1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] - Analyze the fundamentals, market trends, option factors of various energy - chemical option varieties, and put forward corresponding option strategies and suggestions 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Multiple energy - chemical option underlying futures are presented, including information such as the latest price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of each variety [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided. Volume PCR is used to describe the turning point of the underlying market, and open interest PCR is used to describe the strength of the option underlying market [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various energy - chemical options are given, which are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of various energy - chemical options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6] 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: The market is concerned about long - term supply surplus. The option implied volatility drops to near the average. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **LPG**: The PDH device maintenance situation is stable, but the profit is declining. The option implied volatility drops to below the average. Similar strategies as crude oil are recommended [9] 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: Port inventory increases, and the market is in a weak state. The option implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average. A short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy are recommended [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply increases, and the market is weak. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy for put options and a short - volatility strategy, along with a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: Inventory accumulates, and the market is weak. It is recommended to use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: Inventory decreases, and the market is in a weak consolidation state. A short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy is recommended [12] 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: Supply support is insufficient, and the market is weak. A short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy is recommended [12] 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: Supply decreases, inventory increases, and the market is in a downward trend. A bear spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13] - **Soda Ash**: Inventory increases, and the market is in a low - level weak consolidation state. A short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13] 3.5.7 Urea Options - The supply capacity utilization rate increases, inventory changes, and the market is in a low - level weak state. A bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [14] 3.6 Option Charts - Charts of various energy - chemical options are provided, including price trends, trading volume, open interest, PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, etc., to visually display the market conditions of each option variety [15][33][51]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has been under price pressure since early September, with PTA futures showing weak performance and prices stabilizing around 4500 yuan/ton after the National Day holiday [1] Supply Side - As of early October, PTA weekly capacity utilization has increased by approximately 7 percentage points compared to the end of August, reaching 77.84%, while PX weekly capacity utilization rose to 88.23%, up about 3.6 percentage points [1][3] - Several major facilities remain offline, with uncertain restart dates, including the 1.2 million ton facility at Sanfangxiang and the 2.25 million ton facility at Yisheng Dalian [3] - There are expectations for maintenance in October for the 1 million ton facility at Sichuan Nengtou and the 2.5 million ton facility at Dushan Energy in November, indicating limited recovery in PTA capacity utilization despite marginal increases [3] Demand Side - As of early October, demand from weaving terminals remains strong, with improved inquiry atmosphere for autumn and winter home textiles and apparel fabrics, although foreign trade orders are still low [4] - The average capacity utilization for long filaments is approximately 91.39%, and for short fibers, it is about 86.96%, both showing slight increases compared to August [4] - The overall demand performance is moderate, with limited new orders during the National Day holiday, leading to a cautious approach in raw material procurement [4] Price and Profitability - From early September to early October, processing profits in the polyester industry chain have decreased, with PX valuations dropping and PTA processing fees remaining low [2] - As of early October, the weighted profit for polyester is a monthly loss of 26 yuan/ton, significantly narrowing from a loss of 80 yuan/ton in August [2] - The expected trading range for PTA futures is between 4400 to 4800 yuan/ton, with spot processing fees anticipated to range from 100 to 300 yuan/ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain has been under price pressure since early September, with PTA futures showing weak performance and prices stabilizing around 4500 yuan/ton after the National Day holiday [1] Supply Side - As of early October, PTA weekly capacity utilization has increased by approximately 7 percentage points compared to the end of August, reaching 77.84%. PX weekly capacity utilization rose to 88.23%, up about 3.6 percentage points, while polyester capacity utilization remained stable at 87.8%, a rise of about 1.14 percentage points [1][3] - Several major facilities are still offline, with uncertain restart dates. Facilities that are currently offline include the 1.2 million ton facility at Sanfangxiang, the 1.2 million ton facility at Taiwan Chemical, and the 2.25 million ton facility at Yisheng Dalian, among others. The restart of these facilities is pending [3] - There are expectations for maintenance in October for the 1 million ton facility at Sichuan Energy Investment and the 2.5 million ton facility at Dushan Energy, which may limit the overall increase in PTA capacity utilization [3] Demand Side - As of early October, demand from the weaving terminal remains strong, with improved inquiry atmosphere for autumn and winter home textiles and apparel fabrics. However, foreign trade orders are still relatively low [4] - The average capacity utilization for long filaments is approximately 91.39%, for short fibers is about 86.96%, and for bottle flakes is around 71.16%, all showing slight increases compared to August [4] - The overall demand performance during the National Day holiday was weak, with manufacturers primarily focusing on fulfilling previous orders rather than actively procuring raw materials [4] Market Outlook - The PTA market is expected to continue a dual increase in supply and demand in October, with more uncertainties on the supply side compared to the demand side. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of facility restarts and maintenance, which may adjust supply expectations [4] - The cost side shows limited supply-demand contradictions for PX, with weak crude oil prices. PTA futures prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation trend, with the main contract operating in the range of 4400 to 4800 yuan/ton and spot processing fees between 100 to 300 yuan/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. The IEA predicts a large supply surplus in the world oil market next year, with supply growth significantly outpacing demand growth, putting strong pressure on oil prices. Currently, the market faces pressure from both supply and demand sides, and the peak demand season is fading with no highlights in the downstream [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong, but Trump's new round of tariff hikes is pressuring oil prices [2]. - Asphalt prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, with a smaller decline than crude oil and fuel oil. There is still some construction rush expectation after the festival, but the significant increase in previous production may suppress prices [2]. - Polyester chain prices are expected to be volatile and weak, following the movement of crude oil prices. The supply of TA and EG is in a loose pattern, and the weak sales of polyester products are observed. Pay attention to potential sudden plant overhauls under low processing fees [2]. - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The end of the typhoon season leads to normal rubber tapping in major production areas, while the high inventory of tire finished products and tariff - disturbed demand result in a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand [4]. - Methanol prices are expected to be volatile. The domestic supply has recovered, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production, but future production growth is limited due to winter gas restrictions. Consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [4]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to be weak. The short - term production will remain at a high level, and although there is still support from downstream orders in October, the marginal increase will gradually decline [6]. - PVC prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply remains at a high level, domestic demand is slowing down, and exports are expected to be weak due to anti - dumping policies and trade frictions. The total inventory pressure is large [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI November contract closed down $0.79 to $58.70 per barrel, a 1.33% decline; Brent December contract closed down $0.93 to $62.39 per barrel, a 1.47% decline; SC2511 closed at 444.0 yuan per barrel, down 7.8 yuan per barrel, a 1.73% decline. The IEA predicts a supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in the world oil market next year, while OPEC +'s monthly report is less pessimistic [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of fuel oil FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 2700 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2512 closed down 1.14% at 3203 yuan per ton. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is sufficient, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively strong [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt BU2511 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.6% at 3290 yuan per ton. There is a construction rush expectation after the festival, but previous production increases may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4440 yuan per ton on Tuesday, down 1.55%; EG2601 closed at 4061 yuan per ton, down 1.22%. The polyester chain prices are weak and volatile, and the polyester operating rate is 91% [2]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2601 closed down 95 yuan per ton to 14845 yuan per ton; NR main contract closed down 50 yuan per ton to 11990 yuan per ton. In September, China's automobile production and sales increased significantly, but the supply - demand situation of rubber is unfavorable [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2285 yuan per ton. The domestic supply has recovered, and the Iranian Busher plant has resumed production, but future production growth is limited [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6550 - 6700 yuan per ton. The short - term production will remain high, and downstream demand growth is weakening [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the market prices of PVC in East, North, and South China continued to decline. The supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing down, and exports are expected to be weak [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on October 15, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc., covering spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The IEA predicts a large supply surplus in the world oil market next year, while OPEC +'s view is less pessimistic. Oil industry executives expect the global oil market to tighten in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil inventories are estimated to have increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories may have declined. The release of inventory reports by API and EIA has been postponed [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [12] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as the basis of crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [28] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various products, like the spread between fuel oil contracts 01 - 05 and 09 - 01 [43] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some products, such as the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit of PP [71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, due to rumors and weak overall commodity sentiment, the price has fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high while demand is weak with high inventory pressure. However, the downside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped. The supply has increased, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It's currently in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. - For polyethylene, the cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. - For polypropylene, the cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.90 yuan/barrel, a 0.64% decline, at 448.60 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil futures also declined. In Fujeirah Port, gasoline inventory decreased, while diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories increased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 15 yuan, Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 68 yuan to 2274 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 11 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to rumors and weak overall sentiment, the price fluctuated. Fundamentally, supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The downside space is limited, so it's advisable to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan, and in Henan, it fluctuated between - 10 and + 20 yuan. The 01 contract of the futures market decreased by 13 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 67 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the holiday, the futures price dropped, supply increased, demand was weak, and inventory was high. It's in a state of low valuation and weak drivers, so it's recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market expectation is highly uncertain, and the global risk - asset prices declined. The rubber price oscillated weakly. The long and short sides have different views on the price trend. Tire production rates decreased during the National Day holiday [10][11][12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Affected by the macro - environment, the short - term price has broken down. It's recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially rebuild the hedge position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 29 yuan to 4692 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 112 (- 1) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 312 (+ 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the overall operating rate increased. The downstream operating rate remained flat, and the inventory increased [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It's advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China decreased by 85 yuan/ton, and the spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate increased, the port inventory decreased, and the demand - side operating rate decreased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side shows a potential supply - surplus situation. The BZN spread has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is decreasing, and the price may stop falling temporarily [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 6918 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - side support for crude oil has weakened. The inventory is high, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract's closing price decreased by 91 yuan/ton to 6602 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 65 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased, inventory increased, and the downstream average operating rate increased slightly [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost side indicates a potential increase in supply surplus. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 92 yuan to 6338 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 12 dollars to 779 dollars. The load in China and Asia increased. Some domestic and overseas devices restarted or were under maintenance. The import from South Korea to China increased, and the inventory increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is high, downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance, and the inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is under pressure [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 70 yuan to 4440 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 60 yuan to 4380 yuan. The supply - side load decreased, and the downstream load remained flat. The inventory increased, and the spot processing fee increased while the futures processing fee decreased [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side maintenance volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues. However, the processing fee space is limited. The demand side may maintain a high load, but the terminal shows signs of weakness [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 4061 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 62 yuan to 4145 yuan. The supply - side load increased, and the downstream load remained flat. The import forecast increased, and the port inventory increased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is accumulating inventory. It's recommended to short on rallies [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyester market continues to operate under pressure due to the marginal weakening of demand and inventory pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On October 11, the PX main contract closed at 6,504.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of -84.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 0.0 yuan/ton, down 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the supply side, the PX plant operating rate remains relatively stable, but the expected commissioning of new plants and unplanned maintenance of some Asian factories create a mix of long and short factors, and the potential elasticity of the supply side may break the balance. The PTA industry load has rebounded to a relatively high level, and the short - term stock supply pressure has not been significantly relieved with the co - existence of plant restarts and load reductions, but the delay in the commissioning of new production capacity may ease the expectation of loose supply in the fourth quarter [2]. - On the demand side, although the polyester operating rate is at a high level, the inventory pressure of grey fabrics in the weaving end is transmitted to the polyester link. The lack of sustainability of new orders may restrict the replenishment demand for polyester raw materials. The trading volume of the Textile City has declined from the previous high, and the marginal weakening of the resilience of overseas orders and the seasonal weakening of domestic demand pose a test to the sustainability of the positive feedback in the industrial chain, and the support from the demand side may gradually decline [2]. - On the inventory side, the absolute value of PTA factory inventory is still in the low range in recent years, but the visible inventory has accumulated continuously in the past two weeks, and the weakening basis reflects insufficient spot drive. In the environment of compressed processing fees, the inventory contradiction in the industrial chain is transferred to the middle reaches. Attention should be paid to the impact of the manifestation of hidden inventory on the circulating supply, and the turning point of the inventory structure may be a signal of the price's phased inflection point [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On October 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,200.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,365.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 165.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The MA15 trading volume of the Textile City in the demand side fluctuated narrowly in the range of 857 - 862 million meters, not continuing the upward trend in the peak season, indicating insufficient downstream replenishment momentum. The inventory structure has prominent contradictions: the inventory of polyester staple fiber is 7.58 days, significantly higher than the 5 - year average of 4.96 days, becoming the main source of inventory accumulation pressure. The polyester filament varieties show obvious differentiation, with the POY inventory of 13.6 days significantly lower than the average of 20.4 days, while the FDY/DTY is slightly higher than the historical average. It is expected that the industrial chain will continue to operate weakly. The decline of crude - oil - related varieties on the cost side and the high inventory of polyester staple fiber may drive polyester factories to increase production cut - back efforts to balance supply and demand [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: On October 13, 2025, the PX futures main - contract price was 6,458 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.71% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume increased by 8,467 to 109,201 lots, an increase of 8.41%, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 12,852 to 49,851 lots, a decrease of 20.50%. The South Korea FOB price of PX spot was 767 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars or 0.90% from October 10. The PX basis was - 120 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 42.86% from October 10 [5]. - **PTA**: On October 13, 2025, the PTA futures main - contract price was 4,510 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.53% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume increased by 9,456 to 603,489 lots, an increase of 1.59%, and the main - contract open interest increased by 37,917 to 1,096,302 lots, an increase of 3.58%. The PTA 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 3.85% from October 10 [5]. - **Short - fiber**: On October 13, 2025, the short - fiber futures main - contract price was 6,166 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan or 0.55% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 43,754 to 119,500 lots, a decrease of 26.80%, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 28,801 to 47,106 lots, a decrease of 37.94%. The PF 1 - 5 spread was - 4 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 85.71% from October 10 [5]. - **Other products**: The US crude oil main - contract price was 59.14 US dollars/barrel on October 13, up 0.9 US dollars or 1.55% from October 10. The ethylene glycol price was 4,060 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 3.10% from October 10 [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macro Dynamics - On October 13, Trump's list of candidates for the Fed chair has been narrowed to five. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report at 8:30 am on October 24 (8:30 pm Beijing time). Trump said that if the Russia - Ukraine conflict cannot be resolved, the US may supply "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine [7]. - On October 10, the central bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo will start building gold reserves when the gold price soars. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts: Williams supports further interest - rate cuts, while Barr believes that interest - rate cuts should be cautious, and Kashkari basically agrees with Barr [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 11, the total trading volume of the Textile City was 9.04 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.75 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 2.31 million meters [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry is expected to operate weakly as the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are declining. PTA's game intensifies with the resonance of sentiment and fundamentals, and the sharp decline in crude oil. The PX market has few transactions, and the downstream polyester procurement stagnated during the festival. The domestic PTA production has declined, and the basis has slightly decreased with stable demand. For ethylene glycol, the port inventory in East China remains low, but the domestic device production is putting pressure on the price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 461.9 yuan/barrel on October 10th to 453.7 yuan/barrel on October 13th, a decrease of 8.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA-SC spread increased by 35.59 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0171. The PTA main futures price decreased by 24 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased by 9 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased by 16 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased by 6, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 32,580 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price decreased from 798 to 791, and the PX-naphtha spread decreased by 7 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main futures price increased by 11 yuan/ton, the MEG-naphtha spread increased by 1.6 yuan/ton, and the MEG domestic price decreased by 35 yuan/ton. The main basis increased by 2 [2]. Industry Chain Start-up Situation - PX start-up rate decreased from 86.21% to 85.57%, a decrease of 0.64%; PTA start-up rate increased from 75.70% to 77.20%, an increase of 1.50%; MEG start-up rate increased from 64.92% to 65.33%, an increase of 0.41%; polyester load remained unchanged at 89.38% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the cash flow increased by 30 yuan/ton; FDY150D/96F price decreased by 35 yuan/ton, and the cash flow increased by 20 yuan/ton; DTY150D/48F price decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the cash flow increased by 30 yuan/ton. The filament sales rate decreased from 57% to 52%, a decrease of 5% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased by 15 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the staple fiber sales rate decreased from 61% to 60%, a decrease of 1% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - glossy chip price decreased by 70 yuan/ton, the chip cash flow decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the chip sales rate decreased from 72% to 67%, a decrease of 5% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.25 million - ton PTA device in South China is currently restarting, which stopped around September 23rd, and another 1.1 million - ton PTA device has increased its load after operating at a low load last week [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 - Research Scope: Energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (polypropylene, PVC, plastic, styrene), polyester (PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), others (rubber) [2] - Strategy Suggestion: Build option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Market Conditions of Underlying Futures - Crude oil (SC2512): Latest price 454, up 0 (0.02%), trading volume 6.51 million lots (+ 3.49 million), open interest 3.11 million lots (+ 0.33 million) [3] - LPG (PG2511): Latest price 4,121, up 52 (1.28%), trading volume 5.24 million lots (- 0.56 million), open interest 5.86 million lots (- 0.44 million) [3] - Methanol (MA2512): Latest price 2,319, up 0 (0.00%), trading volume 4.95 million lots (+ 1.18 million), open interest 4.02 million lots (+ 0.22 million) [3] - And other varieties with detailed price, change, volume, and open - interest data provided [3] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - Crude oil: Volume PCR 1.11 (+ 0.41), Open - interest PCR 0.56 (- 0.03) [4] - LPG: Volume PCR 0.52 (- 0.13), Open - interest PCR 0.48 (- 0.07) [4] - Methanol: Volume PCR 0.68 (+ 0.01), Open - interest PCR 0.65 (+ 0.06) [4] - And other varieties with corresponding PCR data [4] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Crude oil: Pressure point 570, support point 440 [5] - LPG: Pressure point 4,700, support point 4,050 [5] - Methanol: Pressure point 2,300, support point 2,250 [5] - And other varieties with their respective pressure and support levels [5] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Crude oil: At - the - money implied volatility 27.545%, weighted implied volatility 35.73% (+ 3.29%), historical average 37.02% [6] - LPG: At - the - money implied volatility 16.82%, weighted implied volatility 22.03% (+ 1.86%), historical average 24.00% [6] - Methanol: At - the - money implied volatility 17.03%, weighted implied volatility 19.61% (+ 3.13%), historical average 21.83% [6] - And other varieties with implied volatility data [6] Group 6: Option Strategies for Different Varieties Crude Oil - Fundamental: OPEC+ started a new round of production increase of 1.65 million barrels per day in October, market worries about long - term supply surplus, and the production increase cycle will continue until next year. The situation in the Middle East has eased [7] - Market Analysis: Since July, it has been weak, with a downward trend in October [7] - Option Factors: Implied volatility fluctuates above the average; Open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates a weak market; Pressure point 570, support point 440 [7] - Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Sell a neutral call + put option combination; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long collar strategy [7] LPG - Fundamental: PDH device maintenance is stable, but profit is declining. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will decline after entering the peak season [9] - Market Analysis: After a decline in July, it has shown an oversold rebound with pressure [9] - Option Factors: Implied volatility drops to near the average; Open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates a weak market; Pressure point 4,700, support point 4,050 [9] - Strategies: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Sell a neutral call + put option combination; Spot long - hedging strategy: Build a long collar strategy [9] Other Varieties - Similar analysis and strategy suggestions are provided for methanol, ethylene glycol, polypropylene, rubber, polyester products, caustic soda, soda ash, and urea [9][10][11][12][13][14] Group 7: Charts - Charts for each variety include price trends, trading volume and open - interest, PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels [15][36][56][75][94][113][133][152][170][188]

Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the economic situation is influenced by the upcoming measures for counter-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on the timing of restarting government bond trading and the potential for interest rate cuts depending on the economic outlook for Q4 2025 [1][12][13] - The ECI supply index is at 49.99%, showing a slight decline, while the demand index is at 49.91%, indicating a mixed economic recovery influenced by the recent holidays [12][13] - The report highlights the potential limited impact of Trump's renewed tariff threats on the US economy, while emphasizing the need to monitor retaliatory measures and the escalation of trade conflicts into critical sectors like rare earths and semiconductors [1][12][14] Fixed Income - The report discusses the recent issuance of secondary capital bonds, with one bond issued at a scale of 1.2 billion yuan, and a total trading volume of approximately 44.5 billion yuan, which is a significant decrease from the previous week [3][20] - It notes the issuance of green bonds totaling approximately 15.25 billion yuan, with a decrease in trading volume to 41.8 billion yuan, indicating a cooling in the market [4][21] - The report suggests that investors should prioritize controllable pullbacks in convertible bonds and focus on performance improvement or valuation recovery rather than getting caught up in clause negotiations [15][18] Company Analysis - Hong Kong Travel (00308.HK) is focusing on core profitable businesses by divesting its tourism real estate assets, with projected net profits of 270 million, 420 million, and 600 million HKD for 2025-2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 31, 20, and 14 times [5][7] - Guangyang Co., Ltd. (002708) is expected to achieve revenues of 2.774 billion, 3.700 billion, and 4.795 billion yuan, with net profits of 108 million, 218 million, and 363 million yuan for 2025-2027, indicating a recovery in profitability and new growth opportunities in FPC, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots [8] - Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) anticipates net profits of 430 million, 650 million, and 820 million yuan for 2025-2027, benefiting from the recovery of the polyester industry and the upcoming production of its Qinzhou project [9] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) is projected to have net profits of 1.9 billion, 2.9 billion, and 4.1 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a focus on benefiting from stable growth policies in the petrochemical sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing a recovery, and Hengyi Petrochemical's Qinzhou project is about to commence production, positioning the company as a leading player in the industry [1] Industry Summary - The polyester industry is undergoing a recovery phase, with a focus on technological research and development, scale effects, and differentiated product development [1] - The industry is benefiting from policies aimed at stabilizing growth and reducing internal competition [1] Company Summary - Hengyi Petrochemical is leveraging its technological advantages and scale to strengthen its market position [1] - The Qinzhou integrated project is set to launch, which is expected to drive the company's growth [1] - The company anticipates that its 1.2 million tons of caprolactam-nylon project in Guangxi will begin production in the second half of 2025, contributing to its performance with products including civilian fibers, engineering plastics, and films [1] - The company is expected to enhance its upstream and downstream supply chain, leading to improved operational efficiency and profitability as industry consolidation deepens [1] - The company is rated with a "buy" recommendation due to its promising future growth potential [1]