Report Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Views Caustic Soda - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has high profits, driving an increase in restocking demand. In the East China region, downstream rigid demand provides support, resulting in low inventory pressure for enterprises. In the North, supply exceeds demand, while in the Southwest, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production drives a steady increase in raw material demand. It is expected that the number of warehouse receipts in the main production areas will increase in August. With no significant positive support on the demand side, the downstream's acceptance of price increases is limited, and the enthusiasm for taking delivery is weak. In the coming week, the price in Shandong will generally remain stable, with a possible decline in the southwestern part of Shandong. In the later period, attention should be paid to the purchasing situation of alumina enterprises. As the main delivery month approaches, the upward price range is expected to be limited [2]. - The 09 contract's fluctuation range is expected to be between 2,500 - 2,650 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for options [2]. PVC - This week, the PVC market was affected by the sentiment in the black sector and rumors in the salt chemical industry, causing the futures price to fluctuate repeatedly. The overall fundamentals have not changed significantly, with sufficient supply and no improvement in demand. Spot trading is dull. The release of new production capacity has added new pressure to the supply side. The operating rate of downstream product enterprises remains low, and the industry is still in the off - season. Overall, the supply - demand pressure is still high, and the price is expected to weaken. However, attention should be paid to the potential boost of PVC prices by coking coal from the raw material side [3]. - For futures, it is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies. For options, it is recommended to buy put options [3]. Summary by Catalog Caustic Soda Price and Market Trends - The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - economic conditions, alumina demand, and cost changes. For example, the relaxation of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the improvement of alumina profits have increased the willingness to purchase caustic soda in the spot market, driving up the futures price. On the other hand, factors such as the expected increase in new caustic soda production capacity, the decline in alumina support in the medium - term, and the decrease in costs have led to a downward trend in the futures price [6]. Supply - As of Thursday this week, the weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 87.34%, a decrease of 1.79 percentage points from 89.10% last week. There were still chlor - alkali plant overhauls or temporary shutdowns this week, and some enterprises adjusted production during off - peak periods, resulting in a decline in the operating load rate. The operating rate in Shandong was 87.15%, a decrease of 2.23% [25]. - On August 13, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises in East China was 233,600 tons, an increase of 6.62% from 219,100 tons on August 6. In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda of expanded sample enterprises was 83,900 tons on August 13, an increase of 1.57% from 82,600 tons on August 6 [25]. Demand - From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned production capacity of alumina to be put into operation is 1.23 billion tons (including 2 million tons of replacement). It is estimated that the annual production capacity growth rate will be around 10%, and the annual output in 2025 will exceed 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina production capacity will increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated increase of 150,000 tons in demand from April to June [30]. - The spot trading volume of alumina has rebounded slightly. The opening rate of alumina plants has remained stable nationwide. The impact on caustic soda demand depends on whether the alumina bauxite shipment volume decreases [37]. PVC Price and Market Trends - The PVC futures price has been affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance, weak domestic and foreign demand, and poor macro - market sentiment, showing a downward trend. However, factors such as policy expectations and low - price demand recovery have also led to short - term rebounds [63]. Supply - This week, the overall operating load rate of the domestic PVC powder industry increased slightly. There was only one new plant under overhaul this week, and the overhaul loss decreased compared with the previous week. The overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 78.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.09 percentage points. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium carbide - based PVC powder was 79.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38 percentage points, and the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 77.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.37 percentage points [85]. Demand - The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing great pressure, and the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real estate market, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices," will continue to have a negative impact on demand. Domestic demand has not improved significantly. According to Xuande sample data, downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and both raw material and finished product inventories are at high levels, so it is difficult for PVC downstream demand to have positive drivers [95]. Inventory - The PVC inventory has continued to increase month - on - month, showing significant pressure. The social inventory in East and South China, as well as the total social inventory and factory inventory, have all increased [103]. Export - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, with an average export price of $611 per ton. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 1.9605 million tons. The single - month export volume decreased by 27.61% month - on - month, increased by 21.03% year - on - year compared with the same month last year, and the cumulative export volume increased by 50.26% year - on - year. The import volume in June was 24,000 tons, with an average import price of $703 per ton. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 124,300 tons. The single - month import volume increased by 63.80% month - on - month, increased by 32.61% year - on - year compared with the same month last year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 0.51% year - on - year [121].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upside space for caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2,800 price level for the SH509 contract. The market is mainly driven by potential negative feedback on the operating rate due to price drops and the impact of domestic demand. Without significant event shocks, the upside for the near - term is expected to be limited [3]. - The rebound of caustic soda futures this week was mainly due to the approaching delivery of the near - term contract and the strengthening of the near - term spot, which pushed up the market expectations. However, the subsequent upward potential depends on the verification of the peak season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - The domestic low - concentration caustic soda market price increased week - on - week. In Shandong, the average price of 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda rose from 836 yuan/ton (converted to 2,618.75 yuan/ton in 100% purity) at the beginning of the week to 847 yuan/ton (2,646.875 yuan/ton in 100% purity) at the end of the week. The price increase was due to factors such as new orders, improved delivery, and reduced inventory pressure [11]. - The price of 50% caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions also showed certain trends, and the report provided historical price data for different regions and types of caustic soda [17][22][23]. 3.2 Price Difference - **Model Price Difference**: The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions were presented, along with historical data [33]. - **Regional Price Difference**: The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions were analyzed, and historical data were provided [33]. 3.3 Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda production was estimated to be 82.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13% [50]. - Some enterprises in Hubei and Zhejiang completed their maintenance, while some in Jiangxi and Hunan started maintenance, with the overall maintenance impact decreasing compared to last week [50]. - The report also provided information on the operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda, and the production and maintenance plans of different enterprises [51][56][60]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina**: This week, the profit margin of alumina was acceptable, and the operating capacity remained at a high level. As of August 14, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.2 million tons and an operating rate of 82.93%. However, there was a possibility of subsequent production cuts [63]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry this week was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% [63]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of August 14, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.19%. The industry showed a mild recovery [63]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 275,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47%. The inventory in North China increased, while that in Northeast, Central, and East China decreased [77]. - The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 25,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.3% due to slow sales and increased supply [77]. 3.6 Valuation - The production cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market had a slight increase this week, and the动力煤 market price rose slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the spot side was compressed [81][82]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provided data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, and the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based and northwest integrated chlor - alkali. It also presented information on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin [94][95][100].

Core Viewpoint - Company reported a total operating revenue of 13.955 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.32%, but the decline in revenue showed signs of narrowing in the second quarter compared to the first quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue in the second quarter saw a year-on-year decline of 2.40%, significantly improved from a 13.02% decline in the first quarter [1] - The main reason for the revenue decline was the focus on core business, leading to a 93.41% drop in modern trade business revenue, while core businesses in chlor-alkali chemicals and textile industries grew by 14.51% and 8.32% respectively [1] - The total profit for the first half of the year was -158 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction in losses of 45.54%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -194 million yuan, reducing losses by 20% [1] - The gross profit margin increased significantly from 14.63% in the first half of 2024 to 18.97% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 4.34 percentage points [1] Group 2: Research and Development - R&D investment increased by 16.35% year-on-year, focusing on key technologies such as intelligent manufacturing of calcium carbide/alkali, low calorific value coal substitution, and clean efficient utilization of coal [2] - The company is actively promoting the localization of key raw materials and additives, enhancing the stability of its production system [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - As of August 5, 2025, PVC prices and price differentials were 4,781 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton, respectively, showing increases of 0.76% and 68.27% since the beginning of the year [2] - The PVC business revenue grew by 12.16% year-on-year, although the gross profit margin declined [3] - The demand for caustic soda is expected to grow due to increased demand from the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors, with a favorable outlook for the chlor-alkali industry as a result of ongoing policy support [3]

氯碱日报 | 2025-08-15 烧碱逆势上涨，PVC震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4970元/吨（-46）；华东基差-150元/吨（-14）;华南基差-70元/吨（+6）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4820元/吨（-60）；华南电石法报价4900元/吨（-40）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格595元/吨（+0）；电石价格2780元/吨（+0）；电石利润14元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-252元/吨（-231）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-489元/吨（-10）；PVC出口利润6.5美元/吨（-0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存33.7万吨（-0.8）；PVC社会库存48.1万吨（+3.3）；PVC电石法开工率79.21%（+1.38%）； PVC乙烯法开工率77.92%（+0.37%）；PVC开工率78.84%（+1.09%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量83.2万吨（-2.2）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2530元/吨（+49）；山东32%液碱基差33元/吨（+14）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价820元/吨（+20）；山东50%液碱 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice outlining the 2025 industrial energy conservation inspection tasks and carbon reduction diagnostic services, targeting multiple petrochemical and chemical enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Energy Conservation Inspection Tasks - A total of 26 refining enterprises, 13 synthetic ammonia enterprises, 3 chemical fiber and blended fabric enterprises, 2 tire enterprises, 1 chemical enterprise, 1 fertilizer enterprise, 1 titanium dioxide enterprise, and 1 coal-to-methanol enterprise are included in the energy conservation inspection task list [1] - The notice emphasizes the need for energy conservation and carbon reduction diagnostics to identify weaknesses in production processes, key product equipment, energy structure, and energy management systems [1] Group 2: Carbon Reduction Diagnostic Services - The notice includes 1 petrochemical enterprise, 5 nitrogen fertilizer enterprises, 1 rubber and plastic products enterprise, 1 chlor-alkali enterprise, and 3 chemical enterprises in the carbon reduction diagnostic service task list [1] - The document highlights the importance of energy conservation and carbon reduction services in guiding enterprises to implement energy-saving technology transformations and promote equipment upgrades [2]

| 《》》 国资期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年08月14日 | | 尿素 | ななな | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | な女女 | 苯乙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 影丙烯 | な女女 | 塑料 | ☆☆☆ | | | PVC | ななな | 烧碱 | な☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | РХ | 女女女 | PTA | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | 女女女 | 纯碱 | 女女女 | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文☆ 丙烯 | | 女女女 | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚烯烃】 丙烯期货主力合约日内高开低走,盘中继续下探5日 ...

| | | ，装置预计稳定运行。非铝下游尚缺乏改善信号。SH2509短期关注2600附近压力；SH2601关注2530附近 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 支撑与2700附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 烧碱产业日报 2025-08-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2530 | 49 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 61036 | -9420 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -20130 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: The PVC market is affected by macro - sentiment, with the disk fluctuating strongly. However, the fundamentals remain weak. Supply pressure is high due to increased production, while demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation. Although the cost provides some support, the 09 - contract has significant warehouse receipt pressure [5]. - Caustic Soda: The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. Demand from the alumina sector is improving, and the spot price is expected to stabilize and rebound. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking during the peak season and the production schedule of Guangxi alumina [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5016 yuan/ton (-31), the East China basis is -136 yuan/ton (+31), and the South China basis is -76 yuan/ton (+31) [3]. - Spot: The East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is priced at 4880 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4940 yuan/ton (+0) [3]. - Upstream Profit: The production gross profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC is -252 yuan/ton (-231), and that of ethylene - based PVC is -489 yuan/ton (-10). The export profit is 6.9 dollars/ton (-2.1) [3]. - Inventory and Operation: The in - factory inventory is 33.7 tons (-0.8), the social inventory is 48.1 tons (+3.3), and the overall operation rate is 77.75% (+4.49%) [3]. - Downstream Orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 83.2 tons (-2.2) [3]. Caustic Soda - Futures: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2481 yuan/ton (-21), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 19 yuan/ton (+21) [3]. - Spot: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and that of 50% is 1310 yuan/ton (+10) [3]. - Upstream Profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 765.8 yuan/ton (+40.0) [4]. - Inventory and Operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 46.17 tons (+3.75), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.10), and the operation rate is 85.10% (+1.20%) [4]. - Downstream Operation: The alumina operation rate is 85.73% (+0.15%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 59.28% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 84.97% (+0.00%) [4]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The operation rate has increased significantly, and new production capacity is being gradually put into production, leading to an expected increase in output and high supply pressure [5]. - Demand: The operation of downstream products remains at a low level, with enterprises purchasing on a just - in - time basis. Export performance is affected by policies and the rainy season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is high. The 09 - contract has significant warehouse receipt pressure [5]. - Cost: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke are relatively stable, providing some cost support [5]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The upstream operation rate is at a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. Attention should be paid to the operation rate in Shandong from late August to September [5]. - Demand: Alumina operation is improving, and the spot price is expected to stabilize and rebound. Non - aluminum demand remains weak [5]. - Inventory: The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has decreased, and downstream enterprises may stock up in advance [5]. Strategy - PVC: The single - side strategy is neutral, and the V09 - 01 inter - period reverse spread is recommended [6]. - Caustic Soda: The single - side strategy is to wait and see [6].

1. PVC, Caustic Soda Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - For caustic soda, the overall demand has performed well recently, but there are expectations of increased supply in the future, and the rebound height is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement situation of alumina enterprises [5]. - For PVC, the supply - side pressure is increasing, downstream demand is difficult to improve, and the overall supply - demand pressure is large. However, there is a need to be vigilant about the positive impact of coking coal on PVC prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda also remained unchanged at 2600 yuan/ton. The market price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4910 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.4%. The price of SH2601 increased by 41 yuan/ton to 2636 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.6% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate on August 8 was 89.1%, an increase of 1.7% compared to August 1. The total operating rate of PVC was 77.8%, an increase of 6.1% compared to August 1. The profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 150 yuan/ton to - 542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.3% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 8, the operating rate of the alumina industry was 82.6%, an increase of 0.2% compared to August 1. The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry remained unchanged at 85%. The operating rate of the printing and dyeing industry was 59.3%, an increase of 0.7% compared to August 1. The operating rate of Longzhong sample PVC pipes decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 32.1%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 36.9% [4][5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the factory - warehouse inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China was 219,000 tons, an increase of 2.0% compared to July 31. The total social inventory of PVC was 481,000 tons, an increase of 7.3% compared to July 31 [5]. 2. Polyolefin Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - In August, the supply pressure of PP and PE increases, and the inventory accumulation expectation turns into a flat - inventory expectation. The downstream operating rate is at a low level, but there are potential restocking conditions in the seasonal peak season. The overall valuation is neutral, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to take profit on the short positions established at 7200 - 7300 around 7000 and continue to hold LP01 [10]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the closing price of L2601 was 7389 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to August 11. The closing price of PP2509 was 7091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% compared to August 11 [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, PP maintenance decreased, and the supply pressure of PE also increased. The downstream operating rate of PP/PE was at a low level, and the social inventory was accumulating, but the downstream raw material inventory had been digested to a relatively low level [10]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the enterprise inventory of PE was 515,000 tons, an increase of 19.09% compared to the previous period; the enterprise inventory of PP was 587,000 tons, an increase of 3.95% compared to the previous period [10]. 3. Crude Oil Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recent oil prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, driven by geopolitics and supply - demand fundamentals. The market is cautious. In the short term, oil prices will remain under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and expand the 10 - 11/12 month spreads [13]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 13, the price of Brent crude oil was 66.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.77% compared to August 12. The price of WTI crude oil was 63.16 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.02% compared to August 12 [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The US Department of Energy has raised the expected supply surplus for this year to 1.7 million barrels per day, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, increasing supply pressure. Seasonal demand is weakening, and gasoline and diesel consumption is gradually declining, suppressing the upside of oil prices [13]. 4. Methanol Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The inland maintenance of methanol is expected to peak at the beginning of August. Currently, production is at a high level year - on - year. The port has significantly accumulated inventory this week, and the basis is stable. In August, imports are still relatively high, and downstream demand is weak due to low profits. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices in 01 contracts after the near - end contracts weaken significantly [19][20]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the closing price of MA2601 was 2496 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to August 11. The closing price of MA2509 was 2391 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.08% compared to August 11 [17]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data, the enterprise inventory of methanol was 29.3688 (unit not specified), a decrease of 9.50% compared to the previous period; the port inventory was 925,000 tons, an increase of 14.48% compared to the previous period [18]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of domestic upstream methanol enterprises was 73.17%, an increase of 2.28% compared to the previous period; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid enterprises was 89.8%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous period [19]. 5. Urea Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - The weak and volatile trend of the urea futures market is driven by the contradiction between supply and demand. High supply pressure persists, and industrial and agricultural demand is weak. Although exports are progressing in an orderly manner, they cannot offset the domestic supply - demand imbalance. It is expected that the market will fluctuate around the 1700 - 1720 range in the short term [27]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 11, the price of Shandong small - particle urea decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% [27]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output of domestic urea on August 8 was 192,100 tons, an increase of 1.05% compared to August 7. The weekly output of domestic urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 1.94% compared to August 1 [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the weekly inventory of domestic urea factories was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 3.24% compared to the previous period; the weekly inventory of domestic urea ports was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 2.03% compared to the previous period [27]. 6. Polyester Industry Chain Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **PX**: The supply is expected to increase marginally in August, and the supply - demand situation is expected to weaken. The upward rebound drive is insufficient, but the downward space is also limited. PX11 is expected to fluctuate between 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton [30]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in August, but the medium - term supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. The basis is running weakly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and conduct reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 at high prices [30]. - **MEG**: The short - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve, and it is recommended to lightly buy on dips around 4400 yuan/ton for EGO9 [30]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand drive is limited, and the absolute price follows the raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within the range of 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton for PF10 [30]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The inventory is gradually decreasing, and the processing fee has support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy the processing fee on dips in the short term [30]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of POY150/48 was 6730 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of PX futures 2601 was 6712 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton compared to August 11 [30]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of Asian PX was 73.6%, an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous period; the operating rate of PTA was 75.3%, an increase of 0.9% compared to the previous period [30]. 7. Pure Benzene - Styrene Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the port inventory is expected to decrease in August, providing short - term support for prices. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the upward rebound space is limited. BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [34]. - **Styrene**: The short - term supply remains high, and there are expectations of some device maintenance. The downstream EPS has reduced production due to high inventory. The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. EB09 is expected to fluctuate between 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton, and short - selling is recommended near the upper limit [34]. Summary by Directory - **Price Changes**: On August 12, the price of CFR China pure benzene was 755 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.7% compared to August 11. The price of styrene in East China was 7370 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.0% compared to August 11 [34]. - **Inventory**: As of August 11, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 10.4% compared to August 4; the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 148,800 tons, a decrease of 6.4% compared to August 4 [34]. - **Operating Rate**: As of August 8, the operating rate of Asian pure benzene was 76.0%, a decrease of 1.3% compared to August 1; the operating rate of styrene was 77.7%, a decrease of 1.2% compared to August 1 [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The olefin - polyolefin market has mixed trends. Propylene has inventory and supply - side support, while polyolefin has limited upward drivers [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market shows different situations. Pure benzene has a slight recovery, and styrene has limited upward drivers due to cost and supply - demand contradictions [3] - The polyester industry has a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Different products have different supply - demand and cost situations, and attention should be paid to oil price trends and demand recovery [4] - The coal - chemical industry has different trends in different regions for methanol, and urea is in the off - season with limited demand promotion [5] - The chlor - alkali industry has PVC with supply pressure and a weakening trend, and caustic soda with short - term supply reduction but long - term pressure [6] - The soda - glass industry has soda with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure, and glass with cost support and attention to low - buying opportunities [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures opened higher and fluctuated widely. Enterprises' low inventory and shutdown benefits boosted prices. Downstream demand was mainly rigid [2] - Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene supply changed little, and demand increased slightly. Polypropylene supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices recovered with the increase of domestic production, decrease of imports, and port de - stocking. It was suggested to conduct monthly spread band operations [3] - Styrene futures closed up, but cost support was weak, and supply - demand contradictions still existed, with limited upward drivers [3] 3.3 Polyester - The polyester industry chain moved up slightly. PTA supply - demand was weak, PX had a positive outlook in the third quarter, and attention should be paid to oil price and demand [4] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded slightly, with increasing industry start - up and expected demand recovery. Medium - term attention was on demand [4] - Short fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was suggested to be long - allocated in the medium - term. Bottle chip orders improved, but capacity over - supply was a long - term pressure [4] 3.4 Coal - chemical - Methanol fluctuated narrowly. Coal price increase compressed profits in the northwest, and there were differences between inland and port supply - demand situations. Attention was on downstream demand [5] - Urea was in the agricultural off - season, with increasing compound fertilizer start - up but limited demand promotion. It was expected to fluctuate in a range [5] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC had supply pressure and was expected to have a weakening trend. Caustic soda had short - term supply reduction but long - term supply pressure [6] 3.6 Soda - Glass - Soda was affected by environmental news, with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure [7] - Glass had cost support, and it was suggested to consider low - buying near the cost [7]