有色金属期货
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大成有色ETF(159980.SZ)最新规模超20亿元,创成立以来新高!“TACO”交易引发市场关注,机构看好铜价中长期前景
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 02:04
Core Insights - The recent performance of the non-ferrous ETF (159980) shows significant investor interest, with a net subscription of 8 million shares and a total scale reaching 2.017 billion yuan, marking a record high since its inception [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 20 days, accumulating a total of 527 million yuan [1] - The five-year net value of the ETF has increased by 70.97%, ranking first among other commodity funds [1] Market Analysis - The market is currently showing resilience against trade tensions, with a lower likelihood of significant impacts compared to earlier in the year, particularly regarding the "TACO" trade [7] - Economic data from the U.S. indicates a cooling trend, raising concerns about the dollar's credibility and enhancing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which could benefit non-ferrous metal prices [7] - The ongoing issues at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia are contributing to a global copper supply shortage, with projected supply gaps of 53,000 tons and 87,000 tons for 2025 and 2026, respectively [7] ETF Composition - The Dachen Non-Ferrous ETF (159980.SZ) is primarily invested in futures of non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, tin, zinc, and nickel traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [8]
工业硅&多晶硅日报-20251010
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 05:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, industrial silicon and polysilicon showed a weak and volatile trend. For industrial silicon, the policy's impact on the market was limited, and the post - holiday inventory reduction pressure on silicon factories was significant. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach or conduct light - position short - term operations, and pay attention to the actual implementation of production - cut policies in the southwest region. For polysilicon, the market has fully priced in the policy expectations, and investors are advised to be vigilant against post - holiday correction risks, manage positions, and consider shorting at high prices [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research View - After the holiday on October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of industrial silicon closed at 8,640 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.29% and an increase in open interest by 2,165 lots to 177,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot was 9,580 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 235 yuan/ton. The main contract 2511 of polysilicon closed at 50,765 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.09% and a decrease in open interest by 2,372 lots to 84,987 lots. The price of N - type recycled polysilicon and the lowest deliverable grade both rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 1,700 yuan/ton [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract remained unchanged at 8,640 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 8,665 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and regions remained stable, except that the price of oxygen - containing 553 silicon in Tianjin Port decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon in Xinjiang decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 5 yuan to 235 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 209 to 50,774, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 12,035 tons to 250,330 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 595 yuan/ton to 50,765 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 580 yuan/ton to 50,800 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 580 yuan to 1,700 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 to 8,140, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 158,000 tons to 236,400 tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The spot prices of DMC in the East China market and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [4]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and solar modules [13][17][19]. Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, and weekly industry inventory), DMC, and polysilicon [23]. Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [29][31][37]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in non - ferrous metals research [39][40].
中辉有色观点-20251009
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 03:26
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ [1] - Silver: ★★ [1] - Copper: ★★ [1] - Zinc: ★ [1] - Lead: ★ [1] - Tin: ★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★ [1] - Nickel: ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring in the long term, but short - term technical overbought risks should be guarded against [1][3][4] - Copper is a strategic resource in Sino - US competition and a substitute for precious metals, and is long - term bullish under the background of tight copper concentrate supply and booming green copper demand [1][9] - Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, short - term upside is limited, and it is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term [1][12] - Aluminum prices are expected to be strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [1][16] - Nickel and stainless steel are recommended to be on the sidelines for now, waiting for downstream consumption improvement [1][20] - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and long positions should take profits in a timely manner [1][24] Summary by Variety Gold - **Market Performance**: During the National Day holiday, the overseas gold market was strong, with spot gold breaking through $4,000 per ounce, and COMEX gold rising 4.45%. Domestic gold may challenge the 910 position [2][4] - **Driving Factors**: US government shutdown, weak economic data, French political turmoil, Japanese leadership change, and central bank gold - buying behavior contribute to the rise [3] - **Strategy**: Long - term positions should be held, and short - term positions can be deployed on dips [4] Silver - **Market Performance**: It follows the sharp fluctuations of gold and copper markets, with short - term high sentiment. Domestic silver may challenge the 11,300 position [1][4] - **Driving Factors**: Global policy stimulus, strong demand, and obvious supply - demand gap support long - term bullishness [1] - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions can be tried, and long - term positions should be held [1] Copper - **Market Performance**: During the National Day holiday, LME copper hit a new high of $10,802.5 per ton, and SHFE copper may open higher [6][8] - **Driving Factors**: US government shutdown, weak employment data, Fed rate - cut expectations, weak US dollar, geopolitical risks, and supply disruptions in Indonesian mines [8] - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions, and new long positions can be entered after a pull - back. Long - term bullishness is maintained [9] Zinc - **Market Performance**: LME zinc hit a new high during the holiday but then declined. SHFE zinc may rise in the short term but with limited upside [10][11][12] - **Driving Factors**: Low LME zinc inventory, supply - demand imbalance with increasing supply and decreasing demand in the medium - to - long term [11][12] - **Strategy**: Short - term sell - hedging can be arranged at high levels, and it is a short - side allocation in the medium - to - long term [12] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: LME aluminum rose during the holiday, and SHFE aluminum is expected to follow suit [13][14] - **Driving Factors**: Expected decrease in overseas bauxite arrivals, and support from terminal consumption [15] - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions can be taken at low levels, paying attention to downstream processing enterprise operations [16] Nickel - **Market Performance**: LME nickel rose slightly during the holiday, and SHFE nickel may continue to rebound [17][18] - **Driving Factors**: Overseas political situation has limited impact on nickel supply, and there is a supply - demand divergence within the domestic nickel industry chain [19] - **Strategy**: Wait and see for now, paying attention to downstream consumption improvement [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with pre - holiday fluctuations converging [22] - **Driving Factors**: Increasing production, stable downstream demand, and expected inventory reduction [23] - **Strategy**: Take profits on long positions in the range of 72,800 - 74,500 [24]
铜价维持强势运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 09:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price increased with higher trading volume last night, and the main contract price broke through the high point in March this year, followed by intraday volatile adjustment. Since Freeport announced a copper mine production cut on September 24th, the copper price has shown a significant increase with higher trading volume, attracting rapid attention from capital and showing strong upward momentum. As China is about to enter the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, attention should be paid to overseas market volatility risks [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated downward today, with a continuous decline in open interest. Last week, affected by the sharp rise in copper prices, the aluminum price stabilized and rebounded, but the overall rebound was weak. Before the domestic holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction in electrolytic aluminum, providing support for the aluminum price. With a loose macro - environment and a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance during the peak industrial season, there was an obvious outflow of funds before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the industrial demand situation after the holiday [5]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated downward today, with a slight decline in open interest. The sector - wide effect of the non - ferrous metals sector driven by copper prices has faded, and the nickel price has dropped back to the level at the beginning of last week. At the industrial level, the long - term oversupply of nickel elements continues to suppress the nickel price. In the short term, the slowdown in the accumulation of nickel ore at ports and the reduction of nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange provide support for the nickel price. Continuous attention should be paid to the technical support at the 121,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued improvement in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On September 30th, SMM reported that as the National Day holiday approached, the downstream procurement sentiment of refined copper rod enterprises was weak. The high copper price and the short price - fixing period for downstream customers near the contract roll - over jointly suppressed new orders [8]. - **Nickel**: On September 30th, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 121,000 - 123,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a rise of 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 150 - 100 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory [9][11][12][14][17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25][27][29][31]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [33][37][40][42].
有色套利早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead as of September 30, 2025, which can help investors analyze potential arbitrage opportunities [1][4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 30, 2025, the domestic spot price was 82220, the LME price was 10235, and the ratio was 8.06; the three - month domestic price was 82360, the LME price was 10264, and the ratio was 8.01. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.10, with a loss of 898.28, and the profit for spot export was 299.94 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21620, the LME price was 2953, and the ratio was 7.32; the three - month domestic price was 21830, the LME price was 2909, and the ratio was 5.82. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.54, with a loss of 3590.26 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20690, the LME price was 2660, and the ratio was 7.77; the three - month domestic price was 20725, the LME price was 2666, and the ratio was 7.76. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.39, with a loss of 1632.20 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119800, the LME price was 15057, and the ratio was 7.96. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.18, with a loss of 1708.54 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16750, the LME price was 1948, and the ratio was 8.62; the three - month domestic price was 16885, the LME price was 1993, and the ratio was 10.89. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.83, with a loss of 400.78 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On September 30, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were - 100, - 110, - 150, and - 130 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 514, 927, 1348, and 1769 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 150, - 120, - 75, and - 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 450, and 569 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 25, - 30, - 20, and - 25 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 446, and 562 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 215, - 185, - 165, and - 150 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 210, 317, 423, and 529 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 0, 170, 340, and 620 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 1010, and the theoretical spread was 5645 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 295 and 195 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 346 and 787 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 330 and 180 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 159 and 285 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 320 and 105 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 179 and 291 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On September 30, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.77, 3.97, 4.88, 0.95, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively; in the London (three - continuous) market, they were 3.54, 3.89, 5.22, 0.91, 1.34, and 0.68 respectively [5]
20250924申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250925
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 03:38
Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No information provided on industry investment ratings Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Although concentrate supply is tight and smelting profits are under pressure, smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Multiple factors are intertwined, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, and smelting profits have turned positive. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - Night - time copper prices rose 0.06%. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output has high growth. The power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic installations increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term range - bound fluctuations [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose 0.41%. Zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market is weak. The price may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 20,685 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,646 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 0.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 513,900 tons with no daily change [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 120,730 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 990 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,340 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 173.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 228,900 tons with an increase of 456 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 17,040 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,999 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 42.13 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 221,675 tons with an increase of 1,375 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price was 269,880 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,000 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 34,270 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 98.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,580 tons with an increase of 75 tons [2]
铜价上行驱动板块配置价值,大成有色ETF(159980.SZ)高开高走涨近2%,最新规模、份额均创新高
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-25 02:04
Group 1 - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF (159980.SZ) has seen a significant increase of 1.87% as of September 25, 2025, with a trading volume of 1.45 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 8.44% [1] - Over the past 14 days, the Dachen Nonferrous ETF has experienced continuous net inflows totaling 291 million yuan, bringing its total size to 1.682 billion yuan and shares to 981 million, both reaching record highs since inception [1] - LME copper prices have surged to a 15-month high, with a single-day increase of 3.2%, marking the largest rise in nearly five months [1] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has suspended production due to a landslide, leading Freeport to lower its 2026 production guidance by 35%, with potential resumption delayed until 2027, exacerbating global copper supply tensions [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to provide long-term support for copper prices, especially in a constrained supply environment, as it may stimulate inflation expectations [2] - The Dachen Nonferrous ETF is primarily invested in futures of nonferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, tin, zinc, and nickel traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2]
有色震荡运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 10:21
Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "2025 Year 9 Month 24 Day Non - Ferrous Metals Daily Report" [3] - Report industry: Non - ferrous metals [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices fluctuated around the 80,000 - yuan mark with a narrowing amplitude and little change in open interest. Domestically, the macro - environment is favorable, but copper prices are weak. Downstream pre - holiday restocking provides support. Technically, focus on the long - short game at the 80,000 - yuan mark [5] - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated upwards with a slight decline in open interest. The domestic macro - environment is good, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. As prices fell, downstream restocking increased, and the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, focus on the support of the 60 - day moving average [6] - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel maintained a fluctuating trend with little change in open interest. The domestic macro - environment is favorable, but the industry has an oversupply situation due to rising nickel ore and refined nickel inventories. It is expected to fluctuate. Technically, focus on the support at the 120,000 - yuan mark [7] Group 4: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: The SMM Shanghai copper spot price stabilized at 80,000 yuan/ton. Downstream备货 sentiment was weak, and this year's National Day restocking was weaker than last year. It is expected that tomorrow's spot trading will continue around par [9] - **Nickel**: On September 24, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 121,100 - 123,800 yuan/ton, with an average of 122,450 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel spot premium was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10] Group 5: Related Charts Copper - **Copper basis**: Chart shows the relationship between basis and spot price [11] - **Electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory**: Chart includes social inventory and bonded area inventory [13] - **LME copper cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart shows the relationship between LME copper inventory and cancelled warrant ratio [14] - **Overseas copper exchange inventory**: Chart shows the inventory of overseas copper exchanges [19] - **SHFE warrant inventory**: Chart shows the SHFE warrant inventory [20] Aluminum - **Aluminum basis**: Chart shows the relationship between aluminum basis and futures price [23] - **Electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory**: Chart shows the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum [25] - **Alumina inventory**: Chart shows the alumina inventory [27] - **Aluminum monthly spread**: Chart shows the aluminum monthly spread [29] - **Electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory**: Chart shows the overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX) [31] - **Aluminum rod inventory**: Chart shows the aluminum rod inventory [33] Nickel - **Nickel basis**: Chart shows the relationship between nickel basis and spot price [35] - **LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart shows the relationship between LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio [38] - **LME nickel trend**: Chart shows the LME nickel trend [39] - **SHFE inventory**: Chart shows the SHFE nickel inventory [42] - **Nickel ore port inventory**: Chart shows the nickel ore port inventory [44]
有色震荡下行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:32
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated downward today, with the main contract price breaking below the 80,000 mark and the trading volume slightly decreasing. On the macro - level, the domestic market was weak, with both commodities and stock indices showing a downward trend. On the industrial level, the sharp decline in copper price and pre - holiday restocking demand are expected to increase industrial restocking willingness, which will support the copper price. However, the spot premium is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and there is no sign of inventory depletion. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated weakly today, and the trading volume continued to decline. The domestic market was weak on the macro - level, with commodities and stock indices trending down. On the industrial level, the aluminum price remained high in September, leading to weak restocking willingness among downstream enterprises. As the futures price declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel price fluctuated downward today, and the trading volume increased slightly. The domestic market was weak on the macro - level, with commodities and stock indices showing a downward trend. On the industrial level, the nickel price oscillated during the day, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average, with downstream enterprises mainly purchasing as needed. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: In August 2025, China's total export volume of wire and cable was 261,000 tons, including 123,400 tons of copper wire and cable. In September, due to the resilient overseas demand for copper wire and cable, the export volume is expected to remain at a high level. The export performance to major destinations was divergent, with a 49.7% month - on - month decline in exports to the Philippines, a 57.7% month - on - month increase to Indonesia due to major projects, and a 26.11% month - on - month decline to the US due to tariff hikes [9]. - **Aluminum**: In August 2025, China's aluminum foil export volume was 107,000 tons, a 2% month - on - month and 24% year - on - year decline, with the year - on - year decline exceeding 20% for three consecutive months. The export volume of aluminum sheets and strips was 265,000 tons, a 2% month - on - month increase and a 10% year - on - year decrease [10]. - **Nickel**: On September 23, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 123,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,950 yuan/ton, a 750 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report presents charts of aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report shows charts of nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][40].
有色金属板块大面积飘绿 多晶硅主力跌近3%
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-23 04:59
Core Insights - The domestic non-ferrous metal market experienced significant declines on September 23, with major drops in polysilicon and industrial silicon prices [1][2] Price Movements - Industrial silicon futures fell by 1.75%, settling at 8,975.00 CNY/ton - Polysilicon futures decreased by 2.76%, closing at 50,250.00 CNY/ton - Aluminum oxide futures dropped by 1.12%, ending at 2,901.00 CNY/ton - Lead futures declined by 0.44%, finishing at 17,085.00 CNY/ton [1] Futures Market Data - The opening and closing prices for various contracts on September 23 were as follows: - Aluminum oxide: Opened at 2,926.00 CNY, closed at 2,934.00 CNY - Lithium carbonate: Opened at 73,040.00 CNY, closed at 73,420.00 CNY - Copper: Opened at 80,080.00 CNY, closed at 80,160.00 CNY - Nickel: Opened at 121,140.00 CNY, closed at 121,400.00 CNY - Zinc: Opened at 22,080.00 CNY, closed at 22,090.00 CNY [2] Warehouse Inventory Changes - As of September 22, warehouse data indicated the following changes in futures inventory: - Copper futures inventory decreased by 1,945 tons to 29,893 tons - Aluminum futures inventory decreased by 1,198 tons to 70,761 tons - Zinc futures inventory increased by 2,523 tons to 55,054 tons - Lead futures inventory decreased by 2,932 tons to 44,357 tons [3] Basis and Spot Prices - The basis and spot prices for various metals were reported as follows: - Copper: Spot price at 80,233.3 CNY, futures price at 80,120 CNY, basis at 113 CNY - Zinc: Spot price at 21,942 CNY, futures price at 21,995 CNY, basis at -53 CNY - Aluminum: Spot price at 20,826.7 CNY, futures price at 20,770 CNY, basis at 56 CNY [4][5]