Report Overview - Report Title: Bean Meal Morning Report - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Bean Meal (M2601)**: Expected to oscillate in the range of 3000 - 3060. Influenced by US soybean trends, demand in the off - season, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **Soybean (A2601)**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4080 - 4180. Supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but restricted by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Bean Meal**: Oscillates and declines, affected by US soybean trends, demand off - season, and spot price discounts. Expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [9]. - **Soybean**: Rises and then falls, influenced by US soybean trends, with the cost of imported soybeans supporting the price and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppressing it [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills declined from a high level. - The decrease in domestic pig - raising profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for bean meal in November. - The bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Bean meal is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, pending further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in November and the expected high yield of US soybeans [14]. Soybean - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Bean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 42, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill bean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase year - on - year [9]. - **Soybean**: Spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 45, indicating a discount to futures. Oil mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week and a 29.06% increase year - on - year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Bean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybean**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Price and Volume**: The trading volume and average price of bean meal and the price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report [16]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets are provided, showing data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [32][33]. - **Sowing and Harvesting Progress**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina are detailed [34][35][39]. - **USDA Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months are included, showing data on planting area, yield, production, etc. [44]. - **Industry Conditions**: Information on the arrival volume of imported soybeans, soybean inventory of oil mills, soybean crushing volume, and the situation of the pig - raising industry is provided [47][48][55].

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national market prices for edible agricultural products remained stable from November 10 to 16, with no change compared to the previous week [1] - Wholesale prices for grains and oils were mostly stable, with rice and rapeseed oil holding steady, while soybean oil and peanut oil decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, and flour increased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product prices showed slight fluctuations, with eggs decreasing by 0.3% and white-cut chicken increasing by 0.2% [1] - Meat wholesale prices experienced minor changes, with pork priced at 18.42 yuan per kilogram, down by 1.0%, while beef remained stable and lamb increased by 0.3% [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.67 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.4%, with cauliflower, rapeseed, and broccoli decreasing by 7.8%, 7.6%, and 4.9% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for aquatic products slightly declined, with crucian carp, silver carp, and grass carp decreasing by 1.4%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, grapes, and pears rising by 3.7%, 1.0%, and 0.2% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - The prices of basic chemical raw materials predominantly increased, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 4.1% and 0.2% respectively, while polypropylene and methanol decreased by 0.3% and 0.2% [2] - Wholesale prices for refined oil showed a slight recovery, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline increasing by 1.4%, 1.1%, and 0.9% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals experienced slight increases, with aluminum, copper, and zinc rising by 2.0%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2] - Coal prices continued to rise, with coking coal, thermal coal, and anthracite priced at 1076 yuan, 788 yuan, and 1165 yuan per ton, increasing by 1.7%, 1.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices showed a slight rebound, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber increasing by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices saw a slight increase, with compound fertilizer and urea rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained mostly stable, with rebar and high-speed wire priced at 3320 yuan and 3516 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively, while channel steel remained stable and ordinary medium plate and hot-rolled strip decreased by 0.4% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils showing a weak and volatile pattern, while agricultural by - products and soft commodities like sugar and cotton maintain a volatile or weak - consolidation trend [2]. - For investment strategies, it is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Multiple agricultural product futures show price changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,128, down 23 (-0.55%); soybean No.2 (B2601) is 3,742, down 15 (-0.40%); etc. [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open - interest PCR values. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.48, and the open - interest PCR is 1.16 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure point of soybean No.1 is 4,200, and the support point is 4,050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility varies among different option varieties. For example, the implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.405 (at - the - money implied volatility) [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamentals show that Brazilian soybean planting progress is slow, and the market has formed a pattern of oversold rebound. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.70. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The fundamentals show changes in trading volume, delivery volume, basis, and inventory. The market shows a pattern of oversold rebound. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamentals show that the spot basis of oils has increased slightly, and the total inventory is decreasing. The market shows a pattern of low - level consolidation. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is above 1.00. Strategies include constructing a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanuts**: The fundamentals show that the price of peanut oil is stable, and the peanut market is affected by factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell. The market shows a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The fundamentals show that the spot price of pigs has decreased, and the market shows a pattern of weak bearish decline. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.50. Strategies include constructing a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - covered strategy [10]. - **Eggs**: The fundamentals show changes in the inventory of laying hens. The market shows a pattern of rebound and slight consolidation under pressure. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apples**: The fundamentals show that the apple storage is nearing completion, and the inventory is lower than in previous years. The market shows a pattern of continuous rebound and high - level consolidation under pressure. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is above 0.90. Strategies include constructing a long - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujubes**: The fundamentals show that the purchase price of jujubes in different regions has changed, and the market shows a pattern of weak bearish decline. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility has risen rapidly to above the historical average, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.50. Strategies include constructing a short - biased short - strangle option combination strategy and a long - covered hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The fundamentals show an increase in sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region and India's sugar export policy. The market shows a pattern of weak bearish decline. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open - interest PCR is around 0.60. Strategies include constructing a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: The fundamentals show the progress of cotton picking, delivery, processing, and sales. The market shows a short - term weak pattern. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility is at a relatively low level, and the open - interest PCR is below 1.00. Strategies include constructing a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - covered strategy [13]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: The fundamentals show an increase in the national average price of corn. The market shows a pattern of weak rebound under pressure. Option - related factors indicate that the implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open - interest PCR is below 0.60. Strategies include constructing a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [13].

Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for different asset classes are as follows: - Index: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term shock, cautious long [2] - Commodity sectors: - Black metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term shock, short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Core Views - The global market is affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations, domestic economic growth, and policy stimulus. The short - term upward drive of the macro - economy has weakened, and different asset classes show short - term shock characteristics. Attention should be paid to domestic economic growth and the implementation of incremental policies [2][3] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Overseas, the Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, and many thought it was not suitable to cut interest rates in December. The market expected no rate cut this year, leading to a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted Treasury bond trading to release liquidity. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, and the index will be in short - term shock [2] - Index: Driven by sectors such as precious metals, it rose slightly. Affected by economic data and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term upward drive has weakened, and it will be in short - term shock. Short - term cautious wait - and - see [3] - Precious metals: The market rose slightly at night on Wednesday. Affected by the Fed's possible inaction in December and the strong US dollar, short - term shock, long - term upward pattern remains. Short - term cautious wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures markets declined on Wednesday. Demand continued to weaken, inventory decreased, and production decreased. There are no new contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range [4][6] - Iron ore: The spot price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the futures price remained strong. The bottom of iron - making water production is uncertain, supply has changed slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [6] - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: The spot price was flat on Wednesday, and the futures price was affected by coal. Demand is still poor, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range [7] - Soda ash: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply decreased marginally but remained loose, and demand improved marginally. Short - term range shock, long - term bearish [8] - Glass: The main contract was weak on Wednesday. Supply was stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was at a high level. It is expected to run weakly in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rebounded slightly. Supply concerns still exist, but US and domestic inventories are high, and there is a risk of price decline [10] - Aluminum: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum prices rebounded. Technically, there may be room for further rebound, but inventory is at a three - year high, and there may be a large correction later [10] - Tin: Supply is tight, demand is weak, inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [11] - Lithium carbonate: The main contract rose on Wednesday. The price of lithium ore increased, and the trading volume increased. Hold long positions cautiously [12] - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. The organic silicon industry plans to reduce emissions and support prices. Pay attention to the continuation of funds and buy on dips [12] - Polysilicon: The main contract rose on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [13][14] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: EIA data showed an increase in US refined oil inventories, and the hope of restarting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a decline in oil prices. It is expected to remain under pressure [15] - Asphalt: The price remained low. Inventory was decreasing slightly, but demand was weak, and the over - supply pressure was high. Pay attention to the fluctuation of crude oil [15] - PX: The import from Japan is uncertain, and PTA demand provides some support. It is in a tight supply situation, and pay attention to cost changes [16] - PTA: The import of PX is uncertain, and downstream demand is weak. The supply is high, and the long - term bearish pressure is large [16] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory has accumulated significantly, downstream demand is weakening, and the price is expected to remain low and fluctuate [16] - Short fiber: It rebounded slightly in the short term, but the later pressure is large. The terminal orders are decreasing seasonally, and it can be shorted on highs in the medium term [17] Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The overnight market declined. Brazil's November export volume is expected to increase, and there is an export order to China [19] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The supply and demand of domestic oil mills are loose, the basis is weak, and there may be a phased correction [19] - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The price was boosted by EPA biodiesel news. The supply of domestic soybean oil is strong, and rapeseed oil inventory is at a low level [20] - Palm oil: The Malaysian futures market continued to rise, but domestic inventory increased, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [20] - Corn: The price in Northeast China remained stable. Inventory is low, and there is a willingness to buy in the market. The futures may repair the basis [20] - Live pigs: The morning price was stable and strong. Supply is excessive, and the futures may continue to decline [21]

Economic Overview - The province's economy showed overall stability in the first ten months of the year, with industrial growth, declining fixed asset investment, expanding market sales, and rapid export growth [1] Industrial Performance - The added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 1.5% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 3.9% [1] - By sector, mining increased by 7.8%, manufacturing by 0.7%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 0.1% [2] - State-owned enterprises saw a 2.2% increase in added value, while foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises experienced a decline of 5.9% [2] - Among 40 industrial categories, 23 reported year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth rate of 57.5% [2] - Notable growth sectors included chemical fiber manufacturing (growth of 7.7 times), transportation equipment manufacturing (growth of 47.1%), and gas production and supply (growth of 21.6%) [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased overall, but manufacturing investment rose by 6.2%, with high-tech manufacturing investment increasing by 10.8% [2] - Investment in the primary industry grew by 5.1% year-on-year [2] Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 877.98 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [3] - Sales of essential goods remained stable, with food and oil retail sales increasing by 13.4% and daily necessities by 11.8% [3] - Upgraded consumer goods saw significant sales growth, including wearable smart devices (growth of 15.5 times) and energy-efficient home appliances (growth of 1.3 times) [3] Trade Performance - The province's total import and export value reached 338.37 billion yuan, marking a 9.6% increase [3] - Agricultural product exports totaled 27.67 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [3] - Machinery and electrical products exports were 170.59 billion yuan, growing by 8.5%, with notable increases in ship and automotive parts exports [3] Price Trends - Consumer prices remained stable overall, while industrial producer prices experienced a decline [4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Safras&Mercado lowered Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 178.76 million tons, a reduction of over 2 million tons from the September prediction, but still a 4% increase from the previous year [1] - The decrease in production forecast is mainly due to lower yields in the Matopiba soybean - growing region in north - central Brazil, affected by irregular rainfall and delayed sowing [1] - Despite the adjustment, 2026 is expected to have a record soybean harvest, and the planting area is projected to increase by 1.4% to 48.31 million hectares [1] - On November 19, 2025, private exporters reported selling 330,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Safras&Mercado adjusted Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast due to irregular rainfall and adverse weather conditions in some regions, with the yield in Tocantins dropping from 3,800 kg/ha to 3,660 kg/ha, and Paraná's production forecast adjusted to 21.7 million tons [1] - Private exporters reported selling 330,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 market year [1] Spot Prices - From November 13 - 19, 2025, the spot prices of soymeal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated [1]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Report Name: Agricultural Products Morning Report [18] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit/Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 2070 | 2150 | 2150 | 2320 | -36 | 20 | 145 | 2700 | 2800 | 148 | -12 | | 2025/11/14 | 2070 | 2160 | 2150 | 2330 | -25 | 20 | 156 | 2700 | 2800 | 150 | 9 | | 2025/11/17 | 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2340 | -2 | 10 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 166 | -10 | | 2025/11/18 | 2070 | 2180 | 2130 | 2360 | 12 | 30 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 188 | -10 | | 2025/11/19 | 2070 | 2170 | 2130 | 2360 | -5 | 40 | - | 2700 | 2800 | 225 | -1 | | Change | 0 | -10 | 0 | 0 | -17 | 10 | - | 0 | 0 | 37 | 9 | [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn spot prices have started an upward trend driven by tightened supply in production areas and downstream enterprises' restocking demand. Farmers' reluctance to sell has delayed the concentrated release of selling pressure. - Medium - long term: The supply - demand pattern of the corn market remains tight this year, and planting costs will strongly support prices. After the selling pressure eases, prices may start a new upward cycle [3] - Short - term: Starch prices fluctuate with raw material prices. After the new - season corn is on the market, deep - processing procurement and开机率 increase, but slow downstream replenishment and high inventory suppress starch prices. - Medium - long term: The key factor for starch price trends is downstream consumption rhythm. A significant price drop may stimulate downstream replenishment and drive prices up [4] Group 3: Sugar Market Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand | Brazil | Zhengzhou Futures | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | - | 5760 | 5630 | - | - | - | 8904 | | 2025/11/14 | - | 5760 | 5635 | - | - | - | 8805 | | 2025/11/17 | - | 5760 | 5630 | - | - | - | 8805 | | 2025/11/18 | - | 5760 | 5600 | - | - | - | 8794 | | 2025/11/19 | - | - | 5600 | - | - | - | 8611 | | Change | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | -183 | [5] Market Analysis - Short - term: Zhengzhou sugar is more affected by import quota management and syrup premix import control than the overseas market. Before new quota licenses are issued, domestic sugar production costs are a key support. - Medium - long term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, imported sugar may impact domestic sugar costs. Overall, the global and domestic sugar supply is loose, maintaining a short - selling strategy, but short - term low valuation limits the downward space [5] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Price Data | Date | 3128 | Imported M - grade US Cotton | CotlookA(F E) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn | Spot | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 14380 | 73.8 | 75.0 | 1272 | 5058 | 2.52 | 20970 | 438 | -129 | | 2025/11/14 | 14355 | - | 74.7 | 1281 | 5044 | 2.52 | 20970 | 493 | -102 | | 2025/11/17 | 14315 | - | 74.4 | 1286 | 5218 | 2.52 | 20960 | 451 | -70 | | 2025/11/18 | 14280 | - | - | - | 5314 | 2.52 | 20955 | 429 | -39 | | 2025/11/19 | 14320 | - | - | - | 4636 | 2.52 | 20950 | - | -86 | | Change | 40 | - | - | - | -678 | 0 | -5 | - | -47 | [7] Market Analysis - New cotton procurement is basically completed, with the total output estimate revised down. The positive outcome of the China - US meeting in Busan and tariff cuts are beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. The external environment has improved compared to April, so the valuation is unlikely to return to the April low, making long - term long positions suitable [7] Group 5: Egg Market Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White - feather Broiler | Yellow - feather Broiler | Pig | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.18 | 420 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 18.12 | | 2025/11/14 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.18 | 503 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 18.06 | | 2025/11/17 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 2.85 | 2.90 | 3.11 | 380 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.98 | | 2025/11/18 | 2.78 | 2.71 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 3.02 | 301 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.89 | | 2025/11/19 | 2.71 | 2.64 | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.96 | 281 | 3.52 | 3.60 | 17.92 | | Change | -0.07 | -0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.06 | -20.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | [13] Market Analysis - Supply side: Ordered chicken culling and a decrease in new - layer chickens have alleviated some supply pressure. - Demand side: Cooler weather allows for longer egg storage, and some traders are building rolling inventories. The interaction of supply and demand has slightly pushed up the price center in production areas. Currently, the culling process has not accelerated significantly, and there are no signs of over - culling in the short term. Future price trends depend on the culling rhythm, and faster culling may drive prices up [13] Group 6: Apple Market Price and Inventory Data | Date | Shandong 80 First - and Second - grade | Shaanxi 70 Common | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | 735.77 | 270.88 | 207.60 | -1504.00 | -1442.00 | -408.00 | | 2025/11/14 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -1570.00 | -1495.00 | -450.00 | | 2025/11/17 | 8000.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -1438.00 | -1318.00 | -355.00 | | 2025/11/18 | 8000.00 | - | - | - | - | -1433.00 | -1356.00 | -382.00 | | 2025/11/19 | 8000.00 | - | - | - | - | -1375.00 | -1296.00 | -347.00 | | Change | 0.00 | - | 58.00 | 60.00 | 35.00 | | | | [16][17] Market Analysis - National apple storage is basically completed. This year's national cold - storage estimated storage volume is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year, with an estimated volume of 700 - 780 million tons. Shaanxi's storage is 5 - 5.5%, 10 - 15% less than last year; Gansu's is 70%, 20 - 30% less; Shandong's is 50%, 10% less. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin, good - quality apples are scarce, and the price difference between good and bad apples is widening. The futures price has risen significantly recently and is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [17] Group 7: Pig Market Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/11/13 | 11.88 | 11.50 | 12.02 | 12.10 | 12.15 | 20 | | 2025/11/14 | 11.93 | 11.55 | 11.97 | 12.10 | 12.15 | 155 | | 2025/11/17 | 11.63 | 11.35 | 11.77 | 11.85 | 11.85 | -65 | | 2025/11/18 | 11.68 | 11.45 | 11.72 | 11.90 | 11.85 | 145 | | 2025/11/19 | 11.78 | 11.50 | 11.77 | 11.95 | 12.05 | 220 | | Change | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.20 | 75.00 | [17] Market Analysis - Over the weekend, the northern pig spot market was weak while the southern market was stable. Northern farmers were more willing to sell, and there was limited second - fattening support and downstream follow - up. Some southern farmers were holding out for higher prices, but price increases faced limited demand. The market is in a weak, volatile game in the short term. Mid - term supply pressure remains due to unchanged production capacity, and there is still pressure from fourth - quarter base supply and weight reduction. Near - term inventory accumulation shifts pressure to later periods. Attention should be paid to selling rhythm, diseases, policies, and capital sentiment in the high - position futures market [17]

Core Insights - Shaanxi's total import and export value reached 420.95 billion yuan in the first ten months, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.2%, ranking ninth in the country [1] - Exports amounted to 291.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, while imports were 129.33 billion yuan, growing by 5.7%, resulting in a trade surplus of 162.29 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - Processing trade and general trade showed stable growth, with processing trade at 195.45 billion yuan (up 9.6%) and general trade at 158.21 billion yuan (up 11.1%) [1] - Bonded logistics trade reached 50.49 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.3% [1] Group 2: Regional Trade Growth - Trade with ASEAN, Taiwan, EU, Hong Kong, and the US all experienced growth, with exports to ASEAN at 67.68 billion yuan (up 16.6%), Taiwan at 57.93 billion yuan (up 76.8%), and the EU at 52.17 billion yuan (up 43.9%) [1] - Trade with Belt and Road countries totaled 227.02 billion yuan, growing by 2.1%, accounting for 53.9% of the province's total trade [1] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Sector Performance - Foreign-invested enterprises saw a significant increase in trade, with a total of 242.67 billion yuan (up 19.5%), while private enterprises reported 149.12 billion yuan (up 3.1%) [2] - Key export categories included integrated circuits at 111.82 billion yuan (up 21.6%), automobiles at 42.42 billion yuan (up 21.4%), and automatic data processing equipment at 26.61 billion yuan (up 28.2%) [2] Group 4: Import Dynamics - Imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment surged over twofold, reaching 7.13 billion yuan (up 205.7%), while total imports of mechanical and electrical products were 89.01 billion yuan (up 9.3%) [2] - Integrated circuit imports totaled 55 billion yuan, indicating a strong demand in the technology sector [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, same as cotton [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆, same as 20 - rubber [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆, same as 20 - rubber [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of different soft commodities show different trends. Some are in a state of range - bound, some are expected to be weak, and some show signs of super - decline and rebound. The investment strategies vary from commodity to commodity, with some suggesting temporary waiting and some suggesting attention to arbitrage opportunities [2][3][6] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today, with the mainstream basis of cotton spot remaining stable. New cotton is concentrated on the market, and demand is average, putting pressure on prices. However, the spot price is generally stable, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain range - bound. As of November 13th, the national cumulative processed lint cotton was 3.907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.67 million tons. The pure cotton yarn market has weak transactions, and the spinning mills' new orders are few. The US Department of Agriculture's November report is bearish, with the US cotton production significantly increased. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, although the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the sugar - making ratio increased, maintaining high sugar production. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush, and due to good weather, the sugar production is expected to increase year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is running weakly. In October, China's sugar imports increased, and the market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. It is expected that the sugar price will remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot market has sporadic transactions of apples in the warehouse, with prices slightly rising. As of November 14th, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.3577 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The market's trading logic has shifted from cold - storage inventory to sales expectations. There is a high divergence between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the inventory - removal situation [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR all rose today. The global natural rubber supply is in a high - yield period, but the Yunnan region in China has entered a production - reduction period. The demand is slowly weakening, the natural rubber supply is decreasing, the synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and the spot inventory is rising. It is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - The pulp futures continued to fall today. As of November 13th, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.11 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The overseas broad - leaf pulp quotation is strong, but the downstream procurement intention is general. After the basis converges, the price has corrected. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price remains stable. In November, the New Zealand radiata pine quotation continued to rise, but the domestic spot price is weak, and the trader's import willingness is low. The port delivery volume is above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory is low. Low inventory supports the price, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Core Insights - China is a key trade partner for Argentina, with significant opportunities arising from this relationship [1] Trade Relations - China is Argentina's second-largest trading partner, importing key products such as soybeans and beef [1] - The emphasis on technological independence and food security in China presents opportunities for Argentina, a major global food producer [1] Technological Advancements - China's advancements in artificial intelligence are notable, with examples including efficient management of container cranes and automated production lines [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" in China highlights key areas of focus such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and sixth-generation mobile communications [1] Market Dynamics - Argentine visitors to China observe that Chinese products are of high quality and competitively priced, with excellent customer service [1] - The rapid delivery of customized products, such as tailored suits within 24 hours, reflects the efficiency of Chinese businesses [1]