Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metals market, particularly silver, has seen unprecedented inflows and price increases, with silver futures experiencing a significant rise in both trading volume and price, indicating strong investor interest and market dynamics [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 24, domestic platinum, palladium, silver, copper, and gold all reached new historical highs, with silver futures seeing a daily increase of 8.12% [3]. - The net inflow of funds into silver futures on December 24 was nearly 6.5 billion yuan, with a total open interest of approximately 820,000 contracts, indicating a substantial accumulation of capital [1][3]. - The price of the main silver futures contract has surpassed 17,600 yuan per kilogram, marking a new record [3]. Group 2: Comparative Analysis - From the beginning of December to the present, the domestic silver futures have increased by 38.36%, significantly outpacing international silver prices, which rose by 25.4% in New York and 26% in London during the same period [2]. - The domestic silver fund, Guotou Silver LOF, has seen a remarkable increase of 103.93% since early December, with an annual increase of 254.9%, far exceeding the monthly and annual increases of silver futures [4]. Group 3: Fund and Investment Dynamics - The Guotou Silver LOF fund has experienced a trading halt due to its price being significantly higher than its net asset value, indicating potential risks for investors [7]. - Other commodity funds, including those focused on precious metals, have also announced trading halts due to similar pricing discrepancies, highlighting the volatility in the market [9]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented new trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures to manage the high volatility and speculative trading [10][11]. - The CME Group has also raised margin requirements for silver futures, aiming to curb excessive leverage in the market, which historically has led to significant price corrections [11].

Core Viewpoint - The global metal market in 2025 is experiencing unprecedented price surges across various metals, driven by a combination of supply-demand imbalances, policy adjustments, and industrial upgrades, marking the beginning of a new valuation cycle for the metal industry [1] Precious Metals - Gold prices have surpassed $4,500 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 60%, supported by global uncertainties and central bank purchases, with over 1,000 tons of net gold bought by central banks in 2025 [1] - Silver has doubled in price, driven by a 50% year-on-year increase in silver demand for photovoltaic applications, with industrial demand significantly boosting silver prices [2] - Platinum and palladium are supported by hydrogen energy and automotive recovery, with ETF holdings rising, indicating a positive market trend for these metals [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have reached over $12,200 per ton, with a year-on-year increase of over 30%, driven by demand from electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI data centers, while supply disruptions have led to a projected global refined copper shortage of 150,000 tons in 2025 [3] - Nickel prices have seen significant fluctuations due to policy changes in Indonesia and domestic stockpiling, with a potential for price recovery in 2026 as demand remains stable [3][4] New Energy Metals - Lithium prices have increased by 28% since July, supported by new regulations that eliminate inefficient production and rising demand from energy storage and electric vehicles, with a projected penetration rate of over 40% for new energy vehicles in 2025 [4] - Cobalt prices have surged over 130% due to tightened export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds 70% of global cobalt resources, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain [4] Strategic Metals - Strategic metals like tungsten, gallium, and germanium are experiencing price surges due to their irreplaceable roles in key industries, with China controlling 98% of global gallium production and 70% of germanium production, leading to an 84% increase in gallium prices in 2025 [5] - The combination of policy support and technological advancements is transforming strategic metals from mere resources into strategic assets, with ongoing value reassessment in the industry [5] 2026 Outlook - The metal market is expected to shift from broad increases to structural differentiation, with copper projected to reach $13,000 per ton due to limited supply and structural demand from new energy and AI [6] - Precious metals are likely to experience high volatility but remain supported by safe-haven and industrial demand, while strategic metals are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend due to solidifying global pricing power [7] Conclusion - The 2025 metal market reflects a broader energy revolution and industrial upgrade, with metals playing a crucial role in supporting new productive forces, indicating a significant opportunity for those who can navigate the evolving landscape of supply-demand dynamics, policy, and technology [8]

每经AI快讯，12月25日，截至午盘，上证指数涨0.29%，深证成指跌0.11%，创业板指跌0.38%，北证50 涨1.04%。全市场成交额12119亿元，较上日成交额放量527亿元。 板块题材上，造纸、商业航天板块活跃，贵金属、能源金属调整。 盘面上，造纸板块走强，恒达新材（301469）20CM涨停封板，博汇纸业（600966）、宜宾纸业 （600793）、五洲特纸（605007）涨停封板。商业航天全线爆发，广联航空（300900）20CM涨停封 板，神剑股份（002361）、上海港湾（605598）、中天火箭（003009）、江顺科技（001400）等数十只 个股涨停封板。贵金属板块走弱，招金黄金（000506）、湖南白银（002716）跌超4%。能源金属板块 调整，天齐锂业（002466）、盛新锂能（002240）、融捷股份（002192）跌超4%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at highs [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential rise in demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 980 yuan/gram and 1080 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to remain volatile but at a historically high level, with a significant narrowing of the gold-silver ratio. There is a risk of a pullback due to profit-taking, and the Ag2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 16800 yuan/kg and 17800 yuan/kg [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced 20 details of the Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" draft, but the key territorial issue remains unresolved [1] - Economic data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to 214,000, and the market still expects two interest rate cuts by the end of 2026 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1015.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1014.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1010.30 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2] - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 16,510.00 yuan/kg and closed at 17,609.00 yuan/kg, a change of 7.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,367,254 lots, and the open interest was 348,865 lots. The night session closed at 17,211 yuan/kg, down 2.26% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.63%, also unchanged [3] Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,755 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,264 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 491,223 lots, a change of 29.19% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 6,459 lots, and the short positions increased by 12,636 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 3,301,271 lots, a change of 38.32% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,064.56 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 24, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -4.74 yuan/gram, and for silver was -1,611.92 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 57.62, a change of -6.59% from the previous trading day, and the overseas ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On December 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 55,632 kg, a change of -10.36% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 1,010,776 kg, a change of 23.70%. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 26,760 kg [7]

Core Insights - The commodity market in 2025 is characterized as a "structural bull market," with significant annual gains in gold and silver, while oil prices face pressure due to supply-demand dynamics [1] - Goldman Sachs' 2026 Commodity Outlook indicates a trend towards "increasing differentiation" in the commodity market, with overall returns expected to moderate but significant disparities among different commodities [1][2] - Key factors influencing the market include the geopolitical tensions between the US and China, the competition in AI, and dual supply shocks in the energy market [1][2] Commodity Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their strong performance into 2026, with gold prices projected to reach $4,900 per ounce and silver between $50-$60 per ounce [3][6] - Industrial metals like copper are forecasted to maintain a strong price trajectory, with potential average prices between $11,400 and $12,075 per ton, driven by demand from technology and energy transitions [6][8] - The oil market is anticipated to face downward pressure, with Goldman Sachs predicting Brent and WTI crude oil prices to average $56 and $52 respectively in 2026, reflecting a supply surplus [8] Economic and Policy Context - The shift from "monetary easing + fiscal tightening" to "fiscal expansion + accelerated de-globalization" has highlighted the value of physical assets, creating structural opportunities in commodities [2] - The expected continuation of a loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2026 is seen as a catalyst for increased investment in commodities, as it lowers the opportunity cost of holding these assets [2] Market Dynamics - The energy market is expected to experience significant changes due to supply shocks in both oil and LNG, impacting pricing and availability [1][8] - The agricultural market's performance in 2026 is uncertain, with potential impacts from climate anomalies and trade policy changes affecting supply and demand dynamics [8] Strategic Focus - The 2026 commodity market will require a nuanced approach, moving away from a one-size-fits-all investment strategy to focus on structural opportunities influenced by geopolitical and technological factors [10]

行业 贵金属日评 2025 年 12 月 25 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 日期 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然美国三季度经济增速远超市场预期推高美债利率，但市场臆测联邦政府 停摆将拖累美国四季度经济增长，同时美联储主席候选人继续呼吁美联储降息， 美元指数跌破 98 关口，流动性溢价与计价货币因素继续推动贵金属板块偏强运 行；广期所铂钯行情未见停止迹象，但近期价格飙升也累积了内在调整风险，加 上圣诞节期间成交稀少价格波动性上升，建议投资者适当降低仓位。总体看在年 底消费旺季、美联储宽松货币政策和全球增长前景改善等因素影响下，近期贵金 属板块特别是工 ...

重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货持平，报 4505.4 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货涨 1.04%，报 71.88 美元/盎司。沪金收跌 0.16%报 6088 元/克，沪银 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月25日，早盘贵金属板块震荡走弱，浩通科技、贵研铂业、盛达资源、白银有色、国 城矿业均跌超5%，湖南黄金、山东黄金、西部黄金等跟跌。 ...

摘要今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市。现货黄金盘中触及4526.15美元历史新高后小幅回落，可能形成 看跌收盘反转顶部形态，但因圣诞假期临近，此次回落或为投资者获利了结。美元指数小幅回升，对金 价涨势影响有限，逢低买盘持续。 今日周四(12月25日)因圣诞节休市。现货黄金盘中触及4526.15美元历史新高后小幅回落，可能形成看跌 收盘反转顶部形态，但因圣诞假期临近，此次回落或为投资者获利了结。美元指数小幅回升，对金价涨 势影响有限，逢低买盘持续。 美国国债收益率几无变动，交易员观望。黄金突破4500美元非孤立现象，避险需求等支撑涨势。目前市 场缺乏利空催化剂，买方主导。分析师认为，央行购金步伐放缓是涨势唯一威胁，若维持当前水平，预 计2026年底金价达5000美元。 美国劳工部最新数据显示，截至12月20日当周，季调后初请失业金人数录得21.4万人，环比减少1万 人，连续两周下降且低于市场预期的22.4万人，四周移动平均值同步降至21.675万人，短期新裁员压力 有所缓解。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 黄金白盘先涨后跌，于4500关口震荡。晚盘因明日停盘，或震荡收尾，4小时现墓碑线，短期难续单边 行情，预计 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals experienced a significant surge recently, with spot gold reaching a historical high of $4,525 per ounce, spot silver surpassing $70 per ounce for the first time, and spot platinum breaking $2,300 per ounce [1] - Following the sharp increase, there was a collective pullback in precious metals, with spot gold dropping to $4,448 per ounce, spot silver to $70.1 per ounce, and spot palladium to $1,676 per ounce [1] - Analysts attribute the recent surge in precious metals to a combination of expectations for liquidity easing, geopolitical instability, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2 - Affected stocks in the A-share market saw declines, with Guoyan Platinum down 5.76%, Yinxing Nonferrous down 5.26%, and Shengda Resources down 4.62% [2] - Other notable declines included Guocheng Mining down 4.56%, CITIC Metal down 3.70%, and Hunan Silver down 3.56% [2] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains for some companies, with Shengda Resources up 147.97% and Yinxing Nonferrous up 100.72% [2]