Group 1: Company Performance - Alibaba's entertainment segment reported a revenue of 22.267 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, representing a 5% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in Alibaba Pictures and Youku [1] - In Q1 2025, Alibaba's entertainment segment achieved a revenue of 5.554 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, with adjusted EBITA turning profitable at 36 million yuan compared to a loss of 884 million yuan in the same period of 2024, primarily due to Youku's profitability [2] - Youku's profitability is attributed to effective cost control across its entire industry chain, despite the challenges in the long video market [4] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The long video market is facing significant growth pressure, with iQIYI reporting a revenue decline of 14% year-on-year in Q4 2024, and Mango TV also experiencing revenue drops of 3.75% and 12.76% in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [3] - Advertising revenue has notably decreased across the industry, with iQIYI's brand advertising revenue shrinking from over 10 billion yuan in 2018 to around 4 billion yuan last year [4] - Despite Youku's recent profitability, the company still faces challenges in sustaining growth within a contracting long video market [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 23.13 points, a decrease of 0.68%, ending at 3380.82 points, with a trading volume of 461.29 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 167.77 points, down 1.62%, closing at 10186.45 points, with a trading volume of 691.11 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index decreased by 39.89 points, a drop of 1.91%, closing at 2043.25 points, with a trading volume of 315.82 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was less than 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 160 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Industry Performance - The breeding sector saw a significant rise, with the breeding ETF (159865) reaching a peak increase of 0.7% during the day and closing up 0.34% [2] - The breeding ETF has attracted considerable capital attention recently, recording inflows over the past five days [2] - The optimism in the industry is supported by improved performance of listed pig companies due to the recovery of the pig market last year [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a near three-year capacity clearance, which is the foundation for the expected rise in pig prices in 2024 [6] - As of April 2024, the number of breeding sows was 39.86 million, a decrease of about 10% from the peak of 43.90 million in June 2021 [6] - The demand side remains relatively inelastic, while the supply side shows greater elasticity [6] Cost Control and Profitability - Cost optimization in pig farming companies has significantly improved, providing support for performance recovery [7] - The average cost for leading pig farming company Muyuan Foods has dropped to approximately 13 yuan per kilogram [7] - The recovery of profit margins is expected to enhance the asset-liability structure of companies in the industry, increasing resilience during the cyclical downturn [4] Future Outlook - Although it is too early to declare a turning point for pig prices, the breeding ETF (159865) remains worthy of attention as it is at a low point [5] - If pig prices begin to rise again, companies are likely to benefit from the widening "scissors difference" between rising prices and falling costs, potentially exceeding market profit expectations [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a gradual transition of the pig cycle into a reasonable upward phase, driven by the initial effects of capacity reduction and limited short-term expansion capabilities in the industry [2][21][24]. Core Insights - The Chinese pig farming industry has experienced significant fluctuations due to factors such as African swine fever and policy-driven changes, leading to an increase in industry concentration but still remaining at a low level [4][21]. - The market demand for pork remains rigid, closely tied to the living standards of urban and rural residents, with the market size of the pig farming industry reaching 1.51 trillion yuan in 2024 [4][5]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand mismatch in the pig market leads to cyclical price fluctuations, with each cycle typically lasting around four years [5][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The concentration of pig farming in China has increased due to policy and environmental factors, yet it remains low, resulting in significant cyclical volatility [4]. - Pork is the primary meat source for Chinese residents, with the pig farming sector accounting for over 50% of the livestock industry's output and value [4]. Pig Production and Output Analysis - The breeding sow inventory has fluctuated since mid-2021, with a reasonable level reached by early 2025, while pig output has shown a downward trend in 2024 [5][8]. - The report notes that the breeding sow inventory is a leading indicator for future pig output, influencing supply over the next 10-12 months [5][22]. Industry Supply Chain and Price Trends - The pig farming sector is heavily influenced by feed prices, which have seen fluctuations due to global supply dynamics [9][10]. - The average wholesale price of pork was reported at 20.85 yuan/kg in early 2025, indicating a downward trend compared to the previous year [15][22]. Industry Policies - The government has implemented policies to optimize pig production capacity management, aiming to stabilize pork prices and reduce cyclical volatility [17][18]. - Recent adjustments to the breeding sow inventory targets reflect improvements in production efficiency and aim to maintain market stability [18][21]. Future Development - The report anticipates that the pig cycle will gradually stabilize as the proportion of large-scale farming enterprises increases, leading to reduced volatility in the market [21][24]. - Challenges remain for pig farming enterprises, including cost control related to raw materials and disease management, which will continue to impact profitability [21][24].

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine breeding industry is expected to see improved profitability in 2024, with a projected total revenue of 454.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.20% [1] - In Q1 2025, the industry is anticipated to maintain a slight profit status, with a total revenue of 112.02 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.24% but a year-on-year increase of 18.38% [1] - The average profit for self-bred pigs in 2024 is estimated at 166.86 yuan per head, indicating a significant improvement in industry conditions [1] Group 2: Pet Food Industry - The pet food sector is projected to achieve a total revenue of 11.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [2] - Notable companies such as Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Di Co. are expected to see revenue growth rates of 21%, 19%, and 18% respectively in 2024 [2] - In Q1 2025, the total revenue for pet food companies is expected to reach 2.9 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 23% [2] Group 3: Feed Industry - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with total revenue for 2024 projected at 155.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3% [3] - Companies like Bang Ji Technology are expected to see significant growth, with a projected revenue increase of 54% in 2024 due to higher sales volumes [3] - In Q1 2025, total revenue for feed companies is anticipated to be 35.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% as sales volumes recover [3]

产能动态优化，公司基于成本收益模型，实施"关停低效猪场+新建智能化基地"组合拳，旨在优化资产 结构、实现长期价值增长。这一符合行业发展规律的决策，若能顺利实施，将有力提升公司在生猪养殖 领域的竞争力，夯实主业发展根基。 在业绩与回报层面，公司近三年持续现金分红，用实际行动彰显对股东利益的重视。尽管未详细披露提 升主业业绩的具体战略，但明确将业绩改善作为核心目标，战略聚焦的决心清晰可见，这无疑为未来业 绩提升奠定了基调。 中证报中证网讯（王珞）5月13日罗牛山（000735）召开2024年度业绩说明会，以"聚焦主业、深耕价 值"为主线，管理层以务实姿态直面投资者关切，从战略定力到战术落地层层拆解，释放出企业稳中求 进、蓄势突破的清晰信号，为市场注入信心。 此次业绩说明会，罗牛山直面问题、坦诚沟通，从战略规划到业务调整，从成本管控到资源开发，均传 递出积极的发展信号。随着自贸港政策红利加速释放，这家扎根海南38载的农业龙头，或将迎来"产业 运营+资源价值"双轮驱动的新篇章。 2024年，公司营收虽有所下降，但利润实现增长。这得益于生猪价格回暖、养殖成本有效控制以及低效 猪场关停。这不仅体现出公司对市场变化的敏锐把 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance improvement of Tangrenshen Group, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 355.416 million yuan, driven by a 16.8% year-on-year increase in live pig sales volume and higher sales prices compared to the previous year [1][2] - The company is shifting towards a "company + farmer" light asset model for pig farming, which has become a new growth point for performance improvement [2] - The company has decided to terminate certain fundraising projects due to changes in market conditions and to prioritize light asset operational models [4] Group 1: Company Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 355.416 million yuan, primarily due to a 16.8% increase in live pig sales volume and improved sales prices [1][2] - The pig sales volume for fattening pigs reached 3.9106 million heads, accounting for 90.18% of total sales [2] - The company plans to further expand its "company + farmer" pig farming scale in regions like Hunan, Guangdong, and Guangxi [2] Group 2: Fundraising and Project Adjustments - The company has decided to terminate the "Pubei Meishen Breeding Company" project and the "Hainan Changjiang Daan Integrated 150,000 Head Breeding Project" due to unfavorable economic conditions and to enhance capital efficiency [4] - The company will redirect 58 million yuan of unused fundraising to the "Yaan Meishen Breeding Company Hongyan 9600 Head Breeding Project" to support its operational needs [4] - The company has postponed the implementation of the "Dongchong Phase III Pig Breeding Base Construction Project" due to market volatility and the need for cautious management [4]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 5.973 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.40% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY -0.077 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 60.99% [4] Group 2: Challenges and Responses - The decline in feed business revenue was primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices and changes in the structure of downstream breeding groups, with a 11.33% year-on-year drop in feed sales volume [2] - The company plans to accelerate customer transformation and adjust its product structure towards high-margin, cost-effective feed products [2] Group 3: Market Strategy and Competitiveness - The company has a strong competitive advantage through a comprehensive industry chain strategy, advanced products and breeding technology, and digital transformation capabilities [3] - The company aims to maintain and enhance its market share amidst increasing competition by leveraging its 37 years of experience in the pig farming industry [3] Group 4: Cost Management and Risk Mitigation - The company implements a low-cost competitive system and comprehensive disease prevention management to address the cyclical fluctuations in pig prices [5] - In 2024, the company plans to reduce the cost of fattening pigs by CNY 1.59 per kilogram and the cost of weaned piglets by CNY 46.34 per head compared to the previous year [8] Group 5: Expansion Plans - The company focuses on national expansion, particularly in regions such as Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Shandong for its feed and pig production businesses [6][9] - The meat processing business is being developed through a combination of online and offline strategies for nationwide coverage [6] Group 6: Research and Development - The company continues to invest in product research and development, aiming for a 100% coverage of the new breeding sow system by 2025 [7] - Emphasis is placed on enhancing the quality of pork products and promoting regional specialties to increase the added value of the pig industry chain [7]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In April 2025, the escalation of Sino-US tariffs put pressure on commodities, but agricultural products were relatively resilient, and the pig market was less directly affected. The far - end breeding cost was difficult to further reduce, and the spot price was stable due to the end of the seasonal off - season [3]. - In 2025, the pig slaughter volume increased year - on - year, but the pressure was not significant. The production efficiency of sows improved, but the overall increase in the number of breeding sows was limited [4]. - From May to June 2025, the probability of pig prices falling below the breeding cost is low. The feed cost is difficult to decline, and the upstream of the pig industry has not accumulated excessive risks [5]. - In the context of the expected increase in pig supply in the first half of 2025, attention should be paid to whether there are unexpected changes in the demand side. It is advisable to go long on pig futures when the price is below 13,000 points or buy call options near the cost [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Review of Pig Futures and Spot Prices in April 2025 - The escalation of Sino - US tariffs in April injected positive factors into the feed and breeding industry chain, with feed raw materials leading the rise in agricultural products [8]. - Pig futures prices opened high and closed low in April, and the 2505 contract made up for the premium to the spot. The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at historical lows, and the ratio of pig to feed on the disk is close to historical lows [10][12][15]. - In April, the price of 7 - kg weaned piglets stopped rising and adjusted, the price of fattening pigs fell, and the price difference between standard and fat pigs inverted. The price of feed oscillated and rose, and the terminal consumption improved marginally [17][20][21]. - The spot price of pigs in the second quarter is prone to seasonal strength, with an average increase probability of 62% - 82% from May to August in the past [39]. 2. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The inventory of breeding sows has increased by about 5% compared with March 2024. The prices of culled sows and replacement sows remained stable in April [42][43]. - The production efficiency of single - sow has improved, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. Pig slaughter volume in May 2025 continued to increase due to the recovery of sow production capacity and improved production efficiency [45][49]. 3. Situation of Listed Pig Enterprises - In April, the slaughter volume of leading group companies decreased slightly month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year. The sales volume of piglets of listed companies decreased month - on - month, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high [54][55][58]. 4. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - In April 2025, the price difference between standard and fat pigs rebounded rapidly, and the price of fat pigs was lower than that of standard pigs. The slaughter weight in May is likely to fall seasonally and is currently at a historical high [62][65]. - The slaughter volume in May decreased seasonally but was higher than the same period last year, and the supply of standard pigs in the market was sufficient. The import volume of pork and offal decreased from the high level, and the expected import volume of beef in the second quarter will decline month - on - month [68][71][74]. - The frozen product inventory rebounded slightly from the low level in April. The current monthly average profit level is at the historical median. In April, both purchased piglets and self - breeding and self - raising were profitable, but the profit level decreased slightly [77][80][81]. 5. Pig Futures Price and Market Outlook - In April, pig futures prices opened high and closed low, and near - month contracts were more resilient than far - month contracts. The pig index is at a historical low, and the trading volume decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year [87][88]. - The 2505 contract rebounded from the low level in April to make up for the premium to the spot. The near - month contract is priced near the breeding cost, and the far - month contract has a low premium in the peak season [92][93][96]. - The basis is stronger than the same period in previous years. Attention should be paid to the regression mode of pig spot and futures in the second quarter. There may be opportunities for inter - month reverse arbitrage [99][102]. - In May, attention should be paid to the possible slaughter pressure when the weight is too high. The market volatility in the second quarter is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the systematic fluctuations in the agricultural product sector caused by Trump's tariff policy [107][108].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of the agriculture sector with an "Overweight" rating, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry due to stable demand and strong policy support [3][5]. Core Views - The agriculture sector is seen as a defensive investment option amidst a complex external environment, with many meat protein and agricultural product prices currently in a recovery phase, suggesting potential for stable growth in leading companies [3]. - The report highlights that low costs are a core competitive advantage for listed pig farming companies, recommending a focus on firms with strong cost control or clear cost reduction paths [3]. - The report suggests monitoring specific companies across various segments, including pig farming, poultry, feed, and agricultural products, indicating a diversified investment approach [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agriculture sector underperformed the market by 1.02 percentage points during the week of May 6-9, 2025, with the index closing at 2,619.30, reflecting a 0.99% increase [14]. - Among sub-sectors, the fishery sector performed best with a 3.87% increase, while the breeding sector saw a slight decline of 0.19% [16][18]. Key Industry Data Pig Farming - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.82 CNY/kg, down 0.13% from April 30, 2025, and down 0.74% year-on-year [1]. - The profit from self-breeding was 84.33 CNY per head, while the profit from purchasing piglets increased by 9.92 CNY to 58.46 CNY per head [1]. Poultry - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of broiler chicks was 2.91 CNY per chick, up 0.34% week-on-week, while the price of white feather broilers was 7.45 CNY/kg, down 0.40% [2]. Agricultural Products - As of May 9, 2025, the average prices for key crops were as follows: wheat at 2,460.67 CNY/ton (up 0.19%), japonica rice at 2,864.00 CNY/ton (up 0.21%), corn at 2,292.86 CNY/ton (up 1.78%), and soybean meal at 3,300.00 CNY/ton (down 5.08%) [2]. Company Announcements - Muyuan Foods reported selling 6.573 million pigs in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.80%, with an average selling price of 14.66 CNY/kg [35][36]. - Shennong Development achieved a sales revenue of 1.533 billion CNY in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.68% [37].

2025 年 05 月 13 日 农林牧渔 产能环比增加，5 月猪价或稳定微涨 生猪养殖：产能稳定微增，猪价短期内或小幅上涨 价格端：本周生猪均价 14.81 元/kg，周环比+0.14%，两周环比-0.50%； 仔猪价格 647 元/头，周环比-0.31%，两周环比-0.15%。根据 iFinD 数据，本周猪肉批发价格 20.82 元/kg，周环比+0.15%。 供给端：本周生猪日均屠宰量为 17.34 万头，周环比变动+1.89%。 周观点：根据涌益咨询数据，4 月能繁母猪存栏量环比+0.96%，同比 +5.21%，上月环比数值-0.25%。部分中型规模母猪场布局扩产，本月 新增母猪产能略有增加，计划根据下半年卖仔猪或明年自繁自养卖育 肥猪灵活操作。据 Mysteel 点评，5 月份出栏计划较四月份实际完成 微增 1.22%，出栏压力增加不明显，散户和二育集中出栏所造成的影 响有限，加上二育入场托底，大概率月度价格重心上移，均价水平或 高于四月。不过终端需求无明显改善，阶段性拉涨动力不足，因此价 格稳步小涨为主。 家禽养殖：白羽肉鸡持续稳定，分割品价格大稳小落 周观点：据我的钢铁网显示，本周种蛋价格下行调 ...