投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-09-05 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250715 | 2025/06 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.20 | 5.40 | 4.70 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.40 | 49.30 | 49.10 | | 20250831 | 2025/08 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.10 | 50.30 | | 20250814 | 2025/07 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 11320.00 42251.00 | 7707.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20250813 | 2025/07 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 11.80 | 12.00 | 12.00 | | 2025081 ...

投资者注意力转向周五备受关注的非农就业报告。非农报告将让美联储政策制定者了解劳动力市场的最 新情况。 周五（9月5日）亚洲时段，英镑/美元小幅走高，最新英镑兑美元汇率报1.3450，涨幅0.13%，受Fed利 率前景和美债收益率下降支撑，英镑走势微升。 英镑/美元亚盘小幅上涨，就业数据公布前美债收益率触及数月低点，美国劳动力市场疲软迹象加剧， 为英镑/美元提供支撑。 周四的数据显示，上周初请失业金人数增幅超过预期，与劳动市场放缓的迹象一致。此外，ADP全美就 业报告显示，美国8月民间新增就业人数低于预期。 市场预计8月非农就业人数增加7.5万人，7月为增加7.3万人。市场还预测，8月失业率将从7月的4.2%升 至4.3%。 受美联储9月降息押注影响，两年期和10年期美债收益率触及5月1日以来低点，财政担忧缓解，英国债 市焦虑情绪消退，支撑英镑走势，英国企业报告就业人数创2021年以来最大降幅，令英国央行进退两 难。 英镑对美元汇率阻力位1.3460-65、1.3495-00，支撑位1.3400-05、1.3335-40，亚洲盘区间1.3436-55。 ...

周五（9月5日）亚洲时段，欧元/美元短线拉高，最新欧元兑美元汇率报1.1673，涨幅0.22%，机构调查 显示，绝大多数经济学家（69人中有66人）预计欧洲央行将在9月11日的会议上维持存款利率在2.00% 不变，这与市场预期一致。 在经济增长方面，经济学家预测欧元区经济今年将增长1.2%，明年增长1.1%，与8月调查结果基本持 平。 不过，经济学家们也提醒，该地区仍存在一些风险，例如德国经济的萎缩以及部分欧元区国家的政治不 稳定。 欧元对美元汇率周四下跌在1.1630之上受到支持，上涨在1.1670之下遇阻，意味着欧美短线下跌后有可 能保持上涨的走势。如果欧美今天下跌在1.1625之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向1.1665--1.1690之 间。今天欧元走势短线阻力在1.1660--1.1665，短线重要阻力在1.1685--1.1690。今天欧美短线支持在 1.1625--1.1630，短线重要支持在1.1605--1.1610。 机构调查显示，绝大多数经济学家（69人中有66人）预计欧洲央行将在9月11日的会议上维持存款利率 在2.00%不变，这与市场预期一致。 上月，经济学家们对欧洲央行是否会进一步 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.17, while spot silver opened at $40.66/oz and is currently around $40.72/oz. The silver T+D is trading at approximately 9752 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is at 9767 CNY/kg. Key focus today includes the US unemployment rate for August, adjusted non-farm payrolls, and average hourly wage changes [1] - On September 4, the dollar index rose by 0.13% to close at 98.27. Spot silver closed at $40.62/oz, down 1.38%, as the August "small non-farm" data fell short of expectations, causing silver to drop below $41/oz. Spot gold also saw a decline of 0.38% to $3545.53/oz, ending a seven-day rally [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 50.83 tons to 15230.57 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On September 4, the payment direction for deferred compensation fees was Ag(T+D)—short paying long [2] Economic Indicators - The US August "small non-farm" payrolls recorded an increase of 54,000, below the expected 65,000, with the previous value revised from 104,000 to 106,000. Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, the highest level since June [3] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US fell to 6.5%, the lowest since October 17 of the previous year, down from 6.56% the previous week. This decline may attract hesitant homebuyers, although many are still waiting for more significant rate cuts [4] Silver Price Analysis - The silver market opened at 41.191, experienced a slight rise to 41.221, and then saw a strong pullback, reaching a low of 40.387 before closing at 40.658. The market is currently awaiting non-farm payroll results, with suggested trading positions around 39.5 and targets set at 40.5, 40.7, and 41-41.2 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran's nomination to the Federal Reserve Board highlighted concerns about the independence of the Fed and whether Miran would act as a puppet of President Trump [3][6][10]. Group 1: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Miran emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence, stating it is "crucial" for the U.S. economy and denied any pressure to commit to supporting interest rate cuts [6][8]. - During the hearing, Miran faced skepticism from Senate Banking Committee members regarding his ability to maintain the Fed's independence, with some questioning his past proposals that could undermine it [4][10]. - Miran criticized the Fed's focus on climate change as a sign of political influence, asserting that the Fed should resist actions beyond its core responsibilities [9][11]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Nomination Process - The nomination process appears to be influenced by party politics, with Republican senators generally supporting Miran while Democrats express concerns about his potential impact on the Fed's independence [5][10]. - Miran's arrangement to take an unpaid leave from his role as a White House economic advisor during his tenure as a Fed governor raised eyebrows among senators, who viewed it as a conflict of interest [13][19]. - The White House is actively lobbying Republican senators to expedite Miran's confirmation before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17 [36][37]. Group 3: Economic Perspectives and Policy Views - Miran argued that tariffs have not significantly impacted inflation, suggesting that any price fluctuations are temporary [29][30]. - He expressed skepticism about the bond market's resistance to interest rate cuts, predicting that it would not react negatively to a potential rate decrease [32][37]. - Miran's views on economic policy, including the need for a comprehensive approach beyond just monetary policy, indicate a divergence from mainstream Fed perspectives [30][37].

春分时节的冀中平原，晨雾还未散尽，河北省涿州市刁窝镇潘各庄村的麦田里已响起嗡鸣声，村民杨某操控 的银灰色农业无人机腾空而起，机翼下的雾化喷头均匀洒出农药，机身掠过之处，麦浪泛起细密的"药雾涟漪"。 "一个小时能喷150亩地，抵得上20个工人忙一整天，用药量还比人工少30%，既省成本又环保。"杨某的手指 在遥控器上灵活操作，目光追随着无人机的飞行轨迹，语气里满是对这台"新农具"的认可。对他而言，这不仅是 无人机，更是他年初刚添的"新伙计"。"购买无人机的钱是从农行深圳市分行贷的，不需要抵押，只需要在手机上 操作，钱就到账了。"杨某说。 杨某的无人机在麦田上划出的，不只是一道农药轨迹，更是一条清晰的资金航线。它的起点远在千里之外的 深圳。支撑杨某更新设备的"飞手贷"，是农行深圳市分行为无人机科技企业定制的专属个贷产品，于2024年11月 上线。上线至今，农行深圳市分行的"飞手贷"已惠及农户超过1.3万户，涉及河南、山东、河北等全国主要农业省 份，累计投放贷款超7亿元，助力"科技下乡"，有力支持农业农村领域低空经济的应用和推广。 从河北农田里的一台无人机，到一条惠及万家的金融产品线。"飞手贷"勾勒出的，正是中国科技 ...

近日，中国外汇交易中心（以下简称"外汇交易中心"）与工商银行首尔分行共同举办了"聚债 CFETS"韩国境外机构推介会。本次会议聚焦中国债券市场及人民币资产投资机遇，由外汇交易中心及 工商银行业务骨干分享市场情况与投资展望，当地主要银行、券商、保险等金融机构代表参会。 外汇交易中心表示，下一步，将继续深化落实中国人民银行关于债券市场对外开放的各项部署，持 续优化互联互通各项机制，不断完善金融基础设施建设，与结算代理行和做市商携手为境外机构投资中 国债券市场提供更好服务。同时，将持续推出"聚债CFETS"系列会议，搭建在岸和离岸债券市场沟通桥 梁，为境内外机构建言献策提供交流平台，助力中国债券市场更高水平对外开放。 责任编辑：杨喜亭 工商银行首尔分行副行长芮晓恒表示，工行扎根韩国市场近30年，始终专注做好中韩经济金融互联 互通的桥梁。工商银行首尔分行是当地最大的人民币韩元做市商，并通过结算代理和债券通积极参与银 行间市场。未来，将助力更多韩国机构把握境内市场投资机遇，携手共赢。 外汇交易中心市场二部总经理卢向前在致辞中表示，从"北向通"到"南向通"再到"互换通"，债市双 向开放格局不断深化。外汇交易中心积极配合对 ...

如遇作品内容、版权等问题，请在相关文章刊发之日起30日内与本网联系。版权侵权联系电话：010-85202353 来源：新华财经 流程编辑：U022 人民银行5日开展1883亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与此前持平；鉴于当日有7829亿元逆 回购到期，公开市场实现净回笼5946亿元。本周，人民银行共开展10684亿元7天期逆回购操作，因当周 共有22731亿元7天期逆回购到期，公开市场实现净回笼12047亿元。 更多热点速报、权威资讯、深度分析尽在北京日报App ...

Group 1: Domestic News - The State Council issued an opinion to support qualified sports enterprises in listing, refinancing, issuing bonds, and asset securitization, aiming to enhance the financing services for the sports industry [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation released a plan to promote high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector, focusing on eliminating low-price competition and guiding local industries [3] - As of September 3, 537 special bond storage projects have been implemented nationwide, with a total scale of 146.6 billion yuan, primarily supporting the acquisition of existing residential properties [3] Group 2: International News - The US ISM Services PMI for August rose to 52, exceeding expectations, with the new orders index increasing significantly, indicating robust service sector activity despite a contraction in employment [4] - The ADP employment report for August showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 54,000 jobs added, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI and Brent crude down by 0.76% and 0.90% respectively, while natural gas prices continued to rise [6] Group 4: Financial Market - On September 4, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 212.6 billion yuan, with a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.6 billion yuan for the day [7] - The overall funding situation remained balanced and slightly loose, with DR001 and DR007 rates rising to 1.315% and 1.449% respectively [8] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed weak fluctuations, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising to 1.7535% [10] - The secondary market for credit bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "H9 Long Control 01" dropping over 12% and "H1 Bi Di 01" increasing over 599% [12] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the equity market downwards, with major indices declining, and trading volume increasing to 89.164 billion yuan [14] - Several convertible bonds announced adjustments to their conversion prices, with some opting not to adjust [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On September 2, the overall liquidity remained balanced and loose; the bond market oscillated within a narrow range; the main indices of the convertible bond market declined collectively, and most convertible bond issues fell; yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally rose, and yields on 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Bond Market News (1) Domestic News - The "Declaration of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on Further Strengthening Scientific and Technological Innovation Cooperation" was released, with member states planning to strengthen cooperation in areas such as policy communication, AI research, and resource integration [3]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Tax Administration issued a notice on tax policies for the operation and management of state-owned equity and cash proceeds transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income [4]. - The central bank announced liquidity injection data for August, with net MLF injection of 300 billion yuan, net PSL withdrawal of 160.8 billion yuan, and net open - market repurchase injection of 300 billion yuan [4]. - The National Inter - bank Funding Center and the Shanghai Clearing House optimized the general repurchase trading and clearing mechanism in the inter - bank bond market, expanding the scope of eligible collateral [5]. (2) International News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, contracting for the sixth consecutive month. New orders expanded, while output declined, and employment remained weak [6]. (3) Commodities - International crude oil and natural gas prices rose. WTI October crude futures rose 2.47% to $65.59/barrel, Brent November crude futures rose 1.45% to $69.14/barrel, COMEX December gold futures rose 2.42% to $3601/ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 0.27% to $2.990/ounce [7]. 2. Liquidity (1) Open Market Operations On September 2, the central bank conducted 255.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate. With 405.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal of funds was 150.1 billion yuan [9]. (2) Funding Rates Despite two consecutive days of net withdrawal by the central bank, the overall liquidity remained balanced and loose. DR001 rose 0.19bp to 1.314%, and DR007 fell 0.79bp to 1.438% [10]. 3. Bond Market Dynamics (1) Interest - Rate Bonds - Yields on 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 0.10bp to 1.7675%, and yields on 10 - year CDB bond active issue 250215 fell 0.25bp to 1.8675% [13]. - There were no Treasury or CDB bond issuances on that day [14]. (2) Credit Bonds - Three industrial bonds and one urban investment bond had trading price deviations of over 10%. "H1 碧地 02" fell over 80%, "H1 碧地 01" fell over 75%, "H1 龙控 01" fell over 34%, and "20 永兴债 01" fell over 19% [15][16]. - Multiple credit events occurred, including debt restructuring of Kaisa Group, legal disputes of Rongqiao Group, cancellation of bond issuances by some companies, rating adjustments of some companies, and bankruptcy reorganization of some subsidiaries [18]. 4. Equity and Convertible Bond Market (1) Equity and Convertible Bond Indices - The three major A - share indices fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index down 0.45%, 2.14%, and 2.85% respectively, and the total trading volume was 2.91 trillion yuan. Most Shenwan primary industries declined [19]. - The main convertible bond indices fell collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index fell 0.88%, 0.71%, and 1.14% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 105.714 billion yuan, an increase of 14.611 billion yuan from the previous trading day [19]. (2) Convertible Bond Tracking - Some convertible bonds announced changes in conversion prices, including Huayang Convertible Bond's downward adjustment, Baichang Convertible Bond's decision not to adjust, and Zhekuang Convertible Bond's expected trigger of downward adjustment conditions. Some convertible bonds were expected to trigger early redemption conditions [23]. 5. Overseas Bond Market (1) US Bond Market - Yields on US Treasuries of various maturities generally rose, with the 2 - year yield up 7bp to 3.69% and the 10 - year yield up 5bp to 4.28%. The yield spread between 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 62bp, and the spread between 5 - year and 30 - year US Treasuries narrowed by 2bp to 123bp. The 10 - year TIPS break - even inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.41% [24][25][26]. (2) European Bond Market - Yields on 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally rose, with Germany's up 4bp to 2.79%, France's up 5bp, Italy's up 7bp, Spain's up 5bp, and the UK's up 4bp [27]. (3) Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - Some Chinese - issued US dollar bonds had price increases, such as those of the Chinese government, Sunac China, and Country Garden. Some had price decreases, such as those of Agile Group, Lenovo Group, and Pinduoduo [29].