铝类产业日报 2025/6/23 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,365.00 80.00 | -100.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -25.00↓ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 2,906.00 58.00 | +16.00↑ -3.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 253,597.00 | +89586.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 286,556.00 | -4194.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamentals remained weak, with supply at a high level and demand recovering slowly. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated, with fundamentals under pressure. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand. An approach of shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points is recommended [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore supply. The demand is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - to - long - term, a shorting - on - rallies strategy is suggested, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to see an increase in supply and potential inventory accumulation. The medium - term price is expected to reach the cash cost of 2,700 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is supported in the short - term but may face pressure in Q3, with the price expected to range around 20,000 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Catalog Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.13%. The futures import loss decreased by 5.75%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% [1]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP and external - purchased raw materials for producing electrowon nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. - **New Energy Materials Price**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.36%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed various changes [1]. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62%, and imports increased by 8.18%. Inventories in various regions decreased to different extents [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The spot prices of 304/2B stainless steel remained stable, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 11.54% [4]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%, and the price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36%, imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85% [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased [6]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. In April, imports increased by 56.33% and exports increased by 233.72% [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 0.11%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 20.74% [8]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased by 1.10% [8]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed significant changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% [8]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%, and the premium decreased [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased [10]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%, and in April, imports increased by 2.40% and exports increased by 75.76% [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%, and the premium decreased. The prices of alumina in different regions decreased slightly [13]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [13]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% [13]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap spread increased by 1.08% [14]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%, and in April, imports decreased by 19.06% [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term and short positions on rallies are recommended in the medium - to - long - term due to eased supply tightness of bauxite, weakened cost support, and limited demand growth [8]. - Electrolytic aluminum may fall from high levels and then maintain a volatile trend in the short - term, with attention on the pressure at the 20,500 level, as production capacity remains high, demand has not significantly recovered, and social inventory is extremely low [8]. - ADC12 aluminum alloy is likely to be volatile in the short - term and short positions on rallies are suggested in the medium - to - long - term, considering the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, high inventory, and the impact of US tariff policies [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 View and Strategy - Alumina: The overall supply tightness of bauxite in China is gradually alleviated by imported ores, and the cost support for alumina is weakening. It is in a situation of strong supply and demand, but demand growth is limited, so it may be volatile and weak in the short - term and suitable for shorting on rallies in the long - term [8]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Production capacity is at an extremely high level, but total demand has not significantly recovered. Social inventory is decreasing and at a very low level. Affected by positive signals from China - US talks, the price once rose to 20,500. It may fall from high levels and then maintain a volatile trend [8]. - Aluminum alloy: The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of ADC12 is gradually forming, with high inventory and demand suppressed by US tariff policies. Only wheel hub export orders are good. The industry is in a loss state, providing some support for prices. It may be volatile in the short - term and suitable for shorting on rallies in the long - term [8]. 3.2 Market Review - Due to positive signals from China - US talks, LME aluminum first rose and then fell, with a 2.1% increase compared to last week, and SHFE aluminum continued to rise, with a 1.84% increase. Alumina was weakly volatile, with a 1.69% decline [11][16]. 3.3 Key Data Tracking of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum - Bauxite: Domestic bauxite prices remained stable, with prices in Guizhou at 500 yuan/ton, Shanxi at 530 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 450 yuan/ton. Overseas, the CIF price of Guinean bauxite remained at $80/ton, and that of Australian bauxite fell to $69/ton. Inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 26.43 million tons, a 300,000 - ton increase [21]. - Alumina: Some regional prices fell slightly. The import profit and loss recovered to around 12 yuan/ton, and future imports will remain weak. Production cost decreased to 2,845 yuan/ton, and production profit rose to around 450 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate increased slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate but remained at the lowest level in the past four years [26][31][36]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Aluminum prices rose, and spot premiums and discounts in various regions fell significantly. Aluminum rod inventory continued to decline, reaching 141,000 tons. SHFE and LME inventories were at extremely low levels [44][49][52]. 3.4 Key Data Tracking of Aluminum Alloy - ADC12: Spot prices in various regions mainly rose to 19,600 yuan/ton. In May, domestic scrap aluminum shipments reached 59,010 tons, at a very high level in the past five years, and raw material supply was sufficient. From January to April, the cumulative import volume of aluminum scrap was 697,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.66% but a continuous slowdown in growth. In May, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 41.32%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 38.04%. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots reached 513,500 tons, at a very high level in the past five years. The average cost of ADC12 in May fell to 19,537 yuan/ton, and production profit fell to 173 yuan/ton. Social inventory and in - factory inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, with the former at a medium level and the latter at the highest level in the past three years [57][61][65]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province's Binzhou City is undergoing significant industrial transformation and capacity adjustment, focusing on high-end manufacturing and sustainable growth, with notable achievements in various sectors [1][2][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Industrial Transformation - Binzhou has 38 major industrial categories and has successfully transferred or exited 1,247 billion yuan worth of capacity in sectors like coking, oil refining, and aluminum [1] - The city is implementing a "three-year action plan" to strengthen its manufacturing sector, aiming for sustainable and high-quality growth [1][2] - In 2024, Binzhou's five major industrial clusters are projected to generate over 1.27 trillion yuan in revenue, with industrial revenue surpassing 1 trillion yuan for the first time, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7% [2] Group 2: Innovation and R&D - Binzhou's R&D investment is expected to reach 3.7% of GDP in 2024, maintaining the highest ratio in the province for four consecutive years [3] - The number of high-tech enterprises in Binzhou has surpassed 800, with a 14.7% increase in technology-based SMEs [3] - The establishment of the "Industrial Intelligent Manufacturing Joint Fund" and the first low-altitude flight service center in the province highlights the city's commitment to innovation [3] Group 3: Digital Economy - Binzhou is promoting digital transformation across industries, with 650 enterprises undergoing digital upgrades and 376 "Morning Star Factories" established [4] - The city has created three national-level intelligent factories and seven provincial-level "Industry Brains," leading the province in these initiatives [4] - The construction of the Weiqiao National Science and Technology Center's second phase has been completed, enhancing the region's computing power [4] Group 4: Green Development - The city is focusing on green technology and has added five national-level green factories and two green industrial parks, ranking first in the province [5] - Energy efficiency in key industries is improving, with significant reductions in water usage per unit of GDP and industrial value added [5] - By April 2025, Binzhou's total installed capacity for renewable energy is expected to reach 8.2 million kilowatts, marking a 29.67% year-on-year increase [5] Group 5: Business Environment - Binzhou is enhancing its business environment through initiatives aimed at supporting entrepreneurs and improving legal frameworks [6] - The city has been recognized for its innovative practices in project approvals and land leasing, contributing to a more favorable business climate [6] - In 2024, several local enterprises ranked among the top in national and provincial lists, indicating a strong business presence [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Nickel - The nickel market is expected to trade in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The short - term fundamentals lack drivers, and the mid - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upside space [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main operating range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The supply is high, the demand is slowly recovering, and the social inventory is still high [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton. The supply is sufficient, the demand is affected by policies, and the inventory is at a high level [6]. Tin - The tin price is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the long term due to the slow supply recovery and weak demand expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points [7]. Zinc - In the long term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. The price may maintain a high - level shock if the mine supply growth is lower than expected and the downstream consumption is better than expected. Otherwise, the price may decline [10]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price is supported by the low inventory and low warehouse receipts, with the upper limit around 20,500 yuan/ton. In Q3, the price may face pressure, with the support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.64% to 120,725 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel price decreased by 0.71% to 121,775 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 decreased by 0.31% to - 192 dollars/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The prices of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,750 yuan/ton and 12,900 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 60,500 yuan/ton, and the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.25% to 58,900 yuan/ton [6]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.11% to 265,300 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.85% to - 82.5 dollars/ton [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 1.08% to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 528 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.48% to 20,630 yuan/ton, and the alumina prices in Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi decreased [13]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.39% to 78,645 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 912 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and the import volume increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% to 25,676 tons [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and the import volume increased by 10.26% to 14.21 million tons [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate production in May decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and the demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [6]. - **Tin**: The 4 - month tin ore import increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and the SMM refined tin production in May decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 3.59% to 7,107 tons [7]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc production in May decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons, and the import volume increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 4.41% to 7.81 million tons [10]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina production in May increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 3.98% to 45.80 million tons [13]. - **Copper**: The electrolytic copper production in May increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 19.06% to 25.00 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.76% to 81.28 million tons [14]. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: The macro environment is stable, the spot market sentiment is low, and the cost support is slightly weakened. The downstream demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market trading is light, and the demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The supply is high, and the demand is slowly recovering [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is volatile, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is affected by policies [6]. - **Tin**: The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply recovery is slow, and the demand expectation is weak [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply - side mine is loose, and the demand - side is gradually weakening. The downstream consumption is in the off - season [10]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is supported by the low inventory, but the demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. The alumina supply is gradually increasing [13]. - **Copper**: The macro environment is weak, and the "strong reality" of the fundamentals restricts the decline. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to pressure on the demand side in Q3 [14].

1. Tin Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Supply - side recovery is slow, and short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the weak demand outlook, it is advisable to focus on the supply - side recovery rhythm and adopt a short - selling strategy based on inventory and import data inflection points [1]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.11% to 265,600 yuan/ton, and SMM 1 tin premium dropped 13.64% to 950 yuan/ton. LME 0 - 3 premium fell 9.85% to - 82.50 dollars/ton [1]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: Import loss increased by 11.20% to - 10,937.43 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.09 [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped 880.00% to - 390 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: April tin ore imports increased 18.48% to 9,861 tons. SMM refined tin production in May decreased 2.37% to 14,840 tons [1]. - **Inventory Change**: SHEF inventory decreased 3.59% to 7,107 tons, and social inventory increased 1.00% to 8,945 tons [1]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, the balance may be in surplus due to increased processing output and some lithium spodumene lithium extraction increments. The upstream has not seen substantial large - scale production cuts, and the futures price is expected to run weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 60,650 yuan/ton, and the basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) rose 461.54% to 730 yuan/ton [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, lithium carbonate production decreased 2.34% to 72,080 tons, and demand increased 4.81% to 93,938 tons. Total inventory increased 1.49% to 97,637 tons [2]. 3. Nickel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the short term, the fundamentals change little and lack driving forces. The disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with the main contract referring to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel dropped 0.33% to 121,500 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium rose 3.09% to 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Electrowinning Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP producing electrowon nickel decreased 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton [4]. - **New Energy Material Price**: Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,815 yuan/ton [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 remained at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased 2.62% to 35,350 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.39% to 25,616 tons [4]. 4. Stainless Steel Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The disk returns to the fundamental trading logic. In the short term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to the range of 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped 0.39% to 12,750 yuan/ton, and the basis spread decreased 3.90% to 370 yuan/ton [7]. - **Raw Material Price**: The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) dropped 0.59% to 934 yuan/nickel point [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2507 - 2508 rose to - 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.36% to 179.12 million tons, and 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased 2.04% to 53.08 million tons [7]. 5. Zinc Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side easing cycle. If the growth rate of TC exceeds expectations, it indicates smooth transmission to the refined zinc end. The downstream is in a seasonal off - season, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot dropped 0.31% to 22,240 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 240 yuan/ton [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: Import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 8.33 [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 dropped to 195 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: May refined zinc production decreased 1.08% to 54.94 million tons. Galvanizing开工率 increased to 60.06% [10]. - **Inventory**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased 2.77% to 7.71 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.78% to 13.1 million tons [10]. 6. Aluminum Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: For alumina, the short - term futures price has limited downward adjustment space, and the medium - term reference cash cost is 2,700 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are supported, but there is pressure in Q3, with the lowest support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.39% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the premium was - 210 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in different regions showed different degrees of decline [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: May alumina production increased 2.66% to 727.21 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [13]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased 8.73% to 46.00 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.67% to 35.3 million tons [13]. 7. Copper Industry - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: In the context of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices will fluctuate in the short - term. The "rush - to - export" demand overdrafts subsequent demand, and there is uncertainty in US copper import tariff policies. The main contract refers to the range of 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Summary by Directory**: - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper dropped 0.15% to 78,955 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped to 35 yuan/ton [14]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of 2506 - 2507 rose to 340 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: May electrolytic copper production increased 1.12% to 113.83 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports in April decreased 19.06% to 25.00 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased 2.69% to 14.48 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased 5.08% to 10.19 million tons [14].

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月16日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 狱跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 265600 | 265300 | 300 | 0.11% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 950 | 1100 | -150 | -13.64% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 266100 | 265800 | 300 | 0.11% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -82.50 | -75.10 | -7.40 | -9.85% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 那值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口密亏 | -10937.43 | -9835.62 | -1101.81 | -11.20% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.09 | 8. ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks a significant step for China's futures market, aligning with the country's "dual carbon" strategy and enhancing the pricing mechanism for aluminum alloys [3][5][9] Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day, the main contract AD2511 opened with a price of 18365 yuan/ton, rising to 19190 yuan/ton by the close, reflecting a 4.49% increase with a trading volume of 9723 lots [3][7] - The contract experienced a peak increase of over 5% during the trading session, indicating strong market interest [3][7] - On June 11, the closing price for AD2511 was 19400 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.91% [3] Group 2: Pricing and Cost Analysis - The average cost of aluminum alloy production was reported at 20086 yuan/ton, indicating a loss of 486 yuan/ton for producers, with varying costs across regions [4][8] - The initial listing price of 18365 yuan/ton was considered low compared to the current market price of around 20000 yuan/ton, creating an arbitrage opportunity for traders [7][8] - The pricing discrepancy reflects underlying industry challenges, including weak demand and cost pressures [7][8] Group 3: Industry Context and Future Outlook - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys, with an estimated production capacity of 13 million tons and a consumption of 6.73 million tons in 2024 [5] - The aluminum alloy market is characterized by its applications in various sectors, including automotive and electronics, and is crucial for recycling and low-carbon initiatives [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the price of AD2511 may experience volatility due to seasonal demand fluctuations and raw material price changes, with short-term upward momentum expected [8][9]

Group 1 - The meeting between the Secretary of the Autonomous Region and the Chairman of Jinjiang Group highlighted the importance of Jinjiang Group's contributions to the economic and social development of Guangxi [1] - Guangxi is focusing on high-quality development, particularly in the non-ferrous metal industry, and aims to enhance its industrial system and cooperation with ASEAN in artificial intelligence [1] - Jinjiang Group is encouraged to leverage its strengths to participate in the high-quality development of Guangxi's non-ferrous metal industry and optimize its investment layout in chemical new materials and aluminum [1] Group 2 - Jinjiang Group expressed gratitude for the support received from the local government and outlined its ongoing projects in Guangxi, including the construction of the Baise Tiandong Circular Economy Industrial Park and the Longzhou Ecological Alumina Project [2] - The company aims to expand its business in Guangxi by focusing on local needs and its capabilities, while also targeting the ASEAN chemical and non-ferrous metal markets [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term macro atmosphere has warmed up, driving up the prices of most non - ferrous metals. The copper price is expected to maintain a strong trend, with attention on the pressure at the 80,000 yuan mark. The aluminum price is expected to continue to stabilize and recover, and the monthly positive spread can be considered. The nickel price may run weakly [5][6][7] Group 3: Summary of Industry Dynamics Copper - Freeport - McMoRan Inc. believes that the copper tariffs threatened by former US President Trump may backfire and lead to a decline in copper demand. China's Sinomine Resource Group has suspended copper smelting operations at its Tsumeb plant in Namibia due to a shortage of copper concentrates caused by the rapid expansion of global smelting capacity [9] Aluminum - In May 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production index increased steadily, while the alumina production index decreased slightly. On June 10, the cast aluminum alloy futures were listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. In 2024, China's recycled copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc production reached 19.15 million tons, accounting for 24% of the production of ten non - ferrous metals, with recycled aluminum production exceeding 10 million tons and a carbon emission reduction contribution rate of over 85% [10] Nickel - On June 11, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract, with different prices for various types of nickel [11] Group 4: Summary of Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts of copper basis, monthly spread, domestic visible inventory, overseas exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15] Aluminum - The report includes charts of aluminum basis, domestic social inventory, overseas exchange inventory, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27] Nickel - The report presents charts of nickel basis, monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][43]