Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For both short - term and medium - term, the view on both coking coal and coke is to adopt an oscillatory approach. The short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillatory, while the intraday trends are expected to be oscillatory and weak [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Production Data**: As of the week ending November 21, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 75.8 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8 thousand tons. The combined daily average output of coke from downstream coking plants and steel mills was 108.89 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 thousand tons [5]. - **Demand Outlook**: Although the profits of independent coking plants have improved significantly this week, the port market has already over - anticipated price cuts. There are doubts about the extent and sustainability of the improvement in downstream demand, so the positive factors on the demand side of coking coal are still insufficient [5]. - **Supply Outlook**: The easing of anti - involution expectations and the accelerated clearance of Mongolian coal have weakened the support on the supply side of coking coal. However, considering that coal mine production may decline after reaching the annual production target at the end of the year and the Politburo meeting in December, the sustainability of the downward trend of coking coal futures remains to be observed [5]. Coke (J) - **Market Price**: The spot market of raw material coking coal is weak, and downstream steel mills are in the red. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port has dropped to 1470 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton lower than the flat - price [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest data shows that both the supply and demand of coke have weakened slightly, and the fundamentals have not changed much. As of the week ending November 21, the combined daily average output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 108.89 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 thousand tons; the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 236.28 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 thousand tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline by 1.3 percentage points to 37.66%, indicating that steel mills are in a large - scale loss situation [6]. - **Market Trend**: The strong supply - side expectations of coking coal have cooled down, dragging down the cost support of coke. The main futures contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillatory trend. Continued attention should be paid to the supply situation of coking coal [6].

Core Viewpoint - Baotailong's stock has shown volatility with a year-to-date increase of 21.26%, but a recent decline of 12.05% over the past five trading days, indicating potential market fluctuations and investor sentiment changes [1] Company Overview - Baotailong New Materials Co., Ltd. is located in Qitaihe City, Heilongjiang Province, established on June 24, 2003, and listed on March 9, 2011. The company engages in coal mining, washing and processing, coking, chemical production, power generation, heating, new energy, and new materials [2] - The main revenue composition includes raw coal (28.60%), clean coal (22.92%), slack coal (22.61%), heating and electricity (21.68%), new materials (1.70%), and others [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Baotailong reported operating revenue of 479 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.55%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 118.44% to 50.36 million yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 332 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, Baotailong had 83,100 shareholders, a decrease of 10.86% from the previous period, with an average of 23,062 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 12.18% [2] - Major shareholders include Guotai Zhongzheng Coal ETF, which increased its holdings by 32.45 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, a new shareholder with 21.22 million shares [3]

Core Insights - China Xuyang Group has seen significant growth in its stock holdings, with a total of 352 million shares held through Hong Kong Stock Connect, representing 7.88% of total equity, an increase of 50 million shares since the beginning of 2025, marking an 88-fold increase since its listing [1] - The company has received multiple awards for its investor relations, information disclosure, ESG practices, and corporate governance, including recognition in the Fortune China 500 list, where it ranked 322nd in 2025, up 17 places from the previous year [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, China Xuyang Group reported a revenue of 47.543 billion yuan, a 3.2% increase, and has shown continuous growth in total assets and net assets since its listing, with total assets reaching 59.841 billion yuan (+11.2%) and net assets at 15.877 billion yuan (+9.7%) [3] - The company maintained profitability with a net profit of 0.98 billion yuan in 2024, demonstrating strong market competitiveness despite industry-wide losses [3] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved record high production volumes in its coke and chemical new materials businesses, with 10.88 million tons and 2.85 million tons produced, respectively, reflecting a significant increase in profitability metrics [3] Group 2: Business Expansion and Strategy - China Xuyang Group has established nine production parks across various regions, including Hebei, Shandong, and Inner Mongolia, and has provided operational management services to 18 coking and chemical companies [2] - The company has developed a unique chemical industry chain starting from coke, expanding into carbon materials, aromatics, and alcohol amines, while also venturing into hydrogen energy and new materials [2] - The operational scale of the company has reached 28.64 million tons per year, with a production capacity of 22.6 million tons of coke and 6.04 million tons of chemicals [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - As China Xuyang Group approaches its 30th anniversary in 2025, it aims to continue its strategic expansion from coke and chemicals to new energy and materials, increasing R&D investment and promoting digital transformation [4] - The company aspires to be a world-leading energy and chemical company, focusing on innovation and contributing to social progress, while maintaining its commitment to high-quality sustainable development [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on sectors with "inventory stabilization at low levels, capacity structure optimization, and continuous improvement in prosperity" for December [1][5] - The market experienced significant fluctuations due to multiple factors, including the cooling of Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations and ongoing inflation concerns, with cyclical sectors and defensive industries performing relatively well [1][5] - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, power equipment (batteries, inverters, wind power equipment), defense and military, coal, basic chemicals, and steel [1][5] Group 2 - Economic data from January to October indicates a continuous slowdown, influenced by high bases, anti-involution policies, and reduced local investment [5] - The report notes that the supply side has seen significant capacity clearance, with some industries beginning to see improvements in capacity utilization rates as demand recovers [5][9] - The report emphasizes that the third quarter saw an unexpected improvement in A-share earnings, particularly in consumer services, resource products, and midstream manufacturing [5][9] Group 3 - The report identifies specific sectors for attention, including non-bank financials, where leading brokerages are accelerating consolidation, and insurance companies are expected to see high growth in profitability [6] - In the power equipment sector, the supply-demand landscape is improving, with prices in the new energy and photovoltaic supply chain continuing to rise [6] - The defense and military sector is expected to benefit from increased global military spending and demand for military trade, driven by geopolitical tensions [6] Group 4 - The coal industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to stricter safety regulations, with winter heating supporting stable demand for thermal coal [6] - Basic chemicals are seeing a structural improvement in demand, particularly in the pesticide sector, which is benefiting from reduced internal competition [6] - The steel industry is expected to see structural opportunities driven by high-end manufacturing demand, particularly from emerging industries like new energy vehicles and humanoid robots [6]

机构观点 光大期货： 供应方面，部分原料煤价格下跌让利，焦企盈利水平有所修复，产地焦企开工情况稍有回升，下游对焦 炭的刚需采购，厂内出货情况较好，焦炭库存继续回落。需求端，近期期货盘面连续走弱，且钢材市场 表现难有明显改善，市场情绪一般，钢材利润修复不及预期，钢厂盈利能力不佳，成材出库一般，预计 短期焦炭盘面宽幅震荡运行。 消息面 据外媒报道，煤炭生产商哥伦比亚自然资源公司（CNR）向反垄断机构SIC提交的文件显示，该公司称 其收购哥伦比亚Puerto Nuevo（新港）煤炭码头的提议不会构成垄断，理由是其市场份额将保持在20% 以下。目前已经通过Puerto Nuevo港出口煤炭一段时间，去年通过该港口出口了245万吨煤炭。 截止至11月19日，秦唐沧三大港区煤炭库存2581.3万吨，较上周同期增加186.4万吨。 截至2025年11月18日，海运煤炭运价指数（OCFI）报收1072.85点，与11月11日相比下行144.58点，跌 幅为11.88%。 宝城期货： 整体来看，焦炭短期基本面好转，但持续性预计有限，需求担忧依然存在，且市场对前期的主要向上驱 动"成本端支撑"分歧增加，多空博弈渐增，焦炭期货震荡 ...

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国焦炭行业投资战略分析及发展前景研究报告》 上市企业：国际实业（000159）,美锦能源（000723）,蓝焰控股（000968）,山西焦煤（000983）,长春燃 气（600333）,安泰集团（600408）,云维股份（600725） 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年9月中国焦炭产量为0.4亿吨，同比增长8%；2025年1-9月中国焦炭累 计产量为3.8亿吨，累计增长3.5%。 2020-2025年1-9月中国焦炭产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The steel price is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with attention paid to the support level of 3000 for rebar and 3240 for hot-rolled coils. Short positions should be closed, and unilateral trading should be temporarily on hold [1][3] Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices in various regions decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and most futures contracts also declined [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot-rolled coils in some regions increased, while the profits of rebar in some regions decreased [1] - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, while the production of five major steel products increased by 1.9%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.0% [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 8.5%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 3.9%, with rebar and hot-rolled coils showing significant rebounds [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation, and unilateral trading should be on hold [4] Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of some varieties changed [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 14.6% week-on-week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 17.2%. The demand side showed a slight decline in pig iron production and an increase in the port's daily average desilting volume [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 0.8% [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint Both coke and coking coal are viewed as bearish in a range-bound manner. For coke, the reference range is 1550 - 1700, and for coking coal, it is 1050 - 1200. Temporarily hold off on trading [6] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased, and the basis of some contracts changed. The profits of coking plants and sample coal mines also changed [6] - **Supply and Demand**: The coke production decreased slightly, and the pig iron production decreased by 0.3%. The coking coal supply is expected to increase, but the production recovery is limited [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The overall inventory of coke and coking coal decreased slightly. The inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills decreased, while the inventory of coal mines and ports increased [6]

Core Insights - The coke sector experienced a decline of 2.54% on November 20, with Antai Group leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Sector Performance - The following table summarizes the closing prices and percentage changes of key stocks in the coke sector: - Baotailong (601011): Closed at 3.87, up 0.52% - Shanxi Coking (600740): Closed at 4.17, down 1.18% - Yunwei Co. (600725): Closed at 3.75, down 1.32% - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015): Closed at 4.19, down 2.10% - Meijin Energy (000723): Closed at 5.37, down 2.54% - Yunmei Energy (600792): Closed at 4.55, down 3.81% - Antai Group (600408): Closed at 5.07, down 9.63% [1] Capital Flow - The coke sector saw a net outflow of 152 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 166 million yuan [1] - The following table details the capital flow for individual stocks: - Antai Group (600408): Main funds net outflow of 3.38 million yuan, retail net inflow of 2.73 million yuan - Yunwei Co. (600725): Main funds net outflow of 2.05 million yuan, retail net outflow of 0.73 million yuan - Baotailong (601011): Main funds net outflow of 13.72 million yuan, retail net outflow of 20.12 million yuan - Shanxi Coking (600740): Main funds net outflow of 17.10 million yuan, retail net inflow of 13.75 million yuan - Shaanxi Black Cat (601015): Main funds net outflow of 18.61 million yuan, retail net inflow of 22.14 million yuan - Yunmei Energy (600792): Main funds net outflow of 20.40 million yuan, retail net inflow of 27.00 million yuan - Meijin Energy (000723): Main funds net outflow of 83.22 million yuan, retail net inflow of 56.04 million yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][5][8] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel market showed a weakening trend with a decline in prices and a decrease in demand. It's recommended to take a bearish approach in trading [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is expected to remain volatile at a high level. It's advised to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading [5] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Both the coke and coking coal markets are expected to have a bearish and volatile trend. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines, with reference ranges of 1600 - 1700 for coke and 1100 - 1200 for coking coal [8] 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Prices of most steel products decreased, such as the 05, 10, and 01 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar stopped falling and rebounded to 215 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billet and slab remained unchanged, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in most regions decreased, and the profit of rebar in some regions changed [1] Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1%, but the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.6%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also decreased [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.7%, with rebar inventory down 2.8%, and hot - rolled coil inventory basically unchanged [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume and the apparent demand of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils all decreased [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties increased, and the 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased [5] Supply - The weekly global iron ore shipment volume increased by 14.6%, but the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 17.2%. The monthly national import volume increased by 10.6% [5] Demand - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the average daily port clearance volume increased by 1.9%. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased [5] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [5] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices decreased, and the basis and spreads of some contracts changed. The steel - linked coking profit decreased, while the sample coal mine profit increased [8] Supply - The weekly coke output of full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9%, and the daily output of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The weekly output of raw coal and clean coal of sample coal mines increased [8] Demand - The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.1%, and the coke output of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills changed [8] Inventory Changes - Coke inventory in coking plants, steel mills, and ports decreased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly. Coking coal inventory in some sectors increased, and the overall inventory increased slightly [8] Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased, indicating a more unbalanced supply - demand relationship [8]