Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant target price increases for several companies from January 19 to January 25, with notable mentions including Xingyu Co., Zijin Mining, and Hunan YN, which saw target price increases of 79.21%, 66.13%, and 65.34% respectively [1][2][3] Group 2 - The companies with the highest target price increases are as follows: Xingyu Co. (target price: 222.42 yuan, increase: 79.21%), Zijin Mining (target price: 62.40 yuan, increase: 66.13%), and Hunan YN (target price: 112.98 yuan, increase: 65.34%) [3] - A total of 167 listed companies received broker recommendations during this period, with Ningbo Bank and China Duty Free each receiving 11 recommendations, and Industrial Bank receiving 9 [4][5] - The companies with the most broker recommendations include Ningbo Bank (closing price: 28.98 yuan, recommendations: 11), China Duty Free (closing price: 93.32 yuan, recommendations: 11), and Industrial Bank (closing price: 19.12 yuan, recommendations: 9) [5] - Six companies had their ratings upgraded during this period, including Guowang Co. (from "Hold" to "Buy"), Baiwei Storage (from "Hold" to "Buy"), and Jianghuai Automobile (from "Hold" to "Buy") [6] - One company, Junda Co., had its rating downgraded from "Strong Buy" to "Hold" [7] - A total of 46 first-time coverage ratings were issued, with Kevin Education receiving an "Increase" rating from Guotai Junan Securities, and Longxin General receiving a "Buy" rating from Zhongtai Securities [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant target price increases for certain companies, with Star Universe Co., Zijin Mining, and Hunan YN Energy leading the list with target price increases of 79.21%, 66.13%, and 65.34% respectively, across the automotive parts, industrial metals, and battery industries [1][3]. Group 2 - From January 19 to January 25, a total of 90 target price adjustments were made by brokerages, with Star Universe Co. receiving a target price of 222.42 yuan, Zijin Mining at 62.40 yuan, and Hunan YN Energy at 112.98 yuan [1][3]. - The number of companies recommended by brokerages during the same period reached 167, with Ningbo Bank and China Duty Free receiving the highest number of recommendations at 11 each, followed by Industrial Bank with 9 recommendations [4][5]. - Six companies had their ratings upgraded, including Guowang Co. from "Hold" to "Buy" by Northeast Securities, and Jianghuai Automobile from "Hold" to "Buy" by Guohai Securities [6][7]. - One company, Junda Co., had its rating downgraded from "Strong Buy" to "Hold" by China Merchants Securities [7]. - A total of 46 first-time coverage ratings were issued, with Kevin Education receiving an "Increase" rating from Guotai Junan Securities and Longxin General receiving a "Buy" rating from Zhongtai Securities [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a bullish trend in precious metals, particularly silver, which has recently surpassed $100 per ounce, suggesting a continuation of the metal bull market [2]. - The report notes that macroeconomic factors, including geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, are influencing metal prices, with a general upward trend observed across various metals [3][4][5][9]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, breaking the $100 mark, while gold is approaching $5000 per ounce, driven by increased market risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [2]. - Key companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories have increased, with global copper stocks rising by 69,000 tons, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance [3]. - The report mentions ongoing labor strikes affecting copper production in Chile, which could exacerbate market tensions [3]. - Suggested companies for investment include Zijin Mining and Western Mining [3]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to macroeconomic policies and supply chain issues, with production capacity remaining stable [4]. - Companies to consider include China Hongqiao and Nanshan Aluminum [4]. Nickel - Nickel prices have risen by 4.7% to 148,010 yuan per ton, influenced by supply disruptions in Indonesia and macroeconomic liquidity [5]. - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium [5][8]. Tin - Tin prices are supported by macroeconomic factors and supply chain bottlenecks, with demand from the electronics sector showing signs of recovery [8]. - Key companies include Hunan Tin and Yunnan Tin [8]. Lithium - Lithium prices continue to rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 177,000 yuan per ton, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling and supply disruptions [9]. - Companies to watch include Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [9]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased by 3.7% to 437,000 yuan per ton, with supply disruptions easing but demand from downstream sectors weakening [10]. - Suggested companies include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records in 2026 [12] - Zinc is viewed as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the potential for precious metals to lead industrial metals in price increases, driven by a breakdown in the gold-silver ratio and a late-stage long-term debt cycle [7][12] - Specific investment opportunities include companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) and others in the precious metals sector [7] Zinc Sector - The report identifies zinc as a critical material in the context of re-industrialization, with supply constraints and increasing demand expected to drive prices higher [13] Aluminum Sector - The report highlights the competitive advantages of China's electrolytic aluminum industry, which is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and supply chain security [13] Steel Sector - The steel industry is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low period before the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production and consumption metrics indicate a slight increase in iron output but a decrease in rebar demand, reflecting a mixed outlook for the sector [19][26] New Energy Metals - The report notes significant increases in lithium and cobalt prices, with production metrics showing substantial year-on-year growth in lithium carbonate output [37][46] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures indicating continued growth in the sector [41] Industrial Metals - The report discusses the overall upward trend in industrial metal prices, driven by political policy risks and supply reduction expectations [56] - Specific metrics indicate rising copper production and declining refining fees, suggesting a tightening supply environment [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Insights - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records [12] - Zinc is identified as an overlooked material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of precious metals in preserving wealth amid a declining trust in fiat currencies, recommending active investment in this sector [12] Zinc Sector - The report suggests that zinc, as a fundamental material for de-globalization, will see increased demand driven by infrastructure needs in emerging markets, despite current market skepticism [13] Aluminum Sector - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China is expected to benefit from enhanced supply chain security and competitive advantages, with a positive outlook for profitability and valuation [13] Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production has seen a slight increase, but demand for rebar is weakening, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [19] New Energy Metals - Lithium and carbonate prices have shown significant increases, with production levels rising sharply, indicating strong demand in the new energy vehicle sector [37][41] - The report notes a substantial increase in the production of lithium carbonate and hydroxide, reflecting the growing demand for electric vehicles [37] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that political risks and supply constraints are contributing to an overall increase in industrial metal prices, with copper production expected to rise despite declining refining fees [56][57]

Group 1: Market Overview - The global metal market has entered a new phase of price increases, with gold and silver achieving their largest weekly gains since 2020, maintaining a cumulative rise since the beginning of 2026 [1] - Silver futures and spot prices have historically surpassed the $100 mark for the first time [1] - Gold has reached a new intraday high for the fifth consecutive trading day, approaching the $5000 mark, while copper has rebounded to over $13,000 [6][19] Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - The surge in metal prices is driven by multiple factors, including a weakening dollar, significant capital outflows from currencies and sovereign bonds, and geopolitical tensions, particularly comments from former President Trump regarding military movements towards Iran [6][10] - The ongoing geopolitical instability and criticism of the Federal Reserve have heightened risk aversion among investors, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [10][17] Group 3: Institutional Outlook - Major financial institutions are bullish on precious metals, with JPMorgan forecasting gold prices to reach $5000 by Q4 2026 and Citigroup raising its short-term silver price target to $100 [7][18] - UBS anticipates that silver still has about 25% upside potential, although it warns of potential volatility throughout the year [7][11] Group 4: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has outperformed gold in 2025, with prices rising nearly 150% compared to gold's over 60% increase, reflecting a shift in investor interest [8][10] - Analysts suggest that the $100 mark for silver is a psychological barrier, with strong industrial demand, particularly from the solar sector, contributing to price increases [10][12] Group 5: Copper and Other Industrial Metals - Copper prices have rebounded due to supply disruptions and a weaker dollar, with LME copper trading above $13,000 per ton [19][22] - The recent price increases in copper are attributed to labor strikes affecting production and easing trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe [22][23]

相关研究 证券分析师 2026 年 01 月 25 日 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 地缘紧张避险升温，金属价格强势 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260119-20260123 本期投资提示： 有色金属 究 / 行 业 点 评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行业点评 1．一周行情回顾 据 iFind，总体看，环比上周，上证指数上涨 0.84%，深证成指上涨 1.11%，沪深 300 下跌 0.62%，有色金属（申万）指数上涨 6.03%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.65 个百分点； 20 ...

风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 24 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20260124 周报：贵金属价格创历史新高，基本面 推动锂价上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：美债遭遇抛售,贵金属加速上涨。本周贵金属再度加速上涨， 突破历史新高，其中COMEX黄金接近5000美元/盎司，COMEX白银突破100 美元/盎司大关。1月20日，全球债市遭遇集体抛售，美债和日债领跌，日 债收益率历史性突破4%关口，为三十余年首次。欧洲多国宣布抛售美债， 10年期美国国债收益率攀升引发市场避险情绪并导致对于贵金属的配置需 求激增。丹麦表示将在月底前清仓所持全部1亿美国国债，引发多国连锁反 应。短期而言，美联储降息预期摇摆，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而 言，全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄 金交易的核心，长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄 金，A股关注紫金、中金、赤峰及西金等；H股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集 海等。银铂钯均为黄金的贝塔，个 ...

23日周五，全球金属市场掀起新一轮上涨高潮，以期货即月合约收盘价计，金银齐创2020年来最大单周 涨幅，进入2026年以来保持每周累涨。 纽约期银和伦敦现货白银均史上首次突破100美元关口，黄金连续第五个交易日盘中创历史新高，进一 步逼近5000美元大关，伦铜重上1.3万美元，接近本月稍早创下的盘中最高纪录。其他贵金属和工业金 属涨势凌厉。美股盘中，纽约钯金期货曾涨约7%，铂金期货曾涨超7%，伦镍和伦锡周五收盘分别涨超 4%和9.5%。 这轮涨势受到多重因素推动。美元走弱、投资者资金大规模流出货币和主权债券，加之特朗普抨击美联 储威胁央行独立性、美欧关系恶化以及地缘政治局势动荡，均加剧了避险情绪，共同推动金属持续上 涨。 评论提及，特朗普关于美国"舰队"正前往伊朗的言论促使投资者涌入白银、黄金和铜等基本金属。这里 所说的舰队是指，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普22日周四在总统专机"空军一号"上对媒体表示，美国 正调集重兵前往伊朗，许多舰艇正在向伊朗行进。 机构普遍看涨贵金属后市。华尔街见闻上周提到，摩根大通预计，金价到2026年第四季度将达到5000美 元，长期甚至看向6000美元;花旗在牛市情景下将未来0-3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global metal market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold and silver reaching their highest weekly gains since 2020, driven by various geopolitical and economic factors [2][7]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold has reached a historical high, nearing $5000 per ounce, while silver has surpassed $100 for the first time in history [3][7]. - Silver futures have seen a cumulative increase of over 14% this week, marking the largest weekly gain since July 2020, and have risen over 40% year-to-date [9]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $5000 by Q4 2026, with some forecasts even suggesting a long-term target of $6000 [18]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in metal prices is attributed to a weaker dollar, significant capital outflows from currencies and sovereign bonds, and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S.-Iran relations [7][21]. - Trump's comments about U.S. military movements towards Iran have intensified safe-haven demand for metals like gold and silver [7][11]. Group 3: Emerging Market Trends - There is a notable acceleration in the de-dollarization trend globally, with emerging market assets attracting record inflows, particularly into funds like the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF [8]. - The demand for silver is bolstered by strong industrial needs, especially from the solar energy sector, and increased retail buying in China [11][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts from major financial institutions like Citigroup and UBS have raised their short-term price targets for silver to $100 and $70 respectively, reflecting a bullish sentiment despite potential volatility [12][13]. - UBS anticipates that silver prices could still have about 25% upside potential from current levels, although a correction may occur later in the year [13]. Group 5: Base Metals Performance - Copper prices have rebounded, driven by a weaker dollar and supply disruptions, with LME copper trading above $13,000 per ton [19][21]. - Nickel and tin have also seen significant price increases, with nickel reaching a new high since June 2024 [19]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply chain for copper is under pressure due to labor strikes in Chile, which have halted operations at key mines [21]. - The influx of copper into Asian warehouses is partly driven by Chinese smelters capitalizing on favorable arbitrage opportunities, although domestic demand may be affected by a slowing real estate sector [22].