 11 月 19 日，主力合约 2601 收盘 价从 9145 元 / 吨上涨至 9390 元 / 吨，上涨 245 元 / 吨。根据安泰科采集价格统计， 11 月 19 日全国 工业硅综合价格为 9250 元 / 吨，环比上涨 43 元 / 吨。分牌号来看， 553# 工业硅价格为 8807 元 / 吨，环比上涨 50 元 / 吨， 441# 工业硅价格为 9918 元 / 吨，环比上涨 26 元 / 吨， 421# 工业硅价格为 9711 元 / 吨，环比上涨 39 元 / 吨；分区域看，新疆、云南、四川综合价格分别为 8886 元 / 吨、 9760 元 / 吨、 10050 元 / 吨，分别环比上涨 38 元 / 吨、 7 元 / 吨、 100 元 / 吨；出口 FOB 价格比上周上浮 10 美元 / 吨。 本周工业硅供应端呈现进一步收紧态势。西南地区由于枯水期电价上调导致生产成本增加，云 南、四川等地硅厂开工率持续走低，可流通现货收紧。北方地区如内蒙古、甘肃和新疆等地生产相对 稳定。尽管供应呈收紧态势，但社会库存仍处高位，持续对价格形成 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the spot price has a slight increase, and after the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry - season, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and inventory accumulation slows down. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies pushing for capacity exit, the futures price may rise. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumption performance. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly [2][7]. 3. Summary by Topic Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9365 yuan/ton and closed at 9075 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.37% from the previous settlement. The 2511 main contract held 273978 positions, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43297, a decrease of 115 from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Market**: The industrial silicon spot price increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major areas was 54.8 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons from last week. The social general warehouse inventory was 12.9 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 41.9 tons, unchanged from last week [1]. - **Export and Import**: In October 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 4.51 tons, a sharp decrease of 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 60.67 tons, a decrease of 1% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 0.86 tons, a decrease of 67% year - on - year [2]. - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC continued to rise, with the current market quotation ranging from 13000 to 13200 yuan/ton, an increase of about 850 yuan/ton or 6.9% from last week's average price. In October 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxanes from China was 4.1 tons, a decrease of 13.5% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year [2]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and for dry - season contracts, buy on dips [2]. Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: On November 20, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2601 fluctuated weakly. It opened at 54500 yuan/ton and closed at 52450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous trading day. The main contract held 134292 positions, and the trading volume was 304835 [5]. - **Spot Market**: The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon factory inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10, a change of 1.50% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW, a change of 1.63% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon production was 27100.00 tons, a change of 1.11% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 12.78GW, a change of - 2.59% month - on - month [5]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component Prices**: Silicon wafer prices fell due to poor order demand. The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece. The prices of various types of battery cells and components remained stable [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 and 55,000 yuan/ton [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].

Report Overview - Date: November 21, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures Core Views - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, oscillating [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: Weak market conditions are suppressing steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: The inventory reduction speed is slowing down, and a cooling market sentiment may lead to a price correction [2][10]. - Industrial Silicon: The market shows a weak pattern [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][14]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 115,380 yuan, down 270 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 154,598 lots, with a decrease of 40,178 lots from the previous day. Other data such as import nickel prices, nickel ore prices, and stainless - steel product prices also showed different degrees of change [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Issues include the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, China's suspension of non - official subsidies for Russian copper and nickel imports, sanctions on Indonesian mining companies, new regulations on Indonesian mining business plans, potential US tariffs on China, and Indonesia's suspension of new smelting licenses [5][6][7]. - **Trend Strength**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 98,980 yuan, down 320 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 1,595,646 lots, a decrease of 171,782 lots from the previous day. Other data related to the lithium carbonate market, including spot prices, raw material prices, and downstream product prices, all had corresponding changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased by 2563 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. This week, the lithium carbonate output increased by 585 tons, and the industry inventory decreased by 2052 tons [11]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 9075 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 574,345 lots, a decrease of 181,387 lots from the previous day. Data such as prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and their related products also showed different trends [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On November 18, a 200 - megawatt photovoltaic project in Xinjiang was completed and put into operation, with a total investment of about 5 billion yuan and an average annual power generation of about 3.2 billion kWh [14][16]. - **Trend Strength**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend strength of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, the decline in production is expected to narrow, but if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can gradually take profits at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to stabilize. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short term, the supply of polysilicon is relatively high, but the long - term supply - demand balance driven by the exit of backward production capacity will support the price. The futures price has fallen back to a reasonable range, and attention should be paid to the support level, as well as the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand changes, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the November contract cancellation [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand surplus pattern, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate between macro - level positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to downstream start - up changes, inventory reduction rhythms, and overseas policy trends [3][4]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Existing long positions can be held, and attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals provide limited support for the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. In the short term, it may still be volatile. An upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand, and a downward breakthrough requires continuous inventory accumulation. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices, and the short - term main contract reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Copper - The market expects the probability of an interest rate cut in December to decline, and the copper price is oscillating weakly. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. The main contract reference range is 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The macro - level exerts some pressure, and the improvement in fundamentals is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant, which restricts the upward space of the price. The short - term driving force is weak, and the main contract reference range is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - level expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [12]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro - level driving forces are insufficient, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. The supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mills' production reduction and nickel - iron prices [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the main contract LC2601 has risen. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large enterprises, changes in demand after the peak season, and the possible acceleration of the release of upstream projects at high prices. Long positions established earlier can consider partial profit - taking [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the futures price decreased. The basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional production, as well as the national start - up rate, showed different trends. The production of some downstream products also changed, and the inventory of industrial silicon showed an overall upward trend [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, the futures price fell, and the arbitrage window closed. The component price gradually recovered [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly data showed that polysilicon production increased slightly, silicon wafer production decreased slightly, and the inventories of both increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum increased slightly, and the price of alumina in some regions decreased. The spreads and premiums also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production increased in October. The start - up rates of aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin remained unchanged, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spreads of different contracts showed various changes [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Tin ore imports decreased in September, while refined tin production increased in October. The import and export volumes of refined tin changed slightly [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: Refined zinc production increased in October, and the start - up rates of zinc processing industries showed different trends. The inventory of LME increased, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased [9]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the spreads, premiums, and import - export profits changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Electrolytic copper production and import volume decreased in October. The start - up rates of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of different types of copper changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the spreads and import - export profits changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production and import volume increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The production capacity and start - up rate increased [18].

Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices rose rapidly in the afternoon. The closing price of Si2601 was 9,390 yuan/ton, with a gain of 4.68%. The trading volume was 755,732 lots, and the open interest was 30,669 lots, with a net increase of 58,650 lots [4] - Spot prices increased slightly. The price range of 553 was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 was 9,750 - 9,950 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Supply and demand of industrial silicon both decreased. Production cuts in the southwest production area were ongoing, and weekly output still had room to decline [4] - The planned production cuts of silicone enterprises were significantly lower than the previous market consensus. The actual production cuts and time under the conditions of profitability and industrial self - discipline needed to be observed. In the first half of 2025, the silicone industry also cut production to support prices, but the effect was limited. Polysilicon production was also cut simultaneously, and the monthly output was expected to remain at 120,000 tons [4] - Due to production cuts in the southwest and rising costs, after the price of 2601 strongly rose and then fell, the basis was basically at par. The upside space was limited, and it was expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly. Be vigilant against the ebb of bullish sentiment in the same - sector commodities [4] Group 3: Market News - On November 19, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 43,412 lots, a net decrease of 10 lots from the previous trading day [4] - A meeting of actual controllers of silicone monomer plants was held in Shanghai as scheduled. The organizer was the China Fluorosilicone and Organic Materials Industry Association, and leading enterprises participated. The total production capacity of participating enterprises accounted for more than 80% of the industry's production capacity. The meeting was about joint emission reduction and price support [4] - The emission reduction plan was to be implemented starting from December 1. If it was implemented throughout December, the DMC output in December was expected to be about 210,400 tons, a reduction of about 8,000 tons compared with before the reduction. It was expected to affect the monthly consumption of industrial silicon by about 4,400 tons [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The long - term upward trend of industrial silicon remains intact despite a recent decline, and it is expected to continue rising with a narrowing amplitude [2]. - On the supply side, as the southwest region enters the dry season, electricity prices are expected to rise significantly, and some industrial silicon enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have planned to cut production, leading to a contraction in supply next week [2]. - On the demand side, the organic silicon industry's demand for industrial silicon is mainly for rigid procurement, and the increase in organic silicon prices may lead to an increase in industrial silicon demand; the demand for polysilicon is stabilizing, but the profitability of polysilicon enterprises is compressed, reducing their acceptance of industrial silicon prices; the demand for aluminum alloy has limited pulling effect on industrial silicon [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 315 yuan; the position of the main contract was 273,978 lots, a decrease of 32,691 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 86,614 lots, a decrease of 13,858 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 43,297 lots, a decrease of 115 lots; the basis of the December - January industrial silicon contract closing price was 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 475 yuan/ton, an increase of 415 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 402,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 1939.85 tons, an increase of 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 70,232.72 tons, a decrease of 6409.29 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 21,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.95 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.18%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, an increase of 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, a decrease of 5568.37 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On November 12th, Luxi Chemical (000830.SZ) led an organic silicon industry meeting, aiming to cut the industry's operating rate by 30% starting in early December and raise the price of organic silicon DMC to 13,500 yuan/ton within half a month [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are affected by emotions and news, with significant price fluctuations. The industrial silicon market may see an improved supply - demand pattern after southwest production cuts, while the polysilicon market has large inventory pressure and is affected by policies and weak reality [3][7] - For industrial silicon, the current valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the price may rise. For polysilicon, the consumption side performs averagely, and the market is expected to be volatile [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8985 yuan/ton and closed at 9390 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton (4.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 306,669 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,412 lots, up 10 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was 13000 - 13200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton. Other downstream product prices also rose, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in a week [2] Strategy - The spot price is stable with some increases. After southwest production cuts, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The current industrial silicon market is affected by overall commodity emotions and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and consider going long on dry - season contracts at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures oscillated strongly, opening at 52,300 yuan/ton and closing at 54,625 yuan/ton, up 4.28% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 134,317 lots, and the trading volume was 361,538 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09% month - on - month to 26.70, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5.14% month - on - month to 18.42GW. The weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, down 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, down 2.45% month - on - month [4] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan), N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan). The polysilicon production in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and the production in November in the southwest region was expected to decline [6] - The prices of battery cells and components remained relatively stable [6] Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of industrial silicon remains high, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon has significantly contracted. The anti - involution policy has little impact on industrial silicon, and its price may be under pressure. For polysilicon, the anti - involution policy has a clear impact, and its price has strong bottom support [4][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 10, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rebounded significantly. The industrial silicon main contract price exceeded 9,500 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon main contract price approached 55,000 yuan/ton. The smooth convening of the organic silicon industry production - reduction meeting and concerns about supply - side disturbances due to winter heating season contributed to the price rebound [4] Fundamental Situation Industrial Silicon - Supply: The supply of industrial silicon has a marginal contraction as the southwest dry season approaches, but the national monthly output is still expected to be above 350,000 tons, and supply pressure remains. - Demand: In November, the demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, and the demand from aluminum alloy has limited growth. - Inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are gradually being cleared in November [5] Polysilicon - Supply: The production of polysilicon will contract in November and December, with an estimated output of less than 120,000 tons in November and 110,000 tons in December. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon may weaken from November due to the decline in domestic photovoltaic installation and the weakening of the demand for battery and component exports in the fourth quarter [6] Summary and Strategy - Industrial silicon: It is recommended that investors use short - selling hedging. In terms of arbitrage, investors can gradually engage in the inter - period positive spread of industrial silicon. - Polysilicon: Investors can focus on selling put options of polysilicon [7]