Economic Overview - In the first four months of 2023, multiple economic indicators showed a year-on-year growth acceleration compared to Q1, indicating stable growth in production and demand, overall stable employment, and the accumulation of new growth drivers [1][4] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 2.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to Q1 [4] Industrial Growth - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 0.9 percentage points [2] - Among 41 major industries, 36 experienced year-on-year growth, indicating a broad growth base [2] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 10% year-on-year, significantly outpacing overall industrial growth [2][3] New Growth Drivers - In April, production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles surged by 38.9% and 61.8% respectively, showcasing rapid growth in smart products [3] - The manufacturing value added of smart drones and smart vehicle-mounted equipment increased by 74.2% and 29.3% respectively, far exceeding the overall industrial growth rate [3] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of decline [7] - The average urban surveyed unemployment rate for January to April was 5.2%, consistent with the same period last year [7] Investment Trends - From January to April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 147,024 billion yuan, growing by 4.0% year-on-year, with a 0.10% month-on-month increase in April [5][6] - The focus on improving and safeguarding livelihoods, along with significant regional strategies, is expected to drive sustained investment growth [6]

工业增加值同比增速超市场预期 国家统计局发布数据显示，4月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，环比增长0.22%。全国规模以上工业增加值同比表现高于Wind统计的市场预期平均值0.9 个百分点。 5月19日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1—4月，多项经济指标同比增速较一季度有所加快，整体看，生产需求平稳增长，就业形势总体稳定，新动能积聚成长， 国民经济顶住压力稳定增长。 国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办新闻发布会上表示，4月份主要指标平稳较快增长，但也要看到外部不稳定不确定性因素仍然较 多，国民经济持续回升向好基础还需进一步稳固。 从增长面来看，4月份，41个大类行业中，36个行业同比增长，增长面超过八成。 付凌晖表示，"6.1%"的同比增速在去年以来的月度增速中是比较高的速度。今年以来，工业生产平稳较快增长，有宏观政策效能持续释放，"两重"建设、"两新"政 策激发内需潜力的拉动，也有产业转型升级、持续深入、创新发展动能增强的影响。 尤其是"工业转型升级持续"和"工业新动能不断壮大"两条腿走路。4月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长10%，明显快于规模以上工业增长。从行业来看， ...

Economic Performance Overview - In April, external shocks increased, but China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong advantages, resilience, and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [1][4] - The overall economic performance in April reflects a complex international environment, making stable economic operation more challenging [1] Industrial Growth - Industrial production showed rapid growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 6.1% year-on-year in April, marking one of the fastest monthly growth rates since last year [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced significant growth, with an added value increase of 9.8% year-on-year, contributing 55.9% to the industrial growth [1] Service Sector Performance - The service sector maintained stable growth, with the service production index rising by 6% year-on-year in April, the second-highest monthly growth rate this year [1] - Digital transformation and increased travel boosted information and business services, with the production indices for information transmission software and IT services, and leasing and business services growing by 10.4% and 8.9% respectively [1] Domestic Demand - Domestic demand expanded steadily, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.1% year-on-year in April, supported by the effects of the trade-in policy [2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% year-on-year from January to April, with equipment and tool purchases increasing by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [2] Foreign Trade Resilience - Despite a rapidly changing international environment, China's foreign trade demonstrated resilience, with total goods imports and exports increasing by 2.4% year-on-year from January to April [2] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 9.5% in the first four months, highlighting the effectiveness of diversifying trade partnerships [2] Employment Stability - The employment situation remained generally stable, with the urban unemployment rate at 5.1% in April, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3] - Policies supporting employment and entrepreneurship for key groups contributed to this stability [3] High-tech Industry Growth - High-tech industries experienced rapid growth, with the added value of high-tech manufacturing increasing by 10% year-on-year in April [3] - Significant growth was observed in aerospace equipment and integrated circuit manufacturing, with increases of 21.4% and 21.3% respectively [3] Future Outlook - The government aims to implement more proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, while promoting high-quality development [4] - The focus will be on strengthening the domestic economic cycle and ensuring sustainable and healthy economic growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial production in China has shown a stable and rapid growth in April 2023, driven by effective macro policies and a strong push towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Production Growth - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, marking a relatively high growth rate compared to previous months [1]. - Out of 41 major industries, 36 experienced year-on-year growth, indicating a broad-based recovery with over 80% of industries showing positive performance [1]. Group 2: Industrial Transformation and Upgrading - The trend towards high-end industrial development is evident, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 10% year-on-year in April, significantly outpacing overall industrial growth [1]. - Specific sectors such as integrated circuit manufacturing and optoelectronic device manufacturing saw substantial increases of 21.3% and 19% respectively in added value [1]. - Notable product growth includes 3D printing equipment and industrial control computers, which surged by 60.7% and 29.5% in production [1]. Group 3: New Industrial Dynamics - The shift towards intelligent and green industrial practices is accelerating, with the new energy sector performing well; production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles rose by 38.9% and 61.8% respectively in April [2]. - The production of smart products is also on the rise, with intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and smart vehicle equipment manufacturing increasing by 74.2% and 29.3% respectively [2]. - Industrial robot production saw a significant increase of 51.5% [2]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies have had a noticeable impact, promoting technological upgrades and expanding market demand, which in turn supports industrial production growth [2]. - Under the influence of equipment renewal policies, production of agricultural product processing machinery and specialized packaging equipment maintained double-digit growth in April [2]. - The "old-for-new" policy has also driven rapid growth in the production of electric bicycles and LCD screens [2]. Group 5: Overall Economic Outlook - The overall industrial production has been stable and growing, supported by the continuous release of macro policy effectiveness and the stimulation of domestic demand through the "Two New" policies [3]. - The trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green development is becoming more pronounced, with new productive forces being cultivated [3]. - However, challenges remain, including low industrial product prices and operational difficulties faced by some enterprises [3].

Economic Growth and Achievements - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen 99% of its 102 major projects and over 5,000 specific projects completed ahead of schedule [1] - China's GDP reached 134.91 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 31.42 trillion yuan from 2020, with an expected economic increment exceeding 30 trillion yuan during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The average GDP growth rates from 2021 to 2024 were 8.6%, 3.1%, 5.4%, and 5.0%, consistently higher than the global average [2] Industrial Development - The modern industrial system has made significant progress, with the primary industry maintaining steady growth and the secondary and tertiary industries contributing the most to GDP [4] - The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries grew by 7.7% and 8.9% respectively in 2024, surpassing the overall industrial growth rates [4] Emerging Industries - The "Three New" economy (new industries, new business formats, and new models) accounted for over 18% of GDP in 2024, with China leading globally in several sectors, including electric vehicles and renewable energy installations [5][6] - The digital economy's core industries contributed approximately 10% to GDP, achieving the targets set in the "14th Five-Year Plan" ahead of schedule [5][6] Trade and Export Performance - In 2024, China's total goods import and export volume reached 43.85 trillion yuan, marking a historical high and maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trader for eight consecutive years [7] - The export of mechanical and electrical products amounted to 15.12 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for 59.43% of total exports, with significant growth in high-end equipment exports [7] - Cross-border e-commerce saw explosive growth, with imports and exports reaching 2.63 trillion yuan in 2024, a 55% increase from 2020 [8] Regional Trade Dynamics - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with a trade surplus of 190.71 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a shift in trade dynamics and alignment with the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [8]

中金研究 4月CPI环比强于季节性主要受黄金、出行和进口牛肉价格带动，但同比连续第三个月为负，同时猪周期持续下行、以旧换新品类价格转跌，衣着与酒 类等商品、教育与家政等服务价格弱于季节性，表明需求依然不足。受关税、建筑投资不振影响，PPI同比跌幅均进一步走阔，环比-0.4%，PMI购进与 出厂价格走低预示PPI环比降幅或将走扩。虽然中美关税谈判较大程度上减轻了出口下行风险，但需求不足问题仍然比较突出，财政扩张支持内需仍然 是提振物价的关键。 点击小程序查看报告原文 金、牛、出行带动CPI环比强于季节性，但同比负增仍显需求不足 物价恢复要靠内需改善 4月CPI环比（0.1%）强于季节性（过去10年同期均值-0.1%），主要受黄金、出行、进口牛肉价格带动。 1)美国加征关税带来避险情绪升温，国际金价 大涨带动国内金饰品价格上涨10.1%，影响CPI环比上涨约0.06个百分点。2）关税下进口量下滑，带动牛肉价格环比上涨3.9%。3）清明和五一假期影响 下，旅游CPI环比上涨3.1%，继续呈现假日好于季节性的特点，出行中飞机票、交通工具租赁费、宾馆住宿和旅游价格分别上涨13.5%、7.3%、4.5%和 3.1%，涨幅 ...

单位情况方面。2023年末，全省共有从事第二产业和第三产业活动的法人单位17.4万个，比2018年 末（2018年是海南省第四次全国经济普查年份，下同）增加7.4万个；产业活动单位19.2万个，增加7.6 万个；个体经营户39.3万个，增加6.5万个。按行业分，第二产业和第三产业法人单位数量位居前三位的 行业是：批发和零售业3.9万个；租赁和商务服务业3.7万个；建筑业1.8万个。 资产和营业收入情况方面。从资产看，2023年末，全省第二产业和第三产业法人单位资产总计 88627.4亿元。从营业收入看，2023年，全省第二产业和第三产业企业法人单位实现营业收入34335.8亿 元。 海南日报讯（海南日报全媒体记者王洪旭 通讯员吴维朝）海南省第五次全国经济普查结果显示， 相较上一次普查，海南第二产业和第三产业单位数量大幅增加，吸纳更多从业人员；企业资产规模不断 扩大，营业收入较快增长，科技创新能力持续提升，劳动生产效率有所提高；产业结构优化升级，数字 经济发展壮大，区域发展协调性、平衡性不断增强，五年来海南省高质量发展取得明显成效。这是海南 日报全媒体记者日前从海南省统计局获悉的。 据了解，经过全省9000余名 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes that "consumption upgrade leads to industrial upgrade," highlighting the importance of both consumption and industrial upgrades as key drivers of economic development [1] Group 1: Consumption Upgrade - Recent trends show continuous adjustments in China's consumption structure, quality requirements, modes, and concepts [2] - In 2024, the proportion of service consumption in residents' per capita consumption expenditure reached 46.1% [2] - Consumers are increasingly demanding higher quality, functionality, brand, and experience from products, shifting from basic functions to more comprehensive needs [2] - The consumption model is transitioning from offline dominance to an integrated online and offline approach, with innovative consumption scenarios gaining popularity [2] - Consumer attitudes are evolving towards a preference for smart, energy-efficient, and health-oriented products, reflecting a shift from "no change unless broken" to "seeking quality and novelty" [2] Group 2: Industrial Upgrade Driven by Consumption - Demand is the strongest market driver, with consumption representing the ultimate demand that reflects people's needs for a better life [3] - Changes in consumer demand signals will gradually influence production, prompting companies to adjust supply structures and enhance technological innovation [3] - Consumption-led industrial upgrades focus on directly addressing final demand, leading to clearer and more efficient upgrade goals [3] Group 3: Key Directions for Industrial Upgrade - Three key areas for industrial upgrade driven by consumption include: 1. Intelligent development of industries, with increased demand for smart products driving high-tech manufacturing [4] 2. Green development, where the growth of green consumption accelerates the transition to green production methods and promotes the development of green industries [4] 3. Integrated development, requiring cross-industry collaboration to meet diverse consumer needs through new technologies and consumption models [4] Group 4: Conditions for Successful Upgrade - China possesses favorable conditions for consumption upgrade to lead industrial upgrade, emphasizing the need for simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides [5] - Enhancing residents' consumption capacity and ensuring sustainable consumption upgrade are prerequisites for industrial upgrade [5] - A supportive environment is essential for achieving a virtuous cycle between consumption and industrial upgrades, including improving consumption infrastructure and reducing market entry barriers [5]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 6 日 4 月 PMI 数据点评 外部环境对制造企业生产意愿有所影响 外部环境对制造企业生产意愿有所影响。4 月高技术制造业、设备制造业海 外需求下滑较为明显。4 月建筑业生产经营延续活跃。部分原材料加工业及 纺织工业景气度处于扩张区间。 4 月制造业产、需表现均有回落。2025 年 4 月，制造业 PMI 指数为 49.0%， 环比（3 月，下同）下降 1.5 个百分点；制造企业景气度跌落至收缩区间。 多个重要细分项环比有所回落，4 月新订单指数 49.2%，环比下滑 2.6 个 百分点，其中，新出口订单指数环比明显下滑 4.3 个百分点，实现 44.7%， 为 2023 年 1 月以来最低水平。4 月生产指数实现 49.8%，环比下滑 2.8 个百分点；原材料库存指数为 47.0%，环比回落 0.2 个百分点；产成品库 存指数为 47.3%，环比下滑 0.7 个百分点；从业人员指数为 47.9%，环比 继续下滑 0.3 个百分点；供货商配送时间指数为 50.2%，环比下滑 0.1 个 百分点。企业预期方面，制造业生产经营活动预期指数实现 52 ...

王青 闫骏 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 4 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.0%，比 3 月下降 1.5 个百分点；4 月，非制造业商务活动指数为 50.4%，比 3 月下降 0.4 个百分点，其中，建 筑业商务活动指数为 51.9%，比 3 月下降 1.5 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 50.1%，比 3 月下降 0.2 个 百分点；4 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，比 3 月下降 1.2 个百分点。 4 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 4 月制造业 PMI 指数下降 1.5 个百分点，符合预期。背后主要有两个原因：一是外部环境急剧变 化。4 月初美国对全球加征所谓的"对等关税"，我国外部经贸环境骤然生变，外需出现明显下滑，对 制造业供需两端形成较大拖累。这是 4 月制造业 PMI 指数出现近两年来最大幅度下行的主要原因。二 是季节性因素。3 月是制造业旺季，4 月制造业景气度会有季节性下行。数据显示，过去 10 年中，4 月 制造业 PMI 指数比 3 月平均低 0.8 个百分点。 数据显示，3 月新出口订单指数比上月大幅下行 4.3 个百分点，降至 4 ...