Group 1: Financial Market Overview - As of December 31, 2025, there are 13,617 existing funds in the market, an increase of 142 funds compared to the previous month, with total net asset value reaching 36.32 trillion yuan, up by 315.15 billion yuan, indicating a continuous growth in the fund market [2] - In December 2025, the returns for value, balanced, and growth fund indices were 1.14%, 2.71%, and 3.69% respectively, with growth funds outperforming value funds [2] Group 2: ETF Market Analysis - By December 31, 2025, there are 1,401 ETFs in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, an increase of 32 from the previous period, with total assets under management at 6.02 trillion yuan, up by 329.58 billion yuan [3] - The median return for stock ETFs in December was 3.34%, while cross-border ETFs had the lowest median return at -3.50%, and commodity ETFs returned a median of 2.58% [3] - Stock ETFs exhibited the highest internal deviation in December, while commodity and cross-border ETFs had internal deviations of 2.35% and 3.34% respectively, with bond ETFs having the lowest at 0.61% [3] Group 3: ETF Strategy Insights - The main industry focus for the leading fund's industry ETF rotation strategy in December was on banking, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals, with a cumulative return of -1.70% compared to the CSI 300 index's return of 2.28%, resulting in an underperformance of -3.98% [4] - For the year 2023, this strategy achieved a cumulative return of 48.47%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index's return of 19.59% by 28.88% [4] - The PB-ROE framework's industry ETF rotation strategy focused on automotive, beauty care, and agriculture in December, with a cumulative return of -1.23% against the CSI 300 index's 2.28%, leading to an underperformance of -3.51% [4] - Year-to-date, this strategy yielded a cumulative return of 25.47%, slightly above the CSI 300 index's 19.59% return by 5.89% [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For January 2026, the report suggests a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and steel industries, recommending their respective industry ETFs [5] - The PB-ROE framework recommends focusing on the telecommunications, agriculture, and transportation sectors for January, along with their corresponding industry ETFs [5]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the market is expected to focus on the allocation value of resource products, particularly copper, aluminum, gold, and strategic metals, amid a mild recovery in the global economy and expectations of liquidity easing [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance in 2025, with the non-ferrous metal mining ETF (159690) tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Index achieving a 104.84% increase, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous thematic indices [1][5]. - The non-ferrous metal sector recorded a 94.73% increase in 2025, leading among the Shenwan first-level industries [5]. - As of January 7, 2026, the non-ferrous mining ETF (159690) experienced a net inflow of nearly 58 million yuan over nine consecutive trading days [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Industry Dynamics - The global economy in 2025 exhibited "weak growth, high volatility, and multiple risks," leading to a divergence in major commodity trends, with gold and copper prices supported by safe-haven demand and emerging needs [2][4]. - The credit risk in the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to remain stable overall in 2026, but structural pressures are prominent, particularly for mid and downstream processing enterprises facing low processing fees and squeezed profit margins [4]. - The macroeconomic growth in China is projected to reach 4.9% in 2026, with resilient exports and gradually recovering investments, while commodity consumption may face short-term pressure [4]. Group 3: Profitability and Financial Performance - The non-ferrous metal industry saw a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% in the first three quarters of 2025, with the third quarter showing an even larger increase of 50.81% [9][10]. - The CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Index demonstrated greater profit elasticity, with net profit growth rates of 49.48% and 55.62% for the first three quarters and the third quarter, respectively [9][10]. - Key metals such as gold, copper, and aluminum account for 57.4% of the non-ferrous metal mining index, indicating strong long-term support for resource demand driven by energy transition and global easing policies [10].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened down 0.59%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.44%. Bank stocks strengthened, with China Merchants Bank rising nearly 1%, while the non-ferrous metals sector weakened, with China Aluminum dropping over 2%. Tech stocks were sluggish, with Alibaba and Baidu both declining by more than 1% [1] - CITIC Securities believes that due to the internal "14th Five-Year Plan" catalyst and external major economies' "fiscal + monetary" dual easing, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to welcome a second round of valuation repair and further earnings recovery by 2026. It suggests focusing on technology, healthcare, resource products, essential consumer goods, paper, and aviation sectors [1] - Everbright Securities indicates that with domestic policy efforts and a weaker US dollar, the Hong Kong stock market may continue to experience a volatile upward trend. The overall profitability of the Hong Kong market is relatively strong, and assets in the internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are relatively scarce. Despite several months of consecutive gains, the overall valuation remains low, making long-term allocation cost-effective [1] - Dongwu Securities believes that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a volatile upward phase, emphasizing the need to maintain dividends as a base and seize the technology growth market in the first half of the year. Potential incremental funds from southbound investments will continue to increase allocation to value dividends. Considering valuations and the AH comparison perspective, southbound funds will generally increase allocation to Hong Kong tech growth stocks, although the tech market will still be influenced by overseas interest rate cuts and US tech market trends, requiring dynamic observation [1] Group 2 - Industrial Securities suggests actively going long, as the Hong Kong stock market is expected to start a spring offensive led by the Hang Seng Tech Index. In the medium term, the bull market in Hong Kong stocks will continue into 2026, with earnings and liquidity likely to drive the market. Changes in risk appetite may present a pattern of "rise first, then fall, and rise again" [2] - In the first quarter of 2026, the risk appetite for Hong Kong stocks is expected to "rise first" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific investment recommendations for different asset classes in January [9][12][69]. Report's Core View - After the Fed's rate cut in December, the market shifted its focus to re - pricing the subsequent policy path and liquidity. The domestic policy expectations in China are positive. In January, it is recommended to balance the allocation and seize structural opportunities. Long - term overweight is suggested for equities and non - ferrous metals, while precious metals should be treated with caution regarding volatility and can be re - weighted after volatility stabilizes [2][3][69]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. December Review of Major Assets - The macro theme of global major assets in December shifted from a single monetary policy expectation to structural pricing and capital transaction - driven scenarios under risk appetite recovery. Asset performance showed divergence [15]. - In the equity market, A - shares performed well, with small and medium - sized stocks and growth styles outperforming large - cap indices. Overseas, US equity indices were nearly flat [16]. - In the bond market, government bonds and US Treasuries performed weakly, with yields rising [17]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index weakened, the RMB was relatively strong, and the Japanese yen declined after the Bank of Japan's rate hike [18]. - In the commodity market, precious metals and new energy metals performed significantly better, base metals rose but with weaker gains, ferrous metals were generally weak, energy and chemicals were weak, and agricultural products had mixed performance [19]. 2. Macro Environment Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macro - The global PMI in November slightly declined to 50.5, but remained in the expansion range [23]. - US economic data from October - November showed weakening inflation, an increase in the unemployment rate, and stable consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone [24][28][29]. - Attention should be paid to the nomination of the new Fed chair. Different candidates have different policy stances, which may cause market fluctuations. The US bond market shows a "bear steepening" feature, and the US dollar is under pressure [30]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts. Japan's rate hike was not radical, and short - term liquidity may tighten slightly, but the expectation of overseas easing in 2026 remains [33]. - Non - US developed markets are stable, and emerging markets had a generally positive economic sentiment in November [34][35]. 2.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - In December, domestic macro indicators were stable. Important meetings set tasks for the "15th Five - Year Plan", raising market expectations for additional policies in the first half of 2026 [36]. - The economic structure showed differentiation, with real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak, manufacturing PMI rising to the expansion zone, consumption being stable and slightly weak, and exports contributing significantly to the economy [37]. - Social financing slightly exceeded expectations, M1 data rebound did not change the trend of activating funds, PPI was on an upward trend, and core CPI unexpectedly recovered, indicating an improvement in inflation in 2026 [37][38]. 3. Outlook for Major Assets 3.1 Equity indices - In January, policy easing expectations are likely to be the main narrative in the equity market. Domestic equities may trade in a volatile but generally stronger trend. Fiscal policy may front - load in 2026, and monetary policy may ease marginally in the first half of the year, providing a window for increasing equity index allocation [41]. 3.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In January, precious metals will enter a critical phase of speculation on the Fed's monetary policy path. Gold and silver are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend under the dual fiscal and monetary easing macro - backdrop. Attention should be paid to the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's policy path changes [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The macro environment is favorable, and upstream raw materials are tight, with supply disruption concerns. Although actual demand is weak, non - ferrous metals are expected to maintain a generally volatile but stronger trend, especially in the medium - to - long - term with supply remaining tight [49]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In January, ferrous metals are expected to trade in a range - bound manner. In the medium - to - long - term, "anti - involution" policies and export control measures may reshape the supply - demand balance and improve industry profits [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: In January, the crude oil sector will verify OPEC+ production cut compliance. Oil prices may oscillate in a low range. Geopolitics and supply - side factors will affect prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global oversupply assumption remains, but prices below $60 may trigger support measures [57][59]. 3.3 Bonds - Treasury bond movements in January may continue to be range - bound, with short - end performance relatively better than long - end. In the long - term, bonds have limited upside potential as inflation expectations may put pressure on medium - and long - duration bond yields [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on January 8, 2026 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 8, 2026, the domestic spot price was 103400, the LME spot price was 13135, and the spot ratio was 7.99. The domestic three - month price was 103600, the LME three - month price was 13121, and the three - month ratio was 7.91. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.94, with a profit of - 1162.96, and the profit for spot export was 30.61 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 24300, the LME spot price was 3196, and the spot ratio was 7.60. The domestic three - month price was 24370, the LME three - month price was 3242, and the three - month ratio was 5.46. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.35 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24140, the LME spot price was 3100, and the spot ratio was 7.79. The domestic three - month price was 24410, the LME three - month price was 3118, and the three - month ratio was 7.81 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 148450, the LME spot price was 18331, and the spot ratio was 8.10. The profit for spot import was 184.80 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17575, the LME spot price was 2037, and the spot ratio was 8.58. The domestic three - month price was 17845, the LME three - month price was 2080, and the three - month ratio was 11.63 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 8, 2026, the spreads for the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month relative to the spot month were - 1920, - 1730, - 1650, and - 1640 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 629, 1155, 1691, and 2227 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 55, 95, 140, and 150, and the theoretical spreads were 224, 355, 485, and 616 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 75, 125, 175, and 220, and the theoretical spreads were 232, 366, 499, and 633 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 340, 355, 375, and 400, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 321, 429, and 538 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 8310, 8840, 9030, and 9450 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1800, and the theoretical spread was 7346 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 1960 and 40, and the theoretical spreads were 505 and 796 [4][5] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 25 and 30, and the theoretical spreads were 108 and 248 (in doc 4) and 130 and 284 (in doc 5) - **Lead**: The spreads were - 85 and 255, and the theoretical spreads were 91 and 208 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 8, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - consecutive contracts) were 4.25, 4.24, 5.81, 1.00, 1.37, and 0.73 respectively, and for LME (three - consecutive contracts) were 4.07, 4.18, 6.26, 0.98, 1.50, and 0.65 [5]

隔夜美股涨跌不一，大型银行股回落拖累道指跌超400点，中概指数跌1.58%。港股三大指数低开，恒 指跌0.59%，国指跌0.43%，恒生科技指数跌0.44%。大型科技股集继续走低，阿里巴巴续跌1.58%，贵 金属全线走弱，有色金属股集体弱势，其中中国铝业跌超2%。三只新股今日上市，天数智芯高开 31.54%，精锋医疗-B高开36.45%，智谱高开3.27%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the non-ferrous metals market, particularly the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876), is attributed to a combination of long-term supply rigidity, new production demand, global liquidity easing, and strategic resource upgrades, marking a rare multi-dimensional resonance in the market over the past decade [5][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 7, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) saw an intraday price increase of over 1.6%, closing up 0.38%, achieving a four-day consecutive rise with a total trading volume of 82.93 million yuan [1][10]. - The ETF has experienced a net inflow of 140 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong investor interest [1][10]. - As of January 7, the ETF's total scale reached 1.019 billion yuan, marking its first time surpassing the 1 billion yuan threshold and setting a new historical high, leading among three similar ETF products in the market [3][14]. Group 2: Market Drivers - Macroeconomic factors include expectations from the Federal Reserve for further interest rate cuts exceeding 100 basis points this year, which could create a favorable environment for the non-ferrous market [5][12]. - On the industrial front, the Chinese government is considering tightening export license reviews for medium and heavy rare earth items, while LME copper and nickel prices have reached record highs, suggesting a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026 [5][12]. - Fundamental performance is strong, with four major companies under the ETF, including Zijin Mining, forecasting double-digit growth in net profits for 2025, with Zijin Mining expected to achieve a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [6][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, continued easing of liquidity and the ongoing interest rate cut cycle in the U.S. are expected to support non-ferrous metal prices, with supply constraints and increased demand from traditional and emerging sectors, such as AI and energy storage, likely to drive prices higher [6][13]. - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to the overall market dynamics [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a phase of consolidation after a period of gains, with expectations for continued upward movement supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and policy outlooks [1][2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index showed narrow fluctuations, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices experienced initial gains followed by pullbacks, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [1]. - Key sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment performed well, while shipbuilding, securities, jewelry, and education sectors lagged behind [1]. Group 2 - The market's attractiveness is bolstered by expectations of increased credit issuance and a supportive monetary policy stance, with a continued "moderately loose" approach anticipated [1]. - There is a prevailing expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain a rate-cutting cycle through 2026, contributing to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [1]. - The overall market sentiment suggests that the bull market in A-shares is likely to persist, driven by structural changes in corporate earnings and the emergence of new economic forces [2].

昨日（1月7日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格盘中涨超1.6%，收涨0.38%，斩获日线4连涨，全天成交额8293万元，ETF继 续放量突破上市高点！ 伴随火热的行情，资金积极抢筹！深交所数据显示，有色ETF华宝（159876）近5日连续获资金净流入，合计金额1.4亿元！ 值得关注的是，截至1月7日，有色ETF华宝（159876）最新规模10.19亿元，即规模首次突破10亿元，再创历史新高，在全市场同标的指数的3只ETF产 品中，规模断层第一。 【有色风口已至，"超级周期"势不可挡】 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（A类：017140，C类：017141）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业，涵盖贵金属（避险）、战 略金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把握整个板块的贝塔行情。 *机构观点参考资料来源：①中信建投2026年1月4日研报《地缘冲突再起，资源牛市延续》；②华鑫期货接受上海证券报采访时观点，详见2026年1月6 日发布文章《2026"有色盛宴"或仍延续，一季度有望迎来"开门红"》；③国联民生证券2026年1月5日研报《金属 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continued its upward trend from the second half of 2024 into 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 21.71% and 32.32% respectively, driven by mid-cap and growth styles [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The average return of equity funds focused on the A-share market in 2025 was 28.88%, with growth style funds outperforming balanced and value style funds [2] - Mid-cap mixed funds achieved a return of 41.99%, while large-cap value funds lagged with an average return of only 8.75% [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The leading sectors included metals, communication, electronics, and power equipment, with the metals sector benefiting from rising prices of precious metals and commodities [1] - The communication and electronics sectors thrived due to the surge in demand for AI-related products, while the power equipment sector was supported by the expansion of energy storage and new energy vehicles [1] - In contrast, the food and beverage sector struggled due to the poor performance of liquor stocks, the real estate sector faced downward pressure, and the coal sector was affected by falling coal prices [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook for 2026 - Fund managers are optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of a potential recovery in the real estate sector and supportive policies [5][10] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in cyclical sectors such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals, as well as in AI-related industries [6][11] - The potential for a "Davis Double Play" is noted, where cyclical and consumer stocks may see a rebound in profitability and valuation if macro policies strengthen and the real estate market stabilizes [7] Group 4: Fund Manager Insights - Growth style fund managers focus on identifying long-term growth potential in companies, with strategies emphasizing quality and diversification to mitigate risks [4] - Value and balanced style fund managers adopt a more conservative approach, seeking undervalued stocks and maintaining a diversified portfolio to withstand market volatility [13] - FOF fund managers utilize a multi-asset approach to achieve stable returns, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation and risk diversification [22] Group 5: Key Risks and Considerations - Core risks for 2026 include potential economic weakness in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions, which could impact global markets [6][10] - Fund managers highlight the need for careful monitoring of macroeconomic indicators and policy changes that could influence market dynamics [10][26]