Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **commodity supercycle** and the impact of **anti-involution policies** on the **midstream materials and manufacturing industries**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: Anti-involution policies may lead to a revaluation of midstream materials and manufacturing industries, similar to the utility price increase trend observed in 2023-2024. Focus on industries with negative ROC minus VAC indicators, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment** [1][2][5]. 2. **Drivers of Commodity Supercycle**: The commodity supercycle is driven by **de-globalization** and **de-dollarization**. De-globalization restricts factor flow, raising inflation, while de-dollarization leads to increased commodity pricing. Historical parallels are drawn to the 1970s commodity bull market due to similar conditions [3][9]. 3. **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The Renminbi's exchange rate is highly correlated with market trends. In the medium term, the price gap between China and the US supports Renminbi appreciation, although short-term risks from US debt issuance could pressure the A-share market [1][6]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to follow the **Barbell Strategy**, allocating 80% of investments to safe assets like **gold, banks, resources, and utilities**, and 20% to sectors with potential catalysts such as **domestic computing power, robotics, and Hainan Free Trade Zone** [1][7]. 5. **US Treasury Account and Interest Rates**: The US Treasury General Account (TGA) needs to be replenished quickly, which may lead to a rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to near or above 5%. This could impact dollar liquidity and put pressure on the A-share market, particularly growth-style stocks [1][8]. 6. **Historical Context of Anti-Involution**: The current anti-involution policy is seen as part of a broader strategy to address economic deflation, with historical precedents in 1999 and 2015-2016. The focus should also be on demand-side policies [5][11]. 7. **Measuring Industry Involution**: The difference between ROIC and WACC serves as a measure of industry involution. Negative values indicate industries that are not creating value, with many midstream manufacturing and materials sectors currently in this state [12]. 8. **Recent Performance of Involved Industries**: Industries with high involution levels, such as **coke, rebar, plastics, fiberglass, and photovoltaic equipment**, have shown significant recent performance improvements, indicating potential investment opportunities [14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Price Trends**: From July 2022 to the present, gold and silver prices have increased by 100%, while platinum has risen by over 40%. Scarce metals have also seen significant price increases, suggesting a likely upward trend in commodity pricing [10]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: Certain commodities like **alumina and live pigs** have seen price increases not due to anti-involution but rather as part of the broader commodity supercycle, indicating the complexity of market dynamics [15][16]. 3. **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: In the absence of a fundamental reversal in globalization trends, a suggested asset allocation strategy includes 80% in safe assets and 20% in technology and AI sectors, providing a balanced approach to risk management [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of anti - involution narratives and expectations of incremental policies, the overall stock and commodity markets remain strong, while long - term bonds are under pressure. The market is affected by factors such as trade negotiations, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity Index - There is an obvious high - low rotation among sectors. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions in IM futures and switch to a small amount of short positions in put options on MO with a strike price of 6000 in the 08 contract, and reduce positions, maintaining a moderately bullish stance. On the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and pay attention to the capital situation and incremental policies [2]. Treasury Bonds - The risk assets suppress long - term bonds. With the tightening of the capital market, the short - selling sentiment in the bond futures market has increased, and the redemption pressure on bond funds may start to rise, which still suppresses the bond market. In terms of the curve strategy, it is possible to continue to bet on the steepening [2]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by the weakening of the US dollar's credit and its commodity attributes, and it oscillates above the 60 - day moving average. Silver has further upside potential due to the general rise of domestic industrial products and capital inflows, and long positions can be held. Gold continues to correct as the European Central Bank pauses rate cuts for the first time in a year and the risk - aversion sentiment eases [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract rebounds slightly. With the increasing expectation of anti - involution, the price continues to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 08 contract or short the 10 contract at high prices [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - The iron ore has insufficient upward momentum as the molten iron output slightly decreases and the port inventory slightly increases. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on iron ore. The steel price continues to oscillate strongly, and long positions can be held [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - The expectation of production - restriction documents is rising, the resumption of coal mines is lagging, the spot market is strong, and the transaction is picking up. The third round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has started, and there is still an expectation of price increases. It is recommended to take profits on long positions step by step at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The short - term sentiment fades, and high copper prices suppress demand. - Aluminum: The market sentiment is bullish, and the aluminum price oscillates at a high level, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. - Other non - ferrous metals also have different market trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on factors such as macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply - demand [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The macro - sentiment eases, and the demand expectation recovers, pushing up the oil price. - Other energy and chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions according to factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2]. Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends and trading suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [2]. Special Commodities - Glass: The document on air pollution prevention boosts market sentiment, and the spot transaction is strong. - Rubber: The macro - sentiment is positive, and supply disruptions due to rainy weather in overseas production areas and conflicts between Thailand and Cambodia drive up the rubber price. - Other special commodities also have corresponding market trends and trading suggestions [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon futures oscillate and rise to a new high, but attention should be paid to the risk of a pullback due to the increase in warehouse receipts. - Recycled lithium: The market sentiment is boosted, but the fundamental change is not significant. It is recommended to be cautious and stay on the sidelines [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is overall strong with cost support, but domestic demand is weak and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Iron ore follows the strong trend of the black - series, but the price is high and there is a risk of increased volatility [2]. - Coke and coking coal may maintain an upward trend in the short - term, and the impact of "anti - involution" needs policy attention [3][5]. - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon follow the thread trend, with relatively small price increases [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market strengthened today. Thread demand recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand declined, production dropped, and inventory increased slightly. High iron - water production and low inventory support steel prices. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are at a relatively high level. The market is optimistic, and the short - term trend is dominated by "anti - involution" [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated. Global shipments are slightly stronger than last year, and domestic arrivals have declined from high levels. Port inventories are stable. In the demand side, the terminal is in the off - season, but steel mills have profits and high iron - water production supports high - level ore handling. The market sentiment has improved, but the price is high [2]. Coke - The coke price rose and then fell. The third round of price increases by coking plants is underway. Coking profits are meager, and daily production has slightly increased. Overall inventory has decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, and the short - term trend is upward [3]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price hit the daily limit. Affected by policy documents, the price has risen significantly. Coal production has decreased slightly, the spot auction market has improved, and terminal inventory has increased. Total inventory has decreased, and short - term destocking is likely to continue. The short - term trend is upward [5]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price rose and then fell. Due to previous production cuts, inventory has decreased, and weekly production recovery is slow. Manganese ore inventory is increasing, which suppresses prices. In the short - term, the inventory is low, and the price is rising slightly following the thread [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fell at the end of the session. Iron - water production has increased, export demand is stable, and secondary demand has declined marginally. Supply has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased. It follows the thread trend with relatively weak price increases [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is mainly influenced by domestic macro - policies. The release of the Politburo meeting notice and the expiration of overseas tariff extension on August 12 are important time points. In the short - term, a bullish approach is recommended, but beware of callback risks if the market accelerates [5] - For coking coal, mine production recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. Inventory is shifting from mines to downstream. For coke, the first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further increases. The overall supply - demand of coke is tight, and if steel prices continue to rise, industrial chain profits may be transmitted upstream [6] - The news of the National Energy Administration's verification of coal mine over - production has heated up the market. The market sentiment is positive, and the monthly spread has started to go into positive arbitrage, indicating a reversal of industrial expectations [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices have increased, and futures are rising rapidly. Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is reported at 1029 yuan/ton (+0), and the active contract is reported at 1135.5 yuan/ton (+87). The basis is - 86.5 yuan/ton (-87), and the September - January spread is - 60 yuan/ton (+28.5) [2] 3.1.2 Supply - Mine production recovery is below expectations. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.85% (+0.53) [2] 3.1.3 Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18), showing flat demand [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 339.07 million tons (-38.11), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75), and the port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [3] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices have increased, and futures are rising rapidly. The quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is reported at 1320 yuan/ton (+50), and the active contract is reported at 1707.5 yuan/ton (+10). The basis is - 288 yuan/ton (+43.76), and the September - January spread is - 35.5 yuan/ton (+19) [4] 3.2.2 Supply - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18), and supply recovery is limited due to high raw material costs and delayed price increases [4][6] 3.2.3 Demand - Demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [4] 3.2.4 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: ★☆☆ for rebar, ★☆★ for hot-rolled coil [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall situation of the black metal market is complex, with different trends in each sub - sector. The "anti - involution" concept dominates the market, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and macro - level expectations. Attention should be paid to policy changes on both supply and demand sides [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Rebar: In the off - season, demand is weak, production continues to decline, and inventory accumulates slightly at a low level. Hot - rolled coil demand has resilience, production continues to fall, and inventory drops slightly. Iron - water production rises and remains high, and the market's negative feedback pressure is low under the low - inventory pattern. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively high. The market is affected by "anti - involution" and shows volatile fluctuations. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The supply side has increased global shipments compared to the previous period and is stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals have declined from a high level, and port inventories are stable with no obvious short - term inventory accumulation pressure. The demand side has high iron - water production in the short term as steel mills have high profit ratios and low motivation for active production cuts. The market sentiment is improved by macro - level factors, but the current price is high, and there is a risk of increased price fluctuations [3] Coke - The price is volatile during the day. The second round of price increases for coking has been proposed, and coking profits are meager. Coking daily production has increased slightly after a continuous decline. Overall inventory has decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness has increased. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream iron - water level remains high in the off - season. The "anti - involution" has limited impact, and the futures price is at a premium, with a possible short - term upward trend [4] Coking Coal - The price hit the daily limit at the end of the day. Affected by policy documents, the futures price has risen significantly. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, the spot auction market has improved, and the transaction price has continued to rise. The terminal inventory has increased, and the total inventory has decreased month - on - month. The production - end inventory has continued to decline significantly, and inventory reduction is likely to continue in the short term. The "anti - involution" impact is gradually emerging, and the futures price is at a premium, with a possible short - term upward trend [6] Silicon Manganese - The price has declined during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, and the weekly production recovery rate is slow. The spot manganese ore price has risen following the futures price. Affected by "anti - involution", the market has increased expectations for demand - side policies, and the price follows the rebar trend with a relatively small increase [7] Silicon Iron - The price has declined during the day. Iron - water production has risen above 242. Export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand has decreased marginally. Overall demand is acceptable. Supply has increased slightly, market transactions are average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has declined. Affected by "anti - involution", the price follows the rebar trend but has relatively weak upward momentum [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction in the steel spot market is not significant. Demand shows some resilience despite being weak, and low inventory eases supply pressure. The cost increase drives up the steel price center, and low inventory also increases price elasticity. The steel price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and a bullish trading strategy is recommended, while paying attention to demand changes and supply - side policy implementation [27]. - In the coke market, there is a potential for four rounds of price increases, and additional increases depend on the situation of coking coal. In the coking coal market, the low - point of valuation within the year has been reached, and the future situation depends on the implementation of coal over - production policies and the impact of imported coal [56][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Demand and Inventory - **Rebar**: Affected by hot and rainy weather, rebar demand is weak, and the apparent demand has declined month - on - month. However, the demand is expected to improve month - on - month after August. Production remains at a relatively low level, inventory depletion has slowed down, and the absolute inventory value is still low, which supports the price [6]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Demand remains stable with some resilience. Production has declined from its high, and the inventory is also at a low level [9]. Iron Water Production - Steel mills are profitable, and with low overall inventory, the motivation for blast furnace production cuts is insufficient. Iron water production remains high, strongly supporting the demand for furnace materials. During the off - season, the negative feedback pressure in the market is small, and as the cost rises significantly, the steel price center gradually moves up. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [11]. Industry Conditions - **Construction industry**: From January to June, real estate investment, sales area, and new construction area decreased by 11.2%, 3.5%, and 20.0% year - on - year respectively, remaining weak. Policy stimulus needs to be strengthened. Infrastructure investment continues to play a supporting role, but its growth rate has declined [17]. - **Manufacturing industry**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, rising for two consecutive months but still below 50. With the PPI in the negative range for nearly 3 years, the "anti - involution" expectation has increased significantly. Recently, the prices of major industrial products have rebounded, which may stimulate restocking demand, but the actual performance remains to be seen [21]. Export - From January to June, China's cumulative steel exports reached 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, exports were 9.678 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%. Although exports face some pressure to decline due to tariff policies, the overall level will remain high due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and the continued overseas demand [24]. Coke Market Market Contradiction - Currently, iron water production remains at an inverse - seasonal high and is expected to be sustainable. Since June, the cost of coking coal has soared, leading to a significant deterioration in coking plant profits, which are significantly lower than steel - making profits. As a result, there is a temporary shortage of coke supply [49]. Trade and Inventory - Even after two rounds of price increases, the current coke futures price shows a significant premium, which will stimulate trade demand. Port coke inventory has been decreasing, and there is potential for restocking. The continuous reduction of visible coke inventory provides motivation for price increases [51][54]. Market Outlook - Overall, the spot price of coke has increased for the second round. Considering the high - level and resilient iron water production and the poor profitability of coking enterprises, as well as the potential for restocking after the significant reduction of carbon element inventory, there is room for coke prices to continue to rise following the cost of coking coal. It is expected that there will be four rounds of price increases, and additional increases depend on the situation of coking coal [56]. Coking Coal Market Supply - Since July, some previously shut - down coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, but overall production recovery is slow due to heavy rain and mine face changes. In Wuhai, Inner Mongolia, production recovery is limited due to environmental inspections, but it is expected to gradually increase as coal prices rebound. The suspension of Mongolian coal customs clearance during the Nadam Fair has led to a significant decline in port inventory, but the daily vehicle traffic at the Ganqimaodu port has returned to over a thousand, and imports are expected to increase [60][63]. Price and Market Outlook - The price of Mongolian coal has risen in resonance with the futures market. The narrowing price difference between domestic and foreign coal restricts the further rise of coking coal prices. The power coal price is under pressure as daily consumption peaks. Overall, the low - point of coking coal valuation within the year has been reached, and the future situation depends on the implementation of coal over - production policies and the impact of imported coal [62][65][69]. Ferroalloy Market Supply - After the price rebound, ferroalloy production has gradually increased, but at a relatively slow rate, indicating a rational production side. Attention should be paid to whether the supply will expand rapidly to an oversupply situation if the futures price continues to rise [78].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1006.00 | +80.00↑ | J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1603.00 | +85.00↑ | | | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 812627.00 | -24982.00↓ | J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 55868.00 | +1306.00↑ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -83710.00 | +87.00↑ | 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -3829.00 | +99.00↑ | | | JM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 50.00 | +0.50↑ | J1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 51.00 | +6.00↑ | | | 焦煤仓单（日，张） | 0.00 | -500.00↓ | 焦炭仓单（日，张） | 760.00 | 0.00 | | | 干其毛都蒙5原煤（日，元/吨） | 757.00 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Steel - The rise of ferrous metals since June was due to environmental inspections on coking coal leading to production cuts and a rebound in coking coal prices, along with resilient off - season demand for steel and low inventory levels. In July, the "anti - involution" trading improved market sentiment, and with marginal improvements in industry supply - demand and positive market sentiment, ferrous metals rose strongly. High - frequency data shows off - season demand resilience, high steel mill production, and raw material inventory de - stocking due to marginal supply decline. Later, a marginal increase in inventory would require coking coal production recovery or a decline in steel demand. Macroscopically, there is good sentiment for commodity buying under the expectation of supply - side contraction. The resistance levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils at around 3100 and 3270 yuan have been removed, and the next pressure levels are at 3250 and 3400 yuan [1] Iron Ore - Last week, the iron ore 09 contract rose strongly. Globally, the shipping volume decreased slightly, but arrivals at 45 ports increased slightly. Future arrivals are expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, after the lifting of production restrictions in Tangshan on July 15, iron - making water production rebounded significantly, and steel exports remained strong, providing support. Port inventory increased slightly, while steel mill equity ore inventory decreased rapidly. In the future, iron - making water production in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials. With the expected introduction of a growth - stabilizing plan for ten key industries and positive sentiment from the "anti - involution" meeting, iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The strategy is to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [4] Coke - Last week, coke futures fluctuated upwards, and the first round of spot price increases was implemented. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, the market expected an improvement, and mainstream coking enterprises initiated the first round of price increases, which were accepted by mainstream steel mills on the 17th. There is still an expectation of further price increases this week. On the supply side, some coal mines and coking plants resumed production after the inspection team left, but production was difficult to increase due to losses. On the demand side, iron - making water production increased after the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan. In terms of inventory, coking plant and port inventories decreased, while steel mill inventories increased. Due to low prices, cost - push and steel mill restocking demand are favorable for future coke price increases. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations as the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] Coking Coal - Last week, coking coal futures fluctuated upwards, and the spot market generally rebounded. Domestic coking coal auctions improved, and most coal mines saw better sales. Although coal mines resumed production after the inspection team left, overall production recovery was slow due to strong sales. Imported coking coal prices rebounded slightly, and port transactions improved. On the demand side, coking plant operations increased slightly, and iron - making water production rebounded rapidly after the lifting of restrictions in Tangshan. Steel mills and coking plants increased their restocking efforts. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventory decreased from a high level, port inventory increased, and downstream inventory increased from a low level. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in East China rose from 3200 to 3220 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot in East China rose from 3290 to 3320 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits for hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions showed declines, such as a 41 - yuan decline in East China rebar profit [1] Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water production increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 4.5 to 868.2, a 0.5% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.9 to 1337.7, a 0.1% decrease [1] Demand - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 15.3 to 206.2, a 6.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 1.3 to 323.8, a 0.4% increase [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also showed significant increases. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased from 25.2 to 34.5, a 36.9% increase [4] Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 178.2 to 2662.1, a 7.2% increase, while the global shipping volume decreased by 7.8 to 2987.1, a 0.3% decrease. The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.6 to 242.4, a 1.1% increase [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 62.1 to 13785.21, a 0.5% increase, while the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 157.5 to 8822.2, a 1.8% decrease [4] Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices showed slight fluctuations, with the 09 contract at 1518 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decrease, and the 01 contract at 1559 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase. The first round of spot price increases of 50/55 yuan/ton was implemented [6] Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 64.2, a 0.2% increase, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.2% decrease. The total coke inventory decreased by 5.3 to 925.7, a 0.64% decrease [6] Supply and Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 1.2 to - 6.1, a 20.4% decrease [6] Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices increased, with the 09 contract rising by 8 to 926, a 0.8% increase, and the 01 contract rising by 8 to 976, a 0.84% increase. Spot prices generally increased [6] Production and Inventory - The raw coal production of sample coal mines decreased by 1.6 to 866.6, a 0.2% decrease, and the clean coal production decreased by 1.1 to 442.4, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of clean coal in Fenwei coal mines decreased by 18.3 to 158.1, a 10.3% decrease [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report offers daily outlooks and trend intensities for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, based on their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to move up in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Positive sentiment supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Likely to trade in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Supply - demand contradictions are emerging, and the price is strengthening, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][18]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Alumina sees capital inflows, with a trend intensity of 1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits the upside, with a trend intensity of 0; Stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Pay attention to lithium - mining industry policies, and it is expected to run strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - demand de - stocking makes the market resilient, with a trend intensity of 0; Polysilicon has upward momentum due to sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][38]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it will be bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][42]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The market trading atmosphere is strong, and prices will have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 for both [2][51]. - **Coke**: After the first round of price hikes, it will be slightly bullish in a volatile way, with a trend intensity of 0; Coking coal will be slightly bullish, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][55]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price will stabilize in a volatile manner, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][60]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental rally may be premature, and beware of sentiment reversal [2][5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Pay attention to the previous high - technical resistance level and guard against a pull - back after a rally [2][5]. - **Corn**: Continues to rebound [2][5]. - **Sugar**: Trades in a range [2][5]. - **Cotton**: Notice market sentiment changes [2][5]. - **Eggs**: The peak season arrives first, and the sentiment for culling decreases [2][5]. - **Hogs**: Wait for the end - of - month verification [2][5]. - **Peanuts**: Slightly bullish in a volatile way [2][5]. Others - **Log**: Trades with wide - range fluctuations [2][64].