【东财宏观-反内卷系列微专题】近期"反内卷"升温下的投资机会 [太阳]1.本轮"反内卷"较此前的三大不同 ➽#范围更广。上轮"去产能"聚焦于上游资源品（煤炭、钢铁为主）；本轮"反内卷"治理领域扩大至中、下游，既 包括传统上游产业，也涵盖汽车等中下游产业以及互联网平台、光伏、新能源等新兴产业领域，涉及企业面更 广。 ➽#更注重价。具体举措方面，上轮"去产能"更多采用对产量与产能的直接约束与治理，关于量的举措多于价格层 面的举措；本轮"反内卷 【东财宏观-反内卷系列微专题】近期"反内卷"升温下的投资机会 [太阳]1.本轮"反内卷"较此前的三大不同 ➽#加强价格监测与价格执法。各部委关于"反内卷"的工作部署中，多次提及强化价格监测与价格执法。比如，1 月22日，财政部发布《 查找图书 》，明确要求在政府采购评审中的多种情形应启动异常低价投标审查程序。 ➽#通过标准引导落后产能出清。除了出台行业标准与加强价格监测执法，本轮"反内卷"仍然保留了必要的产能出 清的措施，但更多通过提高行业标准引导而非强制性进行。 [太阳]3.本轮"反内卷"有哪些投资机会？ ➽#近期"反内卷"政策在部委协同、制度支持、落地节奏方面已经出现加 ...

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the steel industry, highlighting key insights and future projections for 2026 as a pivotal year for the sector [1]. Core Insights 1. **Positive Outlook on Supply Reform Probability**: - Feasibility is supported by the identification of potential hidden expansions and data falsification, with a capacity of 200 million tons available [1]. - Necessity arises from the shift in primary conflicts from central-local to international dynamics [1]. 2. **Negative Outlook on Raw Material Prices**: - A reversal in supply-demand dynamics is expected between 2027 and 2028, with inventory adjustments anticipated in Q2-Q3 of 2026 [1]. - A bearish framework suggests a price drop of at least $20, indicating that steel companies maintain bargaining power against iron ore suppliers [1]. 3. **Positive Cash Flow Improvement**: - By 2025, energy efficiency benchmarks and ultra-low emissions standards are expected to be largely achieved, leading to a convergence of capital expenditures to depreciation levels [1]. - This shift is projected to create a doubling of space for dividends [1]. 4. **Recommendation for Hualing**: - Hualing is recommended as a balanced investment opportunity, with a golden allocation period identified between March and April, and an expected increase in EPS by 2-3 times over the next three years [1]. Additional Important Points 1. **Certainty of Iron Ore Price Decline**: - Discussion includes the expected timing, rhythm, and extent of the price decline for iron ore [1]. 2. **Short-term and Long-term Effects of Export Controls**: - Short-term impacts include market segmentation, while long-term signals indicate a transformation in primary conflicts [1]. 3. **Impact of Dual Carbon Policies on the Steel Industry**: - The implications and significance of dual carbon policies for the steel sector are addressed [1].

➽#范围更广。 上轮"去产能"聚焦于上游资源品（煤炭、钢铁为主）；本轮"反内卷"治理领域扩大至中、下游，既包括传统上游产 业，也涵盖汽车等中下游产业以及互联网平台、光伏、新能源等新兴产业领域，涉及企业面更广。 ➽#更注重价。 具体举措方面，上轮"去产能" 【东财宏观-反内卷系列微专题】近期"反内卷"升温下的投资机会 1.本轮"反内卷"较此前的三大不同 ➽#范围更广。 【东财宏观-反内卷系列微专题】近期"反内卷"升温下的投资机会 1.本轮"反内卷"较此前的三大不同 目前来看，无论是煤炭等传统的能源和资源领域，还是在新能源汽车、光伏等新兴行业，部委层面对于"反内 卷"的工作推进更多是通过出台优化相应的行业规范与能效标准，引导产业提质增效。 ➽#加强价格监测与价格执法。 上轮"去产能"聚焦于上游资源品（煤炭、钢铁为主）；本轮"反内卷"治理领域扩大至中、下游，既包括传统上游产 业，也涵盖汽车等中下游产业以及互联网平台、光伏、新能源等新兴产业领域，涉及企业面更广。 ➽#更注重价。 具体举措方面，上轮"去产能"更多采用对产量与产能的直接约束与治理，关于量的举措多于价格层面的举措；本 轮"反内卷"更多通过对定价层面的指导与 ...

2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：原料短期价格松动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：产业叠加资金配合，区间震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需趋于双弱，煤价企稳小幅探涨 | 9 | | 原木：区间震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 28 日 铁矿石：刚需仍存，价格震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 3.5 | 0.45% | | | I2605 | ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/28 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/01/21 | 3110 | 3260 | 3310 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 2026/01/22 | 3110 | 3260 | 3310 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 2026/01/23 | 3160 | 3260 | 3350 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 2026/01/26 | 3160 | 3290 | 3350 | 3240 | 3420 | 3340 | | 2026/01/27 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 变化 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | 上海冷卷 | 乐从冷卷 | | 2026/ ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-28 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-28 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美伊冲突或有升级，美元重挫，黄金又新高 观点分享： 美伊冲突或有升级，美元重挫，黄金又新高。昨天市场的波动基本上都被美伊冲突升级 的可能性所带动，美国在中东加强军事部署，和据相关人士爆料美国可能对伊朗动武的消息 极大的增加了市场的担忧。加之美国消费者信心指数创近年来新低、特朗普表示不担心美元 下跌、同时同时市场开始加注周三(今日晚间)公布的联储利率决议暂停降息等诸多因素的影 响，美元出现大幅下滑。受此影响，贵金属也因此保持了强势，黄金价格再创历史新高；离 岸人民币三年来也首次涨破 6.94。日元三连涨，欧元和英镑也创下三年来新高。正在股市方 面，市场表现的仍然较为强势。在美股科技公司财报公布之际，市场对盈利预期较为乐观。 标普创下历史新高；欧洲方面主要国家股市也都基本保持了上涨的趋势。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 生猪 | ★★★★ | 生猪：旺季预期落空，近端供应压力显现。近期生猪现货市场表现出两个异常 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current black building materials market is under real - world pressure, with the futures market running weakly. The slow resumption of steel mills, high iron ore shipments and inventories, and the weakening support of coal - coke restocking all contribute to the weak market. In the off - season, the steel inventory accumulation pressure is increasing, the cost support is loosening, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Although there is downward pressure on the short - term futures market, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Iron ore arrivals have decreased, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side due to weather. Scrap steel supply has rebounded, and daily consumption is expected to decline [2] - **Demand**: Before the festival, restocking supports ore prices, but the actual supply - demand situation on both sides remains to be verified. Scrap steel consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and there are still expectations of steel mill复产 and winter restocking demand. The contradiction in the supply - demand structure is limited, and spot price increases are still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The demand side is still in the process of winter restocking, and the supply side is expected to see a decline in coal mine production near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has priced in the winter restocking, the positive driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is under pressure, but the room for further decline is limited, and it is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions. The poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [3] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has shifted downwards, and the futures market is running weakly. The spot market trading is generally weak, the steel mill profitability rate is improving, the iron water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the short - term futures market still has downward pressure, but the downward space is limited [10] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and port trading has decreased month - on - month. Overseas mine shipments have increased, arrivals have weakened, and the supply side is affected by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. Port and steel mill inventories are increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Scrap Steel**: This week's arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply has declined slightly, demand is expected to decrease, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [12] - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the cost support is strong. The steel mills are resistant to price increases, and the environmental protection disturbances are frequent. The demand side has a slight increase in iron water output, and the inventory is increasing. Spot price increases are still expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12][14] - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is stable, and the supply is stable with high imports. The demand side is in the process of winter restocking, and the inventory is gradually reaching the target. After the futures market has priced in the restocking, the positive driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [15] - **Glass**: The spot price has risen month - on - month, and the futures market oscillates. The supply side has limited losses, and there is unlikely to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand side is weak, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, prices will be weakly oscillating; otherwise, prices will rise [16] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased month - on - month, and the spot contradictions are limited. The supply side has a slight increase in daily output, the demand side has a weakening trend, and the supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is weakly sorted. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The trading atmosphere is poor, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is weak, and the trading activity suppresses the upward space. It is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [19]

黑色建材日报 2026-01-28 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3126 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 17 元/吨（-0.54%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 171.47 万手，环比减少 16197 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3289 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 13 元/吨（-0.39%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 150.84 万手，环比减少 6369 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪较好，成材价格继续在底部区间内震荡。基本面方面，热轧卷板供需双双回落，库 存水平逐步下降并趋 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年01月28日08时21分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹产量环比增加 ，整体库存增加，螺纹表观需求环比回落，五大品种表观需求整体回落，库存增加，产量基本维持不 变。整体来看，目前市场整体处于消费淡季，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位回升。央行下调再贷款再贴现利率在一定程度上提振市场信心 ，未 来仍有降准和降息的空间，不排除央行将很快行动。从技术面看，目前期价在上下 100 元/吨的区间窄幅震荡，可能面临方向选择 操作建议： 多单轻仓持有，待期价回落至震荡区间下沿附近后再逢低加仓 ，中线交易。不可以追涨杀跌 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3126 | -17 | -0.54% | 15 | 0.48% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3289 ...

特朗普最新表态对于弱势美元较为满意，市场风险偏好上升， 美元指数明显走弱。 宏观策略（股指期货） 12 月规上工企利润同比增 5.3% 综 A 股震荡缩量上涨，市场仍有一定韧性，但逻辑主线近期较为混 乱，投机情绪主导行情。未来随着监管层持续加码，我们认为 风格差异或将收敛。仍建议均衡配置各股指多头。 日度报告——综合晨报 美元走弱，金价再创新高 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-28 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国消费者信心跌至 2014 年以来低点 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 CME 调整白银保证金 报 金价再度上涨创新高，主要受到美元指数大跌的驱动，一方面 是市场对美元信用的担忧持续强化，对黄金储备需求增加。一 方面是日本有联合干预外汇市场的预期，美元大跌利多黄金 有色金属（锡） Alphamin 2025 年锡矿产量 18,576 吨 印尼拟出台锡的最低成本价格机制 能源化工（原油） API 美国原油库存下降 油价上涨，因供应扰动因素支撑油价。 未获得东证期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。本报告的信息均来源于 公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作 ...