| | 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年5月13日 | | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | 单位 | | | SMM 1#锡 | 262800 | 259600 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 900 | 900 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | | 长江 1#锡 | 263300 | 260100 | 3200 | 1.23% | | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -43.01 | -158.07 | 115.06 | 72.79% | 美元/吨 | | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | 进口盈亏 | -2373.05 | -9430.59 | 7057. ...

金十数据5月13日讯，铜陵有色5月12日在业绩说明会上表示，公司预计行业未来发展趋势如下：（一） 预计铜需求具有长期增长趋势。在未来能源转型与人工智能发展浪潮下，铜市场仍存在较大增长潜力。 首先是数据中心建设。大型数据中心的建设需求急剧上升，大量的铜用于电力传输、存储和散热系统。 其次是可再生能源领域。清洁能源技术正在迅速发展，如风电、光伏、储能等，不断推升铜的消费量。 最后，新能源汽车的快速发展也成为铜需求的重要驱动力。（二）铜精矿供应紧张，进口矿加工费下行 压力大。（三）铜材加工行业正加速向高端化制造与绿色可持续发展方向转型升级。 铜陵有色：预计铜需求具有长期增长趋势 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 12 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.77%至 78260 元/吨。中 美在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识及相关贸易协议，结果超出市场预期， 全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，美元指数隔夜大涨，压制了隔夜有色金 属表现，钱铜价维持高位小幅震荡。现货市场，高月差、高铜价背景下， 下游企业入市采购情绪低迷，大多维持刚需采购为主，静待交割换月， 现货成交氛围较为清淡。全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，铜价继续回归 基本面逻辑。目前铜精矿 TC 继续下移，冶炼厂产出后续存在下滑趋势， 不过冶炼端的原料压力虽然较大，但近期实际对产出的影响相对较小， 消费表现依然稳中有进，但高月差抑制了近期消费表现，铜价或继续维 持高 位震荡 。技 术上看 ，沪铜 短期维 持偏 强震荡 ，整体 运行于 74500-80000 之间，近期关注 78500 一线压力，建议区间谨慎交易。 ◆ 镍： 截至 5 月 12 日收盘，沪镍主力 06 合约上涨 2%至 126130 元/吨。宏观 面，美国 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数下降，核心 PCE 同环比回落，通胀 降温。外部环境影响下国内制造业 PMI 回落。 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/13 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/06 285 1063 116753 24922 -38.41 794.66 100.0 115.0 21.75 195625 86950 2025/05/07 260 1321 116753 21541 52.52 553.27 100.0 115.0 21.65 193975 86125 2025/05/08 225 1089 116753 19540 -252.05 750.12 102.0 116.0 45.82 194275 84025 2025/05/09 80 829 80705 19165 160.52 955.79 103.0 117.0 49.19 191775 82625 2025/05/12 -25 899 80705 20084 - 644.55 101.0 117.0 23.87 190750 82200 变化 -105 ...

| | 20250512申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | | | | | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏弱为主。 | | | | 镍： 可能短期区间波动运行 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产 | | | | 量。根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望 | 幅波动 | | | 巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关 | | | | 税谈判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来 | | | | 看，国内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 窄。市场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落 | | ...

有色金属日报 2025-5-12 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 国内黑色系商品延续弱势，铝价受影响走势偏弱，不过库存重新去化使得铝价短线企稳，昨日伦铝收 涨 1.18%至 2408 美元/吨，沪铝主力合约收至 19570 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量 58.3 万手， 环比增加 2.6 万手，盘面空头继续增仓，期货仓单 6.6 万吨，环比减少 0.3 万吨，总体维持偏低水 平。根据 SMM 统计，国内铝锭社会库存环比周二减少 1.6 万吨，至 62 万吨，铝棒库 ...

叠加矿端报价加速下调，锂价维持偏空运行【62000-63700】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 虽然英美谈判有结果、中美贸易谈判有结果，金价或有所调整，不过未来全球 | | | 高位震荡 | 购金力量仍较多，长期看国际秩序下美元信用丧失，去美元化是主力，黄金是 | | | | 未来秩序筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【770-810】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 关税影响各国经济，国内光伏需求有负面影响各国刺激政策将会出台，白银窄 幅震荡。白银品种属性看弹性大，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，操作上延续此 | | | | 前的高位区间思路对待。【8100-8380】 | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜精矿紧张持续，国内库存持续去化，本周交割在即，仓单和持仓对比悬殊，警惕 | | | | 软挤仓风险，短期多单继续持有，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77300，78800】 | | 锌 | 反弹抛空 | 海外锌精矿干扰增加，海内外库存去化，短期锌止跌反弹，但预计上方空间有 | | | | ...

关税影响好转 有色金属或继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-05-12 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | | | 英美达成贸易协议，中美亦开始正式接触谈判，全球贸易紧张局势有所缓解。美联储暂停降息，国内提出"一揽子金融政策"，均基本符合市场预 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 高位持续横盘 | 期。特朗普关税政策反反复复，关税影响总体上相对好转，但前期给全球经济带来的不利影响仍然存在，从4月进出口数据来看对中国影响有限， | | | 铜 | | 但后续不良影响仍可能会逐步显现。基本面上，国内库存降至低位，近一个月国内库存下降明显，带动了现货升水走高和盘面Back结构扩大。TC | 区间交易 | | | 77000-79000 | 持续探底跌破-42美元，虽受 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年5月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒4月16日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示, 2025年2月, 全球锌板产量为112.45万吨,消费量为110.79万吨, 供应过剩1.66万吨。1-2月，全球锌板产量为225.30万吨，消费量为222.75 万吨,供应过剩2.55万吨。2月,全球锌矿产量为98.40万吨。1-2月,全球锌 矿产量为196.398.3万吨；偏空。 2、基差：现货22870，基差+680；偏多。 3、库存：5月9日LME锌库存较上日减少325吨至170325吨，5月9日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少150吨至1903吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, demand has a marginal weakening expectation, but the inventory is at a low level. The center of aluminum price operation has a downward risk, and it is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. For alumina, the progress of new production capacity is the key focus, and the short - term price rebound space is limited, with an expected weak and volatile operation [2][68]. Summary by Related Catalogs Electrolytic Aluminum Macro - Sino - US talks have started, but the probability of reaching an agreement in the short term is limited. The US has multiple rounds of tariff talks with other countries. The US and the UK have reached a tariff agreement, canceling the 232 aluminum tariff on the UK. The US economic data is strong, and the Fed's stance is still hawkish, reducing the market's expectation of the number of Fed rate cuts to three times this year. China has introduced multiple economic stimulus policies [2]. Industry Supply - The supply side has little short - term change, with a slow increase in production. Future capacity changes will mainly involve small - scale restarts and replacement of production capacity [2]. Industry Demand - In April, the apparent consumption of aluminum increased by more than 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to April was more than 5% year - on - year. However, the high - growth demand did not boost market confidence. The marginal weakening of demand is highly certain. The photovoltaic module production schedule in May is expected to be 55GW, a 10% month - on - month decrease. The home appliance production schedule increases year - on - year but weakens month - on - month. The orders of photovoltaic aluminum profile enterprises have declined. Last week, the operating rates of leading aluminum profile and aluminum plate - strip - foil enterprises decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum cables increased month - on - month [2]. Inventory - The net import of aluminum ingots is expected to remain at a high level of over 160,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the bonded area continues to increase. The social inventory of aluminum ingots briefly increased after the May Day holiday, which is in line with the seasonality. Based on historical data, the inventory can decrease by 120,000 - 180,000 tons in the whole month. With the social inventory of aluminum ingots at over 620,000 tons at the beginning of May, it is expected to drop to a low level of over 500,000 tons next week, which is expected to support the monthly spread [2]. Trading Logic - The impact of tariffs on global aluminum demand remains to be reflected at the micro - level. The subsequent low - level social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to support the monthly spread. However, with the marginal weakening of demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and home appliances, pay attention to the consumption inflection point from May to June. The short - term strong supply - demand performance in China cannot reverse the annual surplus pressure. The expectation of marginal demand decline in the middle of the year remains unchanged. It is expected that the aluminum price will mainly fluctuate widely. To stably break through the 20,000 - yuan mark, the global annual aluminum consumption expectation needs to improve. To break below the 19,000 - yuan mark, the weakening expectation on the demand side needs to be realized. Since the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is still at a relatively high level of about 3,500 yuan in recent years, pay attention to the possibility of the off - season expectation being realized ahead of schedule from June to July, leading to a decline in aluminum price and a contraction in aluminum profit [2]. Trading Strategy - The actual impact of tariffs on the global economy remains to be seen. With the expectation of marginal demand weakening but a relatively low absolute inventory level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and derivatives trading [2]. Alumina Raw Material End - After the May Day holiday, the bauxite market had a significant price adjustment. Large mining enterprises revised the long - term agreement prices for the second quarter. The price of Guinea's mainstream 45/3 ore was lowered to $75 per dry ton (CIF). The bulk market also weakened, with the 45/3 ore quotation falling below $75 per dry ton, and some low - quality ore quotes reaching $72 per dry ton. However, buyers remained cautious. As mining enterprises and traders accelerate shipments, the alumina price recovers, and the rainy season in Guinea approaches, the procurement activities of downstream alumina enterprises are expected to gradually pick up [68]. Supply End - After the May Day holiday, the number of domestic alumina enterprises undergoing phased maintenance and production reduction continued to increase, covering regions such as Guizhou, Guangxi, and Shanxi. The total operating capacity decreased by 550,000 tons compared with before the holiday, and the operating rate was 78.2% [68]. Trading Logic - A news item last week triggered market concerns about alumina supply and pushed up the price, but the actual impact and real situation need continuous tracking. In May, both maintenance and restart of alumina production capacity occurred, and new production capacity will gradually produce finished products. Pay attention to the impact of the progress of new production capacity on the supply - demand balance shifting from short - term tight balance to surplus. The price of imported bauxite is on a downward trend, and the alumina warehouse receipts are still at a high level. If the maintenance capacity recovers, there is a possibility of positive restart. It is expected that the rebound range of the alumina price will be relatively limited, and it will maintain a weak and volatile operation [68]. Trading Strategy - In the short term, the alumina price is expected to operate weakly and volatilely. If the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged after the price rebound, consider short - selling. Temporarily hold off on arbitrage and option trading [68].