证券研究报告 | 2025年11月18日 中国黄金国际（02099.HK） 优于大市 Q3 业绩表现亮眼，公司兼具高业绩弹性及高成长性 公司发布三季报：前三季度实现营收 9.25 亿美元，同比+99.83%；实现归母 净利润 3.41 亿美元，同比扭亏；其中，Q1/Q2/Q3 分别实现归母净利润 0.85/1.15/1.41 亿美元，Q3 环比+22.43%。公司 Q3 利润环比再次实现明显 提升，主要得益于金铜价格上涨以及甲玛矿销售折价系数提升。 核心产品产销量数据方面：公司前三季度实现黄金产量 4.02 吨，实现黄金 销量 4.21 吨。其中长山壕前三季度黄金产量约 2.12 吨，黄金销量约 2.34 吨；甲玛矿前三季度黄金产量约 1.90 吨，黄金销量约 1.87 吨。公司前三季 度实现铜产量 5.41 万吨，实现铜销量 5.33 万吨。公司 2025 年产量指引： 长山壕黄金产量指引约 2.4-2.6 吨；甲玛矿黄金产量指引约 2.15-2.3 吨， 铜产量指引约 6.3-6.7 万吨。全年的维度来看，公司金、铜产量超过指引的 可能性较高。 核心产品成本数据方面：长山壕前三季度黄金单位生产成本1639 ...

Core Viewpoint - Western Mining's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 50.96% but a recent decline of 4.37% over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 18, Western Mining's stock price was 22.75 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 54.213 billion CNY [1] - The stock has seen a trading volume of 1.25 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.23% [1] - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 50.96%, while it has decreased by 4.37% in the last five trading days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Western Mining reported a revenue of 48.442 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.90% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 2.945 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.80% [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of November 10, the number of shareholders for Western Mining was 116,000, an increase of 0.09% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder was 20,543, a decrease of 0.09% [2] - Since its A-share listing, Western Mining has distributed a total of 10.723 billion CNY in dividends, with 6.911 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the third-largest circulating shareholder, holding 111.2 million shares, a decrease of 5.1634 million shares from the previous period [3] - Southern CSI 500 ETF was the eighth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 24.32 million shares, down by 525,900 shares from the previous period [3] - Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. has exited the list of the top ten circulating shareholders [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the bull market is not over, with a significant shift in Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities still in its early stages [3][34][51] - The transition from "following" to "leading" in external circulation is a key theme, highlighting the need for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking [3][12][20] - The report outlines a two-phase bull market, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026 and "Bull Market 2.0" potentially starting in the second half of 2026 [4][6][7] Group 1: Competitive Landscape - Global competition is intensifying, and A-shares must adopt a competitive mindset to navigate this environment [3][20][22] - The shift in external circulation from "following" to "leading" reflects China's growing competitiveness and the need to enhance its global influence [3][12][19] - The report suggests that the A-share market can reflect the outcomes of competitive events, impacting pricing and risk preferences [3][22] Group 2: Asset Allocation Trends - The report introduces a "resident asset allocation migration degree indicator," indicating that the migration towards equities is still in its early phase, with significant potential for growth [34][36] - Historical data shows that the peak of equity allocation occurred in 2021, followed by a decline until 2024, with a rebound expected in 2025 [36][51] - The report highlights that the accumulation of profit-making effects in the A-share market is undergoing a qualitative change, which will improve conditions for capital inflow over time [3][34][51] Group 3: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is characterized by a focus on technology sectors, particularly AI, which may face short-term adjustments but is expected to continue its long-term trend [4][6][7] - "Bull Market 2.0" is anticipated to be a comprehensive bull market driven by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, emerging industry trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities [4][6][7] - The report predicts that by mid-2026, a clearer visibility of supply-demand dynamics will emerge, supporting the transition to "Bull Market 2.0" [4][6][7] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including technology, manufacturing, and emerging industries, which are expected to benefit from cyclical improvements and policy support [4][6][7] - The anticipated recovery in the manufacturing sector and the emergence of new demand sources are crucial for the overall market outlook [4][6][7] - The report suggests that the transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will involve a shift in investment focus from high-growth technology stocks to cyclical and value-oriented sectors [4][6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation New Materials has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 24.41%, indicating strong market interest and potential growth opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 17, Innovation New Materials' stock price increased by 2.17%, reaching 4.71 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.60 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 17.691 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a net inflow of 28.8184 million CNY from major funds, with significant buying activity from large orders [1]. - The stock has shown a 2.39% increase over the last five trading days, a 13.77% increase over the last 20 days, and a 10.05% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - Innovation New Materials, established on June 7, 1996, and listed on November 29, 2001, specializes in the research, development, and production of aluminum alloys and related products [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes 61.01% from bars, 23.66% from aluminum rods and cables, 7.18% from sheets and foils, 5.82% from profiles, and 2.16% from other sources [2]. - As of October 31, the number of shareholders decreased by 3.68% to 71,200, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 3.82% to 20,622 shares [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Innovation New Materials reported a revenue of 58.716 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 709 million CNY, down 10.28% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.796 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 831 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include the Southern CSI 500 ETF, which is a new shareholder holding 22.7312 million shares [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations this week, with the consumer and banking sectors showing slight strength, while the lithium battery and industrial metals sectors performed well [6] - The technology sector showed a mixed adjustment, with humanoid robots and AI core listed companies experiencing significant cumulative gains this year, contributing to recent adjustments in these sectors [7] Sector Analysis - The humanoid robot sector faced downward pressure due to uncertainties regarding large-scale production timelines, leading to investor concerns about the industry's future [7] - The AI sector saw a general weakening in both application and hardware aspects, with fears of an AI industry bubble arising from the contrasting performance of upstream and downstream companies in the US market [7] - Despite the overall weakness, some leading AI companies maintained strong stock performance due to continuous improvements in large model capabilities and optimistic industry prospects [7] Battery Sector Insights - The battery sector saw a strong increase this week, with lithium mines, lithium batteries, and solid-state battery concepts leading in gains [8] - The surge in overseas energy storage demand, driven by expectations of increased electricity consumption from data centers, contributed to the sector's strength [8] - Recent price increases in lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte additives were noted, with prices doubling since mid-October, attributed to supply-demand mismatches [8] Economic Indicators - The October CPI data turned positive, boosting market confidence, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 4034.08 points, supported by stable performance in consumer stocks, banks, and non-ferrous metals [9] - However, the market adjusted significantly on Friday due to weakness in technology stocks, indicating that the A-share market is expected to maintain overall fluctuations with structural hotspots in the future [9]

铝：国内新能源汽车销量占比超50%叠加海外能源价格续涨，铝价震荡走强。截至11月 14日，本周LME铝报收2,859美元/吨，周环比上涨1.41%；沪铝报收21,840元/吨，周环比上 涨0.99%。供应端，本周中国电解铝行业无增减产行为，理论开工产能维持4413.50万吨；需 求端，本周铝板带箔企业产能利用率环比上升0.03pct，铝棒产能利用率环比上升0.5pct，本 周电解铝的理论需求有所上升，本周电解铝社会库存环升0.45%至62.99万吨。本周纽约天然 气期指续涨13.83%推动海外铝价上行，国内受到10月份新能源汽车月度新车销量首次超过 了汽车新车总销量的50%的消息主动跟涨，当下沪铝持续增仓上行，短期铝价预计维持震荡 偏强走势，后续进一步观察海外能源价格扰动即需求落地情况。 黄金：美国政府重启缓解流动性担忧，降息预期左右贵金属短期价格走向。截至11月14 日，COMEX黄金收盘价为4084.40美元/盎司，周环比上涨1.91%，SHFE黄金收盘价为953.20 元/克，周环比上涨3.47%。美国时间11月12日，美国总统特朗普签署了国会两院通过的一项 联邦政府临时拨款法案，结束了43天的史上最长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.07% from November 10 to November 14, outperforming the overall market index [14]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to maintain a bullish outlook in the medium term despite short-term fluctuations due to changing interest rate expectations [4][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the non-ferrous metals sector ranked 16th among 31 sectors, outperforming the index by 1.25 percentage points [14]. - Precious metals increased by 2.77%, energy metals by 2.47%, and industrial metals by 1.56%, while small metals and new materials declined by 1.42% and 3.22%, respectively [14]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices rose with LME copper at $10,846 per ton (up 1.41%) and SHFE copper at ¥86,900 per ton (up 1.12%). Supply remains weak, with Codelco's September production down 7.2% year-on-year [2][31]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum reached $2,859 per ton (up 1.41%), driven by increased demand from the electric vehicle sector, where sales exceeded 50% of total new car sales in October [3][35]. - **Zinc**: Prices fell with LME zinc at $3,015 per ton (down 1.70%) and SHFE zinc at ¥22,470 per ton (down 1.30%). Zinc inventories increased, indicating a bearish trend [41]. - **Tin**: LME tin rose to $36,860 per ton (up 2.90%) due to reduced exports from Indonesia, which halved in October [45]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,084.40 per ounce (up 1.91%), while SHFE gold was at ¥953.20 per gram (up 3.47%). The resumption of U.S. government operations alleviated liquidity concerns, boosting prices [4][49]. - The Federal Reserve's hawkish comments and the lack of supporting economic data have led to a decrease in December rate cut expectations from 95% to around 50%, causing some price corrections in precious metals [50]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories decreased, with LME at 135,700 tons (down 0.13%) and SHFE at 109,400 tons (down 4.89%) [29][34]. - Aluminum inventories increased slightly, with LME at 552,400 tons (up 0.57%) and SHFE at 114,900 tons (up 1.38%) [35].

A股开盘，三大指数集体低开，沪指低开0.05%。深证成指低开0.12%，创业板指低开0.46%。盘面上， 军工装备、养殖业板块涨幅居前，黄金、工业金属、油气板块低开。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the current "Bull Market 1.0" is at a high point, with insufficient long-term cost-effectiveness in the technology sector. The technology structural bull market of 2025 is part of this phase, and a potential peak may occur in the spring of 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Phases - The "Bull Market 1.0" is characterized by high resistance to further upward movement, with cyclical trends still in a "running ahead" phase. The conditions for the initiation of "Bull Market 2.0" are not yet complete [2][4]. - The current A-share AI industry chain is compared to previous market phases, indicating a state of "ongoing industry trend with small fluctuations and long-term low cost-effectiveness." Future movements are expected to be divided into "high-level oscillation" and "adjustment" phases [2][3]. Group 2: High-Level Oscillation Phase - In the high-level oscillation phase, it becomes increasingly difficult to earn valuation gains, and new industry catalysts or sustained high growth in performance are less likely to lead to upward breakthroughs. This phase typically lasts at a quarterly level [3][4]. - The adjustment phase is usually triggered by intermediate disturbances in industry trends, which do not signify the end of the structural bull market but may lead to reasonable adjustments [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Short-term opportunities in technology growth are expected to arise from small rebounds, focusing on sectors with new catalysts and significant industry space, particularly in energy storage and storage solutions [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on Alpha logic in both cyclical and technology investments, with a particular interest in sectors like basic chemicals, industrial metals, innovative pharmaceuticals, and national defense [5]. Group 4: 2026 Outlook - The spring of 2026 is anticipated to be a potential peak, but it is unlikely to represent the highest point of the entire bull market. The market is expected to face three challenges: long-term low cost-effectiveness in technology, intermediate disturbances in industry trends, and the conditions for "Bull Market 2.0" not being mature yet [4][5]. - The report suggests that the A-share market will continue to see mid-term gains from cyclical improvements, asset allocation shifts towards equities, and China's increasing global influence [5].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the global competition has intensified, and A-shares should embrace a competitive mindset, reflecting the reality of pricing competition [2][4] - The migration of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, which could drive a bull market, with the macroeconomic framework indicating that the accumulation of A-share profitability is undergoing a qualitative change [3][5] - The report outlines a "two-phase bull market" theory, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [6][10] Group 2 - The report predicts that 2026 will see a significant rebound in profitability, with the first double-digit growth in net profit for A-shares in five years, forecasting a 7% growth in 2025 and 14% in 2026 [13] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will likely favor high-dividend defensive stocks, while the latter phase will be characterized by cyclical stocks leading the market [10][13] - Three structural clues for 2026 include recovery trades in basic chemicals and industrial metals, opportunities in the AI industry chain, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [14]