Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a recent pullback in the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876) after achieving a five-day consecutive rise, with a slight decline of 0.65% on January 8, 2023, prompting investors to see this as a buying opportunity [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has seen a net subscription of 64.2 million units, with a total net inflow of 140 million yuan over the past five days [1] - Key stocks in the ETF, particularly those related to commercial aerospace, have shown significant gains, with Yunnan Zhenye leading with over a 7% increase, followed by Steel Research High-Tech with over 4%, and several others exceeding 3% [1] Group 2 - As of December 2025, China's gold reserves are reported to be 74.15 million ounces, marking an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of November, indicating the central bank's continuous accumulation of gold for the 14th consecutive month [3] - Global economic conditions, including stagflation and the U.S. deficit monetization, are expected to support a bullish trend for gold into 2026, which may also positively impact related nonferrous and strategic metals [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a dovish monetary policy, likely leading to gradual interest rate cuts, which would create a favorable environment for nonferrous metal prices [3] Group 3 - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF and its associated funds comprehensively cover various sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to different economic cycles [4] - The ETF's index includes precious metals (for hedging), strategic metals (for growth), and industrial metals (for recovery), providing a broad-based investment strategy [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The nickel market is in a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cyclical transformation, with wide - range fluctuations. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by the real fundamentals, and the disk mainly plays on Indonesian policies [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel futures, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 147,720, the trading volume is 1,132,256. For stainless - steel futures, the closing price of the main contract is 13,885, and the trading volume is 547,902 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - In the nickel industry chain, the price of 1 imported nickel is 145,850, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 948, and the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55. In the stainless - steel aspect, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,900, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55 Inner Mongolia) is 8,200 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mining companies may face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government to reduce the fines [4]. 3.3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4].

Group 1: Spring Market Dynamics - The spring market is characterized by a combination of policy expectations, liquidity easing, and an earnings vacuum period, creating a stage for market opportunities rather than being solely driven by seasonal factors [1] - The initiation of the spring market has been occurring earlier, with data showing that in the last five years, three instances saw the spring market start in December of the previous year, indicating a new market trend of "year-end sprint" [2] Group 2: Historical Performance - Historical data indicates that the spring market has varied in duration and performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing significant gains in various years, such as a 47.20% increase in 2015 and a projected 15.20% increase in 2024 [3] Group 3: External and Domestic Support - On the international front, reduced uncertainties, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, are expected to enhance liquidity and attract foreign capital into the A-share market [4] - Domestically, a series of policy measures and early issuance of local government bonds are expected to provide strong support for economic recovery and market growth, with significant inflows into A-share ETFs indicating a favorable liquidity environment [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on three main sectors: - The technology sector, which is expected to benefit from policy support in areas like artificial intelligence and semiconductor industries [6] - The cyclical sector, particularly in renewable energy and high-end manufacturing, which is anticipated to gain from global economic recovery and domestic policy initiatives [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views The report offers insights into the trends and outlooks of various commodities in the futures market on January 8, 2026. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of each commodity, providing investment suggestions and trend intensities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe-haven sentiment has rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [5][6]. - **Silver**: Prices have corrected from high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed. The trend intensity is 0 [9]. - **Zinc**: Prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. The trend intensity is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have retreated after reaching highs. The trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Prices have slightly declined. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Alumina**: Prices are oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Platinum**: Prices are oscillating to find a direction. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: Prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a tug - of - war between real - world pressure and the narrative of a cyclical shift, with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging, and the market is mainly focused on Indonesia's policies. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and market sentiment changes should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With silicon material production cuts, short positions can be established on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is significantly affected by news. The trend intensity is - 1 [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are fluctuating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Coke**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [52]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [53]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [56]. - **Para - Xylene**: Spot supply is sufficient, and prices are under short - term pressure, with a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **PTA**: Prices are in a high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still medium - term pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are trending strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [72]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products continues to decline, and the basis is weakly stable. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **PP**: Macroeconomic sentiment is boosting, but fundamental improvements are limited. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [80]. - **Pulp**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [85]. - **Glass**: The prices of raw sheets are stable. The trend intensity is 0 [90]. - **Methanol**: Prices are oscillating and falling. The trend intensity is 0 [94]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [114]. - **PVC**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [122]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are oscillating in a narrow range, and there is still support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility is decreasing, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are mainly oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [148]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are rebounding within a range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities between months. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [166]. - **Cotton**: Prices are fluctuating with the overall market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [170]. - **Egg**: Sentiment for the far - month contracts is weakening. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Live Pig**: There is negative feedback in demand. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanut**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [186]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The freight rate peak has emerged; for the 02 contract, wait and see, and for the 04 contract, short on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [128].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The main theme of cooling employment in the US remains unchanged, but the resilience of the service industry offsets the downward pressure. In the domestic market, the upward momentum of the A - share market has weakened, and the market has entered a stage of differentiated game. Precious metals are facing increased short - term adjustment pressure, while various industrial metals and agricultural products show different trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: In December, the US ADP employment number turned positive but was lower than expected. The JOLTS job openings in November dropped to a more - than - one - year low, and the number of job openings was lower than the number of unemployed for the first time in four years, indicating a slowdown in recruitment. However, the ISM service industry PMI in December rose to a more - than - one - year high of 54.4, with a significant rebound in new orders, driving a phased recovery in service - industry employment and a slowdown in price increases. The US dollar index rebounded to 98.7, and the upward momentum of metals paused. Oil prices continued to adjust [2] - Domestic: On Wednesday, the A - share market fluctuated widely, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting 4100 points but failing to break through, closing at 4085 points, showing a marginal weakening of upward momentum. The broad - based index structure was differentiated, and the market entered a stage of differentiated game. In January, domestic economic data and policies are in a relatively empty period, and the market depends more on the self - evolution of capital structure and risk preference [3] Precious Metals - On Wednesday, precious metals futures showed high - level fluctuations during the day session. At night, the Shanghai Futures Exchange further tightened the supervision of silver futures, leading to a sharp decline in precious metal prices. The COMEX gold futures fell 0.65% to $4467.1 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures fell 3.77% to $77.98 per ounce. The exchange continued to strengthen risk - control measures. The Bloomberg Commodity Index will conduct an annual weight rebalancing from January 8th to 14th, which may cause a "technical sell - off" by passive funds. Although the long - term bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged, short - term adjustment pressure has increased [4][5] Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rise strongly, while LME copper adjusted to around $12800 last night. The domestic spot market for electrolytic copper had poor trading, and downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices. The LME inventory decreased to 143,000 tons, while the COMEX inventory continued to rise to 512,000 tons. After copper prices hit a new high the day before, overseas funds' long - positions took profits and sold off. The high copper prices continued to suppress consumption in major demand countries. Fundamentally, the global concentrate remained in a tight pattern, and the shortage at the cost - end would support copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high - level shock in the short term and enter a valuation - repair range [6][7] Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,410 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The LME aluminum closed at $3083.5 per ton, down 1.61%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the aluminum rod inventory in the main domestic consumption areas also increased. After a significant increase, there was profit - taking. However, the weak employment data strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's further easing policy, and the price rebounded at night. Fundamentally, the continuous and rapid increase in aluminum prices suppressed downstream demand, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots was expected to continue to accumulate. The market's long - positions showed signs of convergence, and there may be a need for price repair [8][9][10] Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2938 yuan/ton, up 4.97%. The national average spot price of alumina decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The market's macro sentiment and the expectation of alumina production cuts in January led to a rebound in the futures price first, resulting in a divergence between futures and spot prices and the appearance of an inter - period arbitrage window. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has not changed much recently, and the theoretical production capacity is still in excess. In the short term, the supply is still in excess, and a short - position thinking after the rebound is recommended, with attention paid to the resistance level around 3000 yuan/ton [11] Cast Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 23,035 yuan/ton, up 0.7. The rapid increase in cast aluminum prices has made downstream buyers hesitant, with most of them maintaining rigid - demand purchases. Some enterprises have production - cut plans, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking is slow, restricting consumption. The supply side is relatively stable due to the limitation of scrap aluminum. In the short term, the macro sentiment dominates, and cast aluminum is relatively strong, but the poor price transmission between upstream and downstream will put pressure on prices in the future [12] Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated horizontally during the day and moved down at night, and LME zinc closed down. The spot market supply was limited, with high premiums. Downstream buyers were still hesitant due to high prices. The overall economic data in the US was mixed, the US dollar strengthened, and the enthusiasm of funds to go long cooled down, with the main contract reducing positions for adjustment. Fundamentally, the zinc - ore processing fee decline slowed down, and the supply of refined zinc increased month - on - month. Consumption remained in the off - season, and terminal orders were limited. It is expected that zinc prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [13][14] Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated strongly during the day and first declined and then rebounded at night, and LME lead fluctuated weakly. The spot market had limited circulating supply, and downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, mainly making long - term contract purchases. The US dollar strengthened, and lead prices adjusted with the reduction of positions in the non - ferrous metal sector. Fundamentally, the production of primary lead smelters increased slightly month - on - month, while the production of secondary lead smelters decreased slightly. The overall supply pressure was limited, and low inventory would support lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will remain at a high level in the short term [15] Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin continued to be strong during the day, once reaching the 360,000 - yuan line, and fluctuated horizontally at night, and LME tin fluctuated narrowly. Both at home and abroad maintained a wide - range expectation, providing a bullish atmosphere for commodities. The non - ferrous metal sector has been rising in rotation since the New Year. Fundamentally, the production of refined tin in January decreased slightly month - on - month, demand was in the off - season, and the negative feedback of high - price raw materials was expected to deepen. After the New Year's Day stocking benefits were realized, social inventory was expected to increase again. In the short term, the US economic data was mixed, the US dollar closed up, and Shanghai tin adjusted with a reduction of positions. Attention should be paid to high - level risks [16] Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded slightly. The supply side showed a marginal contraction, with the operating rate in Xinjiang remaining at around 90%, low production in the southwest region in the off - season, and limited overall increases in Inner Mongolia and Gansu. On the demand side, the supply of polysilicon was converging, and the inventory pressure of silicon - wafer enterprises was effectively relieved after production cuts. The production capacity of battery - cell enterprises did not show significant fluctuations, and the increase in silver prices was expected to drag down the production plan. The demand for components was weak near the end of the year. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 553,000 tons last week, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a relatively strong shock in the short term [17][18] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures rose. The short - term sharp rise in coking coal and coke drove the rise of steel prices. The supply and demand of steel were in a weak balance, with off - season demand suppressing and inventory reduction supporting, and the macro expectation was relatively positive. The supply and demand of rebar fluctuated at a low level and continued the de - stocking pattern, while the production of hot - rolled coil increased, and the de - stocking slowed down and remained at a high level. It is expected that the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and attention should be paid to high - level risks [19] Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron - ore futures rose. The supply side saw a surge in overseas miners' shipments at the end of the year, with global shipments hitting a new high for the year, and port inventories continued to accumulate, maintaining a loose supply. The demand side showed a slight decline in the blast - furnace operating rate of steel mills, and pig - iron production hovered at a low level, with low factory inventories. The short - term strong performance of coking coal and coke provided support, and the futures price was relatively strong [20] Coking Coal and Coke - On Wednesday, coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit and continued to rise sharply at night. The news that Yulin City removed 26 coal mines from the coal - supply guarantee list and reduced the production capacity by 19 million tons, combined with multiple factors such as positive macro - policy expectations, steel mills' winter - storage replenishment demand, and capital - sector rotation, drove the strong rise of coking coal and coke futures. However, the fundamental support was limited. Currently, domestic coal production has recovered after the holiday, and the inventory of imported coal is high, while the inventory pressure of downstream finished products is high in the off - season, restricting the upward space of prices. In the short term, strong expectations dominate, and prices may maintain a relatively strong shock pattern, but the risk of chasing high is relatively large [21] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the soybean - meal 05 contract closed up 1.74% at 2811 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed - meal 05 contract closed up 1.72% at 2419 yuan/ton. The precipitation in the Argentine production area has continuously improved, and the crop conditions in the South American production areas are good. Currently, soybeans and soybean meal are in a high - inventory situation, and the suspension of the state - reserve imported - soybean auction and the expected decrease in future soybean arrivals may accelerate inventory depletion, with tight - supply expectations providing support. The basis is strong, and the spot price is stable with a slight increase. Combined with the strong bullish sentiment in the commodity market, long - position funds entered the market, and the soybean - meal 05 contract broke through the short - term resistance range. It is expected that soybean and rapeseed meal will fluctuate strongly in the short term [22][23] Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm - oil 05 contract closed up 0.66% at 8562 yuan/ton. The production of palm oil in Malaysia decreased by 4.64% in December. Indonesia plans to confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil - palm plantations in 2026, which may disrupt production and push up prices. The US economic data showed that demand is relatively stable, and the US dollar index fluctuated and closed up. The market is waiting for the report's guidance, and it is expected that palm oil will fluctuate within a range in the short term [24][25]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.20%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.63% [2][3] - Over 3,000 stocks declined in the market, with sectors such as brokerage, insurance, retail, and CPO experiencing significant drops [1] Sector Performance - The electronic gas sector saw a strong opening, with Sanfu Co. and Heyuan Gas hitting the daily limit up, while Jin Hong Gas, Huate Gas, Silane Technology, and Yake Technology also showed notable gains [1] - The brain-computer interface concept remained active, with companies like Prit and Innovation Medical achieving four consecutive trading limit ups [1] Notable Stocks - Zhongke Lanyun opened over 12% higher, projecting a net profit increase of 367%-377% year-on-year for 2025 [3] - Yijing Optoelectronics approached the daily limit down, announcing an expected negative net profit for the year 2025 [5] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.59% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.44% [5][6] - Major stocks such as Tencent Music, Baidu Group, Alibaba, and Zijin Mining experienced significant declines, while China Shenhua, China Telecom, and China Merchants Bank showed strength [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.2% at 4077.72 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.63% [1] - Coal mining capacity expectations are tightening, leading to a significant increase in coking coal futures, which rose over 8%, driving up coal stocks [1] - The photolithography concept stocks opened high, with Guofeng New Materials and Prit (002324) hitting the daily limit [1] Group 2 - The rare earth permanent magnet and non-ferrous metal sectors experienced adjustments [1]

三只新股首日上市均高开，天数智芯高开31.54%，精锋医疗-B高开36.45%，智谱高开3.27%。 | < W | 天数智芯(9903) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 集合竞价 01-08 09:20:08 | | | | | 190.200 | 额 4.14亿 股本 2.54亿 市盈 -40.2 | | 万得 | | | +45.600 +31.54% | 换 0.90% 市值1483亿 市净 17.53 | | 型口 | | | 分时 五日 | 日K | 周K 月K | 电子 | | | 置加 | | 均价:187.905 盘口 | 成交 | | | 200.000 | | 38.31% - | | 0.00(0) | | | | 卖9 191.800 | | 0.00(0) | | | | 卖8 191.700 | | 0.00(0) | | | | 卖7 191.600 | | 0.00(0) | | | | 卖6 191.500 | | 0.00(0) | | | | 卖5 191.400 | | 0.00(0) | | 144.600 | ...

Group 1: Financial Market Overview - As of December 31, 2025, there are 13,617 existing funds in the market, an increase of 142 funds compared to the previous month, with total net asset value reaching 36.32 trillion yuan, up by 315.15 billion yuan, indicating a continuous growth in the fund market [2] - In December 2025, the returns for value, balanced, and growth fund indices were 1.14%, 2.71%, and 3.69% respectively, with growth funds outperforming value funds [2] Group 2: ETF Market Analysis - By December 31, 2025, there are 1,401 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, an increase of 32 from the previous period, with total assets under management at 6.02 trillion yuan, up by 329.58 billion yuan [3] - The median return for stock ETFs in December was 3.34%, while cross-border ETFs had the lowest median return at -3.50%, and commodity ETFs returned a median of 2.58% [3] - Stock ETFs exhibited the highest internal deviation in December, while commodity and cross-border ETFs had internal deviations of 2.35% and 3.34% respectively, with bond ETFs having the lowest at 0.61% [3] Group 3: ETF Strategy Insights - The main industry focus for the leading fund's industry ETF rotation strategy in December was on banking, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals, with a cumulative return of -1.70% compared to the CSI 300 index's return of 2.28%, resulting in an underperformance of -3.98% [4] - For the year 2023, this strategy achieved a cumulative return of 48.47%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's return of 19.59% by 28.88% [4] - The PB-ROE framework's industry ETF rotation strategy focused on automotive, beauty care, and agriculture in December, with a cumulative return of -1.23% against the CSI 300 index's 2.28%, leading to an underperformance of -3.51% [4] - Year-to-date, this strategy yielded a cumulative return of 25.47%, slightly above the CSI 300 index's 19.59% return by 5.89% [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For January 2026, the report suggests a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and steel industries, recommending their respective industry ETFs [5] - The PB-ROE framework recommends focusing on the telecommunications, agriculture, and transportation sectors for January, along with their corresponding industry ETFs [5]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the market is expected to focus on the allocation value of resource products, particularly copper, aluminum, gold, and strategic metals, amid a mild recovery in the global economy and expectations of liquidity easing [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance in 2025, with the non-ferrous metal mining ETF (159690) tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Index achieving a 104.84% increase, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous thematic indices [1][5]. - The non-ferrous metal sector recorded a 94.73% increase in 2025, leading among the Shenwan first-level industries [5]. - As of January 7, 2026, the non-ferrous mining ETF (159690) experienced a net inflow of nearly 58 million yuan over nine consecutive trading days [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Industry Dynamics - The global economy in 2025 exhibited "weak growth, high volatility, and multiple risks," leading to a divergence in major commodity trends, with gold and copper prices supported by safe-haven demand and emerging needs [2][4]. - The credit risk in the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to remain stable overall in 2026, but structural pressures are prominent, particularly for mid and downstream processing enterprises facing low processing fees and squeezed profit margins [4]. - The macroeconomic growth in China is projected to reach 4.9% in 2026, with resilient exports and gradually recovering investments, while commodity consumption may face short-term pressure [4]. Group 3: Profitability and Financial Performance - The non-ferrous metal industry saw a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter showing an even larger increase of 50.81% [9][10]. - The CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Index demonstrated greater profit elasticity, with net profit growth rates of 49.48% and 55.62% for the first three quarters and the third quarter, respectively [9][10]. - Key metals such as gold, copper, and aluminum account for 57.4% of the non-ferrous metal mining index, indicating strong long-term support for resource demand driven by energy transition and global easing policies [10].