昨日（1月7日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格盘中涨超1.6%，收涨0.38%，斩获日线4连涨，全天成交额8293万元，ETF继 续放量突破上市高点！ 伴随火热的行情，资金积极抢筹！深交所数据显示，有色ETF华宝（159876）近5日连续获资金净流入，合计金额1.4亿元！ 值得关注的是，截至1月7日，有色ETF华宝（159876）最新规模10.19亿元，即规模首次突破10亿元，再创历史新高，在全市场同标的指数的3只ETF产 品中，规模断层第一。 【有色风口已至，"超级周期"势不可挡】 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（A类：017140，C类：017141）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业，涵盖贵金属（避险）、战 略金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把握整个板块的贝塔行情。 *机构观点参考资料来源：①中信建投2026年1月4日研报《地缘冲突再起，资源牛市延续》；②华鑫期货接受上海证券报采访时观点，详见2026年1月6 日发布文章《2026"有色盛宴"或仍延续，一季度有望迎来"开门红"》；③国联民生证券2026年1月5日研报《金属 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continued its upward trend from the second half of 2024 into 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 21.71% and 32.32% respectively, driven by mid-cap and growth styles [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The average return of equity funds focused on the A-share market in 2025 was 28.88%, with growth style funds outperforming balanced and value style funds [2] - Mid-cap mixed funds achieved a return of 41.99%, while large-cap value funds lagged with an average return of only 8.75% [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The leading sectors included metals, communication, electronics, and power equipment, with the metals sector benefiting from rising prices of precious metals and commodities [1] - The communication and electronics sectors thrived due to the surge in demand for AI-related products, while the power equipment sector was supported by the expansion of energy storage and new energy vehicles [1] - In contrast, the food and beverage sector struggled due to the poor performance of liquor stocks, the real estate sector faced downward pressure, and the coal sector was affected by falling coal prices [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook for 2026 - Fund managers are optimistic about the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of a potential recovery in the real estate sector and supportive policies [5][10] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in cyclical sectors such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals, as well as in AI-related industries [6][11] - The potential for a "Davis Double Play" is noted, where cyclical and consumer stocks may see a rebound in profitability and valuation if macro policies strengthen and the real estate market stabilizes [7] Group 4: Fund Manager Insights - Growth style fund managers focus on identifying long-term growth potential in companies, with strategies emphasizing quality and diversification to mitigate risks [4] - Value and balanced style fund managers adopt a more conservative approach, seeking undervalued stocks and maintaining a diversified portfolio to withstand market volatility [13] - FOF fund managers utilize a multi-asset approach to achieve stable returns, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation and risk diversification [22] Group 5: Key Risks and Considerations - Core risks for 2026 include potential economic weakness in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions, which could impact global markets [6][10] - Fund managers highlight the need for careful monitoring of macroeconomic indicators and policy changes that could influence market dynamics [10][26]

Group 1 - Chile's central bank reported that copper export revenue in December reached $5.83 billion, representing a 26.3% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Chile is the world's largest copper producer [2] Group 2 - China's copper industry chain faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, in collaboration with copper industry chain enterprises, has compiled a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" to assist the industry in navigating these changes [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index)**: Maintain a volatile outlook [15] - **Macro Strategy (Gold)**: Short - term, beware of continued correction risks, consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [20] - **Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures)**: Expected to run strongly with a volatile trend, maintain a bullish view [25] - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: Continue to hold long - term strategies [27] - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: Market is weak, not recommended to bet on oversold rebounds; if there is a rebound, consider short - selling opportunities [30] - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Short - term sentiment dominates, steel prices may rebound further, but still need to beware of risks [34] - **Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke)**: Short - term trends are less related to fundamental changes, focus on capital sentiment and policy news [37] - **Black Metal (Steam Coal)**: Prices expected to remain stable in January [40] - **Black Metal (Iron Ore)**: Prices expected to remain strong in the next two weeks [41] - **Agricultural Products (Cotton)**: Be cautious of the risk of price drops due to capital withdrawal [46] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal)**: Futures prices have rebounded from lows, pay attention to state - reserve sales and customs policies; the May contract lacks a basis for continuous sharp increases under a bumper South American harvest [47] - **Agricultural Products (Hogs)**: Unilateral: Go short on near - term contracts on significant rebounds; Arbitrage: Maintain a reverse arbitrage strategy [51] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: If the MPOB report is not overly bearish and high - frequency data shows continued production cuts and increased exports, consider long positions on the May contract; for rapeseed oil, be cautious due to policy uncertainties [54] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon)**: Consider avoiding short positions for the time being. When the price rises above 9000 RMB/ton, consider short positions based on industry hedging conditions [58] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest a wait - and - see approach [62] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Unilateral: Be cautious about chasing up prices, and take profits on previous long positions in batches; Arbitrage: Wait and see for both monthly spreads and internal - external spreads [65] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon)**: The industry pattern may change significantly. Consider buying put options to participate in the market [69] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Unilateral: Wait patiently for opportunities to buy on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see [73] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: The market is sensitive to positive information, prices are expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing up [76] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: Closely observe short - term capital intentions, and set acceptable stop - losses when going long [77] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: Pay attention to supply recovery and demand improvement, beware of price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [81] - **Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil)**: Market concerns about oversupply continue to suppress oil prices [83] - **Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt)**: Prices expected to be volatile [85] - **Energy and Chemicals (Styrene)**: Temporarily treat the market as volatile in the short term [89] - **Energy and Chemicals (PTA)**: Short - term volatile adjustment, consider going long on dips [92] - **Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: In the capacity expansion cycle, maintain a bearish view in the medium term, recommend short - selling on the far - month contracts [94] - **Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The FG contract is expected to fluctuate between 900 - 1250 RMB/ton in 2026, recommend short - selling on rallies. Pay attention to potential supply - side changes [97] 2. Core Views - The US ADP employment showed moderate growth, indicating a mild downward trend in the labor market, and the US dollar index fluctuated [14] - Gold prices fluctuated and declined, the precious metals sector corrected, and funds shifted between commodity sectors [18] - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 14 consecutive positive days. A - shares continued to rise with increasing trading volume. Despite market concerns about regulatory cooling, the market still has strong momentum due to abundant domestic liquidity and a bullish pattern [27] - International steam coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend. Although there were news of capacity reduction in Yulin, overall supply was expected to remain stable in 2026 due to new mine production and weak demand, and coal prices were expected to be stable in January [40] - The BMI predicted that the merger and acquisition boom in the mineral metals industry would continue in 2026. Macro factors supporting copper prices may weaken, and short - term fundamentals may suppress copper price increases, with copper prices likely to shift to a volatile pattern [73] - US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased significantly, and oil prices fluctuated weakly [82] 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump plans to ban Wall Street from investing in single - family homes, aiming to reduce housing prices, which may impact private equity owners and homebuilder stocks [12] - US ADP private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, mainly driven by the service industry, indicating a mild recovery in the labor market. The US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [13][14][15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US ADP employment in December was 41,000, slightly lower than expected. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI in December was 54.4, higher than expected [16][17] - China's official gold reserves increased by 300,000 ounces in December 2025. Gold prices fluctuated and declined, the precious metals sector corrected, and short - term precious metals still face downward risks [18][19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Energy Secretary will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales. The US 12 - month ISM services PMI reached a new high in more than a year, but the employment market demand continued to cool down. The US stock market is expected to be volatile and strong [21][22][24][25] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded 14 consecutive positive days. A - shares were in a bullish sentiment with increasing trading volume. The market has strong momentum due to abundant liquidity [26][27] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 1.1 - trillion - yuan repurchase operation. The bond market is affected by commodity price increases. The overall bond market logic is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [28][29][30] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In December, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 13% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 10% year - on - year. Steel prices rebounded due to the strong performance of metal prices. Short - term steel prices may continue to rise due to market sentiment, but the actual supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly [31][32][33][34] 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Linfen market remained stable. The recent sharp increase in coking coal futures was mainly driven by macro capital rotation and news sentiment, with limited connection to fundamentals. The short - term trend is mainly affected by capital and sentiment [35][36][37] 3.2.3 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - International steam coal prices were stable with a slight upward trend on January 7. Although there were capacity reduction news in Yulin, overall supply was expected to remain stable in 2026, and coal prices were expected to be stable in January [38][40] 3.2.4 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The third - stage expansion of the Tonkolili iron ore project in Sierra Leone is advancing. Iron ore prices are expected to remain strong in the next two weeks due to the expected increase in iron - making water production and the low inventory of steel mills [41] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton planting area in 2026 may slightly decrease. The new cotton import quota policy has stimulated the domestic import cotton market, but the large inflow of imported cotton and yarn may impact the domestic market. Zhengzhou cotton futures may face a risk of price drops due to capital withdrawal [42][43][45][46] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 3.383 million tons of soybeans in December. China is still purchasing US soybeans. The price of domestic soybean meal futures has rebounded from lows, but the May contract lacks a basis for continuous sharp increases under a bumper South American harvest [47] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The sales volume of hogs of some companies increased in December. The hog futures market has a short - term high - level shock, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [48][50][51] 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.64% in December. Indonesia may confiscate 5 - million - hectare palm plantations in 2026. The short - term trend of the oil market depends on MPOB data and high - frequency data [52][53][54] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - An organic silicon industry meeting may discuss measures to boost market confidence. The price of industrial silicon followed the increase of coking coal. In the long term, the oversupply pattern of industrial silicon is difficult to change [55][56][57][58] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead price had a high - level correction, and the domestic waste battery supply was tight. The lead price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term [59][60][61][62] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc price fluctuated and corrected. The short - term zinc price may follow macro fluctuations, and the medium - term price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [63][64][65] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - There are rumors of production cuts by leading polysilicon companies, and the market is concerned about antitrust issues. The polysilicon industry pattern may change significantly, and buying put options is recommended [66][67][68][69] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The BMI predicted that the merger and acquisition boom in the mineral metals industry would continue in 2026. The short - term copper price is likely to shift to a volatile pattern, and waiting for opportunities to buy on dips is recommended [70][73] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A company plans to invest 3.688 billion yuan in a lithium ore project. The lithium carbonate market is sensitive to positive information, and prices are expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing up [74][75][76] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increased significantly. The nickel price has been strong due to supply reduction expectations, but be cautious when going long and set stop - losses [76][77] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to supply recovery and demand improvement, and beware of price drops when the capital enthusiasm fades [78][79][80][81] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased significantly, and oil prices fluctuated weakly [82][83] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile [84][85] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. The market is concerned about the impact of the new naphtha consumption tax policy on the cost of olefins and aromatics. The short - term market is expected to be volatile [86][87][88][89] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis was strong. The short - term PTA market is in a volatile adjustment stage, and going long on dips is recommended [90][91][92] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the Shahe area was stable. The soda ash futures price increased due to macro sentiment. In the capacity expansion cycle, the medium - term trend of soda ash is bearish [93][94] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Hubei market was stable. The glass futures price increased due to market sentiment. The supply - side changes in 2026 may affect the glass market, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [95][96][97]

专题：四大证券报精华 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 1月8日（星期四），今日报刊头条主要内容精华如下： 中国证券报 2025年12月外储规模小幅上升 国家外汇管理局1月7日发布的数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国外汇储备规模为33579亿美元，较11 月末上升115亿美元，升幅为0.34%。国家外汇管理局表示，2025年12月，受主要经济体货币政策、宏 观经济数据等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素 综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。 1.1万亿元买断式逆回购今日落地 中国人民银行1月7日发布消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，中国人民银行8日将以固定数量、利率招 标、多重价位中标方式开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（90天）。Wind数据显示，1月 8日将有11000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购到期。由此，央行1月8日开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，意 味着当月3个月期买断式逆回购等量续做，也是该政策工具连续第三个月等量续做。 规范平台规则 两部门发布规 市场监管总局1月7日消息，市场监管总局和国家网信办近 ...

Group 1: Fund Market Dynamics - The fund issuance market in early 2026 shows a significant increase in activity, with FOF (Fund of Funds) products becoming a focal point for competition among banks and fund companies [1] - Several FOF products sold out quickly, indicating strong customer demand and a competitive landscape driven by product transformation and channel support [1] Group 2: A-Share Market Performance - On January 7, 2026, the A-share market experienced a volume increase with all three major indices rising slightly, driven by sectors related to the semiconductor industry [1] - The market saw over 2,100 stocks increase in value, with nearly 100 stocks hitting the daily limit, reflecting a significant rise in market risk appetite [1] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,579 billion, an increase of $115 billion from the previous month, marking a 0.34% rise [2] - The increase in reserves was influenced by factors such as major economies' monetary policies and macroeconomic data, alongside fluctuations in asset prices [2] Group 4: AI and Manufacturing Integration - The Chinese government has set ambitious goals for the integration of AI and manufacturing, aiming for significant advancements by 2027, including the application of 3-5 general large models in the manufacturing sector [3] - The initiative includes the creation of 100 high-quality industrial data sets and the promotion of 500 typical application scenarios [3] Group 5: Hong Kong IPO Market - In 2025, Hong Kong's IPO market raised a total of HKD 285.8 billion, reclaiming its position as the top global market for IPOs [6] - The momentum continued into 2026 with new listings from domestic GPU and AI companies, establishing a strong technology focus for the year [6][7] Group 6: Commodity Market Trends - In 2025, major non-ferrous metals saw significant price increases, with London gold rising by 64.56% and silver by 147.79% [8] - Analysts predict that demand from emerging sectors like AI will drive a new commodity cycle in 2026, with industrial metal prices expected to rise due to ongoing supply constraints [8] Group 7: A-Share Dividend Trends - A-share listed companies set a new record for dividends in 2025, totaling CNY 2.61 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 8.75% [10] - The trend reflects a shift towards more structured and frequent cash dividends, driven by policy guidance and improved corporate governance [10]

| 代码 | 简称 | 预告净利润同比 增长下限 | 申万行业 | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | (亿元) | | 688332 | 中科蓝讯 | 366.51 | 电子 | 161.25 | | 688796 | 百奧赛图 | 303.57 | 医药生物 | 223.18 | | 002010 | 传化智联 | 256.07 | 交通运输 | 171.37 | | 603590 | 康辰药业 | 243.00 | 医药生物 | 66.59 | | 300620 | 光库科技 | 152.00 | 通信 | 386.88 | | 600983 | 惠而浦 | 150.00 | 家用电器 | 77.72 | | 600189 | 泉阳泉 | 147.89 | 食品饮料 | 49.92 | | 300505 | 川金诺 | 144.24 | 基础化工 | 65.12 | | 002709 | 天赐材料 | 127.31 | 电力设备 | 925.22 | | 002258 | 利尔化学 | 113.62 | 基础化工 | 112.94 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strength, with significant price increases in nickel, tin, and alumina driven by low valuations, supply disruptions, and rising demand [1][2]. Group 1: Nickel Market - Nickel prices are surging due to tightening supply expectations from Indonesia and increased market sentiment, with nickel being relatively undervalued compared to other metals [2]. - Recent policy changes in Indonesia, including a reduction in nickel ore production quotas and a revision of the pricing formula for nickel, are expected to increase production costs [1][2]. - The solid-state battery industry's rapid development is anticipated to boost long-term demand for nickel, despite the current market fundamentals remaining weak [2]. Group 2: Tin Market - Tin prices are rising due to supply constraints and continuous demand growth, with recent production issues in Myanmar impacting supply significantly [2]. - The decline in ore quality from overseas sources is also contributing to the supply challenges in the tin market [2]. Group 3: Alumina Market - The increase in alumina prices is primarily driven by low valuations and the impact of differential electricity pricing policies, which are expected to lead to industry upgrades and higher operational costs [2]. - Electricity costs account for 13% to 15% of alumina production costs, making the differential pricing policy a significant factor in market sentiment [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current lack of downstream demand for non-ferrous metals and limited acceptance of high-priced goods in the spot market may lead to a gradual adjustment in pricing through the futures market [3]. - The non-ferrous metal sector may face significant correction risks in the medium to long term, particularly for alumina and lead, while the performance of nickel is heavily reliant on overseas policy factors [3]. - The market is expected to continue trading based on macroeconomic policies and supply security, with stronger performance anticipated for tin, copper, and aluminum, while nickel, zinc, and lead may perform relatively weaker [3].

今天，亚太市场中有两大市场表现乏力，其一是港股集体下跌，其二是日本股市全天走弱。并由此导致 了A50一度下跌近1%。受此影响，虚拟币市场亦有趋弱的势头。那么，究竟发生了什么？首先，有外 资机构下调阿里巴巴评级，给恒生科技股带来了一定的利空；其次，有色金属股（特别是贵金属）集体 杀跌，亦成为市场杀跌之助力；第三，经中信证券测算，1月由于政府债融资、M0季节性波动、缴准基 数扩大等原因，存在一定的流动性缺口。然而，更值得关注的是大量结汇对流动性的影响。（券商中 国） ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the "government debt increment" in Q1 2026 is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of no less than 3%, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy approach despite being lower than the 104% growth in Q1 2025 and higher than the -33% in Q1 2024 [1][7][8] Fixed Income - The report discusses the current status of urban investment bonds in Fujian Province, highlighting that the supply side will continue to face high-pressure regulatory conditions to consolidate existing debt reduction achievements. This suggests that the "asset shortage" situation is likely to persist, with low interest rates maintained to ensure debt cost reduction [2][9] - Fujian Province is characterized by strong local financial resources and a smooth debt reduction process, allowing for a duration extension to over 3 years for investment strategies. The report recommends focusing on traditional urban investment platforms while selectively moving down to county-level platforms due to their safety margins from the debt reduction process [2][10] Industry Recommendations - Guangfa Securities plans to raise approximately 39.59 billion HKD through the placement of H shares and 21.5 billion HKD through zero-interest convertible bonds to support its international business expansion. The expected net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 148/172/196 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 53%/16%/15% [3][12][14] - Zhihui AI, a leading independent general model developer, is projected to achieve revenues of 7.9 billion CNY (up 151%), 15.5 billion CNY (up 97%), and 32.2 billion CNY (up 108%) from 2025 to 2027. The company is expected to transition from localized to cloud-based services, with an overall gross margin reaching 50% in 2025 [4][15][16] - Aotewei has successfully delivered optical detection equipment to a leading domestic optical communication company, with expectations of continued growth in net profits of 6.8/6.1/6.4 billion CNY for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [5][17][18]